Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 30 Jan 2015 08:47

Incidentally, the Washington-based Heritage Foundation will join the Delhi-based Vivekananda International Foundation, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the Tokyo Foundation, and the Jakarta-based Habibie Center in Bali, Indonesia, next week for a Track II Quad-Plus dialogue to discuss ways to enhance cooperation in defence, regional security and counterterrorism.

This is excellent news, especially roping in Indonesia into this group -- that is a master plan. Let us see the chinese access the Indian ocean bypassing the islands of Indonesia and still pick a fight with everyone in the region.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Jan 2015 07:57

China’s Domestic Dynamics: Implications for India and the United States - Cheng Li, Brookings

The Second Modi-Obama Summit: Building the India-U.S. Partnership [Through the Chinese Lens] - Brookings India

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 31 Jan 2015 09:45

Tuvaluan wrote:
Incidentally, the Washington-based Heritage Foundation will join the Delhi-based Vivekananda International Foundation, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the Tokyo Foundation, and the Jakarta-based Habibie Center in Bali, Indonesia, next week for a Track II Quad-Plus dialogue to discuss ways to enhance cooperation in defence, regional security and counterterrorism.
This is excellent news, especially roping in Indonesia into this group -- that is a master plan. Let us see the chinese access the Indian ocean bypassing the islands of Indonesia and still pick a fight with everyone in the region.

in the Track II Quad Plus, the word Plus is significant. There is no upper limit. Potentially other ASEAN nations can be added. That can be the beginning of an Asian NATO.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Jan 2015 13:42

Beijing to try to guage India’s response on South China Sea during Sushma Swaraj's visit - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI

External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj arrives in Beijing on Saturday along with the new foreign secretary S Jaishankar who served as Indian ambassador to China until a year back to deal with a new set of issues.

Informed sources here said the Chinese officials will try to find out how serious India is about any kind of involvement in the affairs of South China Sea {China cannot expect to be involved in GB and POK while expecting India not to reciprocate the favour. Indeed, under most of SCS is international high seas, common to mankind under UNCLOS}. China is still bristling over the US-Japan push into this area, which is surrounded by ASEAN countries.

"The US is trying to entice India into joining South China Sea politics. India should not fall into Washington's trap," said an analyst with a government-run think-tank here [Beijing], requesting anonymity.

China also wants to gauge Indian reaction to Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida statement in which he said Arunachal Pradesh is a part of India.{What is there to gauge? Would the Chinese expect India to give up its own land?} China claims Arunachal and regards it as disputed.

Swaraj, who will also lay the ground for a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in possibly April, has the advantage of being aided by Jaishankar with his deep back-grounding in Beijing. His experience in Washington DC as well as Tokyo raises his profile in China like no other Indian foreign secretary's in the Middle Kingdom in recent years.

Chinese foreign ministry opposed mention of South China Sea in the joint India-US statement. The two democracies had expressed concern over freedom of navigation and overhead flights in this sea area.

India's stance, said sources, is clear: China cannot expect concessions from India if it continues to arm Pakistan and do nothing to help India combat Pakistani terrorism. Besides, Chinese companies have begun investing in the disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to soften India's claims over it, experts said.

Swaraj may also have to keep quiet on China's persistent demand that India participate in the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar corridor. India prefers its own bilateral relationship with each country without Chinese taking the initiative, sources said.

Chinese worries about a US-sponsored front against it, which have grown since President Barack Obama's visit to New Delhi after he advised Japan to send air patrols over South China Sea to ensure freedom of navigation.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Jan 2015 13:52

devesh wrote:oh for a change..."Track II" might actually have some real content!

The Indo-US track 2, to my great surprise, had a lot of heavy weights on the panel. Check the video that I had posted in the India-US thread.

I guess the *official* track 2 has governmental backing. Also hear Tarun Das talk about some of the other *Official* track 2 that we have. He mentioned Turkey of all countries (Again a surprise for me) and he did not name Bakistan (No surprises here. We know most of the track thoo is sponsored by ISI/BakMil or busybodies from around the world).

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Jan 2015 16:17

New China-Myanmar oil pipeline bypasses Malacca trap - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China has taken a firm step to beef up its energy security by inaugurating a pipeline that will bring crude oil from a deep water port in Myanmar, along a transit route that will bypass the strategic Malacca Straits.

The first tanker that will offload 300,000 tons of oil is expected to arrive on Friday at Maday Island – a deep water port developed by China in the Bay of Bengal. From there, oil, mostly brought from West Asia and Africa, will be pumped into a 2402 km long pipeline that will stretch for 771 km in Myanmar and another 1631 km in China. A gas pipeline, next to the Maday Island terminal, already runs from Myanmar’s port of Kyaukpyu. China also finalised plans to establish a rail corridor from Kyaukpyu to its Yunnan province.

The strategic oil pipeline will service China’s two major growth centres — Kunming and Chongqing, an industrial hub along the Yangtze River delta. Both cities are pivotal in the development of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, the 21st century Maritime Silk Road. Kunming is one of the starting points of the Maritime Silk Road, because it connects with three countries belonging to the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) — Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos. Landlocked Laos in turn becomes the gateway to ports in Thailand, and a wider transportation network covering Malaysia and Singapore as well.

Significantly, the new oil pipeline bypasses the Malacca Straits — a narrow channel that connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific. The Chinese are concerned that their access to the Malacca Straits — the main channel of their trade and energy supplies — can become compromised on account of Beijing’s growing rivalry with the United States, and maritime disputes with neighbours in the South China Sea.

As oil begins to flow, the Chinese are also building a refinery in Kunming that can process 10 million tons of crude annually.

Part of the shipments received will also be delivered to Myanmar, says the country’s Vice-President U Nyan Tun. China and Myanmar have jointly funded the project, including the construction of the Maday oil unloading terminal.

Analysts say that apart from enhancing energy security, the construction of an oil and gas pipeline from Myanmar is driven by environmental considerations, as China works to limit carbon emissions resulting from its over-dependence on coal.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Jan 2015 16:49

Japanese air patrols over South China Sea would be ‘welcome’: Pentagon - Japan Times

The U.S. Defense Department said Friday it would “welcome” future air patrols by Japan over the South China Sea, where China is involved in territorial disputes with some Southeast Asian countries.

But the U.S. State Department did not appear to be in step with the Pentagon in encouraging Japanese involvement in such operations, which would create a potential diplomatic issue all but certain to provoke China.

The two departments were commenting on a recent report that a senior U.S. naval officer favored air patrols by the Maritime Self-Defense Force over the waters.

Such an operation by the MSDF “in the South China Sea makes sense in the future,” Adm. Robert Thomas, top commander of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet, was quoted as saying in a recent interview with Reuters.

The 7th fleet operates from the western Pacific to the Indian Ocean and is based in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture.

Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon’s press secretary, told reporters Friday, “We would agree with Adm. Thomas that those kinds of patrols and activity is welcome and will help contribute to stability in the region.”

“There’s no reason for China or any other nation to look at it any differently,” Kirby said.

But State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki stopped short of endorsing the reported remark.

“We’re not aware of any plans or proposals for Japan to patrol the South China Sea,” Psaki told a press briefing. “I believe they were comments made” by a Defense Department official.

We’re not aware of any plans or proposals for Japan to patrol the South China Sea,” Psaki told a press briefing. “I believe they were comments made” by a Defense Department official.

The United States welcomes “a more active role for Japan in ensuring stability and security in Asia” Psaki said, adding, “But we’re not aware of plans or proposals for new patrols.”

She said, “It sounds like reports aren’t accurate.”

China has already expressed displeasure at the admiral’s reported remarks.

Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said Friday that countries outside the region should “refrain from sowing discord among other countries and creating tensions.”

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Jan 2015 17:11

SSridhar wrote:New China-Myanmar oil pipeline bypasses Malacca trap - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Now this is an interesting view and we have read some version of this before. Even earlier I had this thought but let me put it down here.

While Malacca strait is a choke point and specially at Singapore, Isn't the whole bypass route going to be right under India's nose from around Lakshadweep to Burma and therefore very vulnerable to Indian action?

Isn't the port terminal a fixed point and therefore vulnerable to air strikes? Isn't the pipeline itself vulnerable to air strikes or sabotage during war? I see the same issue with a pipeline through Bakistan.

To me that does not sound any better than the previous dilemma unless India stays neutral OR China deploys warships all along the route to provide escort. For deployment far away from home ports they will need local support and supplies. They will need ports in Bakistan (Gwadar), Sri Lanka and Burma. Will Burma or Sri Lanka pick sides between US and China? Even then they will remain vulnerable to Americans operating out of Diego Garcia.

The pipeline makes sense on other counts but IMHO makes only a marginal difference in terms of energy security. Their safest bet is Russian and Central Asian oil.

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 31 Jan 2015 21:59

pankajs wrote:
SSridhar wrote:New China-Myanmar oil pipeline bypasses Malacca trap - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
Now this is an interesting view and we have read some version of this before. Even earlier I had this thought but let me put it down here.

While Malacca strait is a choke point and specially at Singapore, Isn't the whole bypass route going to be right under India's nose from around Lakshadweep to Burma and therefore very vulnerable to Indian action?

True, but this could be explained by China's dismissive attitude towards India (over the last 50+ years)as follows: India will not dare to take military action on such a scale unless there was an all out war in the Himalayas which China will be winning in any case.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Jan 2015 22:06

True ... and India will not block Malacca at Andaman end without an all out war in the Himalayas. It didn't during any of the past standoff along the LAC.

And neither will America apply the choke at Singapore without a war.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 31 Jan 2015 22:11

The only thing that china's attitude towards India reveals is that they are not all the bright in strategery as previously advertised -- only a country run by eejits would deliberately create a hostile neighbour out of a country like India for no good reason, and pretend that it is great strategy. China's entire supply lines into Tibet are vulnerable to an Indian attack on the North East (which is why the chinese are arbitrarily claiming AP), so any claims of China winning any war in the himalayas being one-sided in china's favour seems overblown, but I may be missing something here.

I am not saying India has these capabilities to challenge china today, but if the regime in charge takes things more seriously than the worthless INC govts. of the past, these capabilities could exist.

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 31 Jan 2015 22:15

As a follow on thought I should add that Mayanmar joining ASEAN together with its tilt away from China towards the West in recent years is a massive strategic loss for China relative to its long term balance of strength with India. Two reasons. First the ability of China to encircle India on its eastern flank, station military forces in Myanmar and have naval bases in the Bay of Bengal becomes difficult. Second India becomes a neighbor of ASEAN with a long common border and therefore ASEAN and their Western friends/allies will have some stake in India's safety and success especially with a rising China behaving with hubris.

However on India's western flank the story is obviously the opposite.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 31 Jan 2015 22:23

I am not sure ASEAN and western friends and allies can be depended on for anything, much less to assist in India resisting China -- ASEAN is "owned" by China for all practical purposes. India is on its own when it comes to dealing with China in the long term. Quad+ groupings could help put collective pressure on China if the chinese navy starts getting too aggressive, but India would have to develop capabilities under the assumption that it is on its own.

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 31 Jan 2015 22:25

Of all the major countries in Asia, only India and Vietnam have to deal face to face with the PLA, the largest army in the world. Japan, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan do not. Therefore, these countries have relatively greater latitude in what they can say and do about China. They can act brave and tough. After all they will not loose much real estate, except maybe a remote island or two, in the case of a war. If India lost a war, India could loose real estate. Over the years the frequent incursions across the LAC are China's reminder to India of this strategic disadvantage India faces relative to other countries in Asia. This is why the US is offering the M777 mountain guns to India to give India greater autonomy in taking actions that could happen to negatively impact China. Large numbers (i.e. thousands) of these guns could remove the dismissive attitude of China toward India as well as their incursions.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 31 Jan 2015 23:26

First thing is for India to improve its economic power significantly and get tighter with its immediate neighbours so that it can pose a real threat to china in a multiple dimensions at the same time down the line. Guns and weapons seem to be limited in their use, mainly as a defence from Chinese aggression on Indian territory.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Feb 2015 06:36

Kunming becomes first destination of Sushma’s China visit - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj arrived in Beijing on Saturday to insulate and advance a growing economic relationship with China, from the headwinds of competing geopolitical interests in the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific.

Ms. Swaraj’s arrival follows a high-profile visit to India by U.S. President Barack Obama. “The Presidential visit will not be the focus of discussions, but it is quite likely that the Chinese hosts and the Russians later would be interested in hearing about the visit directly from the visiting minister,” a diplomatic source told The Hindu .

The Sino-Indian border differences are unlikely to draw prime attention during the talks between Ms. Swaraj and her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

Significantly Ms. Swaraj routed her journey to the Chinese capital through Kunming — one of the starting points of the 21 st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) — a pet project of Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has invited India to join the MSR, but New Delhi has so far, refrained from making a firm commitment. Starting from Kolkata, Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, is also the point of termination of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor — a part of the MSR, which the Indian side is negotiating with the Chinese. However, India has become a staunch supporter of the China-initiated, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, which is also likely to be used for funding MSR projects.

Sources say India’s reservations on the MSR stem from China’s forays in the Indian Ocean, including Sri Lanka, which was visited by a Chinese submarine, and Maldives. The Chinese, on their part have resented the joint oil exploration bid by India and Vietnam in the South China Sea.

Modi’s China visit

Ms. Swaraj’s visit is also seen as preparation for Prime Minister Modi’s visit to China later this year. The Prime Minister is expected to visit Kailash Mansoravar, which has now been connected by a new route through Nathu La in Sikkim. After talks with her Chinese hosts on Sunday, Ms. Swaraj will confer with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on February 2. This would be followed by a meeting of the Russia-Indian-China (RIC) grouping, and a dinner hosted by Mr. Wang. Ms. Swaraj is also slated to call on Mr. Xi on Monday. Analysts point out that Ms. Swaraj’s visit is in the crosshairs of two competing trends —Washington’s charm offensive towards New Delhi and the deterioration of ties, following the crisis in Ukraine, of China and Russia with the United States. The Chinese are working feverishly to counter the accumulation of forces in the Pacific under President Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” by sharpening their nuclear and conventional deterrent. Facing sanctions, Moscow is consolidating its energy and defence ties with China in Eurasia, buttressed by currency swap agreements that allows payments in local currencies — the rouble and the yuan.

“Frankly the timing is perfect to test India’s multi-vectored diplomacy. New Delhi is in a good position to leverage its relationship with the United States to move into strategic areas of cooperation with China and Russia,” a diplomat said. The Russian news agency, Sputnik, is reporting that Moscow and New Delhi are considering using their national currencies in bilateral trade to reduce their dependency on the dollar.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 01 Feb 2015 08:36

China manufacturing shrinks for the first time in two years, survey shows

Chinese new year is in 2nd half of February, but most factories have already shut down, 3-4 weeks before new year begins. Some say this didnt happen even in 2008-2009.

There is marked nervousness among my Chinese colleagues over economy. Cockiness is gone. Most know it is India's turn now to record spectacular growth, but hate to admit it. Perhaps after Obama and Abe, Modi is most talked about foreign leader in the media here these days.

This is the time to negotiate hard with the middle kingdom.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 01 Feb 2015 09:23

This talk of spectacular growth before it has happened appears like taking orders for omelettes while the chickens are still feeding on the corn -- India has some recovering to do from all the bad decisions of the previous and earlier government. It has been barely a year since this new regime has been on the job, and they need more time to get things straight. China needs to hurt a whole lot more before they even think of bargaining, and for India to get the leverage in place to counter their shenanigans.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 01 Feb 2015 09:38

True. However, it is not always only hard numbers that count. Perception and sentiment play huge role, momentum is on India's side on these fronts. We first need to start believing in ourselves that spectacular growth is on the way. Healthy skepticism in self is good, but hardly an asset during negotiations.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Feb 2015 10:31

Chinese Army's Call For Commanders to Obey Xi Signals Tensions
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -s-command
( All is not Well in Commi Well)

- China’s military must “resolutely obey” orders from President Xi Jinping, a commentary on the PLA Daily website said, a sign Xi is seeking to quell possible dissent as his anti-graft probe penetrates deeper into the armed forces.“Adherence to the Party’s absolute leadership is a founding principle of the army,” said the commentary published Wednesday on the website of the People’s Liberation Army. All officers and soldiers should “resolutely obey” the Communist Party and Central Military Commission Chairman’s orders. Xi heads the party and the CMC, the highest military body.Publication of the commentary comes two weeks after 16 People’s Liberation Army generals were put under investigation for graft as Xi seeks to root out corruption that he says undermines combat readiness.“There must have been a lot of grumbling in the PLA,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. “It underscores that there must have been some friction between Xi and some leaders. Otherwise they wouldn’t need a front page commentary.”Representatives of the military participated for the first time in the annual plenary session of the party’s top disciplinary agency, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, earlier this month, according to the official WeChat account of the People’s Daily.At a recent internal meeting with senior military officials, Xi urged top PLA officers to set an example for both the military and the public.“We should be self-disciplined,” Xi was quoted as saying on the official WeChat account. “If we ourselves indulge in indiscreet activities, how can we demand others to discipline themselves?”Xu Caihou, a former vice chairman of the CMC, was expelled from the party last June. That marked the highest-level military graft probe since 1949. His case has been handed over to military prosecutors.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Feb 2015 17:08

Sushma unveils six-point plan to realise ‘Asian Century’ dream - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

India has unveiled an ambitious agenda to elevate its ties with China, with External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj announcing a six-point proposal to jointly realise with Beijing, the dream of an “Asian Century”. In her first engagement of the morning in the Chinese capital, Ms. Swaraj said at the inaugural of the Second India-China Media Forum that a six-point template can enrich the civilizations of India and China in the modern era, resulting in the realisation of an “Asian Century”.

Listing out the proposals in alphabetical order A-F, Ms. Swaraj stressed that New Delhi-Beijing ties can reach the next level if both sides enforce an “action- oriented approach and a broad-based bilateral engagement”. She asserted that the two countries need to achieve “convergence on common regional and global interests” and “develop new areas of cooperation”. The two sides needed to “expand strategic communication” and “fulfil the common aspiration to usher and ‘Asian Century’,” Ms. Swaraj observed.

The visiting Minister announced that on the “boundary question” - an irritant in the relationship that triggered the 1962, Sino-Indian war - “my government is committed to exploring an early settlement”. Ms. Swaraj, who arrived in Beijing on Saturday night, after a stopover in Kunming, one of the starting points of the China’s Maritime Silk Road initiative and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor, also observed that the foundation had been laid to take the Sino-Indian “economic cooperation to a qualitatively new level”.

On its part, China acknowledged the Sino-Indian relations had entered a new period of “major-country relations,” a nuanced formulation reserved to describe Beijing’s ties with regional and global heavyweights, including the United States. Also speaking at the media-forum inaugural, China’s Jiang Jianguo, minister of state council information office quoted former leader Deng Xiaoping as saying that “only when China and India have developed will a real ‘century of Asia’ will emerge.” He substantiated Beijing’s aspirations by inviting India to participate in the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 set century Maritime Silk Road—President Xi’s pet project to achieve Eurasian economic integration, based on a land and sea transportation network, complemented by a grid off energy pipelines, fiber-optic highways, industrial parks and smart cities. “With the ‘belt and road’ initiatives as wings, China wants to take off together with the countries involved,” said Mr. Jiang. India has so far backed the BCIM proposal that would connect Kolkata with Kunming-the capital of Yunnan province, which is the gateway to three ASEAN countries: Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. New Delhi also hosted a meeting of chief negotiators of the Asian Investment and Infrastructure Bank, signalling India’s full support to a China backed initiative that is likely to help support President Xi’s Silk Road projects.

Yet, China’s forays in the Indian Ocean, including Sri Lanka and Maldives, are impeding New Delhi full support for the MSR. “Our strategic dialogue with China has to broaden and deepen to address these concerns,” a diplomatic source told The Hindu. In her address Ms. Swaraj promised “to make it easier” for Chinese companies to do business in India, citing the establishment of two China-backed industrial parks in India, as an illustration of Bejing’s support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” initiative to spur the manufacturing sector in India.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 01 Feb 2015 18:24

China is placing key generals on India border near Ladakh
Nine officers with operational responsibility for the Sino-Indian border in the Lanzhou Military Region have been promoted from senior colonels to major generals in January.
JAYADEVA RANADE New Delhi | 31st Jan 2015

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to visit Beijing to build bilateral relations and explore additional economic opportunities, it is the right time to analyse China's ambitions and intentions. The unceasing intrusions by Chinese troops especially in the Ladakh sector are one area that merit attention.

Pertinent are the intrusions by Chinese troops especially in the Depsang plains just days prior to the visit of Premier Li Keqiang in April 2013, and in the Chumar area of Ladakh last September. The latter, very unusually, broke with pattern and continued throughout Chinese President Xi Jinping's stay in India and for many days thereafter. Some observers at the time sought to suggest that either these were solitary actions by a local commander, or that Xi Jinping's control over the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is lax. While credible reports clearly indicated that the actions were planned and deliberate in both cases, additional confirmation is available from the latest round of promotions in the PLA.

The recently announced promotions in the PLA not only further consolidate Xi Jinping's grip over the PLA as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, but are also of relevance to India. Nine officers in the Lanzhou Military Region, which along with the Chengdu Military Region has operational responsibility for the Sino-Indian border, made the significant jump from senior colonel to the rank of major general on 12 January 2015.

Among them, the promotions of particular significance for India are the appointments of Hālǐmùlātí Ābùdōurèhémàn as Deputy Commander of the Southern Xinjiang Military District; Liu Lin, as Chief of Staff of the Southern Xinjiang Military District; and Zhang Limin, as Director of the Political Department of the Southern Xinjiang Military District. All are from the Southern Xinjiang Military District, which exercises front-line responsibility and jurisdiction over the Hetian and Ali Military Sub-Districts.

The Hetian Military Sub-District (MSD) has front-line responsibility and jurisdiction over the areas of Daulet Beg Oldi and the Depsang Plains. The PLA's Ali Military Sub-District (MSD) includes the three Chinese counties of Ritu (Rutok), Gar (Gartok) and Zhada (Tsamda). Chusul and the Indian portion of Pangong Lake are opposite Ritu (Rutok) County, Indian Demchok is opposite Gar (Gartok) County and Chumar and the Shipkila Pass are opposite Zhada (Tsamda) County. The commanders of the Hetian and Ali MSDs both hold the rank of senior colonel in the PLA. The commander of the Hetian MSD is Senior Colonel Kuang Dewang and the commander of the Ali MSD is Senior Colonel Liu Geping. The two have been in position since at least late 2013 and, as senior colonels are on the verge of the big promotion to the rank of major general.

Both the Hetian MSD and Ali MSD report to the South Xinjiang Military District based in Kashgar, which, in turn, reports directly to the Lanzhou Military Region Headquarters. Their action orders come from Lanzhou, via Kashgar, where the generals are based. At least as far as the border with India is concerned, the South Xinjiang Military District does not channel its reporting through the Xinjiang Military District headquartered in Urumqi.

The commander of the South Xinjiang Military District, presently, is 55-year-old Lt Gen Li Haiyang. He assumed command between late December 2013 and early January 2014. Li Haiyang spent six months in 2003-2004 studying in a Russian military institute and later, in mid-2010 after only six months as chief of staff in the South Xinjiang Military District, Li Haiyang was suddenly transferred to the PLA's General Staff Department (GSD) in Beijing as director of its Combat Rapid Response Office. After two years in this post, he returned to his previous job as chief of staff in the South Xinjiang Military District. This experience makes him an officer who is known, and probably trusted, in Beijing and Lanzhou. He additionally has the requisite experience and knowledge about rapid troop deployments.

A map showing China’s military region boundary. Source: Chinareport.com
Maj Gen Zhang Jiansheng, Li Haiyang's predecessor, was promoted and posted as a deputy commander of the Lanzhou Military Region. He was the first officer from the South Xinjiang Military District in the last 22 years to be promoted directly to Lanzhou. He was also commander of the Ali MSD a decade ago. He can be expected to oversee all matters concerning the South Xinjiang Military District (including the Hetian and Ali MSDs) on behalf of Lanzhou Headquarters.

It is interesting too that the South Xinjiang Military District now has one lieutenant general and seven officers of the rank of major general posted at its headquarters. A few other indicators point to Beijing's increased interest in the Sino-India border. One is the upgrading of China's defence attaché in Delhi to the rank of major general, with effect from January 2015. Of the 113 countries where China has defence attaché, it has posted Major Generals only in 12.

These appointments suggest Beijing's increased interest in the Sino-Indian border and consequent growing importance of the South Xinjiang Military District. This was substantiated by an article in the influential Communist Youth League (CYL) newspaper Zhongguo Qingnian Bao on 14 May 2013, which implicitly laid claim to Ladakh and described it as part of Tibet.

Jayadeva Ranade is a former Additional Secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India and is president of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 02 Feb 2015 00:18

Modi to visit China in May

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China in May, the foreign minister said Sunday during her own three-day visit to Beijing.

"Mr. Modi is going to come in May. I will give them dates today. This is a preparatory visit," Sushma Swaraj told Indian reporters in Beijing, according to the Press Trust of India (PTI) news agency.

Swaraj is holding three-way talks with her Chinese and Russian counterparts during the trip, her first official visit since she took office last year.

US president Barack Obama last week paid a high-profile visit to India aimed at bolstering ties between the two countries, which share an interest in curbing China's growing regional influence.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 02 Feb 2015 02:22

It looks like the US visit and the Agni V test firing are being used to bolster our position during border talks and in the three way talks. Doval won't seed an inch of land to the Chinese.

I had a thought yesterday. Former NSA SSM and perhaps Doval may have given indications to the Chinese leadership that if a non preemptive (from our side) were to occur with the Pakistan, the Chinese would also be targeted. This will make them a stakeholder in the break up of Pakistan. In return, we will allow them to bypass the Malacca straits by allowing them to transport goods and oil through Myanmar. If we can give some sort of autonomy to Balochis and secure their coastline we may also be able to allow for the construction of a corridor through former Pakistan as well.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 Feb 2015 05:56

when Modi visits China, our Arihant should be in South China sea (perhaps exercise with Japan), and IA in Arunachal Pradesh about 2M of them on an exercise. One of the Akula class on exercise near chabahar!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Feb 2015 06:44

SaiK wrote:when Modi visits China, our Arihant should be in South China sea (perhaps exercise with Japan), and IA in Arunachal Pradesh about 2M of them on an exercise. One of the Akula class on exercise near chabahar!

And we must punish Paki by hundreds at same time to send the message that Indians will punish at will regardless of so called promise of Protection to Paki by PRC Khaki.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 02 Feb 2015 07:44

PRC will come to the table on border settlement that is amicable to Indian interests only after Pak is further split. Right now they have a vested interest in the Aksai Chin region for connectivity to Pak and as a pressure point on India. PRC is unlikely to get into any serious action in the eastern sector (AP). They know it is not a winnable one and with little return for them for the effort it will take to hold it. The very reason they withdrew unilaterally in '62.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 02 Feb 2015 09:25

The secret will also to categorically call Tibet and Xinjiang disputed territory.

I doubt if the Indian govt will go that far though. But that is surely necessary. Both the places are water heads and the sources of scores of rivers and China moving there to be a hydra (headed) hegemon was a move which wasn't questioned at that time and is given more as a fait accompli for the world today.

Question that outcome. Change it for the better. Unless that's done, Aksai Chin etc are interesting but minimal. Tibet. If that's solved, most will not even come into question.
If Tibet and Xinjiang are restored to the earlier standard, we wont even have a border with China. Doh. That's how it was and that's how it has to be.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Feb 2015 11:40

Good US-India relations no threat to China: Obama - PTI, ToI

Surprised at the Chinese reaction over his visit to India, US President Barack Obama has said there is no reason for Beijing to be threatened by a good relationship between New Delhi and Washington.

"I was surprised when I heard that the Chinese government had put out these statements. China doesn't need to be threatened because we have good relations with India," Obama told Fareed Zakaria's GPS, a popular CNN Sunday talk show.

In his interview, which was taped in New Delhi on January 27, the last day of his three-day India trip, Obama referred to his November visit to China and said he had some very successful meetings with his Chinese counterpart.

"My belief is that in this moment in history, there's an opportunity to create a win-win formula in which all countries are abiding by a common set of rules and standards and we're focused on lifting up prosperity for our people, not at the expense of others, but together with each other. That's what my discussions with Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi have focused on," Obama said.

"But what we've said since the start of my term in office is China's growth shouldn't be at the expense of other folks. It shouldn't bully small countries like Vietnam or Philippines around maritime issues, but try to resolve those peacefully in accordance with international law. It shouldn't manipulate its currencies to get itself trading advantages that others don't have," Obama asserted.

"Sometimes we've been successful in getting a response from China on those issues. Sometimes less so. I care deeply about China's success. I want to make sure that we continue to maintain a constructive relationship," he said.

"There's no doubt that there are aspects of India that make us closer to India. Specifically, it's a democracy and it reflects the values and aspirations as well as some of the warts of our own country in a way that China could not. And so that I think there's an affinity there that I feel personally and I think the American people feel as well," Obama said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Feb 2015 13:34

‘Out of box’ solution for border problem planned as PM Narendra Modi prepares to visit China; Mansarovar route confirmed - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China by May 26 this year, that is, before the BJP-led government completes one year in office, minister of external affairs Sushma Swaraj here on Sunday.

On her first visit to China as foreign minister, Swaraj also said India remains committed to an "early settlement" of the border issues, even as sources said the two neighbours have begun working on a slew of agreements to reduce differences on all other outstanding issues.

The agreements are likely to be finalized during Modi's visit to Beijing with the two sides also reaching an agreement on an additional route to Mansarovar, a Hindu pilgrimage in Tibet.

"The two countries have strong leaders. They are also keen on an out-of-box solution," Swaraj told reporters after meeting top Chinese functionaries including foreign minister Wang Yi on Sunday.

"We want it to be an action-oriented visit," Swaraj added. The two countries have formed a contact group to "identify issues" that will come up during the Prime Minister's visit. The purpose is to narrow down areas of differences. The visit will be preceded by a meeting on the border dispute by special representatives of India and China, with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval representing India in place of his predecessor Shiv Shankar Menon.

Foreign minister Wang said China is keen to solidify its relationship with India through a process of consultations. He said India's engagement with the United States would not come in the way of its relationship with China

"India has its own relationship with the US, and we have our own. We want India to make friends everywhere," Wang replied on how it saw US President Barack Obama's visit to New Delhi last month.

The new route to Mansarovar from the Nathula Pass in Sikkim will begin in June 2015, Swaraj said. This was India's proposal and China agreed while stating the necessary infrastructure remains to be built.

"Many elderly people wish to make a pilgrimage to Mansarovar but can't because the current route is difficult. The Nathula route is motorable," Swaraj said.

Among other things, India is seeking a larger role in the Asean, within which China commands tremendous influence. On the other hand, China wants India to agree to its plans for Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road.

Interestingly, Chinese state-owned media has admitted "mistrust" among other countries over its "strategic motivations" and sought to ally concerns of "regional hegemony" over the Silk Road and Maritime Silk Route. The latter also includes Kolkata's port to further trade and commerce integrating regional and global markets.

Swaraj said, "We prefer a synergy based endorsement, not a blank endorsement of the Silk Road plan." India, she said, was interested in a larger role in Asean. "But we are not talking about any conditions of quid pro quo," she added. She also proposed a six-point template to build Sino-India ties to realise the common dream of "Asian Century".

She will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday. Prime Minister Modi has had three successful meetings with Xi, the most important being his visit to India in September last year.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Feb 2015 17:39

Sino-Indian ties have entered new phase: Xi Jinping - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday said that Sino-Indian ties had achieved a turnaround, having entered a “new stage” of partnership following his visit to India in September last.

“Since my visit to India, the relations between our two countries have entered a new phase. The positive side of China-India relations has been growing,” President Xi said, after he received visiting External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in the Great Hall of the People.

“Solid steps are being taken to implement agreements between Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and me,” he said. Mr. Xi added, “I have full confidence on the future of China and India relations. I believe the good process will be achieved in the growth of bilateral relations.”

Sino-Indian ties were advancing with a steady “momentum”, the President observed.

Mr. Xi recalled his visit to Mr. Modi’s hometown during his visit, signaling his warm personal ties with the Indian Prime Minister. “Last September I visited India. I still cherish the fresh memories in my mind about the gracious hospitality extended to me by the government and people and particularly I cherish the fond memories of my trip to Prime Minister Modi's home town in Gujarat State.”

Mr. Xi stressed the special gesture shown by Mr. Modi for personally accompanying him during the visit to Ahmedabad. “Please convey my best regards and cordial greetings to President (Pranab) Mukherjee and Prime Minister Modi.”

On her part, Ms. Swaraj conveyed to Mr. Xi, Mr. Modi’s warm wishes, on the occasion of the upcoming Lunar Year of the Sheep, the Chinese New Year.

She said the Year of the Sheep signaled creativity and innovation, reinforcing President Xi’s stress on creativity and innovation during his India visit last year. Ms. Swaraj was confident that the two countries would be able to devise new ways during the Chinese New Year to further improve the relationship.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Feb 2015 21:12

China offered Russia and India to create a new Silk Road

"We call for mutual gain against the zero-sum game, against confrontation. China has initiated the formation of" one zone - one way. "We want to continue the tradition of the Great Silk Road and fill it with new content in the new century," - he told reporters on the Following the ministerial meeting in the RIC format.

According to the minister, China is ready "to cooperate with all states located along this route."

"We are ready to cooperate with all relevant partners and international organizations, especially the largest of our neighbors in the face of Russia and India combined efforts, jointly advocate for mutual gain in the XXI century. This is not a solo of China, is a general symphony concert of all our partners," - said Wang Yi

The foreign ministers of Russia, China and India are calling for urgent reform of the IMF

"They (the ministers) called for the immediate reform of the international financial system, to increase the weight and representation of emerging markets and countries," - the document says.

http://ria.ru/trend/Peking_Foreign_Offi ... _02022015/

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 03 Feb 2015 04:24

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chi ... story.html

China wants to keep its aircraft carriers secret? Aircraft carriers are mostly useless except to project power against weak states that cannot sink such carriers. So why build all these aircraft carriers?

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 03 Feb 2015 07:28

chinese are developing business interests right across africa, latin america... a/c carriers are a useful way to project power and safeguard interests in these territories as well ..and also to psychologically overwhelm asian rivals...

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 03 Feb 2015 07:57

SSridhar wrote:‘Out of box’ solution for border problem planned as PM Narendra Modi prepares to visit China; Mansarovar route confirmed - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China by May 26 this year, that is, before the BJP-led government completes one year in office, minister of external affairs Sushma Swaraj here on Sunday.

On her first visit to China as foreign minister, Swaraj also said India remains committed to an "early settlement" of the border issues, even as sources said the two neighbours have begun working on a slew of agreements to reduce differences on all other outstanding issues.

The agreements are likely to be finalized during Modi's visit to Beijing with the two sides also reaching an agreement on an additional route to Mansarovar, a Hindu pilgrimage in Tibet.

"The two countries have strong leaders. They are also keen on an out-of-box solution," Swaraj told reporters after meeting top Chinese functionaries including foreign minister Wang Yi on Sunday.

"We want it to be an action-oriented visit," Swaraj added. The two countries have formed a contact group to "identify issues" that will come up during the Prime Minister's visit. The purpose is to narrow down areas of differences. The visit will be preceded by a meeting on the border dispute by special representatives of India and China, with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval representing India in place of his predecessor Shiv Shankar Menon.

Foreign minister Wang said China is keen to solidify its relationship with India through a process of consultations. He said India's engagement with the United States would not come in the way of its relationship with China

"India has its own relationship with the US, and we have our own. We want India to make friends everywhere," Wang replied on how it saw US President Barack Obama's visit to New Delhi last month.

The new route to Mansarovar from the Nathula Pass in Sikkim will begin in June 2015, Swaraj said. This was India's proposal and China agreed while stating the necessary infrastructure remains to be built.

"Many elderly people wish to make a pilgrimage to Mansarovar but can't because the current route is difficult. The Nathula route is motorable," Swaraj said.

Among other things, India is seeking a larger role in the Asean, within which China commands tremendous influence. On the other hand, China wants India to agree to its plans for Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road.

Interestingly, Chinese state-owned media has admitted "mistrust" among other countries over its "strategic motivations" and sought to ally concerns of "regional hegemony" over the Silk Road and Maritime Silk Route. The latter also includes Kolkata's port to further trade and commerce integrating regional and global markets.

Swaraj said, "We prefer a synergy based endorsement, not a blank endorsement of the Silk Road plan." India, she said, was interested in a larger role in Asean. "But we are not talking about any conditions of quid pro quo," she added. She also proposed a six-point template to build Sino-India ties to realise the common dream of "Asian Century".

She will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday. Prime Minister Modi has had three successful meetings with Xi, the most important being his visit to India in September last year.

Anyone have ideas what this out of the box solution is ?... For me, it would suggest exchanging mansarovar for tawang.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 03 Feb 2015 08:16

tawang wasis wont take kindly to such a view. they are as Indian as any other, better than many.
that small town donated more than 3 crore during kargil and a similar amount during the uttarakhand floods. also sends a fairly large number of its sons to the army. I am sorry but that sentiment is borderline bigoted.

why would man-sarovar even figure in the border talks when it is quite some distance from the border and the chinese already occupy 100's of sq km of Indian territory that we should look to return first.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 03 Feb 2015 08:55

More people should visit the North-east in their spare time, rather than spout such nonsense as Tawang to be returned in exchange for something else. It is as Indian as any other town.

All of Arunachal is non-negotiable. I even found Malayalis living there permanently, married to the local populace.

I am not sure what this out of box thinking is, other than support for silk road trade (Aksai chin remaining in their hands) in exchange for peace, with PRC continuing to nibble at the borders elsewhere to keep the pressure. I do not see any new thoughts aired so far from the Indian side which is radically different from the predecessors.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Feb 2015 10:54

Guddu wrote:Anyone have ideas what this out of the box solution is ?... For me, it would suggest exchanging mansarovar for tawang.

Guddu, I see two errors in the presumption you make. China is not going to exchange Manasa Sarovar for anything else, nor is India asking for that. Do we have a border dispute with that area? Second, how can we give up Tawang? We are just upgrading on a war footing the landing facilities, border roads etc in that area.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Feb 2015 11:09

No Indian terotery should be given up anywhere. Minor adjustments are acceptable. IIRC, when Rajiv G visisted the PRC in the late 80s. Deng was reported to have said that the actual McMohan line represented a ground line that was 6 Km wide. So the dispute is only about that 6 kms.

I can accept a compromise on that line. But Indian territory is non negotiable. Moreover, Aksai Chin must be returned by the PRC.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 03 Feb 2015 11:36

pankajs wrote:
SSridhar wrote:New China-Myanmar oil pipeline bypasses Malacca trap - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
Now this is an interesting view and we have read some version of this before. Even earlier I had this thought but let me put it down here.

While Malacca strait is a choke point and specially at Singapore, Isn't the whole bypass route going to be right under India's nose from around Lakshadweep to Burma and therefore very vulnerable to Indian action?

True. But we should silently encourage and support this strategy by Cheen in addition to operating our own captive port in Myanmar for linking North East to Bay of Bengal.

I love this development for three reasons. First of all, this gives some strategic leverage for Bharath vs Cheen. Secondly and perhaps more importantly, it diminishes the geographic utility of Pukistan and PoK (and by extension Karakoram highway, etc.) to Cheen. This means the freedom struggle of Balochies will not be as vehemently opposed by Cheen as earlier assuming world opinion favors right of self determination of Balochis. Thirdly, as we evolve our strategic and economic standing in the region, we can act as guarantors of safety of this line to our Cheen friends.

Desh has its task cut out - develop assets and investments in Myanmar at a scale and quality that is better than our western neighbour that will strengthen our influence and leverage in that country.