Eastern Europe/Ukraine

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Feb 2015 05:54

Batya barked a few orders into his walkie-talkie, then turned and said, “There will be loud noises soon.” Almost instantly, the company’s tank, parked down the road, barked loudly and the percussion wave rolled up the venetian blinds.

Batya said his troops had held this position for four months, but were looking forward to moving once the road to Debaltseve is severed. After that, well, that is another question.

In August, Russian-backed rebels troops routed Ukrainian forces around the town of Ilovaisk, obliterating entire units of soldiers, leaving about 100 armored vehicles in smoking ruins and reversing the tide of the war. There is talk now of “another Ilovaisk” in Debaltseve.

“We will win, I know that,” Batya said. “We will not accept to live with these Ukrainians any more. But what the world will look like after the fighting, really, I don’t know.”

The venetian blinds danced a few more times. Coffee was served and Ira traded her fuzzy slippers for leather boots and a fur-lined combat cap. Batya fingered the medals hanging from his battle tunic; one of them is for conspicuous bravery, the highest decoration the rebels bestow.

Horlivka is a crucial position for the rebels, both because of its substantial industrial facilities and because of five huge water pipelines that converge here. If Ukraine captures the town, Batya said, it could choke off the entire region’s water supply.

“Lose Horlivka and we lose the war,” he said. “But we do not lose Horlivka.”

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Feb 2015 06:19

Hitler sends more columns into Stalingrad
Ukraine throws reinforcements at Debaltseve, separatists vow to escalate war

If the vodka carriers don't pounce now...

A flight of five of Hind Mi-24 attack helicopters churned through the afternoon sky on Feb 2, speeding low over the road into Artyomovsk's center as Ukraine’s army sent a huge column of reinforcements streaming towards its besieged positions in Debaltseve.

A column of armor, artillery and troop transports nearly a kilometer long could be seen rumbling down the road from Ukraine’s headquarters at Kramatorsk to Artyomovsk, a city of 75,000 famous for its sparkling wine and salt mine, some 30 kilometers north of Debaltseve’s strategic rail and road junction.

Ukraine’s hold on the area had looked precarious on the night of Feb. 1, with one Ukrainian National Guard unit even complaining they had been abandoned because other units had fled the city after separatist forces reached the outskirts.

Army generals appeared to have responded on Feb. 2 with reinforcements, but it may yet prove too little, too late for the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers battling to repel the Russian-backed forces’ offensive at Debaltseve. They now find themselves surrounded but for a single supply road under constant threat of attack.

Military officials were tight-lipped about the battle, with Ukrainian army spokesperson Colonel Andriy Lysenko refusing to comment beyond “all attacks were repelled” and initially denying Ukrainian choppers were in the air. When informed the helicopters had been caught on camera, he told the Kyiv Post:

“I can’t comment on that, but I can tell you that Ukraine only uses helicopters for transporting wounded, they don’t attack people.”

Fighting was particularly heavy in the village of Vuhlehirsk, a village 10 kilometers west of Debaltseve. Pro-Ukrainian forces had lost control of the village on Jan. 30, allowing separatist artillery to get within range of Debaltseve’s supply road, but pushed back over the weekend to deny the insurgents full control of the area.

Casualties continued to flow into Artyomovsk hospital, but in fewer numbers than on Feb. 1, according to one soldier, who did not want to be named as he was not authorised to speak to press.

“Today they are taking more losses than us,” he told the Kyiv Post. “The situation is more stable than yesterday. Yesterday was bad.”
In an apparent sign of frustration with his forces’ lack of an immediate breakthrough, Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, announced a plan to mobilize a further 100,000 troops for a spring offensive.
Zakharchenko added that he wanted to create “at least five additional brigades; three motorised infantry, one artillery and one tank.”
With an estimated 3 million people of all ages currently living in both the Donetsk and Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’, the announcement is considered by many as a thinly veiled threat to bring more Russian troops into the region.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 Feb 2015 06:56

Shreeman wrote:^^^ Well, lets put down some basics.

Russia is tankering food+fuel+medicines, in white and other convoys. What about the west. Who ispaying for the heat+fuel. What is the ground situation re. day to day necessities? The noise re. missing gas for west ukraine has died down, not sure why this is not a pressing issue now.

Correct me if I am wrong - but IMF did hand out quite a bit of cash to Ukraine in 2014. And while the economy of Ukraine is doing badly, it is still a world better than what has happened to Novorossiya, from where half a million have fled to Russia because their homes have been pulped & they have nowhere to stay. Novorossiya's economy is in tatters, really, compared to Ukraine, even.

As far as the war is concerned, it take a little longer for the collective PTSD to set in. This year should do it. Aleppo was fine in year 1 of the syria event if you recall.

Aleppo was finished when the war came to them. As far as I can see, the war is not going to come to Kiev, much less Lviv or Ternopol in the near term. Novorossiya is too weak to accomplish that much.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 03 Feb 2015 07:07

nageshks wrote: UB thalaivare,
It may not be enough to send a few vodka convoys. While Russians may be majority east of Dneiper (even this is not certain), they are not in an absolutely commanding position. There are parts of Novorossiya too that are purely UkBapzi (east Bank Dnepropetrovsk, parts of Zaporozhie and Poltava, etc) and the history of the Ukrainean Insurgent Army, even in the Stalinist times when everyone had abandoned them, shows that they are not an enemy to be trifled with. Apart from sending the vodka convoys, Comrade Vlad may need to reopen a few mines in Siberia if he wants to keep everything east of the Dnepr (this is what Comrade Stalin had to do in the 40s) ,,,,

More interesting is whether Hungary will try to get back its old territories. Uzhgorod is something they have their eyes on and the old Ungvar is truly a Hungarian region - it was annexed by Comrade Stalin after WW2. Hungarians have backed away currently under EU pressure, but they want their old territory back. If they join with the Rusyns in the aftermath of a UkBapZi defeat, things could get very interesting indeed.

I remember reading somewhere, a few months back, that the Polish PM was asked by Putin if they could carve Ukraine up. He claims that he didn't answer or answered in the negative.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 03 Feb 2015 07:10

nageshks wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong - but IMF did hand out quite a bit of cash to Ukraine in 2014. And while the economy of Ukraine is doing badly, it is still a world better than what has happened to Novorossiya, from where half a million have fled to Russia because their homes have been pulped & they have nowhere to stay. Novorossiya's economy is in tatters, really, compared to Ukraine, even.

Mmh, but if the east is taken away, the industrial belt is surely taken away and all that's left of Ukraine [or the west, rather] is just land and people. But yes, its perhaps ironical that the west Ukies are demolishing because they are sure they wont get the region back? Who knows?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 Feb 2015 08:10

vijaykarthik wrote: I remember reading somewhere, a few months back, that the Polish PM was asked by Putin if they could carve Ukraine up. He claims that he didn't answer or answered in the negative.

Poles would have to be idiots to want Galicia or Volhynia back. In WW2, the then UkBapZis butchered 100K poles (often in utterly obnoxious ways like pine bending). Ukraineans don't really play well with any other ethnicity in the region. If you notice previous elections in Ukraine, all the Ukraineans would vote one way (for people like Yushchenko or Iulia Timoschenko), while all the minorities would vote for people like Yanukovich. Also, it suits Poland to create a buffer of these UkBapZis between themselves & a Russian (or Russian influenced) Novorossiya. The wild card are the Hungarians - who genuinely want Ungvar back. None of the other minorities are in a position to demand their own country or merger with their mother country. The Rusyns will probably go whichever way is economically more convenient & given the rise of the Right Sector thugs, they might decide to go with Hungary, if Hungary decides to give them sufficient incentive. The Rusyns created the Republic of Carpatho Ukraine (after the division of Czechosolvakia and German annexation of Bohemia & Moravia) at daybreak of March 15, 1939. However, by nightfall, Hungarian troops had marched in & dissolved the republic

. They remained part of Horthy's Hungary till the fall of Hungary & were annexed into the Soviet Union.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Feb 2015 08:47

Shreeman wrote:^^^ Well, lets put down some basics.

Russia is tankering food+fuel+medicines, in white and other convoys. What about the west. Who ispaying for the heat+fuel. What is the ground situation re. day to day necessities? The noise re. missing gas for west ukraine has died down, not sure why this is not a pressing issue now.

What exactly is ukraine producing or selling, and to whom?

The long term economic prospects for ukraine are dire as far as I see. What is the silver lining? IMF?

As far as the war is concerned, it take a little longer for the collective PTSD to set in. This year should do it. Aleppo was fine in year 1 of the syria event if you recall.

2/3rd of Ukraine's exports go to the other CIS countries (mostly Russia). Also, most of their exports are coal and steel and the
producing regions are where the fighting is taking place. The question they have to address is weather IMF bailouts will last longer
than their tanking economy. Joining the EU will hurt Ukraine more as they will be flooded with duty free imports, while there is
nothing they have to export to the EU, except an influx of cheap labour.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 03 Feb 2015 08:55

^^^ Deans,

This was sort of the point. Its not like they were making 100s of zenits. The eastern trade ought to have suffered, and manufacturing should have had issues due to lack of gas/coal. Transport is probably Not the easiest either.

Is Russia still buying from ukraine? Why is there no grumbling in grass roots at the crumbling economy? Isnt that what is supposed to make the eastern part revolt against russia in the future?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Feb 2015 10:29

Deans wrote: 2/3rd of Ukraine's exports go to the other CIS countries (mostly Russia). Also, most of their exports are coal and steel and the
producing regions are where the fighting is taking place. The question they have to address is weather IMF bailouts will last longer
than their tanking economy. Joining the EU will hurt Ukraine more as they will be flooded with duty free imports, while there is
nothing they have to export to the EU, except an influx of cheap labour.

All Money poured into Ukraine will just go into a blackhole , with the top guys skimming the cream or most of it with just a small percentage going into useful economy.

Thats the Russian experience of funding Ukraine directly or with gas subsidy for past 15 years and EU/IMF experience will be no different.

In the end with the attention span of Western leaders move away from Ukraine which would eventually happen in next 2 years , Ukraine would just be a bread producer for EU and source of cheap labour.

Proshenko and Yats and cronies would either be settled in EU or US joining some US Think Thank which promotes democracy probably winning some Award for Promoting Democracy and the people would end up paying all the price of their misadventure

Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili would be a perfect candidate that the current Ukrn ruling elite would represent.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Feb 2015 10:40

Remember the "dual citizenship" that the Choco president has brought in for UKR and other (read US) citizens? It may end up as an American de-facto state in Europe on Russia's borders!

Meanwhile,gutsy Donetsk Republic citizens. The show must go on despite the war. The hallmark of a civilized people.
http://www.theguardian.com/music/2015/f ... must-go-on
Donetsk opera house: tanks on the street but the show must go on
The city’s opera house remains open despite the dangers posed by the conflict between local separatists and Ukrainian forces

Donetsk opera house: tanks on the street but the show must go on
The city’s opera house remains open despite the dangers posed by the conflict between local separatists and Ukrainian forces

Donetsk opera
In a dressing room before a performance by the Donetsk opera company. Photographs: Maria Turchenkova for the Guardian

Shaun Walker in Donetsk
Monday 2 February 2015

By now in Donetsk, everyone from children to pensioners can differentiate between the sound of incoming and outgoing fire, or identify a mortar or Grad rocket from its pitch. At the Donbass Opera, however, people are given very different choices to stimulate the senses: Verdi or Puccini; Strauss or Bizet.

In a city where armed men in camouflage ride down the main street in tanks, more than half of the residents have fled and most shops and restaurants are closed, opera should perhaps be the last thing on anyone’s mind. But remarkably, and against all the odds, the city’s opera house has remained open, despite the fact that none of the troupe have been paid in months, all four conductors have left town and the singers take a risk every time they travel to work. It is a risk, however, that they say is worth it.
Donetsk opera house – in pictures

“Even if people don’t come, they know the theatre is open, and that in itself is a big boost: it makes things seem more normal,” said baritone Sergei Dubnitsky, who last Sunday sang the lead in Die Fledermaus, Johann Strauss’s hammy comedy of mistaken identities. In addition to taking on leading operatic parts, he has learned to conduct and picked up the baton to conduct La Traviata at the weekend.

“Whenever you perform, you can sense from the stage what kind of connection you are making with the audience, whether the audience is engaged. Of course there are productions that are better or worse than others, but overall it has become much easier to find those connections, people are much more engaged.”

Lidia Kachalova, former leading soloist at the Donetsk opera and ballet theatre.

It may seem odd to hum along to operatic farce when just a few miles away there are frontlines, but the audience appears genuinely delighted as the singers prance around the stage during Die Fledermaus. The production radiates lightheartedness and innocence – qualities in short supply in today’s Donetsk.

“When you are surrounded by ugliness, beauty becomes something you cherish even more,” said Galina, a 42-year-old nurse, who had brought her two teenage children to the theatre to cheer them up.

A striking, Stalinist neoclassic building on Donetsk’s main thoroughfare, the theatre was opened in April 1941, months before the Nazi occupation of Stalino, as the city was called. The 960-seat auditorium has a sense of grandeur; the ornate foyer features busts of Russian and Ukrainian literary greats Alexander Pushkin and Taras Shevchenko.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Feb 2015 10:49

Shreeman wrote:^^^ Deans,

This was sort of the point. Its not like they were making 100s of zenits. The eastern trade ought to have suffered, and manufacturing should have had issues due to lack of gas/coal. Transport is probably Not the easiest either.

Is Russia still buying from ukraine? Why is there no grumbling in grass roots at the crumbling economy? Isnt that what is supposed to make the eastern part revolt against russia in the future?

Shreeman,
I agree with you. Russia has been cutting back on imports from Ukraine. for e.g. Food imports from Ukraine were officially
stopped sometime in Nov, but the separatist provinces carry out some local trade with Russia. The only thing keeping the Ukrainian
economy afloat is IMF money. Chocolate is trying to create a permanent war like atmosphere, because if things normalise,
then next set of Maidan protests will be against his govt. Unfortunately his attempt to escalate in Dec, by a quick seizure of Donetsk airport, backfired.
The separatist provinces are in worse shape economically.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Feb 2015 12:07

Two schools of thought in the US regarding arming the Kiev clique. With a US budget aimed at increasing its agro against ISIS in Iraq and Syria,getting involved in the UKR spat more deeply might be "a war too much" for the US. One would strongly advise O'Bomber to remember what JFK said about LBJ; "I'd rather have him inside the tent p*ssing out than outside p*ssing in!". One could say the same about Mr.Putin. The US would do better to get Putin on its side fighting ISIS and Russia cooperating with it in the M-East,than starting another Cold War fighting it by proxy on several fronts.

US sending weapons to Kiev ‘not the answer’ to Ukraine crisis – White House adviser
Published time: February 03, 2015
http://rt.com/news/228795-us-ukraine-weapons-sanctions/

Supplying more arms to the Ukrainian government will not solve the crisis in the country, US deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes has stated. According to Rhodes, implementing more sanctions against Russia is the amicable solution.

READ MORE: US mulls providing Kiev forces with ‘defensive’ weapons – report

Responding to the comments made earlier in the day by US senior administration officials, saying that Washington is looking into providing Kiev with more weapons, Rhodes stated: “We don’t think the answer to the crisis in Ukraine is simply to inject more weapons.” He made the comments in an interview with CNN on Monday.

Instead, “the best way” lies through imposing more economic sanctions on Russia, the White House official said, blaming the events in the country on “Russia’s calculus.”

At the same time, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said during a Monday briefing that Washington is “continually assessing” various ways to offset Russia when it comes to the Ukrainian crisis.

“The president’s view continues to be that this administration needs to be continually assessing what our strategy should be,” Earnest said, adding that “wide variety of opinions” are being looked at.

READ MORE: Obama openly admits 'brokering power transition' in Ukraine

US is mulling ways in which it can give additional funds to Kiev, the spokesman said. “The scope of our financial assistance to Ukrainian authorities could increase significantly due to the unstable situation in the country provoked by Russia. We can and must do more to provide financial assistance to Ukraine,” Earnest said.

He also revealed that Russia and Ukraine will be on the agenda for the German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to Washington next week. “The two leaders will discuss a range of issues including Ukraine, Russia, counterterrorism, ISIL [the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria], Afghanistan, and Iran.”

Last week, the White House spokesman also stressed that there is no military solution to the Ukrainian conflict. “With regard to the provision of military assistance to Ukraine, the president [Barack Obama] does not want to do this for the reason that the problem cannot be used by military means. This conflict must be resolved by diplomatic means,” Earnest said during a press conference.

Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the Obama administration may reconsider its position and send “defensive” weapons to Kiev forces, citing Gen. Philip M. Breedlove as one of the advocates of the move.

“General Breedlove has repeatedly stated that he supports the pursuit of a diplomatic solution as well as considering practical means of support to the government of Ukraine in its struggle against Russian-backed separatists,” the spokesman, Capt. Gregory L. Hicks of the Navy, told the NYT.

READ MORE: Potential conscripts evade draft, flee country amid escalation in E. Ukraine

Backing the idea of arming Kiev forces, a new independent report by eight former senior American officials urges Washington to approve for the next three years a $3 billion budget to provide defensive arms and equipment, including anti-armor missiles, drones, armored vehicles, and radars.

“The West needs to bolster deterrence in Ukraine by raising the risks and costs to Russia of any renewed major offensive,” the report says. “That requires providing direct military assistance – in far larger amounts than provided to date and including lethal defensive arms.”

The Ukraine Freedom Support Act, passed unanimously in December, authorizes the US president to provide lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine – including anti-tank weapons, ammunition, and troop-operated surveillance drones.

US President Barack Obama is asking the new Republican-dominated Congress for a base defense budget of $534 billion in 2016, according to the Pentagon. The proposed budget also sets aside $117 million to ‘offset Russian pressure,’ but does not mention any military aid to Ukraine.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 03 Feb 2015 12:31

I remember reading somewhere, a few months back, that the Polish PM was asked by Putin if they could carve Ukraine up. He claims that he didn't answer or answered in the negative.

Well, if one starts believeing what Polish and Lithuanians have to say on this, one will lose ones mind. It was Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister who made this claim. It was refuted by the Polish PM Donald Tusk.
Later Sikorski said that he had misremembered.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 03 Feb 2015 12:39

Ukraine is having problems enlisting men. The same was reported by RT earlier. RT seems to have more unbiased reports than all of american and western press put together.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 19273.html

The Ukrainian mobilisation wave, meanwhile, has not been going well. Government sources revealed that only 10 per cent of 75,000 have responded to the draft, the lowest number in any of the previous mobilisation.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Feb 2015 13:13

The heavy loss of life of UKR soldiers and aircraft,helos,etc. is not inspiring any great confidence or "love of the motherland" from the UKR populace.They know that their leadership is corrupt and weak and without EU/US financial and diplomatic support and Russian cheap energy supplies,their govt. would collapse like a pack of cards. Who therefore wants to be a sacrificial goat? On the other hand,the people's of the Donestk Republic are fighting for their families,and their future. They also know that they have the support of the "motherland",Russia which is providing them with mil. material and even volunteers. The manner in which the Crimea joined the Russian state is also an inspiration as the UKR choco soldiers can do b*gger all to retrieve the Crimea.It is only time before the east effectively splits completely from the UKR and joins the Russian federation in some appropriate manner.

http://rt.com/news/228643-ukraine-rebel ... -campaign/
E. Ukrainian rebels announce recruiting drive, plan 5 new brigades
February 02, 2015

Anti-government forces in Eastern Ukraine have announced a recruitment campaign, to start next week. Kiev said the move indicates heavy losses suffered by their opponents.

The expected recruiting drive, which mirrors Kiev’s own mobilization order by President Petro Poroshenko last month, will be officially launched next week, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, told a local news station.

“As for mobilization, conscription, we are capable of doing it,” he said, adding that the troops would be involved in a counteroffensive against Kiev forces.

“We plan to form five new brigades, three of them mechanized. We have the basis to train the soldiers. I believe we can do it by springtime,” he added.

The official later clarified that they plan to recruit more volunteers, rather than to enforce conscription, and that the training may take as long as six months.

Reports from on the ground indicate that logistic structures of the rebels are only partially functional, and that conducting a full-blown conscription campaign amid ongoing hostilities may be too complex. Enrolling and training “up to 100,000 soldiers,” as declared initially by Zakharchenko, is clearly an impossible goal in the war-torn region that saw hundreds of thousands of people fleeing in the past several months.

Kiev officials cheered the news, saying it indicated impending doom for the militias.
“We are still checking it, but it indicates that they are short of fighters,” Kiev military spokesman Andrey Lysenko told at a daily briefing.

Ukraine’s own mobilization campaign, the fourth since the armed coup in Kiev brought to power the current government in February 2014, is reportedly stalled because potential recruits are dodging conscription officials. Hundreds of Ukrainian men are choosing to flee the country rather than be enrolled.

The violence between government troops and anti-government militias escalated in January. The rebels fended off what Kiev described as a “massive offensive” and scored several territorial gains.

‘Kiev not ready to talk peace’ – rebel leaders on Minsk talks failure

The heads of the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk have issued a joint statement, in which they blamed Kiev for the failure of the latest round of peace talks on Saturday.

“The negotiations in Minsk turned out fruitless and were thwarted solely due to the fault of the Ukrainian side,” said the leaders of the republics, Aleksandr Zakharchenko (DPR) and Igor Plotnitsky (LPR).

They reminded reporters that it was Kiev which reignited hostilities in January, saying that “it was [Ukrainian president, Petro] Poroshenko, who gave the public order to start offensive across the whole frontline.”

At the same time, Kiev has blamed the rebels for sabotaging the talks, as they were unable to send officials with a high enough rank to Minsk in order to sign a new agreement.

Ukraine was backed by the OSCE, which stressed that the DPR and LPR representatives, Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Deynego, in the Belarusian capital “weren’t even prepared to discuss the implementation of a ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons."

Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky argued that their envoys Pushilin and Deynego had “all the powers” to agree a ceasefire deal, which “was publically confirmed by the decrees signed by the heads of the DPR and LPR.”

“It’s Kiev, which isn’t ready to talk. It’s Poroshenko, who rushes back and forth and is afraid to take responsibility,” they said.

The DPR and LPR heads once again turned down Kiev’s offer to bring back the disengagement line agreed by the sides in September last year.

“Why would we do that? To see our cities shelled again? To see more defenseless people, women, elderly and children killed? No, gentlemen, forget about it. You’re suffering yet another military defeat right now,” they said addressing the Ukrainian leadership.

Both Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky stressed they want a peaceful solution to the conflict and are ready to resume talks with the other side.

“We don’t need blood. We’re ready to stop, but only at the line where we are now. We won’t betray the memory of our brothers-in-arms and peaceful civilians, who died in January…we demand Kiev return to the table and start negotiating,” they said.

The violence between government troops and anti-government militias escalated in January. The rebels fended off what Kiev described as a “massive offensive” and scored several territorial gains.

The focus of the current hostilities is the area around the city of Debaltsevo, a stronghold of Ukrainian troops deep inside the rebel-held part of the country. Some 8,000 troops stationed in the area are at risk of being cut off from supply lines and suffering a major defeat.

Moscow is skeptical about the prospect of a new ceasefire, blaming Washington for not pressuring Kiev into seeking peace rather than continuing the war.

“Elsewhere in the world, our Western partners are calling for dialogue between the authorities and the opposition. Everywhere in Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, South Sudan. But Ukraine is for some reason an exception. Western colleagues say that in Ukraine the most important thing is to support Kiev’s actions,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a media conference in China.

He added that apparently Washington plans to “maintain its unconditional support” of whatever Kiev does, even though “it apparently took a course towards a purely military suppression of the conflict.”

Russian president Vladimir Putin expressed his concern over the situation in Donbass and called on both sides involved in the conflict to stop the war, the president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, told TASS.

The civil war in eastern Ukraine has claimed more than 5,000 civilian lives, according to the latest UN count.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 03 Feb 2015 14:01

One not so serious question. Are the UkN girls are very very good looking or what?

I mean why is EU want to have that nation has in it so that EU can benifit? I mean, nothing is there for EU, other than cost of maintaining a ruined nation, getting flooded with cheap labor and crime.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 03 Feb 2015 14:11

Yagnasri wrote:One not so serious question. Are the UkN girls are very very good looking or what? I mean why is EU want to have that nation has in it so that EU can benifit? I mean, nothing is there for EU, other than cost of maintaining a ruined nation, getting flooded with cheap labor and crime.

Fear of Russia. This might sound too simplistic, but there is deep seated fear of Red Army marching towards West. In addition, the poor state of defense preparedness means, they are almost relying on US military umbrella. Consequently, they would feel secure to have a Nato-member-Ukraine that acts as a wall. So they are doing this for security not any economic gain (in their mind).

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 03 Feb 2015 14:53

Yagnasri wrote:One not so serious question. Are the UkN girls are very very good looking or what? I mean why is EU want to have that nation has in it so that EU can benifit? I mean, nothing is there for EU, other than cost of maintaining a ruined nation, getting flooded with cheap labor and crime.

The answer is yes.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 03 Feb 2015 15:26

>>Are the UkN girls are very very good looking or what?

Yes.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 03 Feb 2015 15:28

^^ It is actually the fear of Soviet Union and history.
Russia has built a customs union very much like the EU. Most of the bigger countries of the Soviet Union (geographically) have joined it. Ukraine is the only one that has been kept away from it.
If Ukraine were to join the customs Union, the strength of the eastern slavic `threat` to Europe will be once again similar to earlier periods in history. US would not want the rise of any such geo-political competitor on Brezinsky`s chessboard. That is why they are willing to go dumb and crazy and nuts to oppose Ukraine joining Customs Union.

The EU is acting plainly stupid. But it cant say no to US because of the marshall plan debt. It also doesnt see the Russian democracy as true democracy although everyone knows that a more democratic Russia wouldnt have taken a different line on Ukraine either.

Inside the EU, Lithuania and Poland are US puppets. Poland elite is absolutely out of reality with the real world. Its ambitious and wants to play a role bigger than its shoes in Europe and is driving the anti Russia policy in Europe.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 03 Feb 2015 15:45

^^ I would humbly submit the beauty of the ukrainian brides to be accepted as a secondary factor in the calculations.

edit -- not to mean that I support or oppose the notion. Just as a historic fact, and with the aim of improving the overall looks of poland.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Feb 2015 16:05

http://rt.com/news/228643-ukraine-rebel ... -campaign/

US increasingly concerned that Russia is intent on partitioning Ukraine

With rebels having seized extra 200 square miles of territory, US’s leaking of talks about sending weapons to Kiev may be Obama’s way of warning Putin to back off

A guard tries to arrest a fighter of the Ayda Ukrainian volunteer battalion, who entered the Ukrainian Defence Ministry compound in Kiev during a protest to prevent the possible disbandment of the battalion. Photograph: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty

Simon Tisdall
Monday 2 February 2015 14.55 GMT

The public disclosure that the US is considering supplying lethal weaponry to Ukraine in its battle with Russian-backed separatists, reflects heightened American concern that Moscow is intent on carving out an expanded, economically viable enclave in eastern Ukraine that could in time declare itself an independent state.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, pursued this policy in Georgia after the 2008 war, when he encouraged separatists in the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to proclaim their independence from Tbilisi. Pro-Moscow forces in Transnistria, legally part of Moldova, have taken a similar path.

US concern that Putin, despite previous assurances to the contrary, is now seeking effectively to partition Ukraine has been fuelled by rebel territorial gains. Nato estimates that the separatists, backed by Russian reinforcements including T-80 tanks, have seized control of an additional 200 square miles in the past four months.

“The assessment of some senior western officials is that the Kremlin’s goal is to replace the Minsk agreement [the September pact that proposed a ceasefire and territorial guarantees] with an accord that... would leave the separatists with a more economically viable enclave,” the New York Times reported.

Resumed peace talks in Minsk at the weekend collapsed within hours after rebel representatives sought to redraw the proposed demarcation line between the two sides to include their recent territorial gains. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the rebels “were not even prepared to discuss implementation of a ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons”.

By leaking internal discussions about supplying lethal weapons to Kiev, the Obama administration may be warning Putin to back off. US and EU sanctions, renewed last week, have failed to stop him. Diplomatic interventions by Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s François Hollande have also proven ineffective. Instead, US officials say Putin has deployed new heavy weapons and 1,000 specialist military and intelligence personnel, and the fighting has intensified. About 5,000 people have died since last April, with more than 1 million displaced.

The US secretary of state, John Kerry, is due in Kiev on Thursday and will use the visit to take the temperature in the Ukrainian capital as the US administration weighs its options.

Lt Col Vanessa Hillman, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said the administration’s focus “remains on pursuing a solution through diplomatic means,” but added, “we are always evaluating other options that will help create space for a negotiated solution to the crisis.”

But Washington’s threat risks turning what is currently a largely contained, internal insurrection into an international proxy war, pitting the US and Nato against Russia. In prospect now is the killing or maiming of Russians by American anti-tank missiles, a scenario not seen since the cold war-era occupation of Afghanistan by Soviet forces. The impact on wider European security could be deeply destabilising.

Tensions are already running high, not least with the increase in air and sea incidents involving the Russian military, such as last week’s provocative over-flight of the English channel. Nato’s decision to set up permanent military command centres in Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and its creation of a 5,000-strong rapid response force are characterised by Putin as an attempt by the west to contain Russia.Last week, he ridiculed Ukraine’s army as Nato’s “foreign legion”.

Such an American escalation would probably deepen European divisions over Ukraine. Greece, heavily indebted, and Hungary, which has close economic links to Russia, take a very different line, for example, from that of the UK, which American reports suggest could follow any US lead in supplying weapons.

Uncertainty about Russian intentions has already caused a bad case of the jitters in Finland, Sweden and the Baltic republics. In the Czech Republic, the army chief of staff, General Petr Pavel, was quoted last week as predicting that an escalation in Ukraine would lead to the biggest military manoeuvres since 9/11, with troops being posted to the borders and to guard strategic plants. There are also wider European fears of mass refugee movements and manufactured unrest among expatriate ethnic Russian and Ukrainian minorities.

Judging by past performance, Putin is more likely to up the ante than back down if the US goes ahead. Retaliatory Russian escalation, which could include wider military intervention in Ukraine, renewed interference in Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic region or, for example, stepped-up deployment and testing of Iskander-M nuclear-capable cruise missiles in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania.

Putin may calculate that, as with Georgia in 2008 and Crimea last year, the US and Nato will not move militarily to thwart him in the end. He would use any Ukraine escalation to boost his narrative to the Russian people that the Fatherland is under siege by the west. But the obvious danger is that he may over-play his hand and, in his hubris and arrogance, provoke a wider calamity.

With the US unable to control ISIS in the M-East,which Russian general is afeared of the US in the UKR conflict? The most important factor has been overlooked by most analysts,in that the UKR east has a common border with Russia.The old saying,"professionals talk logistics and amateurs tactics",holds good here. The Russians can always resupply the Donetsk Republic armed forces with weapons,food,medicines,whatever,even vodka! Russia as the report says can apply pressure anywhere it wants in Europe.The last thing that the EU wants is a mil face off with Russia,struggling as it is today to come to terms with Islamic terror that has eaten away its insides. The EU is akin to a rotten tree,hollow inside ravaged by eco woes and immigrant terror. Putin wielding the axe as a "woodcutter" is not what the EU leaders want to see.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 03 Feb 2015 16:54

Russia seems to be winning the `propaganda` war.
http://en.delfi.lt/eu/lithuania-uk-denm ... d=66857976

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Feb 2015 23:20

JANES: Analysis: Ukraine rebels claim Tochka ballistic missile shoot-down

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 04 Feb 2015 00:35

Aayo Sajna, Vodka Bahar aayye, Kiev Ke Dwar Aayyee, Lay Ke Pukar aayye

Ukrainian separatist leader wants to raise `100,000-strong army` to push back govt troops

London, Feb 03 (ANI): Pro- Russia separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko has reportedly said that the rebels are planning to build a 100,000-strong army as clashes with Ukrainian troops intensified in the eastern part of the country after the collapse of the "fragile" Minsk truce agreement.
Zakharchenko, the self-proclaimed head of Donetsk People's Republic, said that the mobilisation was "urgent" and that the call-up is likely to take place in the next 10 days, reported the BBC.He explained that the 100,000-strong army would comprise the joint army of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. The troops would receive a month's training and would form at least five additional brigades including, three motorised rifle brigades, one artillery brigade and one tank brigade.
Zakharchenko said that the army would ensure that the region will be able to withstand any attack, and in case of success, will be able to develop a counter-attack.However, the separatists' ability to raise a large army is unclear.Meanwhile, dozens of people, including civilians, were killed in clashes over the weekend

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Feb 2015 00:44

Jhujhar: The rumor is that the 100,000 reference is code meaning the vodka bottles are coming.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 04 Feb 2015 00:45

UlanBatori wrote: That was the point of my post - the tone of UberSturmFuhress Merkel and Ambassador Brish1t had to be heard to b believed. Anger. Words like "fraud" (there were a few more choice words but I was trying to get out of a stopped lane into the kamikaze lane). Sneering references to the advice doled out by the Yoo Ess 9 months ago.

Wah, missed that gem. Surely the Russian recon aircraft that flew over the UK last week without permission from the UK govt. has some in the brishit government browning their pants. If YenPeeAar had such gems as opposed to the boring worthless dogpoo they dole out, I would want to listen to it regularly.

My question is what are the Goths and the Saxons going to about the pile of poo they have stepped in (other than whining about it and flinging said poo on the walls like the good little monkeys they are), thanks to the USA, which has no intention of letting Russia and EU get closer? Are they going to ask USA to shove off and make peace with Russia...but how can they do that when they all have low defence budgets because the US takes care of their defence needs?

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Feb 2015 03:12

^^^The litvenenko (consultant to MI-6, horoscope told free) inquiry is not innocent in this regard.

By the way, attempts to name everyone a Hitler will eventually lead to brand dissolution of the Hitler band, to the great chagrin of jews and EnPeeAre alike. Hitler bashing or associations by non-jewish people should be prevented as anti-semitic, and only genuine Hitler associations (minimum age 90) permitted to be named/prosecuted. Private or "foreign" media should be prevented from cashing in on the Hitler name and fame. After 70 years, has the world learned nothing?

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 04 Feb 2015 03:47

The words "fascism" and "hitler" and "nazi" have been overused/abused to the point of them becoming symbols of ridicule in human communication (even have a "godwin's law" to formalize that ridicule) rather than a specific event associated with mass murders at an industrial scale because of one group of people trained to develop psychological sense of superiority over everyone else....such a group of close to a billion people is now in resurgence, lead by a bunch of insanely rich mofos high on their religious hashish.

As an aside, humans as a species seem to be only a delta away from primates (and mostly that is an insult to the primates) -- most of "human intelligence" is barely more than monkey-like mimicing...humans even have special places called yoonee varsities to teach them such mimicing. Everything is learnt and forgotten at an increasing pace --- less than a century after WWII, all back to square 1.5. Anyway, best is to shut up and load up your weapons and sharpen your knives, metaphorically speaking...they will all be useful soon enough.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Feb 2015 03:54

Most humans (self included) are barely sentient today due to the needless trauma societal abuses cause. Civilisation develops where conflict is at best episodic. And the world is more a mental hospital than ever before. Certainly no time to estsblish IQ during an alcohol, drug, religion or war onset hullucination. All OT here, except that Poland really hates that one time Stalin took advantage of the not-so-pretty polish population en masse. Thats probably a smart, generational, ever lasting, all encompassing hatred.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 04 Feb 2015 07:21

Stalin was a great humanitarian who slaughtered approximate a million or more Russians, so the poles need to get over it at some point and stop blaming all of Russia for Stalin's evil.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Feb 2015 07:32

I think the "core" issue in that argument, so to say, is that the comerade was, mainly, georgian. Edit -- also the joke, it was in there somewhere. Now lost.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Feb 2015 08:30

Hundreds of Peaceful pro-Democracy Protestors crushed by steel-helmeted jack-booted Neo-Bazi Baptists in brutal Kiev junta attack

Kiev junta is obviously very popular.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Feb 2015 08:36

Meanwhile, Stalingrad-2 is in full swing

DEBALTSEVE, Ukraine – ~~Kremlin-backed separatists~~ DonBass Freedom Fighters set about reducing the Ukrainian-held Debaltseve to rubble on Feb. 3.

It started with a smattering of rockets, dropping about a kilometer away from the center with a series of dull booms and leaving dense plumes of smoke behind them. Within minutes, salvos of missiles were smashing down all over the city and its strategic rail and road junction...

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Feb 2015 11:02

This is a better indicator -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9IyHk_vA0s --of the goings on
than the post type paper. Not for weak stomachs.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Feb 2015 11:14

Since this thing blew up. I have tried to figure out who benefits from the mess.

Its not the Ukrainian
Its not Russia.
Its not the US. (At least not in the long term.)

The only winner I can think of is the PRC. It weakens the pacific pivot. It bring Russia even closer to the PRC.

The question that I an unable to answer is why needlessly provoke Russia & force-ably change the govt. That has less than 6 months to serve before fresh general election is called.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 04 Feb 2015 11:25

Pipeline politics. The only thing propping up the dollar now is hydrocarbons being traded in dollars.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Feb 2015 11:47

This is the surest way of removing the Dollar as a default oil trade currency and replace it with that of the PRC. As the Russians will love to show the Khans the raised Middle finger. Iran & Venezuela will follow suit. India will try and trade in its own currency, as far as possible.

So how is dollar helped??

Any way, this is not for this thread.

The basic point I am trying to understand is why take this step.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Feb 2015 11:58

^^ ukraine processes were not of global significance, it was a local resource grab. Once $5-10B were invested, a fire sale was necessary. Regular elections would have returned yanukovich and status quo. Once the situation blew up, containment has been difficult due to stake holders needing diagonally opposite returns.

The "western investers" cant be seen as defeated. Recall that in defeat people let out all sorts of records and secrets. Victors write the history, and no one wants to be labelled the next butcher or hitler.

The civility of white people dont kill orthodox white people having lapsed, it is a free for all. For once some non-money interests have the upper hand, and this is the first time since late eighties.

Now, it doesnt matter how anything started or what little event took place and when. It is a proper civil war as vice and the like of nageshk, deans, and rsoami report.

The prize after debaltesevo is a cave full of every weapon possible. Proper video game, with prizes in underground levels. Power ups, weapons, the lot.

edit -- dont go looking for ukraine videos, there is some really disturbing war footage out there. will stick with you.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 04 Feb 2015 14:52

UlanBatori wrote:Hundreds of Peaceful pro-Democracy Protestors crushed by steel-helmeted jack-booted Neo-Bazi Baptists in brutal Kiev junta attack

Kiev junta is obviously very popular.

The junta is unpopular but its not the masses who were involved in the protest. Its the voluntary battalions. They are suffereing reverses in the east and are turning on Kiev.
The Kiev junta has to do the fine balancing act between supporting the fascists, as it is they who are actually fighting in the east and showing that they oppose the fascist ideology for considerations of foreign aid.
The overkill of the anti-hitler propaganda means that US and west will find it difficult to sell support to an overtly fascist regime to their population.

The role of the Kiev police chief is going to be crucial. He has been carefuly chosen. He himself is deputy commander of a neo nazi voluntary battalion. They probably chose him to ensure that the general people wouldnt depose the fascist junta. But now the threat is from the other direction. Interesting times ahead.