Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Vipul » 09 Apr 2015 21:21

Mutually acceptable means that India will also have to compromise: Either a higher price or watered down TOT clauses. Either way French would have a better deal then what they promised 3 years ago!!!!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby putnanja » 09 Apr 2015 21:51

I am sure Modi doesn't want to start off trip with negative news of dropping Rafale. What he said is the truth. It is still in discussion & may drag on for couple more years :)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby srin » 09 Apr 2015 22:02

The concept of ToT itself is diluted. For instance, say we sign the deal for 126 planes. Eight years later, would we be capable of building the 127th Rafale without co-operation from the French ? If yes, that's the ToT we need. If no, and I suspect that is always the case , then it is already diluted.

ToT is an employment scheme - we will get just enough to build it here without having to ship every screw from France.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Vipul » 09 Apr 2015 23:27

That would be possible only if 100% TOT was made available (including building from the raw material stages). Even then after the quota of making 126 aircraft was used, we would still be liable to pay them a flat fee (Royalty) for every additional unit made.

In practical terms we should be targeting TOT in critical areas that we lack expertise in to help in our indigenous programs.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby partha » 09 Apr 2015 23:29

http://nitinagokhale.blogspot.com/2015/04/big-breakthrough-in-rafale-deal-likely.html
Thursday, April 9, 2015
Big breakthrough in Rafale deal likely

India is likely to buy about 60 Rafale combat jets from Dassault Aviation instead of 126 aircraft proposed in the original request for proposal (RFP) meant to be procured in under the process that began some eight years ago, highly placed sources told this writer.

The decision to buy nearly three and a half squadrons (between 60-63 aircraft) of Rafale jets for the Indian Air Force (IAF) was taken at the highest political level hours before Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on his three-nation tour on Thursday, the sources added. Given the huge financial and operational implication, the government thought it prudent to take a strategic decision rather than leave it to a bureaucratic process.

The French are likely to be told of this decision by the Prime Minister himself when he meets President Francois Hollande in Paris on Friday.

Under the new proposal, the entire process for procuring 126 combat jets would be scrapped, sources revealed. A new G-to-G (government-to-government) contract is likely to be negotiated between New Delhi and Paris to buy around 60 Rafale jets in flyaway condition from France.

According to top sources, this approach is being adopted for two primary reasons: one, it is imperative that the IAF gets these jets as soon as possible in view of the fast depleting numbers and two, because the impasse in the price negotiations. The entire procurement procedure for the combat jets has turned into a chaotic process thanks to the indecision on part of the political leadership in the previous regime and some loopholes in the negotiations itself making it impossible for the government to arrive at a satisfactory solution.

India is likely to ask for lowering of the price per aircraft too when the G-to-G negotiations get underway. By ordering 60 aircraft to be manufactured in France itself, the government is also hoping to skirt the tricky issue of guaranteeing quality of work under Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), designated as the Lead Production Agency in India.

The government's drastic decision to scarp the torturous procurement process is aimed at augmenting the IAF's falling numbers as well as save about RS 60,000 crore in precious foreign exchange. The calculation is that the 60-odd aircraft would cost about RS 40-45000 crore to be paid out over next four-five years instead of over Rs one Lakh crore necessary to procure the original number of 126 combat jets.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_28911 » 09 Apr 2015 23:31

Nitin Gokhale is reporting breakthrough in Rafale deal with India ordering 60 Rafale in fly-away condition. The decision was taken at highest political level hours before PM embarked in his tour.

http://nitinagokhale.blogspot.in/2015/04/big-breakthrough-in-rafale-deal-likely.html?spref=tw&m=1

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_28990 » 09 Apr 2015 23:41

This is a great news if true. Just what I had expected.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_24580 » 09 Apr 2015 23:47

Disaster & worst possible outcome if its true. :eek: :(
Foreign exchange goes anyway with no addition to Indian industry. No TOT whatsoever. Wait till the time comes for upgrade and India shall pay double for an upgrade. So much for the Gujju negotiating skills.
No job or skill addition in India.

Keep pleasing the foreign masters. Nothing would ever come in return.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby RoyG » 10 Apr 2015 00:02

Sewak wrote:Disaster & worst possible outcome if its true. :eek: :(
Foreign exchange goes anyway with no addition to Indian industry. No TOT whatsoever. Wait till the time comes for upgrade and India shall pay double for an upgrade. So much for the Gujju negotiating skills.
No job or skill addition in India.

Keep pleasing the foreign masters. Nothing would ever come in return.


Who knows. Wait for the details.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Apr 2015 01:32

Waaw! Saalid Bollywood style dramabaazi wonlee! Rumor mills in full swing.

Should we now welcome Katrina to the menagerie? Still, if the price is low enough, this might be better than going for 40-60MKI in terms of reducing dependence on Rus while at the same time addressing the sqd strength issue because these are likely to come in quickly instead of HAL doing its normal song-dance and picking up the tempo in due time.

Such an option would also keep the chances for Tejas very good - plenty of room in the IAF stable yet.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 10 Apr 2015 01:36

If true, "India is likely to ask for lowering of the price per aircraft too when the G-to-G negotiations get underway."

The MMRCA tamasha has been scrapped with GoI doing a NEW deal. Just wait for the US to squeeze us for a similar parallel negotiation for the JSF. As long as we hid behind the procurement process, the US could only snarl quietly. If its a G2G buy, believe me, Frank Kendall and Ash Carter are getting on the plane.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 10 Apr 2015 01:42

^^"...- plenty of room in the IAF stable yet." They want one of each :) only limited by budget and space for spare parts storage (of course, there's that guy who's been hoarding rotor blades/blisks in his house for Su30 and he might have space).

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Apr 2015 01:52

^Well, we might as well get in touch with the Chinese - it seems only fair and proper that we have one type of fighter from every region. But no, that sentence was purely in the context of the LCA - there should be plenty of room for it in IAF stables otherwise this whole make in India bit is a joke. It will be devastating for all concerned if the Tejas does not find its way in IAF livery. But being optimistic, I see this as an opportunity for the LCA.

The only real losers in this case would be the IAF in that managing so many types would be their lot and headache, but then they have been pining for this bird...

In any case, if the US is going to flex its considerable muscle, I hope it is not the Shornet. Even the JSF is unlikely imvho, if it has to be, then more P8s might be the best buy.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Hitesh » 10 Apr 2015 01:55

If what Nitin Gokhale said is true, then i do not want the Rafales anymore. Just junk it and build more LCAs and MKIs. Get rid of the MiGs and replace them with more LCAs and MKIs. Get the economy of scale back.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Vipul » 10 Apr 2015 02:04

So new negotiations now for buying in fly-away condition at what price?

Why dont we just do a broadcast of "101 of screwing the Indian GOI in arms negotiations" ?

Sensible thing to do would be now use a couple of billion to set up a new plant to manufacture LCA. In big numbers with ELTA AESA and a half decent BVR it would be a good way to make up the Squadron numbers and avoid this criminal wastage of money.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 10 Apr 2015 02:15

If true, it's a good decision. I always said that the MRCA deal was too big with too many moving parts that would basically guarantee nothing ever happened.

If you need a gap-filler, just purchase it outright. If you need ToT on something, negotiate with the best in the market separately without being tied to the Rafale.

Of course it does make all the complaints about the US not being able to meet the ToT terms superfluous . . .

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 10 Apr 2015 02:17

Cain Marko wrote:^Well, we might as well get in touch with the Chinese - it seems only fair and proper that we have one type of fighter from every region. But no, that sentence was purely in the context of the LCA - there should be plenty of room for it in IAF stables otherwise this whole make in India bit is a joke. It will be devastating for all concerned if the Tejas does not find its way in IAF livery. But being optimistic, I see this as an opportunity for the LCA.

The only real losers in this case would be the IAF in that managing so many types would be their lot and headache, but then they have been pining for this bird...

In any case, if the US is going to flex its considerable muscle, I hope it is not the Shornet. Even the JSF is unlikely imvho, if it has to be, then more P8s might be the best buy.


The US is going to cast it in terms of interoperability with the USN, Japan, Oz and SOKO plus the FMS route for purchases. brar_w will confirm that the F-35a will have a flyaway cost of $85MM in 2018 dollars equal to $75MM in today's dollars. I forget whether this includes the engine at 13MM. Rafale is not going to come close on the price.

https://www.f35.com/about/fast-facts/cost

Again, if true. If true, someone just opened pandora's box. Maybe that's NaMo's strategy. Ease into a G2G deal with the French and then succumb to immense US pressure claiming no strategic way out.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Apr 2015 02:30

Well, it should be no surprise that the US will undercut any European hardware 9/10 times. Problem is there are many who are still very cautious about the reliability of the US as a supplier esp. when it comes to tip of the spear type hardware. The IN is the most willing, the IAF and Army, quite cautious.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 10 Apr 2015 02:36

Cain Marko wrote:Well, it should be no surprise that the US will undercut any European hardware 9/10 times. Problem is there are many who are still very cautious about the reliability of the US as a supplier esp. when it comes to tip of the spear type hardware. The IN is the most willing, the IAF and Army, quite cautious.


We will have to get over that fear because if the LCA is about numbers, we're already done given the GE f-414 engines. I think the same will be true of AMCA.

At this stage I think it's less about reliability and more about the anger we (especially those in the armed forces) feel about freebies to the Pakis that cause us hurt and make us spend money to counter.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Apr 2015 02:43

Could be, and that in itself is a pretty powerful reason..

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby RoyG » 10 Apr 2015 03:07

An outright buy of Rafales isn't really all that bad. We will be paying less per aircraft. Means that the government is going to put the rest of the money into Tejas and AMCA development. I see more Su-30's coming as well. Overall, Make-In-India will be getting a huge boost. Two things are a must: ENGINES and SENSORS

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby arshyam » 10 Apr 2015 03:14

Regarding the US fighters coming back into play and Ashton Carter jumping on a plane, etc., weren't both the US entries rejected by the IAF during their technical evaluations?

The report posted above didn't specifically say this, but looks like the govt seems to be junking the procurement process, not necessarily IAF's evaluation process, the latter resulting in choosing between the Eurofighter and the Rafale. It will actually be interesting to see how the Germans respond when Modi lands there next week.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Apr 2015 03:25

^ Good point. The EF2000 went to the Saudis for @ $ 10 billion for about 70 airframes a few years ago, my guess is the Rafale will cost as much for 60 birds.

RoyG wrote:An outright buy of Rafales isn't really all that bad. We will be paying less per aircraft. Means that the government is going to put the rest of the money into Tejas and AMCA development. I see more Su-30's coming as well. Overall, Make-In-India will be getting a huge boost. Two things are a must: ENGINES and SENSORS


Well, the engines and sensors wont come from abroad - they will need err, some homework. Why would the GOI now plump for more MKIs if it is getting the Rafales anyway? I always felt this is a rafale or mki type thing.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 10 Apr 2015 03:39

RoyG wrote:An outright buy of Rafales isn't really all that bad. We will be paying less per aircraft. Means that the government is going to put the rest of the money into Tejas and AMCA development. I see more Su-30's coming as well. Overall, Make-In-India will be getting a huge boost. Two things are a must: ENGINES and SENSORS

Paying less makes it a better deal but not necessarily a good one. To reiterate an oft repeated point, there's a good reason why the only success Rafale has had is with a military junta in the Middle East, and why Dassault has practically given up its marketing efforts in (Francophone) Europe.

arshyam wrote:Regarding the US fighters coming back into play and Ashton Carter jumping on a plane, etc., weren't both the US entries rejected by the IAF during their technical evaluations?

Not fighters. Fighter. Singular. One ulcer causing recent entry that's gouging the European fighter industry.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby arshyam » 10 Apr 2015 03:46

^^ You mean the F-35? If so, we'll have to wait to wait and see. Has the IAF said anything about it? I don't recall anything of the sort.

On second thought, would the GoI be willing to have the IAF evaluate the F-35? That will take more time, something the GoI wants to reduce going by the above report.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 10 Apr 2015 04:01

arshyam wrote:Regarding the US fighters coming back into play and Ashton Carter jumping on a plane, etc., weren't both the US entries rejected by the IAF during their technical evaluations?

The report posted above didn't specifically say this, but looks like the govt seems to be junking the procurement process, not necessarily IAF's evaluation process, the latter resulting in choosing between the Eurofighter and the Rafale. It will actually be interesting to see how the Germans respond when Modi lands there next week.


Rhetoric aside, Ash Carter or Frank kendall know what the ground situation is. The F-16 or F-18 are towards the end of their lives, and the F-35 has no chance in the IAF context. There is likely to be no significant pitch for these aircraft. I have been long advocating a Rafale purchase directly from the lines in France. Its the cheapest way to get capability into the squadrons and back they go to developing the LCA and AMCA. In the strategic context the Rafale and PAKFA are nothing more than gap_fillers until the LCA and AMCA are fully mature and available in numbers.

40 Billion for two fighter types (120 odd Rafales, 180 odd PAKFA's) is more per jet then even the top airfares pay for their bread and butter fighters..and the only way to reverse that curve is to develop the LCA and AMCA at war footing.
Last edited by brar_w on 10 Apr 2015 04:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Indranil » 10 Apr 2015 04:01

Mixed feelings, mostly negative though.

1. Pro: 1 bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush (literally in this case). Diversity is good, especially, when it means being diversely dependent.
2. Cons: How does IAF define a 'critical requirement'? If 60 planes will do instead of 120 "critically required planes", then IAF just gave a lot of fodder to all those guys who say MMRCA was critically required in 20001-4. In 2015, they can be replaced by a mix of LCA/Su-30s.
A key justification of getting a Rafale was the production tech. Really sad to see it go. It would have helped with the AMCA.

P.S. To all those who hate HAL's unionbazi, should read more about France.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 10 Apr 2015 04:06

arshyam wrote:^^ You mean the F-35? If so, we'll have to wait to wait and see. Has the IAF said anything about it? I don't recall anything of the sort.

Personally I think Nitin Gokhale may have been misinformed and the GoI is likely to sign it as it is, or let the deal die a natural death.

On other hand if he's right and the ToT/local production rigmarole is out the window, plenty of possibilities arise. I'm betting Eurofighter too will want to put in a revised bid in light of change in circumstances. After all, it did clear the IAF's technical evaluation along with the Rafale.

On second thought, would the GoI be willing to have the IAF evaluate the F-35? That will take more time, something the GoI wants to reduce going by the above report.

If the MMRCA is dead, then this a whole new deal. Which means a whole new contract with a new aircraft configuration, new support arrangements, new price negotiation, new offset conditions and so on. With all the political will in the world, this isn't something the PM can conclude within the duration of his visit to France. How much time would you save by skipping the user evaluation of an aircraft? You could measure that in weeks (days if MoD/AFHQ were to move quickly).

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 10 Apr 2015 04:18

brar_w wrote:I have been long advocating a Rafale purchase directly from the lines in France. Its the cheapest way to get capability into the squadrons and back they go to developing the LCA and AMCA.

Actually, the cheapest way to get capability in the squadrons is induct the Tejas in greater numbers and optionally supplement the Su-30MKI order book. The only utility of a limited off-the-shelf Rafale contingent if for as a force multiplier/strategic asset and at that role, the Rafale is outperformed by newer aircraft (including but not limited to the F-35).

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby nachiket » 10 Apr 2015 04:39

This is getting ridiculous now (if Nitin Gokhale is actually right). If they are going to buy just 60 aircraft why for heaven's sake introduce yet another fighter type into the IAF circus? Just buy/build 60 more MKI's and be done with it. Spend the rest of the money on stocking extra spares and building more overhaul facilities to improve the MKI's availability. Or spend it on a kick-a$$ MLU for the MKI's, more LCA Mk1's, BMW's for IAF staff to zip around in, anything but the Rafale.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Singha » 10 Apr 2015 06:03

I would support but only if at same time pm funds and asks the iaf to pickup 66 more tejas mk1 in parallel. Else scrap the whole deal.

The endless trials on Tejas to get to some perfect foc before iaf touches it with a long pole is ridiculous.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 10 Apr 2015 07:29

partha wrote:http://nitinagokhale.blogspot.com/2015/04/big-breakthrough-in-rafale-deal-likely.html
Thursday, April 9, 2015
Big breakthrough in Rafale deal likely

India is likely to buy about 60 Rafale combat jets from Dassault Aviation instead of 126 aircraft proposed in the original request for proposal (RFP) meant to be procured in under the process that began some eight years ago, highly placed sources told this writer.

The decision to buy nearly three and a half squadrons (between 60-63 aircraft) of Rafale jets for the Indian Air Force (IAF) was taken at the highest political level hours before Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on his three-nation tour on Thursday, the sources added. Given the huge financial and operational implication, the government thought it prudent to take a strategic decision rather than leave it to a bureaucratic process.

The French are likely to be told of this decision by the Prime Minister himself when he meets President Francois Hollande in Paris on Friday.

Under the new proposal, the entire process for procuring 126 combat jets would be scrapped, sources revealed. A new G-to-G (government-to-government) contract is likely to be negotiated between New Delhi and Paris to buy around 60 Rafale jets in flyaway condition from France.

According to top sources, this approach is being adopted for two primary reasons: one, it is imperative that the IAF gets these jets as soon as possible in view of the fast depleting numbers and two, because the impasse in the price negotiations. The entire procurement procedure for the combat jets has turned into a chaotic process thanks to the indecision on part of the political leadership in the previous regime and some loopholes in the negotiations itself making it impossible for the government to arrive at a satisfactory solution.

India is likely to ask for lowering of the price per aircraft too when the G-to-G negotiations get underway. By ordering 60 aircraft to be manufactured in France itself, the government is also hoping to skirt the tricky issue of guaranteeing quality of work under Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), designated as the Lead Production Agency in India.

The government's drastic decision to scarp the torturous procurement process is aimed at augmenting the IAF's falling numbers as well as save about RS 60,000 crore in precious foreign exchange. The calculation is that the 60-odd aircraft would cost about RS 40-45000 crore to be paid out over next four-five years instead of over Rs one Lakh crore necessary to procure the original number of 126 combat jets.


Man.. the MMRCA saga.. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
---

And then IAF will procure 1 squadron more. And one more. And one more. In 2025 CAG will ask "why was HAL not making these and why were offsets etc etc etc ignored along with DPP-XXXX"

What a farce. Seems more like a decision to meet IAF complaints/needs when GOI is short of $$$ to meet the 126 aircraft bill.

At least IAF gets the Rafale. :|

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 10 Apr 2015 07:33

Singha wrote:I would support but only if at same time pm funds and asks the iaf to pickup 66 more tejas mk1 in parallel. Else scrap the whole deal.

The endless trials on Tejas to get to some perfect foc before iaf touches it with a long pole is ridiculous.


Ghar ki murgi daal barabar

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 10 Apr 2015 07:46

Nitin Gokhale wrote:India is likely to ask for lowering of the price per aircraft too when the G-to-G negotiations get underway. By ordering 60 aircraft to be manufactured in France itself, the government is also hoping to skirt the tricky issue of guaranteeing quality of work under Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), designated as the Lead Production Agency in India.

The government's drastic decision to scarp the torturous procurement process is aimed at augmenting the IAF's falling numbers as well as save about RS 60,000 crore in precious foreign exchange. The calculation is that the 60-odd aircraft would cost about RS 40-45000 crore to be paid out over next four-five years instead of over Rs one Lakh crore necessary to procure the original number of 126 combat jets.


Rs 45,000 crore equals $7.5 billion. Which makes the 'hoped-for' procurement cost of a flyaway Rafale approximately $125 million per unit (including support & training). Given that the Egyptians are paying nearly $4bn for their 24 Rafales (unit cost - $170 million), the MoD may find its hope of a cheap direct acquisition dashed when the (new set) of cost negotiations begin. Not to mention the cost of the weapons complement, which will be excruciating as well.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 10 Apr 2015 07:51

If this article is true.. it will boil down to
The MOD's procurement wing

Image

French on the other hand

Image

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby partha » 10 Apr 2015 07:53

I think the article's claim is true. Nitin Gokhale seems to be well connected with the new GoI.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_20067 » 10 Apr 2015 08:20

NDTV is reporting the same

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 10 Apr 2015 08:24

By reporting it before the visit, have they sabotaged it?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Guddu » 10 Apr 2015 08:37

Is it not possible, that an outright sale has been under discussion for a while, and the info is only being released now.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Apr 2015 08:45

Viv S wrote: I'm betting Eurofighter too will want to put in a revised bid in light of change in circumstances. After all, it did clear the IAF's technical evaluation along with the Rafale.


Heh heh, on cue

"The consortium stands ready with their proposal. The governments of the four nations are supporting this proposal because they are convinced it is a good one both in terms of quality of the product and price," Mr Steiner told reporters.


http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ready-to ... ce=taboola


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