Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

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Philip
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 15 Apr 2015 10:59

Ramana,yes he did.He never considered/mentioned any plan B or other options.Some of the panelists tried to look at the decision from both sides but not him.The original decision was made (said the anchor)during his tenure as air chief.

$4B,$5B now $6B! The cost of the aircraft is going up by the day!

More media reports:
TOI:
More shocks to come,Tejas to be dumped for "another single-engine aircraft"?
In this TOI report,commenting upon tejas being the replacement for the MIG-21s and the waiting period for it has come down to months,there is a subtle hint that if Tejas does not "make the cut",there are alternatives.

TOI:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 927120.cms
For LCA Tejas, it’s now about months, not decades
Rajat Pandit,TNN | Apr 15, 2015

NEW DELHI: India's defence R&D establishment will have to fire on all cylinders to fast-track the meandering Tejas light combat aircraft, which is still not fully operational or combat ready, if it does not want the Narendra Modi government to critically re-examine the entire project.

The Tejas project, in fact, may even get some competition in the light-weight fighter category. Defence minister Manohar Parrikar said "some other single-engine, lighter fighter" other than the home-grown Tejas could also be considered for a "Make in India" project to replace the obsolete MiG-21s.

Restricting the acquisition of expensive twin-engine French Rafale fighters to just 36 for now, instead of the original plan for 126 MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft), Parrikar stressed he was trying to plug operational gaps in airpower by improving serviceability of "heavy-weight" Sukhoi-30MKIs as well as "pushing" the DRDO-HAL combine to deliver Tejas faster.

READ ALSO: Tejas achieves another accomplishment in Ladakh

"Don't compare Rafale, a top-end fighter, to MiG-21s, which we will phase out in about six to 10 years. The replacement for MiG-21s will be Tejas or some other single-engine, lighter aircraft. Tejas ki maar bhi kaafi hai (Tejas packs a punch) and it's much better than a MiG-21, but has certain limitations," said Parrikar.

Though some interpreted this to mean impending doom for the Tejas project, a top official dismissed it by clarifying the government was "just keeping all options open" to make "numbers" with IAF down to just 34 fighter squadrons when 44 are needed. "There could be scope for a single-engine fighter, which would be much cheaper than Rafale, somewhere between the capabilities of Rafale and Tejas," he said.

Incidentally, the original plan was that six squadrons each of MMRCA and Tejas would replace the existing 10 Mig-21 and four MiG-27 squadrons. Parrikar, on his part, said, "In the next four to five years, we can add about six LCA squadrons if we push HAL, which I am doing."

DRDO-HAL will certainly need to be pushed on the Tejas project since it's critical for self-reliance in defence production. The first Tejas was handed over to IAF on January 17 but it was in "initial operational configuration (IOC)", which signifies its airworthy but not combat-ready. The pilot training and maintenance manuals are also still not ready, delaying its actual induction into IAF.

READ ALSO: India finally gets indigenous LCA Tejas

The fighter's final operational clearance (FOC), with integration of all weapons like guns, laser-guided bombs and BVR (beyond visual range) missiles as well mid-air refuelling capability, is likely to be delayed beyond the re-revised deadline of December 2015.

The Tejas Mark-II version which the IAF actually wants — with more powerful engines, airframe changes, weight and drag reduction — will begin to come in only by 2021 or so. So, Parrikar will need to do a lot of pushing if he wants swifter deliveries of the multi-role fighters.


Asian Age:

http://www.asianage.com/columnists/made ... t-take-838
Made in India or not, IAF set to take off
Apr 15, 2015
Some people say that the announcement in Paris was a camouflage for transferring the Indian production of Rafale from HAL to the private sector, most probably to Reliance Industries Limited
.
Immediately after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision in Paris to buy 36 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft in a “fly-away” condition off the shelf, defence minister Manohar Parrikar declared that this would bring “minimum oxygen” to the Indian Air Force that is dangerously short of equipment for its operational necessities. He was not exaggerating a bit. Although a succession of Air Chiefs have been lamenting about the pathetic and deteriorating state of the Air Force inventory, the grave ground reality hasn’t registered even on policy makers, leave alone the people at large.

The number of combat squadrons with the IAF today are fewer than what were considered “minimum necessary” more than half a century ago, after the traumatic defeat in the border war with China in the high Himalayas.

The only modern squadrons in the IAF now are those of Sukhoi-30 MKI. A large number of MiG-21s and MiG-27s are obsolescent and must be retired before the end of 2017. Mercifully, the manufacturers of Rafale, Dassault Aviation, and perhaps the French government, have assured this country that the 36 Rafales in fly-away condition would be delivered within two years. Moreover, the terms on which the 36 aircraft are being acquired seem very favourable. According to reports, the 36 Rafales will cost us around $4 billion. Only recently, Egypt bought 24 Rafales at over $5 billion.

However, the critical question is whether the long-delayed deal with France for the supply of 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) still stands or something else will take its place. It was way back in 2007 that decision-makers in New Delhi finally agreed that as many MMRCAs were needed and the search must begin. Given the huge size of the prize, roughly $20 billion, competition was brisk and no holds were barred. The Indian proposal made it clear that only 18 aircraft will be imported off the shelf and the rest 108 produced in India after transfer of technology. It was in January 2012 that the French Rafale was chosen. Other competitors made no secret of their great displeasure. For instance, a top American official told his Indian counterpart privately, “123 (as the Hyde Act on the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation is called) should have been matched by 126. But you haven’t delivered it.” Instead of welcoming the Indian decision and converting it into a contract speedily, the French side became obstructive. The matter has been in a quagmire for three long years.

There seem to be three views on the subject at present. One is that a major breakthrough in relations with France having taken place, the deal held up hitherto should be speeded up to strengthen strategic, economic and political relations with an important European country that, together with Germany, plays a significant role in the European Union. Of the two sticking points one is, of course, pricing. The other relates to the production of Rafale in India after the transfer of technology that will be somewhat smaller in number than contemplated originally. Dassault Aviation just does not accept that the state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) can be its partner in production in India. It indeed refuses to take “full responsibility” for the fighters made by HAL or for the “inevitable hike” in their production cost. Those who want this problem to be sorted out somehow argue that a rapid expansion of relationship with France is needed because it would be to India’s advantage.

In addition to fighter jets, India also needs as many as six nuclear reactors from the French nuclear major Areva for installation at Jaitapur in Maharashtra. This import will be facilitated if there is an agreement on Rafale.

The second view, shared by many, is best expressed by Admiral Arun Prakash (Retd), a former Navy Chief who was also a member of the Naresh Chandra Task Force on National Security appointed by the Manmohan Singh government in 2011. He points out in a commentary on Rafale that a protracted delay in taking a clear decision will do unto the Air Force what the Scorpene submarine deal did to the Navy. The French company concerned cited some fine print from the contract that had already been signed. The result: a delay in production and an increase in costs.

Some say emphatically that the announcement in Paris was a camouflage for transferring the Indian production of Rafale from HAL to the private sector, most probably to Reliance Industries Limited, owned by Mukesh Ambani. He had indeed signed a memorandum of understanding with Dassault for “cooperation in aviation industry” during the time of the previous government.

Foreign direct investment in defence production projects is part of this country’s policy. Mr Modi’s “Make in India” doctrine has given it a big boost. Indeed, it is being said that in the nuclear industry, Areva’s Indian partners are likely to be Larsen & Toubro and/or the Tatas.

The third view, which has weight and needs to be considered by the government at the highest level, can be summed up as follows: We are now getting 36 Rafales based on the most modern technology. The number of our Sukhoi-30s will soon be 280. Let us concentrate on these and the Light Combat Aircraft Tejas, which should have been ready in 1990s but is available now and should be produced in large numbers. As is inevitable in every situation in India, there is a problem. The Air Force, like the other two defence services, does not like home product and wants imported hardware. The politicians, not the bureaucracy of the defence ministry, must act to change this mindset.

And, of course, we will also have fifth-generation fighter aircraft at our disposal soon. This was supposed to be designed and developed jointly by Russia and India. To quote Admiral Prakash again, “Two prototypes of it are flying in Russia; Indian contribution to both is zero.”


*Adm.Prakash's views are exactly what many have bene pointing out,that the "Dassault delay" was another "Scorpene sting"!
Greater delay,higher escalated costs.

The Hindu:
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/f ... 328.eceThe key is technology, not money

The key is technology, not money
Updated: April 15, 2015 04:16 IST
D. Raghunandan

“The prolonged delay over finalising the Rafale deal was reportedly over disputes about the role of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.” Picture shows Rafale jet fighters in the Dassault factory in Merignac near Bordeaux, France.

Reuters
“The prolonged delay over finalising the Rafale deal was reportedly over disputes about the role of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.” Picture shows Rafale jet fighters in the Dassault factory in Merignac near Bordeaux, France.

If self-reliance in defence is the stated goal, FDI is no solution. India must apply the same tools it did so successfully in space and nuclear science to acquire and develop military technology.

India’s notorious dependence on imported military hardware and the near moribund state of large parts of its public sector defence industry represent a full-blown crisis crying for a solution. India is the world’s largest arms importer and, with at least two decades of not replacing or upgrading obsolescent equipment through either purchases or indigenous manufacture, is on course now to spend around $30 billion in the next few years, and $200 billion in the medium term. For some years now, from the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance government in 2001 onwards, the government has been veering towards increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence manufacturing as a solution to the defence crisis.

The present Bharatiya Janata Party government, despite its rallying ‘Make in India’ cry, has further increased the FDI limit in defence, with 49 per cent now permitted under the automatic route, 75 per cent where technology transfer is involved, and up to 100 per cent in cases involving significant new technology. While some Indian companies are wary of the entry of foreign players, most favour opening up the sector with an eye to the potentially lucrative business opportunities they see opening up.

For and against FDI

The arguments in favour of FDI in defence are familiar. First, public sector companies in defence, Research and Development and allied industries have consistently failed to meet the requirements of the armed forces, especially given the global revolution in military technology. Second, the superior management culture of the private sector will ensure better adherence to budgets and timelines. Third, the country is compelled into repeated imports without any technology transfer (despite contractual obligations) because the military is always urgently in need of the technology. Therefore, the argument goes, encouraging foreign companies to invest in Indian defence and set up industries here will mean that money will be spent within the country, generating jobs and bringing in new know-how, with the possibility of export

“ All the liberalised provisions since 2001 have led to a meagre inflow of only $4.8 billion, in an overall FDI inflow of around $334 billion.”
In my opinion, none of these arguments address the specific and unique needs of the defence sector in India. Whatever else these measures might achieve, they will not help accomplish what must surely be the main goal, namely to build self-reliance in advanced military technology and reduce India’s debilitating dependence on foreign suppliers in the area of national security.

The FDI inflow itself tells a tale. All the liberalised provisions since 2001 have led to a meagre inflow of only $4.8 billion, in an overall FDI inflow of around $334 billion. It may be argued that it is too early to judge, but there are actually good reasons why defence companies do not and will not find FDI in another country attractive, and why there are few such examples across the world.

FDI means a long-term presence in India, and good returns on investment are possible only if repeat orders or contracts for newer models are assured. But, unlike cars or white goods, that will not always happen in military equipment. There may be gaps of many years or even decades between orders. For instance, India bought the Mirage 2000 in the 1980s and has clinched the Rafale deal this year, both from Dassault of France. In France itself, however, Dassault is reasonably assured of continuous business from regular domestic and European orders, as well as from staggered exports. Foreign subsidiaries or substantial FDI will, thus, always put pressure on India for repeat orders. Would dependence on a Lockheed Martin (India) or a Bharat Boeing be really very different from dependence on the U.S. principals?

Yes, more of India’s money will be spent in India rather than in other countries. But the Defence Procurement Policy anyway mandates 30 per cent offsets (50 per cent in high-value contracts). In other words, the supplier must spend 30 per cent of the contracted value within India through local manufacture and services. On the other hand, even if manufacture were by an Indian subsidiary, some specialised technology or components will always need to be imported. As is the case in car manufacture by Korean or Japanese subsidiaries in India, where numerous models that sell in smaller volumes are only assembled in India with imported components. FDI may, therefore, not be so different from offsets in terms of local manufacture, jobs, or money spent.

Where is the technology?

It is often simplistically assumed, unfortunately by policymakers too, that FDI will bring in technology. Nothing could be farther from the truth. All foreign defence majors have protested continually against offsets, and have pressured India into diluting offset requirements one way or another. While they might cite logistical or other issues, the real anxiety is about sharing and losing control over technology, especially if the offset partner in India is a public company whose bargaining power would be greater than that of a private sector junior partner. The delay over finalising the Rafale deal was reportedly over disputes about the role of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

“ It is often simplistically assumed, unfortunately by policymakers too, that FDI will bring in technology.”
India’s confidence in FDI draws a facile equation between foreign investment, local manufacturing and technology inflow. The key, however, is not money but technology. Technology transfer is elusive. It requires not just a clause in a contract, but in the recipient taking determined measures to ensure acquisition and absorption of technology. India has been singularly poor at that, some conspiracy theorists say, deliberately so. Further, domestic manufacturing has not in itself enabled it either. India has a long history of licensed manufacture of defence hardware, from the heydays of the self-reliance credo, the import substitution drives, and the famous “be Indian, buy Indian” slogan. In aircraft, for example, the famous Gnat fighter, the MiG series, the Jaguar, and various French helicopters were made here. In each case, the degree of indigenisation kept rising, sometimes reaching 90 per cent by value, but critical components or materials continued to be imported. India never achieved the stated goal of acquiring the capability to make the next upgrade or new model on its own. True indigenisation cannot happen just through local manufacture, India has to make it happen, but has not yet done so.

The present offsets policy is similarly not being used purposefully to acquire technology. Offsets are viewed in financial terms — money spent locally and jobs created. Instead, offset projects should be studied strategically — Indian scientists and companies acquiring the capability to independently develop and manufacture sophisticated military hardware. To rephrase, the goal should be ‘Made by India’, not merely ‘Make in India’. This is true for all technology, but crucial in defence. India has done it in space and nuclear technology. Why not in defence?

FDI in defence is an incorrect answer to wrong questions, a false solution to problems not posed properly. If self-reliance can be achieved in the strategic fields of space and nuclear technology, through dogged pursuit and by creating institutions of excellence with political support, there is no reason why it cannot be done in the equally strategic area of military hardware. India even has a Minister of State for Defence Production but nobody seems to know what the office is meant to do.

No self-respecting nation of India’s size and technological capability can or should accept dependence on foreign manufacturers for defence requirements, whether directly through imports or indirectly through FDI. This is not just about national prestige but a matter of vital national interest.

(D. Raghunandan is with the Delhi Science Forum and is President, All India People’s Science Network. E-mail: raghunandan.d@gmail.com)


PS:Will this deal henceforth be known not as the Rafale deal but as the Reliance deal?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 15 Apr 2015 11:06

Pssss ..... I read somewhere that the latest deal for Rafale was worth$7.5 billion. (Who knows it might even top $20 billion someday?!!)

Better a Reliance deal than a Rafale or a Russian deal.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kmkraoind » 15 Apr 2015 11:14

"It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice."

I am okay if it is called Rafale deal or Reliance or TATA-Mahindra consortium deal as long as the bird is produced in India, at fixed cost and time schedule. Just give entrepreneurial Indians the exposure and knowledge, and they will build MIC in India within a short span of time.
Last edited by kmkraoind on 15 Apr 2015 11:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby DexterM » 15 Apr 2015 11:18

Welcome to the BJP's Bofors scandal. Govt to Govt or Reliance to Namo, doesn't matter.

They have lost already lost the battle of perception. And even though I know how fcuked up media is, I feel this "awesome deal onlee for 36 - much cheaper than RFP, and we'l consider another light fighter that is manufactured in India" is the death knell for the khadigramudyog hawaii-industry.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 15 Apr 2015 11:23

Not bad for a government that is 1 year into its term. Good job NaMo and we expect more tough decisions from you.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chetak » 15 Apr 2015 11:24

pankajs wrote:Pssss ..... I read somewhere that the latest deal for Rafale was worth$7.5 billion. (Who knows it might even top $20 billion someday?!!)

Better a Reliance deal than a Rafale or a Russian deal.


reliance is the joker in the pack. unpredictable and totally money driven to the exclusion of all else. very prone to direct political interference in the government of the day and the constant moving of goal posts to reap tactical financial advantage under every circumstance.

the KG-D6 basin imbroglio is just one case in point.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Singha » 15 Apr 2015 11:29

I think the long delays in weapons and radar mode qualifications is because none have ever done this in india and no vendor makes these weapons in india.
we do not have the data banks nor the trained pool of seniors who have done multiple cycles...everyone is learning on the job.

guns - we must have done it for Marut, but those people are long retired. what effect the vibrations will have on durability of the hull is a new area. and the gun is russian.
BVR missiles - I assume its derby and its integration to EL2032 to start with - again israeli help needed. astra is chugging along but far from ready
LGB - again litening and israeli kits their help needed if any errors are seen
wake penetration test - no reports on this
night sorties - no reports on this
air to air refueling - no reports on this - will the Mk1 have a probe fitted or deferred for 1.5 ?

in general the last 10% of any proj even in ITvity is the hardest to close down and takes >>10% effort . so I can understand the delays but solns need to be found, boots need to be applied to OEMs doing foot dragging and we need to make the FOC by Dec 2015 at ANY COST

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_23694 » 15 Apr 2015 11:31

DexterM wrote:Welcome to the BJP's Bofors scandal. Govt to Govt or Reliance to Namo, doesn't matter.


Wow where did this come from :shock:
OT :
BTW I don't mind a big corporate having great lobby developing advanced fighter for the country like LM rather than the normal stuff available right now

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby geeth » 15 Apr 2015 11:39

The idiotic press don,t know from their elbow to ar$e what is going on about this deal..All that has happened is declaration of intent by GOI. Anything can happen in the future...May be they will go for 36 planes only..May be 126 or may be manufactured locally in various combo..May be NaMo tricked the French into a situation wherein they can neither refuse or accept the deal..the price quoted May not be acceptable ti India and even purchase of 36 is cancelled..May be Germans offer to set shop in India...THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES.

I find all those wailing at the drop of a hat don't bother to acknowledge that their criticism was unwarranted or appreciate the better deal that may come in future. This has become the most favourite destination to abuse everyone without any basis..what is most interesting is their clutching on to media speculation as gospel truth, who otherwise spend most of their time cursing that very same media

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby geeth » 15 Apr 2015 11:42

This big corporates taking over manufacturing and monopolising it is not a panacea either...We would become like the United States military, where a toilet seat could cost $64000/-

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby RoyG » 15 Apr 2015 11:55

geeth wrote:This big corporates taking over manufacturing and monopolising it is not a panacea either...We would become like the United States military, where a toilet seat could cost $64000/-


As opposed to having a hole in the ground like right now? Corporates are in control of manufacturing in other countries like Japan, France, South Korea, South Africa, etc. All nonsense.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby DexterM » 15 Apr 2015 11:57

dhiraj wrote:
DexterM wrote:Welcome to the BJP's Bofors scandal. Govt to Govt or Reliance to Namo, doesn't matter.


Wow where did this come from :shock:
OT :
BTW I don't mind a big corporate having great lobby developing advanced fighter for the country like LM rather than the normal stuff available right now

That lobby can rally media but not suppliers. What will you do with these folks? Wait for ten years for them to catch up?
And you didn't quote the entire post of mine - why? Did you read the next line - It clearly states this is a battle of perception and the role of Media that we're talking about. What part of that surprises you?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 15 Apr 2015 12:08

The "R" chief's presence in France during the PM's visit ,holding talks with the French aviation industry speaks for itself. The abandoning of a major part of the Indian defence sector to pvt. industry for purposes of pelf would be a betrayal of national interest.As the Hindu article says,if we could succeed with our nuclear and space development,where no nation significantly helped us achieve what we've achieved,why can't the same be done with defence?

The suspicion remains that certain key projects have deliberately been on the slowburner so that the interests of firang defence MNCs and their "partners" in the Indian establishment are not affected. The Tatra scam is just one example showing the alleged connivance of a key DPSU and a friang co.

One would wish that a clear statement comes form the DM as to how the "make/made in India" mantra is going to be pursued esp. with regard to the aerospace industry after this deal,and the future of HAL built aircraft like the Tejas and MKI,FGFA,AMCA, whatever.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chaanakya » 15 Apr 2015 12:12

Reference to Bofors scandal is unwarranted . Is there any material to suggest it?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 15 Apr 2015 12:36

I too buy into the suspicion that certain key projects have deliberately been on the slowburner so that the interests of firang defence MNCs are advanced.

* Take the case of Arjun MBT. Who benefited?
* Take the TOT wrt T-90 Tanks. Who benefited when Avdhi couldn't churn out adequate numbers and tanks had to be imported over and above the initial lot?
* Take the case of Su 30 MKI TOT. Who benefited when more MKI had to be directly imported after the initial lot?
* I could go on and on on other deals that were supposed to have resulted in indigenous production but resulted in imports again and again after the initial lot.

I agree we have witnessed enough natasha tamasha. And all this while upholding *national interest* of keeping everything with public sector. Q is who's *national interest* are we talking about?

Oh ... btw wasn't there a call for imports of more Naval ships on this very board, from natasha while Indian private yards idle, all in the name of *national interest*?!!

Wah re national interest that results in foreign orders again and again of the SAME goods AFTER TOT!!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby geeth » 15 Apr 2015 12:50

[quote As opposed to having a hole in the ground like right now? Corporates are in control of manufacturing in other countries like Japan, France, South Korea, South Africa, etc. All nonsense./quote]

Could you please elaborate on the nonsense part..I am eager to learn. After that pls also explain why Tatra chief is absconding.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 15 Apr 2015 13:01

The "call for import" of naval ships came from the IN itself.not from this board! The reason given that the DPSU shipyards were overloaded with orders and were experiencing huge delays and cost-overruns. Secondly,the number mentioned is just 3 Talwar FFGs.Almost the entire requirement of naval vessels from carriers to patrol craft (barring some specialized auxiliaries) is being built in India.The Pvt. yards too have been given orders as can be seen from various lists put out,corresponding to their capability. The DM is reportedly off to SoKo to finalise the MCM requirement,hanging fire for years.

Where the DPSUs have failed,and the jury is still out whether a "slowburner' attitude was put in place deliberately,by holding back funding,raising the performance bar repeatedly (Arjun) etc.,etc. ,pvt industry must naturally step in.There's enough of the cake for both DPSUs and the pvt. sector. We've spent trillions in establishing the DRDO and its various DPSUs.What is required is better focus on its core responsibilities and vastly improved management.Why can't some of those individuals who've been responsible for our space,missile and nuclear successes tasked with overseeing the management of the DPSUs/programmes?

A funny thought came to me about the MMRCA deal. The US was very angered about the Rafale being chosen as "India has preferred a technical choice over a relationship". With the decision to buy the Rafale G-to-G,it seems that we have just chosen a relationship over more cost-effective alternatives!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 15 Apr 2015 13:40

a rafale production line in india by Reliance industries .. Make in india ! But no doubt ..not made in india ..how does this pan out !! :evil:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Singha » 15 Apr 2015 13:41

is there a link to the IN calling for importing 3 more talwars?

the report I read had the russian shipyard expressing an interest and readiness and claiming they were in talks with IN.

I suspect its the same way gripen and ef are in talks with the iaf now.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 15 Apr 2015 13:42

That's most definitely the follow on deal.MRCA is dead.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 15 Apr 2015 13:43

Maybe we can close this thread and call HAL names ..till LCA too is jacked !

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby alexis » 15 Apr 2015 14:34

Whichever way i look at it, it seems a bad step.

1) If MMRCA buy is still on, then this reduces our bargaining capability and will result in

2) If MMRCA buy is off, we would have been better off buying some existing type - Mig, Su or Mirage! All this would add is logistical complexity.

if this was entirely abandoned, it would have been better as it would have resulted in further LCA mk1 buys. now IAF will continue to ask for the moon from LCA mk1/2 and we would buy another lot of Rafales to provide "oxygen" to IAF. This evokes memory of acquisition under previous UPA government.

This kind of acquisition (just like T90) will lead to death of indigenous products.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 15 Apr 2015 15:06

alexis wrote:Whichever way i look at it, it seems a bad step.

1) If MMRCA buy is still on, then this reduces our bargaining capability and will result in

2) If MMRCA buy is off, we would have been better off buying some existing type - Mig, Su or Mirage! All this would add is logistical complexity.

if this was entirely abandoned, it would have been better as it would have resulted in further LCA mk1 buys. now IAF will continue to ask for the moon from LCA mk1/2 and we would buy another lot of Rafales to provide "oxygen" to IAF. This evokes memory of acquisition under previous UPA government.

This kind of acquisition (just like T90) will lead to death of indigenous products.


It seems an analysis of available informations looks like

1) MRCA in the form of HAL / Dassault co production is dead
2) More Rafales can come but as a G to G deal
3) The Rafales on order could be specialized delivery platforms optimized for SEAD / nuclear delivery
4) Govt is not putting a lot of faith in HAL s ability to deliver .. this has dovetailed into thinking of other options for LCA and Reliance for Rafale

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 15 Apr 2015 15:09

alexis wrote:Whichever way i look at it, it seems a bad step.

1) If MMRCA buy is still on, then this reduces our bargaining capability and will result in

2) If MMRCA buy is off, we would have been better off buying some existing type - Mig, Su or Mirage! All this would add is logistical complexity.

if this was entirely abandoned, it would have been better as it would have resulted in further LCA mk1 buys. now IAF will continue to ask for the moon from LCA mk1/2 and we would buy another lot of Rafales to provide "oxygen" to IAF. This evokes memory of acquisition under previous UPA government.

This kind of acquisition (just like T90) will lead to death of indigenous products.



Actually no .. see the defense acquisitions are not primarily for economic reasons but for a credible military capability

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pragnya » 15 Apr 2015 15:24

Singha wrote:I think the long delays in weapons and radar mode qualifications is because none have ever done this in india and no vendor makes these weapons in india.
we do not have the data banks nor the trained pool of seniors who have done multiple cycles...everyone is learning on the job.

guns - we must have done it for Marut, but those people are long retired. what effect the vibrations will have on durability of the hull is a new area. and the gun is russian.
BVR missiles - I assume its derby and its integration to EL2032 to start with - again israeli help needed. astra is chugging along but far from ready
LGB - again litening and israeli kits their help needed if any errors are seen
wake penetration test - no reports on this
night sorties - no reports on this

air to air refueling - no reports on this - will the Mk1 have a probe fitted or deferred for 1.5 ?

in general the last 10% of any proj even in ITvity is the hardest to close down and takes >>10% effort . so I can understand the delays but solns need to be found, boots need to be applied to OEMs doing foot dragging and we need to make the FOC by Dec 2015 at ANY COST


i guess you are referring to the LCA. as to the bolded it was done many months back. check 'achievements' in the ADA brochure - http://tejas.gov.in/IOC-Brochure.pdf

one more for the wake penetration - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... -test.html

as to the rest are for the FOC.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_26622 » 15 Apr 2015 15:51

Rafale saga continues - Disappointing news but at least we did not commit suicide by spending 20 billion $. That said been paralysed for life is not a great outcome either. Everytime we crash a Rafale jet - it will be like blowing away 200 million $, and jets crash no matter how much precautions are taken. Unless we keep them in locked away in lockers I guess. Injecting oxygen into IAF is right way to put it. They just forgot to mention 'strangulating India of much needed oxygen'. Didn't we open doors to IKEA for getting 1 billion FDI recently. Which floating $ island are we on now to buy such expensive goodies for IAF?

Big question is - What is the grand strategy here? Keeping it simple at this scale.

Learnings till date - Sucked up 200+ Russian MKI goodies worth 20 billion $ and then got scared of cheap Chinese copies or 40 odd Su-35 buy. Russians will continue to bend backwards to anyone flashing a few bucks until Putin retires. Top it off with PAKFA dance which will be in Chinese hands sooner than later - Repeat of MKI treachery.

Think 5 years ahead, not 10 or 15 or 20 years - How will we counter 5th Gen Chinese stealth jets with 4.5 gen Rafale? PAKFA is like combining a horse from front and donkey from back in terms of stealth. That leaves only F-35 in the ring. So what are we waiting for - F-35 in Paki hands while we are stuck with dying Rafales and half breed PAKFA's. At this rate Pakis will sport F-35 and CHinese stealth jets which will be better than any PAKFA or Russian jet (performance = $ investment ).

All this 'independence' storytelling is like 'walking on water' if we continue importing platforms - better to get practical and get cheapest, most effective version out there. Isn't that how we shop for ourselves so why this indecisiveness.

Summary - My take is that buying Rafales is like fighting while looking behind. We need a 'cheap' 5th Gen jet to counter Chinese and effectively PAKFA (once it gets in Chinese hands). If we are going to spend 5 or 7 billion $ then just get 5th Gen F-35 and be done with this dancing around the bush craziness. Invest the savings in 'TIME and $$$' for AMCA and LCA MKII/III versions like Japanese are doing. Leapfrog the learning curve instead of going at it in this crab like walk.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 15 Apr 2015 16:07

Some notes

1. IAF/Indian gov does not want sanction prone fighter not that it has been offered.
2. Indian gov does not want to sign all the four lettered agreements needed for getting fully functional F-35.
3. If PAKFA does not cut it how will FGFA cut it. After all a donkey (not my favored descriptor) will father a horse and that too a thoroughbred?

So that leaves us with Chinese 5th gen option wonlee if they are willing to sell. But if the Chinese cannot match Russian 4th gen how in the world are they going to leapfrog the Russians on the 5th gen.

Looking ahead some 15 years, AMCA in its first iteration cannot match up to the PAKFA/F-35/Chinese 5th gen. Looks like we are stuck and will have to order a massive amount of Rafale (200+/$45+ billion) and make do. And even after spending so much we are screwed wonlee.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby P Chitkara » 15 Apr 2015 16:34

pankajs wrote:Looking ahead some 15 years, AMCA in its first iteration cannot match up to the PAKFA/F-35/Chinese 5th gen.


How so? How come will the AMCA be inferior to Chinese 5th gen and why has the Chinese bird been put in the same bucket as the F-35?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 15 Apr 2015 16:38

Do note the quote rests on the very important assumption that PAKFA is a donkey or a half breed.
-------------->
AMCA would be in 1st iteration in 2030 while the Chinese efforts would be in their 2nd iteration by that time. Nothing prevents AMCA being better than the Chinese effort but given the time gap Chinese effort will likely be better.

The Chinese bird is being talked about in the same sentence as F-35 because both are supposed to represent threat at our borders. I am not sure F-35 will make its appearance at the Bak border but lets assume that to be true for the sake of argument.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby deejay » 15 Apr 2015 16:57

Philip wrote:...

More media reports:
TOI:
More shocks to come,Tejas to be dumped for "another single-engine aircraft"?
In this TOI report,commenting upon tejas being the replacement for the MIG-21s and the waiting period for it has come down to months,there is a subtle hint that if Tejas does not "make the cut",there are alternatives.



Philip Sir, sorry for the delayed rejoinder. TOI report is definitely a hit job and this hit is in favour of the Grippen. Turn to the previous page. There is a graphic of fighters and their prominent capabilities. Do not look at the data first. On BRF they won't last a second. Just look at the aircraft shown. Grippen is the only aircraft which is 'Shaded' or highlighted. Turnover to the next page and the article linked is there. Now go back and and give a cold hard stare at the Grippen range mentioned. One wonders if Grippen flies on fumes!!! :eek: :mrgreen:

(P.S.: Have a good laugh, do not fume)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 15 Apr 2015 17:01


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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby shiv » 15 Apr 2015 17:28

nik wrote:. We need a 'cheap' 5th Gen jet to counter Chinese and effectively PAKFA (once it gets in Chinese hands)

I did not understand the reasoning behind this but I wil cross post this question in the appropriate thread because there are some things that I would like to discuss.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Will » 15 Apr 2015 17:50

Day by day looks like the route was taken to get in Reliance via the back door.Talk of penalties for canceling the tender is a load of crock.The GOI has canceled tenders left right and center and will continue to do so.Even the current tender is being canceled isnt it?

Oh no doubt IAF needs the aircraft as of yesterday.The Rafale has always been my favourite but if the tender was going to be scrapped and the govt to govt route is to be taken, Eurofighter should have been given a chance also. This would have brought down costs further and made both parties more willing to transfer tech which was a major factor behind this long drawn process. In one stroke Dassault becomes a winner and laughs all the way to the bank with Indian tax payer money while parting with nothing substantial in the bargain. If Reliance is chosen as a partner all India is going to get is assembly from knocked down kits. Now its out that the LCA is in danger from other single engined aircraft which could be assembled locally. :(


All this Make in India is just hype. What does India get from it other then being a sweat shop for first world countries. What we should be concentrating on is the "Make India" part of the DPP where stuff is designed and developed in India and the IP remains with India.
The previous govt dragged its feet and left the defense forces in a mess . The new govt seems bent on selling us out where by its India that ends up paying for selling itself to. Heavens help us.This deal is nothing short of a disaster for domestic industry.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 15 Apr 2015 18:04

We are screwed if we buy Rafale and we are screwed if we don't.

Now that everyone realizes the truth about IAF's current situation lets make the best of the situation and save some billions. Lets plant a big white flag on top of lal quila and invite the Bakis or the Ch1nkis to take over and live happily ever after.
Last edited by pankajs on 15 Apr 2015 18:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 15 Apr 2015 18:05

The Chinese bird is being talked about in the same sentence as F-35 because both are supposed to represent threat at our borders. I am not sure F-35 will make its appearance at the Bak border but lets assume that to be true for the sake of argument.


There is as much chance that PAF gets the F-35 as there is with them getting the PAKFA. Even the ME states are not going to be getting it for the foreseeable future and no one knows what direction Pakistan takes 10 years from now. If it continues down its path the PAF would be a pretty much an extension of the PLAAF and under that situation the F-35 would not be sold to it.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pragnya » 15 Apr 2015 18:57

MP is going about things in a very diligent way. he has said many things in the very recent past and has been acting on it. if i recall some of them -

1. there is very limited budget but judicious usage by way of priortising can mitigate the issues.

explains why Rafale numbers is cut down while IAF still gets some real power. this gives the govt time to work on the other priorities, spend on them while not compromising on operational preparedness. it is clear there will more rafales - i guess, another lot of 36 - but only after the first 36 delivery.

result - issue relatively resolved in short to medium term. money saved (vis vi RFP tender). IAF happy.

2. operational peparedness can be improved by making available existing aircrafts which were otherwise unavailable for various reasons.

case in point Su 30 MKI. things are improving. more squadrons up for use.

http://week.manoramaonline.com/cgi-bin/ ... Id=-225861

Parrikar claims that the IAF has improved aircraft availability by 10 per cent in the past six months. “If you improve the availability, 75 per cent of your problem is solved,” he said.
“Sukhoi availability is also improving. Low availability is due to servicing issues and spares.” Agreed former HAL chairman R.K. Tyagi: “The availability of aircraft in the squadrons was 50 per cent earlier.
But, with steps like creation of spares bank for the aircraft, we have brought it up to 60 per cent in the last few months.”


Mig 29s have been taken care of earlier. IIRC i have not seen any reprts of late of any hitches wrt spares, maintainence so i guess it is operating ok.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... -29s-india

The first deal is worth $43 million and creates a service center in the New Delhi region to repair and maintain the Phazotron-NIIR Zhuk-M series of airborne radars that equip the Indian air force MiG-29UPG and Indian navy MiG-29K/KUB fleet. The second deal is worth $12 million and will establish a service center for parts used on those aircraft.


result - no. of operational squadrons increase setting to rest the 'scare' of numbers going down. capability improvements via upg which are ongoing only add to the strength.

3. he wants to avoid over dependence. wants to prune the import list.

he is well aware, OEMs do not part with tech important for us. it has to be done on our own - however hard, whatever time it takes. so we may see caps on AD systems, radars, ship builds, ew, tactical missiles where we already have expertise.

result - save money.

4. MII campaign is this govt's flagship program.

that brings to LCA. though it has been long but has been a worthy effort considering everything had to be started from scratch. besides building an ecosystem, creating institutions, spinoffs which have benefitted across the board, giving us much needed 'test Data' - we never had, creating vendor base mostly private, prowess in fbw/avionics/ew etc..

these are not something any right thinking govt can throw away. it is hard won. i dont think neither MP or NM are so foolish not to see this. besides it is 'Made In India' - even better than Make In India.

his comment of another single engined plane etc.. IMO is a bluff but also a pressure tactic to the stake holders incl IAF (we might see some more orders for Mark 1) to get going on production/induction. considering the cost estimates and #1 any import in the light category can be ruled out outright IMO.

result - ecosystem, talent retained. build on it with other MII stuff.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Raveen » 15 Apr 2015 20:23

Will wrote:Day by day looks like the route was taken to get in Reliance via the back door.Talk of penalties for canceling the tender is a load of crock.The GOI has canceled tenders left right and center and will continue to do so.Even the current tender is being canceled isnt it?

Oh no doubt IAF needs the aircraft as of yesterday.The Rafale has always been my favourite but if the tender was going to be scrapped and the govt to govt route is to be taken, Eurofighter should have been given a chance also. This would have brought down costs further and made both parties more willing to transfer tech which was a major factor behind this long drawn process. In one stroke Dassault becomes a winner and laughs all the way to the bank with Indian tax payer money while parting with nothing substantial in the bargain. If Reliance is chosen as a partner all India is going to get is assembly from knocked down kits. Now its out that the LCA is in danger from other single engined aircraft which could be assembled locally. :(


All this Make in India is just hype. What does India get from it other then being a sweat shop for first world countries. What we should be concentrating on is the "Make India" part of the DPP where stuff is designed and developed in India and the IP remains with India.
The previous govt dragged its feet and left the defense forces in a mess . The new govt seems bent on selling us out where by its India that ends up paying for selling itself to. Heavens help us.This deal is nothing short of a disaster for domestic industry.


This post is so full of biased fail that I don't even know where to start.

What you get by being the west's sweatshop is FDI, the ability to reverse engineer, taxes, lower unemployment...I mean just really, its so obvious that I am going to accuse you of being disingenuous

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Samay » 15 Apr 2015 22:09

Importing finished products will never be ' Make in India' , lets not confuse ourselves with terms like reverse engineering, Indian clever politics, fresh oxygen, toilet papers etc, it all ends up in inherent weakness.
There should be a firm policy that we wont import finished products in defense sector . Importing technology can do. Its a pipe dream if this ever happens , until then lets close this thread and eat French fries.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Raveen » 15 Apr 2015 22:25

kit wrote:a rafale production line in india by Reliance industries .. Make in india ! But no doubt ..not made in india ..how does this pan out !! :evil:


It was always going to be Make in India screwdrivergiri - it was never going to be Made in India

Su30 TOT - did we even learn how to make all the spares? what TOT?
HAL is incapable of anything beyond scredrivergiri - if a pvt company can do that faster, cheaper, better, we lost nothing. The only hope is that a pvt player would have a vested interest in building up the capability to reverse engineer some of that stuff.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby sohamn » 15 Apr 2015 22:44

^^^^^ I echo you. any future fighter production should be done by private industries, as only private industries will have the incentive to absorb / reverse engineer the technology.


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