Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[RoyG]

I dont know if Kautilya makes Tzu look amateurish.. but indian statecraft certainly looks amateruish as compared to chinese. we have just managed to stay afloat ( i dont think it speaks a lot abt us ..lurching from one crisis to another) when the other side is running away. Not sustainable in long run ! blow back.. i am also waiting for that blow back to happen... and while we wait Chinese are turning the screws on everyone. there is no overt war but a very sustained covert war suitably garnished with peaceful nothings from the chinese. scary times ahead...

The difference between Kautilya and ancient chinese statecraft is that ours is far more comprehensive and focuses on strategy instead of strategems. We've gone through hundreds of invasions and have a concept of the "other" which will certainly help us in the long term. I think we've done a good job given the circumstances.

China is no doubt learning, but they are learning within the confines of enemies cropping up in their periphery. How can you grow and be respected by being in constant conflict in today's world? It's impossible.

[Tuvaluan]

For example, everyone speak of china's awesome maritime strategy with a string of pearls and whatnot, and get all breathless about Sun Tzu and his shiny little quotes. So riddle me this, how is China's antagonism with Vietname and Indonesia going to help it make it through the indonesian archipelago and the approach to China's ports in the long term, esp. if Indonesia gets outside help to restrict access to the sea lanes passing through its archipelago? Why is it not a stupid idea for the chinese to get into battles with Vietnam and Indonesia and phillipines and usurping their ideas and building structures on them just to provoke them?

[Tuvaluan]

India's current strategy to get tight with Indonesia and vietnam especially in the naval arena and to get into joint defense pacts with them as a pressure point against the Chinese is a good plan.

The other part of the plan is to ensure that the Chinese Maritime Silk Road cr@p never sees the light of day and to do everything in our power to tear it down or at least make the chinese bleed money. Maintaining an expensive navy is all well and good when the economy is good, and it also causes bleeding when the state cannot afford, so the chinese must be allowed to make all the mistakes that will take them down faster at some future point.

[Tuvaluan]

This is how the great sun-tzuvian chinese strategery works in practise. Please point out this is all so very uber-clever and long-term strategeric thinking by the Commies running China.

http://www.economist.com/node/18586448

[manjgu]

clashes are surely reported but no loss of life/firing.. thats why i am saying its a covert war. while vietnam and indonesia may join up with india but do u seriously think they will help us against china when the shooting starts? Statecraft... just to give u an example..i did not see a single protest from India to the China Pak corridor? statecraft has to ensure protection of national interest and its furtherance. We have not been able to tackle even the pakis since last 30 years... I am not sure how successful the Pak china corridor will be , but its an attempt to ensure that its maritime interests are not compromised in case of war... this is long term vision and statecraft...the way chinese are ensuring enengy security is another aspect of their state craft... the way they have laid claims on territory is another aspect of their statecraft...

[Tuvaluan]

clashes are surely reported but no loss of life/firing.. thats why i am saying its a covert war.

Just being technical, but people die in covert wars too.

thats why i am saying its a covert war. while vietnam and indonesia may join up with india but do u seriously think they will help us against china when the shooting starts? Statecraft..

This is not high school, India, Vietnam and Indonesia are not BFFs -- but their interests align when it comes to China, that is the whole point here. This is not smart state craft by any stretch to give reasons for an alliance to form against you in the long term, and that too by picking unnecessary fights against these states and taking over their territory. I am just stating the obvious here, no sun tzu required.

but its an attempt to ensure that its maritime interests are not compromised in case of war..his is long term vision and statecraft...the way chinese are ensuring enengy security is another aspect of their state craft..

Sounds mostly bogus, mostly because Energy security comes from possessing your own fuel for your own power plants. Energy security does not from long supply chains that can be disrupted during times of water, and it certainly does not come from creating enemies out of states that will be willing to assist you with your energy security by picking fights with them...that sounds like the state craft run by a bunch of imbeciles.

[manjgu]

people do die in covert wars..no doubt abt that. but these have never been reported in context of china and its clashes with other countries, so there is semblance of apparent normality..even our govt says ..its peace on the borders whereas we know its not the case.

What i meant is India, vietnam, indonesia can never be kind of allies such as USA , UK , Canada are..they go to war on each others behalf. China is not picking un necessary fights. fights are happening as it lays claims to potentially oil rich sea and resources. Countries with big ambitions are not scared to take harsh decisions, to piss of other countries. This is another aspect of statecraft, india has to learn..to take unpleasant decisions.

If china does not have own fuel for energy security.what is next best alternate course of action?? wars are not going to last for months or years... even if any country is able to disrupt their supplies it will not be for long...

[Tuvaluan]

If china does not have own fuel for energy security.what is next best alternate course of action?? wars are not going to last for months or years... even if any country is able to disrupt their supplies it will not be for long...

So wars won't last long because of china's dependence on outside sources of energy? i.e., china is liable to lose any war if its supply chain of energy is its weakest link. can't disagree with that.

[manjgu]

i think u misunderstood... countries have strategic reserves..i think china has 1 month reserves.. a short term war is NOT likely to impact china adversely.. No country in China's neighbourhood has the stamina for a long war...India included which is probably the strongest country militarily. so this interdiction of their supply lines is a far fetched idea and over hyped..and yet they are making plans for that contingency as well. this is long term vision and statecraft.

[Tuvaluan]

so this interdiction of their supply lines is a far fetched idea and over hyped..and yet they are making plans for that contingency as well. this is long term vision and statecraft.

I understood what you meant, but you can't just proclaim that a weak supply chain is not that big of a problem by claiming wars are short - that is a stretch since no one knows what the future beholds. Chinese govt. is doing what most govts do and maintain a reserve to withstand shocks to the chain. This is not long term vision. Long term vision is to engage in actions that will lower the overall cost of defending your interests, and you don't have to be sun tzu to claim that creating new enemies where none existed before lowers the cost of defending your interests in the long term. Nobody wants war, sure, but creating a ring of hostile countries around you is far from being visionary and statecraft-ey. I am not denying that India has been far from demonstrating the level of competence as the chinese in getting things done, but claiming they are master visionaries is bit of a stretch given their actions.

[manjgu]

the so called cost of creating enemies is far lower than the potential benefits which they feel will accrue in terms of energy finds ... the interesting thing is that even with the so called enemies or enemies in making, they are engaging in trade and commerce and making money and shoring up their economy. What is a stretch is a matter of personal opinion and judgement, what u think is a stretch is not considered so by the chinese. the long term vision is to dominate all energy sources ....physically claim them if they are close to china geographically or buy stakes in oil producing countries if they are afar. there is a very well thought out strategy/planning behind these moves. one can only ignore them at our own peril.

[Tuvaluan]

What is a stretch is a matter of personal opinion and judgement, what u think is a stretch is not considered so by the chinese. the long term vision is to dominate all energy sources ....physically claim them if they are close to china geographically or buy stakes in oil producing countries if they are afar.

If I may point out, this is not something unique. the Indian govt. does this too.

there is a very well thought out strategy/planning behind these moves. one can only ignore them at our own peril.

I am not expecting the chinese or any govt. (unless they demonstrate an inability) to have no thought or planning -- but it is also clear that the Chinese are not the only ones doing this sort of thing. What is the peril here? The Chinese govt. is certainly a lot bolder in its policy moves and they can be so because they have money to burn -- that India does not possess the capacity for such moves is the fault of Indians and even Indian "democracy" I daresay. But to the extent allowed by its capability the Indian govt. has done much of the same moves as the chinese, if you recall India's stakes in U mines recently and its moves towards nuclear power, which provides energy independence at far less risk. India's energy independence in the oil and gas is far easier to achieve than china given its proximity to the Indian ocean, so it has no reason to jump through hoops to create all these pathways and pipelines like the chinese do.

[Tuvaluan]

On second thought, I think I should be whole-heartedly supporting China's moves in Pakistan and appreciate their visionary thinking. In fact, I think they should start a few more fights with Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia while they are at it. I love chinese strategic vision.

Meanwhile, standard load of BS wrapped in "peaceful" rhetorical package from the chinese before PM's visit to China.

http://www.outlookindia.com/news/articl ... der/894544

"Chinese border troops have always strictly abided by the agreements reached by the two governments and are committed to peace and stability along the border area," defence ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said at a media briefing here today.

totally peaceful China only.

[Agnimitra]

Dear Chinese lurkers,

Islamic (and especially Pakistani) narratives of their end-times prophecies predict that the eastern army of Islamic Caliphate will, in a single war, conquer and subjugate, both, India and China. Lakhs of faithfools in the Subcontinent have been indoctrinated with this story, by the most prominent and internationally acclaimed of their ulema:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR9QI8PuITU

[SSridhar]

China slams new security pact between Japan, U.S. - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China has slammed new guidelines defining the security partnership between Japan and the United States, calling them an attempt to undermine Beijing, as well as the geopolitical architecture of the Asia-Pacific.

“The new guidelines have struck a threatening pose toward China, which is the strongest driver for East Asia’s development. They should know that their aggression has sent a dangerous signal to regional stability,’’ said an editorial in the Global Times — a daily affiliated with the Communist Party of China.

Officials from the United States have been quoted as saying that the latest guidelines — updated for the first time since1997 — end the geographic limits on the Japanese military to operate.

Following permission from Parliament, Japanese forces can participate in military operations across the globe. “The current guidelines are unrestricted with respect to geography,” U.S. Defence Secretary Ash Carter has been quoted as saying. “That is a very big change — from being locally focused to globally focused,” he observed. Analysts point out that the changes to the U.S.-Japan pact injects more substance to President Barack Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” doctrine, which the Chinese say lays the military groundwork for containing Beijing’s peaceful rise.

A string of articles in the Chinese official media, have been vocal in rejecting the new parameters. The Chinese have been incensed by the joint decision taken by Washington and Tokyo to include the disputed Diyaoyu islands, which the Japanese call Senkaku, in the ambit of the new agreement. “Since the Cold War’s end, the U.S.-Japan alliance has never been so military-oriented as now. They no longer make efforts to hide their intention of containing China’s rise. This antagonistic trajectory has dealt another blow to the already vulnerable China-U.S. and China-Japan relations,” the Global Times said in the editorial.

‘Stepping back’

“The current Asia-Pacific geopolitical structure is on the verge of destruction,” it observed. The write-up also warned that Japan was stepping back in historical issues and leaning to the right in internal politics. “Relaxing the restraints on the Japanese military forces will trigger enormous controversies in Japan’s neighbourhood.”

A write-up published in the People’s Daily — China’s official newspaper — also attributes the shift in position by Tokyo and Washington to China’s rising influence, which became evident when many prominent members of the Atlantic Alliance broke ranks and joined the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank.

[SSridhar]

Xi heading for Moscow amid tensions in Asia-Pacific - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Chinese President Xi Jinping is heading for Moscow next week amid growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific, which is pushing China and Russia into a tighter embrace to counter apprehensions about military ties between Japan and the United States.

President Xi, who will be his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin’s high profile guest, will participate in the May 9 military parade in Moscow to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Prevent conflict

Russia and China say they want the parade to reinforce the message that conflict on a global scale must be prevented at all costs in the future. For the first time, a contingent of Chinese troops will also take part in the parade — a symbolic gesture of the growing Beijing-Moscow special relationship.

Mr. Xi’s presence at Red Square would demonstrate “the sophisticated and special relations between China and Russia,” says Li Hui, China’s ambassador to Russia, in an interview with Xinhua.

Analysts point out that this week’s military pact between Japan and the United States, seen by China as an unprecedented event to contain its rise, during Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Washington, is expected to echo during the course of the Moscow meeting.

Joint patrols

Beijing’s concerns have been further reinforced by signals emerging from Tokyo that Japan and the U.S. could undertake joint patrols in the South China Sea, where tensions are already running high because of China’s maritime disputes with several littoral countries including the Philippines and Vietnam.

There is also a running dispute between China and Japan in East China Sea over Diaoyu islands, which the Japanese call Senkaku.

Ahead of President Xi’s visit, Russia has decided to arm China with the highly sophisticated S-400 air defence missiles which have a range long enough to protect the disputed island from air strikes.

“Our air force has deployed the Russian S-300 systems, which are good at dealing with aircraft, but their performance in intercepting cruise missiles and tactical ballistic missiles is not very satisfactory,” People’s Daily quoted Du Wenlong, a senior researcher at the PLA Academy of Military Science.

“After we commission the S-400, it can work with the HQ-9 and S-300 to form a fully covered air defence network,” he observed.

[SSridhar]

McCain: SDF should expect to see action in Korea, deploy to Mideast, South China Sea - Japan Times

Sen. John McCain, chairman of the U.S. Armed Services Committee, said in an interview that the Self-Defense Forces might take part in combat in the event of a contingency on the Korean Peninsula.

The senior politician, who has a heavy influence on defense and foreign policy, also expressed hope that the SDF will be operating in the Middle East and the South China Sea under Japan’s new security policy.

McCain made the comments Tuesday as Japan seeks to revise the bilateral defense cooperation guidelines in a way that allows the SDF to expand its overseas activities with the U.S. military. This revision reflects Japan’s controversial security shift under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to allow the use of collective self-defense, or coming to the aid of an ally under armed attack even when Japan itself is not under direct attack. Until last year, collective defense was considered banned under the war-renouncing Constitution.

The senator from Arizona signaled his hope that Japan and other countries will cooperate in making sure that an “international transit point is kept free for navigational purposes” in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea lane used to transport the crude oil on which Japan and other nations depend.

On the territorial disputes in the South China Sea involving China and nations in Southeast Asia, McCain said, “Hopefully, those differences can be resolved peacefully.”

“But I think that it is important to have a security component, and part of that is United States-Japan partnership in exercises and other areas of cooperation,” the Vietnam War veteran said.

McCain, 78, dismissed the view that Japan’s participation in such operations may cause a confrontation between Japan and China.

“I think that, as long as they’re in international waters, that Japan should be able to send their ships wherever they want to,” McCain said.

The lawmaker also said that if North Korea were to attack South Korea, it is desirable for Japan to provide supplies and additional assets.

“Frankly it is not Japanese troops that are south of the 38th parallel. It’s American troops if there was a major confrontation,” McCain said, referring to the heavily fortified North-South demarcation line.

Although Japanese troops did not engage in fighting in the Korean War, McCain said: “I would probably suspect that that wouldn’t be the case in the future.”

The senator also urged Japan and South Korea to improve their strained ties by settling disputes over history, including the issue of “comfort women,” Japan’s euphemism for the thousands of females forced to provide sex to Imperial troops in Japan’s wartime military brothels. Many of those women were from the Korean Peninsula, which was under Japanese colonial rule from 1910 to 1945.

[schinnas]

i think u misunderstood... countries have strategic reserves..i think china has 1 month reserves.. a short term war is NOT likely to impact china adversely.. No country in China's neighbourhood has the stamina for a long war...India included which is probably the strongest country militarily. so this interdiction of their supply lines is a far fetched idea and over hyped..and yet they are making plans for that contingency as well. this is long term vision and statecraft.

Strategic reserves would work mostly during time of naval blockade. They may be of limited utility during times of active war. Bunker busters and similar heavy ammo can take out oil reserve stations even if they are underground unless they are located deep inside the ground or inside deep caves.

India aims to get to 3 or 4 weeks of reserves by 2020. Cheen meanwhile aims to get to 90 days worth of reserves. It is an expensive and involved effort to create strategic oil reserves. Given our closer proximity to oil producing countries and the ability of Indian navy, we would not need more than 45 days of reserves. 60 days to be safe. 90 days would be a paranoid overkill for us.

[member_23692]

India no match for China, says current Indian Navy Chief

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 41985.aspx

What incentive does China have to negotiate a border deal and stop gobbling up Indian territory "inch by inch", as it continues to do every day, with India under these circumstances, with India having no chance to stop the gap from increasing, leave aside narrowing the gap ?

[prahaar]

India no match for China, says current Indian Navy Chief

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 41985.aspx

What incentive does China have to negotiate a border deal and stop gobbling up Indian territory "inch by inch", as it continues to do every day, with India under these circumstances, with India having no chance to stop the gap from increasing, leave aside narrowing the gap ?

This is a 2009 article. Those in the know can answer better if anything has changed in the last 6 years.

[pankajs]

Assume there is no match between the capabilities of China and India and consequently China has no incentive at all to negotiate with India. If the obvious question do not provide satisfactory answers reverse change the question?

So the alternative question *could* be why has China not gobbled up Arunanchal pradesh which it claims fully for itself? Why has China chosen to gobble up Indian territory "inch by inch" in Ladakh instead of going in for one big bite? If Indians cannot match/hope to match China what seems to be holding up the Chinese?

Those perhaps can be more illuminating question with regards to China's posture. Perhaps even those will not give us a clearer picture so think of framing the questions better.

[member_23692]

So the alternative question *could* be why has China not gobbled up Arunanchal pradesh which it claims fully for itself? Why has China chosen to gobble up Indian territory "inch by inch" in Ladakh instead of going in for one big bite? If Indians cannot match/hope to match China what seems to be holding up the Chinese?

Perhaps, because overt and very open large scale incursion is going to attract too much attention and even the large powers who turn a blind eye to this surreptitious "inch by inch" takeover, will not be able to turn a blind eye to larger scale incursion.

Perhaps, because if the goals can be achieved by taking something "inch by inch" and via buildings roads, ports and railroads through Indian territory or vicinity to encircle India, why would one go for large scale incursion ? In other words, just because the Chinese use one tactic over another to achieve the same goals and not use ALL those tactics, does not make it any less lethal.

Perhaps, because the Chinese have already succeeded in humiliating India in the extreme by gobbling up and silencing all international criticism of their gobbling up Tibet, gobbling up Aksai Chin, gobbling up 1/3rd of JK which Paki gave them, arming Paki with nuclear weapons, creating a huge trade imbalance with India, preventing India from still officially joining the nuclear club, preventing India from getting a permanent seat in the security council and in countless other ways.

If you are able to take something piece by piece with practically no opposition, no losses to yourself, no international heat, why would you risk a larger conflagration ? The relative or incremental benefit of a larger conflagration are minimal while the risks are greater, not necessarily of a military reverse, but of the world coming down hard on you and upsetting all the equations that you (the Chinese) have put in place to propel to be a dominant world power.

[pankajs]

[>>quote="pankajs"]
So the alternative question *could* be why has China not gobbled up Arunanchal pradesh which it claims fully for itself? Why has China chosen to gobble up Indian territory "inch by inch" in Ladakh instead of going in for one big bite? If Indians cannot match/hope to match China what seems to be holding up the Chinese?
[<</quote]

Perhaps, because overt and very open large scale incursion is going to attract too much attention and even the large powers who turn a blind eye to this surreptitious "inch by inch" takeover, will not be able to turn a blind eye to larger scale incursion.
<snip>
If you are able to take something piece by piece with practically no opposition, no losses to yourself, no international heat, why would you risk a larger conflagration ? The relative or incremental benefit of a larger conflagration are minimal while the risks are greater, not necessarily of a military reverse, but of the world coming down hard on you and upsetting all the equations that you (the Chinese) have put in place to propel to be a dominant world power.

This is very very interesting.

My understanding is that no power in the world is going pick up a fight with China on our behalf. Did the world not turn a blind eye when China annexed Tibet? That too when China was weaker and the others (primarily west) stronger?

There is going to be no large power intervention on behalf of India and any conflagration is going to be limited to India and China. The risk of a larger conflagration are minimal and chance of humiliating India in such a conclusive way with a large land grab is very good. What is holding China back? Again what is China afraid of?

[Tuvaluan]

Nothing is actually holding china back -- they have made steady gains in territory in PoK, Leh, Tibet and all across the international border by building roads right into Indian territory. The Indian govt. which won't even release records of all the shenanigans by past congress leaders is not about to reveal how much territory it has lost to the chinese over the years. It is more likely that we (the public) are not aware of the extent of land loss to the chinese on the India-China borders.

[pankajs]

The recent incidents have been highlighted by the media so am sure a large track lost in say the *last 20 years* will have come to the light by now.

What is not in public domain cannot be judged one way or the other. We can of-course continue speculating.

The larger question is why China has not grabbed the whole *South Tibet* or at least their favorite *Tawang monastery* till date for all its overwhelming superiority.

[Bade]

AP is too large for even PRC to digest. No easy access for them to the place and even when they did come in they realized it will be a hard place to hold for long, hence they withdrew. Aksai Chin is much easier for them to keep and access. Even there they stopped further encroachment after satisfying their strategic needs like connectivity to PoK, till the Indians showed up in full force in recent time near the borders. Their claims near Uttaranchal border is a bit perplexing as it does not serve them any strategic value...other than ingress to Nepal's western parts.

They have Tibet already, their south Tibet claim is just a pressure point on India and will always remain unresolved as long as Tibet remains with PRC.

[svinayak]

AP is too large for even PRC to digest. No easy access for them to the place and even when they did come in they realized it will be a hard place to hold for long, hence they withdrew. Aksai Chin is much easier for them to keep and access. Even there they stopped further encroachment after satisfying their strategic needs like connectivity to PoK, till the Indians showed up in full force in recent time near the borders. Their claims near Uttaranchal border is a bit perplexing as it does not serve them any strategic value...other than ingress to Nepal's western parts.

They have Tibet already, their south Tibet claim is just a pressure point on India and will always remain unresolved as long as Tibet remains with PRC.

It is about legitimacy of the PRC claim over Tibet which is in question.

There are regions of Old Tibet still within India and Chinese do not know the full region of the Tibet country.

This searching for more land to expand Chinese border on Tibet is explained by this history.

[Tuvaluan]

PoK, Leh, Tibet

Wrongly typed Tibet, I meant Nepal -- If China rearms and re-empowers the maoists again, and there is no consensus on the constitution as seems likely, we would have regressed 10 or more years in Nepal.

[Tuvaluan]

What is not in public domain cannot be judged one way or the other. We can of-course continue speculating.

My point is that such information is being kept out of public domain out of political expedience and backside-coverage motives -- The so-called "Chief Information Commissioner" Wajahat Habibullah now provides a "dog ate Netaji report" surely because he is another one of the Nehru-drone oiseaules that infest the Indian bureaucracy. I mean, there is no reason to keep such foibles of past leaders as some sort of undisclosable national secret except for politicking. If any report exposes the incompetence of the babucracy or the government, some magical paper-eating dog will make sure that the report disappears, after a few pointless commissions are enabled to enact a drama of digging in to find the truth...and won't be the first time.

[manjgu]

for all those dreaming abt enforcing a naval blockade in time of war, pl get a reality check from a navy person. there are many issues... will u block a china bound ship flying a singapore flag? how many ships will u block? for how long ur ships can sail and how many can go to sea for any length of time... to the best of my knowledge..IN can not block fuel supplies to china in a meaningful way to give them real pain... will the warships be busy blocking /escorting shipping or fighting??

[member_23692]

This is very very interesting.

My understanding is that no power in the world is going pick up a fight with China on our behalf. Did the world not turn a blind eye when China annexed Tibet? That too when China was weaker and the others (primarily west) stronger?

There is going to be no large power intervention on behalf of India and any conflagration is going to be limited to India and China. The risk of a larger conflagration are minimal and chance of humiliating India in such a conclusive way with a large land grab is very good. What is holding China back? Again what is China afraid of?

No, I was not saying that any power on earth will overtly go to war with China, over India in the event of a major Chinese attack on India. But China will suffer great "non immediately facing a world war" type consequences. The Japanese are sure to go overtly nuclear in that event. The Americans and the European Union along with their puppy, the Australians, will stop any further trade deals and concessions to China, at least for a few years and may even institute some protectionist measures against Chinese imports, not to favor India but by being alarmed by such brazenness and perceiving threats to their own interests. They will certainly get more cautious and may even institute economic "defense shields" to far more effectively check China's rise, than they would do now. The ASEAN and even the Russians will get more weary of the Chinese and will be much more guarded in trade deals and economic ties. Russian oil and gas agreements with China may also be affected.

Even if none of the above happens or the Chinese calculate that none of the above will happen, again, if you can achieve your goals by slowly gobbling up territory with absolutely no risk at all, why would you risk a larger war ? Would you ? Just makes no sense. It is like saying that while the bully in high school slaps you in front of everybody everyday and pulls out your daily allowance from your pant pockets, after he leaves, you perform a victory dance and tell everyone how powerful you are, because if you were'nt, would the bully not have punched you in the nose too and punched you in the gut too and come inside your house and stolen all your video games too ?

By the way, I totally agree with the poster above who suggested that the Indian government is hiding the extent of territory loss to China. Not only that, I also gather from army people I know, that the government is hiding territory lost to Paki by us over the years, including some territory that we did not regain after the Kargil fiasco. I further believe based on conversations with people who should be in the know that the Indian government is most egregiously lying and hiding the fact that the Indian armed forces' combat readiness and defense readiness at this time is in dismal state, even vis-a-vis Paki, leave aside China. And further more, the Indian government is hiding from the Indian people, what it will take to catch up on getting to at least a minimum level of preparedness for our armed forces. Additionally, the Indian government, even this government, is not as serious as it should in going on a war footing to restore our preparedness quickly to where it should be. Therefore, there are no prospects in the near or medium term or ever being sufficiently prepared, for that matter, if we dont stop the bleeding and reverse the trend, that we will even minimally be prepared to face aggression from China or Pak.

It may be counter intuitive, but really, when your opponents have nuclear weapons, like Paki do and have conventional inferiority, the only way you can even partially negate the nuclear blackmail is by having overwhelming superiority in conventional weapons and then reverse the nuclear blackmail. In case of China, if India wants to do what Pakis do to India by way of nuclear black mail, then the reverse is true. Indian cannot allow China to have overwhelming superiority over India in conventional weapons, which it does today and like I said earlier, with no prospects of this overwhelming superiority ever becoming smaller.

[pankajs]

No, I was not saying that any power on earth will overtly go to war with China, over India in the event of a major Chinese attack on India. But China will suffer great "non immediately facing a world war" type consequences. The Japanese are sure to go overtly nuclear in that event. The Americans and the European Union along with their puppy, the Australians, will stop any further trade deals and concessions to China, at least for a few years and may even institute some protectionist measures against Chinese imports, not to favor India but by being alarmed by such brazenness and perceiving threats to their own interests. They will certainly get more cautious and may even institute economic "defense shields" to far more effectively check China's rise, than they would do now. The ASEAN and even the Russians will get more weary of the Chinese and will be much more guarded in trade deals and economic ties. Russian oil and gas agreements with China may also be affected.

Pls do visit the other China threads once in a while. There is a video of a Chinese general who clearly states that Japan will go nuclear and he does not link it to an event like India-China war. All countries continue to trade with China even while they are wary of it and are trying to diversify. All countries in the periphery and beyond are already alarmed. ASEAN and the Russians are getting more weary everyday. A recent statement by ASEAN was objected by China. In effect the era that you are forecasting for the period AFTER a big Chinese big land grab is already upon China and is only accelerating by the day. Add to than things like the American *pivot* to Asia. Looks like you haven't been following the news for quite sometime.

Again what is stopping China? What is China afraid of?

Even if none of the above happens or the Chinese calculate that none of the above will happen, again, if you can achieve your goals by slowly gobbling up territory with absolutely no risk at all, why would you risk a larger war ? Would you ? Just makes no sense. It is like saying that while the bully in high school slaps you in front of everybody everyday and pulls out your daily allowance from your pant pockets, after he leaves, you perform a victory dance and tell everyone how powerful you are, because if you were'nt, would the bully not have punched you in the nose too and punched you in the gut too and come inside your house and stolen all your video games too ?

What larger war? You agree that no country is going to get into a war with China over India. And per you India is powerless before China. So there you have it game, set and match without at iota of resistance. So why is China going *inch by inch* instead of a big grab? What is stopping China? What is China afraid of?

What victory dance? All I see is your victory dance on behalf of China and you saying how Indian is powerless before China. And yet for all its overwhelming superiority over India you yourself admit a very cautious *inch by inch* China. Has the bully in your cute story been forced to crawl?

By the way, I totally agree with the poster above who suggested that the Indian government is hiding the extent of territory loss to China. Not only that, I also gather from army people I know, that the government is hiding territory lost to Paki by us over the years, including some territory that we did not regain after the Kargil fiasco. I further believe based on conversations with people who should be in the know that the Indian government is most egregiously lying and hiding the fact that the Indian armed forces' combat readiness and defense readiness at this time is in dismal state, even vis-a-vis Paki, leave aside China. And further more, the Indian government is hiding from the Indian people, what it will take to catch up on getting to at least a minimum level of preparedness for our armed forces. Additionally, the Indian government, even this government, is not as serious as it should in going on a war footing to restore our preparedness quickly to where it should be. Therefore, there are no prospects in the near or medium term or ever being sufficiently prepared, for that matter, if we dont stop the bleeding and reverse the trend, that we will even minimally be prepared to face aggression from China or Pak.

I gather from Bak media that India has taken control of some areas over the years that it did not have in 1948. Open sources tell us that India helped split Bakistan in 1971 to create Bangladesh. Then there is General Kidwai who stated that Indian conventional superiority was so overwhelming that Bakis had to go for TNWs to balance Cold Start. However, my secret source inside *BakMil* tell me that Bakistan won all its wars with India including 1971 and Kargil.

For now I will concede that Indian is powerless before China on our borders because it allows me to ask questions related to China soup-er-iority. Note, I am yet to quote my secret *Indian* army sources on either China or Bakistan.

It may be counter intuitive, but really, when your opponents have nuclear weapons, like Paki do and have conventional inferiority, the only way you can even partially negate the nuclear blackmail is by having overwhelming superiority in conventional weapons and then reverse the nuclear blackmail. In case of China, if India wants to do what Pakis do to India by way of nuclear black mail, then the reverse is true. Indian cannot allow China to have overwhelming superiority over India in conventional weapons, which it does today and like I said earlier, with no prospects of this overwhelming superiority ever becoming smaller.

Each one is free to believe what one wants and each one of us is free to quote secret source in Indian Army to back up our claims.

As far as I am concerned, in-spite of overwhelming superiority and its lust for Indian territory China still is being very cautious. And that is odd and raises a lot of questions.

[SSridhar]

for all those dreaming abt enforcing a naval blockade in time of war, pl get a reality check from a navy person. there are many issues... will u block a china bound ship flying a singapore flag? how many ships will u block? for how long ur ships can sail and how many can go to sea for any length of time... to the best of my knowledge..IN can not block fuel supplies to china in a meaningful way to give them real pain... will the warships be busy blocking /escorting shipping or fighting??

Naval blockades have always been employed in times of war. China *is* afraid of that and that is why it is seeking alternate routes prudently. The success or otherwise of a blockade would depend upon so many factors.

[panduranghari]

china is leaving countries with no options but to accept its hegemony... like building an island with air strips,,declaring ADIZ, even building a road in POK, etc etc..."covertly" it is presenting a fait accompli to many countries... unfortunatley save for india no country can really give a meaningful counter to china. and india is also amateurish in its statecraft compared to chinese...

[Tuvaluan]

So why is China going *inch by inch* instead of a big grab? What is stopping China? What is China afraid of?

The simple answer is that it lowers the barrier of resistance from the people whose land is being grabbed -- the chinese have rightly figured that it is a lot cheaper to encroach and occupy the land of neighbouring countries when done a little bit at a time without raising any red flags on the other side. Obviously, they are not keen on occupying any and all land -- that is taken care of by the border redrawing in the chinese BS manufactured maps -- they seem to occupy areas or contest areas that will provide them some long term advantage. The areas they are after will provide a clue as to their motivation for seeking those areas. Might just be a means to expand slowly, like the boundary of the absorbed liquid in a blotting paper.

[vishvak]

Yes, all the psychological analysis is fine, but one must know what it means in other words. That we didn't learn much from 1962 loss at all, for one. Another is, what are schemes of 'international' power centers that will want to divide and conquer in what ways - and their responses/taqiya circus around the schemes. Another is, what will India need to do just to increase preparedness - an example of which is our fine and very disciplined efforts - primarily by the Indian Army / IAF and also by many states across the country (not just at the border) - that shows preparedness to tackle natural calamities.

[Tuvaluan]

Chinese building roads and taking over territory because of lack of Indian ability to build roads and solidify the border to Indian roads is not psychological analysis -- that is the reality. In other words, China is just building the border de facto by drawing it where it likes/wants by creeping into Indian territory while India sleeps and the cretins in parliament play political games with each other even after knowing this reality -- one can assume they have been fully informed of what is going on at the border over the years.

[Prem]

[youtube]1EyAA_YTDwI&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[SSridhar]

panduranghari, thanks for posting the Raja Mohan articulation "India and the US pivot to Asia: Strategic Autonomy or Geopolitical Opportunity", though the video seems a little dated.

Raja Mohan covered the entire gamut well and spoke about the 'Strategic Ambiguity' being practised by India.

[SSridhar]

China's factory activity records biggest drop: HSBC - Reuters

China's factories suffered their fastest drop in activity in a year in April as new orders shrank, a private business survey showed on Monday, hardening the case for fresh policy stimulus to halt a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.9 in April - the lowest level since April 2014 - from 49.6 in March, as demand faltered and deflationary pressures persisted.

The number was weaker than a preliminary reading of 49.2, and below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction compared with the previous month.

The overall new orders sub-index dipped to 48.7 in April, the sharpest contraction in a year, although new export orders showed tentative signs of improvement.

Both input and output prices declined for a ninth month in April, while manufacturing employment contracted for an 18th month, auguring poorly for an economy that grew at its weakest rate for six years in the first quarter.

"China's manufacturing sector had a weak start to Q2, with total new business declining at the quickest rate in a year while production stagnated," said Annabel Fiddes, an economist at Markit.


"The PMI data indicate that more stimulus measures may be required to ensure the economy doesn't slow from the 7 percent annual growth rate seen in Q1."

An official survey released on Friday showed China's factories struggled to grow in April as domestic and export demand remained weak, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will roll out more measures to support the slowing economy.

Aside from weakness in the manufacturing sector, China's economy is struggling with a downturn in its property market and high levels of domestic debt.

The government has pledged to step up fiscal spending this year to support investment and economic growth.

On Thursday, the Politburo, the ruling Communist Party's top decision-making body, said that authorities will step up policy "adjustments" and should cut taxes further. It also said the government must resolve financing glitches that are holding up big infrastructure projects.

The central bank, which has cut interest rates twice since November and reduced banks' reserve requirements to boost their lending power, is widely expected to loosen credit conditions further.

Most economists believe China's economic growth could cool to a quarter-century low of around 7 percent this year from 7.4 percent in 2014.

Manufacturing, Infrastructure & real Estate are the three cornerstones of Chinese economic growth and all of them are hit.