JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

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brar_w
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

That's not possible the F-35 has an RCS of 0.00016 square meters and has a reflectivey smaller than a gnat's ass.
Whenever you have time, please dig up the instance where Lockheed (or Northrop, or Boeing) made any CLAIM on the RCS. You had said it earlier, i'd love to see a source ;)
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Viv S
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Viv S »

Mort Walker wrote:If 2400 units are built. The reality is to maintain such an advanced platform by the services requires intense training, more skilled personnel, and of course hiring LM services for the transition period (several years) where the services can actually maintain it organically. After delivery there are going to be so many Engineering Change Proposals (ECPs) and embedded system software work to keep the F-35 fully functional which will be mind boggling.
The entire SDD (System Development and Demonstration) process exists to test the hardware and create the software. There's been a huge amount of change orders that have already been processed and implemented, though the number is now shrinking fast.

Point is, what you're describing isn't what will happen in the future, its what's happening now. The reason the development process has taken this long is that operational units shouldn't face any such problems. This sort of testing is what the program is doing day in and day out, and will carry on till the SDD phase ends, which should happen around 2018.
I seriously doubt 2400 F-35s will be built or purchased. The final numbers will be half of that at best by 2030.
Thing is, unit cost does not depend on total production order. Its dictated by the production rate. As long as they can ramp the production order upto 150/yr+, they'll meet the $85 mil target. Current production rate is around 57 units per year (up from 43 units last year).
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Mort Walker
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

brar_w wrote:
That's not possible the F-35 has an RCS of 0.00016 square meters and has a reflectivey smaller than a gnat's ass.
Whenever you have time, please dig up the instance where Lockheed made any CLAIM on the RCS. You had said it earlier, i'd love to see a source ;)
It came from you my friend in another thread! You speak the acronym language of the JPO and LM.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

Mort Walker wrote:
It came from you my friend in another thread! You speak the acronym language of the JPO and LM.


No I pointed to an article that did in no way source any OEM (it was something the reporter attributed to his research and not directly to an OEM) or any source connected to OEM's developing stealth aircraft for the DOD. You explicitly mentioned OEM's have claimed this a couple of pages back and I had asked for it even then.


You said -
When the OEM puts out information like 30K hours of operation or an RCS of 0.0001 sq.-meter,
So is it safe to assume that you do not have a direct quote on that claim that Lockheed claims XXX for the RCS?? Because if they ever did mention a number it would be a crime. The only time the RCS number popped up on this program was when the ACC (Air Combat Command - Main authority on fighters in the USAF) Head said that the F-35 is stealthier than the F-22A he operates. When asked to comment on this, the Lockheed Program manager declined to give any specifics and said that the numbers on the RCS track favorably to the capability demanded. They have never been any more specific then that (The OEM) from what I have come across. But perhaps there is something out there, hence I asked.

Also keep in mind when you do an O&M analysis - They aren't adding capability with the F-35. They are replacing outgoing capability. Capability, that they had to literally keep dragging on (which then becomes a maintain pain in the A$$) because the F-35 is delayed. The USAF isn't growing by 1700 aircraft over the next 25 odd years, they are replacing outgoing F-16's and A-10's (and some F-15's).
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Mort Walker
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

Viv S wrote: The entire SDD (System Development and Demonstration) process exists to test the hardware and create the software. There's been a huge amount of change orders that have already been processed and implemented, though the number is now shrinking fast.

Point is, what you're describing isn't what will happen in the future, its what's happening now. The reason the development process has taken this long is that operational units shouldn't face any such problems. This sort of testing is what the program is doing day in and day out, and will carry on till the SDD phase ends, which should happen around 2018.
Wow. Is all I can say. The F-35 has so many sensors on it, advanced flight controls, advanced avionics, advanced fire and control radar, advanced weapon systems - and you think the USAF and USN can absorb that since the program started? They don't have the resources. The USAF is hiring engineers for contract specification review, but not for actual development and maintenance of sensors with real-time software.
Viv S wrote:Thing is, unit cost does not depend on total production order. Its dictated by the production rate. As long as they can ramp the production order upto 150/yr+, they'll meet the $85 mil target.
With all of the technical issues, production will be limited to 50-60 units a year until 2018.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

With all of the technical issues, production will be limited to 50-60 units a year until 2018
IOC is a few months away. SDD is 3 years from completion (even in the worst case - december 2018 its only 3.5 years away). Do note that a plan of production rate has been provided to you in the previous page, and a couple of pages ago I have provided an even more detailed layout of what has been funded. LRIP 8 has been funded and that batch will go into production late next year. LRIP 9 - Long Lead items have been ordered, and LRIP 9 and LRIP 10 block buy contract for 155 aircraft has already been submitted -

http://archive.defensenews.com/article/ ... -Block-Buy

Production till LRIP 10 is SOLID..i.e. payments have already been made for long lead items. Before the end of the year (2015) LRIP 9 and 10 block buy will be firmed up i.e. CONTRACT SIGNED with the 2 OEM's. That takes care of most of the production till the time you mentioned - and the numbers are well documented all around the www.

Backchannel negotiations for LOT 11, 12 and 13 have already begun and the plans that are being drawn up have been reported upon (and the link has been provided to you a couple of times). That is for 477 aircraft spread over 3 years. That takes care of 100% of the F-35 deliveries before FRP 1.

Again, go over the SAR if you want the most specifics.

At the risk of posting stuff that has already been discussed and posted. Here is the LRIP Block Size -

Image

Not that the YEARS at the X axis are BUY years so add 2 years for delivery. So based on contracts that have will be signed later this year (PROPOSAL WAS SUBMITTED A FEW MONTHS AGO - AND NEGOTIATIONS ARE UNDERWAY FOR LRIP 9 and 10) deliveries are already booked till 2018.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by NRao »

If 2400 units are built. The reality is to maintain such an advanced platform by the services requires intense training, more skilled personnel, and of course hiring LM services for the transition period (several years) where the services can actually maintain it organically. After delivery there are going to be so many Engineering Change Proposals (ECPs) and embedded system software work to keep the F-35 fully functional which will be mind boggling.
It is not as bad as one would think it to be. You are right that it is mind boggling. But, they have had some 4 prior projects to learn from and they are far better prepared than one would imagine. Automation has helped out a lot.

They have been using a partner to test/try things out, with great success.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

Is LRIP 11 FFP or CPFF, or even CPIF? What about previous LRIPs?
brar_w
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

Is LRIP 11 FFP or CPFF, or even CPIF? What about previous LRIPs?
I had assumed you had seen the production plan but I edited it in my previous post. LRIP 11 is the last LRIP. LOT 11 (LRIP 11) , LOT 12, (FR1) and LOT 13 (FR 2) MAY be negotiated together. This is what they are talking about as has been reported here -

-

They have to work with the Congress, international customers, and get a sizable discount on the purchase price to get it through but we will know more details this time next year. They don't expect to sign this until the end of 2016 or early 2017.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... uy-410939/
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Viv S »

Mort Walker wrote:Wow. Is all I can say. The F-35 has so many sensors on it, advanced flight controls, advanced avionics, advanced fire and control radar, advanced weapon systems - and you think the USAF and USN can absorb that since the program started? They don't have the resources. The USAF is hiring engineers for contract specification review, but not for actual development and maintenance of sensors with real-time software.
Where do you think the $60bn earmarked for R&D is going. And while the systems here are considerably more sophisticated, they build upon what has previously been achieved. The USAF already has an aircraft in service fielding VLO level stealth, a high degree of sensor fusion, an advanced AESA, an imaging MAWS and a highly sensitive ESM system.

So yes, the USAF and USMC can absord all of that. Also, the R&D plan and budget includes the maintenance of the real-time software (ALIS). With every block, that software also goes through upgrades. What you're missing is that the program has already delivered some six squadrons to the USAF, USMC & USN (these are not development aircraft). They've been incorporating user feedback into upgrades for a long time and the process will continue to 2018.
With all of the technical issues, production will be limited to 50-60 units a year until 2018.
That figure is already on the verge of being crossed with the current years order at 57 units. Long lead orders for the next batch have been phased for around 75 fighters IIRC.
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Mort Walker
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

NRao wrote:
If 2400 units are built. The reality is to maintain such an advanced platform by the services requires intense training, more skilled personnel, and of course hiring LM services for the transition period (several years) where the services can actually maintain it organically. After delivery there are going to be so many Engineering Change Proposals (ECPs) and embedded system software work to keep the F-35 fully functional which will be mind boggling.
It is not as bad as one would think it to be. You are right that it is mind boggling. But, they have had some 4 prior projects to learn from and they are far better prepared than one would imagine. Automation has helped out a lot.

They have been using a partner to test/try things out, with great success.
No, the same people don't work on the different systems. Each weapon system, already incorporated into force structure, needs personnel to keep them operationally ready and they can't be moved to another program. Work centers are geographically separated at different bases. The reality is that USAF and USN will hire LM for engineering services.

Right now USAF is gearing up to get ready for the LRS-B award. It will be one big mo-fo contract well past 2030.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

What about previous LRIPs?
LRIP 1-5 have completed deliveries. LRIP 6 is being delivered as we speak (it may have completed deliveries by now) and LRIP 7 deliveries will begin soon (if they haven't already) and will continue till Q2 or Q3 of next year at which time LRIP 8 will be on the line. Do keep in mind that by 2019 F-35's will be produced at Fort Worth, Cameri Italy (Already rolled out its first aircraft) and in Japan.
Right now USAF is gearing up to get ready for the LRS-B award. It will be one big mo-fo contract well past 2030.
The R&D budget for the LRS-B is factored in the Five year US budget. You may think that the F-35 is sucking up and is a very large budget drain on the DOD or even the USAF budget. The largest procurement drain is the CLASSIFIED PROCUREMENT category (USAF), followed by Classified Research and then comes the F-35. Google LRS-B to get a complete list of spending earmarked for it over the next 5 years. Defetnsenews did a complete breakdown of it based on the USAF 5 year paper.

Image
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

Viv S wrote: Where do you think the $60bn earmarked for R&D is going. And while the systems here are considerably more sophisticated, they build upon what has previously been achieved. The USAF already has an aircraft in service fielding VLO level stealth, a high degree of sensor fusion, an advanced AESA, an imaging MAWS and a highly sensitive ESM system.

So yes, the USAF and USMC can absord all of that. Also, the R&D plan and budget includes the maintenance of the real-time software (ALIS). With every block, that software also goes through upgrades. What you're missing is that the program has already delivered some six squadrons to the USAF, USMC & USN (these are not development aircraft). They've been incorporating user feedback into upgrades for a long time and the process will continue to 2018.
The $60 billion is from an acquisition budget. The O&M budget is for organic support. They can only absorb a certain amount, but if Congress and LM lobbyist force the F-35 in significant numbers on the services in the long run, it will cost much more than maintaining existing fighter aircraft platforms even though the older weapon systems may be more labor intensive.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

brar_w wrote:
Is LRIP 11 FFP or CPFF, or even CPIF? What about previous LRIPs?
I had assumed you had seen the production plan but I edited it in my previous post. LRIP 11 is the last LRIP. LOT 11 (LRIP 11) , LOT 12, (FR1) and LOT 13 (FR 2) MAY be negotiated together. This is what they are talking about as has been reported here -

-

They have to work with the Congress, international customers, and get a sizable discount on the purchase price to get it through but we will know more details this time next year. They don't expect to sign this until the end of 2016 or early 2017.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... uy-410939/
You didn't answer my question about whether the LRIPs are FFP, CPFF, CPIF contracts?
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

The $60 billion is from an acquisition budget.
Viv is taking about the R&D budget. Acquisition budget is separate form research budget. Check the budget materials from 2006 to 2016 (FY16 proposal) for more information.
You didn't answer my question about whether the LRIPs are FFP, CPFF, CPIF contracts?
I answered it a couple of pages back. Every contract from LRIP 5 onwards has been Fixed price minus concurrency changes. Much Like the F-16 (and every other DOD program since ), the F-35 is on a concurrency model. Concurrency cost for the first LRIP 7 or so aircraft (not all cost is for the US but some is also for the International customers) is $1.7 Billion. Concurrency agreements have been signed between the OEM and the JPO and as per them the concurrency cost (Changes discovered during testing that require retrofitting the fleet) would be split 50:50 to an extent and above that 100% would have to be paid by the OEM. Overall concurrency cost is less than 0.5% of the program acquisition cost.

EDIT- To be clear, I am referring to the Acquisition contracts. The RDT&E are obviously cost plus as is the norm. However, they have not exceeded the budgeted amount in the 5 year since baseline but they have had to cut things to stay on that track (GE F-136 engine is an example).

Concurrency was a major issue because some of the estimates were off the chart..Then in 2011, 2012 and 2013 they began to dip and as per the last update the concurrency cost to the JPO (Includes cost for international customers as well) stands at $1.7 Billion, or 0.37% of the overall cost of procurement for the US and partner nations.
The head of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program expects the $400 billion fighter jet program to lift itself out of the concurrency “rut” by about 2017 or 2018 as the number of aircraft and engine faults discovered during developmental testing continues to decline.
This week, the Government Accountability Office warned that the costs associated with retrofitting already-built Joint Strike Fighters will likely increase as the Defense Department ramps up procurement quantities over the next five years. The services plan to purchase another 339 aircraft through 2019 at a cost of $54 billion, despite 40 percent of the developmental test program remaining.
Speaking at the Norwegian-American Defense Conference in Washington April 17, Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan said the concurrency overlap and the number of new discoveries has come down significantly over the last few years, but conceded that the 130 airplanes already in the field will all need to be retrofitted at some point.
“This program started with an immense amount of concurrency,” the general said. “We are going to find other things wrong with this airplane because we have testing left. Our job is to figure out, how once we find those things, we get it into the production line and stop building airplanes that are not appropriate for what we found -- and then putting a program in place to get all of the other airplanes out in the field upgraded to that new capability or to remove those deficiencies.”
“We feel by about 2017, 2018 we will be out of this rut in which we are building airplanes that now have to be retrofitted because of a new discovery,” he continued.
Bogdan explained that the cost of concurrency, $1.7 billion to date, will not be borne solely by the Untied States, but that international partners will also pay their share depending on an agreed retrofit plan tailored to their needs. His comments come as the first Norwegian F-35, AM-1, makes its way down the assembly line at Fort Worth, TX. The first two Norwegian jets will be delivered in 2015 as the European partner works toward achieving initial operational capability in 2019.
“Ultimately, it will be the partner's decision as to whether they want to modify their airplanes and up to what level,” he said. “We will create a plan that allows every single airplane eventually by 2018 to have the full hardware and full software capability that we promised. We believe all the partners will fund it to that level, but they don't have to. We will keep the airplanes in a configuration they desire, but that's a bill we all end up paying.”
Earlier in his presentation, Bogdan said the F-35 JSF program is big, complicated and sometimes very messy, but “this is not the same program it was five years ago.”
Bogdan described Norway as a “model citizen” on the program and the only partner to bring its procurement profile of 52 fighter jets forward. The country was recently selected to host a heavy engine maintenance depot to service jets in Europe, and Bogdan said there would be many more opportunities for Norway and the wider European defense industry to participate in future sustainment work.
According to the general, European partners can expect to see a suite of new requests for proposals come out in the next two to three years as the program delivers more aircraft and moves closer to its initial operational capability milestones.
“The only two things that we've actually assigned so far are heavy airframe depot and heavy engine depot,” he said. “In the future, over the next two to three years, we'll start discussing with the partnership how we'll set up capabilities to repair all sorts of systems: landing gear, hydraulics, avionics, support equipment, warehousing, and setting up the supply chain. -- James Drew
http://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=27240
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

brar_w wrote:
Viv is taking about the R&D budget. Acquisition budget is separate form research budget. Check the budget materials from 2006 to 2016 (FY16 proposal) for more information.
It doesn't matter because once the aircraft is accepted, then it is the O&M budget which will keep it operational.
You didn't answer my question about whether the LRIPs are FFP, CPFF, CPIF contracts?
I answered it a couple of pages back. Every contract from LRIP 5 onwards has been Fixed price minus concurrency changes. Much Like the F-16 (and every other DOD program since ), the F-35 is on a concurrency model. Concurrency cost for the first LRIP 7 or so aircraft (not all cost is for the US but some is also for the International customers) is $1.7 Billion. Concurrency agreements have been signed between the OEM and the JPO and as per them the concurrency cost (Changes discovered during testing that require retrofitting the fleet) would be split 50:50 to an extent and above that 100% would have to be paid by the OEM. Overall concurrency cost is less than 0.5% of the program acquisition cost.
Of course concurrency costs are going to be <0.5% of acquisition cost. LM isn't interested in going bankrupt. So FFP, but what are the costs of the ECPs to date?
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

All said and done, what I find utterly outlandish here is the firm belief that the entire USAF, USN and USMC will allow themselves to become totally dependent on ONE company that is likely to get bought by the PRC any day (probably already there..). Plus of course the rest of the US-allied nations in the world. For the next 30 years - or was it 60 years?

For one thing, USMC won't have money left to buy bootlaces if they spend at the projected rate on these hangar-queens. They ALWAYS back out of these projects early. USN hates STOVL because they buckle the decks, and they hurt the case for large aircraft carriers.

I think they will keep up the noise until a few foreign sales are made to the usual suckers - Netherlands, KSA, Israel, Turkey, Australia, Bahrain, maybe Singapore, doubtful about Japan and Taiwan any more. Maybe arm-twist South Korea. Then they will drop it - I mean go for a VL at 90 AOA.

IIRC, this F-35 design only won that flyoff with Boeing because Boeing was run by idiot managers. They scrapped the tailless design that their ex-MDC technical guys developed, and basically shot down all advances that weren't already on the Harrier. Plus their design was U-G-L-Y. And their union workforce went on strike just before the flight test and left coke cans inside the fuselage.

So let's see - fighter aircraft development is over in the western world for the next 60 years because... drumroll... The F-35 can solve all problems and cannot be improved upon. Except that parts are falling off it, and cracks developing all over at 50 flight hours and beyond. We can call it MILV (Multiple Independent Landing Vehicles) when it comes down in pieces.

IMO the X-37 seems to offer much more interesting aerodynamics and flight control and I hear it's gone supersonic. If I were betting on a technology I would go for a quadrotor UAV to be integrated into an expanded X-37. Or someone else like the Russians will, and start beating the pants off the F-35.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

For one thing, USMC won't have money left to buy bootlaces if they spend at the projected rate on these hangar-queens.
No one bothered telling them but then there may be a slight chance they someone somewhere may stumble upon this forum and be enlightened. Here's to hoping that before DT3 a couple of weeks from now, they take a few minutes off and visit the forum!
IIRC, this F-35 design only won that flyoff with Boeing because Boeing was run by idiot managers.
Who cares..The lost out in the ATF down-select as well..The last pure Boeing designed fighter flew sometime in the 1960's iirc.
So let's see - fighter aircraft development is over in the western world for the next 60 years because... drumroll... The F-35 can solve all problems and cannot be improved upon.
Fighter development isn't dead. You can't develop a fighter for the 2030's and expect it to replace retiring aircraft in the 2016-2035 time period.
Except that parts are falling off it, and cracks developing all over at 50 flight hours and beyond. We can call it MILV (Multiple Independent Landing Vehicles) when it comes down in pieces.
Yup, just about too! Anytime now!
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brar_w
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

Mort Walker wrote:
Of course concurrency costs are going to be <0.5% of acquisition cost. LM isn't interested in going bankrupt. So FFP, but what are the costs of the ECPs to date?
The current estimate is $1.7 Billion, and this is for all ECP's from LRIP 1 to LRIP 7. LRIP 8 is an estimate since there is always a possibility of the changes to be ready in the line by the time they enter production. They have had to revise concurrency down over the last 3 years, because the vendor has incorporated changes into the line faster than they anticipated. Unless there is something else that is discovered int eh remaining SDD testing, the program is expected to escape concurrency changes by LRIP8 and even at LRIP8 the concurrency changes are fairly low. The main (disproportionate) concurrency cost is for the first 4-5 LRIP's
It doesn't matter because once the aircraft is accepted, then it is the O&M budget which will keep it operational.
Yes, but outside of the BCA they aren't adding new aircraft, they are replacing outgoing aircraft with incoming aircraft. Its not like they haven't had the time to plan for this, they have had what 6 extra years to plan for it ?? :D
Of course concurrency costs are going to be <0.5% of acquisition cost. LM isn't interested in going bankrupt. So FFP, but what are the costs of the ECPs to date?
You should have seen the uproar when these estimates were all over the place..!
USN hates STOVL because they buckle the decks, and they hurt the case for large aircraft carriers.
USN has no demand, and has never considered (nor anyone suggested) that they buy the STOVL version. In fact the F35B cannot take off or land from their carriers unless it takes off and lands like it does on the USMC ships (but why??). The USMC however is buying some F-35C's to operate out of USN CVN's
They ALWAYS back out of these projects early.
The biggest support for the acquisition phase for the F-35 is from the USMC, then the USAF and then the USN. The Marines need the aircraft the MOST since they are loosing out capability at the fastest rate out of the three services. This is a reason why they are declaring IOC a full 12 months ahead of the USAF.
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Viv S
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Viv S »

Mort Walker wrote:The $60 billion is from an acquisition budget. The O&M budget is for organic support. They can only absorb a certain amount, but if Congress and LM lobbyist force the F-35 in significant numbers on the services in the long run, it will cost much more than maintaining existing fighter aircraft platforms even though the older weapon systems may be more labor intensive.
$60 bn is just the R&D budget including the cost of developing the ALIS real-time maintenance software. All of which is already sanctioned funding. Procurement costs come under a different heading and are currently estimated at $330bn for the entire run of 2,443 aircraft.

O&M costs are currently $32,000/hr. Which is on the higher side, but hardly bank breaking. And it is being reduced further.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

Viv S wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:The $60 billion is from an acquisition budget. The O&M budget is for organic support. They can only absorb a certain amount, but if Congress and LM lobbyist force the F-35 in significant numbers on the services in the long run, it will cost much more than maintaining existing fighter aircraft platforms even though the older weapon systems may be more labor intensive.
$60 bn is just the R&D budget including the cost of developing the ALIS real-time maintenance software. All of which is already sanctioned funding. Procurement costs come under a different heading and are currently estimated at $330bn for the entire run of 2,443 aircraft.

O&M costs are currently $32,000/hr. Which is on the higher side, but hardly bank breaking. And it is being reduced further.
The number is also all over the place. The A version numbers (matters because its a 2/3 of your fleet) are between 24,000, 26,000 all the way up to 30,000. At the end of the day they are developing a roadmap to get the O&S cost of the fleet to within 20% of the legacy fleet (its currently around 40%) but then it would be a fairly interesting exercise to see what the difference was for the F-15A compared to the F-4 (Hint: It was significantly more than 20% - one can ask F4 and F-16 drivers over at f-16.net and they have plenty of tales.. to tell). With every generation you are going to add capability. The F-16A showed up as a LWF..The F-35 is a medium sized strike fighter.. So yes just as the F-16 and F-15 cost more than the aircraft they replaced (to procure and operate) the F-22 and F-35 will cost more to operate..And this applies to every other aircraft...No F-16A operator (ex) that switches over to F-16 Blk 50 pays the F-16A CPFH...or pays the same when he/she upgrades to a Rafale...



The 2014 fleet of fighters spends what 12 Billion per year to operate...Perhaps 13...Compare this to what it cost the 3rd gen fleet to keep up in the air...or even the cost of the same 4th gen fleet 15 years ago when you didn't need all the mission critical stuff. I am not even adding support aircraft costs here since the SIMAF analysis showed quite early on (Wright Patt AFB) that the support requirement for the F-35 was about a 1/3 compared to the legacy. There is a good reason why the CNI suite is the way it is !


In fact what would be a really really (x2) worthwhile exercise would be to dig up budget materials form 1970, 1990, 2000, and 2010 and 2015 compared Fleet O&M costs....Starting the 90's and till 2010 you essentially had a very similar fleet but kitted out a lot differently, and in the 1970 make up was a lot lot different. From the top of my my head I can predict a 25-30% increase in O&M cost (inflation adjusted) per decade at a minimum..Why would a similar gradual rise in that cost be unreasonable going into 2030, 2040 and 2050? This is something worth looking into..I have a lot of old budget materials with me...Will perhaps give this a shot over the weekend, but I think my numbers are on the conservative side...Combat aircraft add capability and with it you add cost...There is no way around that. the F-16A was an LWF that shot only Sidewinders...The Blk 60/50/52 Viper has an AESA, Shoots a heck of a lot of AMRAAM's, has a FLIR, potential IRST, Active jammer, CNI suite, new cockpit displays, HMD/HOBS and is a much more powerful engine - basically all the stuff that can give Sprey a heart attack!! Don't promise anything but will try giving it a shot over the weekend !

Same experience with the IAF that went from a Mig-21 dominated fleet, and gradually added the Mig-29, M2K, and the Heavy fighter in the Su-30MKI that is now its main go to weapons system In fact the last many years of procurement for the IAF has been almost exclusively in the Su-30MKI a HEAVY fighter with a BIG radar, huge engines, EW suite, IRST, 2 Pilots and all the stuff that constitutes high upkeep, and high relative cost.. Expect the Su-50/FGFA to be even more costly to maintain and support..The trade-offs are made (getting a lot many highly capable MKI's) because the technical merits of the aircraft are well worth the added cost. Similarly I susoect them to favor larger fleet of MK2 LCA than MK1, and with better electronics, subsystems and a more powerful engine the MK2 should more to maintain (relatively) compared to the MK1. Same applies to the Typhoon. I bet the Austrlan Vanilla Typhoons that they are considering retiring are much simpler than the swash plate AESA mounted, meteor firing, upgraded Phoon. But the operators do like to add more capability incremental and There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch!!!

.No one is reversing the trend and this was never revered even in earlier generations...Air Combat gets expensive every generation..Just compare the cost of missiles..The meteor is now what $ 3.2 Million if not a little more (Saudi Deal)..Compare that to the Aim-120A cost..or that of the Sparrow.
Last edited by brar_w on 01 May 2015 10:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by NRao »

No, the same people don't work on the different systems. Each weapon system, already incorporated into force structure, needs personnel to keep them operationally ready and they can't be moved to another program. Work centers are geographically separated at different bases. The reality is that USAF and USN will hire LM for engineering services.

Right now USAF is gearing up to get ready for the LRS-B award. It will be one big mo-fo contract well past 2030.
not going to be as bad as one normally expects it to be. It will, however, have its hiccups.

In short, this is not a turkey. But, it could have been better - IMHO.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

With the F-35 you have a much higher level of complexity in software, sensors, avionics and engine maintenance. It won't be a simple 25-30% inflation adjusted increase, but really much higher due to specialized logistics infrastructure support. The USAF logistics centers at Hill or Warner Robbins will need to have the appropriate infrastructure to maintain these aircraft once operational. As happened with the last sequester, the people who maintain the F-35 subsystems, could be idle for over a month and cause a workload slip of several months.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

With the F-35 you have a much higher level of complexity in software, sensors, avionics and engine maintenance. It won't be a simple 25-30% inflation adjusted increase, but really much higher due to specialized logistics infrastructure support. The USAF logistics centers at Hill or Warner Robbins will need to have the appropriate infrastructure to maintain these aircraft once operational. As happened with the last sequester, the people who maintain the F-35 subsystems, could be idle for over a month and cause a workload slip of several months.
Mort, Infrastructure upgrade cost has been constantly spent and facilities upgraded and prepped by all three services. You can google up what they have achieved at each of the bed-down locations and what the O&S plans are specifically to the F-35.

Do keep in mind that the USAF's own estimates range from 10% (above the F-16 block 52) to 30% above block 52 in CPFH. Ultimately, do also keep in mind that starting July 2016 (USAF IOC) the USAF will not have 1776 F-35A's. The fleet gradually builds up...and even in the early 2020's it would still be a large F-16 dominated fleet..The gradually transition into the F-35A @ 80 aircraft per year starting 2020 (deliveries). Your O&M costs do not spike but gradually rise, just as they have been for the last few decades..and just as they did when you shifted from the F-4 to the F-15 and F-16. or when F-16A operators, shifted to the much more advanced capable Block 50 F-16 or when F-16 operators shift to the Typhoon...Or when the Mig-21 squadrons shift to the Rafale, or the Su-30MKI...Or even the more capable LCA MK II

If NG weapons are required to cost less compared to the aircraft they are replacing we wouldnt have new aircraft ever. Even the F-16 block 50/52 costs more to operate than the F-16A it replaces. Same with the Tranch 2/3 Typhoon..With more capability comes more cost! The F-35A is a 29,000 pound empty aircraft, with 18+K Pounds of internal fuel carriage...Its not your Boyd's F-16A LWF or LCA MK 1. The reason it is in that class because thats the range/payload/survivability the USAF needs in a combat aircraft for the future to replace the F-16 (and the USN F/A-18). Do you think the chinese will be spending any less on their uber J-20's form an O&S perspective compared to their really old crappy legacy aircraft? Would the PAKFA/SU-50 cost he russians as much to operate as the Mig-29???

It would have been nice had the USAF only needed to have a Light weight fighter for air base defense...A nice 5000 pound fuel payload, whizbang performance, no tanks clean 200 Nm interception mission and back after a tank. However the realities are different. The JORD came to be based on their own simulation and wargaming that revolved around survivability (in fact the USAF wanted less stealth but the USN insisted on having better signature since they had dropped the NATF by then), range, payload because they didn't expect the usual 50-100nm tanker support in the future (Push the Tankers back to 300 nm + or be prepared to loose them). Contrary to popular belief (in the media anyway) the KPP's came into existence after more than a year of intense wargaming different scenarios at Wright Patterson AFB...in the most complex classified simulation they have conducted..They also upgraded their entire RCS ranges before the JSF for the survivability testing (Holloman got bistatic)...The range payload requirement of the F-35 is to carry 2000 lb bombs (2) with self-defense missions with a full 18K fuel, and still outrange an F-16 with 2 CFT's, 2 EFT's , 2 1000 pound bombs...and considerably outrange it in optimum profile against SAM. Plus be able to go supersonic with that payload and turn in configurations where the Viper can basically enter into defense only with a mission kill. The F-35C outranges an F/A-18 by 2X if not more (CNO testimony just last month). The range requirement and especially range/payload requirement is so intense that apparently they want even more...The Adaptive engines promise up to 30-35% lower sfc and the first engine that they are building (GE and PW called the AETD - google it) is in the same thrust class as the F35. The Pivot requires additional range! Expect the F-22A replacement in the 2030's to be at least 30% larger than it!

There is a paper on f-16.net that I'll try to dig up and post. It talks about the entire simulation and how it was conducted in support of the joint document that laid out the performance. It wasn't just a bunch of folks sitting in a room with a pen and a paper. When the Europeans came into the program, they ran the simulations again and compared the aircraft to both their perceived threats and their current way of doing things. The requested not one but 2 sessions at Wright Patt before they signed up finally.

AVIONICS and electronics are a reality. Everyone is getting access to the best possible technology, and those that have older stuff are trying level best to upgrade (Including the uSAF with their F-15 and F-16 modernization). That aside, the biggest driver of CPFH is generally the aircraft weight. Cost and O&S cost has generally tracked fairly decently with per/pound calculations. As you can see, a same_technology GRIPEN costs less to operate than the much larger Typhoon. Yet, the USAF and the USN asked for a medium class fighter because one was required for the mission...Thats the cost of "doing business" in the future. Every other aircraft that is either buying majority Su30(IAF), Typhoons replacing F-16's (medium fighter replacing what was once a LWF) has made the same decision...

Do keep in mind that the current CPFH estimates are based on a fleet that has 3-4 LRIP block aircraft that have had CONCURRENCY DEFINED but not CONCURRENCY IMPLEMENTED, i.e. they are not as reliable as the later block aircraft because they have to have changes incorporated into them..ALIS V(1) is CRAP...ALIS V (2) is slated for Fleet release in June..Basically you are currently supporting a fleet that you know does not exhibit characteristics that you will see in the final product that IOC's. That is by design, because you as a nation (3 services) made a decision that concurrency changes will all be clubbed together and incorporated prior to IOC. When they look at LRIP5 aircraft they are far more mature, more reliable, and have lower maintain then original LRIP1 aircraft that basically need to go back to the depot and get changes. As the fleet matures and builds up the Pre-Concurrency aircraft will become a minority until the USAF and USMC basically incorporate all concurrency changes prior to Unit_IOC.

So except LCC estimates (CAPE) and O&S cost estimates including CPFH to come down, just as acquisition cost estimates have consistently come down over the last 5 production blocks. With 30,000 hours on the fleet there isn't enough "good quality" data yet. Wait till at least each version of the aircraft incorporates that many flight hours before you can nail down a stable CPFH...on top of that they are still working on the optimal deployment and training model...You don't know exactly how much you are going to spend on operating it because your model is still a work in process. What is clear is that neither the USMC, nor the USAF are looking to train, and operate the F-35 fleets in a similar fashion to the F-16's and Harriers/F-18's of the past. YET, the F-35A will always cost more than the F-16, just as the Typhoon costs more than an F-16A, B or earlyC or how the F-15 cost more than the F-4's it replaced.

http://www.sldinfo.com/the-f-35-and-the ... ecosystem/

Also just an FYI, the Last LRIP -6 lot production aircraft has been delivered so LRIP deliveries are complete and now they are making all LRIP 7 aircraft in fort worth and Cameri Italy.

First flight picture

Image
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

Image
Augustine's Laws: US Combat Aircraft Price
This is of course only the start of the story: it's like buying a Jaguar. As you saw above, the acquisition cost is less than 1/10 of the (short) lifecycle cost. This is the part, evidently (per empirical studies at BRF) that makes the 'fans' enraged, just as it does to car sales(wo)men.

The other side is the truly bad one: All reports of real problems are swept aside in the rush to manufacture. In WW2 at least they used to try to upgrade planes that had problems, to try and minimize pilot deaths. Now they simply threaten engineers who cite issues. I didn't believe my ears on that (ppl called into offices and threatened for bringing technical evidence to the attention of their own chain of command) until I posted some innocent questions on this thread and saw the avalanche of gobbledygook from PR blitzes to snow over the issues, and the absolute avoidance of the real issues.

This is much worse than the Nuclear Industry's record back in the 1970s-80s (like in the Jane Fonda movie, China Syndrome, or 'Silkwood'). And one can see why - these ppl plan to grab most of the US defense budget as well as those of several other nations. Sort-of the ENRON of the combat aircraft industry.

The reports are absolutely scary. Makes for some great afternoon soap opera prospects when the Congressional Hearings start after the full extent of the disaster comes to light. Maybe it will be called the People's Lepubric of Amelica and so there the hearings will be medal ceremonies in the Great Harr of the People in WashingtonDC Mao Tse Dong City.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 01 May 2015 17:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

How about doing the chart with all other combat aircraft out there? Like the Price of the Migs compared to -21's 30 years ago, the price of the Su-35, and Su-50 from comparable Soviet aircraft from 40 years ago (lets go back even further to Soviet aircraft from the 1920's)..Also the cost of the Typhoon vs the F-16A of the 70's (11 Million per aircraft compared to 100+ Million per aircraft for the Typhoon)..

The 1/3 - 2/3 ratio has roughly remained the same when it comes to acquisition cost vs LCC. Its true for 4th gen aircraft, 4+ gen aircraft and 5th gen aircraft.

Image

Its actually a genuine problem that nations around the world face. None have however reversed the trend of "each subsequent modernization costing more than the previous one". Much of this has to do with the fact that demands change. European Typhoon customers that are looking to replace the F-16 with it are shifting form a LWF F-16 they they initially bought to a 50k+ F-22 like A2A fighter with secondary Multi role capability. US isn't buying a LWF because they haven't operated the F-16 as such since block 30. The USN needs 2+ times more range than the F/A-18 it is replacing. Cost of combat is getting more expensive..Just compare the cost of a Sparrow from the 80's, to that of the Meteor now.
Last edited by brar_w on 01 May 2015 17:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

Man! I hadn't finished typing the post before the local Thread Watch attacked! And unlike me relaxing after dinner after a hard day's toil on the Mongolian slopes evaluating yaks, today must be a working day, it must be around 8:50AM in the Eastern USA where LMC HQ is located!!! So someone is being paid for a 24-hour watch on this thread! Wonder what the situation is at other forums where ppl post stuff. Wonder what has happened to those people who posted the article and comments I posted yesterday. :eek:

Yup! The stories were understated.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 01 May 2015 17:34, edited 1 time in total.
brar_w
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

UlanBatori wrote:Man! I hadn't finished typing the post before the local Thread Watch attacked!
You just love to take shots at people don't you!! Keep at it!
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by pragnya »

since our favourite Yak herder is on a song, isn't it time to change thread title to - JSF, is it a "yak" or a "turkey"? :wink:

PS - love your posts UlanBatori. you have a way of putting across your points - cryptic pingrezi but very insightful. it is a gift.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

Do keep in mind that the USAF's own estimates range from 10% (above the F-16 block 52) to 30% above block 52 in CPFH. Ultimately, do also keep in mind that starting July 2016 (USAF IOC) the USAF will not have 1776 F-35A's. The fleet gradually builds up...and even in the early 2020's it would still be a large F-16 dominated fleet..The gradually transition into the F-35A @ 80 aircraft per year starting 2020 (deliveries). Your O&M costs do not spike but gradually rise, just as they have been for the last few decades..and just as they did when you shifted from the F-4 to the F-15 and F-16. or when F-16A operators, shifted to the much more advanced capable Block 50 F-16 or when F-16 operators shift to the Typhoon...Or when the Mig-21 squadrons shift to the Rafale, or the Su-30MKI...Or even the more capable LCA MK II
This is field operational costs. Logistics, software systems maintenance/development, and hardware engineering costs for the vast array of sensors, are not presented. This is something no one will openly discuss. The F-35 is as complex to maintain as an electronics warfare platform in terms of work involving the hardware and software, but it may actually be harder since it is an offensive weapon system and changes will be constant due to changing threat situations. It will be a technical challenge for the USAF and USN to maintain at a lower level of support which will be very needed. Even to this day USAF spends considerably for B-52 low level engineering support since it is a platform for the delivery of very modern weapon systems, but it is mostly organic support with little from the contractor. The F-35 will need LM engineering services for this level of support and it will be very expensive. Yes O&M costs gradually rise, but the O&M budget is guaranteed to be cut in this fiscal climate.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

Hello, Mr(s) Brar/ anyone else: I am posting on a forum where I have been a member since I was allowed on the Internet last year. I post what I see and read, since I cannot think. I do NOT post for or against any postor/ess in particular - AFAIK this thread is not owned by anyone but the Czars-e-BRF.

I think my concerns are proven by the actions/ posts seen on this thread, thanks!! Best regards.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

This is field operational costs. Logistics, software systems maintenance/development, and hardware engineering costs for the vast array of sensors, are not presented. This is something no one will openly discuss. The F-35 is as complex to maintain as an electronics warfare platform in terms of work involving the hardware and software, but it may actually be harder since it is an offensive weapon system and changes will be constant due to changing threat situations.
Mort, they have presented trends for the entire fleet O&S cost over time and this includes CPFH for the individual aircraft include what they intend on spending to fully fund ops and maintain plus sustainment of the fleet (2400 aircraft).
I do NOT post for or against any postor/ess in particular - AFAIK this thread is not owned by anyone but the Czars-e-BRF.
So debate the post and don't take pot shots at the poster! And I did not ATTACK you as you mentioned..Its an interesting thing you have raised (Cost form 1 generation to the other) and I wished that you add to your analysis what the global trend is as well in this department. How much did the IAF pay for the M2K and Mig-29 fleet's ? What are they paying for the Dassault Rafale Fleet?
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

(Thanks, pragnya 8) )
Mort: The other issue lurking underneath is that of the Stealth cost. IMO, the reports from first Russia and now China indicate that they are getting over the shock of the radar stealth issue. Of course defeating radar is not the only Stealth, but it is the costliest one. The whole idea AFAIK is minimizing RCS --- tuned to a certain frequency range. The range is pretty broad, but is centered around a few GHZ. What would I do if faced with this? I would bite the bullet and invest in 'radars' that include very low and very high frequencies, as expensive as that may be. Millimeter wave radar is already known, but not nearly high enough in frequency. Going to the extreme of millimeter wave and into the optic is one avenue, while going down to very long wavelength radio waves, ultrasonics and then even plain acoustics is the other.
(Will return after a few minutes, give a chance for the artillery wave to wash over, to post the implications)
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by NRao »

MW, where are you getting this from?
Logistics, software systems maintenance/development, and hardware engineering costs for the vast array of sensors, are not presented. This is something no one will openly discuss.
Or, perhaps, what are you expecting, perhaps compared to some previous experience?

Thx.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by NRao »

The F-35 will need LM engineering services for this level of support and it will be very expensive.
Are these your opinions? Or something you have read (about the JSF) that leads you to say this?
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

Point is this: Take 'Stealth' away as a primary issue, and both the F-22 and the F-35 become rather ordinary: this is why they won't post results of fly-offs against F-16s for instance. This problem has been well-known since the 1980s. F-16 is not anything great for post-stall maneuvering: recovery from a sharp nose-up (like to 100 degrees) is terrible unless you go to the experimental versions with canards etc installed. Trouble is, Stealth planes are far worse. Shape is not optimized for flight, it is optimized for RCS. Things MAY change with some new flow control actuators etc, but it is far easier to go to an airframe that has good aerodynamics, like the Russians have done, if that means very low fly-off and maintenance costs, meaning they can afford several. So the F-35 is probably not the best option to zip through the canyons of POK, for instance, and take out the terrorist camps.

In any future wars, these planes are not point-kill or close-air-combat weapon systems, they are mainly detection/penetration/missile delivery platforms. "Airbase defense" as I saw posted somewhere, is laughable: Against a shower of things coming in at Mach 6? Only a fast-loading laser can deal with that, and those are way too heavy for such an a/c. Besides, if you need a STOVL to defend an airbase, the airbase is already reduced to the state of that one in Ukraine that has changed hands a few times.

F-35 was a good idea as long as it was an inexpensive, single-seater to be common to all services in small numbers and keep pilot jocks happey, but now corporate and political greed has taken over, and they are trying to project it as the one-size-fits-all u-don't-need-nothin-else solution for the entire national defense.

Trouble is, the 'narrative' is ever more about 'net-centric warfare' and all the other stuff that demands $$T to keep up an army of desk-jocks happy for each plane in the sky - IOW, transitioning swiftly and surely to the mode of operation of the Red Air Force and the PLAF.

If a single pilot trying not to throw up because she is sitting in a wobbling, vibrating, NOISY and cramped tube can operate all those myriad Systems while trying not to crash, that is because of highly automated Pilot Workload Reduction Systems and Situational Awareness Augmentation Systems. One has to ask why such systems cannot also see better, think better and fly the plane better than a human pilot. Kids routinely tele-operate helicopter models these days, and autonomous UAVs are all over the place incl. WarMalt, what's so tough about a VTOL, let alone CTOL, airplane? Take the pilot away and all the other constraints on the airplane design become so much easier. No coffee machine, no Coke machine, no British Army Pith Helmet (if you Pith into it, you can't Mith), no ejection seat, no canopy, no oxygen system, no levers, dials... and you can routinely go to 14 Gs, no problem.

So now one has a $120M gizmo with a $300M support cost to keep up, faced with a horde of little X-37-class supersonic interceptors each costing maybe $5M, each carrying a SmartPhone and a few smart rocks that can reach Mach 6 or 7. And one has no backup system because onehas spent all one's budget on a COMMON Joint-Services ARCHITECTURE. This is like flying a single-operator IBM Deep Blue to fight a flash mob of looters armed with Nokia 5230s.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by deejay »

^^^ That is an awesome JSF analysis. Turkey / Talisman best heard from the "yak herder" and the post of fame goes to:
WarMalt,
:lol:
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by brar_w »

Point is this: Take 'Stealth' away as a primary issue, and both the F-22 and the F-35 become rather ordinary: this is why they won't post results of fly-offs against F-16s for instance.
For the second time, DT aircraft do not perform DACT. F-16's support the Developmental testing of the F-35's and this what AF2 was doing over there. DT is not in charge of developing tactics, or verifying them that is done separately. F-35 will be put up gains the F-16, F-18 and other aircraft in DACT but not by these birds and not as a part of test-point completion.

Also the point about the F-22 vs F-16 is plainly wrong. Plenty of F-22 performance has been shared through the SAR and by pilot/test pilot's, An F-22A destroys the F-16 in supersonic range, supercruise peformance, supersonic sustained G's, Transonic acceleration, Low Speed High AOA and post-stall performance. The information is littered around the world wide web.

Combat squadrons and the tacticians at Nellis will of course start pitting up the F-35 against the F-16 in an operational environment (OT&E is yet to come) and you'll hear plenty of that. Trying to poke holes in DT testing where the F-16 in a support role for developmental test completion is pathetic at best. Every DT effort has support aircraft. They aren't pitting one again the other, using what tactics exactly? NONE...Test pilots aren't going through the tactics development ands syllabus...their job is to test the aircraft and finish test points, expand the envelope and clear it for the operational fleet. They require support aircraft for this, be it test beds, and other fighters...
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by Mort Walker »

UlanBatori wrote:(Thanks, pragnya 8) )
Mort: The other issue lurking underneath is that of the Stealth cost. IMO, the reports from first Russia and now China indicate that they are getting over the shock of the radar stealth issue. Of course defeating radar is not the only Stealth, but it is the costliest one. The whole idea AFAIK is minimizing RCS --- tuned to a certain frequency range. The range is pretty broad, but is centered around a few GHZ. What would I do if faced with this? I would bite the bullet and invest in 'radars' that include very low and very high frequencies, as expensive as that may be. Millimeter wave radar is already known, but not nearly high enough in frequency. Going to the extreme of millimeter wave and into the optic is one avenue, while going down to very long wavelength radio waves, ultrasonics and then even plain acoustics is the other.
This is correct, but it becomes an issue of do you have the technical resources and money to overcome stealth? In the case of Russia and China, yes, but they've actually got to deploy these modern radar systems over a large area by 2030. In radar you're faced with a few physical problems regarding frequencies. One, high frequencies near 10 GHz are subject to water vapor attenuation and velocity resolution, two, low frequencies are subject to interference and jamming. So this limits which frequencies can be best used. RCS is a description of how much energy is reflected back to your receiver. There has been considerable improvement in receiver sensitivity and with the implementation of modern Analog to Digital Converters (ADCs), FPGAs, and very precise (and cheap) atomic clocks. The Chinese are spending money on radar for ornithology, ground sensing, and weather, but what does that have to do with stealth? They are technical lessons learned on how much energy is reflected back to your receiver when trying to detect something which has a very low RCS. DRDO is also learning the same lessons hence they've decided to do their large scale AWACs. Which, I would bet be able to detect butterflies stealth aircraft.
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Post by UlanBatori »

Scenarios to up-end the RCS calculation might include a few like this:
1) Stealth is based in part on geometry: they slant the surfaces to get over the Bragg Angle for the types of radiation that they anticipate, and try to keep the waves bouncing inside once captured, using coatings (I think..). The RCS is huge if you could be looking sideways/downward, for instance.

Ha! u say. How u gonna park at 40,000 feet?
Answer: By investing in 400% Carbon Reduction Initiatives.

Park a few Stratospheric Platforms at 40K -50K feet, powered by the sun. Suddenly, Stealth a/c become very visible many miles out.
With some protection, of course, but those platforms now become fighter-directors.
Sure, those can be "taken out" but its another step to take b4 ur 'surprise' sortie.

2) Rain etc kill mmwave.
Not so fast. Again, the radar "tower" can be located in a tethered aerostat at 12-15,000 m. Such tethered things already exist for other purposes. So now the mm wave is again looking sideways/downwards from above the clouds, and the mmwaves can even be generated at ground level and sent up through waveguides in the tethers. Vaporware, u say? Well.. such waveguides already exist, can be bought from General Atomics website, for instance. Used for fission/fusion 'research'.
Note that rain etc also deter those Stealth fighter sorties using the Wobblin' Goblins, most of the time. The hyooman pilot, between episodes of vomiting, will be trying to get the windshield viper operating and wiping inside the windshield with her embroidered handkerchief.

3) Yes, it's a huge investment. But every Defense service all over the Duniya has looked at what happened to Saddam and his Imperial Guard and his vaunted Air Fauj. Same at Serbia, and said:
There but for the grace of ATM go I!
Surely they have been looking at the implications for their own ability to stay independent and be able to say :P to Dubya and Cheney? If u were Defense Mantri and the baksheesh were the same either way, would u invest in imports of big fighter planes, or lots of small imports of certain electronic components? Its been 25 years since Desert Shield etc. Not everyone is as stupid as they appear, hain? Some of what is displayed in Ukraine is pretty awesome in targeting precision, and they probably have good detection as well. I think they have come a long way since the Berlin Wall came down, in terms of digital electronics. They have always been good at mmwave and lasers.

4) Faced with huge US technical superiority using these immensely expensive systems, what would a good strategist do? (say India..)
a) Distribute your detection assets so that they can't be 'taken out' in 24 hours or air raids. Lots of Ambassador cars, bullock carts, maybe 'Gajendra' elephant-borne radar?
b) Distribute your SAMs. Point defense is a terrible idea.
c) Reduce dependence on grid-based power.
d) Vary your technology and standardization,
e) Distribute and empower rather than concentrate C^3 so that one leak of circuit diagrams and codes doesn't kill you.
f) Convert communications to fiber-optic plus innovative last-mile options, so that they can't hack or knock out your C^3.

So the US pouring all resources into one 1990s Bright Idea for the next 30 years suddenly looks not-so-hot.
So I don't believe that will happen. These days, any program that sticks it's head up above the $40B mark (LHX estimate, 1980s) just does the equivalent of the legendary Kabir sitting out on the tree... Target #1 for cuts.
Which is why, I think the F-35 proponents are so insecure.
We have met the Enemy..
And he is Common Sense.
The other side of all this is that for the Inferior Ones, being able to SEE an incoming US aircraft is no comfort if one cannot hit it. So they would also be investing heavily in hypersonic weapons such as kinetic-kill, or hypersonic cruise missiles. I don't see what an F-35 can do against those - only the Air Force version has even one cannon. Do they have Force Fields I wonder.

Detect one of those noisy engines with the signature of the counter-rotating turbomachines zooming overhead at Mach 1.6 ... automatic launch of hypersonic kinetic-kill chase missiles, reaching Mach 7. Hundreds of them.
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