Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 11 May 2015 17:58

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/1 ... OO20150511

Beijing has been pushing India to accelerate work on a multi-billion dollar rail link from New Delhi to Chennai ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China this week, as the Asian giants put economic ties before regional rivalries.

China, which is conducting a feasibility study into a $36 billion bullet train project from the capital in the north to Chennai in the south, has asked for work to begin on a pilot project covering part of the route, officials said.

The two sides have also agreed to speed up implementation of a shorter high-speed rail corridor from Chennai to Bengaluru, as China seeks to cash in on Modi's vision of modernising a creaking train system that 25 million people use daily.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 11 May 2015 17:59

http://www.manilatimes.net/20-b-on-modi ... le/182646/

With deals worth $20 billion on the table between Indian and Chinese private companies and South Korean mega-corporation Hyundai’s likely announcement of a major warships project, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to cement economic bridges with China and South Korea during his five-day trip next week.

Modi will be hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping in his hometown Xian on May 14, followed by official meetings in Beijing on May 15 and economic interaction in Shanghai.

The PM will be interacting with top CEOs of Chinese companies, exchanging candid views on the bilateral relationship with President Xi. “The bilateral political takeaways from the visit are still work in progress, and India has conveyed to China that it may be a strong power but Beijing cannot be an acceptable global power without the support of New Delhi,” a senior Union minister said.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 11 May 2015 23:41

A_Gupta wrote:http://www.manilatimes.net/20-b-on-modi ... le/182646/
The PM will be interacting with top CEOs of Chinese companies, exchanging candid views on the bilateral relationship with President Xi. “The bilateral political takeaways from the visit are still work in progress, and India has conveyed to China that it may be a strong power but Beijing cannot be an acceptable global power without the support of New Delhi,” a senior Union minister said.

Let the game begin with India the ultimate balancer , Master of Kathakaliki (Dance+Katha+Akaal + Kaalia+ Kaliki) Foreign policy?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 12 May 2015 04:35

We should be under no self-delusions though. This might be some kind of a detente for a few years. But fundamentally, India and PRC are headed for a confrontation. As long as PRC does not give-up its Paki-pasand policies, there can in the long-run be NO India-China friendship.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 12 May 2015 05:56

Let the game begin with India the ultimate balancer , Master of Kathakaliki (Dance+Katha+Akaal + Kaalia+ Kaliki) Foreign policy?

Sorry, but this is all bordering on the delusional -- the pakis have very real nuclear capability, i.e., chinese nukes, that the chinese handed to them. What kind of kathakali is supposed to neutralize this unless china is also surrounded by a half a dozen nuclear armed states thanks to India? India seems to be ultimately deluded if it thinks it can overlook the chinese proliferation of WMD to India's worst enemies and somehow do a lungi dance or kathakali dance and resolve issues in India's favor. sheesh. China is a full-blown enemy of the worst sort and needs to pay in kind if its "Strategic" WMD proliferation harms India down the line -- that is the only way. All these fantasies about Indian diplomacy achieving this and that is laughable. The geniuses can do diddley with a state like Pakistan, and they are supposed to take down china with their "diplomacy"? seriously.

BJP apparently canceled meeting with Dalai Lama because they just cr@pped in their undies about China's awesomeness..and these jokers (or the INC) have the intestinal fortitude to take on China, eh? Likely story.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 12 May 2015 07:35

http://swarajyamag.com/world/managing-c ... ed-waters/

Utterly silly article that misreads china completely. Arming Pakis with nukes in not a "tactical move", it is a strategic one. The bit about "watch what they do, not what they say" applies to every country, not just china.

That is just one of the many things this article gets wrong...including swallowing China's BS about a "trilateral partnership" with colombo. If the GoI actually buys this bilge, this regime just shot India in the foot long term, but we should know soon enough, after the visit to China.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 12 May 2015 10:26

A_Gupta wrote:http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/1 ... OO20150511
Beijing has been pushing India to accelerate work on a multi-billion dollar rail link from New Delhi to Chennai ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China this week, as the Asian giants put economic ties before regional rivalries.

China, which is conducting a feasibility study into a $36 billion bullet train project from the capital in the north to Chennai in the south, has asked for work to begin on a pilot project covering part of the route, officials said.

The two sides have also agreed to speed up implementation of a shorter high-speed rail corridor from Chennai to Bengaluru, as China seeks to cash in on Modi's vision of modernising a creaking train system that 25 million people use daily.

I hope India is sensible and does stuff in its best interests. China is desperate for rail diplomacy and exporting rail projects elsewhere in the world so it can keep its steel, iron and construction companies happy. The Modi govt is hopefully sensible and sees through it and extracts the max and treats them the way China treats other partners. Unemotionally and critically and put them down in various ways and refuse to comply if they don't accept to the Indian govt's offers.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 12 May 2015 12:09

X-posted from STFU-TSP thread

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor and India - Priyanka Singh, IDSA Comment

The hype surrounding the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), to be built through Gilgit Baltistan, resurfaced with the recent visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan. The visit yet again generated an animated discourse in the global media about the corridor’s future. The long-gestated CPEC project received initial traction during Nawaz Sharif’s visits to China in the year 2014. Subsequently, on his maiden visit to Pakistan in April 2015, the Chinese President reaffirmed the previously announced commitment, worth $46 billion, towards the CPEC. The CPEC is considered a significant project that seeks to cement Sino-Pakistan bilateral ties and further consolidate their strategic ties. The corridor will run through India’s periphery, more significantly, Gilgit Baltistan, claimed by India as part of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). In due course, this geographical reality of the CPEC could potentially impinge upon India’s geopolitical calculations and pose a strategic challenge.

China’s approach, India’s response

In December 2014, the Chinese state-run Xinhua published a statement announcing the closure of the strategic Khunjerab Pass and in the process referred to Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan. Until then, China had maintained that J&K was a bilateral problem/dispute between India and Pakistan. Whether terming Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan reflected a possible shift in the Chinese position on the J&K— a change from its previously held neutral position – was debated in the Indian media for a while. A section believes that by taking up a long term project such as the CPEC, the arteries of which will originate in Gilgit Baltistan, China has yet again tacitly approved Pakistan’s claim and control over this region. There was no reaction from the Indian official sources to the Xinhua statement. In the past, a similar statement was withdrawn after India registered a protest to the Chinese news agency.

Responding to a query in the Lok Sabha in December 2014, Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj noted:
“Government has seen reports with regard to China and Pakistan being involved in infrastructure building activities in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), including construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Government has conveyed its concerns to China about their activities in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, and asked them to cease such activities.”2

But somewhat contravening the above is a recent statement by India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, who noted:

“India has no worry over the construction of Pakistan-China Economic Corridor as an economically strong Pakistan would bring stability in the region.”3

India is yet to comprehensively articulate its approach towards the CPEC despite the fact that the corridor bodes strategic implications for India. As stated, the corridor will pass through the Gilgit Baltistan region where China has invested in the past in infrastructure and hydropower projects. In the Gilgit Baltistan segment, the CPEC project design includes a major expansion of the Karakoram Highway, establishing industrial parks in special economic zones, constructing hydropower projects, railway line and road building. The project also entails building hydropower projects and motorways/highways in the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). India has occasionally raised objections to Chinese infrastructure investment in the region.

The origin of the CPEC could be traced to the Border Agreement of 1963, considered a milestone in China-Pakistan relations. The agreement ceded the 5000 plus square mile Trans Karakorum Tract to China and served as a precursor to the Karakoram Highway, conceived later as a strategic link defining China and Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friendship’. The then Defence Minister of India, Krishna Menon, elaborately enunciated India’s position on the issue at the UN, condemning the agreement as illegitimate. Besides, India lodged an “emphatic protest” to China and conveyed its concerns in a letter of protest.4 Decades down the line, while India’s policy orientation and broader claim on Gilgit Baltistan remains unchanged, its stance on Chinese investments in the Karakoram Highway, and Chinese efforts to leverage this territorial link to build a strategic corridor, is perceived to be weakening over time.

India’s Dilemma

Is it because of a realization that in a changed strategic landscape, the options for India vis-a-vis a project like CPEC are limited and complicated? Is India conflicted about whether to engage itself in the mega connectivity network project or stay out of it in accordance with its stated positon on Gilgit Baltistan and the so-called AJK? Participating in the project would require a major alteration in India’s policy. Overlooking the territorial dimension could be interpreted as a massive climb-down from its stated position. It may even be construed as acquiescing to the China-Pakistan alliance in the region and beyond. Thus, the CPEC poses a policy challenge to India on how best to strike a precarious balance between securing its strategic/territorial interests without at the same time being confrontational.

Be that as it may, India would need to take a clear positon on the CPEC sooner or later. Domestically, there has been, till now, no serious political or public debate on how India should approach the issue. In the absence of a rational public discourse, India is yet to articulate a clear stand or position on the CPEC. This is also owing to the fact that public debates in India on issues concerning China and Pakistan are often emotive and devoid of a rational evaluation of policy options. Charting a policy course is essential since China has, of late, through stray remarks extended an invitation for India to participate in the Silk Route ‘one route one belt’ project. The onus now lies on India to respond to such overtures. India has to take a call on whether it would like to be a party to the CPEC, sit on the fence, or convey its concerns more emphatically in a bid to discourage China.

CPEC may materialize despite scepticism

Ironically, in Pakistan itself, there is growing cynicism about the CPEC’s prospects and feasibility because of security-related concerns and inter-provincial political discord on route preferences. Nevertheless, given the Chinese determination to find a route to oil-rich West Asia through Pakistan, and the Pakistani desperation to provide every possible assurance to China about safeguarding its investments, the project is likely to be implemented, even if its scope may be limited. The Chinese decision to strike deals worth US$ 22 billion out of a total of $28 billion with private players rather than the Pakistan government has been touted as an indication of Chinese seriousness in investing in Pakistan. One has to remember that China and Pakistan have weathered geographical and logistical extremes in the past to build the highest metalled road on one of the toughest terrain, i.e. the Karakoram Highway. Moreover, the Pakistani decision to raise a special security division to protect Chinese workers and interests in Pakistan, consisting of 10,000 security personnel, including 5,000 from the elite special services group (SSG) of the Pakistan Army who are specially trained for counter-terrorism and security, indicates its resolve to implement the project in all earnestness.

While India’s overall stance on PoK remains understated, the commencement of the CPEC warrants more serious attention than what has been accorded so far. There is a need to carefully weigh the situation and devise a suitable and sustainable approach that could serve India’s long-term interests. It is imperative that some of the explicit strategic concerns regarding the CPEC figure in the bilateral round of talks during the Indian Prime Minister’s forthcoming visit to China.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2015 19:39

nitin gokhale ‏@nitingokhale 18m18 minutes ago >>

* India summons Chinese envoy to protest $46 billion economic corridor planned through Pak-Occupied Kashmir. (Sent via NDTV app)
* Don't take us for granted. So what if Modi is visiting China. New Delhi sends timely message to Beijing on China-Pak Eco Corridor thru PoK

Vishal Thapar ‏@thaparvishal 2h >>

* BREAKING: India protests against Sino-Pak pact to build pipelines & roads thru PoK. Demarche issued to Chinese envoy to India. 1/n
* India red flags Chinese pipelines,roads thru PoK, says this impinges on India's sovereignty & security.Indian envoy also protests in Beijing
* 3/4 China's $46b projects to connect Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to Xinjiang thru PoK becomes sore point ahead of @PMOIndia 's visit to China
* 4/4 Foreign Secretary Jaishankar tells me that India has taken up thru diplomatic channels the issue of Chinese pipelines, roads thru PoK

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 12 May 2015 20:38

pankajs wrote:nitin gokhale ‏@nitingokhale 18m18 minutes ago >>

* India summons Chinese envoy to protest $46 billion economic corridor planned through Pak-Occupied Kashmir. (Sent via NDTV app)
* Don't take us for granted. So what if Modi is visiting China. New Delhi sends timely message to Beijing on China-Pak Eco Corridor thru PoK

Vishal Thapar ‏@thaparvishal 2h >>

* BREAKING: India protests against Sino-Pak pact to build pipelines & roads thru PoK. Demarche issued to Chinese envoy to India. 1/n
* India red flags Chinese pipelines,roads thru PoK, says this impinges on India's sovereignty & security.Indian envoy also protests in Beijing
* 3/4 China's $46b projects to connect Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to Xinjiang thru PoK becomes sore point ahead of @PMOIndia 's visit to China
* 4/4 Foreign Secretary Jaishankar tells me that India has taken up thru diplomatic channels the issue of Chinese pipelines, roads thru PoK

Nothing will come of this. The only way to really raise the heat is to foment rebellion within Pakistan and take relations with Japan and Vietnam to a new level. This is the only language that the Chinese will understand.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 12 May 2015 20:48

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 46421.aspx

"Due to the Indian elites' blind arrogance and confidence in their democracy, and the inferiority of its ordinary people, very few Indians are able to treat Sino-Indian relations accurately, objectively and rationally," it said.

Truly the Chinese elites must be inferior in their thinking abilities with such reasoning.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2015 05:37

More whiny chini talk:
Chinese newspaper accuses Narendra Modi of ‘playing little tricks’

Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit here, a state-run newspaper today carried a highly critical article, accusing him of “playing little tricks” over the border dispute and security issues against China to boost his domestic prestige.

“Ever since Modi assumed office, he has taken the initiative to actively develop India’s relationships with Japan, the US, and European countries in no time, in order to promote the country’s poor infrastructure construction and economic development.

“But his diplomatic moves last year have proven that he is a pragmatist, rather than a visionary,” said the article ‘Can Modi’s visit upgrade Sino-Indian ties?’ by Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, published in the state-run Global Times.

Observers say the article in the newspaper, a sister publication of the ruling Communist Party of China, strikes a sour note ahead of Modi’s first visit here from May 14 to 16 after taking over as the Prime Minister.

Citing historical feud and mutual mistrust that stems from geopolitics, the article said the two sides have never established real strategic trust.

“Leaders from both China and India should not only strengthen mutual political trust, but also stick to a series of agreed principles and match their rhetoric with action,” it said.

“In light of this, Modi should no longer visit the disputed border region (Arunachal Pradesh) in pursuit of his own political interests, nor should he deliver any remarks that infringe on the consensus on bilateral ties,” it added.

“Meanwhile, the Indian government should completely stop supporting the Dalai Lama, and stop making the Tibetan issue a stumbling block to the Sino-Indian relationship.”
The paper is critical of Modi’s neighbourhood policy.

“Modi has been busy strengthening India’s ties with neighbouring countries to compete with China, while trying to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities for economic development created by China” with its Silk Road projects, it said ahead of Modi’s talks with the Chinese leadership.

“Modi has also been playing little tricks over border disputes and security issues, hoping to boost his domestic prestige while increasing his leverage in negotiations with China,” it added.

Good job from the Global Times for laying out all their concerns and therefore showing all their cards ahead of time. In the past, China would just offer pious advice haughtily. The angry tone suggests they feel seriously pushed into a corner.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2015 05:43

To avoid provoking China, India leaves Japan out of drill with US - Rajat Pandit, ToI

In the run-up to PM Narendra Modi's visit to China this week, India has studiously kept Japan out of the initial planning for the major Indo-US Malabar naval combat exercise to be held in the Bay of Bengal in October.

Sources on Tuesday said the groundwork being done by India and the US for the Malabar exercise "did not as yet include Japan" despite the two Modi-Obama summits in September and January agreeing to "upgrade" the annual combat manoeuvres.

"The next Malabar planning conference between India and the US is slated for July. Japan does not figure in the talks till now," said a defence ministry source. Instead, the India-Japan naval exercise Jimex, which was held for the first time in 2012, is being separately planned for November.

Both Washington and Tokyo are keen for Japan to join the top-rung exercise on a regular basis but India does not want to needlessly needle a prickly China, which sees any multi-lateral naval grouping in the region as a security axis seeking to contain it.

Modi may still well invite Japan for the forthcoming 19th edition of Malabar in the Bay of Bengal — which will see the US participating with Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyers and nuclear submarines — since he and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe have decided to take their military ties to the next level. "Moreover, India and the US have also committed to upgrading Malabar exercises," said the source.

But there are no such indications till now, with the NDA government continuing with the earlier UPA regime's policy to keep Japan out of the exercise when it is held on India's western or eastern seaboard. "While building stronger ties with all these countries on a bilateral basis, India will refrain from any security grouping or bloc that may be construed as anti-China," said another source.

Under the previous UPA regime, India had largely restricted the Malabar exercise to a bilateral one with the US after China protested against its 2007 edition in the Bay of Bengal especially since they were expanded to include the Japanese, Australian and Singaporean navies as well. Japan has been inducted into the exercise only when it has been held in the north-western Pacific like in 2009 and 2014.

India, the US and Japan are all wary about China's growing military capabilities and assertive behavior in the crucial Asia Pacific region, which has fast emerged as the region for geopolitical shadow-boxing. But while the US-Japan combine is quite overt over its apprehensions about China, India wants to be seen as a neutral player in the jostling.

The message from India seems to be clear. The ambivalence on the inclusion of Japan in Ex. Malabar has to be read in the context of Modi's desire to increase trade & Chinese participation in Indian infrastructure, India's objection to CPEC through POK, India's participation in AIIB as a founding member, India frequently expressing Freedom of Navigation in SCS, India's refusal to participate in MSR, India's strong displeasure on Chinese intrusions into Sri Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles etc.

The message is that India is concerned about India's self interests. It would not join a containment block just for the sake of doing so. India has complete control over its strategic autonomy and acts accordingly. Indian foreign policy has changed from being an 'idealist' one to being a 'realist' one and based on reciprocity. Militarily, we had demonstrated our changed stance as far back as 1967 at Nathu La and in 1986-87 at Sumdorong Chu and repeatedly over the PLA incursions thereafter.

China, in its geopolitical strategy or arrogance, may choose to ignore this signalling. But, with its economy now moving into doldrums, it may not want to do so.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 May 2015 06:31

You missed one point though. NaMo expressed his disappointment with Japan for not signing Nuclear deal with India in a passing reference while discussing India Canada Nuclear deal and hoped that Japan would eventually.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 May 2015 06:59

chaanakya wrote:You missed one point though. NaMo expressed his disappointment with Japan for not signing Nuclear deal with India in a passing reference while discussing India Canada Nuclear deal and hoped that Japan would eventually.

With new prospect of Areva Tech transfer to Indian company, Nuke deal with Japanese is not as valuable now as it was last year. SOKO and France is all that India need in Nuke field.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 13 May 2015 07:12

It might be an idea to commence a positive news from China thread. Even though these superior breeds have a culture of censorship, there is more than enough sh!t available in public sources to besmirch the fair face of China by flinging said sh!t in a heavenly direction.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2015 07:22

Ahead of PM’s visit, India-China irritants to the fore - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

India has lodged a protest against China’s announcement of infrastructure projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar said on Tuesday. Although Mr. Jaishankar did not say when the protest was made, he said the External Affairs Ministry had spoken to Chinese Ambassador Le Yucheng in Delhi, and India’s Ambassador to Beijing Ashok Kantha had indicated India’s upset to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs there. {One hopes that there is a strong written protest rather than a verbal one}

This is the first time the government has announced publicly that it had reacted to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Pakistan visit on April 20, where he had announced a $46-billion package to construct infrastructure, including highways and hydel power projects along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through PoK to the Gwadar port in Balochistan.

In reply to a Parliament question on May 6, Minister of State V.K. Singh had only said that the “government keeps a constant watch on all developments having a bearing on India’s security and takes all necessary measures to safeguard it.”

The Foreign Secretary’s comments came on a day when China’s Global Times newspaper, said to be allied to the Communist Party, published a scathing editorial ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit entitled, “Can Modi’s visit upgrade Sino-Indian ties?”, accusing the government of playing “little tricks” on the border dispute, and criticising the Prime Minister’s visits to Arunachal Pradesh, that China claims, and calling on India to “stop all support to the Dalai Lama.”

Signing of pacts

While the government took no notice of the editorial, the remarks in Delhi and Beijing indicate that irritants in bilateral ties are being aired just ahead of Mr. Modi’s three-day visit to China, when he is expected to sign a number of agreements.

He will also be given a warm welcome by Mr. Xi who will travel to meet Mr. Modi in his native town of Xian on May 14, which is a rare break from precedent for Chinese leaders, and comes as a reciprocal gesture for Mr. Modi’s reception in Ahmedabad for the President and his wife last September.

Officials did not confirm the exact number and nature of bilateral agreements that will be signed in Beijing on May 15, but they are expected to include Chinese investment for railway projects and a railway academy in India, maritime research cooperation and one on sharing data on transboundary rivers.

Extension of e-visa

India could also announce the extension of e-visa to China, a long-standing demand from the Chinese government, and the Home Affairs and External Affairs Ministries have been meeting for the past few weeks on liberalising the visa and security restrictions imposed on Chinese nationals. Two Chief Ministers, Gujarat’s Anandiben Patel and Maharashtra’s Devendra Fadnavis, will accompany the Prime Minister for a conference of State and Provincial heads, to discuss enhancing trade and cooperation with Chinese provinces.

Mr. Jaishankar said the resolution of the border issue was “bound to be discussed” when the two leaders met, with some indications from different sources that they could consider upgrading border communication and infrastructure to enhance the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement that was last upgraded in September 2013. In remarks, both countries signalled a softened approach, following the meeting of Special Representatives, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and State Councillor Yang Jiechi, in February. The leaders indicated a determination to put behind the Chumar incident of alleged {One can understand the Chinese calling the incursion 'alleged', but, why should an Indian do so?} violations by the PLA into India during Mr. Xi’s visit to India last year that had significantly dented the visit’s atmosphere.

‘Difficult’ part of ties

In an interview to the India Today weekly, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the boundary question was a “difficult” part of relations, but to “settle the question as early as possible was the historical responsibility that falls on both governments; it also represents the shared aspiration of the two peoples.”

Interacting with Chinese journalists on Tuesday, Mr. Modi highlighted the “strong potential” of India-China relations. “Asia, being the land of Buddha, has the responsibility to ensure that this is a century free from war,” the Prime Minister, who has already set up a special page on his visit to China, wrote in a tweet and on his new social networking Sina Weibo account.

Mr. Modi will address the Indian community in Shanghai on May 16.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2015 07:23

sanjaykumar wrote:It might be an idea to commence a positive news from China [thread]. Even though these superior breeds have a culture of censorship, there is more than enough sh!t available in public sources to besmirch the fair face of China by flinging said sh!t in a heavenly direction.

I welcome that. Can somebody take it up?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2015 17:37

India’s nukes driving China’s n-modernisation: US - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

India’s nuclear weapons force is one of the drivers for continued Chinese nuclear force modernisation, the U.S. Department of Defence said in its annual China report, “Military and Security developments involving People’s Republic of China,” submitted to the U.S. Congress last week.

The report states that a new generation of mobile missiles with multiple warheads are intended to ensure viability of China’s strategic deterrent in the face of continued advances in the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, Russian precision strike and missile defence capabilities.

“Similarly, India’s nuclear force is an additional driver behind China’s nuclear force modernisation,” it added. The report noted “some ambiguity” in China’s stated “no first use” (NFU) policy over the conditions under which the policy would apply.

Border tensions

China continues to pursue a “long-term, comprehensive military modernisation programme designed to improve its armed forces’ capacity to fight short-duration, high-intensity regional conflicts,” the report observed and referred to the contained tensions on the India-China border, “despite increases in China-India political and economic relations.” The report noted that, “Pakistan remains China’s primary customer for conventional weapons.”

The report also takes note of the growing Chinese maritime capabilities to operate far from mainland referring to the recent deployment of nuclear powered submarines in the Indian Ocean “ostensibly” in support of its counter-piracy patrols and “demonstrating an emerging capability both to protect China’s sea lines of communications and increase China’s power projection into the Indian Ocean.”

The huge difference in defence spending also found a mention in the report. While China’s defence budget of $165 billion for 2014 grew at an average of 9.5 per cent over the past decade, India’s budget currently stands at $38 billion.

Modi’s visit

The timing of the report coincides with the upcoming visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China, which has raised expectations of a positive outcome on the contentious border issue. China on Monday expressed “strong opposition” to the U.S. report, which, it said ignores facts, makes speculation and continues to play up the “so-called China threat” and urged the U.S. to abandon its “Cold War mentality.”

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2015 17:56

U.S. may dispatch planes, ships near disputed South China Sea islands

The Pentagon is considering sending U.S. military aircraft and ships to assert freedom of navigation around rapidly growing Chinese-made artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea, a U.S. official said Tuesday.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2015 17:59

Japan, Philippines hold historic naval drill - Japan Times

Two Japanese destroyers and one of the Philippines’ newest warships began historic naval exercises in the flash point South China Sea on Tuesday, showcasing a deepening alliance aimed at countering a rising China.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 13 May 2015 18:17

Bade wrote:http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 46421.aspx
"Due to the Indian elites' blind arrogance and confidence in their democracy, and the inferiority of its ordinary people, very few Indians are able to treat Sino-Indian relations accurately, objectively and rationally," it said.
Truly the Chinese elites must be inferior in their thinking abilities with such reasoning.

I was trying to understand this complex argument,but you beat me.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2015 22:07

R Jaggi writes a masterpiece:
Modi should pack Sun Tzu's 'Art of War' for inflight reading on his way to China

When it comes to China, it is best for India to think along parallel tracks: the economic relationship, the cultural linkages, and the border standoff have to be dealt with separately, even though they may be interlinked.

This is what Narendra Modi should keep in mind as he begins what promises to be the most important visit by an Indian Prime Minister to its most important neighbour: China.

To come back with some diplomatic or economic gains, Modi needs to understand three things: first, how China thinks; second, how it is executing its strategy for Asian dominance; and three, how it sees India and how we see it. And yes, Modi’s in-flight reading en route to China should include a copy of Sun Tzu’s classic, The Art of War. The Chinese leadership knows this text by heart.

First, Chinese power has historically been focused on creating a cohesive society internally, through constant and brutal internal warfare. China has seldom sought territorial conquests outside during its five thousand year history. China considers itself culturally superior to the rest of the world, and believes the world should pay obeisance to its power and cultural refinement. “All under Heaven” was the mandate the Chinese gave their emperors. It did not change under Mao’s Communist dicatorship or Deng’s authoritarian capitalism that China adopted after Mao. China seeks formal recognition by the world, and India, of its superiority, culturally or otherwise. India poses a threat to its cultural superiority, if not economically or politically.

Second, China projects power more or less the way Sun Tzu, a second century BCE Chinese military strategist, taught it. The key elements of Sun Tzu strategy are deception and the consistent building of one strengths clandestinely. Sun Tzu advocated intimidating and overwhelming the enemy without war. China fights a war rarely, and then too only if it thinks it can win overwhelmingly. The key Sun Tzu precepts to note are the following quotes from his book:

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” And
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

To counter China, India needs to understand when China is bluffing, and when it is genuinely capable of going to war over an issue.

In 1962, China went to war by fooling Nehru into believing the border issue was a small thing, when it was actually a big deal for China, which had just invaded and taken over Tibet. Even as it prepared for war, it lulled Nehru into believing it was all for peace. Little wonder we lost 1962.

Since the 1980s, China has been building its economic and military might slowly, but consistently. When Communist Soviet Union appeared to be a threat, it used the US as counter-weight to show strength to the enemy. After Mao, Deng realised that military might could not be sustained without economic might. China built the most powerful manufacturing capability over the next 20 years and became factory to the world. The world woke up too late to the Chinese threat.

Having achieved economic and military might next only to the US, China is now implementing the second of Sun Tzu’s maxims: subduing the enemy (or enemies) without fighting. It yanked Hong Kong out of Britain’s grasp without a fight. It has embraced Taiwan in an economic partnership where the latter ultimately has to succumb to a Hong Kong-like solution and Chinese takeover. The west will not fight over Taiwan. China has also enticed the rest of Asia with economic partnerships – and neutralised them. It is now trying to browbeat Japan and India to yield on its territorial claims by a show of high belligerence.

China is unlikely to go to war or push its luck too far on these issues, but only if both Japan and India play their cards right. We should not only build an alliance, but also beef up our economies and military might even while talking trade and culture with the Chinese. These parallel tracks are key to containing China. When they see strength, they back off.

This is what we can learn from Sun Tzu: “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

Right now, both India and Japan are relatively weak vis-à-vis China. This is, therefore, a very good reason to appear strong and economically and politically aligned.

China is doing the same to us with its string-of-pearls alliances in the Indian Ocean. From Sri Lanka to Bangladesh to Nepal and, most certainly, Pakistan, China is trying to tell us it has us surrounded. Resistance to its geopolitical aims is pointless.

We have to stare back, and silently keep building our military strengths and alliances. We don’t need to provoke, but frequent trips to the north-east, regular consultations with the Dalai Lama on Tibetan concerns, and strategic conferences with the US, Japan, and Vietnam are vital to doing a Sun Tzu on China.

On trade, too, China currently holds the high cards – seemingly. In 2014-15, says Mint quoting the Confederation of Indian Industry, India imported $45 billion more from China than what we exported. Our manufacturing has hollowed out due to China.

Modi needs to tell China that this is unsustainable. China has to buy more from India, or allow its currency to appreciate significantly against the rupee. There is need for a direct rupee-yuan currency market that is not intermediated by the US dollar.

We could also throw hints that lucrative infrastructure projects could be offered to China if it is more reasonable on trade balance.

We can bring up the issue of Chinese dams on the Brahmaputra – and throw in the possibility of international arbitration for disputes in the area. China won’t accept, but we should bring it up nevertheless.

We should also whisper in Chinese ears about Islamic terrorism emanating from Pakistan. The Chinese know all about it, but there is no reason why we should not fan their fears relentlessly and give them unsolicited intelligence on what we know about the jihadi terror.

What we should never do is bring up the border issue or its alliance with Pakistan every time we meet up. Our interests are best served by indicating that we can defend ourselves. Bringing up the border repeatedly makes China feel that its actions on the border are rattling us. They are long-term players, and they are looking for signs that we are desperate for a settlement. We should never be desperate for a settlement of the border issue. We should be willing to wait till kingdom come. In fact, Modi should surprise China by never bringing up the border. If they want to, they can.

We also need to understand China’s real interests: they definitely want Tawang, the birthplace of the Dalai Lama, and probably not the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, which they call lower Tibet. But they will never tell us this. They are desperate to end Tibetan resistance to Han Chinese rule by taking all the Tibetan holy places and ensuring that the next Dalai Lama is under Chinese control. We should never support such a move – and must make it clear in closed-door meetings that India will never recognise a China-appointed Dalai Lama.

Unlike Pakistan, where our relationship is blighted by that country’s unremitting hatred of India (at least, as far as the Pakistani army is concerned), in China’s case the underlying cause of tension is not innate hostility (despite our humiliating defeat in the 1962 war), but the long-term power asymmetry that has gone unaddressed.

This asymmetry is what China wants to retain, and which Modi needs to correct. This correction is what China wants India to be deflected from through belligerent action.

When you are perceived as weak, bullies will try and intimidate you. And China is nothing if not a bully. This is what explains Chinese border incursions last September, just when President Xi Jinping paid a visit to India after Modi took over as PM; this is what is at play even now, as China’s official media keeps up a high-decibel anti-India chant, whether by warning him against visiting the north-east, and especially Arunachal Pradesh, or by alleging Modi is “playing little tricks” on the border.

This is typical Chinese strategy – to keep the other side off-balance by constantly trying to unsettle it with pinpricks or intimidation even while officially talking peace and good neighbourliness.

Last September, Modi appeared irritated that Xi’s visit was timed with a border incursion in the Chumar sector of Ladakh. He noted: "Yeh chhoti chhoti ghatnayen bade se bade sambandhon ko prabhavit kar deti hain. Agar daant ka dard ho to saara sharir kaam nahin karta hai”, The Times of India quoted Modi as telling Xi.

However, this time the government’s response seems to have been different. Even as the Chinese media upped the ante on Modi’s “little tricks”, the Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar ticked off the Chinese by protesting against their proposed investment in infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and Modi himself met legislators from the north-east, including Arunachal Pradesh, to send a simple message to Beijing: two can play the game. Even as this shadow-boxing was on, Modi talked peace and poverty eradication as a joint India-China responsibility.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 May 2015 09:04

Definitely a masterpiece, thanks for sharing, Suraj saar.

member_27845 · Post by **member_27845** » 14 May 2015 09:12

I just hope our border forces are on full alert

These jokers try to pull a stunt every time there is a bilateral visit ( from either side )

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 14 May 2015 10:24

Suraj wrote:R Jaggi writes a masterpiece:
Modi should pack Sun Tzu's 'Art of War' for inflight reading on his way to China

Perhaps Panchatantra is a better inflight read! Comes with pictures.

First, Chinese power has historically been focused on creating a cohesive society internally, through constant and brutal internal warfare.

Second, China projects power... deception and the consistent building of one strengths clandestinely.

To counter China, India needs to understand when China is bluffing, and when it is genuinely capable of going to war over an issue.

Right now, both India and Japan are relatively weak vis-à-vis China. This is, therefore, a very good reason to appear strong and economically and politically aligned.

Better than most analysts, but the key remains - what is India's end goal?
It should be peach, security, balanced trade and moderated approach to influencing each others chamchas.
He clearly articulates an end goal for China, but then quickly slips into tactical prescriptions for India along above lines...
China will induce the grand strategy of India this century - no choice but to be frenemies.

Here is wishing Mr. Modi well and good luck on his three country visit -
On your return, please stop by in Arunachal Pradesh before your final destination in New Delhi.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 May 2015 16:41

Cultural parks planned to lift Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai spirit - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China and India are establishing two sister cultural parks — in Beijing and Bengaluru — to boost the soft power content in, and impart a holistic dimension to, a rapidly evolving relationship.

Dana Schuppert, founder of the Beijing-based 21st Century China India Centre for Culture and Communication, is the driving force behind the initiative. Fully backed by the Chinese government, the concept of setting up large-scale cultural hubs flows from the Joint Statement signed during President Xi Jinping’s visit to India last September.

“My point was, if we can have big industrial parks, why not also establish large cultural and educational parks,” said Dr. Schuppert during an exclusive interview with The Hindu. She said Buddhist studies would be part of the curriculum at the park at Beijing Normal University. “Land has already been allocated at Beijing Normal University. An Indian hotel and a convention centre would be established, within a zone where knowledge of Sanskrit, Ayurveda, Vivekananda and Yoga would be imparted.”

At the Bengaluru centre, a railway college will be set up.

She stressed that Mr. Modi’s arrival was perfectly timed as the Chinese leadership had taken a “strategic decision” to transform its relationship with India. “It is indeed a transformational moment. I can only say time and again that President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang are committed to improving the China-India relations. It is evident in the article that President Xi wrote in The Hindu that it would be his historical contribution to improve the quality of the relations between India and China.”

Dr. Schuppert is confident that the decision of the External Affairs Ministry to reinforce Buddhism as part of its foreign policy toolkit would yield tangible results. “I think this is for the first time that something like this is happening. It sends a fantastic signal,” she said.

Having observed China’s remarkable turnaround up-close during the 23 years that she has lived in the country, Dr. Schuppert has little doubt that the Chinese leadership would be able to achieve a seamless synthesis of Marxism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Taoism {Oh, another incarnation of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai. Only, this time the Chinese are employing a Western woman to fool us}.

Asked to comment on the status of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor, Dr. Schuppert said the project was still at a “study stage”.

“There is really no one to push it in the right way and make a reality out of it. Without wanting to generfool usalise, I can say time and again that follow-up, feedback, check-and-balance mechanisms in a continuous regular way are the keys to turn these wonderful ideas into reality.”

Apart from Yunnan, which is the starting point of the BCIM, closer ties between Chengdu — already declared a sister city of Bengaluru — and India should be established at the earliest.

“We created the China-India forum with the support of the Chengdu government. Chengdu is one of the centres of the future, and the government there has a very entrepreneurial attitude, which is evident from the annual presence there of the world’s Fortune 500 companies for three years in a row.”

Who is this Dana Schuppert and how is she getting a backing from the two governments ? Is this a private affair or a government funded programme? What is this Railway College and what are the Chinese going to teach and in which language? How is she able to speak so authoritatively on behalf of the Chinese government on various projects or what is running in the minds of Xi & Li?

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 14 May 2015 17:39

SSji,
Dr.Dana Schuppert seems to be a German national living in China for several years and is the Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of Strategic European Investment Management Ltd. Her interests seems to be mainly economic along with some fascination for Chinese culture.

Interestingly, she also seems to play the role of a corporate liaison or lobbyist and makes her services available to multitple MNCs. She is also Senior Strategic Advisor and Envoy for Special Projects for the Tata Group helping Tata group expand its hotel business in China!

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Indust ... 443486.ece

While Dr.Schuppert's interests might be predominantly economic, we need to watch out for Cheen intelligence / PLA infiltrating these projects that may have some soft or hard strategic import. For example, a Railway college may focus more on technological underpinnings that derive from Chinese railway experience with some indoctrination of technical accomplishments and advancements of Cheen railway industry. The graduates of such a college naturally may prefer Chinese materials and engines than say that of France or Japan. Currently China has very little soft power over India and this might be an attempt at changing it. They may find in Dr. Schuppert a useful tool and it benefits her economically as well. I hope we are also deriving equal benefit.

While preaching yoga, Sanskrit, Vivekananda or Sri Aurobindo to Chinese will have some scholars interested in Indian philosophy, we should also focus on projects that provide economic opportunity to us. I am impressed by how Chinese managed to sneak in a railway college into a cultural city project, given the importance given to railway infrastructure projects by current government. Chinese are not so keen on exporting philosophy of Confucius or Taoism.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 May 2015 17:47

schinnas, thanks for the input on Ms. Dana. Westerners infiltrate everywhere somehow.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 May 2015 19:44

Yes, we need to learn how to run railways from the Chinese. Our IR carries its 24 million pax per day by its own initiative, not because we run it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 May 2015 20:44

PRC has been interested in Bengluru since quite a few years. Jiang Xemin visited Bengluru first and then New Delhi.. So am not surprised.

My only question is why railway college when cultural studies are being fostered by India in the Beijing center.

BTW all this sole concentration on Beijing for everything, reminds one of Hegel's comment about China being a nation looking for a state.

When one has Brishapati, Shukraneeti, Chanakya(Arthasastra) and Vishnu sarma(Panchatantra) why go for Sun Tzu?
R. Jaggi should start wearing Chinese coat!

The BCIM Economic Corridor is a must for transforming China where the western regions are underdeveloped since Emperor Chin's time.

Despite the Chinese state early origins being from Western China!!!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 May 2015 23:04

Pulikeshi wrote:Better than most analysts, but the key remains - what is India's end goal?
It should be peach, security, balanced trade and moderated approach to influencing each others chamchas.
He clearly articulates an end goal for China, but then quickly slips into tactical prescriptions for India along above lines...
China will induce the grand strategy of India this century - no choice but to be frenemies.

Here is wishing Mr. Modi well and good luck on his three country visit -
On your return, please stop by in Arunachal Pradesh before your final destination in New Delhi.

While he may not prescribe any sort of grand strategy, Jagannathan provides a meaningful explanation of Chinese thought process and statescraft. That in itself is without a lot of precedent in the Indian mainstream press, which usually ranges between obsequious drivel and bewildered beaten wife whinyness . Just for that level of cold analysis, he deserves praise.

Another important aspect is that Modi tagged on a visit to both Mongolia and SoKo on this trip. From an optics perspective, that's usually a no no for China . They demand exclusivity. If Modi really sought to rile them, he could add a short post Beijing stop in Tokyo as well.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 14 May 2015 23:12

Pulikeshi wrote: Better than most analysts, but the key remains - what is India's end goal?
It should be peach, security, balanced trade and moderated approach to influencing each others chamchas.
He clearly articulates an end goal for China, but then quickly slips into tactical prescriptions for India along above lines...
China will induce the grand strategy of India this century - no choice but to be frenemies.

Here is wishing Mr. Modi well and good luck on his three country visit -
On your return, please stop by in Arunachal Pradesh before your final destination in New Delhi.

+1.

Grand strategy of India cant be proclaimed and discussed publicly because that road has to be built on the grave of Secularism. That's why Jaggis of India cant/wont articulate that.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 14 May 2015 23:44

Bade wrote:http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 46421.aspx
"Due to the Indian elites' blind arrogance and confidence in their democracy, and the inferiority of its ordinary people, very few Indians are able to treat Sino-Indian relations accurately, objectively and rationally," it said.

Time and again megalomaniac regimes commit this mistake of terming entire set of peoples inferior. Usually the end comes with bitter bloodshed, similar statements were made by Nazis. I hope better sense prevails in China.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 14 May 2015 23:54

Most ordinary chinese believe Chinese to be a superior race (similar to Nazis). One of my Chinese colleague once argued that they were more evolved of all races because they have least bodily hair. In his mind, those with most bodily hair are more closer to monkeys! This person has worked in US for over 15 years at that time he made that statement.

He quieted down only when an aghast colleague (also a Chinese) asked him whether he considers women to be more evolved than men because they have less facial hair!

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 15 May 2015 06:09

Suraj wrote: Another important aspect is that Modi tagged on a visit to both Mongolia and SoKo on this trip. From an optics perspective, that's usually a no no for China . They demand exclusivity. If Modi really sought to rile them, he could add a short post Beijing stop in Tokyo as well.

+1½

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 15 May 2015 06:12

RamaY wrote: Grand strategy of India cant be proclaimed and discussed publicly because that road has to be built on the grave of Secularism. That's why Jaggis of India cant/wont articulate that.

Why bring an internal matter on a Foreign Policy issue? Feels like a self goal.
Please don't bother refuting me - I am sure we will not agree on the outcome, even if we find similarity in analysis.

In this case - only thing that matter is -
Given Sun Zhu's dictum will China (powerful as it is) appear weak and give concessions to
India (obviously SDRE, inferior race, tricksters (baniya), chankiayans) to establish her strength

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 15 May 2015 06:33

One of my Chinese colleague once argued that they were more evolved of all races because they have least bodily hair.

Blacks also have little body hair. They are also endowed with the largest penis size relative to body of all primates. Unlike Chinese who have penis/body size ratio similar to simians.

Perhaps they are most highly evolved.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 May 2015 08:30

India keen on Chinese knowhow - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit on Thursday to the Wild Goose Pagoda, the emblem of China’s umbilical ties with India, set the tone for Mr. Modi’s talks with President Xi Jinping later.

Highly placed sources told The Hindu , that both countries are committed to ensure that the borders remain calm, and China-Indian ties on the economic and geopolitical tracks are not sidetracked. The sources said that Indian and Chinese local commanders will soon be able to have a dialogue with each other at Kibithu, in the eastern sector. Political clearance has also been obtained for a hotline between the two army headquarters.

But the Indian side is looking for a deeper collaboration in infrastructure development especially railways. The feasibility study on the Delhi-Chennai high-speed has commenced, but a big ticket announcement on possible Chinese participation on this project is still far away.

Skill development

“We are looking for Chinese support on skill development, either in railways or training of Indian workers who can then have the know-how to handle the state-of-of the art equipment that would be used within the Make-in-India framework,” said a diplomat.

India is also looking for a major Chinese contribution in clean energy, to help fulfil the target of 100,000 MW of renewable energy by 2022.

The sources said China and India are still not on the same page on Beijing’s “belt and road” initiative to integrate the economics of Eurasia.

Specific projects

As of now India is ready to work with China on specific projects within the “road and belt” framework including the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor. The two countries are also aligned on creating a new global financial architecture, manifested by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which is expected to contribute to the development of infrastructure in Asia.

The Chinese are also the key players in the development of the proposed bank steered by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which India is expected to join later this year.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 May 2015 09:21

What we are seeing is a tussle between US and PRC to woo India which has surprisingly risen despite all the dis-incentives left by Anglo-Saxons.

the pivot to Asia by US is to remain relevant in world politics.
two world wars, Cold war and West Asia imbroglio has sapped the West.

US is egging a China-India confrontation for their pivot.

yet US has understanding with PRC about its place in world.

NRI deluded think tankers are pushing this pivot nonsense.
You see them on social media hyping every little step taken by India to correct the big gap in military and economic areas despite a retarded political elite.

the short answer is the simplicity imposed by post world war international order is being used to keep India down.

So the answer is bring in complexity and resulting chaos to thrive.