Indian Railways Thread

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 17 May 2015 23:59

Most of the people I know (including the IT-Vity folks and ladies log) do not even take the trains between CHN-BLR and instead prefer the bus as it is way cheaper. Who is going to pay for a CHN-BLR HSR price to cover the same distance in 2 hours when the prevailing thought process is that it is a single night journey anyway?

I am not talking about the exception cases here. How is the HSR useful if it serves so few?

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 18 May 2015 04:30

Picklu wrote:Most of the people I know (including the IT-Vity folks and ladies log) do not even take the trains between CHN-BLR and instead prefer the bus as it is way cheaper. Who is going to pay for a CHN-BLR HSR price to cover the same distance in 2 hours when the prevailing thought process is that it is a single night journey anyway?

I am not talking about the exception cases here. How is the HSR useful if it serves so few?

Wiki says the BLR-Chennai train distance is 362 KM. The route seems to go through a lot of extra distance, possibly due to terrain. A dedicated HSR track along a straighter route and train set on par with the current Shanghai-Beijing line will allow people to go P2P in 1 hour. When you are able to cut the travel time to 1/6th or 1/4th from the current trains, it will generate demand.

The goal is NOT to convert bus traffic into train traffic (although that too will happen to some extent). It is to convert flight traffic into train traffic. So, HSR fares should be lower than flights. They do not have to be on par with buses.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 May 2015 05:17

The HSR line could run parallel to the proposed Chennai Bangalore Expressway.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 May 2015 06:08

All HSR is financial un-viable in India at present. Saar's we can not even raise the railway ticket 10% without hungama.... .. if one gets into financial discussions the entire thing is doomed. Even the Metros' IIRC are touch and go on break even, forget profit.

I think even the Mumbai-Ahmedabad one is financially a non starter. The numbers are very much against HSR. If HSR should be done it should be done for non-financial reasons...

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 18 May 2015 08:08

Well even the DC metro is broke and is looking for monies from the govt. This after 30 yrs of running and relatively good patronage. The viability has to take into consideration not just profit-loss but also the larger impact and economics that it drives for its users and the region.

The case is similar for HSR too, the simple comfort itself will attract more tourist patronage in the long run. We often talk of lack of good infra to attract tourists. Ease of travel to and from remote places is a key factor. We need to at least connect our major metros with a clean and fast service. Then work in parallel for the last mile connectivity to places of interest. This will go a long way in itself.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 May 2015 09:36

I don't disagree.

Whether one builds Chennai-Delhi or Chennai-Bengluru one is going to lose money. So why bother with financial discussions. There is no financial argument here. When we have the resources a full integrated system needs to be built with non-stops between all points. No doubts about it. The benefits to the nation will be immense. But DFC first please. much better bang for buck and will actually make money.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 18 May 2015 09:47

Yes, DFC should be a bigger priority. That itself is going to free up existing capacity on trunk routes and allow implementation of higher speeds. Along with quadrupling the existing system can work towards benefiting more people than HSR - the aam admi.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 18 May 2015 19:22

x-post

Supratik wrote:Apparently Babul Supriyo the BJP MP and MOS from WB has managed to convince Mamata to remove the slumdwellers (TMC vote bank) obstructing EW metro. Metro expected to be operational by 2017-2018. Mamata had blocked all the metro projects in Kolkata after she became CM. Supriyo is a very articulate orator in Bengali, Hindi and English. I think he has future potential.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 18 May 2015 20:51

Finally good sense has prevailed and they are going to drop the PPP model. It would have resulted in just real estate scams and politicos dipping their hands in the cookie jar through their proxies for commissions. The wise old man E Sreedharan has won again.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/new ... 219329.ece

This put paid to the long-drawn controversy and heated public discussions over the choice of implementation model for which the state bureaucracy had insisted on the PPP mode.

In doing so, it had cited the apparent inability of the state to take up implementation of such a large project at a time when its finances are in poor shape.

Speaking to newspersons after a meeting with Sreedharan a short while ago, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy said that the state and central governments would equally contribute 40 per cent of the project costs.

JICA LOAN

The rest of the funds (less land costs and taxation) will be raised through a JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) loan bearing 0.5 per cent interest.

In this manner, the burden on the state will be comparatively less, the Chief Minister said citing Sreedharan's assurance in this connection.

The decision will now be referred to the state cabinet for approval. It comes on a day when the Chandy government has completed four years in office and is stepping into the fifth and last.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 May 2015 23:10

^^^^^
If they do a light metro they will come to regret it. Light metro is slower and less capacity for pretty much the same upfront cost. Same reason mono-rail keeps getting shot down. The real problem they will ahve is getting people to buy tickets. No freebies please....

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 18 May 2015 23:18

Even Kolkata metro has run with no freebies for decades now. So where does that question even arise.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 May 2015 23:26

Have you been following the NH-47 story....

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 18 May 2015 23:27

No not recently... why ?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 May 2015 23:50

Several groups agitated and got free passes which depressed toll collection. So companies are reluctant to use the toll collection model.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 18 May 2015 23:54

^^ Such things have happened elsewhere too like with NH-7 in Bengaluru near the airport when they smashed up the toll booths and it was suspended for a few months till completion of the entire expressway as I recall.

I have traveled on NH-47 two years back all the way from Trichur town to Kochi and had to pay toll. Did something change recently ? My recent trip few months back did not venture out since it was a pit stop in KL both TVM and Kochi. The metro construction activity just made it look like B'lur

all torn apart.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 19 May 2015 00:00

This is new. So there is some progress in that stretch. Most toll issue related news items are from 2011-2012 period. Dileep used to comment on those in the roads thread.

With widening of the Palakkad-Walayar stretch of NH-47 nearing completion, a toll plaza has come up near Walayar to collect fee from vehicle users after full commissioning of the road. The stretch promises hassle-free driving, though the highway is in bad shape between Coimbatore and Walayar. A scene from the Pampampallam toll plaza on Monday.— Photo: K.K. Mustafah

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp ... 100572.ece

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 19 May 2015 18:45

Kolkata metro is subsidized by IR and is a loss-making venture.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 19 May 2015 22:10

Railway's April freight earnings up by over 17 per cent from last year

NEW DELHI: Railways earned Rs 9,461.47 crore from freight transportation in April of this year as compared to Rs 8,071.18 crore during the same period in 2014, an increase of 17.23 per cent.

The freight earnings for last month were made up of Rs 4,623.77 crore through transportation of 46.07 million tonnes (MT) of coal, Rs 573.12 crore from ferrying 8.99 MT of iron ore for exports, steel plants and other domestic users and Rs 872.99 crore generated by way of carrying 9.38 MT of cement, said Railway Ministry data.

The national transporter also earned Rs 570.17 crore from carrying 3.28 MT of foodgrains, Rs 502.08 crore from 3.47 MT of petroleum, oil and lubricants (POL), Rs 554.51 crore from 3.35 MT of pig iron and finished steel from steel plants and other points, Rs 475.05 crore from 3.43 MT of fertilisers, Rs 178.65 crore from 1.64 MT of raw materials for steel plants except iron ore, Rs 445.84 crore from 3.72 MT via container service and Rs 665.29 crore from 6.48 MT of other goods.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 20 May 2015 12:37

More on DFC progress

http://www.railnews.co.in/will-start-co ... -mddfccil/

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 May 2015 14:46

Theo_Fidel wrote:Several groups agitated and got free passes which depressed toll collection. So companies are reluctant to use the toll collection model.

PPP model for Roads and Bridges in Kerala is a failure. Long back I was a facilitates for Roads and Bridges Corporation of Kerala and they were not in a position to service their debt.

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 20 May 2015 21:48

It would be better to redefine PPP as "Government owns the land and leases it out to the private party who builds and maintains the infrastructure and operations". Getting baboos anywhere close to operations is a no-no.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 01:58

Suresh Prabhu has a goldmine in his kitty that could be worth more than Flipkart - R Jaggi, Firstpost

He argues that IRCTC could grow into a much larger business that what it currently is with the right (dis?)investment and be a regular source of revenue to the railways.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 19:29

arshyam wrote:Personally, I would like to see the Delhi-Chennai project as proposed to be implemented by the Chinese to not fructify. It is too valuable a project to give to the Chinese, with their still new HSR tech. Plus, they only use such proposals from us to shower Pakistan with $46B in investments - why do we even do this? Finally, Chinese tech may not really sell, I was talking to a few relatives about this, and they said they will not set foot on such a train made in China

In fact, I think instead of focussing on a few showcase HSR projects, the Modi govt should focus on improving IR's average speeds and relieve congestion. We cannot have a situation where a few people whiz along at 250kmph, while the rest of the country trundles along slower than what their ancestors did 50 years ago, when IR tracks were less congested.

This is not to say India should not build HSR, but we should think far ahead in the future and look build a network of HSR, not isolated lines built by different providers to different specs. We can start doing some feasibility studies and start acquiring some land, but start building after 10 years when the economy is in a better shape and can support it.

I will post a detailed write up on this over the weekend.

(Replying to my old post in order to set the right context)

Finally finished writing the so-called detailed write up I had promised. It turned out to be longer than I expected

, so please bear with me. In the next 4-5 posts, I will detail my thoughts on what should be the near-term priority for rail infrastructure in India, and why we should not build HSR yet. Please do give feedback on what you think.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 19:30

Rail infrastructure and HSR in India – a perspective

[Part I]

The GoI has announced a plan to build high speed rail (HSR) throughout India, with Japan and China taking the lead in feasibility studies for Mumbai-Ahmedabad and Chennai-Delhi respectively. Other routes such as Delhi-Jaipur, Chennai-Bangalore, Chennai-Hyderabad, etc. are also planned. The question is, is HSR needed for India, and needed now?

I am arguing that HSR is needed for India, but not at the current juncture. The cost of building such infrastructure and the resultant fare structure will not be supported by our current economy and will only cater to a few passengers who could afford the costs. More importantly, such expensive projects will divert much-needed funds from improving the overall IR network and keep it chugging at speeds not much higher from the pre-independence days.

To address the diversion of funds issue, the GoI has proposed 100% FDI in Railways, so as to build HSR with funds being pumped in from outside. The problem with this approach is that the investors will have little incentive transfer technology and will be more interested in retaining their IP, and keeping us dependent on them for future routes and not enabling us to find our own way in building these systems. Mandating ToT as offsets don't work well in practice given our experience in defence offsets, and given India's large need for railway infra, such investors will be loathe to transfer any tech that will make us independent build our own lines. In short, they will want to build more lines on contract from GoI, so they can maximize their RoI.

Then there is the fare issue: given HSR is generally expensive, fares if kept at reasonable levels will still be out of reach of most people. This is not to argue that fares should be kept artificially low, but merely stating that politics invariably gets into our rail operations and govt ends up subsiding a part of ticket costs. Even this will be hard to manage, given the resistance to periodic fares increases corresponding to input costs and inflation. And HSR tickets being more expensive will result in a larger subsidy burden to GoI, and still end up serving a smaller population of users.

Now let's take a look at where railway infrastructure development is heading toward, in order to understand my scepticism for HSR at this juncture.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 19:33

Rail infrastructure and HSR in India – a perspective

[Part II]

What are IR's priorities?

1. Freight traffic

Freight is the biggest money maker for any rail system, and is no different for IR. Also, given our unique situation of political interference in railway operations, artificially low passenger fares are possible due to higher earnings from freight. Also, revenue from freight is what leaves some funds at the end of the year to finance capital works towards safety and infra expansion. To be fair, IR has tried to increase revenue from other sources like advertisements, land leasing, development of railway stations, etc., but freight is still the backbone of the system. Apart from an economic aspect, timely and efficient freight movement in an important driver of the economy, hence its great importance.

It can be argued that given the importance of freight traffic, HSR is a route for IR to be free of passenger movement and concentrate only on freight. Sort of like the US model, where rail companies are all freight movers, with a very minor role played by Amtrak to move passengers. But given the extensive route network of IR, and the preference of people across the country to travel by train, it will require enormous investment to separate even 50% of passenger movement, let alone all traffic. At best, we can implement this idea in the so-called diamond quadrilateral spanning the four metros. Beyond that, this idea is a non-starter.

Operationally, while freight is critical to IR's finance and to the overall economy, it is sad that this traffic gets low priority in movement, resulting in average speeds of around 35kmph! This is an abysmally low speed for any kind of traffic in this day and age, let alone for something so critical for our economy. Passenger traffic is not much better, resulting in low average speeds overall (http://www.irfca.org/docs/stats/stats-goods-trains.html). In fact, both kinds of traffic compete in slowness to drag each other down, so even stop-gap solutions like operating higher speed trains like Rajdhani/Shatabdi expresses, or the so-called Container Rajdhanis (high priority goods trains) end up crawling through loop lines to overtake slower freight traffic. This is a result of all kinds of traffic sharing the same set of tracks. Improving throughput is urgently needed, but it needs to address both kinds of traffic. It is axiomatic that improvement in throughput will lead to improving productivity in the overall economy.

2. Increasing passenger traffic

The Indian Railways as of Mar 2015, carried 715 million passengers per month, of which 315.79 million is non-suburban passenger traffic (http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwa ... h_2015.pdf). This large number translates into 10.19 million passengers per day in March. This is a really large number of passengers for any network to handle, and in the case of IR, necessitates thousands of passenger trains running every day. One estimate, based on 1019 passengers per train (consisting of 24 coaches 13 coaches with 72 pax per SL coach, 4 coaches with 48 pax per A2 coaches) results in 10,000 passenger trains running in the system per day. Add goods and suburban traffic to the above, metro city tracks end up being severely congested and slowing the system further.

The above large numbers will keep increasing as the economy grows. Also, a propensity of railway ministers to keep announcing new trains to satisfy one or the other area will only worsen the congestion. To be fair, the current railway minister hasn't shown this populist tendency going by the previous budget, but the congestion issue still remains.

This demand to run 10,000 trains a day ensures the system is clogged and both freight and passenger trains run at abysmal speeds. An illustrious example is that of the Tamil Nadu express, which was inaugurated with much fanfare on June 1, 1975 to connect New Delhi and Chennai. With the then infrastructure of mostly a single non-electrified track, the train managed to cover this distance of 2190km in 28-29 hours flat. Three decades later, the train has increased in length due to increased demand, and slowed down to 32-33 hours due to congestion, despite there being an electrified double track throughout the entire route. If this is the situation with one of the high priority trains, one can imagine the plight of other trains, which still perform their function as people mover with less glamour!

In conclusion, passenger traffic, like freight traffic, needs to increase throughput.

3. Run a lean ship with rational ticket prices.

This has always been the bane of IR - ticket prices are a politically sensitive issue, so ministers are loathe to increase them corresponding to rising input costs. At worst, they don't touch the fares at all, being content to increase freight charges, or at best, increase the A/C class fares and leave the loss making second class accommodations to be a perennial drain on resources. To make up for this shortfall, IR either has to rely on govt bailouts, which itself is subject to the problem of fiscal deficits, or increase revenue from other sources like advertisements on railway assets, lease/development of railway lands, reduce costs by outsourcing cleaning, catering, etc. None of these approaches are bad, and are in fact needed in order to keep the core focus of IR in running the railway. But these by themselves are not sufficient to bridge the gap, since the network needs heavy capital investment to build new lines promised in previous budgets, and also address the throughput issues mentioned above.

A recent innovation is to introduce premium priced trains on select routes, akin to the Rajdhani trains with all A/C accommodation. These ideas are good, as they maximize revenue from a scarce resource (a train berth), but will still not meet all of the shortfall and need for funds. The other aspect is that, berths across IR are all scarce, but increasing fares only on a select set of berths is also to indirectly increase the subsidy for the second class passengers, as IR will try to maximize the fares from this category.

The bottom line is that we need periodic fare revision across all classes to reflect rising input costs. It is okay for IR to maximize returns from low fares with narrow margins, as sheer volume will make it significant. In order to serve the social mandate of IR, second class fares can be kept low, but should at least ensure a breakeven level, with periodic fare changes reflecting changing input costs. The A/C accommodation fares can provide the profitable revenue that be used elsewhere. While the current railway minister has increased fares across the board to a certain extent, he was still forced to back track on suburban fares to address the issue of an upcoming election in Maharashtra. So, even a reform minded minister can be subject to political considerations, hence the key is to institutionalize fare management. A statutory agency to set fares can be thought of, isolated from political interference. Something like TRAI.

In conclusion, while an argument can be made that keeping fares so low enables people to travel easily across the country especially for work, the lack of discipline in at least ensuring a break-even scenario for second class travel hurts us in the long run, as money for investments are not found internally, leading to a need for borrowing and FDI.

4. Try to reduce/complete existing projects.

The cost estimate to build all the pending projects announced by previous rail ministers is around ₹ 1,85,000 crores. To be specific, 406 projects attempt to build around 43,892 km, most of which is un-remunerative. IR should look to reduce this list and retain only those that make financial sense, along with those that are of national importance, like rail infrastructure in the north east or J&K. Even then, given the financial pressures IR is under, it looks difficult for IR to finance all the new-line projects. Borrowing is an option, but IR needs to borrow anyway to address the throughput issues mentioned above, which is a more fundamental need. So it would be best if they rope in the states to contribute toward new-line projects, especially since the tax receipts share to states has increased now - almost 67% of all tax receipts are devolved to the states. They can think of a model similar to the Chennai MRTS model: 66% of funds borne by the state, remaining by IR. And cancel the remaining projects.

Of course, just asking the states for money is not fair to the states, so in future, a mechanism should be built wherein the states can come forward and propose new projects on this investment sharing basis. This will give the states more say in their development priorities, and will also ensure the states are enthusiastic participants in new projects, resulting in faster implementation.

5. Streamline suburban operations

About 55% of IR's daily passenger traffic is suburban in nature (http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwa ... h_2015.pdf), which comes to about 12 million passengers a day, so this is a definite priority area for IR to focus on. However, the current model has some serious drawbacks, as we shall see below.

- Lack of dedicated infrastructure: barring a few metro routes in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai, suburban trains have to share tracks with other express and goods trains, which only adds to the congestion in these areas. This reduces service reliability and keeps more people away from utilizing these services, leading to increased personal transport.

- Centralized model of management: while the regional railway zones have operational freedom in regards to suburban operations, they don't have much room to tweak services to meet local demands. So new services still have to be approved at the zonal level, sometimes from even higher up. It is not uncommon to see the railway minister announcing new suburban services in the national rail budget, which only shows how centralised the system is. Allowing local authorities the flexibility in running operations will go a long way in keeping suburban services responsive.

- Opposition to multi-modal revenue sharing: since IR has been running suburban services for a long time, the institutional effect is to run the service by itself, with little thought given to integrating with local transport. This affects the commuter as (s)he has to get separate tickets to travel in bus and train, without having a single ticket system in place, which is inefficient and expensive for the commuter. To be fair, there is enough blame on both sides, as states are also reluctant to coordinate and share the systems to enable this to work. But from IR's PoV, a decision needs to be made to allow local authorities to be set up in all cities to implement a single ticket system, followed by streamlining operations and constructing new infrastructure to address local needs. An example is Mumbai's MRVC, but it does not have enough autonomy.

IR should devolve enough powers to these local authorities so they take care of operations, rolling stock, special services, road-side infra in stations (bus bays, parking lots, auto-stands, etc.), and also let them coordinate and plan with the local govt to add new infrastructure. In short, IR should get out of the suburban train business and switch to a purely revenue sharing model with local/state governments (for using IR tracks and other assets). Wherever possible, ownership of dedicated suburban tracks and related assets should be transferred to these authorities, with a revenue model worked out for using the infra. IR can play the role of a regulator enforcing safety and operational standards are maintained. With the advent of dedicated metro systems, this is looking more feasible and the central leadership also seems positively inclined to this.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 19:35

Rail infrastructure and HSR in India – a perspective

[Part III]

GoI priorities:
Now let's take a look at the priorities of the govt. of India, as applicable to rail transport.

1. Push economy into next level

Naturally, the first priority is to grow the economy as fast as possible, especially to make up for the lost growth in the past 4-5 years. So a sustained GDP growth of 8% and above is a definite priority, and to achieve this, a few changes are needed from the railways' PoV. One of the basic changes is to improve frieght loading across the country, and improve throughput. Faster and reliable freight movement will allow cheaper transport costs, and the effect is usually felt in the downstream areas consuming the goods being thus transported. So, this ties in with the point made above to improve track capacity (hence throughput).

Some attempts have been made in this direction, such as the dedicated freight corridor (DFC) between Mumbai and Delhi, and the corresponding one between Delhi and Kolkata. While these projects will definitely help as they will take a bulk of the freight movement away from the current shared rail tracks, they have been hampered by slow execution and delays in land acquisition, etc.
However, while the DFC is promising, it still addresses only 2 sectors in the country, with no improvements planned towards the south or southwest regions, let alone the central heartland of the country. So a new plan is needed to address infrastructure needs in these areas, especially since they account for a large percentage of port infra in the country.

Having said that, some focus on passenger movement is also needed, since India has a very large pool of migrant labour, and generally a lot of people travel by trains for work. So any reduction in travel times will help this travelling population and lead to an improvement in productivity. This is sort of being addressed by the HSR plan, but it will not benefit as many people as one would think. Not yet, at least.

2. Make in India.

The Make in India concept is designed to give a fillip to manufacturing, for which the railways will play a very important role - both in supplying raw material, and transporting the finished goods to their markets/ports for export goods. This means needing more investment in freight operations, especially in the so-called diamond quadrilateral, only two arms of which are addressed by the DFC.

Here is where HSR can play a small role, but only if we leverage make in India with MADE in India. In the long term, we should be looking to build a network of HSR, spanning the entire country. But that needs dedicated and fenced tracks, new rolling stock capable of running at 200-250 kmph, etc. Add in the cost of land acquisition, new terminal points in cities, etc. and it becomes very expensive.
Estimates for HSR range between ₹100-140 crores per km of track, compared to around ₹10 crore per km of regular track (http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 779_1.html). The benefit? A few thousand passengers a day, tops, given the plan for 2-3 corridors to begin with. This is but a drop in the 10 million passengers per day across IR.

Also, the fares will need to be subsidized significantly to carry a larger number of passengers, or it won't be affordable to most of the middle class. The latter is reticent to spend on luxury and will naturally try to get the biggest bang for the buck. I will back this with 3 examples:

a) The passenger trains out of Chennai Egmore to the southern part of TN accounts for a large part of Southern Railway’s (SR) revenue, and this population generally belongs to the middle class. But even today, most of them prefer travelling by regular second class coaches than by AC, even though affordability is not an issue.

b) Secondly, in order to bump up popularity of the all-AC double decker express from Chennai to Bangalore, SR progressively reduced the facilities on board the Brindavan express in order to drive passengers to use the double decker. Brindavan express first lost its AC chair cars, then reserved compartments (so less security and comfort), and is now running with only a handful of reserved coaches, remaining coaches for unreserved traffic. SR also kept the fares of the DD AC coaches at the same level of the Brindavan's AC chair cars, and not at the higher Shatabdi express level, so as to attract passengers. The effect? Brindavan is still crowded as before, and one can walk in and get a ticket on the double decker just before departure. This is the situation on one of the most well-to-do travel segments in the country, and where an HSR is being planned!

c) Last example: the double decker express between Hyderabad (Kacheguda) and Guntur/Vijayawada introduced with much fanfare last year is going to be withdrawn at the end of May 2015, due to poor patronage (http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Vis ... 131972.ece). This is despite Vijayawada rumoured to be the new capital of AP, and this being a well-heeled passenger traffic route in the combined states of Telengana/AP. Even here, the fares of the double decker express are kept on par with a regular AC chair car, not that of the Shatabdi class.
The above examples give an insight into people’s preferences when coming to travel. If this the case with a predominantly middle class clientele, who will have to provide the bulk of traffic to the HSR, how will poorer people travelling for work even contemplate such options?

Does this mean don't think of HSR? No, we can certainly start planning, but the time is not right yet for our economy. Maybe 2025, after 10 years growth @8% will give us enough room to do this, for which we can evaluate the situation around 2020 and start from there.

The priority for now should be to upgrade a significant portion of our network to semi-high speed (150-200kmph), and then think of true HSR. Only then can we contemplate upgrading the rest of IR to at least semi-HS in the long run.

3. Urban transport

The GoI, through the ministry of urban development, needs to aggressively invest in urban transport in smaller towns/cities that will grow into metropolitan areas in the near future. These could be metro rail, light metro rail, bus rapid transit, suburban rail or a combination of the above. There are many cities with a million plus population and are already congested and growing haphazardly. Considering the larger metros are mostly done and still chaotic with little planning, at least future cities need to be planned and grown sustainably. Given that urbanisation is going to happen anyway, we might as well plan and direct it properly and not make the mistakes made in the larger metros, such as not really focusing on urban development as a priority earlier.

Also, given that urban infrastructure will impact a huge number of people (some states like TN and Kerala are more than 50% urban), this is a priority area for government investment into infrastructure. An urban fund on the lines of JNURRM that provides cheap lines of credits and grants, and allowing local bodies to raise funds through municipal bonds and fund their expansion will go a long way in growing the future cities of India. Also, as mentioned above, having a unified transport authority under the aegis of these urban bodies with central agencies like the Indian Railways and other transport departments being members will allow for directed local development based on local priorities.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 19:38

Rail infrastructure and HSR in India – a perspective

[Part IV]

My suggestion:

Let’s consider building a diamond quadrilateral of quadrupled tracks (linking the four metropolitan cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Howrah, commonly known as the Golden Quadrilateral and its two diagonals adding up to a total route length of 10,122 km).

A quick back of the envelope calculation reveals: 10,122KM * ₹10CR/km *2 (2 tracks, 2 already exist) = ₹ 2,02,440 crores. Compare this with ₹ 60,000 crores just for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR, which is only around 500km in length! Extrapolating this further, a potential Delhi-Chennai HSR could cost upwards of ₹ 2,19,000 crores! Instead, with the right investment, the funds could be put to better use and build an entire diamond of 4 tracks. Also, IR could upgrade this quadrilateral to 150kmph throughout with existing home-grown expertise. If that is too expensive, upgrade 2 tracks to 150kmph, and the remaining 2 at 130, allowing for geographic constraints like ghat sections. For better returns, such a project needs to be made time bound, with a completion date of 5 years. While this may sound aggressive, a determined push can make this a reality and also spur a lot of skill development due to involvement of more local contractors working in parallel to get the project done within this time frame.

The advantage of this approach is, the technology for this plan exists with IR already: construction capability, some operational experience with 140-150kmph routes (albeit small), locos capable of 140kmph (WAP-4/WAP-7), 160kmph (WAP-5), rolling stock capable of 130kmph (ICF, A/C), 130kmph (LHB, non-A/C), 160kmph (LHB, A/C), tracks capable of 150kmph (Delhi-Agra), 130kmph (Mathura - Vadodara, Agra - Lalitpur and Delhi - Kolkata), 120 kmph (Lalitpur - Chennai/Hyderabad, Vadodara-Mumbai), and so on. If given funds, upgrading of these and other sections to higher speeds is possible within the constraints of existing technology. By quadrupling tracks around the diamond, IR can segregate traffic based on speed: faster passenger trains and Container-Rajdhanis on the high speed tracks, slower goods and local passengers in the slower tracks.

Let me make a quick stop at the operations part of such a quadrilateral. By having 2 tracks for each direction, one track can be reserved for high speed trains and the other for slower ones. Also, by building these tracks with regular high speed turnouts (currently IR is experimenting with 70kmph turnouts), trains can be switch between tracks to allow for overtakes of slower trains as needed, and still using the full facilities optimally. Why is this important? Currently, most of the trains’ low average speed is partly due to the need to slow down every 15-20km, take the loop line at some station and overtake a parked goods train in the mainline. This is done since it takes a long time for a goods train to start from a halt, and putting them into a loop will take even more time as they will have to negotiate the points at the rated 20kmph speed till the entire rake is on the main line and then start accelerating. By parking them on the mainline, the goods train can start accelerating right away and reduce the time the track section is blocked by it. A passenger train is lighter and has better acceleration, so it is allowed to go through the loop and overtake. But given that it still has to slow down to 20kmph to enter the loop, some amount of time is wasted.

In the quad track scenario, by having 2 tracks in the same direction, we can avoid the above problem. The goods train can be on the slower track and still be moving at a decent speed, say 70kmph. A faster passenger train can overtake it on the run by being on the faster track. Since neither train needs to slow down, let alone stop, both trains are speeded up. Also, for the times when the fast track is free of traffic, goods trains can also be run on it, so as to overtake even slower local passenger trains, or track maintenance, and other operational reasons. By having high speed turnouts, these trains can switch between tracks faster without slowing down significantly, and definitely without stopping. So they don’t end up wasting time, nor wasting other trains’ time. This is also beneficial in terms of energy savings as trains consume energy to slow down as well as to start.

The 70kmph turnout is under trials in the Delhi-Agra section, and will soon be replicated elsewhere. There is a possibility that goods trains by virtue of their weight may be restricted to a lower speed than 70 when using these turnouts, but the benefits are still significant as the speed at the turnouts will still be higher than the 15-20kmph used currently. Lastly, even if we consider the most pessimistic scenario and say that goods trains should slow down to 20kmph when changing tracks, it is still faster and more energy efficient than bringing the goods train to a complete halt for an overtake. This is because, goods trains due to their weight and inertia, require the most tractive effort, i.e. pulling strength of the locomotive, and hence the most energy when starting from a stop.

Admittedly, the current minister of railways, Mr. Suresh Prabhu has announced a similar plan for enhancing the current diamond quad to permit 160kmph operations. So it is good to see the GoI thinking in similar terms. However, more details are needed to understand this plan, and whether it involves new tracks at all. My suggestion is to bite the bullet and go ahead with 4 tracks throughout, as we will definitely need them (and maybe even more in some sections) in the future given our population size and rail usage.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2015 19:39

Rail infrastructure and HSR in India – a perspective

[Part V]

Now for a brief look at the benefits of the quad track diamond quadrilateral:

1. Reduce congestion significantly, as this diamond carries 60% of all freight and passengers traffic, give or take a few.

2. Benefit more than 50% of travelling public (~5-6 million per day) through significant time savings, as opposed to benefiting a few thousand people going at super speeds, leaving the rest of the public trundling along at pre-independence speeds. (http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwa ... h_2015.pdf, http://www.irfca.org/docs/stats/stats-goods-trains.html - these are somewhat old stats, but they are not significantly different from today given the low capital investment in the last decade)

3. Spinoffs to local industry by placing orders for new steel rails (SAIL, etc.), coaches (RCF, ICF, BEML), locos (CLW, DLW), procurement of construction materials like concrete sleepers, ballast, cement, iron (platforms, OHE, masts, etc.), labour for construction, etc.
3a. allowing tax benefits to contractors who involve smaller local companies/labour in different locations so as to grow skilled labour pool will help in the long run.

4. Increase in productivity of economy due to faster travel times, leading to less time spent on the journey itself. Two case studies below to detail this, Delhi-Chennai and Delhi-Mumbai.

5. Allow aviation sector to grow in parallel, since semi-HS will not necessarily poach traffic from long distance flights like Mum-Del or Chennai-Delhi. 10-15 years later will be a better time for the economy to support both transportation options, as the middle class will have grown significantly from its current base, and will have more people with more disposable income to spend.

6. Freight speeds will improve, leading to faster transportation of goods, and reducing road based transportation for long distance haulage. This will lead to fuel savings, less road congestion, and better last mile delivery using road transport.

7. Using the gains from such an infrastructure plan, further enhancements can be done to upgrade more corridors to semi-HS. Some portion of these gains should be dedicated to funding R&D to enhance domestic tech to scale up to higher speeds in the 200+ range, and potentially developing our own HSR systems in consultation with domestic aeronautical agencies to help with drag reduction, high performance electronics, engines etc.

In a future post, depending on readers' interest, I will detail a potential schedule for 2 trains to demonstrate how investment in existing infra will show tangible time benefits.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 21 May 2015 19:47

@arshyam
I read the first post. The govt is going to go bust if it tries to subsidize HSR like with airfares. Your other arguments are sound. HSR should not be priority. The existing network should be priority. However, railways is not a strategic area like defense. So it is not a big loss if there is no TOT. However, if govt can manage to get Indian pvt industries involved e.g. plants in India that manufacture rolling stock in co-operation with locals, etc that will help "Make in India". You have to leverage the maket and use it to open up manufacturing. I believe that is exactly what the Chinese did with Japanese HSR tech.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 May 2015 06:39

Arshyam good write up.

Please note East-West corridors are only the first stage of the DFC. There are preliminary notes to extend it to all the major ports, Chennai-Vijaywada-Mangalore and link up the heartland.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 May 2015 20:08

unpleasant experiences on the rajdhani express
TTE and attendants letting in extra people to make money...old coaches as usual offloaded to the NE side

https://www.facebook.com/prashdelhi/pos ... 9378800200

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 May 2015 20:45

Interesting comments.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 23 May 2015 11:36

This is a short video that tells how Japanese cleans Its Bullet Trains In 7 Minutes. Their discipline, speed, techniques are really amazing. Probably Indian trains take a little bit more time for floor mopping.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 May 2015 15:38

well the indian public first needs to be educated not to litter inside trains. even inside rajdhani and shatabdi few if any store and carry out their own trash.

look at the film, there is not even a stray newspaper or half used plastic bottle let alone food waste for the crew to clear. the train is neat and in very good condition even before they entered.

compare to our trains and our junta how they leave it behind

6 hrs is a challenge to clean our 25 rake behemoths and their unruly pax

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 May 2015 15:46

Bade wrote:^^ Such things have happened elsewhere too like with NH-7 in Bengaluru near the airport when they smashed up the toll booths and it was suspended for a few months till completion of the entire expressway as I recall.

I have traveled on NH-47 two years back all the way from Trichur town to Kochi and had to pay toll. Did something change recently ? My recent trip few months back did not venture out since it was a pit stop in KL both TVM and Kochi. The metro construction activity just made it look like B'lur all torn apart.

very foolish to have toll connection on the trip to the BLR airport. It is leading to great resentment. Isn't it the only airport in the country where one pays a toll to reach it??

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 May 2015 19:37

You have to pay toll to use the Hyd ORR to reach airport.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 23 May 2015 20:01

For their productivity they get paid well too and get to live relatively well off middle class lives. What do our train cleaners get paid... ..don't even want to speculate...

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 23 May 2015 20:01

Kochi metro extension to eastern suburbs (Infopark) has been approved as part of Phase 1a. Another extension to west Kochi and all the way to the airport in the next decade will be sufficient to ease the traffic congestion. A north-south line along NH47 and NH17 connecting to Parur will be the final one by 2030 or so to make it a complete network. Good going so far.

As the other two cities (TVM & Kozhikode) build out their metro systems, and people start enjoying first hand the fruits of comfortable train travel they will clamor for a state wide HSR by 2020. With the urban aggregation KL has it is the only place which justifies such a system IMO even now and in another decade will surely become more vocal.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 23 May 2015 21:17

Mr Puri points to plans for an infrastructure bond to be sold to members of the diaspora. One model for this could be a bond for building Cochin airport, in Kerala, to which nearly 10,000 Indians abroad contributed. “A highly successful community is looking to engage back again,” says Mr Puri.

link

Just like people in Ulan Bator invested in the Kochi airport, so that it benefited poor labor class/students/postdocs in those times, the same model could be used for HSR. A million Malayalees in the gulf and west could jump start this whole project buying > $1000 each in bonds. A TVM-Kochi phase 1 line will cost (100crore/km * 250km) about $5 billion. This investment source itself can be 20-30% of this project cost. Rest in loans and the minimal land that need to be acquired for pillars paid by money out of state govt coffers.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 25 May 2015 22:35

Muri Express derails in UP, 4 dead

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 415691.cms