Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 09 Jul 2015 10:40

Suraj,

The orthodox churches of the Eastern Rite (broadly Greek, Cypriot, Slavic, Bulgar, Russian, Ukrainian, etc) are very well inter-connected considering their many practical and ethnic divergences, and highly politically involved. Always have been, again broadly speaking. So undoubtedly some of the solidarity that the countries feel - extending from Ukraine down to Cyprus (and even Syria to some extent) is a result of this underlying and understated ecclesiastical brotherhood. This sense of solidarity will stand Greece in good stead in the current climate, and certainly the sense of fraternity with the Russians derives in no small measure from this factor, but also others. Coalesced, they cannot but constitute an important part of Greece's strategic and geo-political calculus. Does this mean that, in the immediate instance, Russia will "bail Greece out" by itself? Unlikely in my opinion. But there are a lot of things that Russia can do behind the scenes on this score. Knowing Russia as we do from our own experience, we can be quite sure that Russia will do a lot of those things. And Greece will be grateful. Because, for Greece, it is easier to be grateful to Russia today, than it is to Germany.

There is no question in my mind the US will read this accurately, and play it to the hilt to its own advantage.

Here's a little anecdote: Some years ago, the Ukrainian orthodox patriarch visited Cyprus on invitation and carried out a number of ecclesiastical activities, and I believe also met with political dignitaries. He was hosted in style, and by all measures of judgement the visit was successful and added to the strengthening of the orthodox brotherhood. All generally positive. Quietly in the background was someone who bore some if not most of the cost of this visit, a Hindu businessman of Nepali origin, with commercial interests in Russia and possibly Ukraine as well.

The world is changing in ways that are subtle, fine and ripe for incremental influence and consolidation.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 09 Jul 2015 10:48

From The Chindu..
Australian heads to Greece to help crying pensioner in iconic photo

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 09 Jul 2015 11:14

Who do Greece and Iran think they are?

As global powers find themselves locked in face-offs with two relatively small states – economic powerhouse Germany and the European Union with Greece over its debt, and the United States and five other world powers with Iran over its nuclear program – exasperation is growing among the “bigs” that their smaller counterparts are not bowing to reality and accepting compromise faster than they are.

After all, it’s Greece that risks a full financial collapse without another European bailout, and Iran whose economy has been slammed by international sanctions that will only be lifted if Tehran agrees to a deal limiting its nuclear ambitions and opening its nuclear facilities to inspection.

The major powers in both crises see mounting brinkmanship and intransigence where they feel reason should prevail. But both Greece and Iran are engaging their more powerful interlocutors in a manner that suggests how much they are driven by the more ephemeral motivations of dignity and mutual respect.

The Greek and Iranian examples aren’t the first instances where smaller states have used the scenario of the little guy being stepped on by big, bad bullies to further their cases, particularly with domestic audiences. The imbalance of power in both diplomatic confrontations has seemed to reinforce the determination in Athens and Tehran to stand firm on what they see as their sovereign interests.

But even if the appeal to a sense of national dignity resonates, some diplomatic analysts say taking pride too far can end up closing off escape routes to countries in crisis – ultimately working against their public's interests.

“In both these cases of high-powered negotiations – Greece over its debt crisis and Iran over its nuclear program – the smaller country feels it’s facing the opprobrium of the rest of the world,” says Mark Hibbs, a Berlin-based senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That has led to an us-versus-them sentiment that has fed off of each country’s strong sense of national pride, and in both cases the leaders have played that card with their populations.”

But in both cases, too much focus on national dignity has helped push the negotiations to the brink of failure, Mr. Hibbs adds – an outcome he says does not serve the interests of either country.

In the Iran case, international negotiations in Vienna that faced a Tuesday deadline were extended to the end of the week, with both sides saying significant progress was made in recent days but that critical sticking points remained.

As for Greece, a referendum Sunday that screamed nationalist pride as voters rejected Europe-imposed austerity measures has been followed by Greek calls for renewed debt-relief talks and a European cold shoulder, particularly from Germany.

As they navigate their respective crises, both the Greek and Iranian governments are trumpeting a historical narrative that portrays them as the victim of big-power efforts to subjugate and dominate the less powerful, some analysts say.

“In both Iran and Greece they have spent decades cultivating a narrative of grievance,” says Peter Feaver, a professor of international relations at Duke University in Durham, N.C. “So in that atmosphere you have [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel transformed into Adolf Hitler, and the America of Obama turned into the America of the 1950s,” when the US engineered a coup in Tehran that installed the late Shah Reza Pahlavi in power, he adds.

To the Western powers and international institutions dealing with Iran on nuclear ambitions and Greece on its debt, “that narrative is beside the point of the matters at hand, it’s not today’s story,” Dr. Feaver says. “But to the Iranian and Greek delegations, that longer historical context does make sense,” he adds. “It serves as a filter for distorting the policy options.”

The narrative of smaller countries confronting the injustices of the world’s arrogant powers is a longtime staple of Iranian rhetoric in particular, Carnegie’s Hibbs says. Iran has claimed an international right to an indigenous nuclear power program since the early 2000s, he notes, and has portrayed international efforts to investigate Iran’s nuclear facilities as a veiled attempt by “the Great Satan” and other world powers to deny Iran an international right.

To a large extent that narrative fell into disuse in Greece as the country joined the powerful club that is the European Union, and then entered the even more restricted inner circle in the Eurozone. But the narrative of the aggrieved has returned with a vengeance, Hibbs says, as Germany’s powerbroker role in the country’s debt-relief negotiations has revived memories of Nazi Germany’s occupation of Greece.

But Hibbs says that both Greece and Iran are “picking and choosing” among historical facts to suit their narrative, leaving aside those that don’t fit the story they wish to tell.

“In both cases there’s a kind of historical amnesia,” he says. “You hear about rights and dignity, but you don’t hear Iranians acknowledging their country’s two decades of systematically violating international obligations” related to the nuclear program, he says.

“You don’t hear the Greeks saying they’re in this mess because of past [financial] commitments they didn’t honor,” Hibbs adds. “At some point, you’d like part of the picture to be the Greeks facing their responsibilities in addressing their problems.”

Duke’s Feaver agrees that Greece has played up the “powerful narrative of big countries imposing things on a smaller country” when it should be looking at its own role in its difficulties.

But he also sees a danger in equating the Greek and Iranian cases, when the game he sees Iran playing is much more about expansive ambitions than about addressing grievances.

“Iran is a country with imperial ambitions and it plays a much more problematic role in the region, and that does figure in the nuclear talks,” Feaver says. “Greece’s peccadilloes are much more of the ordinary sort,” he adds, “things like a dysfunctional public sector and overspending and petty corruption. So in that sense it’s not fair to lump them together.”

Moreover, he says that the Greeks face real-life upheaval and impoverishment as a result of coming to terms with Germany and the EU that go beyond the ephemeral injuries of a supposed wounded national pride.

“The Greeks are being asked to do things that are not just a matter of pride, but which would be very disruptive of Greek citizens’ lives,” he says. “But in material terms, what is being asked of Iran [in the nuclear talks] does not put in jeopardy the average Iranian citizen – although it may be problematic for the military part of the Iranian state.”

The injured dignity argument may have won the Iranian regime some points at home, and it may even resonate with other “small” states.

But Feaver says Western powers, and in particular the US, should stand up to it and address it for the negotiating tactic that it is.

“I think President Obama wants to say, ‘Wait a minute Iran, this is not about the little guy defying the strong, it’s not about the powerful trying to dominate the weak; this is about the rule of law.’ ”

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Po ... -the-world

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Jul 2015 13:09

It is the problem when US start preaching to others on international law etc while sending drone to people in other nations and arrnaging for color revolutions, coups etc in the nations they do not like.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 09 Jul 2015 15:09

JE Menon wrote: In fact, my brother-in-law, a hardline nationalist Cretan Greek who will put any of us Hindutva chaps to shame , carries the surname "Fermanis" - which of course means one of his ancestors was the person responsible for carrying the "firman" of the local equivalent of the Mughal satrap.

So you had a HinGreek wedding

, like a Hinjew one...

Greeks figure in the shortlist of highly successful diaspora. But they stand out in that they are the only one where the home economy is in dire straits - and there are no extenuating circumstances. Iranians at least have the excuse of US sanctions.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 09 Jul 2015 16:38

vera_k wrote:
Let us not kid ourselves, the way many Europeans are kidding themselves, that Greece is entirely unique. Portugal, Italy and Spain—“core” European welfare states—already have made the same transition to dependence on external “other people’s money” to uphold their welfare systems.

In America, the Federal Government acts as a huge transfer mechanism of money between states, for example Florida gets $2.02 for every $1 it pays in federal taxes, and New Jersey gets $0.48 for every $1 it pays in federal taxes. So Florida also has a dependence on "other people's money" - it is the fact of being in the United States that makes it not-other-people's money - but make no mistake, it is non-Florideans' money. (And Florida is not the worst, check Mississippi or Alabama).

http://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-le ... ment/2700/

BTW, it is similar in India. I'll bet it is the same with the various Chinese provinces. What that suggests is that a political union is necessary, not just an economic union, for the EU to work.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Jul 2015 16:57

That's because most of Floridians' money is in Wall Street or Atlantic City

And without Florida there would be no funding for the War on Drugs.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Jul 2015 17:01

UlanBatori wrote:That's because most of Floridians' money is in Wall Street or Atlantic City And without Florida there would be no funding for the War on Drugs.

Aren't some of the amreki pension funds landing up in India now?? may be some from europe too??

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 09 Jul 2015 17:24

A_Gupta wrote: What that suggests is that a political union is necessary, not just an economic union, for the EU to work.

What exactly will a Political union achieve?

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 09 Jul 2015 17:25

A_Gupta wrote: In America, the Federal Government acts as a huge transfer mechanism of money between states, for example Florida gets $2.02 for every $1 it pays in federal taxes, and New Jersey gets $0.48 for every $1 it pays in federal taxes. So Florida also has a dependence on "other people's money" - it is the fact of being in the United States that makes it not-other-people's money - but make no mistake, it is non-Florideans' money. (And Florida is not the worst, check Mississippi or Alabama).

http://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-le ... ment/2700/

BTW, it is similar in India. I'll bet it is the same with the various Chinese provinces. What that suggests is that a political union is necessary, not just an economic union, for the EU to work.

Good point. ||r to what I had mentioned earlier. Only one correction: The EU is indeed a pol union and a FT (free trade) zone. Its just that there is no fiscal authority to ensure that the laggards aren't taken care of and they are asked for a pound of flesh for justice and money ala Merchant of Venice. And make no mistake, they did this for 5 years before saying enough is enough. So, ceteris paribus, even if Greeks were as lazy and as incompetent as they are caricatured currently, why did they keep at this nonsense for about 5 years?

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 09 Jul 2015 17:34

NRao wrote:There is a problem with Greece, no doubt.

There is no problem WITH Greece. There is a problem IN Greece.

NRao wrote:But there is a problem with the Euro too.

Not from my understanding. Euro is well balanced externally. Internal differences do not have a direct influence on the viability of Euro. Its still held globally equal to a bit more than 30% as forex reserves.

NRao wrote:How can multiple nation, behaving in their own individual ways have a common currency? How do you maintain fiscal responsibility across a disparate political systems?

The ECB does that. ECB is not like another central bank. It has only 1 mandate. Maintain 2% inflation target across Eurozone. Its not encumbered with another target that RBI or US federal reserve or BOJ or BOE have i.e. high employment. This is written implicitly in their charter. And from 1999 to date, they have followed it.

NRao wrote:So, Greece spends as she pleases, but cannot print her money. Which is what she will do if she opts for her own currency - the drakma (sp?).

She has to live within her means. If your daughter stamps her foot and says why is her credit card (you gave taken away after she has run a huge bill), will you still give it back to her. Wont there be a demand for some reform?

NRao wrote:Watch the next funny episode: Obama calls Merkel and requests her to go easy because the US fears that Greece may fall into the Russian orbit. Eh?

He will because the US has the most to loose if the European internal problems cause panic in US stock markets. Europe is doing fine externally. The problem is we think there is a structural flaw. There is none. If you understand why there was a need to create Euro, you would give the Eurocrats some credit. Sometimes it hard to cut through the bull shit, because the financial press itself does not understand anything.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Jul 2015 21:29

Av.Spot on! You hit the nail on the head with this one.

There is full recognition in the media, including economic data, the ECB is not a central bank, such as the US central bank, called Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. What a central bank is printing money and thereby buy government debt to force its state interests of this debt down. But the ECB has been doing this. What has been doing has been printing money, money that it lent itself to a rock-bottom interest to private banks, which bought with this money the public debt of the States, which had to pay huge interests (of even 13% in the case of Greece), to get money because they could not get the ECB. Hence they had no protection against speculation banks. Thus, private banks continue raising money and getting some very low interest. And with this money bought government bonds that assured them a high interest. It was the "bargain" of the century. Hence the enormous growth of public debt, especially in the PIGS countries emerged. This meant a huge, and I repeat, enormous benefits of private banking and its enormous growth.

It's exactly like credit card payments,where one suddenly finds that all that one has been doing is paying off interest at 36%,while the original debt remains the same.

The bankers got easy cheap money,a real steal in connivance with central banks,and r*ped the borrowers wholesale!

The US has now stepped in because they see the enormous "strategic shift" that will happen in Greece is kicked out of the Eurozone.It will have repercussions again with Greece's membership of NATO and even if Greece stays in NATO,Greece may lease out for 99 years ports ,air and naval facilities to Russia,a nightmare that the US/Europe cannot even imagine right now. Russia with naval facilities in Syria,Cyprus,Greece,Egypt,etc.,could come to challenge NATO's domination of the Meditt. that could have a domino effect as Europe weakens. Secondly,Greece may be the first of the PIGS to default,leave the "Euro and enter the "Zero-zone"! Govts would change character to more socialist regimes,a catastrophe for crony-capitalism. The effect of Greece in the 21st century may be a repeat of its ancient influence upon European politics and nationhood.

Greece news live: Germans in rift with the rest of Europe over debt relief proposals after US intervention
Markets rise on hopes of a deal as Brussels concedes to Greek debt relief after White House pressures creditor to allow for debt sustainability
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ntion.html

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 09 Jul 2015 22:01

http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/07/09/m ... -question/

Must-Read: Luigi Zingales: Who is the legitimate leader on the European side? That is the real question: “Tsipras was not part of the Brussels’ elite…

…was challenging the legitimacy of the Brussels’ elite. You can be a crook, you can be an unelected leader and – if you are one of them – your legitimacy will never be questioned in Brussels or Frankfurt. But if you are not… you will be openly undermined even if you had democratically won a clear mandate. As a result, from day one – everybody from Junker to the Eurogroup – was trying to make this government fall…. This was extremely antidemocratic and underhanded. Now it cannot continue…. The Institutions do not need to accept Tsipras’s conditions, but they have to negotiate with him in good faith. The no vote does not necessarily mean Grexit, unless the Institutions want so…. The Institutions will also have to avoid at all costs to let Mario Draghi be the de facto killer of Greece…. Greece’s future in the euro cannot depend on a technicality. It is a political decision that should be taken by legitimately elected leaders. On Greece side, there is Tsipras. Who is there on the European side?…

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 09 Jul 2015 22:46

Can India do something to help Greece?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Jul 2015 00:13

SwamyG wrote:Can India do something to help Greece?

Why should we? They weren't hit by a natural disaster. This is a crisis of their own making. Besides, what can anyone do? Give them money? This whole thing happened because people kept lending them money when they shouldn't have.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 10 Jul 2015 00:23

Good question. People remember when they are helped during their tough times. Definitely not free money, India probably does not want to gift that kind of money. Hey, if IMF/EU are charging them something, can't we not undercut them

Also, if you read JEM's post he talks about the Eastern Orthodox connections, India and Greek had connections too you know. Also, the current GoI is predisposed to helping others in need. So connecting all the dots together onlee.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 10 Jul 2015 01:20

^^boss we have plenty at home far far more in need

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 10 Jul 2015 01:27

Why just Greece...there is a great oppty to help Greece, Germany, China, US and Arabs. I wish we can all do a sahanubhooti rally and taking a pledge to keep them in our thoughts (while going to potty). Considering Greece and euro situation, we can offer 50% discount on consultation services they would other spend themselves.

Let's there be biggest rally of sheetheads sympathizing with aggrieved parties which both are and let media run it in target countries 24/7

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Jul 2015 01:34

JE Menon wrote:^^boss we have plenty at home far far more in need

+100

Besides, lending them more money at this point is only going to push the crisis to a later date. I don't see how they can stay in the Eurozone and fix their debt problems at the same time. They have got two bailouts till now worth about $260 billion. And they're still $300 billion in debt.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 10 Jul 2015 05:39

India can offer easy loans/terms for food and pharmaceutical imports from India, if this crisis goes on for long. If there is a Grexit, a Drachma/INR exchange facility can be put in place. Strategic importance of Greece to India is not high, probably much less than even Mongolia.

Before the economic slump, bilateral trade was as follows (US $ millions)
2011-12
India's exports to Greece 790.06
India's imports from Greece 116.07
total volume of trade 906.13

The Greek economic slump has greatly reduced imports from India - the next year it was USD 300 million.

PS: India could also use its votes in various multilateral institutions to push for aid to Greece.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Jul 2015 05:57

Greece can be made an Honorary Member of the SAARC_MINUS-PAK, hain? Surely they not less credit-worthy than Pak?
Anyway, what happens if they exit EU? Greeks will need Schengen visa to enter EU? And British and Germans to vacation in Greece. Greece will have to pay hard cash/barter for oil? Greece is still part of NATO.
Do the loans become totally worthless? Greece gets away without paying anything back?
Why don't they cut the interest rate from 13% to the astronomical 0.00001% that Ulan Bator Wells Go Far pays on the money that I have loaned them, to ensure repayment over time?
Some of the top bank owners and shipping magnates in the world are Greek. What are they doing about these? From the totals that I saw, the outstanding loan is only $80B or $100B, which is like 50 days of war expenses in Eyerak. Not a big deal, is it?

Why not get Greece as NATO member, to agree to purchase, say 50 F-35s? Then the US will provide the $50B immediately and they can repay the debt, and then they can get the F-35s for free like Pakistan gets F-16s. Maybe Turkey could lend them a few ISIS types, so that Greece can declare themselves part of GOAT or BO's Indolent Resolve.

Clearly they need to come to me for troubleshooting.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 10 Jul 2015 08:56

SwamyG wrote:Can India do something to help Greece?

Maybe if they need new currency printed in a hurry.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Jul 2015 09:11

Greece has 36 Mirage 2ks. India should offer to buy at least half of them to ease their cash flow.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 Jul 2015 09:29

Jhujar wrote:Greece has 36 Mirage 2ks. India should offer to buy at least half of them to ease their cash flow.

They also have recently upgraded Type 209 Submarines. We could buy a couple. They are of no use to the Greeks, since their Navy's biggest challenge is stopping illegal migration.

Therein lies an opportunity for India. Greece could offer long term visas, with no questions asked, for Indians who are willing to pay.
Once inside Greece they can disappear anywhere in the US. It would be a lot cheaper for potential migrants, than paying larger amounts to dodgy agents for a dangerous boat trip. A million migrants paying say $ 5000 each would give Greece $ 5 Billion and India would probably get the same every year from their remittances.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 Jul 2015 11:33

Greek deal in sight as Germany bows to huge global pressure for debt relief

Germany is at last bowing to pressure as a chorus of countries and key institutions demand debt relief for Greece, a shift that could break the five-month stalemate and avert a potentially disastrous rupture of monetary union at this Sunday’s last-ditch summit.
In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 10 Jul 2015 12:01

^^^ Off topic (rant): I am sure the local communists in India, would now start chest thumping on how a "communist/socialist" Greece managed to stop an "Imperialistic" Germany on their tracks. And how communism won this "war" as well

.

niran · Post by **niran** » 10 Jul 2015 12:11

Dilbu wrote:Greek deal in sight as Germany bows to huge global pressure for debt relief
Germany is at last bowing to pressure as a chorus of countries and key institutions demand debt relief for Greece, a shift that could break the five-month stalemate and avert a potentially disastrous rupture of monetary union at this Sunday’s last-ditch summit.
In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight.

now i start to get the gist:
this has all been USD vs Euro all the way and as a bonus US got Cheen in a knot, my cheene friends tells me after Greek outstanding "NO" there was a roar amongst cheene online stock players

it is credit bond and 90% of the bond CCP bought git yer money quick or else

by Monday afternoon cheen bubble burst and US metal future traders are hospitalized laughing to their banks.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Jul 2015 15:40

Greek olive oil will come cheap! Greek tourism will benefit from lower costs for visitors like us,and Greece could also join the EurAsian Eco Union,the Russian sponsored EEU which India may become a part of. This huge swing in the other direction is what is giving the Yanquis mightmares ,who have used their clout to twist Frau Merkel's ahem,ahem.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 79265.html

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Jul 2015 16:07

So they had to bow to the Oiropeans after all. Bad mistake IMO. Since they are going to pay the money back they should have done it on their own terms (principal + small interest, not 13%). What kind of democracy is it where the govt conducts a referendum and then goes 180 degrees against it? Don't they get hanged for that?

Greek tourism will benefit from lower costs for visitors like us

The islands themselves got cheaper to buy, because they took away the subsidies for tourism.

OTOH, the Oiropeans are foolish to accept this. It's like accepting a ~~virus~~ Ghoda-e-Trojistan. And they have forgotten their Epics:

Bee whiyar oph Greeks Bearing Giphts or Brobojals

As I saw the numbers, the total loss is less than 150B, which is less than a few months of US or EU Treasury Mint operation. Less than a week of Pakistan Global Mint operation.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Jul 2015 21:52

niran wrote: now i start to get the gist:
this has all been USD vs Euro all the way

Bingo. You got it. In the world today there are only three assets, gold, oil and currencies. The paper currencies, so long admired and accepted are now in a war of self destruction. They will consume each other in an end battle of "I'm the last man standing but have lost all use as a unit of value". And in this war between Euro and Dollar, its in the interests of the USA to keep the current game going with minimal disruptions. Dollar as a currency is in its twilight of its life. It will fall and it is failing in its most basic of uses. Greek situation or Chinese one is just underlines the problem with the current system. A system built around the primacy of dollar. If you go back in history, you will be able to learn why the formation of Euro was necessary.

You have to wonder with some many interventions in the market like QE, ZIRP, Repo, reverse repo, ESF, TSLL etc. why has nothing worked?

From our perspective, we have to think what is big money doing? Its like we are waiting at the bus stop and there we just miss the bus. We think that another one will come. Soon a big crowd gathers as everyone is waiting for the bus, everyone hoping the bus will soon come. It takes a long time for it to sink in that another bus ain't coming along. And any bus that does come along wont be able to accommodate the number of people waiting at the bus stop. It will cause a riot. The best bet is to be at the beginning of the queue so that you get into the bus before the riot starts. Those who have travelled on suburban Mumbai locals will empathise. This is the mentality of a bank run. This is different from the big money. Big money guy is not used to be kept waiting. He owns the bus company and he knows there will not be another bus coming. They panic early unlike the little guy. This was the main reason why the governments all around the world stepped in to bail out the banks when there was an electronic bank run post Lehmann collapse. The big money was not prepared. Do you really think the big money is not prepared this time around? There are no markets left, just interventions. This crazy movement in the Chinese stock market was the big money panicking. They know there is no problem with Greece. If there was, there would have been a fall in Euro. There was no movement there.

Of course, that this for whatever you deem its worth.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 11 Jul 2015 07:29

has anyone seen Ray Dalio's youtube video on how economies work?

pretty good summary of EVERYTHING going around.

short point - greece needs to be able to print money to deleverage.

they cant do that right now with the euro.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 11 Jul 2015 07:56

Singha wrote: greece does have its ancient sea faring and entrepreneurial traditions but is resource poor, small population and .....

Funnily, so is switzerland, and taiwan and south korea.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 11 Jul 2015 16:48

short point - greece needs to be able to print money to deleverage.
they cant do that right now with the euro.

Exactly - this is about the only difference between the DECISIVE response of the US and EU to their own crises vs. the DITHERING response of Greece. They should also rename the country to United States of Greece and put up the slogan

In Ze US We Trust

on their new Made In Pakistan currency notes. A picture of Venus on the notes wouldnt' hurt, as the Face That Launched a 50 Billion Notes.

Accepting the Oiro without the uniform laws of Oirostan, is Taxation Without Representation. They need to kick the Oiro out.
Seriously, what they need to do is to issue a Drachma-denominated ~~Ulysses~~ Yelena Bond Issue with a Face Value equivalent of $200B, with priority for Greek citizens and diaspora to purchase them, and only through the central bank of Greece. Interest rate above what they can get for govt bonds elsewhere, and maybe a bit above what they can get for blue-chip corporate bonds.

Just like ABV&Co did in 1998 in response to the American/Oirostani "sanctions" that would have crushed India otherwise.

Then we shall see if the natural Patriotism (and greed) of the Greek diaspora will come to the rescue or not.

When I read Americans commenting on how Irresponsible The Greeks Are, and How One Should Always Pay Up One's Debts and Never Borrow What They Cannot Return, I have to

Remember 2008?

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 11 Jul 2015 17:37

where was the debt forgiveness in the US?

what about the shareholders and bond holders of GM, Chrysler, AIG, Lehman, Bear Sterns, etc. who got wiped out?

Finally, why did the US government (read that US taxpayers) end up earning a profit on the 2008 rescues, especially fannie mae, freddie mac?

And where is the ruined dollar from the resulting rescues and QEs?

I don't see how this can be compared to what has happen to Greece and the EU and their debt forgiveness of 100's of billions of dollars and at the same time ignore the results of Keynesian economics. How dumb can they get?

and most of all, horrifying when I think about it, why didn't I have the courage of my convictions and buy Ford when it was at a $1.50 a share in January 2009?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 11 Jul 2015 19:03

why didn't I have the courage of my convictions and buy Ford when it was at a $1.50 a share in January 2009?

Go EZ on urself. You didn't, for the same reason why you didn't buy Yahoo at $600 back ~2000. If Ford reached 1.50 in 2009, it can do so again, faster than you can say "Sell!" Some of their cars are good, but the basic mindset is unchanged. To quote someone who knows:

It's not that American car companies can't build cars that don't fall down after 3 years. It is that they PREFER to sell cars that do, so that stupid customers keep buying new cars every 4 years.

I happen to agree that they have all the technology and smart people they need to build outstanding cars that are as problem-free, as say, oh! The F-35.

If you look around, you will see that Honda is coming out with more and more late-gen hybrids, and soon maybe fuel-cell cars. I think they offer minivans now with hybrids. Toyota is expanding their hybrid line, Nissan has an excellent electric car... What has Ford done, once BO sold his stock in it? I think, gone back to pre-2009 Ford.

Another oil price hike is as certain as another Paki terror attack. And when that comes, Ford stock will dent the floor again.

Back to Greece, the US economy was saved by huge and continuing infusions of newly-minted paper currency. EZ way to reduce debt. And by keeping the interest down near zero. Neither of these has anything to do with responsible behavior either by the public or the government. If the US had to deal in a currency controlled by someone else.

(but we could always bomb anyone who controlled the currency back into the stone age.

)

All the heroics about the Fed making money, etc etc are based on printing paper money.

Yes, some innocent people lost out - like my next-door neighbors the very nice retired AA couple who lost their home. Their business of arranging loans to minority borrowers went bust because they could not get the promised lenders to actually make loans any more (all credit froze up), and they had no power to sue those lenders for breach of contract. Their own ARM just zoomed up and up, past 13%, when the overall loan rates were like 2%. BO and his government did zilch to help them (they did come out with 'programs', 3 years far too late). In January 2009 when we came back from India they were gone, evicted.

So much for the govt and its corrupt Goldman-Sachs appointees.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 11 Jul 2015 19:51

Meanwhile, Greece may avail of a bit of help from this gent:

http://www.ebrd.com/who-we-are/ebrd-pre ... barti.html

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Jul 2015 20:58

Snake-oil salesman G.Sachs just like one MM Singh,who also worked for years as a western bank babu.
We also know the insidious role played by PWC in the Satyam scam.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 81926.html
Greek debt crisis: Goldman Sachs could be sued for helping hide debts when it joined euro

Exclusive: A leading adviser to debt-riven countries has offered to help Athens recover some of the vast profits made by the investment bank
Jim Armitage
Saturday 11 July 2015

Goldman Sachs faces the prospect of potential legal action from Greece over the complex financial deals in 2001 that many blame for its subsequent debt crisis.

A leading adviser to debt-riven countries has offered to help Athens recover some of the vast profits made by the investment bank.

The Independent has learnt that a former Goldman banker, who has advised indebted governments on recovering losses made from complex transactions with banks, has written to the Greek government to advise that it has a chance of clawing back some of the hundreds of millions of dollars it paid Goldman to secure its position in the single currency.

The development came as Greece edged towards a last-minute deal with its creditors which will keep it from crashing out of the single currency.

Read more: • Tsipras tells creditors what he's prepared to do
• EU comes round to US demands to scrap Greek debt
• Athens blinks first, promises to 'immediately implement' reforms

The deal is based on fresh economic reform proposals submitted by Athens which bear a striking similarity to the creditors’ offer rejected by the Greek people in a referendum last Sunday – sparking claims that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has effectively executed a huge U-turn in order to avoid a catastrophic “Grexit”.

Greece managed to keep within the strict Maastricht rules for eurozone membership largely because of complex financial deals created by the investment bank which critics say disguised the extent of the country’s outstanding debts.

Goldman Sachs is said to have made as much as $500m from the transactions known as “swaps”. It denies that figure but declines to say what the correct one is.

The banker who stitched it together, Oxford-educated Antigone Loudiadis, was reportedly paid up to $12m in the year of the deal. Now Jaber George Jabbour, who formerly designed swaps at Goldman, has told the Greek government in a formal letter that it could “right historical wrongs as part of [its] plan to reduce Greece’s debt”.

Mr Jabbour successfully assisted Portugal in renegotiating complex trades naively done with London banks during the financial crisis. His work helped trigger a parliamentary inquiry and cost many senior officials and politicians their jobs. It also triggered major compensation payments by banks to the Portuguese taxpayer.

Mr Jabbour, who now runs Ethos Capital Advisors, has also helped expose other cases including allegations against Goldman Sachs and Société Générale over their dealings with Libya relating to financial transactions that left the country’s taxpayers billions of dollars out of pocket. Both banks deny wrongdoing.

Based on publicly available information, he believes the size of the profit Goldman made on the transactions was unreasonable. Scrutiny and analysis of the documents and email exchanges could give Greece grounds to seek compensation and assess if the deals were executed for the sole purpose of concealing the country’s debts.

Antigone (Addy) Loudiadis

Greece’s membership of the euro gave it access to billions of easy credit which it was then incapable of paying back, leading to its current crisis. Lenders took its euro membership as a stamp of creditworthiness, but the true state of its economy was far less healthy.

Under Ms Loudiadis’s guidance, Goldman swapped debt issued by Greece in dollars and yen for euros which were priced at a historical exchange rate that made the debt look smaller than it actually was. The swaps reportedly made about 2 per cent of Greece’s debt disappear from its national accounts.

The size and structure of the deal enabled the bank to charge a far bigger fee than is usual in swap transactions, and Goldman persuaded Greece not to test the transaction with competitors to ensure it was getting good value for money.

Such deals were not uncommon among smaller countries attempting to enter the eurozone club, but they were stopped by the EU economic statistics agency Eurostat in 2008. Eurostat has said Greece did not report the Goldman Sachs transactions in 2008, when it and other countries were told to restate their accounts.

Two of the men in charge of the debt management agency of Greece at the time have argued the department did not understand what it was buying and lacked the expertise to judge the risks or costs.

One, Christoforos Sardelis, told Bloomberg news agency that Ms Loudiadis offered one swap which had what is known as a “teaser rate”, or three-year grace period. But the Greek official realised three months after signing the deal that it was far more complicated than he first thought – a situation exacerbated by the 9/11 attacks’ downward impact on global interest rates. While Goldman reworked the deal, Greece continued to lose heavily.

Read more: • Will Greek troubles spill over to UK?
• • The Greece debt crisis explained in less than 100 words
• EU comes round to US demands to scrap Greek debt
• European Commissioner promises 'there is a way out'
• Tsipras promises to 'immediately implement' reforms

Saul Haydon Rowe, a partner at Turing Experts, a team of former bankers who advise in court cases involving bank derivatives, said: “Greece would have to unpick the trades completely and look into what advice was given, and how much Goldman might have expected to make over the course of the transaction.

“For a legal action to go ahead, Greece would have to show that Goldman Sachs said something it knew was untrue or which it did not care was true or not.”

Goldman said its transactions were in accordance with Eurostat rules. It said they reduced Greece’s foreign denominated debts by €2.37bn, or 1.6 per cent in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, adding that they had “minimal effect on the country’s overall fiscal situation.”

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 12 Jul 2015 06:17

TSJones wrote:where was the debt forgiveness in the US?

Billions of dollars went from investors to negative equity homeowners in the form of interest rate cuts and principal forgiveness (i.e. debt relief). It has been happening for the last 5 years and still happening today. Not 100% of money that was provided to GM is accounted for.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2015 07:39

Grexit looms

This is all so that some uber-dramatique deal will be struck just before markets open in the US and the EU and Goldman Sachs can cash in as the market opens.

A plan drafted by Berlin's finance ministry, with the backing of Angela Merkel, laid out two stark options for Greece: either the government submits to drastic measures such as placing €50bn of its assets in a trust fund to pay off its debts, and have Brussels take over its public administration, or agree to a "time-out" solution where it would leave the eurozone.

Matt O'Brien
✔ @ObsoleteDogma

This is Germany's plan—all of it—to make Greece sell €50bn of "valuable assets" or leave the euro for at least 5 yrs pic.twitter.com/bDODJ7VX83

Qn: Why does "leaving the EU" serve as an alternative to providing the pound of flesh? I would think leaving the EU is an escape?

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 12 Jul 2015 09:27

Deans wrote:
Jhujar wrote:Greece has 36 Mirage 2ks. India should offer to buy at least half of them to ease their cash flow.
They also have recently upgraded Type 209 Submarines. We could buy a couple. They are of no use to the Greeks, since their Navy's biggest challenge is stopping illegal migration.

Therein lies an opportunity for India. Greece could offer long term visas, with no questions asked, for Indians who are willing to pay.
Once inside Greece they can disappear anywhere in the US. It would be a lot cheaper for potential migrants, than paying larger amounts to dodgy agents for a dangerous boat trip. A million migrants paying say $ 5000 each would give Greece $ 5 Billion and India would probably get the same every year from their remittances.

They already do. I remember seeing this about 2 years before. If you have money to buy their increasingly cheap unoccupied homes, they were giving free citizenship (or rather whatever color of card they use there) with Schegen permit too, I believe.