Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-July 10, 2015

[Karan M]

I wasnt accusing you specifically, took your post as a reference point only. Its the general narrative I was referring to - "Congis, IFS folks, leftists, Suhasini Haidar, Kc Singh are "traitors""...

Quacks like a duck...

Thats a worthy question to ask. My hypothesis is that its the intellectual adroitness of the respective strands of mass politics. Post independence, the mass politics represented by Congress appropriated a Left-centre intellectual heritage, and it chose wisely. From Nehru to PC Mohalanobis to Irfan Habib to Ram Guha - the intellectual heft is unimpeachable, even if one doesnt agree intellectually.

Intellectual heft, LOL. A bunch of parasites who made sure their fellow parasites enjoyed access to power and didn't allow any contrary opinion. The self referencing praise by their fellow leftists hardly counts as any sort of objective reference to "intellectual heft". A bunch of crooks who cooked up stories, deliberately subverted the truth & made polices which kept India in trouble.

The "right wing" strand, on the other hand, picked, well, nothing. The RSS/BJS/BJP strand, the most successful one in mass politics, vacillated between one woolly headed notion to another - they didnt pick Rajaji, not BR Shenoy, they dont even like Arun Shourie! Socially they represent a level of retrogression that is way off modern charts. Economically, they have graduated from "gandhian socialism" (whatever that meant!) to somewhere close to Sitaram YEchury!

ROTFL, the right wing is clear about what it wants, a strong India & has a robust internal debate mechanism & is confident enough to let cynical social climbers go their ways as versus giving them undue advantage. The rest of your rubbish is just the usual "throw enough sh!te and hope it sticks". Fact is the left is thoroughly discredited in India and day by day, it becomes more and more irrelevant. With its criminal control of the Indian state slowly being chipped away, its critics are getting more and more space to voice their opinions, despite the efforts of the left to continue to control the discourse. Soon it will resemble the Mughal empire in its waning days, a bunch of good for nothing courtiers living off the grace of the modern day equivalent of the hindutva Marathas.

Your views are yours, thats fine (even though Nandy won the Fukuoka Prize and was voted as one of the top 100 public intellectuals globally). But I agree with the "echo chamber" theory. There is quite a bit of that. But the only way to break that is through solid scholarship that is superior, not by complaining about the echo chamber. It certainly doesnt get done by putting in rank invalids (like Smriti Irani) to wage an intellectual battle

ROTFL, create an echo chamber lopsided against ones political opponents, and then claim they should not complain about the lopsidedness of the chamber and play by crooked rules to get the dubious acclaim of being some stupid intellectual (who isn't). I'd rather take an earthy Smriti Irani over some gasbag Nandy anyday.

Anyways, this is OT, so my last post.

Oh thank goodness for that.

[Karan M]

I agree, it didnt, because we kept it from becoming a matter of routine. Random terror attacks have no lasting economic impact,

Oh sure, the loss of life, disruption have no economic impact nor do they have any impact on the psyche of the nation either.

but if they become routine it starts scaring away investors.

Ah, yes, only regular terror attacks scare away investors. Random non routine ones are A-ok.

Which is why the reaction to a random terror event is not to ratchet up war threats, but to prepare internal capacities.

Yes, become a police state and put a chowki on every corner.

nd the DG-level talks etc is the right approach, we should keep that going.

Chai biscoot zindabad

The issue is of trying to pull off spectacular summitry, between PMs, between NSAs etc. Realistically there isnt much to talk to the Pakis about, barring terror (which they dont want to talk about anyways). Pitching talks at high level, media-driven events makes for inevitable disappointments and poltiical noise.

So there isn't much to talk about but lets talk.
What a strategery.

[Arjun]

As far as I am concerned, the over-riding objective for India should be churn out a 15 year period of 8%+ growth. To facilitate that, we need peace at our borders (so that foreign investors are not spooked by "tensions" between nuclear neighbours), and management of terrorism inside Indian territory.

In my view, low level engagement with Pak to keep the world fobbed off, along with strong internal security measures to detect and neutralise attacks serve the purpose.

Why only 15 years? We need that kind of growth for the next several decades until we can reclaim GDP leadership.

But that does not necessarily imply that we cannot use hard options. Israel is probably the best-performing economy in West Asia - it has had to deal with terror of a much higher level than India and a nuclear-armed enemy (Iran) even more dangerous. And yet investors flock to Israel.

Israel, India, China will be leaders because of the quality of their people.

The longer term threat to the quality of Indian citizenry and its ability to aim for greatness is primarily from Islamism, Christianism and Leftism.

[somnath]

For example - one can prove that Republicans are likely to be more 'nationalist' and believe in US exceptionalism than Democrats. Backup is available here: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... -greatest/

Come on, you pick on a snap survey that doesnt even prove your own point! The survey shows there has been 15% decline in the # of Republicans who think US is the greatest country on earth. And this has no reference to whether people think someone is "nationalist" or not (unless you deduce that those who think US is one of the greatest countries are all "non nationalists"!). As you purport to be the representative of the "Right", this epitomises the issue with the Right, a lack of basic intellectual rigour.

As a random instance, a hardline Republican President launched wars that pushed the US into an economic crisis that it still hasnt comlpetely pulled out of. A leftist (by American standards) restored a semblance of balance to the twin deficits problem, somewhat recovering towards the direction of the levels left by the last "leftist" President, who left behind a large budget surplus. Who's more "nationalist" for the US?!

But actual IQ is determined by more objective methods.

Do so, and establish that Sudarshan Rao has more IQ than Ram! Till then, we will take available proxies - whats the mass (and intellectual) accpetance of Rao versus Ram! Ram's books open to critical acclaim, and are amongst best sellers in the non-fiction category in India. What does RAo have?

Anyways, OT here.

[eklavya]

India's gross capital formation (as % of GDP) has varied in the range of 31-39% over the last 5 years:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS

Foreign Direct Investment (as % of GDP) has varied in the range of 1.3-2.0% over the last 5 years:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX. ... V.WD.GD.ZS

A lot of this FDI is actually benaami investment through Mauritius, etc by Indians.

Fact is that growth in India depends on investment made by Indian companies and people. FDI is a marginal driver of investment and growth in India.

Given the attractions of India's vast market, most of this FDI will come regardless of the situation on the borders.

A certain type of Paki-appeaser trots out the FDI argument as an excuse for turning the other cheek to Paki terrorism; these arguments are bogus.

[KLNMurthy]

...
So there isn't much to talk about but lets talk.
What a strategery.

Lot of stuff has been said on all sides about why agree in Ufa to talk in the first place, since "everyone" knew what would happen. Congis ridiculed Modi for supposedly thinking talks would produce a "rabbit out of a hat." Pakis denounced him for having pretend talks, or sneered at him for agreeing to talks for fear of umreeka.

How about we just take Modi and Sushma Swaraj at their word for a change? I think their words are in fact "talks for the sake of talks" and I don't think that idea should invite any kind of contempt.

Modi has said time and again, two things: (a) he is by nature an optimist and (b) he wants India to have friendly relations with all including pakistan, but he would never agree to India being subservient to anyone.

Sushma Swaraj has said, in effect, that door will always be open for talks, if they didn't work out this time, there can be other times, such is the nature of the journey.

Ill-wishers have lost no time in painting both leaders as small people, who are talking big talk and telling lies, because that's what small people do. But let us do them the courtesy of taking them at face value here.

Taken together, the statements show an idealism on the part of Modi sarkar. State the vision (friends with all, subservient to none) clearly, and keep working away at it, believing that, if not today, tomorrow something will open up, something will change, to make that vision a reality. But all the time, respect yourself and hold on to your own convictions and policies. Not trying to impress anyone, not making a pretense to appease umreeka or some other power, just proceeding in this way because that is our belief and vision. And keep smiling.

For too long, we have confused incoherent sentimentality with "idealism"--everybody is good (even if the evidence overwhelmingly shows some are quite bad), let us just fall over and slobber over someone who is only bent on destroying or ruining us. We go through fake "love" for pakis, which is only the flip side of hate. There is no rhyme or reason to any of it.

Modi's way feels strange and awkward, something only a fool would undertake (if we are not trying to fool someone, or trying to simply get something out of them, what is the point of even talking to pakistan?). But that's only because we have lived all this time in a very cynical universe, where we are not good because we believe in it, but only pretend to be good because we are too weak and scared to be otherwise.

Modi's foreign policy ethic is to adapt Satya-yug values and vision to Kali-yug. It may be doomed to failure, and Kali-yug may win in the end, but in the meantime it is a heroic vision worthy of Vivekananda and Aurobindo. I actually think he doesn't hate pakistan or anyone else, which I can't fathom since I have deep hatred for pakistan. It may just be because he is a better and wiser man than me.

[Arjun]

Come on, you pick on a snap survey that doesnt even prove your own point! The survey shows there has been 15% decline in the # of Republicans who think US is the greatest country on earth. And this has no reference to whether people think someone is "nationalist" or not (unless you deduce that those who think US is one of the greatest countries are all "non nationalists"!). As you purport to be the representative of the "Right", this epitomises the issue with the Right, a lack of basic intellectual rigour.

What matters here, my dear leftist comrade, is the difference in percentage between Republicans and Democrats and not the difference between time periods.

Also- historically belief in exceptionalism has been associated with nationalism which has a specific definition associated with it in the West.

Do so, and establish that Sudarshan Rao has more IQ than Ram!

Obviously we can only establish overall characteristics of a group. We cannot determine the case regarding individuals...but there is no question whatsoever in my mind that on the average, leftists would have lower IQ than the right (in India, not in the West).

[somnath]

India's gross capital formation (as % of GDP) has varied in the range of 31-39% over the last 5 years:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS

Foreign Direct Investment (as % of GDP) has varied in the range of 1.3-2.0% over the last 5 years:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX. ... V.WD.GD.ZS

A lot of this FDI is actually benaami investment through Mauritius, etc by Indians.

Fact is that growth in India depends on investment made by Indian companies and people. FDI is a marginal driver of investment and growth in India.

Congratulations, you got the trend, even if not the data. The statistic to compare would be total investments as % of GDP (~30-35%), and how much of that is financed by FDI (typically 2-3% of GDP, or around 8-10% of total investments). So yes, FDI is not the biggest pie in the total level of investments into India.

But, in your enthusiasm, you dont realise something else. This FDI (and equity FII) represent the crucial capital flows that allows India run a current account deficit, which we do. Sans these foreign flows, INR will be under greater stress, devaluing the ccy and exacerbating our inflation problem (as India is a net importer, a cheaper ccy fuels inflation). We would then have to depend on more expensive sources of capital - NRI deposits (that come @ a fixed, and high, interest cost), or in emergencies, commercial loans and IMF in extreme cases.

Plus, FDI brings with it network externalities like technology and market access that doemstic investments by itself wont be able to. Which is why every govt since PVNRs dpend such a disproportionate time on attracting FDI!

Given the attractions of India's vast market, most of this FDI will come regardless of the situation on the borders.

the only way to test that hypothesis out is through data. The only significant data point we have is Op Parakram, where armies were arrayed for nearly a year. If you remember (or go through the new archives), the point at which ABV decided to pull back was when trael advisories started being issued, and IT companies started complaining about customers pulling away incremental contracts.

Obviously we can only establish overall characteristics of a group. We cannot determine the case regarding individuals...but there is no question whatsoever in my mind that on the average, leftists would have lower IQ than the right (in India, not in the West).

You think so?!Thats empirical evidence!

[Arjun]

Obviously we can only establish overall characteristics of a group. We cannot determine the case regarding individuals...but there is no question whatsoever in my mind that on the average, leftists would have lower IQ than the right (in India, not in the West).

You think so?!Thats empirical evidence!

Emperical evidence lies in the education and other background characteristics of the supporters for the right in India - that was published in various post-poll surveys after 2014 LS elections. Not too hard to dig out this data (even a leftist like you should be able to manage )

[eklavya]

As per the link, FDI is 1.3%-2.0% of GDP, not 2-3%. Just because the facts don't support your argument, shouldn't mean you start fabricating data Somnath.

Bank deposits are the cheapest source of capital. Bonds are more expensive, and equity the most expensive. You obviously don't know much about finance Somnath.

[Ramesh]

Is it STFU Pakistan thread or economy thread?

[SSridhar]

Pakistan contacts UN over cancellation of NSA-level talks - PTI

Pakistan has informed the UN about the last-minute cancellation of the NSA-level talks with India to take the international community into confidence over the Kashmir issue and the situation at the LoC, a media report said on Thursday.

Immediately after cancellation of the meeting between the National Security Advisors of the two countries, Pakistan's permanent representative at the UN Maleeha Lodhi was instructed to contact the UN leadership to discuss the rejection of dialogue by India, Dawn reported.

"UN deputy secretary general Jan Eliasson was briefed in detail on Monday by Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the UN Maleeha Lodhi about India's setting of preconditions for the talks between the National Security Advisers of the two countries which led to the cancellation of the meeting," the paper quoted officials saying.

The UN was contacted as part of a decision to take the international community into confidence over Kashmir and the situation at the Line of Control (LoC), it said.

Eliasson was informed that it was India that had reneged on the agreement reached by the Pakistani and Indian Prime Ministers in the Russian city of Ufa on discussing all issues outstanding between the two countries.

The deputy secretary general was also told that Pakistan decided against sending its NSA Sartaj Aziz to Delhi to meet his counterpart Ajit Doval because it found the Indian condition of not inviting Kashmiri separatists for consultations unacceptable.

"Consultations with Kashmiris, who are an integral part of the Kashmir issue, are essential to evolving a peaceful solution," the UN official was told.

The talks were called off because of differences over the agenda proposed by Islamabad and a planned meeting with the Hurriyat leadership with Aziz.

The meeting between Lodhi and Eliasson was followed by a statement by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Tuesday regretting the cancellation of the talks.

"The Secretary-General reiterates his call to both countries to continue to address their differences through dialogue," the UN said in a statement said.

Earlier, Pakistan had decided that appropriate steps will be taken to highlight the issue of Kashmir and alleged violations by India of the 2003 ceasefire agreement.

Lodhi also raised the issue of ceasefire violations along the LoC.

Pakistan claims that since June, Indian troops have violated the ceasefire more than 130 times on the LoC and Working Boundary, as a result of which 16 Pakistanis have been killed and over 60 others injured.

[member_20385]

http://www.hudson.org/content/researcha ... _vol15.pdf

The Next Decade of Jihadism in Pakistan
By Tufail Ahmad

Just started reading it. Looks promising.

[Karan M]

Lot of stuff has been said on all sides about why agree in Ufa to talk in the first place, since "everyone" knew what would happen. Congis ridiculed Modi for supposedly thinking talks would produce a "rabbit out of a hat." Pakis denounced him for having pretend talks, or sneered at him for agreeing to talks for fear of umreeka.

I was ridiculing the claim by the gent earlier who claimed there is nothing much to talk about with pak, yet we must talk. Thats just hot air. Modi and co OTOH are not doing chai-biscoot. It probably included a bunch of hard nosed messages given to TSP about what needs to be done. Whether that'll work out is a different thing.

[somnath]

As per the link, FDI is 1.3%-2.0% of GDP, not 2-3%. Just because the facts don't support your argument, shouldn't mean you start fabricating data Somnath.

Bank deposits are the cheapest source of capital. Bonds are more expensive, and equity the most expensive. You obviously don't know much about finance Somnath.

Hmm, this year we are expecting 40-50 billion dollars of FDI, GDP of 2 trillion, in other words 2-2.5% of gdp. But that is just quibbling, you obviously missed the gist of my point, ie, it is not large in the context of investments, but in the context of external account balances and network externalities.

And yes, they say that little learning is a dangerous thing. Debt financing is sometimes cheaper than equity, for the enterprise borrowing the money. From an external account perspective, there is no fixed obligation of foreign ccy attached with an equity flow. On the other hand, and NRI deposit of 100 dollars, needs to be paid back after 1-5 years, with a fixed interest rate. You should go for basic 101econ classes before taunting others

[shaun]

"Some one " is hungry again !! ..OT

http://www.hudson.org/content/researcha ... _vol15.pdf

The Next Decade of Jihadism in Pakistan
By Tufail Ahmad

Just started reading it. Looks promising.

Thanks Neeraj

The concluding part is what we are propagating here for so many years

"Over the next decade, jihadism’s prospects in South Asia will be shaped to a large extent by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) that backs them. The ISI’s role in creating and nurturing jihadism in South Asia was irrefutably made clear by Adnan Rasheed, a former Pakistan Air Force commando and now a top-ranking Taliban commander, in a May 2013 interview with the Taliban magazine Azan. Rasheed had been imprisoned following an assassination attempt on Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf; however, Taliban militants freed him in a daring jailbreak in April 2012. In the interview, Rasheed described how he came to the realization thatthe terrorist group Jaish-e-Muhammad was a sub-unit of ISI. As he stated: “[It] was revealed to me that neither [JeM chief] Masood Azhar nor [militant commander] Haji Abul Jabbar was officially appointed Emir for Pakistan [by Mullah Omar, as Adnan Rasheed was led to believe while in the PAF];they were working under the ISI. So, I went to my Emir of Idara[t-ul-Pakistan, a jihadi unit in PAF], Dr. Y and told him that, ‘Brother, we are wronged! There is no difference between us and Jaish-e-Muhammad. We are soldiers in uniform and they are soldiers without uniform. How strange it is that we follow them and they take instruction from our institutions—the ISI!

Jihadism’s appeal runs deep in the Pakistani military. The Afghan jihad of the 1980s, the Kashmir jihad of the 1990s, and the jihad of the post-9/11 era have all had an immeasurable impact on recruitment into the Pakistani military. In the wake of the anti-Soviet war, anti-Western Pakistani sentiment rose to its zenith. Many of the soldiers recruited during these past three decades were exposed to and deeply influenced by jihadist ideology. Their continued rise to senior positions in the military will likely strengthen the hands of already serving pro-jihadist officers wielding considerable influence on the country’s foreign policies.

The ISI has demonstrated that it is unwilling to repeal its support for jihadist organizations; in fact, in 2010, when U.S. drones began targeting the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,the ISI shifted the network to a new base of operations. 94 Almost all leading Pakistani newspapers have called for holding the ISI accountable for terrorist activities in the region. 95 The ISI regards itself as the guardian of the Islamic State of Pakistan. As a result, in the next decade, it is unlikely that the ISI, will either stop supporting jihadism or obstructing the efforts of Pakistani officials from fostering good ties with India. The machinations of the ISI and pervasiveness of political Islamism that will inevitably follow will prove to be an enormous obstacle to prosperity and democracy in Pakistan"

so they have a jihadi unit in PAF ...expect them attempting soosai mission with their bandars !!

[SSridhar]

so they have a jihadi unit in PAF ...

Shaun, the entire armed forces is already a jihadi unit with the enlightening motto "Iman, Taqwah, Jihad fi Sabilillah" given to them by Zia, a far cry from the earlier "Ittehad, Yaqeen aur Tanzeem" (Unity, Faith and Discipline).

[SSridhar]

Pak court orders arrest of ex-PM Gilani - ToI

A Pakistani court on Thursday issued arrest warrant for former PM Yousuf Raza Gilani in a corruption case.

The anti-corruption court issued the warrant against Gilani for his alleged involvement in the National Insurance Limited Company (NICL) scam.

The charges carry a jail term of up to seven years as well as fines.

[amit]

Sridhar,

It would be nice to hear you POV on the latest display of tactical brilliance of "informing" the UN about "how India called off the talks"? I mean how did that UN official sit through the meeting with a straight face? He must be well trained in the diplomatic arts!

[SSridhar]

^Absolutely. The UN has got nothing, nothing at all, to do with the talks or their calling off. Normally, they squeal to their masters, the US but now they didn't do that. Instead, they went to the UN. The economic downturn of China must also be adding to their anxiety, apart from the UAE fiasco. We must also remember that the IAF contingent from Indradanush landed at Taif and the air was expectant with some joint exercise sooner than later. Pakistan is really feeling the heat now, IMO. They are panicking, it appears to me.

Off to watch the GSLV launch.

[A_Gupta]

Tufail Ahmed's essay has been posted here before, but I wanted to quote a couple of sentences:
http://indiafacts.co.in/raza-rumi-when- ... is-murder/

To the Indian youths: have the patience of a Buddhist monk; do not expect Modi to deliver a permanent peace; Modi is not a superman. The Pakistan conflict is rooted in Pakistan’s religious identity and cannot be resolved as long as it exists.

[Altair]

^Absolutely. The UN has got nothing, nothing at all, to do with the talks or their calling off. Normally, they squeal to their masters, the US but now they didn't do that. Instead, they went to the UN. The economic downturn of China must also be adding to their anxiety, apart from the UAE fiasco. We must also remember that the IAF contingent from Indradanush landed at Taif and the air was expectant with some joint exercise sooner than later. Pakistan is really feeling the heat now, IMO. They are panicking, it appears to me.

Off to watch the GSLV launch.

The highlighted part has caused super massive takleef to the Pakees. Reason as cited in few videos in utube was UAE with modern Dubai was less Islamic than the caretaker of Holy Mosques. Even the Highly Islamic KSA has fallen for kommoonal Modi.

[Falijee]

Pakistani envoys to inform host countries about Indian hand in terrorism: FO

ISLAMABAD: Foreign Office (FO) spokesman Qazi Khalilullah on Thursday said that Pakistan's Pakistan's ambassadors stationed abroad have been instructed to inform their host countries regarding India's involvement[*] in promoting terrorist activities in Pakistan.

[*] As one Paki reader sarcastically commented:

Informing the host countries will be the easy part. Getting them to believe it is another story.

The spokesman further added that currently there is no proposal under consideration for a meeting between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi.

Furthermore, the FO spokesman said that Pakistan has issued a travel advisory for Pakistanis to avoid traveling to Middle Eastern and African countries as they are confronting an internal strife by non-state actors.

"In view of the prevailing security situation in some middle eastern and African countries, the ministry of foreign affairs wishes to advise Pakistanis to avoid non-essential travel to such countries,"[*] Khalilullah said.

[*] Does this cover travel to Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Saudi, where Indian Diplomatic offensive and/or Modiji's visit is turning the tide against the Pakis

Expressing concern over the security of Pakistani diplomats in Afghanistan, the spokesman said that it is the responsibility of the Afghan government to ensure security of the Pakistani mission and its personnel.[*]

Not, if they indulge in activities unbecoming of a diplomatic mission.

[K Mehta]

Do the words "dehati aurat" apply here?

[SSridhar]

Naveed-II captured - ToI

Army and police have managed to capture another terrorist alive in Jammu and Kashmir.

The terrorist was captured alive in Jammu and Kashmir's Rafiabad after an encounter.
Four terrorists were killed in the encounter.

Security forces are questioning the captured terrorist.

Arrested terrorist has been identified as 22-year-old Sajjad Ahmed, who hails from Muzaffargarh in south west Pakistan.

This is the second instance of a Pakistani terrorist being captured alive in a month.

Earlier, LeT terrorist Mohammed Naved Yakub was captured alive during a terror strike in Udhampur.

Naved Yakub, a resident of Pakistan, made a confessional statement before a magistrate on Wednesday in Jammu.

Under tight security, Naved, in his early 20s, was brought before a magistrate in Jammu where the judge asked him whether he was giving the confessional statement under any duress or voluntarily, official sources said.

[Tuvaluan]

As far as I am concerned, the over-riding objective for India should be churn out a 15 year period of 8%+ growth. To facilitate that, we need peace at our borders (so that foreign investors are not spooked by "tensions" between nuclear neighbours), and management of terrorism inside Indian territory.

Utter Nonsense to pretend that a higher rate of growth will eliminate security threats. So let us recap your "argument", shall we?

1. grow 8% but that needs peace at our borders
2. peace at our border requires talking to pakistan
3. talking to pakistan requires management of terrorism in pakistan.

So basically with the claim of "growing at 8%", India needs to allow its internal security to deteriorate...let us say this is a "reasonable" stance just for the sake of argument.

Here are a couple of other facts that you have ignored:
1.Pakistan (and China) can game India and raise the stakes because "India likes its 8% growth rate", which then teaches them that they can up the ante with terrorism and creating internal disruption, because they know India will continue to "talk"
2. China will also continue to provide more dangerous WMD to pakistan to target India because they will both game that India's response will be limited.
3. These foreign investors are from the same countries, like USA and UK, that armed and aided pakistan and yelled "nuclear flashpoint" to ensure India gets boxed in a corner..we have seen this being played over and over again while jokers in New Delhi were repeating the same stuff that you are, even as they trashed the economy completely...no 8% growth rate was happening either, making their "pakistan strategy" utter bollocks...and now we have you here selling the same snake oil. well done.

If India continues the same cr@p as MMS did, and "focussed on 8% growth rate", their counterplay will be to say "pakistan may be a sh!thole we can destroy your 8% growth with a thermonuclear cruise missile that China gave us along with a couple of submarines. In fact, the pakis recently demonstrated that they have gamed India exactly in this manner, during all the noise post Gurdaspur.

You entire "argument" is based on the notion that China and Pakistan will sit with their thumbs up their butts and not respond after they game India's priorities. So your argument is basically bogus for the most part, but it is not your fault, since this is the same half-baked "strategery" India's "strategeric community" in New Delhi has been feeding us for decades.

An 8% growth rate is certainly necessary for India to be able to gain the muscle to play a larger game, but the tactic of "talking while we grow" tactic is not the only one, as is being claimed by vested interests in New Delhi. The current regime is playing such a game by trying to build as many bilateral relations and new security arrangement instead of lazy-ass and stupid tactic of pretending that multilateral "internal community" organizations will take India's side once they are given sufficient evidence, just like it was being done with pakistan.

[SSridhar]

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could become the world’s third-biggest - DT

A new report by two American think tanks asserts that Pakistan may be building 20 nuclear warheads annually and could have the world’s third-largest nuclear stockpile within a decade.

The report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center concludes that Pakistan is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities because of fear of India, also a nuclear power. The report – which will be released on Thursday, says Pakistan is far outpacing India in the development of nuclear warheads.

Analysts estimated that Pakistan has about 120 nuclear warheads, while India has about 100. In the coming years, the report states, Pakistan’s advantage could grow dramatically because it has a large stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be used to quickly produce low-yield nuclear devices.

India has far larger stockpiles of plutonium, which is needed to produce high-yield warheads, than Pakistan does. But the report says India appears to be using most of its plutonium to produce domestic energy. Pakistan could have at least 350 nuclear weapons within five to 10 years, the report concludes.

Pakistan would then probably possess more nuclear weapons than any country except the United States and Russia, which each have thousands of the bombs. “The growth path of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, enabled by existing infrastructure, goes well beyond the assurances of credible minimal deterrence provided by Pakistani officials and analysts after testing nuclear devices,” the report states.

Pakistani military officials were not available to comment on the report when it was made available to journalists on Wednesday. Western officials and analysts have struggled for years to get an accurate assessment of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. Several Pakistani analysts questioned the findings of the report, saying it is based on a faulty assumption that Pakistan is using all of its existing stockpiles of fissile material to make nuclear weapons.

Mansoor Ahmed – a nuclear expert at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, said he suspects that a more accurate assessment of Pakistan’s capability is that it can develop no more than 40 to 50 new warheads over the next several years. Ahmed - however, doesn’t dispute that Pakistan’s military is seeking to expand its nuclear capabilities.

“This report is overblown,” said Ahmed, who was recently named a nuclear security fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. “However – what the world must understand is that nuclear weapons are part of Pakistan’s belief system. It’s a culture that has been built up over the years because [nuclear weapons] have provided a credible deterrence against external aggression.”

France has about 300 warheads and the United Kingdom has about 215, according to the Federation of American Scientists. China has approximately 250. The report was written by Toby Dalton, co-director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program, and Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center.

Pakistan is believed to use plutonium as well as highly enriched uranium to create nuclear warheads. Dalton noted that Pakistan recently added a fourth plutonium production reactor at its Khushab Nuclear Complex. “We assume, maybe correctly, maybe inaccurately, with the fuel coming out of the four reactors, they are processing it as rapidly as possible to get the plutonium out,” Dalton said.

India and Pakistan – which have fought three major wars – became declared nuclear powers in 1998. Since then, Western leaders have been increasingly alarmed about the potential for a nuclear exchange between the rivals. India has adopted a no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons. Pakistani leaders have repeatedly declined to take a similar stance, saying they might be forced to resort to using the weapons should India’s larger army ever invade Pakistan.

India views nuclear weapons as a political tool, a prestige item, not something you use on a battlefield, Krepon said. In Pakistan, he said, nuclear weapons are seen as “things you have to be willing to use” to guarantee stability. But Krepon and Dalton said that there was still time for Pakistan to slow down the development of its nuclear arsenal. If it does, they said, the international community should consider what steps it can take to recognize it as a responsible nuclear state. {Aha, now I get it. This is all a prelude to accord the same status as India by the US. The Cold War warriors who belabour under the impression that it is Pakistan's inferior status and its fear of a much larger India which might engage Pakistan in a pincer movement with Afghainstan, are the root causes of Pakistan's behaviour and throwing more goodies at it would solve the problem.}

[Tuvaluan]

The arms control blowhards like Krepon and the rest of them at Arms Control Wonk have been throwing out random numbers for paki nukes which is usually Indian nukes + a few hundred, so they can pretend pakistan not only as nuclear parity but can demolish India many times over.

As the ahole Krepon states "India views nuclear weapons as a political tool, a prestige item, not something you use on a battlefield" -- seems to be based on India's stance from the Clinton days around the time of the Kargil war, as some americans have claimed. So these guys are motivated to provide Pakistan (even if it has no basis in reality), with a larger arsenal than India, so India does not get any ideas about taking on their pet rabid dog.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ Pakistan is doing India's work. The foreign countries that think more than 2 minutes about Pakistan's complaints will read the Ufa statement clearly and ask, why isn't Pakistan willing to talk about terrorism?

As to the economic debate above, IMO, it is better conducted in some other thread.

[Patni]

HA! I look forward to western think tank report claiming Paki arsenal is going to be larger then American in 5 years!

[Tuvaluan]

The arms control crowd only needs to maintain the lie that it is a few hundred more than India -- America is not about to whittle its own numbers down into the hundreds yet.

[sudhan]

So, the wily Bhindians launched a raakit.. Time to launch ours and claim it as a success..

Time to activate all the ISPR pasand drones to write articles on how India does not have toilets and how they should shut up and build toilets and leave the spacey stuff to TFTAs

[somnath]

Utter Nonsense to pretend that a higher rate of growth will eliminate security threats. So let us recap your "argument", shall we?

Actually, that is correct. Faster our growth, bigger will be our gross national power differentials with PAk (and narrower with China). And more resources available to spend on defence. There is usually no panacea for any problem, but fast growth comes close.

As Adm Mike Mullen said in the context of the US
Actually the way I said it (the US debt) was — and I still believe this — that it’s the single biggest threat to our national security.

http://fortune.com/2012/05/10/adm-mike- ... -security/

So basically with the claim of "growing at 8%", India needs to allow its internal security to deteriorate

Not at all. Internal security isnt about crying war all the time, or heroic performances on Arnab Goswami's show. Its about building capacities to detect and prevent terror attacks. Also take all actions, including diplomatic to support the security apparatus.

There is never a single point strategy. There will need to be a basket of strategies to deal with the issue of Pakistan while we concentrate on growth. If there is any scenario where a "hot" LoC is a better option on a sustained basis, lets try that out!

[Kashi]

If there is any scenario where a "hot" LoC is a better option on a sustained basis, lets try that out!

I believe it was the "hotness" of the LoC that led to Pakis feeling the heat and the ceasefire that followed. It stood for a while as well.

As soon as the "heat" was turned down, we saw what happened.

[shaun]

Somnathji ...what is that you want argue/suggest / comment ?? can you please make yourself clear ??? we will be again going OT and admin danda is any time soon.

This is what i understood from the last few posts of yours.

1. The NSA level talks shouldn't have gone down the drain
2. The present GOI is to be blamed for that.
3. We need to talk what ever the circumstances, might be
4. Talking with them will keep the terrorist at bay
5. This will help our GDP to grow at 7 %

[Tuvaluan]

Actually, that is correct. Faster our growth, bigger will be our gross national power differentials with PAk (and narrower with China). And more resources available to spend on defence. There is usually no panacea for any problem, but fast growth comes close.

Yes, no need to repeat the same nonsense. I heard you the first time around. The question here is: what good is economic growth as long as there exists a hostile terrorist nation committed to creating internal unrest in India and economic subversion etc. while it increases its capability to wield larger and more dangerous weapons over time (with the help of powers that are willing to proliferate WMD to it) to effectively neutralize any conventional defense spending.

The question you are not answering and sidestepping are: why is it okay to ignore the responses of China and Pakistan when they respond to India's proclamation of 8% growth? Secondly, why is it okay to get into war once India has more to lose after a decade of 8% growth -- why will this same "more economic growth will allow us to take them down" be any less valid then than it is now?

[Anujan]

Part of the reason why Pakis are going hysterical about India is to distract everyone from whats going on in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has lost even the fig leaf that it provided no support to the Taliban. Taliban worthies are traveling by road from Quetta to Murree to hold "peace process" in Murree. Now they are openly holding Jirgas in Quetta to rally support for Mullah Mansoor. Pakis cannot deny that they dont know where the taliban are: Just go to the largest "AoA Jeeeeeeehaaaaaarrrrrrrrddddddd!!!!!!" chanting crowd in Quetta.

That would by itself not be a bad thing, but in the past month Taliban have orchestrated spectacular attacks, car bombs and such. Now they have completely overrun another district. They are not a "political party". Pakistan is now bound by UN resolution on terrorism to apprehend, arrest and take action against the Taliban leaders. But Pakistan is not doing any of that.

Understandably Afghanistan is upset and are questioning Pakistan's motives. Diplomatic relations is at a low, Paki diplomats have been ordered to cease all their movements. Now how can Pakistan act?

INDIAAAAA!!!! CASHMEEEREEEE!!!!!

SDREs should concentrate on exposing Paki perfidy in Afghanistan. "Worry of Indian influence" is no excuse to kill and maim innocent citizens of Afghanistan and to destroy its social fabric.

[Gus]

Why r folks feeding troll in thread after thread and get derailed. Use the ignore list and keep focus.

[Anujan]

Read these articles:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/ ... CO20150827
In Afghanistan's Helmand, the Taliban are talking war, not peace

Soldiers from the U.S.-led NATO coalition have joined combat to stop a Taliban advance in Afghanistan's Helmand province, where battlefield success has given the insurgents' their biggest symbolic victory in years and made talking peace a fading hope.

Incipient peace talks collapsed last month after it was announced that Taliban leader Mullah Omar had died two years before, triggering recriminations with Pakistan which Kabul accuses of hiding the truth and helping the insurgents.

The announcement was followed by a series of fatal attacks in Kabul. Looking to consolidate his position, acting successor Mullah Mansour disavowed talks, while commanders in the field have responded with surging offensives across the country.

The fall of Musa Qala comes shortly after the Taliban grabbed the neighboring district of Nawzad. Combined with a third district to the north, the Taliban now sit on a big chunk of Helmand, controlling lucrative opium production and major routes into Iran and Pakistan used to smuggle heroin to Europe.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/945500/grow ... -movement/

Pakistan embassy staff in Kabul limits movement

He said some individuals, presumably part of Afghanistan’s security apparatus, routinely hurled abuses at Pakistani embassy officials while passing near their home or the embassy compound. The situation has forced some embassy staffers who live outside the embassy compound to remain inside their homes, he added.

According to sources, the harassment of Pakistani officials in Afghanistan started after President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah and the NDS accused Pakistan of involvement in recent attacks in Kabul and the rest of the country. Pakistan has condemned the attacks.

And finally the only person who gets it all right

https://www.khaama.com/pakistan-is-a-we ... saleh-9605

Pakistan is a weak country and won’t stop terror in Afghanistan anytime soon: Saleh

Amrullah Saleh has said Pakistan will not stop terror in Afghanistan anytime soon, being a strategically narrow-minded state and considering a depth in the region in a bid to put pressure on India in some way.

“Pakistan is a politically insecure, psychologically nervous, and strategically narrow-minded state. It wants parity with India. In the belief of the Pakistani strategists, subordination of Afghanistan to the wishes and demands of Pakistan will give them a depth in the region and will in some way put pressure on India,” Saleh added.

According to Saleh “A real, robust democracy will transform Pakistan into a cultural and economic satellite state of India. Something that the Pakistani leaders want to avoid at any cost.”

Saleh said “Therefore, it is up to the Afghan government to strategize ways of getting Pakistan to refrain from interfering in Afghanistan diplomatically. Creating trouble in a neighboring country is not rocket science.”

[SaraLax]

Wasn't that chap who held office before SS Menon - MK Narayanan responsible for what was perhaps the worst track record of any government as regards terrorism in India? The horror of UPA-1 dark days still reverberates....

How do you define "worst"? Which kind of terrorism? Jihadi, ie, something that is largely in the bill of the Centre? Leftist insurgency (that is in the hinterland, largely in the bill of the state govt)?

26/11 happened under MKN's watch, and he was sacked subsequently. Was the Punjab militancy not "worst", under the legendary RN KAo's (who remained de facto NSA to Indira G, even though that position didnt exist) watch? Or wasnt Kargil the "worst", under Brajesh Midhra's watch?

As I said before, we need to quantify and define what "national interests" are. Any performance benchmarking will only be w.r.t the benchamrk.

Somnath Sir .. you are a special member indeed (and with lots of time in your hand to be able to post frequently across numerous threads .. retired maybe you are ?).

Nevertheless - The above highlighted line in your post is quite a SPIN .. or LIE as some others may call it.

Don't know why the normally attentive BR member folks are allowing you to slip in your fantasy posts and manufacture 'fake' opinion.

Regarding MKN
MKN was NSA from 2005 till 2010 during the UPA's rule. 26/11 terror attacks, Mumbai train attacks & etc - all happened during his time and the whole local police/IB/State Intelligence groups were revealed as one drowsy, sleepy lot. Some of the local police commissioners were even shot to their death on that 26/11 night. MKN even mentioned that he was praying to god in his morning pujas (or something similar) for preventing Terrorist attacks in India !!!. Bloody Great way to be an NSA ... Prayer ... ? My foot !. Returning to the actual story - MKN later got upgraded to post of Governor of West Bengal in 2010 and even went around in a comical fashion - felicitating in a public event & giving prizes to members of a local team for having won a dumb IPL event !!!. He was never 'subsequently sacked' (ha .. the wonderful list of words in English that allow you to obfuscate & twist reality and spin stories). MKN really got 'sacked' or eased himself out only in 2014 when current CG came into power and his constitutional position became tricky. MKN was forced to retire in 2014 from the post of Governor (after having been asked by CBI to appear as a witness in an UPA period Augusta Helicopter Purchase Scam). Now 2014 is some 6 years after the 26/11 event happened in 2008. That period of 6 years in the middle - with more time spent enjoying a retirement gift given by the then CG in a posh big colonial Bungalow somewhere in East India as a Governor - I would personally cringe to term MKN's professional career ending in 2014 as having been 'subsequently sacked' !.

Regarding Punjab Insurgency
The real cause for Punjab Militancy in 1980's was the behind-the-screens fiddling done by the then Indian PM Indira Gandhi with the idea of gaining power-on-the-sly in Punjab (from Akalis) by encouraging the Sikh hardliners to take to violence in the state and only to bring in the Army to quell it once it grew into an uncontrollable snake (with help from nearby country). Eventually that Punjab Insurgency Snake bit her and took her away. During the same period - She was also feeding milk & bringing up the SriLankan Tamil snake and that snake bit her son - Rajiv and he too was taken away. What mentality made such decisions to be taken by her 'elected government' when 'India was Indra & Indra was India' not so back in time ... There was nothing quantifiable as 'national interest' in these very bad decisions taken in an almost dictatorial manner ... Maybe it was the over-confidence & notions of invincibility & arrogance built-up within her by the praises of the numerous empty chamcha crowd post the INC's victory in 1980 Lok Sabha elections or may be even the victory in 1971 war (which was Indian Army's victory more so) ?. These were worse decisions and call it 'manufacturing one's own destiny' or something else - those decisions hit back in full force and couple of Indian PMs were lost in most violent way. What can a person like RN.Kao do if the country's PM is itself playing dirty in Punjab & causing issues in a state where the PM's party has lost power..

It will be very difficult to compare the decisions that were made in 1980s which eventually gave rise to Punjab & SL Tamil Insurgencies against the recent Non-Event-NSA-Talks and then come to the conclusion that the Non-Event-NSA-Talks as having been most badly managed event by the Indian CG (particularly when you consider that the same current CG is also working for an amicable settlement with the Nagas in Nagaland).

No wonder this one-family owned national party is loathed here in this forum with maximum intensity.