IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 29 Aug 2015 23:48

The PM of India has said in so many plain words that the Rafale is being acquired to meet the operational needs of the Indian Air Force. What is there to kowtow? Just take the PM at his word.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Aug 2015 00:13

NRao wrote:"This"is what I had said years back!

I was told no, this is not that.

May be new kind of "Scorpene" tech help .

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2015 01:32

May be new kind of "Scorpene" tech help

I do not think so. my understanding is that it did not do well.

Besides, there just may be a better source.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 30 Aug 2015 01:43

eklavya wrote:The PM of India has said in so many plain words that the Rafale is being acquired to meet the operational needs of the Indian Air Force. What is there to kowtow? Just take the PM at his word.

That's not all the PM said.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 30 Aug 2015 06:53

Karan M wrote:Just the Jaitapur deal or something else?

Many things. Cryptography, etc.

Having said that, I don't support the purchase of more than 36 Rafale's. India needs to save its money for the AMCA.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 30 Aug 2015 06:57

Avarachan, cryptography? We have a team for that at various institutes. Just curious.

Also, if compensating the French was the key issue, why not more Scorpenes or the SRSAM. 36 Rafales is a limited fleet and will only hobble the IAFs capex for a limited punch.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Aug 2015 06:59

Offhand I am unable to recall any Indian deal with a foreign nation in which there was a secret quid pro quo for paying up a lot of money up front for something else. Could someone please educate me in this regard?

In fact the arms sellers of the world have long ago evolved a great "quid pro quo" mechanism - and that is kickbacks. What would the quid pro quo in the Rafale deal possibly be other than kickbacks? With respect, assuming a quid pro quo that is secret is a form of mental rationalization - a way of comforting oneself that we are getting some fantastic unannounced things. The genre of comforting oneself here is the same as a toddler being comforted on his first day at school telling him that mummy will be here in a moment, when in fact mummy is not due for 3 more hours

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 30 Aug 2015 07:13

^^ Well if its secret, how are we supposed to tell you.

Unless it didn't remain secret.
On a less flippant note, the original Su-30K deal was supposedly done in part to assist Russia during a tough time, and the MKI grew out of it, with IAF making good out of the whole deal. The Vikramaditya is often stated to have been a proviso for getting access to the Akula and support for Arihant. In short, corruption is as good an answer as any - at least Subramaniam Swamy would agree with you regarding the original Rafale deal.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Aug 2015 09:41

Karan M wrote:^^ Well if its secret, how are we supposed to tell you. Unless it didn't remain secret.
On a less flippant note, the original Su-30K deal was supposedly done in part to assist Russia during a tough time, and the MKI grew out of it,

On the note of THEM gaining from our payment - we have the example of Rajiv Gandhi saving Thatcher's ass by buying Westland Junk Helos.

But is the case being made that we are paying extra for Rafale to save the French (akin to the above examples) or are WE getting something extra? I do not believe we are getting anything extra in secret for paying a whole lot more up front for Rafales. As stated in the quote I made from PC Lal's autobiography the costing takes into consideration lifetime costs and lifetime costs for IAF would include higher flying hours than most air forces barring some western ones. That means more inspections, more spares, more consumables.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 30 Aug 2015 09:58

That's PC Lal saar who lived and breathed India, we also have the open admission from some ex-babu that the great RG used to take commissions for the Congress party onlee and other reports stating both RG and SG were representing Viggen and Jaguar onlee whilst sitting at mama's dinner table. In short, the costing probably is adjusted for such imponderables if corruption is accepted as given and no strategic reasons apply.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Aug 2015 10:22

The Ajai Shukla article blaming IAF for being too paranoid to purchase Rafale looks like a proper hit job by MOD babus , who give him selective information to blame the IAF.

If the IAF lobby is so powerful that it can arm twist the MOD/GOI to buy 36 Rafale , what prevents the same lobby to buy 126 Rafale that is what IAF needs ?
Why did MOD Parrikar said in many interviews in Parliament that post 36 outright purchase , the remaining amount saved would be used to fund indigenous program he mentioned Tejas in particular.
He also mentioned if Rafale was cancelled IAF would buy more MKI which costs half that of Rafale.
At the same time he said Rafale deal may not be limited to 36 and if terms are good more will be purchased.

Both the IAF and GOI are on board to purchase the Rafale , else MOD would have outright cancelled it , Media is being used by MOD babus to target IAF from GOI shoulder not the first time though.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Aug 2015 10:25

shiv wrote:I do not believe we are getting anything extra in secret for paying a whole lot more up front for Rafales. As stated in the quote I made from PC Lal's autobiography the costing takes into consideration lifetime costs and lifetime costs for IAF would include higher flying hours than most air forces barring some western ones. That means more inspections, more spares, more consumables.

+ 1 , Life cycle cost is what shows the Rafale cost getting inflated to 300 Million , Although this is not yet an official figure.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2015 10:51

All are in the same boat: speculating. So, does this mean that once India pays for a rafale, that dassault will provide spares and support for the rest of its life? And what would that life be? And what is the cost of a similar life for a MKI?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Aug 2015 11:03

NRao wrote:All are in the same boat: speculating. So, does this mean that once India pays for a rafale, that dassault will provide spares and support for the rest of its life? And what would that life be? And what is the cost of a similar life for a MKI?

"I wish", questions.

French and NATO intel would get some useful classified info about proposed tactics and training from India's Rafale deal because of what the IAF will have to reveal regarding types or usage and hours of usage. But in turn they would generally keep the info to themselves. The IAF will of course not reveal similar info about Su-30 MKI to the French so people outside a restricted circle in India will never get any reliable figures for this question.

But if the French are not going to supply spares for the rest of Rafale's service life even if it is the next 40 years then the deal would not go through. As an aside I think Indian law states that car manufacturers have to guarantee spares and support for any new model car for at least 10 years from purchase.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Aug 2015 11:26

On LCC it seems its 40 years

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 830845.cms

For one, the "life cycle cost" of operating the Typhoon over a 40-year period, with 6,000 hours of flying, was found to be "higher" than Rafale after extensive calculations of flight costs, spares, maintenance and the like. "The life cycle costs were actually the tool to determine who was L-1 (lowest bidder)," he said.

For another, the difference in the 'direct acquisition cost', which will actually be used to ink the contract, was even bigger. "The Typhoon's commercial bid was way too high. Rafale was the clear L-1 in both life cycle as well as direct acquisition costs," he added.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2015 11:39

Thanks, much appreciated.

Now, IF the MKI has a much lower comparable cost, it is this delta that is posing the question, why the Rafale and the associated guess work.

The original news (MMRCA) was that the IAF did not want more planes in the Russian basket. Then what was the purpose of MP bringing the MKI into the picture.

srai · Post by **srai** » 30 Aug 2015 11:41

^^^

No manufacture will give you a complete support package for 40-years. They themselves wouldn't know of all things that will break down during that time. Most standard ones are 1 to 3 year manufacture warranty and then optional maintenance contract (varies from 1 year or more but rarely exceeds 10 years) that covers certain usage/hours and known parts replacement during regular servicing to give you a peace of mind on certain serviceability rates. Anything else is extra, which are many.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2015 11:48

srai wrote:^^^

No manufacture will give you a complete support package for 40-years. They themselves wouldn't know of all things that will break down during that time. Most standard ones are 1 to 3 year manufacture warranty and then optional maintenance contract (varies from 1 year or more but rarely exceeds 10 years) that covers certain usage/hours and known parts replacement during regular servicing to give you a peace of mind on certain serviceability rates. Anything else is extra, which are many.

That sounds like the automotive industry. Aerospace does provide longer projections.

There are standard statistical techniques, in use for eons, like extrapolation (among others) (coursera.com offers free courses from top univs). Six Sigma?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Aug 2015 12:07

srai wrote:^^^

No manufacture will give you a complete support package for 40-years. They themselves wouldn't know of all things that will break down during that time. Most standard ones are 1 to 3 year manufacture warranty and then optional maintenance contract (varies from 1 year or more but rarely exceeds 10 years) that covers certain usage/hours and known parts replacement during regular servicing to give you a peace of mind on certain serviceability rates. Anything else is extra, which are many.

Is 6000 hrs or 40 years which ever comes earlier , so Life Cycle Cost is calculated in 6000 hrs

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Aug 2015 15:58

NRao wrote:Thanks, much appreciated.

Now, IF the MKI has a much lower comparable cost, it is this delta that is posing the question, why the Rafale and the associated guess work.

The original news (MMRCA) was that the IAF did not want more planes in the Russian basket. Then what was the purpose of MP bringing the MKI into the picture.

I am making a completely wild guess here - but I am certain the per-hour flying cost of the MKI must be higher than the Rafale simply based on school physics - the weights. The MKI requires a lot more energy to get it up in the air and keep it there and I am certain fuel costs must be higher

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 30 Aug 2015 16:15

NRao wrote:
srai wrote:^^^

No manufacture will give you a complete support package for 40-years. They themselves wouldn't know of all things that will break down during that time. Most standard ones are 1 to 3 year manufacture warranty and then optional maintenance contract (varies from 1 year or more but rarely exceeds 10 years) that covers certain usage/hours and known parts replacement during regular servicing to give you a peace of mind on certain serviceability rates. Anything else is extra, which are many.
That sounds like the automotive industry. Aerospace does provide longer projections.

There are standard statistical techniques, in use for eons, like extrapolation (among others) (coursera.com offers free courses from top univs). Six Sigma?

Yes, in aerospace the support from manufacturers side is extensive and way beyond automobiles practice. From commercial civil aerospace deals - I have sold Bell helicopters for some time and I know for sure that the engine support programme, the airframe and ancillaries support programme, the avionics support programme extended on the hours contracted for and not just a calendar time period.

After the basic acquisition, it is up to the customer to decide on add ons and they are hugely expensive. An engine insurance which we purchased for our company aircraft, a B 1900 D turboprop (JSSI engine insurance) was priced around $110 per hour for 02 engines at todays exchange rate and in return guaranteed a 24 hrs replacement in case of engine failure anywhere in the world. In addition we paid a one time enrollment fee of US$22000. Now, that is a serious addition to operating cost and this is over and above the comprehensive insurance on the aircraft and passengers which we had. Similar insurance packages were available on avionics and propellers, governors etc. We only added the airframe and ancillaries package which was about one third the cost of JSSI . With the JSSI included and all other costs added our per hour operating cost hovered from US$ 725 to US$ 965 at various times, mostly due fluctuation in fuel prices and Rs. vs $ exchange fluctuations. In this case it is clear how the support package impacts the Operating Cost and also how big a share of operating cost it constitutes.

Similarly spares support programme is run by all manufacturers and OEM provided parts are one's insurance like JSSI will cover. Infact, this is where most of the profit for OEM is. Spare support along with similar insurance package (AFAIK, JSSI was not associated with Raytheon then, but we took from JSSI ignoring similar Raytheon associated programme). I do not see why OEM's will give up this cash cow. I have heard of similar costs in the mil programmes too but can't confirm that.

Between US based aircraft manufacturers and Europeans (Eurocopter specially) our assessment was that Europeans are upfront cheaper but the life cycle support programmes are more expensive. This is not a rule across all manufacturers and all aircraft but general assessment.

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 30 Aug 2015 16:16

I doubt if any quid pro quo was there. France is no Russia to part with something that might disturb geo-political calculations of khan wrt Indian sub continent.
Once french announced their price in public, in this case the price they sold to their air force, it was kind of no price roll back for them. IAF and babus must have done some calculation and came up with demands to derive maximum bang for the buck. So IAF must have felt, for the speculated $200 million a pop we should have:
1.)Two air bases.
2.)Astra integration
3.)Some TOT.
Negotiations must have dragged on for what must be TOTed or what must be screwdrivergiri.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2015 18:41

. France is no Russia to part with something that might disturb geo-political calculations of khan wrt Indian sub continent.

As a thumb rule it I can see that stand. But, the nuke tests did provide an example of a restive member of that supposed group. So, there is a marked precedence.

Nothing, other than that the IAF did not want everything in the Russian basket, seems to explain this purchase for that price. So the quid pro quo door remains open.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Aug 2015 20:15

Karan M wrote:Avarachan, cryptography? We have a team for that at various institutes. Just curious.

Also, if compensating the French was the key issue, why not more Scorpenes or the SRSAM. 36 Rafales is a limited fleet and will only hobble the IAFs capex for a limited punch.

It had something to do with the jaithapur nuke deal, some sort of a sweetener, perhaps??

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 30 Aug 2015 21:56

Karan M wrote:Avarachan, cryptography? We have a team for that at various institutes. Just curious.

AFAIK, french are not any more advanced in cryptanalysis (right term for code breaking where as crytptography is a general term for the area - including designing codes and cryptanalysis) than what India can do from open source research literature in the area. I am sure there are enough talent and expertise. But Israelis and the US on the other hand are probably further along a lot. After all they are the ones who came up with some of the codes - RSA (Rivest, Shamir, Adelman - Shamir moved to Israel), triple DES, El-gamal. Lot of funding is there for cryptography research to US academia - faster key generation, i.e. faster primality testing as well as good fast pseudo-random number generators. Random number generators are not only useful in cryptography but also in Monte Carlo simulations of what is euphemistically called Atmosphere/weather research.

Some of these things India can do at a much lower cost than what happens in the US MIC. It is a just a matter being cleverer than the other guys.

I don't know much beyond what I said above. My guess is that a lot of bluffing goes on in this area too just like nukes/yields/number of weapons/yearly enrichment/you-poo stockpiles and such.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 31 Aug 2015 00:28

Thing is, if there is a hidden element padding the costs (highly unlikely but lets assume so) there are a dozen different ways for them to do so without messing up a deal involving a massive amount of public scrutiny. Aside from a (covert) direct transfer of funds, you can inflate costs of anything from contracts with Areva, to those for the AWACS or MRTT.

Similar arguments were used to explain the staggering cost of the Mirage upgrade and will undoubtedly be used to justify the inevitably steep cost of a Rafale upgrade (if the current purchase is sanctioned).

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 31 Aug 2015 07:47

http://www.punemirror.in/pune/civic/Raf ... 725676.cms

Although the purchase of 36 Dassault Rafale combat jets had hit a roadblock, Air Chief Marshal Arup Rahal said the deal is in its "final stages".

. . .

"The government is working on certain aspects, which cannot be revealed at this juncture."

Wonder what the roadblock is this time.

It seems like the program has spent 90% of its time in 'final stages.'

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2015 07:48

and hopefully thats where it shall remain in lagrangian point somewhere over middle east, halfway between france and india.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 31 Aug 2015 07:52

vayu tuvan wrote:
Karan M wrote:Avarachan, cryptography? We have a team for that at various institutes. Just curious.
AFAIK, french are not any more advanced in cryptanalysis (right term for code breaking where as crytptography is a general term for the area - including designing codes and cryptanalysis) than what India can do from open source research literature in the area. I am sure there are enough talent and expertise. But Israelis and the US on other probably lot further along. After all they are the ones who came up with some of the codes - RSA (Rivest, Shamir, Adelman - Shamir moved to Israel), triple DES, El-gamal. Lot of funding is there for cryptography research to US academia - faster key generation, i.e. faster primality testing as well as good fast pseudo-random number generators. Random number generators are not only useful in cryptography but also in Monte Carlo simulations of what is euphemistically called Atmosphere/weather research.

Some of these things India can do at much much lower cost than what happens in the US MIC. It is a just a matter being cleverer than the other guys.

I don't know much beyond what I said above. My guess is that a lot of bluffing goes on in this area too just like Nukes/yields/number of weapons etc.

There is also the basic point on how can you ever trust any cryptoanalysis or other work which you have done with others who may turn out to be strategic competitors in the future?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Aug 2015 08:37

Karan M ji: aah. good point. The trick then is not to collaborate with anybody else but trusted parties. These are the kinds of things that make some people go nuts, ex. John Nash or (mild acetamenophen) drug addiction, ex. Paul Erdos, or make them die young after with hard partying and drinking, ex. JvN, or kill themselves from suicidal thoughts arising out of manic-depressive illness, ex. Turing.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 31 Aug 2015 08:42

Singha wrote:and hopefully thats where it shall remain in lagrangian point somewhere over middle east, halfway between france and india.

Given how IAF is stuck on it, its best it gets resolved so that other programs also progress!! Otherwise capex will be earmarked for some MMRCA or the other and everything else will wait forever.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 01 Sep 2015 00:25

any concluding chaiwalla news ?
It was supposed to wrapped up in 10 days... someone said 10 days ago

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 01 Sep 2015 03:13

Karan M wrote:Avarachan, cryptography? We have a team for that at various institutes. Just curious.

Also, if compensating the French was the key issue, why not more Scorpenes or the SRSAM. 36 Rafales is a limited fleet and will only hobble the IAFs capex for a limited punch.

1) Look up the Indo-French Center for Applied Mathematics (IFCAM).
http://www2.cnrs.fr/en/1955.htm

2) France desperately needed a launch customer for the Rafale. In my opinion, it's not an accident that after India's selection, there was renewed interest in the Rafale from multiple countries. The IAF is globally respected.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 01 Sep 2015 05:51

If this deal goes through there will def be follow on orders. Ugh, what a waste of $$ at this stage. We should've pumped all this money into the MK 1A/II and expanded the manufacturing base and bought more Su-30's to plug the numbers.

We need a cheap modern, fighter which is customizable and manufactured within the country. Not some expensive POS. With an internal jammer, low RCS, AESA radar, HMCS, Python and I-Derby missiles, LGB, etc. we'll be giving the Paki's and Chinese a hard time.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 01 Sep 2015 14:37

I really hope the "deal" falls flat.

The 36 are being quoted as needed to meet "urgent operational requirements" of IAF.

Wonder why just for 36 jets introduce yet another fighter type.

IAF will operate 272 MKIs.Adding 36 to that number shouldn't cause problems .. Also these would be the brahmos capable ones if ordered.

Need some positive news on HALs production line doubling proposal urgently .. The reported cost btw was just 1500 crores to set up another LCA line to be borne jointly by MoD, HAL and IAF.

Also considering Dassults existing Rafale export commitments, it will be a LONG time to get the 36 inducted with first deliveries beginning only 2 years from now.

36 "urgent" MKIs + 40 Tejas MK1 + rest MK1A till MK2 arrives ought to be the streamlined way to go.

Also since mid air refuelling is mandatory for granting FOC, IAF must also acquire 36 urgent refuellers to meet needs of its fast jet fleet.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2015 19:42

CNN IBN ticker: "Defence Panel clears French Rafale deal" - whatever that means 8-45 PM IST 1st sep 2015

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 01 Sep 2015 20:52

shiv wrote:CNN IBN ticker: "Defence Panel clears French Rafale deal" - whatever that means 8-45 PM IST 1st sep 2015

Stage is finally set for Induction of Rafale into the IAF !

This clears the way for signing of contract with Mr.Drian, French DM ..

Now that the chattis ka aakda is 99% confirmed, might as well start photoshopping IAF roundel on Rafales

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 01 Sep 2015 21:00

http://ptinews.com/news/6449600_Rafale- ... tions.html

Rafale deal: DAC happy with progress in negotiations

New Delhi, Sep 1 (PTI) Signaling that the deadlock in talks over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets has been resolved, the Defence Acquisition Council today expressed satisfaction at the progress made and asked the Indian negotiating team to "go ahead" regarding the deal.

This means that a government-to-government agreement between India and France is likely to be signed soon to pave the way for the final contract for the fighter jets.

The defence ministry's top acquisition council, which met here this evening under the chairmanship of Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, also cleared a Rs 6,966 crore deal for the purchase of 48 Mi17-V5 helicopters from Russia.

Further, approval was given for the purchase of seven additional squadrons of Akash missiles for the air force and eight Chetak helicopters for the navy.

However, the DAC did not take a decision on the navy's proposal to acquire over 100 utility helicopters. Neither did it take a decision on going ahead with P75I submarine tenders worth over Rs 60,000 crore.

On the the Rafale fighter jets, defence ministry sources said that "the negotiating committee apprised the DAC about the progress made so far. The DAC asked it to go ahead and proceed".

Defence sources said this means that the deadlock has been broken. India's insistence on 50 per cent off-set clause, tweaking of weaponry technology and plans to set up two bases for Rafale fighter jets were some of the issues which had cropped up during the recent talks that began after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the decision to acquire 36 Rafales during his trip to France in April.

Interestingly, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was expected to arrive tonight, but his trip has been delayed.

Though defence ministry officials were tight-lipped on it, sources said he would be visiting soon. .

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 01 Sep 2015 21:11

Regardless of pricing issues, in the end it's a very good plane. Time to move on. Let's just hope this was the last order. Desi maal only from now on.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Sep 2015 21:29

dhiraj wrote:http://ptinews.com/news/6449600_Rafale- ... tions.html

Rafale deal: DAC happy with progress in negotiations
New Delhi, Sep 1 (PTI) Signaling that the deadlock in talks over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets has been resolved, the Defence Acquisition Council today expressed satisfaction at the progress made and asked the Indian negotiating team to "go ahead" regarding the deal.

This means that a government-to-government agreement between India and France is likely to be signed soon to pave the way for the final contract for the fighter jets.

The defence ministry's top acquisition council, which met here this evening under the chairmanship of Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, also cleared a Rs 6,966 crore deal for the purchase of 48 Mi17-V5 helicopters from Russia.

Further, approval was given for the purchase of seven additional squadrons of Akash missiles for the air force and eight Chetak helicopters for the navy.

However, the DAC did not take a decision on the navy's proposal to acquire over 100 utility helicopters. Neither did it take a decision on going ahead with P75I submarine tenders worth over Rs 60,000 crore.

On the the Rafale fighter jets, defence ministry sources said that "the negotiating committee apprised the DAC about the progress made so far. The DAC asked it to go ahead and proceed".

Defence sources said this means that the deadlock has been broken. India's insistence on 50 per cent off-set clause, tweaking of weaponry technology and plans to set up two bases for Rafale fighter jets were some of the issues which had cropped up during the recent talks that began after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the decision to acquire 36 Rafales during his trip to France in April.

Interestingly, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was expected to arrive tonight, but his trip has been delayed.

Though defence ministry officials were tight-lipped on it, sources said he would be visiting soon. .

Excellent News on Rafale , Persistence Pays

Hope they follow up with one more squadron to make it 3 Full Squadron. The remaining 6-7 Squadron amount is better utilised by ordering Tejas Mk1/Mk2 and 1 Squad of MKI