India-Russia: News & Analysis

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Ashokk »

France to Discuss Mistral Sale to Malaysia – Source
Image
France's defense minister will discuss the sale to Malaysia of one of the Mistral helicopter carriers originally destined for Russia during a visit to the country, a source familiar with the talks said, confirming a report on news website latribune.fr.
On his return from Malaysia, Jean-Yves Le Drian will also make a detour to India to sign a deal for 36 Rafale fighter jets built by French group Dassault Aviation, latribune.fr added.
A source with knowledge of the talks told Reuters on Friday that India's Rafale purchase could be concluded in about 10 days.
India is also interested in the Mistral, latribune.fr said.
French President Francois Hollande confirmed on Tuesday that there were several potential buyers for the two Mistral. France cancelled the planned sale of the warships to Russia because of the Ukraine crisis.
No one was immediately reachable for comment at the French Defence Ministry, Dassault Aviation or Mistral manufacturer DCNS.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by member_23370 »

Has the rafale deal been concluded?
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

Austin,

The story was about the KA-226T choppers which I agree is a good deal to do joint production with Russia. However, reducing the impact of sanctions on Russia with India's help will be limited as the overall trend has shown a decline of trade between India-Russia.
In fact, India-Russia trade target for 2025 is set at $30 billion which is abysmally low as India will have over a $4 trillion GDP by then and most likely Russia's GDP will be behind that of India.

http://indianembassy.ru/index.php/bilat ... dia-russia
Enhancing trade and economic cooperation between India and Russia is a key priority for the two governments. During 15th Annual Summit, the two leaders set a target of US$30 billion bilateral trade by 2025. Bilateral trade during in 2014 amounted to US$ 9.51 billion, with Indian export amounting to US$ 3.17 billion (an increase of 2.6 % over 2013) and imports from Russia amounting to US$ 6.34 billion (decline of 9.2 % over 2013).
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Vipul »

Desperate Russia opens doors for foreign militaries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy stance has invited damaging economic sanctions from the US and the European Union. These have squeezed the important sectors that earn most of Russia's money -- oil, banking services and defence exports.

Battering the Russian economy further are plummeting oil prices, which are blocking Putin's 2010 pledge to spend some 20 trillion roubles -- about $650 billion then -- to revamp his ageing arsenal.

After years of defence spending increases, Russia's 2015 budget has hit a roadwall.Moscow has scaled back plans for buying 500 warplanes from 2011-2016, as well as the new Armata tank and a host of warships.

Earlier this year, authoritative Russian think tank Centre for Analysis of Strategy and Technologies forecast a Russian military spending crisis."The modern Russian economy just does not generate enough resources to finance the current 2011-2020 rearmament program," said the report.

That is why Russia -- traditionally secretive on matters relating to defence -- has unprecedentedly invited over 30 journalists (half from China, Vietnam, Thailand and India; and a similar number from Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico) to tour its defence facilities. This includes your correspondent and another from one other Indian newspaper.

The Park Patriotic, a vast training-cum-exhibition ground outside Moscow, is being extensively revamped to hold equipment demonstrations, exhibitions, and exercises with foreign militaries.

With fewer orders from Moscow, the Russian arms industry must aggressively pursue more foreign orders.Yet, increasing exports will not be easy for Moscow.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's authoritative 2015 Yearbook finds that Russia is the world's second-biggest arms exporter, with 27 per cent of the export market. Only the US is ahead with 31 per cent of the market.

Delegations from prospective buyer countries are evident at the MAKS 2015 air show, which President Putin inaugurated on Tuesday.

This year's version of the biennial aerospace exhibition features 156 global and 584 Russian companies, with the host nation's aerospace design strength on full display.

Tearing through the skies is the Sukhoi T-50, the Russian prototype of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft that Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd will co-develop with Sukhoi when protracted negotiations over the design partnership are finally concluded.

Today was the first public flight of the aircraft since the last MAKS show two years ago. And both the Russian and Indian air forces are reducing the numbers of aircraft they are committing to build.

The Indian Air Force was initially looking to build close to 220 FGFAs. That was reduced to 144, and uncorroborated media reports have recently indicated that this number could go down to about 75. That is why Russia needs more foreign buy-in.

Russia's traditional reliance on India as a buyer is also evident with the spotlight on its new, light, multi-role helicopter, the Kamov-226T, developed for an Indian tender for 197 light utility helicopters.

So keen is Moscow that India buy this helicopter that President Putin personally took up the issue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their summit meeting last year.

Russia has proclaimed its willingness for a "Make in India" contract for this helicopter, but the jury in New Delhi is still out.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Vivek K »

We must make sure that we answer these questions:
How does helping Russia help Indian strategic interests? Is this blackmail for all the Russian hardware dumped on India?
Russia has an active partnership with China and is now developing arms trade with Pakistan - is it in "INDIAN" interests to continue to prop up Russia while these activities go on unchecked?
What can we get from the Russians in return - cheap oil? TOT for the tin cans that was held up?

If India throws money away then God bless - Mera Bharat Mahaan and keep saying - Mujhe Bhagwan Ke Liye Chod do!
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

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Mort Walker wrote:In fact, India-Russia trade target for 2025 is set at $30 billion which is abysmally low as India will have over a $4 trillion GDP by then and most likely Russia's GDP will be behind that of India.

http://indianembassy.ru/index.php/bilat ... dia-russia
Enhancing trade and economic cooperation between India and Russia is a key priority for the two governments. During 15th Annual Summit, the two leaders set a target of US$30 billion bilateral trade by 2025. Bilateral trade during in 2014 amounted to US$ 9.51 billion, with Indian export amounting to US$ 3.17 billion (an increase of 2.6 % over 2013) and imports from Russia amounting to US$ 6.34 billion (decline of 9.2 % over 2013).
A lot of those trade figures will depend on the price of energy in coming years , A USD value might not give an accurate picture as devaluation of currency or change in oil price might effect the figure.

Since Energy Oil and Gas will play a major role in future trade the price would also determine the over all trade figure , if Oil is traded at says $100 in 2020 then for same volume of Oil and gas deal the numbers will be sometime compared to say it trading at $60 for the same volume.

Having said that Indo-Russian relation is as much about trust and strategic partnership as it is about volume something similar to French , Else China Trade with India is far higher just below UAE.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

Austin wrote:
A lot of those trade figures will depend on the price of energy in coming years , A USD value might not give an accurate picture as devaluation of currency or change in oil price might effect the figure.

Since Energy Oil and Gas will play a major role in future trade the price would also determine the over all trade figure , if Oil is traded at says $100 in 2020 then for same volume of Oil and gas deal the numbers will be sometime compared to say it trading at $60 for the same volume.

Having said that Indo-Russian relation is as much about trust and strategic partnership as it is about volume something similar to French , Else China Trade with India is far higher just below UAE.
The USD figure is only represented as a reference to global trade. If not, we can use the Euro for reference because the Ruble, Yuan or Rupee are not used for international trade. The last I understood, even Russia wanted to trade with India on USD terms and not the Ruble or Rupee. If it was the latter, then things may be a different matter. The RBI has a mix of foreign currencies in FOREX surplus and they will move to another mix to reduce exposure to the USD or Euro should any of those devalue. Whatever currency we use as the reference today is for the value of goods and services for India's trade. That value will increase should the USD devalue in the long term to 2025. There could be short term difficulties, should you get your wish the US economy implode, but the RBI is trusted enough to handle this and we should not see another 1991 like crisis barring a decline in India's key production figures and savings. It seems to me that you are subconsciously hoping that India will face an economic crisis and will have no choice but to trade with Russia as it will have no other place to get what it needs for economic development. Even if that were true, I still think the Russians will want the USD or Euro and not the Rupee.

I agree that the Indo-Russian relations are a strategic partnership, but if hundreds of millions of peoples livelihood is dependent on commercial relations, then there are strategic understandings where conflict becomes less likely. And I'm not talking about the India-US, but India-China relations. This is where commercial trade becomes important and it is not going in a good direction with Russia.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Viv S »

Mort Walker wrote:In fact, India-Russia trade target for 2025 is set at $30 billion which is abysmally low as India will have over a $4 trillion GDP by then and most likely Russia's GDP will be behind that of India.
Its already behind. Has been so for a while now.

(We might be ahead of Italy too. Not sure about that one.)
Last edited by Viv S on 28 Aug 2015 15:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

VivS,

I was being generous assuming Russia's GDP will grow by a few percent every year. Even then they will be behind India.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Vivek K »

Well if Philip had his way, India would be buying $20 billion Russian junk everywhere to help them with their financial troubles?
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^ :rotfl:
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by NRao »

Vivek K wrote:Well if Philip had his way, India would be buying $20 billion Russian junk everywhere to help them with their financial troubles?
India needs to compensate for China too.

What's up with Indo-Russian trade?. Why so anemic? For so long?
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Per Capita Income of Russia is much higher compared to other BRICS Nation including China.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

In Any case Defence Export consitute a very small % of Russian export for eg in 2014 total Russian Export for 2014 is $490 Billion , Total Arms Export for the same period is $ 15 billion and India constituted $ 4 billion for the 15.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/russias ... ports/2350


Russia India will benefit when the over all export/import grows , which will happen as big energy deals are signed or in the verge of it , Also the Rupee Rouble trade bypassing USD beteween two countries will increase.
Last edited by Austin on 28 Aug 2015 09:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Mort Walker wrote: I agree that the Indo-Russian relations are a strategic partnership, but if hundreds of millions of peoples livelihood is dependent on commercial relations, then there are strategic understandings where conflict becomes less likely. And I'm not talking about the India-US, but India-China relations. This is where commercial trade becomes important and it is not going in a good direction with Russia.
I would be looking at Trade Volume between two nation YOY more than USD figure , USD figure will be affected by dynamic things like Energy Prices or Devaluation of currency.

IF the over all trade volume between two nation increases then its positive thing and not just for India Russia but even India BRICS

Well if you see the two way trade between nation , You will see even UAE outclassed China and US

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... s_of_India

While I agree Trade Should Grow and the recent energy deal and one in the making plus the nuclear deal will help in that , and we might see a rise in Rupee-Rouble trade both the Central Bank are working on it and the swapping of currency bewtween two nation.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 106_1.html
http://in.rbth.com/economics/2015/01/04 ... 40695.html
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by JE Menon »

Vivek K wrote:Well if Philip had his way, India would be buying $20 billion Russian junk everywhere to help them with their financial troubles?
Please don't get personal gents...
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

Austin wrote:
I would be looking at Trade Volume between two nation YOY more than USD figure , USD figure will be affected by dynamic things like Energy Prices or Devaluation of currency.

IF the over all trade volume between two nation increases then its positive thing and not just for India Russia but even India BRICS

Well if you see the two way trade between nation , You will see even UAE outclassed China and US

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... s_of_India

While I agree Trade Should Grow and the recent energy deal and one in the making plus the nuclear deal will help in that , and we might see a rise in Rupee-Rouble trade both the Central Bank are working on it and the swapping of currency bewtween two nation.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 106_1.html
http://in.rbth.com/economics/2015/01/04 ... 40695.html
You have to fix trade volume between countries to some currency to get equivalencies. Right now it is in USD. We could use the Rouble or Rupee if you wanted, but even by that estimate trade volume would be low when comparing India's trade with its current top 15 trade partners. The Rupee-Rouble trade that you cited was from Jan. 2015 and it seems it is more the Indian side pushing for it.
How much time it can take to make this idea a reality?

It will not be big issue for India. The call has to be taken by Russia because at the moment, Russia is getting at least this $4 billion in hard currency. Tomorrow if they keep this amount, they are deprived of that much of dollar. So a call of course a proposal may be mooted by India but final call may have to be taken by Russia. So that is something which has to be discussed and deliberated with Russian counterparts.
It seems that Russia wants the hard USD from India and with sanctions biting Russia it would appear unlikely they would accept Rupees from India.

India's largest trading partners that you listed from Wikipedia is from 2012 and even back then Russia was not in the top 15 trade partners of India. The point I'm trying to make is that even though Russia is a strategic partner to India for certain key technologies, we should not think that the Russians won't supply those same strategic goods and services to someone else if they have the hard cash. Be it China or Pakistan.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by ldev »

Russia does not sell/lease certain weapons (i.e. Akula SSSNs) to China not because they want to protect India but because they are afraid that one day the Chinese will copy and use them against Russia itself.
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Mort Walker wrote:The USD figure is only represented as a reference to global trade. If not, we can use the Euro for reference because the Ruble, Yuan or Rupee are not used for international trade. The last I understood, even Russia wanted to trade with India on USD terms and not the Ruble or Rupee. If it was the latter, then things may be a different matter. The RBI has a mix of foreign currencies in FOREX surplus and they will move to another mix to reduce exposure to the USD or Euro should any of those devalue. Whatever currency we use as the reference today is for the value of goods and services for India's trade. That value will increase should the USD devalue in the long term to 2025. There could be short term difficulties, should you get your wish the US economy implode, but the RBI is trusted enough to handle this and we should not see another 1991 like crisis barring a decline in India's key production figures and savings. It seems to me that you are subconsciously hoping that India will face an economic crisis and will have no choice but to trade with Russia as it will have no other place to get what it needs for economic development. Even if that were true, I still think the Russians will want the USD or Euro and not the Rupee.
They can use IMF Basket of currency as reference or even SDR if that is possible or may be Gold Rates ? These Rouble-Rupee trade is something the Central Bank of both countries are working on atm and its not like 100 % of them would end up with Rouble/Rupee transaction

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/mon ... 892669.ece
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Viv S »

Russia-Pakistan defence ties discomfit India


By TNN | 1 Sep, 2015

NEW DELHI: Despite reservations expressed by India, Russia is looking to broaden its nascent defence partnership with Islamabad by expanding a contract to supply assault helicopters to the country. Russia had earlier agreed to supply four Mi-35 choppers to Pakistan, but it now says it is willing to sell more provided Pakistan can shell out the cost for these.

Equipped with the latest navigation and avionics systems, according to Moscow-based rotorcraft designer and manufacturer Russian Helicopters, the Mi-35 chopper offers round-the-clock combat use of guided and unguided weapons in regular and challenging climate conditions.

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, Russia will sell four choppers in the first phase, after which the contract could be expanded depending upon Islamabad's purchasing power.

In an interview to news agency Ria Novosti, Kabulov said Pakistan needed the choppers to fight the Taliban. "Probably they would like to continue once they have mastered them. There are no obstructions," he said.

Responding to reports from Moscow, government sources here said the issue will likely be discussed again with Russian authorities when Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to the Russian capital for his annual summit meet with Putin in the first week of December.

While he admitted that Russia was mindful of India's interests, Kabulov said negotiations were on with Pakistan over the supply of other weapons and defence systems, including artillery, in which the latter had shown interest. "They are also interested in tanks and artillery, and so on, but here we have to use caution in view of the strained Indo-Pakistani relations, even though such a contract is a minuscule deal against the background of our cooperation with India," he said.

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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^
According to Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, Russia will sell four choppers in the first phase, after which the contract could be expanded depending upon Islamabad's purchasing power.
When you trace back to what Zamir Kabulov told RIA Novosti, it becomes more precise:
http://sputniknews.com/business/2015082 ... 61580.html
The contract on the delivery of four Russian Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan could be expanded, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Second Asia Department Zamir Kabulov said Tuesday.

"It all depends on money. Pakistan has stated that it has the financial means for 10-12 helicopters of this type, but negotiations are ongoing," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by panduranghari »

Austin wrote: Low Oil Price is good for Russia as it helps it get out of Dutch Disease which they were suffering because of high oil price for long time and I would personally be happy if oil stays an average of $50 for next few years but then its a tough call.
The REAL price of oil has gone through the roof. And we are about to find that out. Very soon.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Vipul »

^^^^ Kabulov said Pakistan needed the choppers to fight the Taliban :rotfl: :rotfl:

Which Russian Artillery systems could pakistan be possibly interested in? They already have American 155 MM Guns and Chinese Smerch copies.

I would like the Oil prices to remain low for the next 2-3 years and for desperate Russia to sell more stuff to Pakistan.Pakis being Pakis, it wont be long before they show their peculiar love to them.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Hitesh »

This goes to show that Russia is not the all weather bell friend as some posters on this forum makes Russia out to be. Therefore, India should have no obligation to help prop up Russia's economy or its defense manufacturing sector when history has shown that Russia has a bad habit of ripping India off and going back on its terms or word.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Bhurishrava »

4 helicopters and thats it. Hmmm
Going by that logic we shouldnt buy or sell a needle to US of A.

India has diversified its source base. Russians are trying to make some money. Unless they start selling top line stuff like Yakhont or S400, we sure can chill.
Cryogenic engine, miniaturising Arihant powerhouse, Leasing nuclear subs. This list is probably the longer of the two.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

Austin wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:The USD figure is only represented as a reference to global trade. If not, we can use the Euro for reference because the Ruble, Yuan or Rupee are not used for international trade. The last I understood, even Russia wanted to trade with India on USD terms and not the Ruble or Rupee. If it was the latter, then things may be a different matter. The RBI has a mix of foreign currencies in FOREX surplus and they will move to another mix to reduce exposure to the USD or Euro should any of those devalue. Whatever currency we use as the reference today is for the value of goods and services for India's trade. That value will increase should the USD devalue in the long term to 2025. There could be short term difficulties, should you get your wish the US economy implode, but the RBI is trusted enough to handle this and we should not see another 1991 like crisis barring a decline in India's key production figures and savings. It seems to me that you are subconsciously hoping that India will face an economic crisis and will have no choice but to trade with Russia as it will have no other place to get what it needs for economic development. Even if that were true, I still think the Russians will want the USD or Euro and not the Rupee.
They can use IMF Basket of currency as reference or even SDR if that is possible or may be Gold Rates ? These Rouble-Rupee trade is something the Central Bank of both countries are working on atm and its not like 100 % of them would end up with Rouble/Rupee transaction

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/mon ... 892669.ece
If this happens it would be a very good development, but again the article is from last February about 7 months ago. In another article IIRC, this was suppose to have been worked out earlier in the year. To be honest, I really doubt Russia will go for a Rouble-Rupee transaction in the near future as Russia needs hard USD during the sanctions period.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Poor Porkis just got $19.34 Billion from just DOD during 2001-2014

http://costsofwar.org/sites/default/fil ... 202014.pdf
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Mort Walker »

Austin,

It is actually closer to $31 billion from FY2002-FY2016. See: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf
The Obama administration has given more aid to TSP than the Bush administration. All of course being used for TSPA RATS defense expenditure, and much of it for Capex purchases.

Nevertheless, this thread is to celebrate the India-Russia relation. So it is better to move these posts to India-US relations threads.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Viv S »

Bhurishrava wrote:4 helicopters and thats it. Hmmm
Going by that logic we shouldnt buy or sell a needle to US of A.
Nobody has any issues with buying equipment from Russia on its merits. Case in point: Mi-17, an acquisition that's almost universally appreciated.

Problem arises when folks assume that the Russians are owed defence contracts as a matter of course (thus justifying purchases like the Ka-226).

Russia expects India to stand by it during hard times of sanctions: Rostec
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Mort Walker wrote:Austin,

It is actually closer to $31 billion from FY2002-FY2016. See: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf
The Obama administration has given more aid to TSP than the Bush administration. All of course being used for TSPA RATS defense expenditure, and much of it for Capex purchases.

Nevertheless, this thread is to celebrate the India-Russia relation. So it is better to move these posts to India-US relations threads.
WoW thats truly Amazing figure :eek: , I am not sure even if we imported $31 Billion Arms during that period .... but then yes lets keep this to some other thread.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Mort Walker wrote:If this happens it would be a very good development, but again the article is from last February about 7 months ago. In another article IIRC, this was suppose to have been worked out earlier in the year. To be honest, I really doubt Russia will go for a Rouble-Rupee transaction in the near future as Russia needs hard USD during the sanctions period.
Atleast India would beneift more as Rouble is a Fully Convertible Currency ........ Its fine for 2 nation to trade in their respective currency as long as they are use it to buy and sell goods from each other.

Lets says if India says to Russia you can use the Rouble to build refineries to build power plant or other infra in India instead of USD and if Russia says you can import Oil and Gas in Rupee then they can use it for two way trade , its just up to the central bank to regulate the exchange rate.

Infact the Rouble-Rupee trade used to take place between India and SU if I am not wrong

As far as hard currency goes , Russian major export is still Europe I think some $300 billion trade so they will get Euro from them.

AKAIK by 2025 even the trade within CIS/Russia will change to their respective currency and will avoid using USD/Euro etc today 50 % of trade is in respective currency and 50% in USD/Euro . I think its mandated by EEU agreement between all states
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/09/01 ... IS-Eurasia

By 2020 I see Renminbi would be one of the most widely traded currency and may get accepted in IMF currency basket , so thats one good option besides Gold if the Fiat Currency We known now will exisit in the same form as we know now.

I say that because in the next 4-5 years we are in some form of revision of Fiat currency ...the stock market crash is just the beggining of it . Even Allan Green Span says we can expect something in coming years because of extraordinary and unconventional monetary policy of Fed and now EU
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

panduranghari wrote:
Austin wrote: Low Oil Price is good for Russia as it helps it get out of Dutch Disease which they were suffering because of high oil price for long time and I would personally be happy if oil stays an average of $50 for next few years but then its a tough call.
The REAL price of oil has gone through the roof. And we are about to find that out. Very soon.
I dont know what REAL price is but Oil was always regulated by OPEC so the was what they wanted more or less , Shale tried to come in break the balance not that Shale did not enjoy profits from high price.

But I think the current low price is due to demand issue mostly then supply side , We are into a long deflation phase and with commodity price going down , may be OPEC will be meeting soon as planned and cutting its quota or trying to regulate the price in some manner till shit falls when interest rate goes high.

Low oil price also means the conventional producer are shutting off many projects which will eventually impact ouput in few years and eventually price.

From Russian POV a stable price low or high is more important then constantly fluctuating one because the latter keeps devaluating or makes rouble stronger at pace which is not good and makes planning difficult.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Viv S wrote:
Bhurishrava wrote:4 helicopters and thats it. Hmmm
Going by that logic we shouldnt buy or sell a needle to US of A.
Nobody has any issues with buying equipment from Russia on its merits. Case in point: Mi-17, an acquisition that's almost universally appreciated.

Problem arises when folks assume that the Russians are owed defence contracts as a matter of course (thus justifying purchases like the Ka-226).

Russia expects India to stand by it during hard times of sanctions: Rostec
Didnt Condilizza Rice mentioned in her memoir of quid pro quo for India buying more defence equipment in return for US support for nuclear deal and IIRC we did discussed it in BRF
Viv S
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Viv S »

Austin wrote:Didnt Condilizza Rice mentioned in her memoir of quid pro quo for India buying more defence equipment in return for US support for nuclear deal and IIRC we did discussed it in BRF
I have her book with me. The only reference I can find is in the chapter - 'Building a New Relationship with India'. I'll type it out.

But the breakthrough was not just about nuclear power - it would unlock a wide range of possible areas of cooperation with a country that was an emerging power in the knowledge-based revolution in economic affairs. The Indians made clear, too, that they hoped to become a customer for U.S. military hardware. That was an exciting prospect for the defense industry.
Austin
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Amitabh Bachchan: There is a very strong affinity within me towards Russia

Ahead of the upcoming Festival of Indian Cinema in Moscow, actor Amitabh Bachchan was interviewed by TASS.



- Your family has strong connections with Russia (USSR), especially, your father, a poet, who translated several Russian works into Indian languages. You have been to Russia as well. Do you still have the memories from that time?

- Memories of Russia and its people have always formed a very prominent part of my years – my Father’s association creatively with Russian literature and poetry in his translations, his own visits and accounts of it, as also my several trips to Russia. There is a strange but very strong affinity within me towards the country and its people, and I do long for many future trips.

- Is there any chance that your Russian fans would have a chance to see you soon in Moscow or any other city?


- Yes of course. I have made some personal trips to Moscow and St Petersburg and wish to find any excuse to be there again. Russian fans have been connecting with me over the social media every day and that is a great blessing for me. They are full of love and admiration and I respond to them each day.

- As you may know, "Piku" will be shown in Russia in September. Do you think that Russians will understand it? What do you think will be the most interesting for them in this movie?

- ‘Piku’ is a slice of life in an average Indian home – a relationship between a Father and his daughter. Often relationships between Father and Son have taken prominence, but seldom the other. It also expresses the individuality of women in our society. A society that has been plagued by gender discrimination. The daughter here in the film is independent in thought, works for a living, has her own personal life, yet looks after her somewhat edgy Father at home, apart from doing all the domestic chores that a woman normally is associated with. It looks at a possessive Father, a Father who has a frank relationship with his daughter and one that understands her needs yet is keen to build his own way of life. He has scatological health concerns, a very common ailment in most Father’s, especially when they are aging and that adds to the interest of the relationship as Father and daughter undertake a road trip to his ancestral home. It is a universal film and I am certain there shall be some likeness among most Russian viewers.

- Bollywood movies are not shown in Russia any more. Have you ever discussed that issue with producers? Do you see any possibility for Bollywood comeback to Russia, may be, for example through joint projects?

- It is a pity that they are not shown. There was a time when they were. But then there was some trade understanding between the two countries. I do not know what the status is now. But yes it would be wonderful to bring back the Russian audiences to Indian cinema, and vice versa. I was involved in an Indo – Russian joint venture film, and it was a great joy for me to be working in such a set up. I do hope there can be many more.

- I am sure that you will find new fans in Russia after they get a chance to watch "Piku". Which three other movies of yours would you suggest them to watch to understand your craft better. Why?

- I do hope that the Russian audiences, who have always had a great affinity to Indian films right from the time of Raj Kapoor, like ‘Piku’, and I do hope that it can pave the way for future productions to find their way into your country. It would be an immense boost to the spread of this wonderful medium.

Limiting my choice to just 3 films would not be just. I wish I could say all my films. I have made 180 films over 46 years and each year has had its share of my likings, so it shall be most difficult.

- There were several adaptations of Russian literature in Indian cinema. Have you ever read Russian literature? Is there any hero you would like to play?


- Yes we have been exposed to Russian literature and many Indian films have sought inspiration from Russian writers and thinkers. There are so many heroes, that it would be difficult to chose one. Pushed to a wall I would like to play a ‘common’ Russian, a man of the times, one that is ordinary, but has the will and desire to become extraordinary.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Did any one here watched Piku ? I watched it twice and wont mind watching it as many times I can , Its fun and entertaining to watch specially Amit's character
Prem
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Prem »

China plays hard to get with Russia
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/02/news/ec ... ?sr=cnnitw
( India China trade is same as China Russia trade)
China's slowdown is making it harder for Beijing to deliver on promises it made to Moscow, and Chinese investors are spooked by Russia's deep economic crisis.Vladimir Putin is now hoping to give the relationship a second chance. The Russian president is in China this week, accompanied by an entourage of senior officials and business leaders.He faces an uphill task, and here's why:
Putin boasted last year that Russia's trade with China would exceed $100 billion in 2015, up from $95 billion in 2014. Longer term, the goal was for $200 billion.But instead of the promised boost, the value of trade between the two countries has nosedived."China's exports to Russia have fallen because of the slump in domestic demand in Russia, which is now in a deep recession," said Liza Ermolenko at Capital Economics.Official data show trade has fallen by almost a third so far this year. That's the biggest decline among all of China's trading partners. Trade was worth $31 billion in the first half of 2015, a long way off the ambitious target.Chinese direct investment in Russia is also suffering. It fell 25% in the first half of 2015, China's ministry of commerce said in July. Yet in the same period, China was happily pouring money into other countries -- overall Chinese investment abroad was up more than 29%.The two countries are touting ambitious infrastructure projects, such as plans for a high-speed rail link between Beijing and Moscow, but not much has materialized yet.
"In general we are skeptical about the stories of a Chinese investment boom in Russia," Emolenko said."China doesn't seem to be so keen -- there are a few projects, but they are relatively small in the grand scheme of things and seem more to be more of a political favor than China's genuine interest in the Russian economy."A landmark gas agreement Russia and China struck in 2014 was celebrated as an example of the new era of partnership. Under the deal, Russia is set to start delivering 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Siberia to China in 2018, with the possibility of increasing shipments to 60 billion cubic meters a year.But plans for a second pipeline to increase shipments to China are now showing serious cracks. The two countries are having a hard time agreeing on financing due to the global slump in oil prices. Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom, which is in charge of the project, is not commenting on the status of negotiations. Russian media say the $55 billion second pipeline project has been "postponed indefinitely."China has stepped up in one area -- lending money to Russian business.Many Russian companies are struggling to repay foreign debts, because they've been largely cut off from European and U.S. financing. China has become the biggest foreign lender to Russian companies -- loans totaled $11.6 billion in 2014, compared with $7.5 billion in 2013.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

Post by Austin »

Look like more than China , Soko is funding most of the programs

Deals worth $70 bn to be signed at Vladivostok forum
A large number of these agreements will be signed between Russian enterprises and South Korea’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Energy and the Export-Import Bank of Korea.

“This bank offers very good conditions,” Galushka said, adding that some companies in the Russian Far East already had debt-financing agreements with China Development Bank.
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Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis

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1965 War: Why India quit when it was winning

2 September 2015 Rakesh Krishnan Simha

On the 50th anniversary of India’s 22-day war with Pakistan, we examine Russia’s role in the peace agreement, Shastri’s mysterious death, and why India agreed to end the war when it was close to a decisive victory.



In May 1964, Indian Defence Minister Yashwantrao Chavan made a visit to the Pentagon, the HQ of the American defence department. Chavan, who was trying to rapidly modernise the Indian military, requested the Americans to sell India the F-104 Starfighter – the most advanced jet fighter of that era.

Although the US had supplied the F-104 and the F-86 Sabres in large numbers – virtually free of cost – to Pakistan, India’s request was rebuffed in an extremely crude manner.

In his brilliant little book, ‘1965 War: The Inside Story’, former Maharashtra chief secretary R.D. Pradhan narrates what US Defence Secretary Robert McNamara told Chavan: “Mr Minister, your air force is like a museum. I wonder whether you are aware of the variety of aircraft in your air force. You are still operating with Hunters, Spitfires, Vampires, Liberators, Harvards – exotic names of World War II vintage. All these aircraft are only worthy of finding a place in a museum.”
пустым не оставлять!!

1971 War: How Russia sank Nixon’s gunboat diplomacy

McNamara suggested that until India disbanded that fleet, it was no use acquiring any sophisticated aircraft.

What the American secretary said was offensive – and true. Although the US did not offer any help, what India did with its antiquated planes and vintage tanks remains the stuff of legend. Pradhan says, “With that background, it was an exhilarating moment when some of those junk planes, such as the Mysteres, Vampires and Hunters performed brilliantly against Pakistan’s sophisticated F-86s. In fact, the indigenously built Gnat, a small beaver-like fighter, brought down several F-86s.”

The 1965 War remains memorable for two things. One was a monumental miscalculation by Pakistan. President Ayub Khan, egged on by his scheming and feckless Foreign Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, sent a top-secret order to his army chief General Mohammed Musa: “As a general rule, Hindu morale would not stand for more than a couple of hard blows delivered at the right time and the right place. Such opportunities should therefore be sought and exploited.”

Secondly, India’s leadership – as it has done consistently over the past 2500 years – frittered away on the negotiating table what the soldiers won on the battlefield. Pradhan writes: “In a way, India’s leadership, out of its sense of restraint, fair play and endeavour to seek enduring peace and goodwill with the neighbour, seems to have missed opportunities to solve the problem.”

At the end of a bruising 22-day war, India held 1920 square kilometres of Pakistani territory while Pakistan only held 550 square kilometres of Indian land. The Haji Pir pass was also captured by Indian soldiers after an epic battle. And yet India surrendered everything at the Tashkent Declaration in January 1966.

Western ways

The US, which was embroiled in a bloody war of its own in Vietnam, acted mostly through the United Nations. However, the defining western aim was to see their satellite Pakistan get through the war without getting battered. This view is amply summed by Chavan, who wrote about British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s ceasefire proposal at a time when India had the upper hand: “I insisted on military advantages being maintained. The UK proposals look like a trap.”

As three divisions of the Indian Army were slicing across Pakistani defences and thundering across the Ichhogil canal to Lahore, Wilson sent a message to Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Ayub Khan: “Both governments bear responsibility for the steady escalation which has subsequently occurred, and today’s attack in the Lahore area presents us with a completely new situation.”

Wilson’s message implied that India was as much to blame for the war on the subcontinent as Pakistan. “Shastri more or less brushed aside that message,” says Pradhan. “Bias on the part of Britain would rule out the UK from playing any effective role in events after the ceasefire.”

Russian role

Russia, which was following the events with deep interest, maintained its traditional stand that Kashmir was part of India. Pradhan writes Moscow accepted the disturbances in Kashmir had been created by infiltrators from Pakistan.

Russia also backed India at the United Nations. K. Vijaykrishnan writes in ‘The Soviet Union and the India-Pakistan War, 1965’, “Support was available for India on some important technical points and objections India had raised,” he says. Russia supported the Indian position that the Security Council should only deal with "questions directly connected with the settlement of the armed conflict” and not drag in the Kashmir issue.

Fending off China was a trickier affair. Russia did not want an open confrontation with Beijing, but Moscow decided it would not remain a passive spectator if India had to battle on two fronts. According to Vijaykrishnan, during the thick of the conflict, India received a reassuring message from Russian Premier Alexei Kosygin indicating support in the event of a Chinese attack.

Sisir Gupta writes in ‘India and the International System’ that India was aware Russia would never like to see India humbled or weakened. “A strong and friendly India occupying a pre-eminent position in South Asia was very much a Soviet foreign policy interest. Notwithstanding the fluctuations in the Soviet attitude and the zig-zag nature of the course it pursued, there was throughout a broad assumption underlying Soviet policies towards South Asia, that India was the key factor in the region and that any policy which created distrust and dissension between the two countries was to be avoided.”

China got the message and backed off despite Pakistani appeals for help. Chinese strongman Mao Tse-Tung was reported to have told Ayub Khan that "if there is a nuclear war, it is Peking and not Rawalpindi that will be the target", writes G.W. Chaudhury in ‘India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Major Powers: Politics of a Divided Subcontinent’.

Road to Tashkent

With the US disinterested in the conflict and the UK showing its true anti-India and pro-Pakistan colours, it was left to Russia to play honest broker.
Kudankulam
Read section: History

It was after some initial hesitation that both India and Pakistan accepted the Russian offer. Ayub Khan later said that Pakistan went to Tashkent as it did not want to risk a veto by Moscow.

There was another reason for Pakistan’s eagerness for talks. According to Pradhan, “The continued presence of Indian troops on the east side of the Ichhogil canal, facing Lahore city, was hurting Pakistan’s pride.” The heat was clearly on Islamabad.

Before leaving for Tashkent, Shastri – who was hero-worshiped by Indian soldiers – had promised his victorious troops that he would not return the land captured from the enemy after so many sacrifices. But after six days of talks, Shastri proved once again that Indians are bad negotiators. He gave away everything.

Was Shastri feeling the pressure from the international community? Most likely not, but perhaps he felt – like his successor Indira Gandhi after the 1971 war – that showing leniency towards Pakistan would buy its goodwill.

Mystery of Shastri’s death

If you were Shastri, you would dread having to face the Indian soldier back home. Hundreds of them had died while capturing the strategic Haji Pir pass, which if India had kept, would have forever nullified Pakistan’s advantage in Kashmir.

On the night of January 10, 1966, the diminutive Prime Minister but a giant among men died of a heart attack. It was his fourth cardiac seizure and was likely triggered by his anxiety at having to face an irate public and having to look into the eyes of his jawans – soldiers – whose hopes he had dashed.

There have been all sorts of conspiracy theories but the reality is that none of the major countries benefitted from his death. Russia had scored a spectacular diplomatic coup, America fully supported the Tashkent Agreement, and Pakistan was happy to get its land back.

That the Indian Prime Minister died of a heart attack comes from a most unlikely source. Shortly after Mikhail Gorbachev’s liberalisation policies in 1991, Soviet Land magazine in India published an account by an ex-KGB officer.

According to the former intelligence agent, the KGB was spying on both the Indian and Pakistani delegations in order to find out how much each country was willing to yield during the negotiations. When Shastri started getting a seizure, the KGB was listening but decided not to alert his aides because that would give away their game and lead to a diplomatic showdown with India.

Prelude to Tashkent

Having dissected what transpired at the negotiating table, we need to discuss the prelude to Tashkent.

Although Pakistan was on the verge of being trounced – unlike in 1971 and 1999 when it really got hammered – India generously agreed to a ceasefire after repeated pleas from the major powers.

Why did India stop fighting when it had Pakistan reeling? Why did Chavan and Shastri, who swatted away western pressure and gave a free hand to the Indian military, cave in?

The problem was army chief Jayanto Nath Chaudhuri. The Kolkata-born general came from an affluent background and had become army chief purely on the back of family connections and pure luck. He was elevated following the resignation of another Sandhurst-educated general, Pran Nath Thapar, the army chief of the 1962 War.

Chaudhuri’s mentors were the Sandhurst educated British generals – who had utterly failed before the Germans and Japanese during World War II – and predictably he also lacked war fighting qualities. “He was so good on paper that Chavan often wondered how good he would be in warfare,” writes Pradhan.

Chavan mentions in his war diary that Chaudhuri would frequently lapse into depression. Each time the Indian army suffered a setback, the general would walk into the Defence Minister’s room, and Chavan had to give him a pep talk. Chaudhuri so completely lacked courage that Chavan often forced him to visit the front and personally take stock.
пустым не оставлять!!

Lal Bahadur Shastri’s death in Tashkent still raises questions

Pradhan writes, “On September 20 when the Prime Minister asked Chaudhuri whether India could expect to gain if the war continued for a few days more, he informed the PM that the army was coming to an end of its ammunition holdings and could not sustain fighting for much longer. Chaudhuri advised acceptance of the ceasefire proposal. It was later discovered in overall terms only 14-20 per cent of the Indian Army’s ammunition stock had been used up. At the moment of our greatest advantage the army chief’s non-comprehension of the intricacies of the long-range logistics deprived India of a decisive victory.”

In contrast, Pakistan had expended 80 per cent of its ammo. It had also lost 250 of its latest US-supplied tanks.

Chaudhuri was also criticised for his lack of daring. When the Pakistani cities of Sialkot and Lahore could have been easily taken after the dash and bravery shown by Indian troops, Chaudhuri told Shastri: “We must move with the caution and wisdom of an elephant. We will take them in God’s good time.”

In fact, when the Pakistan Army attacked in the Khem Kharan sector in Punjab, Chaudhuri ordered the Army Commander Harbaksh Singh to withdraw to a safer position. The commander refused, and what followed was the Battle of Assal Uttar – the greatest tank battle since Kursk in 1943. The Indian counter attack on the night of September 10 was so ferocious that by the morning they had knocked out 70 Pakistani tanks.

But what the Battle of Assal Uttar will be memorable for are the 25 enemy tanks found abandoned with their engines running and wireless sets on. It was the perfect metaphor for the plight of the Pakistan Army.

Had India kept its head, today we’d have a lot more to celebrate.

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/stranger_than_ ... ing_394095
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