Continuing with the topic of what has changed in 15 years, people who have followed reports of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program may recall that Pakistan was not supposed to have enough Uranium for endless manufacture of weapons. The numbers of weapons and their weights were speculated upon and then forgotten.
Now we have an entirely new genre of reports. In the new reports Pakistan has tactical nuclear weapons ready to be shot at attacking Indian forces from the Hatf missile with a range of 60 km. Also Pakistan is now surging ahead in the numbers of nukes and is set to reach a stage where they will have more nukes than China.
Clearly the people who write these reports and release them for public consumption have either seen something new or have started thinking differently, so I tried to dig into what has changed in the last 15 years. More puzzling to me is the apparent lack of concern at Pakistan's wild proliferation. No one seems to be worrying a lot. Pakistan, - i.e the Paki army, for its part has never argued against these reports except for one recent denial. Most Pakis have supported the idea that Pakistan is making small tactical nukes and point at India's Pu stocks as an excuse for Pakistan's weapon count proliferation
When I go and look at various reports "then" and "now" they are consistent in saying that Pakistan's internal Uranium ore stocks should run out by 2020. They are also consistent in calculating the increasing amounts of weapons grade Uranium and Pu Pakistan had in 1998, 2001, 2011 etc. I have tried to make sense of what has changed and what has not.
As regards weapons grade fisile material - it appears that Shitistan will be expected to have by the 2015 to 2020 time about 3000 kg of WG (Weapons Grade) Uranium and 450 kg of WG Pu. So what has changed?
What has changed is the way observers and "experts" do their calculations. In the old days Pakistan (and NoKo) were dismissed as having "crude" weapons needing 25 kg U or 6 kg Pu. Using such a calculation Pakistan can get at most 120 Uranium bombs and 75 Pu bombs for a total of 185 weapons.
Now they are saying that design of a working bomb is the least of the problems. Most countries that get on with the process will soon be able to design light and compact bombs. Of course no one is talking about 200 kt Thermonuclear bombs. They are talking about working fission bombs with relatively low yields of 1 to 15 kilotons depending on efficiency, size, weight and design. Now they are saying "medium tech" level nations like Pakistan can make Uranium bombs with just 6 kg U and Pu bombs with 2 kg. Using this metric one could calculate that Pakistan could have 500 warheads of Uranium and 225 Pu warheads giving a total of over 700 warheads. In general Pakistan has the choice of having about 180 bigger weapons for which they may or may not have the delivery capability, or 700 small warheads of somewhat dubious yield to be placed on Hatf/Nasr. Or some combination of the two.
I spent some time looking at details of what has been achieved and what is achievable terms of warheads
In general I find that most "big bums" - ie anything more than 10 kt up to 150 kt tend to have warhead diameters of 40 cm or a bit more. So an actual missile diameter would be larger than that. Warheads can get smaller than 30 cm diameter, but efficiency goes down for the amount of fissile material used and ultimately the bomb yield may be 0.2 kt or just 1 kt.
With Shitistan's Hatf being 30 cm diameter and Wiki claiming warheads of 0.5 to 5 kt the data falls on the borderline. It should be possible to build a less than 30 cm warhead by reducing everything but it may well give only 0.2 kt. Even 5 Kt may be an overestimate. However if Pakis have built such warheads they will not care whether it is 0.2 kt or 2 kt. Anything that goes "boom" without prior testing will be taken as success.
The real issue is what will they do with these warheads even if they do work?
Here are some relevant self explanatory images
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/k56 ... -table.jpg
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/k56 ... yyggum.jpg
Used in a battlefield against NBC ready armor - a 0.2 kiloton warhead is unlikely to do much damage or stop an Indian advance. In return India has no way of retaliating other than by hitting deep inland targets of Pakistan. Use of tactical nukes by Pakistan will ensure that Pakistan is finished.
Of course Pakis may choose to test Hindu willpower or cowardice by launching a nuke at an Indian attacking column. The only question is how much they can provoke before they get nuked.
Pakistan could use one small nuke within its own borders and claim that India is cowardly because we did not retaliate and Pakistan survived nuclear war. I would not put this beyond the Pakjabi army. They have done worse in the past.