West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Sep 2015 14:25

Russia has allegedly deputed a secrective IL-20 Coot intel aircraft to syria theater to sniff out rebel and daesh sigcomms.
none have spotted it on ground yet using available imagery.

I figure they might depute some backfires/blackjacks to a base in southern russia if they need heavy bombing later, will fly over a permitted airlane over the caspian, iran, north iraq, hit targets and fly back.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 28 Sep 2015 14:28

Saudi Arabia withdraws overseas funds
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/27/financia ... funds.html

Saudi Arabia has withdrawn tens of billions of dollars from global asset managers as the oil-rich kingdom seeks to cut its widening deficit and reduce exposure to volatile equities markets amid the sustained slump in oil prices.

The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency's foreign reserves have slumped by nearly $73 billion since oil prices started to decline last year as the kingdom keeps spending to sustain the economy and fund its military campaign in Yemen.

The central bank is also turning to domestic banks to finance a bond programme to offset the rapid decline in reserves.

Al-Nimr sought democracy; will Saudi Arabia give him death today?
http://www.catchnews.com/international- ... 15503.html

Death, not democracy

Saudi Arabia is set to behead, then crucify Ali Mohammed Al Nimr

Al-Nimr was sentenced to death for pro-democracy protests

The protestor was just 17 when he was arrested for joining the 2012 Arab Spring

Outrage around globe

Al-Nimr's marcy pleas has been rejected leading to an international outrage

Hacktivists blocked Saudi websites demanding the killing be called off

Several statesmen, celebrities support #freenimr

History of violations

Friends like the US still stand by Saudi Arabia

It has used weapons brought from the US allegedly for war crimes in Yemen

Death sentence are not an exception in Saudi Arabia

Amnesty ranks the kingdom third among executioners

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 28 Sep 2015 14:29

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34375875

The west is coming round to accepting Assad "temporarily". It seems that the Russians are getting more support from the western population than their own govts.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Sep 2015 14:33

>>why the fvck are Arabs such retards at warfare?

thats a very sweeping statement . it might only be true of the rich gulf sheikhdoms and KSA armies...a tiny fraction of arab world.

iran has good units. iraq used to have good repub guard divisions. jordanians and egyptians have given a good account of themselves vs israel.
yemenis we already know are a hard bunch of men.
probably some tough SOBs in the maghrebi belt like the touaregs and berbers.
hezbollah are pretty seasoned.

it all depends on morale, choices, training, leadership.

in the 1973 arab-israeli war the egyptians hammered the israelis pretty bad, troops bravely took out tanks using primitive AT3 sagger missiles.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Sep 2015 14:35

>>It seems that the Russians are getting more support from the western population than their own govts.

the recent refugee influx has brought home(literally) to western people the consequences of fomenting trouble in middle east...they realize the relatively lavish govt supports they enjoy will be spread across 10s of millions more needy people if this circus carries on unabated.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 Sep 2015 15:10

Beyond Social Benefits the rise of extremism and crime with unchecked migrant is a serious issue , this may not corp up very immediately like 1 or next 6 months but in next 2-3 years this will be a real problem and we are not even seeing a end to refugee inflow yet.

After the current dust settles down the EU will have to think hard on any future military support they provide to US , US is protected by vast seas so they dont have to worry about refugees but for EU which is land locked they will face real problems.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 28 Sep 2015 15:58

The Russians demonstrated just that (good observation

),sending their bombers to the Gulf,in exercises round a year ago.Both Bears and Backfires were used if I recollect. Since O'Bomber failed to send in his B-52s,the Russians may be forced to do just that,bomb the daylights out of ISIS.

Fisk of the Independent UK speculates that Putin is planning a big offensive using the Syrian ground forces beefed up with new Russian arms,to take the fight to ISIS and recover some lost territory ,perhaps Palmyra.It is also an opportunity for Russia to test out some of its latest weaponry,just as the West/US did during their spats over the last two decades. There appears to be a surge in interest in Russian arms from Arab/ME nations as their disappointment with the US increases. Egypt is once more buying Russian arms in large qty. apart from Iran who now can buy sophisticated Russian SAMs,etc. which they couldn't before due to the sanctions imposed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Sep 2015 18:49

attacks of civilian areas by the KSA continues

(R-e-u-t-e-r-s) Helicopter attack kills 30 civilians in Yemen village - residents, medics

Apache helicopters fired rockets at the village of Bani Zela in Hajjah province, 10 km (6.5 miles) from the Saudi border, killing at least 25 civilians, including women and children, the residents and medics said.

The helicopters returned for a second strike as residents and medical teams were trying to evacuate casualties, killing three medics and two more civilians, they said.

http://reuters.com/article/idUSL5N11X0CF20150927

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Sep 2015 22:30

Looks like Saudis are getting really desperate.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Sep 2015 06:25

KSAF has mercilessly bombed urban areas including in the capital Sanaa for 6 months now. not sure if they claim to be targeting enemy hideouts or just random.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 29 Sep 2015 06:50

Singha wrote:Russia has allegedly deputed a secrective IL-20 Coot intel aircraft to syria theater to sniff out rebel and daesh sigcomms.
none have spotted it on ground yet using available imagery.

I figure they might depute some backfires/blackjacks to a base in southern russia if they need heavy bombing later, will fly over a permitted airlane over the caspian, iran, north iraq, hit targets and fly back.

my syrian friend told me that russia has over 20-24 militray aircraft stationed to support Asad govt.Every night about 4-6 hrs total curfew imposed in a highway near the military base with lot of supplies etc moving to and fro.

many syrians were fed up of Assad due to poltical differenecs but never had to fight for their very survivial with isis/rebels running amok. Now many are wishing for Assad to survive and rule .

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 29 Sep 2015 07:06

Interesting conversation with couple of my middle east friends who belong to both abrahamic relgions.
to sumarise-- everyhting is of their view-moi contribution is to lend my ears only.

koran is vague with some mumbo jumbo. many msulims interpret differently according to their fancy. There are always some supporters for each interpretation. Some get violent - the more violent and brutal one is - bettre chance of success. people who want peace are hunted down unless they mind their own business nd accept others supremacy.
His idea is all islamic scholars fom all regions should come under one roof thrash out the islamic difffrences and come to a interpretation to make it official. violent ones must be removed.
he does know this will be non starter but hopes somehow it will occur.
he wants saudi royal famly to lose influecnce and power to wahabbi every muslim.

USA led coalition screwed the middle east due to their poor knowledge of the place and history.
Middle east throuout hx has ahd strong rulers who keep the tribal identities in check. These rulers are more brutal then the tribal chiefs. Hence peace is maintianed. Once the rulers and their coecive support structure is loosened , tribal idnetities emerge and they go back to their age old traditions of fighting.
-- saddam gadaffi assad and many others are examples. They have to be brutal than the opposing tribal chiefs to mainain their grip over the land.

Usa by detroying them have made middle east go up in flames.

They feel if money in form of oil is exhausted violent islam may be tamed as finance an important contribution is removed.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Sep 2015 08:26

Saudi royal calls for regime change in Riyadh
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... ing-salman
( This is the old family feud: Now one party want WEST to take side)

A senior Saudi prince has launched an unprecedented call for change in the country’s leadership, as it faces its biggest challenge in years in the form of war, plummeting oil prices and criticism of its management of Mecca, scene of last week’s hajj tragedy.The prince, one of the grandsons of the state’s founder, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, has told the Guardian that there is disquiet among the royal family – and among the wider public – at the leadership of King Salman, who acceded the throne in January.The prince, who is not named for security reasons, wrote two letters earlier this month calling for the king to be removed.“The king is not in a stable condition and in reality the son of the king [Mohammed bin Salman] is ruling the kingdom,” the prince said. “So four or possibly five of my uncles will meet soon to discuss the letters. They are making a plan with a lot of nephews and that will open the door. A lot of the second generation is very anxious.”“The public are also pushing this very hard, all kinds of people, tribal leaders,” the prince added. “They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster.”

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Sep 2015 09:27

there are some 2500+ members in the royal family and its opaque in the open source, barring when they cavort on vacations and trips to the west.

but generally when such inbred clans cut off from the society fall, the fall is hard and brutal with a lot of bloodshed. marie antoinette and the french revolution for example. or the russian revolution. or the various convulsions in china. months of purges and executions and show trials to tag 'counter revolutionary elements' and 'splittists'.

KSA being short of funds to spread wahabi influence around the world is probably good news for all, except pakistan army and jihadi tanzeems. internal turmoil and loss of prestige also breaks the delusions some people have in south asia that even their c**p is perfumed and to be worshipped.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Sep 2015 09:32

More trouble brewing for the Saudis.A palace revolt is a distinct possibility from this report.
With the official death toll of the Haj "crush" now over 1000 ,and a war taking its toll in the Yemen,where a "wedding party" were the latest victims of Saudi bombings,the new king is on shaky ground .

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... ing-salman

Saudi royal calls for regime change in Riyadh

Plea by grandson of state’s founder comes as falling oil prices, war in Yemen and loss of faith in authority buffet leadership of King Salman

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman. One Saudi royal claims that the king’s son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ‘is ruling the country’.

A senior Saudi prince has launched an unprecedented call for change in the country’s leadership, as it faces its biggest challenge in years in the form of war, plummeting oil prices and criticism of its management of Mecca, scene of last week’s hajj tragedy.

The prince, one of the grandsons of the state’s founder, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, has told the Guardian that there is disquiet among the royal family – and among the wider public – at the leadership of King Salman, who acceded the throne in January.

The prince, who is not named for security reasons, wrote two letters earlier this month calling for the king to be removed.

“The king is not in a stable condition and in reality the son of the king [Mohammed bin Salman] is ruling the kingdom,” the prince said. “So four or possibly five of my uncles will meet soon to discuss the letters. They are making a plan with a lot of nephews and that will open the door. A lot of the second generation is very anxious.”

“The public are also pushing this very hard, all kinds of people, tribal leaders,” the prince added. “They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster.”

A clutch of factors are buffeting King Salman, his crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, and the deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

A double tragedy in Mecca – the collapse of a crane that killed more than 100, followed by a stampede last week that killed 700 – has raised questions not just about social issues, but also about royal stewardship of the holiest site in Islam.

As usual, the Saudi authorities have consistently shrugged off any suggestion that a senior member of the government may be responsible for anything that has gone wrong.

Local people, however, have made clear on social media and elsewhere that they no longer believe such claims.

“The people inside [the kingdom] know what’s going on but they can’t say. The problem is the corruption in using the resources of the country for building things in the right form,” said an activist who lives in Mecca but did not want to be named for fear of repercussions.

“Unfortunately the government points the finger against the lower levels, saying for example: ‘Where are the ambulances? Where are the healthcare workers?’ They try to escape the real reason of such disaster,” he added.

Pilgrims circle the Kaaba shrine in Mecca where more than 700 died during a stampede at the annual hajj pilgrimage. Photograph: Mohammed Al-Shaikh/AFP/Getty Images

Saudi religious and political legitimacy is predicated on their claim that they manage the holy sites properly and make them safely accessible for all Muslims. Since there are no monarchies in Islam and Saudi Arabia itself is not mentioned in the Qur’an, legitimacy is a fundamental issue for the Saudis and the Hajj disasters have been extremely damaging.

But just as urgent is oil, the price of which has dropped more than 50% in the past year. On Monday, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia has withdrawn as much as $70bn (£46bn) from overseas investment funds to shore up its fiscal position in the face of tumbling oil prices

According to Alastair Newton, director of Alavan Business Advisory, Saudi Arabia’s published budget this year was based on oil trading at about $90 a barrel. But because of costly ad hoc items such as royal largesse after King Salman’s succession, the war in Yemen, and domestic security against the Isis threat, the fiscal position is only in balance at about $110.

With oil now trading below $50, fiscal weakness is starting to tell. The Saudi benchmark Tadawul All Share index has fallen by more than 30% in the past 12 months.

“They have enough reserves to sustain this situation for at least one year although it is very costly for them,” said Khairallah Khairallah, a former managing editor of the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper.

The International Monetary Fund is already predicting Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit to exceed $107bn this year. Yet the budget announced for next year has marginally increased.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Photograph: Charles Platiau/Reuters

“The king is in charge of oil policy in the kingdom together with his son Mohammed bin Salman. Mohammed bin Salman is also responsible for [state oil firm] Aramco. The crown prince [Mohammed bin Nayef] is mainly focused on security. These are the main players in Saudi Arabia. They divide the responsibility,” said Khairallah Khairallah.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a new arrival to the Saudi senior leadership team but has already become one of the most controversial.

Although still very young by Saudi standards – officially 35 but rumoured to be much younger – he holds a multitude of posts including minister of defence and chair of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs, which is the country’s main economic policymaking committee.

This makes him responsible for many of Saudi Arabia’s problems, above all the war in neighbouring Yemen, where rebel Houthis have come under attack from Saudi aircraft and ground forces.

Many Saudis are sickened by the sight of the Arab world’s richest country pummelling its poorest, and as the cost in lives and treasure grows, criticism is mounting that Prince Mohammed bin Salman– whose unofficial nickname is “Reckless” – rushed in without a proper military strategy or an exit plan.

Smoke billows upward after airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition on Houthi rebels in Sana’a, Yemen. Photograph: Yahya Arhab/EPA

“This is a war against the Yemeni nation and against Yemen becoming independent,” said Sgt Maj Dakheel bin Naser Al Qahtani, a former head of air force operations at King Abdulaziz airbase, Dhahran, who defected from the Saudi armed forces last year.

“It has no legitimate political foundation and it is not what the people want,” he said. “Ninety per cent of people in Saudi Arabia don’t want this to happen, exactly the opposite of what the media shows.

“It has come about due to the absence of a national citizens’ establishment in Saudi Arabia and because Al Saud have put their own interests ahead of the national interest.”

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Sep 2015 09:53

CNN: The French and Sunni Ummah are opposing accommodating Assad in any form , while the US and UK are fine to have him till a transition government is in place.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Sep 2015 10:05

Su-34 in Syria

http://spioenkop.blogspot.rs/2015/09/ru ... ar-su.html

I wonder why IrAF is not joining in with their aircraft in Syria ?

Would we see PLAAF in Syria any time soon ?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Sep 2015 10:12

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html

Putin and Obama clash over Syria as Russia calls for 'anti-Hitler' type alliance against Isil

World leaders including Barack Obama, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Raul Castro and Robert Mugabe speak at 70th UN General Assembly in New York *(What about one N.Modi? That's the Britsh*t media for you)

By Andrew Marszal, David Lawler in Washington and Barney Henderson

29 Sep 2015
Putin snubs Obama on Syria

Vladimir Putin snubbed Barack Obama and revived Russia’s historic role in the Middle East on Monday by calling for a new “broad coalition” to fight Isil based on co-operation with the Assad regime, report Richard Spencer, Harriet Alexander in New York and Roland Oliphant in Moscow.

In his long-awaited speech at the United Nations, the Russian president fiercely attacked American policy in Syria and around the world and criticised the West for “exporting social experiments” in the form of democratic revolutions, which he blamed for the Middle East crisis.

He said he had called for a new Syrian peace conference to be attended by a “contact group” of outside powers including Russia and the United States, as well as regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Iran.

President Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin shake hands for the cameras
President Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin shake hands for the cameras before the start of a bilateral meeting at the United Nations headquarters September 28, 2015 in New York City Photo: Getty

Despite the fact that Russia is not among the countries led by the US currently conducting operations against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil), Mr Putin followed up reports that it was co-ordinating intelligence sharing between Iran, Iraq and Syria by putting Moscow at the centre of the world’s “war on terror”.

He went so far as to compare his plans to the alliance that fought Hitler in the Second World War. “We must address the problems that we are all facing and create a broad anti-terror coalition,” he said.

• The White House has long stopped trying to remove Assad from power

After meeting Mr Obama, Mr Putin expanded on his theme, suggesting that countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey could join Iran in a new coalition together backed by a fresh UN resolution. He could not “exclude” Russia co-operating with the US in such a coalition, he said. But he insisted that he would not send Russian ground forces in against Isil, raising questions as to whether the key to his new strategy was the fight against the terror group or to help the regime in its broader war against an armed opposition of all stripes.

Mr Putin’s gambit – which had been much briefed in advance – sets up Russia as a competitor with the US for leadership in the Syrian crisis and in the Middle East in general. It also makes clear that Mr Putin is going to stand by his ally President Bashar al-Assad.

• Vladimir Putin forces the US to listen, but offers no solutions

Earlier, Mr Obama had conceded that the US’s previous insistence that Iran, Syria’s principal regional backer, should have no part in peace talks was a mistake. “The United States is prepared to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict,” he said.

He also indicated that he remained unwilling to try to restore order in Syria using America’s military might – citing his own army’s failures in Iraq.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Sep 2015 10:21

The IAF can now watch the SU-34s and Rafales in action and compare the two.The SU-34s come in at 1/4th or 1/5th the cost of a Rafale,latest figs! The DM should take a real hard look at the Syrian,even though the $9B Rafale deal appears imminent.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Sep 2015 10:24

Singha wrote:>>why the fvck are Arabs such retards at warfare?

thats a very sweeping statement . it might only be true of the rich gulf sheikhdoms and KSA armies...a tiny fraction of arab world.

iran has good units. iraq used to have good repub guard divisions. jordanians and egyptians have given a good account of themselves vs israel.
yemenis we already know are a hard bunch of men.
probably some tough SOBs in the maghrebi belt like the touaregs and berbers.
hezbollah are pretty seasoned.

it all depends on morale, choices, training, leadership.

in the 1973 arab-israeli war the egyptians hammered the israelis pretty bad, troops bravely took out tanks using primitive AT3 sagger missiles.

Just a nitpick....Iranians are not and were never considered arab...they were always ajami or furriner, ditto with wannabe Arabs like the Egyptians...they too are ajami and al misri, misr = egypt...iraqis are also mainly ajami.

Wonlee Saudis and some gulf states, both najdi and hejazi = pure Arabs

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Sep 2015 10:47

true. I stand corrected.

are Nejd (the highlands) kind of adjacent to the coastal Hejaj belt?

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 29 Sep 2015 10:53

Austin wrote:After the current dust settles down the EU will have to think hard on any future military support they provide to US , US is protected by vast seas so they dont have to worry about refugees but for EU which is land locked they will face real problems.

None of the refugees went to Russia either, whole world is made buffoons by these superpowers where in which they start fires all around and they are last ones to get impacted

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Sep 2015 11:39

the police chief is one Gen Jangal Bagh.

CNN
Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN)Afghan security forces arrived in Kunduz on Tuesday morning and have started retaking areas of the city from the Taliban, an Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman said.

"A big military operation to clear all Kunduz city is about to start," spokesman Sediq Sediqqi said.

The Kunduz prison, a police compound and the neighborhood of Zir Dawra are among the areas Afghan forces have secured, Sediqqi said.

A day earlier, Sediqqi said Kunduz had largely fallen into "the hand of enemies."

Sayed Sarwar Hussaini, a spokesman for the Kunduz police chief, said Taliban insurgents seized the main roundabout in the city and made it to the prison, where they freed more than 500 inmates.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Sep 2015 12:14

symontk wrote:
Austin wrote:After the current dust settles down the EU will have to think hard on any future military support they provide to US , US is protected by vast seas so they dont have to worry about refugees but for EU which is land locked they will face real problems.
None of the refugees went to Russia either, whole world is made buffoons by these superpowers where in which they start fires all around and they are last ones to get impacted

Russia got lot of refugees from Ukraine about 6.57 Lakh as per UN . These Refuges are not interested to go any where other then Europe due to economic reasons and perhaps because EU is more prosperous.
Although Russia did state they will accept Refugees if they come https://www.rt.com/politics/314809-russ ... pt-syrian/

US is just too far for their dhingi to travel in choppy waters. I think the refugees are not just from Syria but Libya , Iraq and other places where West has finger print

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Sep 2015 13:51

saudis have sent photos of the dead to all consulates abroad and given access to Govts to view them . death toll was around 1100

“Saudi authorities have released photos of 1,090 pilgrims who have died in (the hajj) stampede,” Swaraj wrote on Twitter.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Sep 2015 14:01

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... a-us-assad
Why the west should listen to Putin on Syria

Simon Jenkins

As everyone knows, the only way to stop the slaughter in Syria is for the US and its allies to work with President Assad – and to stop worrying about what looks good

Vladimir Putin at the UN
The result of American and British grandstanding at the UN this week – seeing who can be ruder about Assad – is that Vladimir Putin has gathered ever more cards to his pack. Photograph: Xinhua/Landov/Barcroft Media

Tuesday 29 September 2015

Putin is right. Everyone knows Putin is right, that the only way forward in Syria, if not to eternal slaughter, is via the established government of Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese and Iranian allies.

That is the realpolitik. That is what pragmatism dictates. In the secure west, foreign policy has long been a branch of domestic politics, with added sermonising. “What to do”, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, even Ukraine, has been dictated not by what might work but what looks good. The megaphone is mightier than the brain.
Putin says he can work with Obama despite trading barbs on Syria and Isis
Read more

The result of American and British grandstanding at the UN this week – seeing who can be ruder about Assad – is that Vladimir Putin has gathered ever more cards to his pack. Putin has already performed the two primary duties of a Russian leader, bringing stability and pride. He now faces turbulent Russian minorities across his European frontier and a serious menace from Muslim states to his south. He is perforce becoming a player on a wider stage. He has read Iran, India and Syria correctly. He is no fool.

On a visit to London last June, the veteran diplomat Henry Kissinger pleaded with his audience to see Russia as an ally, not an enemy, against Muslim fundamentalism. Russia and the west shared a civilisation and long-term interests, he said. They had to work as one. It is easy for western democracies, centuries in the making, to sneer at Russia’s imperfections and at Putin’s cynical antics in Ukraine. But the idea that economic sanctions were going to change Moscow’s mind or weaken its kleptocracy was idiotic.

Syria is experiencing the most ghastly anarchy anywhere on earth. If ever there were a case for humanitarian “troops on the ground” it must be here. Those who seek this end cannot pick and choose their merchants of atrocity. All sides in war kill innocent people, including western addicts of air bombing (such as Hilary Benn at the Labour party conference yesterday). Russia has accepted that the forcible toppling of Assad – which Britain has predicted since 2011 – is not a realistic path to peace. If he is to go, it will be after his enemies have been driven back, not before.

The true nature of the west’s commitment in Syria was revealed in Barack Obama’s remark to the UN that “because alternatives are surely worse” is no reason to support tyrants. In other words, American feelgood is more important than Syrian lives. That cosy maxim has guided western policy in the region for over a decade. It has been a disaster. If we have nothing more intelligent to say on Syria, we should listen to Putin. He has.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Sep 2015 14:10

Obama does not need Syria. He has opened up Iran, Cuba and expanded relations across the board. The Syrian headache he will, in my opinion rightly, leave to Hillary and the US military to wade through. It will be a mess. But it is a mess they started. Assad is no angel, but he is much less of a demon than their other allies. And they know it. Now it is just a matter of face. Tragic and stupid.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Sep 2015 16:20

Interesting prediction, JEM. Hilary-rajya (more likely Trumpistan) is more than a year away. With the Russians already in, I wonder what will happen over the coming year. Putin cannot afford a large presence there indefinitely, it's not like Syria has (much) oil yet, unlike Eyerak. Putin's approach is not "advisors" but a whole air force with precision strike capabilities, and special forces. So it looks like he is going to be forced to go after ISIS and all anti-Assad forces full blast.

Unless US/NATO/Israel actively ramp up in favor of ISIS, Putin is going to have free skies to blast away. For the first time, ISIS is facing someone who has the power AND the will to annihilate them.

The weaponry exhibited in Ukraine (Mariupol for example) suggests that Russia has a lot of high-precision firepower that needs a good demonstration to boost sales. First reports suggest that RUAF air strikes are deadly precise, unlike what people were saying about the US efforts in Eyerak.

Wonder about the Chinese role. Will PRC actually project military force that far away, with Persian Gulf chokepoints in between? Russia-China collaboration to wipe out ISIS will change the Middle East map more drastically than anything since 1978. Putin keeps reminding ppl about the anarchy in Libya as well. Wonder if an annihilation campaign in Syria will be followed up with one in Libya.

Oirope now faces an interesting choice. Putin is their best hope to get the refugees back to Syria/Libya/Iraq. Are they going to stand around making faces to please the US/UK? Or send forces to stabilize Syria and Libya? That would explain the exquisite timing of Putin's move (when the refugee crisis finally hit the world headlines), though he must have prepared for a long time.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 29 Sep 2015 18:37

IMHO
GCC, Israel and US cant allow Shia Iran and Syria along with Russia to control the entire region.
Syria,Iran and Russia will be content with keeping control over Shia regions.
So, ISIS is here to stay. Syria and Iraq are effectively partitioned and will stay that way.
Shias, Yazidis or any other minority will be wiped out from ISIS controlled area.

http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl ... arate-ways

srin · Post by **srin** » 29 Sep 2015 18:43

pandyan wrote:Putin is now controlling what issues west brings up. Ukraine is in back burner. Otherwise everbody will be screaming save ukraine and give back the territory

He's taking a big risk. He's got public support as long as he's seen as poking US in the eye. But the moment the first suicide bombing happens and soldiers start getting killed, then public opinion can turn overnight.

Syria isn't Ukraine - doesn't concern the average Russian, so he's taking a very big gamble.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Sep 2015 19:26

Singha wrote:true. I stand corrected.

are Nejd (the highlands) kind of adjacent to the coastal Hejaj belt?

Iirc,
Hejaz is the west...includes Mecca and Medina....early base of power from pre islamic to 19th c
Najd is the East..riyadh etc.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Sep 2015 19:28

UlanBatori wrote: Wonder about the Chinese role. Will PRC actually project military force that far away, with Persian Gulf chokepoints in between? Russia-China collaboration to wipe out ISIS will change the Middle East map more drastically than anything since 1978. Putin keeps reminding ppl about the anarchy in Libya as well. Wonder if an annihilation campaign in Syria will be followed up with one in Libya.
.

Cheen is probably going to bankroll Russia...New axis if forming

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Sep 2015 19:29

I wonder if a few SAMs might leak into Houthistan and give the KSAF a rude shock. Plus some NATO anti-tank weapons 'captured from the Saudis' during Houthi picnics inside KSA. Should be plenty of those available from fleeing UkBapZis last winter.

Markoji: PeeAllSee walships seen heading that way inside PG already, so it's more than just bankroll. Question is what else. Probably a few friendly humanitarian missile deliveries. When they tried sending in fleighters, those were bothered by pilates, so now they may be using walships. I doubt if even USN is going to stop a PLN walship on the high seas without a declaration of wal.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Sep 2015 19:39

Would make for perfect foil for India's rise to pole position, not to mention first class entertainment, with occasional platitude thrown in by Namo about keeping the peace and what not, had it not been for the ch**iya neighbor to the west..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Sep 2015 19:57

KSAF seems intent on bombing any gathering people. section 144 crpf has been imposed and any gathering >5 will be bombed.

131 dead in Yemen after air strike hits wedding party
Daily News & Analysis - ‎1 hour ago‎

The death toll from an air strike on a wedding party in Yemen has jumped to 131, medics said on Tuesday, in one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in Yemen's war that drew strong condemnation from the UN secretary-general Ban ki-Moon.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 11:14

bleak situation in Kunduz - read it all

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/world ... liban.html

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 11:20

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... d-in-syria

Noone is impressed by the brutality of ISIS. Just shows how human rights is just a trick and no more.
Assad remains the bone of contention for gulf and the west.

“There is no future for Assad in Syria,” Jubeir told journalists at the UN general assembly. “There are two options for a settlement in Syria. One option is a political process where there would be a transitional council. The other option is a military option, which also would end with the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power.”

“This could be a more lengthy process and a more destructive process but the choice is entirely that of Bashar al-Assad.” The foreign minister did not specify how Assad would be forcibly removed, but pointed out that Saudi Arabia is already backing “moderate rebels” in the civil war.

BTW US has stopped traning `moderate rebels`. So it seems from this `full of contradictions` news article.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/ ... U820150929

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 11:20

http://blog.newcropshop.com/wp-content/ ... tribe-.jpg

pic of a people called Kuchi nomads in afghanistan..who used to range as far south as the indus valley. probably western indian in origin. their women do not wear veils.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 11:23

^^ Singha Must be one of those probing mission to see how Afghanistan/US forces react and how they fight in Kunduz, ISI/Talib would be preparing for bigger mission in months and years ahead

amit · Post by **amit** » 30 Sep 2015 11:28

Cain Marko wrote:
UlanBatori wrote: Wonder about the Chinese role. Will PRC actually project military force that far away, with Persian Gulf chokepoints in between? Russia-China collaboration to wipe out ISIS will change the Middle East map more drastically than anything since 1978. Putin keeps reminding ppl about the anarchy in Libya as well. Wonder if an annihilation campaign in Syria will be followed up with one in Libya.
.
Cheen is probably going to bankroll Russia...New axis if forming

If Cheen does get involved, especially in the fighting, it would be interesting to see what happens to all its grand plans for our Western neighbor's gazillion trillion dollar economic corridor. Cheeni workers would be fair game.

I wonder if this would be another case of Cheen biting off more than it can chew? Projecting hard power is not just about having a lot of money and even equipment, hardcore geopolitical manoeuvring requires a lot of experience, the US has it so does UK and also to some extent Russia with memories of Soviet Union. But Cheen?? Bullying South China Sea neighbors is one thing but getting mixed up in the Middle East cesspool is something else altogether.

Me thinks Cheen has been an eager beaver to behave as the world's second largest economy supar pawar ding dong for a long time and Putin has sweet talked them into helping out Russia as it fulfils its geopolitical goal of taking the pressure off in Ukraine by opening another front in Syria. More power to Putin!