West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 01 Oct 2015 23:16

Supratik wrote:I don't think Syria can be stabilized under a minority Shia regime. It can only stabilize only when the western Shia-dominated part and the Sunni eastern part separate. Similar is the case with Iraq - Shia part, Sunni part, Kurdistan. You can't make people who hate each other to live together peacefully. The other option is a stalemate like Lebanon. But will the Shias want to live under a Sunni Syria, and the Sunnis live under Shia Iraq. I doubt it.

Iraq and Syria are already effectively partitioned. The other thing that is quite likely in this land of the peaceful is genocide. ISIS is working in that direction. I doubt west will have too much problems with that either despite all their moral surmons.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 01 Oct 2015 23:56

viewtopic.php?p=1908999#p1908999
viewtopic.php?p=1909036#p1909036

Russia is open to talks with FSA without compromising on good/bad terrorists. A lot to learn here including deployment, striking ISIL HQ, dropping dumb bombs from high altitude, setting its convenient pace of attack, and so on. From discussion here, it seems Russians still use WW2 era sturdy design and not shy away from using it, so Russians must have had good enough amount of such ammo.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 01 Oct 2015 23:59

If only the Russians had shown more determination in the Yugoslav war.

Difference between drunkard Yeltsin and macho Putin?!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Oct 2015 02:05

Russia kills US-backed Syrian rebels in second day of air strikes as Iran prepares for ground offensive' - live updates

The Russians continued their aerial bombardment on Thursday. Targets included Jisr al-Shughour and Jabal al-Zawiya, areas under the control of Jaish al-Fatah, the Army of Conquest, an alliance of Islamist groups which have won significant victories against the regime this year. They also included Isil targets in Raqqa and Deir Ezzour provinces, including a Syrian Air Force base which fell to Isil earlier this year after a long siege.

• The Kremlin admitted on Thursday that targets included non-Isil targets - something it had previously denied - and that its aim was to shore the regime “in its weak spots”. The White House last night said the failure to discriminate between Isil and other rebel groups was a “grave miscalculation”.

• Among the dead from Wednesday’s strikes was said to be a prominent rebel leader in north Homs province, Captain Iyad al-Deek, a former regime officer who defected early in the uprising.

• The rebels have promised to take the fight to the Russians, some in blood-curdling comments online. “Is it not time for the knight to mount his steed? Is it not time to cut off the heads? What are we waiting for? What remains?” said one man, Mohammad al-Maghaweer, who claimed to be a front-line fighter with Jaish al-Fatah.

• The rebels also claimed there were a number of civilians among the dead. "The mosque was virtually destroyed, and there was a body under the ruins, and there were eight wounded, among them a child,” said Tareq Abdul-Haq, a media activist who visited Jisr al-Shughour after the Russian bombing. He said a “poor, civilian” neighbourhood had been hit.

• Russia is preparing both a United Nations resolution purporting to cover both its bombing campaign and that of the US-led anti-Isil coalition under one formulation, and a new round of peace talks.

member_29001 · Post by **member_29001** » 02 Oct 2015 02:47

Russian response to propaganda war.
Picture of rescue worker and injured girl child (injured before air strikes).

https://www.rt.com/news/317170-russia-a ... ans-syria/

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Oct 2015 03:15

Guys,could we move the Syrian crisis to the appropriate Levant td please? W.Asia is to huge a region to discuss Iraqi,Saudi,Gulf,etc.matters.Tx.

Levant:A region on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea north of the Arabian Peninsula and south of Turkey, usually including the area of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Oct 2015 04:15

I second Philip, not because West Asia is large (it's a lot smaller than, say, Siberia or Mongolia or Aus/NZ or South Pacific or Antarctica), but because there are so many wars going on. Just like we need 5 threads for Pakistan.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Oct 2015 06:06

Interesting take.

Syria intervention plan fueled by oil interests, not chemical weapon concern

habal · Post by **habal** » 02 Oct 2015 08:02

why hasn't any media outlet asked the question as to how people can go missing after a stampede, and that too 225 people ? Were they swallowed by earth or flew back home on magic carpets ?

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Oct 2015 08:35

ysnarayanan_brf wrote:Russian response to propaganda war.
Picture of rescue worker and injured girl child (injured before air strikes).

https://www.rt.com/news/317170-russia-a ... ans-syria/

Interesting comment by an ...

Howie J 6 hours ago

Billy Elliot
"i have more respect for mtr putin than my own politicians, back him 100 percent"

If Vlad the merciful was running for U.S president, He would win by a landslide.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Oct 2015 08:51

habal wrote:why hasn't any media outlet asked the question as to how people can go missing after a stampede, and that too 225 people ? Were they swallowed by earth or flew back home on magic carpets ?

Clearing bodies using an earthmover and then blaming Iran is exactly like Pakistan hosing down a terrorist bomb site and blaming India.

Birds of a feather

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 02 Oct 2015 09:23

Singha wrote:pic of OFAB bomb used on su24. seems like dates back to WW2 but pulled out of mothballs.
http://i.imgur.com/EPG6Kdu.jpg

Rus mod releases new video of night airstrikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=82&v=s_h8YISqJRQ

Singha ji, there was an interesting discussion regarding Russian bombs few years back on keypubs. These bombs were primarily designed for dropping out of bomb bay and designed to make optimum utilisation of volumetric space available inside, hence the less than optimum aerodynamic shaping.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 09:34

ysnarayanan_brf wrote:Russian response to propaganda war.
Picture of rescue worker and injured girl child (injured before air strikes).

https://www.rt.com/news/317170-russia-a ... ans-syria/

Not Surprising , We would hear a lot of news from collateral damage from russian bombing from West in days and weeks ahead.

Still remember the Syria Danny fake interview CNN carried for week , Now that guy is a political activist in UKistan

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 02 Oct 2015 09:48

ramana wrote:We needed a catchy phrase to capture the anti-Assad forces.

OBIT= Obama Backed Islamist terrorists is an apt description for FSA and Al-Nusra.
ISIS = is the other which has KSA, GCC and lite US backing.

Thanks UB.

And OBIT is short for obituary!!!

USOBIT? Hope not but one can never be sure with all the "why don't they like us?" wailing going on. Of course, we (i.e. the US) need to change our ways or the world will keep on hating and targeting us and our citizens.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 09:55

Suspected Iranian missile shipment seized in Arabian Sea

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Oct 2015 10:26

VT who is talking USOBIT? Please read context.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Oct 2015 10:32

i believe in the chechnya wars the pulled bombs out of storage since ww2 days. some had moss and lichens growing on them but worked fine after a good cleaning.

they never throw anything away, probably still have 7000 tanks under heavy grease in the boneyard for what if scenario.

i have also heard the IDF does that. maintains a huge reserve inventory of old kit for the doomsday scenario.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 02 Oct 2015 11:30

Must read:

Storming heaven: A revolt in Makkah

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Oct 2015 12:03

juhayman looks like a charismatic fellow. the french as usual must have extracted a hefty sum for their help.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 12:19

Austin wrote:Suspected Iranian missile shipment seized in Arabian Sea

Looks like Iran is supplying them Tow missile , may be they managed to reverse engineer it.

So far Houthis Success against Armoured Carrier from GCC nations has been use of Tosun anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) which is Iranian version of Russian Konkurs ATGM and RPG-7/8 types , Didnt see Houthis using Tows

Seems more than the weapons their tactics have helped them , They dont seem to be using 3rd Gen Kornet ATGM or RPG-29 with HEAT anti-tank against Armoured Tank , while Hizbolah which is supported by Iran have used both types against Merkavas in Israel war.

If Iran supplies them with Kornet and RPG-29 that would qualitatively improve Houthis ability to take on these GCC Boys not that they need one

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Oct 2015 12:20

kornet being a heavy ATGM is not man-portable....I think they will prefer lighter weapons for the typical sneaky fight unless its a stand up fight. same for the TOW, it needs a 2 man crew to operate with a heavy stand and sighting system. a cheap RPG7 will kill or disable a MRAP, IFV and encourage the crew to run away asap.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 12:43

Singha wrote:kornet being a heavy ATGM is not man-portable....I think they will prefer lighter weapons for the typical sneaky fight unless its a stand up fight. same for the TOW, it needs a 2 man crew to operate with a heavy stand and sighting system. a cheap RPG7 will kill or disable a MRAP, IFV and encourage the crew to run away asap.

Kornet or Tow or Konkurs or Milan are as much as manportable they need two men for launcher and missile

Check the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_HgS6b3f6E

Yes the RPG-7 can disable a MRAP or IFV if you get a hit at right place from closer proximity then ATGM can afford , also note all the Abrams/Bradley kills are from ATGM from long sandoff distance ( 2-3 km ) using Iran version of ATGM

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 12:45

Lavrov: Unipolar World No Longer Exists
http://www.sputniknews.com/russia/20151 ... rview.html

“Old habits die hard. Parting with one’s sense of global dominion is not easy and this process is going to be long and painful, but I’m sure that in the long haul we’ll agree on the need to redistribute our responsibilities from conflict resolution to economics to finance and trade,” Lavrov said on Venezuelan state television.

All this should be done strictly in line with the UN Charter and without undermining the authority of the UN Security Council, Lavrov added.

“We are against any quick fixes here… All these problems should be tackled having fully in mind the hard fact that global politics, economics and finances are no longer directed by a single center, that there are new powerful centers of economic and financial growth now emerging in Asia and Latin America adding political clout to these new economic powerhouses,” Lavrov noted.

He also called for a redistribution of votes and quotas, including in the International Monetary Fund “we all agreed about ten years ago.

Sergei Lavrov warned against the principle of the so-called “legal extraterritoriality” when unilateral sanctions are imposed in circumvention of the UN Security Council and are aimed at undermining a country’s economic and social stability.

“Economic ties, trade, technological exchanges all this holds the key to development while one-sided sanctions thwart the countries’ pursuit of a better life,” Sergei Lavrov said in conclusion.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 13:26

Turkey, six countries voice concerns over Russia’s military actions in Syria

We express our deep concern with regard to the Russian military build-up in Syria," the English-language statement posted on the ministry’s website on Thursday says. "These military actions constitute a further escalation and will only fuel more extremism and radicalization," it says.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 02 Oct 2015 13:52

Just listing few of the comments up voted in thousands. Seems like influx of all the refugees in Europe has brought mango janta to their senses now.
Putin signs decree drafting 150,000 conscripts into the Russian military… as Iran and Hezbollah prepare major ground offensive in Syria with air support from Moscow's bombers

The award for biggest mismanaged conflict goes to America! Well done Putin Britain is behind you.

No targets where IS are positioned? So, if the Americans know where IS are, why haven't they already blown them to oblivion? Obama is an idiot

There are NO moderate rebel groups ....all the groups fighting Asad are either ISIS or offshoots of al qaeda or other extreme i s l a m i s t militias …Putin and Russia are doing the world a favour in blasting these fanatics to pieces.

So the US now "insists" on holding talks with Russia which is what Russia has been politely asking for months!!!! Spin, twisting the truth, and back-tracking. We just don't believe a word the US and UK UN delegation say any more!

Oh no Britain and America are not happy with Putin oh boo hoo what you going to do give him a 'look' next time you see him. Pathetic western leaders. Stop spending my tax money on rubbish.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 02 Oct 2015 13:55

Russia's extraordinary Twitter taunts at Britain as it steps up strikes on Syria

The Russian Embassy taunted UK Foreign Secretary from its official Twitter feed by sending him a photograph of one their warplanes firing a missile

kit · Post by **kit** » 02 Oct 2015 15:48

jagga wrote:Russia's extraordinary Twitter taunts at Britain as it steps up strikes on Syria
The Russian Embassy taunted UK Foreign Secretary from its official Twitter feed by sending him a photograph of one their warplanes firing a missile

i suppose thats how nations show the unmentionable finger at each other

.. +1 to Putin

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Oct 2015 16:03

the russian media handling has been very sharp. RT is already a global entity with funding equal to bbc. they are also able to pounce on social media fakery quickly and ungli any of these western politicians. uploads to youtube are a blessing - global reliable infra ... even the houthis do it daily

overall they work for russian interests not as a 5th column like most of our MSM

vikas swaroop of MEA slapping around TSP and mota via teetar yesterday was also fun..blandly asking TSP to vacate POK and calling them out.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Oct 2015 17:18

These developments are not good for anyone.

Seems like this is going towards a very bloody end.

Wish this all had come after Modi's visit to Russia.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 02 Oct 2015 17:37

NRao wrote:These developments are not good for anyone.

Seems like this is going towards a very bloody end.

Wish this all had come after Modi's visit to Russia.

If the US, UK & France wish to build upon their stellar record of success in managing peace in the Middle East, so be it. And if Russia doesn't have enough on its plate between paying for Crimea, funding Novorossiya and modernizing its military, with GDP growth at -4%, and would like to join the 'League of Global Cops', more power to it.

India needs to stays to stay the hell out of it. We've got over five million of our people in the Middle East remitting billions back to us, who'll get caught up in it if we start picking sides.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Oct 2015 18:30

India needs to stays to stay the hell out of it.

THAT is the problem I see.

It is very, very, very rare that politicians accept other politicians "stay the hell out".

I just cannot see India staying out, without paying in some way or the other. Which is why I posted that wish all this had happened after Modi's visit to Russia. Now even a silence can be misinterpreted - possibility exists, it is all about big egos.

habal · Post by **habal** » 02 Oct 2015 18:34

You are right here. This is a perfect sit-out situation for India. But I doubt that will be possible. There will be heavy pressure from Russia.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 02 Oct 2015 19:22

Today Russian agenda is terrorism. Period. Modi's speech at UN, at Silicon Valley event, Swaraj's speech at UN, Vikas Swarup punches on Puki face on twitter all talk about terrorism. So, it is anyone's guess whether India is talking in support of Russia (if you really have to see it US vs Russia) or against Russia.

Any Russian (or even US's) analyst worth his salt understands what Indians are saying and doing.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Oct 2015 19:24

remittances wise, most of our people are tied into the sunni cabal.
security interests wise, all our benefits would be for the shia cabal to win this one or atleast cut the sunni cabal down to size...that will affect TSPs room of manouver.

a difficult problem with no clear answer.

if it comes push to shove perhaps we can contribute a expeditionary AF based in western Iran for a while to pound the ISIS in north iraq and eastern syria ? [since everyone seems to agree the ISIS are the bad taliban

] this will cut down france and UK's stature - they move around in the gorillas shadow with 5 planes each and make tall claims of contributing to the cause and bringing niche capabilities to the table...well those black painted uber cool SU34s just drove a huge hole through such posturing.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 02 Oct 2015 19:27

Thakur_B wrote:
Singha wrote:pic of OFAB bomb used on su24. seems like dates back to WW2 but pulled out of mothballs.
http://i.imgur.com/EPG6Kdu.jpg

Rus mod releases new video of night airstrikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=82&v=s_h8YISqJRQ
Singha ji, there was an interesting discussion regarding Russian bombs few years back on keypubs. These bombs were primarily designed for dropping out of bomb bay and designed to make optimum utilisation of volumetric space available inside, hence the less than optimum aerodynamic shaping.

Why to use smart bomb to kill un-smart terrorists? what is this amour with smart bombs hein ji. It works like carpet bomb. Russians are not going to repeat mistakes of Afganistan war. Just bomb them with whatever you have. Make them melliable and ductile. Than send boots on ground (syrian and Iranians).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Oct 2015 19:29

sooner or later the saudi remittances will dry up as their exportable % of oil declines , and internal chaos makes it increasingly unsafe for indians.maybe happen in 5 yrs or 10 yrs but a bloodbath is coming there.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Oct 2015 20:00

4 years ago on BRF, I was discussing this same scenario which is unfolding now, where Assad is strengthening his hold over the Mediterranean coast of Syria around Latakia and Tartus.

It is simply logical. The equilibrium would come down to how much land any party can hold over time, and that their populace more or less support their rule. Assad's Syria would shrink to that around Latakia, and it is unlikely there would be many Sunnis left there.

RajeshA wrote:
shyamd wrote:RajeshA ji, indeed. We'll have to coopt one of the routes which has to be economically feasible. You can't go through Iraq today unless you have the permission of the US AND Iran. So, Iran is the best bet, geographically closer etc. But as you know KRG is sunni, Iran is shia and KRG is allied with the West/GCC. So its quite complicated at the moment. Turkey has a good understanding with the KRG.

Iraq is worried about Kurdish independence so wants KRG to remain weak and powerless. Each nation has complicated relations with KRG.
shyamd ji,

that is why I think now when India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA Group) is trying to look for solutions to the Syrian situation and formulate a policy towards it; India should work on another possible route to Iraqi Kurdistan, through Syria.

It is obvious that USA, Israel and GCC would like to break the Shiite Crescent at Syria. It is also true that if the Sunnis take over Syria, life would become more and more difficult for the various minorities - Alewites, Syrian Orthodox Christians, and others.

So the normal regime change in Syria is also not in the interests of those who care about the minorities. And keeping Assad's regime seems more and more unlikely.

This is the best time to propose a loose federation in Syria - The Alewites and Christians getting the region in the North-West establishing their stronghold around Latakia on the Mediterranean, and their province extending all the way to the Syrian Kurdistan Province in the North-East of Syria.

Using "Latakia" as the name of the Minorities Province for sake of ease, it must be possible for India (and others) to develop this Province as a viable route into Iraqi Kurdistan, thus creating a second viable route, after Iraq.

The routes through Turkey and Iran cannot be used really to strengthen the Iraqi Kurdistan Government militarily. The route through Syria seems to be more plausible, as "Latakia" would be dependent on outsiders for its existence.

By helping set up such a Syrian Federation now, we would in fact be saving Assad and his coterie, by giving them a share in the power in "Latakia", confining the regime change only to Central and Southern Syria. Assad may be grateful for such a solution.

India would get some gratitude from all sides - from the Assad and Alewites for saving their skins, from the Sunnis and Sauds for breaking the Shiite Crescent, from the Syrian Kurds for giving them more autonomy, from the Iraqi Kurds for Indian support in expanding Kurdistan de-facto! And it would be doing something in Indian strategic interest as it would help create the "Aryan Crescent" stretching from India to the Mediterranean in the long term.

Now is the time for India to show diplomacy!

RajeshA wrote:Especially now, when Egypt has started looking at its foreign policy anew, with respect to Israel and Iran, what one does not want is that Egypt has a partner in the East Mediterranean as well.

After Sadat's turn-around and Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty of 1979, Egypt and Syria were in two different camps. Syria still had Golan Heights to recover from Israel, whereas Egypt had moved on. This did not sit well with Syria, so their they did not have the best of relations since then.

Now when Egypt looks anew at its policies towards Israel, a Alawite-led Syria aligned with Iran, can be dangerous for Israel, as Egypt and Alawite Syria could cooperate, giving Iran far more latitude in West Asia. If Syria turns Sunni completely if the Sunni-led Resistance comes to power, even then Egypt and Sunni-led Syria would again be allies, putting pressure on Israel. Only this time, Saudi Arabia would be the winners, who would be the ones dictating pressure on Israel. With Jordan part of GCC, the borders of GCC would be reaching all the way to Syria, and the influence of the Saudis will increase. This would create a complete encircling of Israel by the Sunnis.

So if Syria remains united, regardless of whether it is under Sunnis or Alawites, the issue of Golan Heights would remain ever present, and so would be the pressure on Israel.

A division of Syria would break that connect. If the Alawites retreat to Latakia or North-West Syria in general along the Mediterranean Coast, then neither can the Iranians create their Shi'a crescent extending all the way to Mediterranean and put pressure on Israel in coalition with Egypt, as the Sunni Central Syria and Kurdistan would interrupt that; nor can the Saudis extend their influence all the way to the Mediterranean, thereby encircling Israel, as Alawite Latakia would put interrupt that.

That is good for Israel.

What about India?

For India it is good when neither the Sunni bloc becomes too strong nor the Shi'a bloc. We also don't want Israel to fall in West Asia, because if it does, we will become the next target of Ummah!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Oct 2015 20:05

remittances wise, most of our people are tied into the sunni cabal.
security interests wise, all our benefits would be for the shia cabal to win this one or atleast cut the sunni cabal down to size

India is in a great at the same time precarious position.

So, on one side India has great relations with Iran + Russia and rocky with China.

On the other India has great relations with Israel and is building out and can see the silver lining with the US + US + France and very, very recently SA.

For someone that needs to sit this out, it is a great position.

But, if the situation gets worse in Syria - and it should be all accounts - it makes it very uneasy to deal with any of them, unless Syria is cleaned off the Indian memory - like it never existed. A very touch act to perform, when Syria IS THE news of the day.

And, then we have this whole ball of wax called the UNSC reorg. A highly imp topic for India, but I can bet that no one else is even thinking of it now. Similarly, a lot of things that need urgent attention from an Indian PoV, will not even get any attention from the rest.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Oct 2015 21:29

Now the ball is rolling:

U.S., allies demand Russia halt Syria strikes outside IS areas

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2015 21:57

Inside the Russian base in Latakia Syria ( Pictures )

http://www.kp.ru/daily/26440/3311460/