Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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Melwyn

Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Melwyn » 28 Sep 2015 03:03

What is even more shameful is the open support shown by Indian Aaptards calling Indian government as fascist and blaming Modi for degrading relationship with every neighbour including "Pakistan". Every thread I saw had one Nepali comment and several Aaptards supporting them and berating India.

Har shaakh pe ullu baitha hai, anjaame gulistan kya hoga.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Paul » 28 Sep 2015 09:23

20+ US congressmen approached Kerry to pressure Nepal on Secular constitution per Baptist stand.org

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Paul » 28 Sep 2015 09:39

We need to dig deeper to understand the perfidy of WASPs in this sordid episode. The Brit ambassador openly lobbying to keep the constitution secular.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby dsreedhar » 28 Sep 2015 13:38

Unfortunate to see Nepal acting this way. Quite a few anti-India sentiments aired by nepalese in social media. These are unfortunate distractions for Modi govt. The way things going on in the country's neighborhood, it seems we may continue to see these anti-India ploy and China card being played more and more until India surges to a level of advancement and a power to reckon, and things will turn around. Until then more of this drama to go on. The situation is that of a delicate balance to deal with.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby chetak » 28 Sep 2015 13:58

dsreedhar wrote:Unfortunate to see Nepal acting this way. Quite a few anti-India sentiments aired by nepalese in social media. These are unfortunate distractions for Modi govt. The way things going on in the country's neighborhood, it seems we may continue to see these anti-India ploy and China card being played more and more until India surges to a level of advancement and a power to reckon, and things will turn around. Until then more of this drama to go on. The situation is that of a delicate balance to deal with.



Quite a few anti-India sentiments aired by nepalese in social media


nothing surprising here. the nepalese have always felt this way. The Indian media has never bothered to take cognizance or to report such sentiments earlier but the same cannot be hidden on the social media.

the primary reason is the free access and easy jobs that they grab in India as a matter of birth right. Have you or they dared to think of china, ever, ever granting them such free and undeterred access to settle in china and grab local jobs as they want??

familiarity really breeds contempt.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby uddu » 28 Sep 2015 14:11

chetak wrote:
dsreedhar wrote:Unfortunate to see Nepal acting this way. Quite a few anti-India sentiments aired by nepalese in social media. These are unfortunate distractions for Modi govt. The way things going on in the country's neighborhood, it seems we may continue to see these anti-India ploy and China card being played more and more until India surges to a level of advancement and a power to reckon, and things will turn around. Until then more of this drama to go on. The situation is that of a delicate balance to deal with.



Quite a few anti-India sentiments aired by nepalese in social media


nothing surprising here. the nepalese have always felt this way. The Indian media has never bothered to take cognizance or to report such sentiments earlier but the same cannot be hidden on the social media.

the primary reason is the free access and easy jobs that they grab in India as a matter of birth right. Have you or they dared to think of china, ever, ever granting them such free and undeterred access to settle in china and grab local jobs as they want??

familiarity really breeds contempt.


The anti sentiment is something that's been hammered into their heads for long by People in power. When you have Maoism even in India's Maoist areas where schools are destroyed and they are taught that government is their enemy, then that get etched in their mind until they see the reality. So you can't blame the population for believing what's been told to them. The best way is to counter that and tell them the truth or let them see it for themselves. Also they must be told / understand how India's is helping them.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby nvishal » 28 Sep 2015 15:48

Like srilanka, nepal too has learned to use china against india for benefits.

The idea is for indians to never relate to issues in those two countries. Remove any existing emotional attachments and treat their problems vaguely.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Sep 2015 17:02

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 145448.cms

India's suggestion to Nepal to accommodate the concerns of Madhesis and other minority communities may have got a push with the resignation of former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai from the Maoist party he co-founded over Madhesis being denied a say in the recently adopted constitution.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Sep 2015 19:48

"India asks Nepal to solve crisis, warns against ‘China card’"
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/ind ... vieDJ.html

India and China have been in touch and discussed the Nepal situation after a political crisis broke out in the country with the promulgation of the new constitution. Delhi is also confident that that the effort of a section of the Nepali political elite to play the ‘China card’ will not succeed.


“Look this is not about India vs China. It is about the Nepali political leadership finding a quick resolution to the domestic strife. We would strongly advise them to look within and resolve issues rather than play games which won’t go far,” a source said.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Oct 2015 01:31

New York Times Editorial Board weighs in:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/opini ... nepal.html

At issue is the enfranchisement of historically powerless ethnic and caste groups. Nepal’s new Constitution divides the country into seven federal districts. But the Madhesi ethnic group, concentrated along Nepal’s border with India, and ethnic Tharus complain they are not adequately represented, even though they are a significant part of Nepal’s population. Rather than demonstrate flexibility and negotiate greater inclusion for these groups, as the United States and India have advocated, Nepal’s constituent assembly approved the new Constitution without making any concessions.

There is a real risk now that a historic opportunity for national unity and healing has been squandered. Every effort should be made to address the grievances of these groups, including amending the new Constitution to ensure their equitable participation.


The easy answer is to blame India. The harder but necessary task is to find a political solution.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby chetak » 01 Oct 2015 02:05

Paul wrote:We need to dig deeper to understand the perfidy of WASPs in this sordid episode. The Brit ambassador openly lobbying to keep the constitution secular.


these guys are just looking out for themselves.

It is we who do not know what's good for us despite the danger staring us in the face.

traitors are easily bought off and simply turned to do anti national work in the guise of secularism

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 03 Oct 2015 18:34

I'm surprised that the ongoing crisis in Nepal is not attracting more BRF attention and analysis.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby RoyG » 03 Oct 2015 19:54

A_Gupta wrote:I'm surprised that the ongoing crisis in Nepal is not attracting more BRF attention and analysis.


They have a pretty sh*tty MSM over there too. Managed to turn a good portion of their elite against us.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby jagga » 04 Oct 2015 02:41


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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby RoyG » 04 Oct 2015 04:31

This crisis is spiraling a bit out of control. Looks like majority of major parties aren't playing ball. If they start moving closer into the Chinese orbit, I think we should begin thinking about intervening in other ways. Having a secular constitution is an affront to dharmic thought.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Vipul » 04 Oct 2015 05:51


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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Prem » 04 Oct 2015 08:29

Nepal moving toward partition?

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Oct 2015 16:54

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 210701.cms
Sharad Singh Bhandari, leader of Madhes Samajwadi Party and a former defence minister, had issued an ominous statement in 2012. Speaking about the marginalisation of Madhesis, he had said that if the promises of inclusion and more representation in government jobs was not kept, the 22 districts of Terai will have no alternative but to think of other options, including a separate Madhes. His statement was followed by national indignation and the Hill parties charged him with being anti-national and an Indian agent and forced him to resign as defence minister.

Anti-Indianism won the day for the upper-caste power elite of Nepal once again. However in the present scenario, Madhesis are not ready to back down, having suffered repeated betrayals; and Bhandari's statement underscores the reality then and the reality now, of Madhesi discontentment and marginalisation. Disappointed by the new Constitution, Bhandari says, "This is in fact a regressive Constitution in every sense; why do they want to go back in time and undo the progress we have made in the turbulent 10 years?"

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby sudarshan » 04 Oct 2015 21:41

Is partition or absorption of a part of Nepal into India a good option? Maybe, but it comes with additional risks. If the pro-India parts split away or join India, that will leave the pro-China parts, which might well merge with China. Then we have that much more of a border with China to patrol.

OTOH, a split in Nepal might help Bhutan rethink the renewed Chinese threat and move closer to India.

Polarization in the rest of the subcontinent - India vs. China. Let's have it out in the open.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Bade » 04 Oct 2015 23:10

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... groups.png

Not useful for India to balkanize Nepal.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Prem » 04 Oct 2015 23:25

Regardless, in case of split,India must have plan to control their water resources and make the redundant. Right now, let MEA issue advisory for Indians not to visit Nepal because of anti Indians social atmosphere.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Bade » 04 Oct 2015 23:33

^^ That is why we need the whole of Nepal together. China already controls the plateau and its source of water. We cannot afford to lose Nepal. It should be a fight willing to be put if needed. Trying to avoid having a land border with China is not a good solution, if they can come in and out of Nepal already when they fancy.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby RoyG » 04 Oct 2015 23:43

There won't be any of that. I think we'll have to intervene more covertly. I feel that some we may have to pull some stings through the Nepal Army. They need unity. Only a hindu-buddhist identity can give them that.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Muns » 05 Oct 2015 03:04

This is turning to being a Nepal nightmare. Usual Self loathing Hindus have turned towards Modi to vent their frustrations on both sides of the border least to mention Mani Shanker Aiyer. On trying to think how to combat the scourge was reading the economist post by Jhujar earlier. A poster there mentioned the fact that over 40 madhesis have died in pre constitutional violence that existed. Taking it a line further...we may call this Ethnic Cleansing of the Madhesis by the Kathmandu elite of Nepal.

This here may pose a alternate viewpoint. India is actively trying to prevent marginalization and active Ethnic cleansing of Madhesis in the Terai by Nepali Maoist organizations from Katmandu. India is actively concerned about gross human rights violations that are taking place in Nepal.
We might turn this to our advantage in trying to create a active political party in Nepal among the Madhesis with links to the BJP. Starting active Shakhas in Nepal with the RSS and other Hindu groups such as the VHP is another priority. In time we may be able to create another broadbased Chogyal situation with the Nepalese government as we did in Sikkim.

Once again...all those against the Madhesis and other minorities are for Ethnic cleansing in Nepal such as Mani Shanker Aiyer himself. Dubious agendas and likely conversion have turned him to a prime instigator of violence against Hindus.

Reminds me of the battle of Talikota....wrote about this before...but in my view it's always been us who are our own worst enemies...Hindus fighting with the enemy for their own personnel greed.
Barkha Dutt, Shobha De and the whole NDTV squad as far as I'm concerned are promotors of Hindu Genocide....Hindu Ethnic Cleansing.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby RoyG » 06 Oct 2015 10:14

We're running out of options. Something will have to be done quickly. I think civil war is coming to Nepal again. We may have to intervene to keep the Chinese out. We should start contemplating a few scenarios. How fast can we mobilize our troops to the border?

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby member_28352 » 06 Oct 2015 15:26

The question of a partition of Nepal shouldn't arise at all. The whole of Nepal is part of the Indian sphere of influence and allowing a partition of Nepal is allowing direct Chinese influence on a part of the Indian sub continent - an unmitigated disaster. What were we doing when the Cheenis were stuffing the pockets of the hill elite to marginalize the Madhesis. At the same time we can't allow the Madhesis to become like the Tamils of Sri Lanka. A return to a constitutional monarchy may be just what the doctor ordered in this scenario. The Nepalese army may need to be the guarantor of this arrangement. This solution will also have costs, that of the Nepali Maoists but is the least worst of a very rotten set of choices.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Paul » 06 Oct 2015 15:33

The region is going back to the old normal. With the Monarchy's demise the Madhesis hitherto suppressed are coming out into the open. The Terai region is coming to India anyways. The mounataion region of Nepal has to come to India as it is economically integrated with the subcontinent. It is too expensive for China to lug a petroleium pipeline all the way across Tibet to Nepal. Cost is too high

But nothing will come to us until we work to achieve it. India has to be ready for Ukraine like situation where Nepal can get ripped part by two bears with one part part coming to India and the other part a little later

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby uddu » 06 Oct 2015 16:48

One thing that need to be kept in mind is that the Media there and the elites will be totally out of touch with ground reality (in any area). It will be a reflection of the India that was there before Modi came to power. There is a need for a la Modi in Nepal.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby srin » 06 Oct 2015 17:45

If Nepal feels it can jump out of India's orbit and embrace China, it should be free to. If it wants to sacrifice the advantages of visa-less travel to India for its workers and visa-less travel by Indians for tourism, and wants to be supplied by China via Tibet - okay, its call. We should be cool about it.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Rahul M » 06 Oct 2015 18:34

I have to reiterate this :

"there is however a blockade of essential commodities at the border and we are basically looking the other way. that kind of thing hits the common man not the elites. not advisable IMHO, other tools required."

this tactic is heavy handed and turns the aam Nepali against us. it is not in our interest.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby rsingh » 06 Oct 2015 19:51

Rahul M wrote:I have to reiterate this :

"there is however a blockade of essential commodities at the border and we are basically looking the other way. that kind of thing hits the common man not the elites. not advisable IMHO, other tools required."

this tactic is heavy handed and turns the aam Nepali against us. it is not in our interest.


^^
What makes you think Nepali Aam Admi was pro India? They get money and work from India. Just try to tell the something sensible they blackmail with china Card. Either we accomodate Nepal in India as an Indian state or we make fense on International boundry and introduse a strict visa regime.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Sachin » 06 Oct 2015 19:58

rsingh wrote:Either we accomodate Nepal in India as an Indian state or we make fense on International boundry and introduse a strict visa regime.

How much of an impact would such a decision have on the recruitment of Gorkhas to the Indian Army? Or are there enough India domiciled Gorkhas available?

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby KJo » 06 Oct 2015 19:59

SanjayC wrote:^^ The reason is that Nepali politicians don't fear India. While the carrot is there, the stick is missing. In addition, India has already given so many freedoms to Nepalis in India, they think India has no further advantage to offer them. They are openly contemptuous of India because of this. There are many covert options before Doval if he wants to use them. Restricting Nepali's free entry into India would be a start.


I agree with you. Our Nepal policy is seriously flawed. The Neps look at us as providers and don't feel the need to be loyal or even allies. Instead they openly blackmail India that they will go towards China. They need a danda in private. In social media and everywhere else, you see lots of Nepalis saying rubbish about India after getting so much.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby RoyG » 06 Oct 2015 20:01

Don't underestimate the Chinese to establish the infra in Tibet to more closely integrate Nepal. I think it will be the the Army + Madhesis vs the Maoists. I think there is still time to help broker a deal. How long it lasts is a diff question. They need unity but are ignoring the obvious. Stuffing the secular state down the throats of people is going to cause a lot of tension down the line.

I think we'll need to take them over and establish a 370 type of agreement with the NA being the administrator. That way we can legally move our troops into the area and ensure that they stay in our orbit. It would be a really good experiment in creating the first true dharmic governance model.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby rsingh » 06 Oct 2015 20:12

There are Gorkha in UK army. So not big deal. My thinking is IA has to get away from outdated view that certain race are more brave then others. This was done by British to turn one princely state on another. All Indians are equal and everybody can fight if he/she has to fight.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Rahul M » 06 Oct 2015 21:19

rsingh wrote:
Rahul M wrote:I have to reiterate this :

"there is however a blockade of essential commodities at the border and we are basically looking the other way. that kind of thing hits the common man not the elites. not advisable IMHO, other tools required."

this tactic is heavy handed and turns the aam Nepali against us. it is not in our interest.


^^
What makes you think Nepali Aam Admi was pro India? They get money and work from India. Just try to tell the something sensible they blackmail with china Card. Either we accomodate Nepal in India as an Indian state or we make fense on International boundry and introduse a strict visa regime.

remember modi's visit ?
who is 'they' ?
this constitution hoopla has nothing to do with the common nepali (whatever his/her biases may be) and is an out and out chess move by the pahadi elite. they provoked us hoping we would do something stupid and we did !!

we are punishing the wrong set of people (blockade doesn't touch the elite) and squandering whatever goodwill we have among the aam nepali for no reason. and yes, there was substantial goodwill for India when modi came to power and visited there.

I see this act of omission (by not preventing the blockade) as yet another example of c-system moles trying to disrupt India's progress. we seem to have only one tool -- a very ham-fisted tool of economic blockade of a country which is almost completely dependent on us for essential items and we are using it for every issue that comes along.
this is like using a nuke for border violation incident !!

on one hand we give every concession to the nepalis without asking for quid pro quo and OTOH we blockade them at the drop of a hat.
this kind of blowing hot and cold policy does not befit a major power. it certainly does not engender trust in India.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby chaanakya » 06 Oct 2015 22:22

I agree there should be no blocking by Indian authorities. rather they should sit and solve the problem together with Nepalese authorities. Otherwise goodwill will be frittered away and drive them away from India. Nepal is our brother, blood relation. Ties are stronger than one can imagine.

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Paul » 07 Oct 2015 06:11

Pls focus less on rhetoric and on actual reportage and analysis. In a sort of way we need to thank Yechuri for helping deposing off the monarchy, as it has brought Madhesi issue to the fore. Nepal has to confront this for its survival.

Per a Nepalese TW, Chinese are building on Nepal side of border. This is for the Nepalis clamoring for Chinese intervention.

Image

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Paul » 07 Oct 2015 10:11

http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news ... y-out.html

Oli way out

Making Oli the next PM is still the best option to salvage the constitution out of the current morass

- Ajaya Bhadra Khanal



















Oct 7, 2015- As the Madhes suffered, people in Kathmandu celebrated the new constitution. Now, though hardly a month has gone by, leaders in Kathmandu are back to doing what they do best: playing a game of political brinksmanship.
The focus is back on forming a new government and salvaging hurt egos. The lives of millions of people are no significant than flies in the higher order of political ambition. It is not that the politicians do not have strong reasons for what they are doing, and that is exactly the problem.
Other than that, Nepali politics has become a gyre of murky waters. The analysis of current trends and the possible future scenario indicates that the way forward must include making Oli the new prime minister and resolving the Madhes issue by amending the constitution.
For the new constitution to survive, realistically, political parties must reach an agreement on constitutional amendments followed by an agreement on the demarcation of electoral and federal boundaries, and an election government.

Ongoing scenario
Nepali politics, at the moment, is revolving around the axes of the Madhesi movement—which has been amalgamated by India’s support—and the political vision of CPN-UML leader, KP Sharma Oli, which is being buttressed by UCPN (Maoist) chairman Prachanda.
Nepal was peaceful as long as the Madhesi people were subservient to Kathmandu politics. The first indication came in 1990, as a second wave of protests following the main political movement. The second jolt came in 2008, again as an aftershock to the main 2006 people’s movement. Now, the Madhesi movement has come as an independent shock, at a time when people are supposed to be celebrating a new constitution.
The current movement of the Madhesi people has been strengthened by India’s support. The Madhesis have begun to view India as a guardian of their cause because they have lost the patronage of mainstream political parties in Nepal.
For some reason, leaders of our mainstream political parties and some hill-centric leaders have always viewed Madhesi people with suspicion. This perspective, handed down by Panchayat nationalism, has created a rigid boundary between the Madhesis and ‘Nepalis’. Madhes, in this sense, has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because the mainstream leaders—and a large swathe of the hill-centric populace—believe that the Madhes will move away from them, it is moving away from them.
The second major factor is Oli’s vision and the chasm it has created in Nepali politics. Much of his machinations and intentions have not been very transparent. However, despite pushing the constitution-drafting process across the finish line, he has generated deep suspicions among Nepali Congress (NC) leaders, the minorities, and India. His proximity to China, his insistence on controlling the reconstruction and rehabilitation process, and his penchant for Mahendrabadi politics has alienated some of his former partners.

Between Scylla and Charybdis
It is impossible to move along Oli’s current political trajectory because it will require suppressing the Madhes movement, cowing down India, and earning unstinted support of the NC and the Maoists. If Oli continues on his current path, India will continue to play hardball and the Madhes will continue to move away from our control. It will be only a matter of time before Nepal reaches a breaking point unless Oli is able to galvanise the NC, the Maoists and the Nepali people. Even then, it will mean an escalation of violent conflict and Nepal’s rapid economic free-fall.
Containing India, given our political reality, is a difficult proposition. For this, Nepal needs a long-term strategy, and this is not possible without the support of China and other members of the international community. Nepal’s diplomacy is chaotic and we cannot expect to change things overnight.
It will be equally tumultuous if Oli has to give up his political ambitions. He will then be recalcitrant and, in all probability, scuttle any move to amend the constitution. This could lead to a new constitutional crisis. The solution for such a crisis will have to emerge from outside the constitution and it might require strong military support and a neutral government.
There is very little possibility of constitutional and political processes moving ahead with Oli in command unless he reaches a negotiated settlement with the Madhesis and India at a personal level. Reports indicate that he’s been communicating with India regularly in the recent days.
Resolving the current deadlock by making Oli the new prime minister would mean that the NC should be prepared to lose its political constituency. The alliance of Oli and Prachanda is more likely to prevail in the hills and Churia range, and a new alliance between the Madhesis and Baburam Bhattarai will prevail in the plains.
In order to allow Oli become the new PM, the Congress will most likely seek some consolatory rewards. Even then, the NC will lose its central position in Nepal’s politics for the next decade and might be forced to give more space to Hindu agendas.
If the Nepali Congress does not relent, fearing its political future, it would mean forcing Oli to compromise. It will be really difficult to resolve the Madhes issue by bulldozing Oli’s resistance. This will be only possible if NC takes a strong position in favour of amending the constitution, and Oli’s existing support within the party and outside swings to the other side.

Negotiating the maelstrom
The above scenarios indicate that we have very few political choices unless we want to prolong suffering, gamble what we have already achieved, and push Nepal towards continued political instability.
The best way out for Nepal, with minimal damage, is to make Oli the next prime minister in return for his support in revising the constitution and resolving the Madhes issue.
For many, that would mean giving in to his political brinksmanship and pushing Nepal further towards an unfathomable cultural divide. Oli has that uncanny ability to generate both admiration and hatred.
An ideal way forward is to keep our house in order. The first step in this direction is to hold a dialogue with the Madhesis and reach a negotiated settlement regarding the content of the constitution, demarcation of electoral and federal boundaries, and mechanisms for the next round of elections.
Nepal cannot take on India if the house is divided. Unfortunately, our mainstream parties cannot work with each other, let alone develop an understanding with the Madhesi forces. We can, and should, develop strength to keep India at an arm’s length regarding our sovereignty and our political choices. However, it is a long process which depends as much on our political sagacity as on India’s.
The sooner political stakeholders realise this, the faster can Nepal emerge out of the current morass. However, this realisation has to come first from Oli himself, who has to revise his current ‘Oli vision’.
It will take years of hard work. But several years of informed politics would be able to bridge this divide and make Nepal stronger.

Paul
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Postby Paul » 07 Oct 2015 10:11

http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news ... y-out.html

Oli way out

Making Oli the next PM is still the best option to salvage the constitution out of the current morass

- Ajaya Bhadra Khanal

Oct 7, 2015- As the Madhes suffered, people in Kathmandu celebrated the new constitution. Now, though hardly a month has gone by, leaders in Kathmandu are back to doing what they do best: playing a game of political brinksmanship.
The focus is back on forming a new government and salvaging hurt egos. The lives of millions of people are no significant than flies in the higher order of political ambition. It is not that the politicians do not have strong reasons for what they are doing, and that is exactly the problem.
Other than that, Nepali politics has become a gyre of murky waters. The analysis of current trends and the possible future scenario indicates that the way forward must include making Oli the new prime minister and resolving the Madhes issue by amending the constitution.
For the new constitution to survive, realistically, political parties must reach an agreement on constitutional amendments followed by an agreement on the demarcation of electoral and federal boundaries, and an election government.

Ongoing scenario
Nepali politics, at the moment, is revolving around the axes of the Madhesi movement—which has been amalgamated by India’s support—and the political vision of CPN-UML leader, KP Sharma Oli, which is being buttressed by UCPN (Maoist) chairman Prachanda.
Nepal was peaceful as long as the Madhesi people were subservient to Kathmandu politics. The first indication came in 1990, as a second wave of protests following the main political movement. The second jolt came in 2008, again as an aftershock to the main 2006 people’s movement. Now, the Madhesi movement has come as an independent shock, at a time when people are supposed to be celebrating a new constitution.
This is when the anti India sentiment in Nepal was at its peak. Empowering Madhesis is one way of keeping anti India sentiments of Kathmandu lutyenites in checkThe current movement of the Madhesi people has been strengthened by India’s support. The Madhesis have begun to view India as a guardian of their cause because they have lost the patronage of mainstream political parties in Nepal.
For some reason, leaders of our mainstream political parties and some hill-centric leaders have always viewed Madhesi people with suspicion. This perspective, handed down by Panchayat nationalism, has created a rigid boundary between the Madhesis and ‘Nepalis’. Madhes, in this sense, has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because the mainstream leaders—and a large swathe of the hill-centric populace—believe that the Madhes will move away from them, it is moving away from them.
The second major factor is Oli’s vision and the chasm it has created in Nepali politics. Much of his machinations and intentions have not been very transparent. However, despite pushing the constitution-drafting process across the finish line, he has generated deep suspicions among Nepali Congress (NC) leaders, the minorities, and India. His proximity to China, his insistence on controlling the reconstruction and rehabilitation process, and his penchant for Mahendrabadi politics has alienated some of his former partners.

Between Scylla and Charybdis
It is impossible to move along Oli’s current political trajectory because it will require suppressing the Madhes movement, cowing down India, and earning unstinted support of the NC and the Maoists. If Oli continues on his current path, India will continue to play hardball and the Madhes will continue to move away from our control. It will be only a matter of time before Nepal reaches a breaking point unless Oli is able to galvanise the NC, the Maoists and the Nepali people. Even then, it will mean an escalation of violent conflict and Nepal’s rapid economic free-fall.
Containing India, given our political reality, is a difficult proposition. For this, Nepal needs a long-term strategy, and this is not possible without the support of China and other members of the international community. Nepal’s diplomacy is chaotic and we cannot expect to change things overnight.
It will be equally tumultuous if Oli has to give up his political ambitions. He will then be recalcitrant and, in all probability, scuttle any move to amend the constitution. This could lead to a new constitutional crisis. The solution for such a crisis will have to emerge from outside the constitution and it might require strong military support and a neutral government.
There is very little possibility of constitutional and political processes moving ahead with Oli in command unless he reaches a negotiated settlement with the Madhesis and India at a personal level. Reports indicate that he’s been communicating with India regularly in the recent days.
Resolving the current deadlock by making Oli the new prime minister would mean that the NC should be prepared to lose its political constituency. The alliance of Oli and Prachanda is more likely to prevail in the hills and Churia range, and a new alliance between the Madhesis and Baburam Bhattarai will prevail in the plains.
In order to allow Oli become the new PM, the Congress will most likely seek some consolatory rewards. Even then, the NC will lose its central position in Nepal’s politics for the next decade and might be forced to give more space to Hindu agendas.
If the Nepali Congress does not relent, fearing its political future, it would mean forcing Oli to compromise. It will be really difficult to resolve the Madhes issue by bulldozing Oli’s resistance. This will be only possible if NC takes a strong position in favour of amending the constitution, and Oli’s existing support within the party and outside swings to the other side.

Negotiating the maelstrom
The above scenarios indicate that we have very few political choices unless we want to prolong suffering, gamble what we have already achieved, and push Nepal towards continued political instability.
The best way out for Nepal, with minimal damage, is to make Oli the next prime minister in return for his support in revising the constitution and resolving the Madhes issue.
For many, that would mean giving in to his political brinksmanship and pushing Nepal further towards an unfathomable cultural divide. Oli has that uncanny ability to generate both admiration and hatred.
An ideal way forward is to keep our house in order. The first step in this direction is to hold a dialogue with the Madhesis and reach a negotiated settlement regarding the content of the constitution, demarcation of electoral and federal boundaries, and mechanisms for the next round of elections.
Nepal cannot take on India if the house is divided. Unfortunately, our mainstream parties cannot work with each other, let alone develop an understanding with the Madhesi forces. We can, and should, develop strength to keep India at an arm’s length regarding our sovereignty and our political choices. However, it is a long process which depends as much on our political sagacity as on India’s.
The sooner political stakeholders realise this, the faster can Nepal emerge out of the current morass. However, this realisation has to come first from Oli himself, who has to revise his current ‘Oli vision’.
It will take years of hard work. But several years of informed politics would be able to bridge this divide and make Nepal stronger.


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