The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 07 Oct 2015 19:38

If Iraq green lights the Russians, what options do the Americans have. Will it mean withdrawal of all American military options from Iraq? Will it mean the Americans will share space?

Will the Americans respect the sovereign authority of an Iraqi government to decide whose help they want? Remember that the present Iraqi government is US backed. Americans will be loathe to leave Iraq and hence I see them becoming more pro active against ISIS in the interim - that is if they can decide quickly.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Oct 2015 19:44

the war crimes trials should start with the people who carpet bombed vietnam indiscriminately and sprayed agent orange and other carcinogens.
then we can move on to the set of people who killed about a million iraqis via a starvation regime of sanctions after ODS.
followed by those who lied about WMD to start OIF and killed another million.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Oct 2015 20:12

yet to see a pro-gotus comment in nyt today, despite attempts to drum up hysteria.

Marvinsky New York 50 minutes ago

Contrary to the permanently unrelenting mindset permeating the American way of thinking, Russia is not our natural enemy. Russia is simply not our enemy. Pushing NATO into the former [please observe: former] Soviet empire was one of the most stupid consequences of this permanent American mindset.

To imagine how well a better interpretation might work, just look at the International Space Station, and Russia's role in getting people there and back.

Flipping this issue -- consider our so-called allies in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia -- one of the worst human rights states. A lousy dictatorship 100% against freedom of everything, esp. religion. And then Israel -- an opportunistic land-grabbing East European colony creating the major reason we need any allies in the Middle East.

ps. I am not Russian. Nor am I scared to death of Russia. My cold war ended many years ago. What about yours?

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Oct 2015 20:24

turks are the ch***ye of the levant ..

One Russian plane may have slightly crossed the border. But the real reason why the U.S. military official and Turkey can claim the above “violations” is because Turkey unilaterally and illegally “moved” the Turkish-Syrian border five miles south. Turkey has maintained a self-proclaimed 'buffer zone' five miles inside Syria since June 2012, when a Syrian air-defense missile shot down a Turkish fighter plane that had strayed into Syrian airspace. Under revised rules of engagement put in effect after that, the Turkish air force would evaluate any target coming within five miles of the Turkish border as an enemy and act accordingly.
If Syrian rules of engagement would “move” its northern border up to the Black Sea, would any plane in eastern Turkey be in violation of Syrian air space? No! No-one would accept such nonsense and that is why no one should accept the U.S.-Turkish bullshit here! Russian planes should not respect the “new” Turkish-defined border, only the original and legitimate one.

https://syrianfreepress.wordpress.com/2 ... ed-border/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2015 20:27

Singha +1
Deejay Iraq will have to do fine balance between US and Russia, Iraq knows US won't truly support Shiah regime but it needs US support too else Saudi will make Iraq life miserable

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 07 Oct 2015 20:27

Any reason why these cruise missiles launched from Caspian, rather than Mediterranean sea?
Is this to warn GCC that they can be fried from Caspian too?
Is this to hide the cruise signature from NAT/Isreali eyes in Mediterranean sea?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Oct 2015 20:40

The propellant is pre-loaded, the weapon has the range and the accuracy - why not sit back in Russia and launch? Why not give the Caspian fleet a role in the ongoing festivities?
Saves the limited stock on the Med. and Baltic fleets for future needs.

I didn't know there WAS a Caspian fleet, but with such neighbors I guess they need it. They can't bring that out to the ocean, can they? It probably was noted by the gentle folk in Azerbaijan, Kasazkhstan, Turkenistan etc as well.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 07 Oct 2015 20:48

>> "The fact that we launched high-precision missiles from the Caspian Sea at approximately 1,500 kilometers [932 miles]

Austin, kalibr is a club variant right ? does it have that much range ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Oct 2015 20:50

Non export model.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 07 Oct 2015 21:00

Iranian news does give out reports from time to time of launching Frigates ( as they call it) on the Caspian sea

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Oct 2015 21:03

Wonder if anyone can identify launch as being on the Russian ship vs. Iranian land site. Maybe from Space? What if there are flares from the ship at same time as in Iran? 1500 km missile must be cruise mijjile, hain? Can take off from a compressed air tube, or from slow start without any fireworks?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2015 21:31

Rahul M wrote:>> "The fact that we launched high-precision missiles from the Caspian Sea at approximately 1,500 kilometers [932 miles]

Austin, kalibr is a club variant right ? does it have that much range ?

Yes the non export model as Singha said it , I gave the link where few years back when the Byun was getting commisioned the caspian fleet commander gave the range for Kalbir LACM and anti-ship variant.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2015 21:37

UlanBatori wrote:The propellant is pre-loaded, the weapon has the range and the accuracy - why not sit back in Russia and launch? Why not give the Caspian fleet a role in the ongoing festivities?

UlanBatori , They cant sit back in Russia and launch as LACM with range of more than 500 Km are banned under INF treaty.

Caspian fleet ships are more modern and have Kalbir LACM , THe fleet currently deployed in Mediterian are not equipped with Kalbir.

Saves the limited stock on the Med. and Baltic fleets for future needs.

The trajectory when fired from Caspian flies over two friendly country Iran and Iraq to reach Syria , You also need over flight rights if you want your cruise missile to reach Syria from these countries

didn't know there WAS a Caspian fleet, but with such neighbors I guess they need it. They can't bring that out to the ocean, can they? It probably was noted by the gentle folk in Azerbaijan, Kasazkhstan, Turkenistan etc as well.

There is no dispute with countries over caspian fleet , its like a land locked sea , They found some good energy resources there but all countries have equal rights to it.

But like you said on any other day nobody would have noticed there WAS a caspian fleet

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2015 21:45

UlanBatori wrote:Wonder if anyone can identify launch as being on the Russian ship vs. Iranian land site. Maybe from Space? What if there are flares from the ship at same time as in Iran? 1500 km missile must be cruise mijjile, hain? Can take off from a compressed air tube, or from slow start without any fireworks?

Check the video the MOD has given some graphics of Cruise Missile Trajectory , Later they mentioned it flied over inhabited area over these trajectory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2TQ0wAfRts

The Trajectory looks complicated , flyies over Iran and Iraq with sharp turns at few places and in Syria it has some turns too

Kalbir in LACM variant has a warhead of 400 Kg thats a big punch for any target

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2015 21:50

This is from BBC

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2015 22:00

Pictures and Video of RBK-500 SPBE-D used in Syria , Some even remain unexploded

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1507397.html

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 07 Oct 2015 22:12

Austin wrote:Singha +1
Deejay Iraq will have to do fine balance between US and Russia, Iraq knows US won't truly support Shiah regime but it needs US support too else Saudi will make Iraq life miserable

They already are

The country is effectively split into 3 parts. Iran backed Shia, Gulf royal backed Sunni, and Kurds.

Russia has chosen to back the Kurds and Shias.

Turkey is the loser.

The arc that I've been talking about is finally forming.

It will be a continuous band of Shia-Kurd territory which will eat up a chunk of Turkey, the former Syrian coast line, and then link up with Lebanon.

The Israelis must be shitting bricks now. Russian and possibly Chinese warships parked in the Mediterranean and the Shias gobbling up all the territory around it.

Now watch, the Iranians are going to go back on the nuclear deal framework and force Obama to renegotiate and make him look like an even bigger ass.

The Sunnis keeping a their share of Iraq is now questionable at this point. The gulf countries are absolutely pathetic at fighting. What sort of security guarantees are they going to give them?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Oct 2015 23:29

I think soon RusPutin will declare a Kurd state if Turkey doesn't behave.
Erdogan's worst nightmare.

RoyG it will be KSIL.

Kurdistan State in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Oct 2015 00:27

KSIL and Shias surround the jihadi bacteria like a granuloma. Pakistan with its large Shia and Baloch population can be used against them if they decide to arm SA with nukes. Overall, the situation will get really hot and then stabilize. Very good from an Indian point of view. We will continue forging more alliances with the smaller countries along the arab periphery like Oman and UAE and build a sturdy foothold in the region.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Oct 2015 01:52

A Paki Jour-nalist was heard saying there was Short Bhangra match b'ween Su30s and F15s of IAF2 days ago.

Most Important thing from Indian POV is if Karasukha can fry Paki F16 and Chinese supplied Thunder Bunder's electronics then it will create panic like Dilli Billi roaming free among Pakootars. Paki will blind on land and in air and in water they are like Shrimp in front of IN Shark.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 08 Oct 2015 02:23

How does Samyukta compare with Krashuka-4?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 08 Oct 2015 02:38

AoA....Rujjian mijjiles have hit the targets....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JELcCMJLS-U

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 08 Oct 2015 03:34

Syrian forces begin ground offensive backed by Russia air and sea power

Regime soldiers on Wednesday stormed the town from three sides with Russian air support, the commander said, and the fighting has extended nearly 20 miles southeast to the town of Maan. He did not say whether his fighters suffered any losses but said Syrian rebels destroyed at least four regime tanks with antitank missiles.

Apparently the Syrians are still suffering heavy tank losses despite the preparatory bombardment from Russian aircraft and MLRS.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Oct 2015 03:56

Check the video the MOD has given some graphics of Cruise Missile Trajectory , Later they mentioned it flied over inhabited area over these trajectory.

Ah! 450% rel-liabal onlee. Far b it from me 2 doubt MOD-e-Putinullah.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 08 Oct 2015 04:54

Putin marks 63rd birthday with ice hockey match, Syria war briefing

Unique way of celebrating 63rd birthday with some fireworks...hope modji gets to celebrate the same way over Poorkistan

In the meantime, alleged video of R-shian mijjle allegedly flying over cur-dish territory.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 08 Oct 2015 05:31

This is one of the most complex situations. Asan example:

I think soon RusPutin will declare a Kurd state if Turkey doesn't behave.
Erdogan's worst nightmare.

RoyG it will be KSIL.

Kurdistan State in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

Israel buys 75% of her oil from the Kurds. Think of that.

Kurds just about started selling a lot of their oil to EU nations.

I am not too sure, but I think ALL of that transits through Turkey.

BTW, any cost estimates that are floating around out there? What is this costing the Russians?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Oct 2015 06:15

Kati wrote:AoA....Rujjian mijjiles have hit the targets....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JELcCMJLS-U

Looks like multiple target hit from multiple direction couple of seconds apart, the blast too is huge on impact

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 08 Oct 2015 06:19

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Oct 2015 06:22

From Rus POV there are two nations ISIS is attacking currently Iraq and Syria both support Runs actions on ISIS ,the rest of the noises are just good to hear or ignore

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Oct 2015 07:46

Bheeshma wrote:How does Samyukta compare with Krashuka-4?

in range samyukta's open source range is 150 kms and krasukha-4 is 300 kms.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 08 Oct 2015 07:53

Austin wrote:Pictures and Video of RBK-500 SPBE-D used in Syria , Some even remain unexploded

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1507397.html

Curious, what's going on in this video:

https://youtu.be/b8cO1FKoN8g

Is this a failed clusterbomb going off in midair? Or it is anti-tank submunitions?

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Oct 2015 08:10

Y. Kanan wrote:
Austin wrote:Pictures and Video of RBK-500 SPBE-D used in Syria , Some even remain unexploded

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1507397.html

Curious, what's going on in this video:

[youtube]b8cO1FKoN8g&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Is this a failed clusterbomb going off in midair? Or it is anti-tank submunitions?

It looks like AA firing shooting up RBK -500 SPBE-D in air

P.S. Corrected link to video

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Oct 2015 08:19

Y. Kanan wrote:
Austin wrote:Pictures and Video of RBK-500 SPBE-D used in Syria , Some even remain unexploded

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1507397.html

Curious, what's going on in this video:

https://youtu.be/b8cO1FKoN8g

Is this a failed clusterbomb going off in midair? Or it is anti-tank submunitions?

ITs air bursting ammo for kill at the target , Check the link I provided on how this works

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Oct 2015 08:23

This thing flies at Mach 0.8 and it seems fast imagine travelling Mach 2.5 plus they wont be able to capture on the video

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Oct 2015 08:26

Why Putin Is So Committed to Keeping Assad in Power

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/07/pu ... ign=buffer

Putin's growing military support for the beleaguered Syrian leader is meant to send a clear message to other anxious despots about Russian loyalty to its friends.Saving Assad from meeting the same fate as other regional despots like Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi and Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak is emerging as a key facet of Russia’s Middle East strategy. By propping up one of the region’s most vilified leaders, Moscow is sending a powerful message about its willingness to act aggressively in a region where many of America’s closest allies are feeling insecure — and questioning Washington’s commitment to have their backs in the future.“The region is falling apart, and states are collapsing, and the Russians are willing to intervene to protect their interests and assert their power, and the United States is not,” said Andrew Tabler, an expert on Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.“[Middle Eastern countries] want assertiveness and consistency, and they have not found that from the Obama administration,” Tabler added. “Even if you don’t back what the Russians are doing in Syria, people admire them because they are willing to put their money where their mouth is — as well as troops.”There has long been little doubt that Syria, a longstanding military ally, is a critical piece in Russia’s security strategy in the Middle East.. It is now considering the deployment of irregular Russian troops, or “volunteers,” to carry out ground operations. On Wednesday, Syrian forces began a ground offensive as Russian warplanes blasted targets throughout western Syria, according to the Washington Post.
“Saddam Hussein, hanged. Is Iraq a better place, a safer place?” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rhetorically asked reporters at U.N. headquarters last month. “Qaddafi murdered — you know in front of viewers. Is Libya a better place? Now we are demonizing Assad. Can we try to draw lessons?”
U.S. and Western officials seem to be placing their bets on Russia failing in its push to keep Assad in power and on Putin ultimately realizing that the only Syria exit strategy requires that Russia push the strongman out of office in exchange for playing a leading role in picking his successor.
Obama has mocked Putin’s military strategy as an act of desperation that will plunge Russia into a Middle East quagmire. Earlier this month, Obama reiterated the hope that Moscow will realize the folly of propping up a despised leader with no support at home “at the risk of alienating the entire Sunni world.”“Mr. Putin had to go into Syria not out of strength but out of weakness, because his client, Mr. Assad, was crumbling,” Obama said at an Oct. 2 White House press conference. “We reject Russia’s theory that everybody opposed to Assad is a terrorist. We think that is self-defeating. It will get them into a quagmire. It will be used as a further recruitment tool for foreign fighters.”
Russia, though, seems committed to keeping Assad in power for as long as possible.As far back as June 2012, Russia’s U.N. envoy, Vitaly Churkin, assured the United States and other key U.N. Security Council members that Moscow was not “wedded” to Assad. But he made clear that any decision regarding Assad’s fate would have to be determined by his own government and that Moscow would not force the Syrian leader’s hand or seek to name his successor.

What was motivating Russia’s support for Assad’s government, I asked. Was it fear that the ouster of Assad would fuel terrorism that could reach back to Russia? Or was it concern that the ouster would undercut Russia’s interests in its naval base at Tartus?Churkin said he would leave it to policymakers back home to calculate Russia’s national interests.From a personal standpoint, he said, he considered it a matter of national honor to stand up for Russia’s friends. “We are stronger on our allegiances than others, I think, and this is being recognized internationally,” he said. “Being a Russian diplomat, for us, if you have good relations with a country, a government, for years, for decades, then it’s not so easy to ditch those politicians and those governments because of political expediency.”Churkin’s remarks appeared aimed at the United States, which had overthrown Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and stood aside as Mubarak was pushed from power and ultimately replaced by Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. The United States had made peace with Qaddafi in 2006, only to cut him loose after leading what it described as a limited military intervention designed to prevent a mass slaughter in the city of Benghazi. Russia abstained on the U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the intervention in Libya and later cited Qaddafi’s fall as further evidence that the West cynically invokes human rights to mask its efforts to remove regimes that have fallen from favor.
Churkin suggested that other leaders in the region would realize that when push comes to shove Russia could be trusted more than the United States to back its friends.Three years later, the region’s newest leaders appear to have taken note.Putin, meanwhile, was the firstforeign leader of a major power to visit Cairo after Sisi’s coup.The Russian leader received a “hero’s welcome,” with an Egyptian military band playing the Russian national anthem and school children chanting, “Putin, Putin, Sisi, Sisi,” according to an account in the Financial Times.“I am filled with joy that President Vladimir Putin visits Cairo at this time to confirm Russia’s solidarity with Egypt in its war against terrorism,” Sisi told Putin, adding that the two countries would discuss stepped-up military cooperation.But Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, which remains bitterly opposed to Russian support for Assad, have nevertheless been building bridges with Putin. In June, Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince and defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, visited Putin in St. Petersburg, where he signed a number of agreements to share nuclear technology and step up cooperation in the oil and space exploration fields.Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has traditionally enjoyed cool relations with Putin, visited Moscow last month to lobby the Russian leader to do his best to ensure that advanced weapons in Syria won’t be used to help arm Hezbollah, with whom Israel fought a devastating war in 2006.The “depth” of Egypt’s and other Arab governments’ relations with Russia may be “very shallow,” said Michael Hanna, an expert on Egypt at the Century Foundation. In times of crisis in relations with the United States, Arab governments “will try to curry favor with Moscow. And in some ways, it’s easy. Moscow asks no questions about human rights and democracy and elections — they just don’t care.”But Hanna added: “I think there is a bizarre kind of grudging respect in parts of the Arab world for what they see as Russian steadfastness and decisiveness in contrast to what they perceive as the dithering of the United States.”

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Oct 2015 08:30

^^^ Yes, the ammo is air burst being fired from AA guns and the title of the video suggests they shooting up RBK -500 SPBE-D in air. However, the bombs themselves are not visible but at least one round has found the target.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Oct 2015 08:36

Austin saar, two things on the speed of the cruise missile : Smaller objects appear faster vis-a-vis larger objects at same speed and two objects at lower altitudes will also appear faster.

And from a visual perspective, so close to the ground and at Mach 2.5, the missile may well be lightening. Plus the sound will come later - fairly delayed. So if they hear the sounds and try to capture videos, they will capture the "howl" of the winds.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Oct 2015 08:53

the strikes took place around dawn IST. by 6pm they had built up graphics to show the flight paths, uploaded the videos from returning ships via satcom, got drone footage via satellite of impacts .... and stitched it together. quite impressive media management.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Oct 2015 08:57

fighting with tanks in the stalingrad type rubble of syrian frontline is not a great strategy. they need infantry lots of it and artillery co-ordination. armed drones can scalp targets at night when resupply and repositioning takes place.

Assad is lacking in manpower as are the rebels.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Oct 2015 10:41

What has been demonstrated by the missile naval attacks is that a small 500t corvette whose sensors are limited to a few hundred km can hit a target 1500km away thanks to Russia's excellent ISR,targeting and NCW capability.Thus far,only the US has demonstrated such a capability with hundreds of Tomahawaks launched at targets all over in the recent conflicts,the last superbly illustrated in Libya (sub-launched Tomahawks).One must recollect Russia's exercises in the Arabian Sea a year or so ago,where its strat. bombers were used to launch mock strikes.
PS:The IN some time ago developed a similar capability with the Prithvi/Dhanush armed OPVs.However,the number of missiles aboard our OPVs is limited. Smaller craft of the IN must be leveraged in similar manner.