Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 13 Oct 2015 14:26

Nomura expects India growth rate to come in @ 7.6% in FY '16

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Oct 2015 20:03

Modi's infrastructure splurge revives investment in India

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bet on higher public spending to spur economic activity in India has started paying off, as capital investment shows signs of sustained revival after years of uneven growth.

But corporate spending is still tepid and federal revenues remain stressed, raising the risk of another false dawn for Asia's third largest economy as it tries to recover momentum.

Annual growth in capital goods production, a proxy for capital investments, hit a 14-month high of 22 percent in August, government data showed on Monday. That helped overall industrial output expand at its fastest pace in almost three years.

While the figures, notoriously volatile and lumpy, were inflated by a favourable statistical base, the annual pace of expansion in the sector, measured on a three-month moving average, was 10.1 percent in August versus 3.8 percent a month ago.

Encouragingly, the recovery also appears to be becoming broad-based.

"It's a very positive sign," said a senior official at the finance ministry, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to the media. "It shows the strategy is showing results."

Weak capital investment has been a key factor behind India's struggle to realise its growth potential. Statistically, the economy matched China's growth in the June quarter, but very few analysts think it is growing full steam.

With factories running nearly 30 percent below capacity, private companies are in little rush to make fresh investments. Stretched corporate balance-sheets are not helping, either.

That has led the government to step up to the plate.

At the risk of inviting the wrath of investors and ratings agencies, Modi's administration loosened fiscal deficit targets in this year's budget to double spending on roads and bridges.

Since April, public capital spending has clocked healthy growth of nearly 19 percent on the year, compared with a fall of 1.4 percent in the corresponding period last year.

The government reckons economic growth could increase by at least a percentage point if its departments don't underspend.

That will help it meet a growth target of 8 percent to 8.5 percent for the year ending in March 2016, up from 7.3 percent a year ago. The IMF, though, has lowered its estimate for India's 2015/16 growth to 7.3 percent, from 7.5 percent.

"Overall, the industrial production data indicate that despite slowing external demand, the domestic growth cycle is improving," said Sonal Verma, an economist with Nomura.

But spending the budget is not the only challenge. Finding resources to fund the spending is an equally daunting task.

Indirect tax receipts have grown nearly 33 percent between April and September this fiscal year, but sluggish collections from direct levies are expected to reduce the total tax intake by nearly $8 billion.

With tax refunds likely to increase in coming months, New Delhi could face a fiscal squeeze, making it tougher to keep up the pace of spending.

Higher corporate spending could have offset that. But Indian firms are waiting for better returns before committing new investments.

"With the private sector showing limited appetite for expanding capex, growth recovery in fiscal 2015/16 is likely to remain modest," economists at Yes Bank said in a note.

Revenues at India's top companies are expected to fall 8.2 percent in the July-September quarter, the biggest decline in at least four years, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 13 Oct 2015 20:42

Can anyone throw some light on why the prices of toor daal have gone through the roof? A week monsoon is probably one of the answer but still a price in the range of Rs 180 - 200 sounds astronomical.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Oct 2015 20:57

Dipanker wrote:Can anyone throw some light on why the prices of toor daal have gone through the roof? A week monsoon is probably one of the answer but still a price in the range of Rs 180 - 200 sounds astronomical.

How many more reasons besides a weak monsoon and a supply crunch do you need ? Dal is grown primarily in MP, UP, RJ, MH and AP, an entire belt of deficient rainfall this year.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Oct 2015 21:05

Toor dal is the main dal used for sambar right ?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 13 Oct 2015 21:32

Suraj wrote:
Dipanker wrote:Can anyone throw some light on why the prices of toor daal have gone through the roof? A week monsoon is probably one of the answer but still a price in the range of Rs 180 - 200 sounds astronomical.
How many more reasons besides a weak monsoon and a supply crunch do you need ? Dal is grown primarily in MP, UP, RJ, MH and AP, an entire belt of deficient rainfall this year.

But the price of toor daal should not be so much linked with a week monsoon since toor daal is grown in the winter cycle ( rabbi crop ).

So the question would be was the production the last cycle was sub par? Is the current astronomical price purely related to market forces etc.?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 13 Oct 2015 21:34

Singha wrote:Toor dal is the main dal used for sambar right ?

Yes, it is also known as Arhar in north.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Oct 2015 21:43

Dipanker wrote:But the price of toor daal should not be so much linked with a week monsoon since toor daal is grown in the winter cycle ( rabbi crop ).
So the question would be was the production the last cycle was sub par? Is the current astronomical price purely related to market forces etc.?

You seem to know plenty about the topic already. Why not find the answer yourself and post here ?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 13 Oct 2015 22:03

^ So far google has not given me a good answer and I am by no means an agro-expert! Folks here at brf are quite knowledgeable and I was expecting somebody here would know the reasons. Could also throw some light on astronomical onion prices too or in general reasons for higher food prices vis. a vis. per capita income. For example it seems that price of toor daal, onions, meat etc. are more or less same in India and US but US per capita income is 35 times higher than India. Because of this difference in per capita income prices of these items in India is staggering.
Can the production be increased to bring down the prices or simply we do not have extra land for cultivation?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Oct 2015 22:35

This thread benefits when people make the effort to find and post things of value, not come asking. Don't post broad questions about land area, per capita income etc, and expect people to sit down and answer all your questions. If you find the weak monsoon argument insufficient to answer your question about toor dal, the onus is on you to find out more, including the breakdown of summer vs winter crop ratios, sowing locations and rainfall in that area. It's not fair to say 'I'm not an expert' before throwing out question after question. Become one, and post useful material in the process.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 13 Oct 2015 23:56

Dipanker wrote:
Dipanker wrote:Can anyone throw some light on why the prices of toor daal have gone through the roof? A week monsoon is probably one of the answer but still a price in the range of Rs 180 - 200 sounds astronomical.
But the price of toor daal should not be so much linked with a week monsoon since toor daal is grown in the winter cycle ( rabbi crop ).

So the question would be was the production the last cycle was sub par? Is the current astronomical price purely related to market forces etc.?

Toor is not a rabbi crop! It is kharif, normally sown in june - july time frame and harvested in march timeframe.

There are couple of issues with Toor which dis-incentivizes (small to medium) farmers from growing it. Firstly, it is a 9 month crop, so it looses out to crops like Soyabean (3 month crop), which offers same return on investment but in much shorter time. So small to medium farmers (which probably constitute 99% of total) who cannot afford to store and have to get immediate cash for their produce prefer crops with better ROI like soyabean. The volatiliy in prices at producer level is higher than at wholesale/international prices level, mainly because of small farmer's low bargaining power. If a farmer can afford to store it just for another 3 months (harvest in March and peak price hits generally in June), there is money to be made. Unfortunately, this potential profit pool is tapped by the middlemen/traders today.

Secondly, toor's long gestation period makes it relatively more vulnerable to diseases and so a risky investment for a farmer compared to other alternatives.

As a mixed-crop practice, at least in Maharashtra, Toor is normally grown with some other crop, mainly for direct consumption purposes or for risk-mitigation . Rarely as a single dedicated crop (unlike 2 decades ago)- it is simply not seen as profit-making crop.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 Oct 2015 01:57

Dipanker wrote:^ So far google has not given me a good answer and I am by no means an agro-expert! Folks here at brf are quite knowledgeable and I was expecting somebody here would know the reasons. Could also throw some light on astronomical onion prices too or in general reasons for higher food prices vis. a vis. per capita income. For example it seems that price of toor daal, onions, meat etc. are more or less same in India and US but US per capita income is 35 times higher than India. Because of this difference in per capita income prices of these items in India is staggering.
Can the production be increased to bring down the prices or simply we do not have extra land for cultivation?

Dipanker sir., I sometimes feel you are piggy backing on my predictions or not looking at other pages in deeper detail.

For a good answer., here is a GOOD answer. The answer is good., and hence it is a good answer. The other good answer is in the agricultural thread.

Jests apart., are you comparing apple and oranges when you do price comparison between US and India? Anyway., next year onwards the price will be inline and further, if the farmers listen to PM Modi and go for more crop per drop., we will see the food inflation being an issue in past only.

BTW, Gujarat is also a major producer of toor dal. However, the current focus of Modi Gov. is not on pulses but vegetable oil crops. And rightly so.

The rest we will take it in agriculture thread.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Oct 2015 02:25

that was a nice post gashish. thanks on the toor daal info., and it is very easy for such crops hit roof top prices on various parameters

here is another doc found on chacha.. ton of info to decipher
http://farmer.gov.in/imagedefault/pesta ... pulses.pdf

we need to think about cold storage and cold container shipments, to reduce bug infestation [provided the temperature is cold enough for the bugs not to survive]. we are talking about 20-40% savings from losses due to pests and diseases on certain pulses/dals.

solar powered refrigeration may help.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 14 Oct 2015 09:31

On the Toor Dal debate, crop estimates are the worst form of management information system (I am deliberately using management jargon as in my view a govt has both administrative as well as managerial role) within the overall data flow. Just the other day I found an update in the Agri Min website which spoke of agri output across the country. Three things struck me. It dealt with crop output for fiscal 2014-15. It was an estimate. It was the third advance estimate! Now, if after six months the govt couldnt even firm up the actual output for the previous year what chance does it have of proactively responding to emerging shortages? The problem is the State Govt administrative set up. There was a time when at the village level the officer (yes, he is an officer!) used to diligently visit farm lands and file crop health reports which then gets aggregated at the national level. He does file a report of sorts now but that is mostly of the armchair kind.
It doesnt help that India is not self sufficient in both pulses and edible oil. Marginal shortages get aggravated in prices.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Oct 2015 11:15

PMJDY zero balance accounts have fallen below 40% now, from the original high of almost 80%:
Jan Dhan deposits exceed Rs 25k cr, zero account balances fall below 40%

Deposits in accounts opened under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) recently exceeded Rs 25,000 crore, a finance ministry statement said on Tuesday.

Moreover, PMJDY accounts with balances now exceed 60 per cent, with zero-balance accounts constituting less than 40 per cent, the statement added. This ratio was 76 per cent to 24 per cent in September 2014. "As of October 7, 2015, these deposits collectively stood at Rs . 25,146.97 crore. Banks which have contributed significantly to this achievement are State Bank of India (Rs 2,989.18 crore), United Bank of India (Rs 2,644.77 crore), Oriental Bank of Commerce (Rs 2,104.70 crore), Bank of Baroda (Rs 1,771.42 crore) and UCO Bank (Rs 1,178.17 crore)," the statement said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Oct 2015 18:15

The strongest recorded el nino is now in eastern Pacific
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-m ... story.html

So next yr monsoon may be normal because central Pacific el nino is tied to depressed monsoon

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Oct 2015 19:42

nandakumar wrote:It doesnt help that India is not self sufficient in both pulses and edible oil. Marginal shortages get aggravated in prices.

This is an age old problem. Even when I was kid toor/parruppu shortages used to happen frequently. Back then the main problem was that there was no world market for parruppu. IIRC India grew just about 95% of the world crop so nowhere to import from either. I suspect it hasn’t changed much.

There are a few short term varieties available near TNV area, 3-4 months type crop, good yield too from what I hear but it is all relative. But they require irrigated land and fertilizer so hard to make money. As gashish says it is tough to make money with this crop. Yields in India are very low. Somewhere around 500 kg/hectare. I don’t know any other crop with such a low yield. Even onion can get you 30000-40000 kg per hectare. Most parrupu in India is dry/marginal land crop so not a priority.

The other item that has been our age old problem is the edible oil import situation. IIRC roughly 50% of our edible oil is imported.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 14 Oct 2015 20:42

There is a solution. Reform the agricultural product distribution system. It is a broken system where the producer doesn't exactly know what to produce, the distributor is usually a greedy manipulator and the retailer doesn't have the power.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 14 Oct 2015 20:53

Theo Fidel
Your point about there is no place else to import pulses from, reminds me of what a grain merchant who had to say about wheat imports by India in another era. "India has a big mouth and when it opens it, everything gets swallowed!"
Africa is perhaps the last place which has the potential to meet the shortfall that India may face from time to time. But it is such a dysfunctional place there is not much hope there. We have stabilised our fine cereal production only because there is a procurement support system. We need to extend it to oilseeds and pulses. Currently we have only a support price mechanism. But no procurement on the ground.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 14 Oct 2015 21:05

Theo: What i remember from my childhood, moong/"pesara pappu" is a dry land (metta bhoomi or land sitting on higher ground vs. palla bhoomi or land sitting on the lower ground which is good for rice of course) crop so are groundnuts. Same with toor/"kandi pappu". The care given to these crops is lot less than what is given to paddy and vegetable crops. It is almost like get the planting done and after a few months, go there to get it harvested. There were no water pumps nor irrigation - just rains were enough. I request we take the extended discussions to agri. thread unless of course it involves economic data.

As per import, but for toor/moong, could South America be an option? Let me look up the data.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Oct 2015 21:17

India named top investment destination in business poll

India has been named the most attractive country for investment in a survey of more than 500 global investors published by accounting firm EY (Ernst & Young) on Wednesday.

Thirty-two percent of the 505 executives questioned said India was their favoured market for investment, with China second on 15 percent of the vote, followed by Southeast Asia, Brazil and North America.

"There is no doubt that interest in India has increased," Mark Otty, EY area managing partner for Europe, Middle East, India and Africa said. "Investors increasingly see the potential and understand the fundamentals."

In an apparent vote of confidence in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reform agenda, the number of those who said ease of doing business in India was an attractive factor jumped 17.5 percent on last year.

India's notorious red tape, complex investment rules and poor infrastructure have long posed huge obstacles for companies, with the World Bank ranking it 142 out of 189 countries in its Ease of Doing Business index.

Industrial policy secretary Amitabh Kant said Wednesday the government was "determined to make India an extremely easy and simple place to do business".

India is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy this year, according to the IMF, at a time when other emerging markets are suffering slowdown or recession.

Greenfield foreign direct investment (new ventures) in India rose 32 percent to $25 billion in 2014 after declining in the previous two years, according to Financial Times data service fDi Markets.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 14 Oct 2015 21:57

Ok, I had been doing some research recently during a discussion on Delhi onion prices and purported scam. One thing that I realized was that mark-ups from farm to table are huge. As an exhibit please look at some preliminary analysis I had done on onion prices:

And this difference is not because of traders with huge markups, but as the next exhibit shows (again a letter from NAFED to Delhi Govt.) large costs are added up because of wastage, transport, etc.

My conjecture is that with improved transport, better storage facility, we will be in a far better position for farmers/ agriculture dependent population (>> 50%) in a sector contributing ~20% of GDP- If this does not win elections what will? And also for consumers. With looming water shortage and variability in monsoon, I think this is a critical area the government needs to focus on.

This is all IMVHO. Will get back once i have more data on this.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Oct 2015 22:08

what is the infrastructure plan on food, and farming cold storage facilities? I can't get it anywhere

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Oct 2015 23:09

Time for the seven-year itch

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/sto ... ?str=29067

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 15 Oct 2015 08:38

Ease of doing business: States to be graded on 344 points

Some truly revolutionary changes happening on ground in India, which the opposition is trying to desperately hide using 'beef' as smokescreen.

When was the last time India was top investment destination in the world? 900 AD perhaps?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 Oct 2015 09:42

http://www.businessinsider.in/Can-India ... 352659.cms
Can India be a $42 trillion economy by 2050?

In January 2015, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid out his plans to transform India into a $20-trillion economy from a $2-trillion one currently, the idea was perceived by many as a bit too ambitious. While Modi promised reforms in areas such as taxes and subsidies in addition to transparency and efficiency in governance and said that setting up of the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog is just one of institutional reforms that will unfold. On the other hand, critics cited the country's huge reliance on agriculture, which in turn depends on the vagaries of the monsoon, inadequate infrastructure that continues to be in shambles. Besides these reasons, high level of corruption is another factor that will thwart the very purpose of painstaking reform measures.
However, just a month later in February, PwC in its 'World in 2050' report said that India, along with China, will be the world's leading economy by 2050, while Japan, South Korea and Australia will slip in terms of rankings among top global economies. According to the report, Indian economy will surge to $17 trillion in 2030 and $42 trillion by 2050, claiming second place ahead of the US (which will touch $41 trillion) and will comfortably overtake the EU and the US in share of world GDP (in PPP terms) by 2044 and 2049, respectively. PwC also stated that Indian economy will expand by an average annual rate of 6.4% from 2014 to 2020, remaining faster than China after 2020 owing to its younger population and a greater scope for catch-up growth. This perspective was echoed by Subhash Chandra Garg, World Bank's executive director for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. According to Garg, India has the potential to become a multi-trillion dollar economy with a per capita income of about $40,000 by 2050. India, currently, enjoys three major economic attributes that are also seen as factors that will provide a leg-up in the country's journey to a global economic powerhouse—favourable demographics, its status as one among the world's largest democracies and a preponderance of English speakers, which helps ease business dealings with the West. Among these, demographics is especially seen by many as a significant factor—the country will soon dwarf the rest of the world when it comes to its working age population, that is people between 18 and 65 who are contributing members of society. Compared to North America, Japan and even China, India is an exceptionally young country. The majority of its population is less than 30years old and by 2020 the average age will be 29, compared to 45 in Western Europe and 48 in Japan.
For one, to reach a size of $20 trillion by 2030 and $42 trillion by 2050, India will have to grow at 7% annually for the next 30-35 years, which seems unlikely. Besides, the country's growth would require sustained economic reforms and increased investment in infrastructure, institutions and mass education. The country will also have to transform its agriculture completely, grow its services and manufacturing sectors and give a boost to tourism. A key challenge will be to get people out of agriculture and use them in the manufacturing and services sectors, while also ensuring that agricultural production in the country increases. Improved prospects of infrastructure will especially remain crucial to ensure the success of 'Make in India' initiative—which is aimed at attracting businesses and investors from around the globe to transform the country into a key global manufacturing hub. No growth prediction can skip the role of Indian Railways, the largest employer in the country. Railways can boost the country's GDP by 3% if the government manages to expand the rail network by 40,000 kilometres. Attracting foreign capital will continue to remain one of Modi's key challenges in leapfrogging India as a top global economy. Besides enhancing reform initiatives, cleansing the country's image as an increasingly intolerant regime when it comes to ensuring religious plurality. Apart from this, even freedom of expression will be crucial. Committed and sustained policy as well as economic reform initiatives to enhance IT, telecom, education and healthcare will also be important factors to transform India first to a $20 trillion economy by 2030 and eventually to a $42-trillion economy by 2050.

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 15 Oct 2015 12:26

Is China

religiously tolerant
Pluralistic
Democratic
Space for voicing dissent

How come suddenly all these parameters are applied for India ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 12:42

that is a filter specially applied to india only. not to any other growth economy.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 15 Oct 2015 20:04

PREPARE YOURSELF FOR A REVOLUTION
IN FINANCIAL MARKET
WHICH NEVER HAPPENED IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND

Recently, Mr. Nandan Nilkeni, a founder team member of Infosys and generator of the concept of Aadhar made one presentation of the impact this Aadhar linked cell phone will create and revolutionize the market in general and finance market in particular in India / world is a worth watching clip. I think the presentation of those 30 minutes will make you spell bound and speechless. How the technology is going to change the way we live in this world since the decades.... Major highlights of the presentation are as under.

1. There will be a massive disruption in financial services on back of technology revolution.

2. The telecom revolution has changed the desktop based environment to mobile interned based environment.

3. “Whats App movement” is the concept to understand this revolution because today 30 billion messages in a day are passed through Whats App in the world surpassing the SMS by large margin. This Whats App movement like revolution is going to take place in the world of finance making the concept of traditional banking and lending to go away.

4. We are moving from cash based society to cashless and digital society very very fast. Today India has more 900 million mobile users (More than 90 crores) which is a record in itself. The Aadhar when linked with the mobile set with IRIS authentication on will change the world we live in.

5. Today electronic clearing service NEFT-RTGS and IMPS have overtaken traditional payment system. With these 900 million mobile users, a mega trend is underway, which we are unable to apprehend. To put it in simple words, every mobile user will be an ATM.

6. When IRIS authentication (Biometric authentication linked with Aadhar server) will be on, the 900 million mobile users will be able to have online kyc, online authentication, online payment and online receipt on the basis of Unified Payment Interface (UPI). Smart phone will replace all type of debit and credit cards and Paytm like system will be fully operational. Physical cash to digital cash and digital cash to physical cash convertibility will be a game changer. Digital wallet and digital locker will revolutionize the security system. Enabling pear to pear payment system will do away many intermediaries and will be reimagining the infrastructure we have at present.

7. The whole process will lead to explosion of innovation, death of many businesses and birth of new ventures and business. India will become data scare to data rich country in five years in both, on consumer and business side. Credit process and credit appraisal will become obsolete and online loan payment will become possible. Think of 900 million people coming on one platform and remain connected!!! Almost all functions of the bank, government and taxation department will be done by Aadhar linked phones. This is even more important in the sense that IRIS authentication on cell phone is available only in India, no one has this system in the world!!!

8. Friends, this is not far away because the IRIS authentication on cell phone is practically started and will become a mass reality soon. So prepare yourself to live in the digitalized India with absolute transparency, no paper work, no bureaucratic intervention, no tax terrorism and much much more.

Watch "Disruption in Financial Services: Nandan Nilekani at TiE LeapFrog" on YouTube - https://youtu.be/aGM5TvAUF00

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 Oct 2015 21:35

Govt to import more pulses, use price stabilisation fund, says Jaitley

With retail prices of some pulses almost doubling in a year, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced some measures to address this. Expanding the price stabilisation fund’s coverage and creating a buffer stock are among these.

His announcement came after an inter-ministerial group he chaired had reviewed the situation.

The government had earlier set up a Rs 500-crore price stabilisation fund for onions and potatoes. It was meant for use by state governments, with the user government to bear half the cost of intervention in this regard, with the other half to come from this fund. The idea was to both give a reasonable price to farmers and affordable rates for consumers. It was recently used by the governments of Andhra and Telangana, to check the price of onions.

As mentioned earlier, Jaitley also said the government had decided to create a buffer stock of lentils, mainly through import. Some stock in this regard was available at the Navi Mumbai port, he told reporters, and states would be requested to lift these.

Wholesale price deflation for 11th straight month in September

General wholesale prices continued to fall for the 11th month in a row in September, but the decline decelerated to 4.54 per cent against 4.95 per cent in August. However, onions and pulses continued to witness increased price pressures, official data released on Wednesday showed.

The Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rose to 4.41 per cent against 3.74 per cent over this period, data released earlier this week had shown. As such, there are price pressures in both CPI and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) in September, particularly emanating from pulses and vegetables.

Disappointing lack of action on the foreign trade front:
Exports dip sharply for tenth straight month; fall 24.3% in Sept

India’s exports fell for the tenth consecutive month, contracting 24.3% in September to $21.84 billion as compared to $28.86 billion in September 2014, according to data released by the union commerce ministry on Thursday .

The significant slump in country's exports is attributed to global slowdown and declining commodity prices worldwide.

The last time exports registered a positive growth was in November 2014, when shipments had expanded at a rate of 7.27%.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 16 Oct 2015 00:07

How government's LED bulb push is helping save Rs 2.71 crore every day

MUMBAI: In recent months, cottage industries in Puducherry that make incense sticks, mats and perfumed candles have been staying open late into the night with their electricity costs intact. Nearly 600 km away in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh, farmers living in mud houses along the Krishna River no longer fret about shooting power bills while switching on lights at dusk.

This is all thanks to a government-sponsored LED distribution programme, which outlines the replacement of incandescent bulbs and CFLs with energy-efficient LED lamps.

"Today, almost 90% of all households in AP and Puducherry have replaced incandescent bulbs with LED lamps and the electricity bills of a household have reduced by up to Rs 200 every month."

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 16 Oct 2015 18:21

gashish wrote:
Toor is not a rabbi crop! It is kharif, normally sown in june - july time frame and harvested in march timeframe.

It's both. Read under the section: Suitable Climate for Toor Dal Farming. Also given the suitable climate it is understandable why some states grow it as Kharif and others as Rabbi.

Short duration toor dal can be harvested within 3-4 months.

http://agrifarming.in/toor-dal-farming

Arhar crop grown successfully in summer, rainy and winter season, April-Summer, June-Kharif or rainy, September-Rabi or winter season.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Oct 2015 00:26

Interesting debate on Manufacturing (from 2 years back) - from Rajya Sabha TV - shows interlinkage of Mfg and wider economy - all the things Modi and co are doing viz infra.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlKQX0XhsD4

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 17 Oct 2015 01:37

Dipanker wrote:
gashish wrote:
Toor is not a rabbi crop! It is kharif, normally sown in june - july time frame and harvested in march timeframe.
It's both. Read under the section: Suitable Climate for Toor Dal Farming. Also given the suitable climate it is understandable why some states grow it as Kharif and others as Rabbi.

Short duration toor dal can be harvested within 3-4 months.

http://agrifarming.in/toor-dal-farming
Arhar crop grown successfully in summer, rainy and winter season, April-Summer, June-Kharif or rainy, September-Rabi or winter season.

Your original assertion mentioned rabi only and you reasoned pricing of toor daal should not be linked to weak monsoon becuase it is grown in winter cycle.

Dipanker wrote: But the price of toor daal should not be so much linked with a week monsoon since toor daal is grown in the winter cycle ( rabbi crop ).

But most of the output of Tur happens in Kharif season in major tur producing regions, where initial rains in the kharif season are crucial. It is primarily a kharif crop for all practical purposes notwithstanding the fact that it can be grown in rabi season in deep south india where winters are mild . These regions are minor producers of tur and have little or no impact on national prices.

http://www.agriwatch.com/getarchreportp ... A1LnBkZg==

This discussion is OT here. We can take it to agri thread.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Oct 2015 04:08

Excellent posts, gashish.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 17 Oct 2015 06:15

gashish wrote: Your original assertion mentioned rabi only and you reasoned pricing of toor daal should not be linked to weak monsoon becuase it is grown in winter cycle.

Yes I should have corrected that but didn't bother, I knew I was at least partly right. However I don't think you are correct in this assertion of yours:

"Toor is not a rabbi crop! It is kharif, normally sown in june - july time frame and harvested in march timeframe."

Anything which is harvested in March can not be by definition called a Kharif crop, so you are incorrect about the harvesting part. Harvesting is done in October/November period. But if the harvesting is indeed done in March then it should be called Rabbi crop not Kharif crop.

But most of the output of Tur happens in Kharif season in major tur producing regions, where initial rains in the kharif season are crucial. It is primarily a kharif crop for all practical purposes notwithstanding the fact that it can be grown in rabi season in deep south india where winters are mild . These regions are minor producers of tur and have little or no impact on national prices.

http://www.agriwatch.com/getarchreportp ... A1LnBkZg==

This discussion is OT here. We can take it to agri thread.

Yes I can see that, particularly in light of the fact that toor dal does not require much rain and thus the arid/semi-arid region of Maharastra, Karnatka, Western UP, and MP are major producer of toor dal, a wise use of otherwise sub-optimally irrigated land.
However, I am positive that some toor dal is grown as Rabbi crop in some of the eastern states like Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Assam, and Orissa. I have seen it myself in two of the states. I used to wonder how this things grows in winter months practically without any rain or irrigation. Growing other kind of peas/gram did require irrigation.

My last post on the topic, I am not an agro-expert, I just got curious in the topic because of stratospheric toor dal prices!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Oct 2015 09:33

Govt to create 40K tons of buffer stock of pulses to check prices

The government today said it will buy 40,000 tonnes of pulses from farmers to create a buffer stock for controlling prices, which have soared up to Rs 190 per kg in the retail markets.

The government will purchase 30,000 tonnes of tur dal and 10,000 tonnes of urad dal from farmers at market rates, Minister of State for Agriculture Sanjeev Kumar Balyan told reporters here today.

In order to give relief to common man, he said the Kendriya Bhandar and Mother Dairy's Safal outlets would sell imported tur at Rs 120-130 per kg in Delhi. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have also started selling imported lentils.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 Oct 2015 19:47

PMO India ‏@PMOIndia 4h4 hours ago
Bad loans in the past few years is a problem but we can't only cry about it. We are trying to solve this problem: PM @narendramodi

I am guessing, NM has got some traction on the bad loans problem or else he wouldn't have mentioned it. Or I am reading too much into it.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Oct 2015 23:00

FT covered this topic last week. To access the article, type the article title into google. It's rather sensationalist since the data shows the problem is receding, but this is FT we are talking about, where only bad things happen in India:
Bad loans spiral in India’s ‘broken’ banking system

For public sector banks, bad loans and “stressed assets” together accounted for more than 14 per cent of assets at the end of June, compared with just 4.8 per cent for the more disciplined and profit-motivated private sector banks that account for only a quarter of all lending. One state bank exceeded 19 per cent of assets in bad and doubtful loans.

Bad loans from steel and power projects alone, according to HDFC Bank, could exceed $23bn, with five of the top 10 private steel producers under “severe stress” from the collapse in global prices.

Over the next four years, New Delhi says the state banks will need about $28bn in new capital. Of that some $11bn should come from the government and most of the rest from the market, with many of them listed and the government planning to cut its stakes to just over half.

The problem, say analysts, is that those capital infusions will simply keep them limping along, and the government has failed to impose the radical changes — including full privatisation — needed to return the system to health.

Percentage bad loans:

Code: Select all

Sector PublicSectorBanks 	PrivateSectorBanks 	ForeignBanks 	Overall
Mining 	1.4 	1.1 	0.3 	1.4
Iron & Steel 	10.5 	7.9 	3.6 	10.2
Textiles 	7.5 	6.4 	3.4 	7.3
Infrastructure 	30.9 	18.2 	32.8 	29.8
Aviation 	2.7 	0.4 	0 	2.4
Total 	53.1 	34.1 	40.0 	51.1

It's fairly obvious that fixing the infrastructure sector is the key here.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 19 Oct 2015 23:51

One simple point people seem to miss is that pulses are fungible as far as nutrition goes. If recipes equivalent to taste of the tur daal preparations are developed and popularized, then the dependency on one single pulse in exclusion to others will be reduced. As per gashish's post (thanks - very good table by the way) total Rabbi pulses are more than total Kharif pulses. Their production can move in opposite directions in that a drought year would have more Rabbi as long as there are unseasonable rains or delay.