The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Oct 2015 05:32

BO has perhaps bought stock in Halliburton Solar, which will set up Solyandra panels in Aleppo

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Oct 2015 06:40

I feel very depressed that no one is presenting the news from the pov of The Faithful, i.e., the ISIS. All Russian propaganda, Syrian propaganda, American, British, French, Iranian propaganda. Should we start a new dhaga bliss?
Consider todin's neuj:
1. RUSSIANS PLANES TO GET OLDER 5 TIMES FASTER!

2. Kuffar run from Damascus to see the glories of ISIS

3. Kuffar save ISIS 48 bullets

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 19 Oct 2015 06:51

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/18/middleeas ... index.html

The leader of an al Qaeda-linked group allegedly bent on attacking the West has been killed in an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria, U.S. officials said Sunday.

Sanafi al-Nasr, a Saudi citizen whose real name is Abdul Mohsen Adballah Ibrahim al Charekh, was the highest-ranking member of the Khorasan Group -- a collection of veteran al Qaeda jihadis which had moved into Syria, the Pentagon said in a statement.

The Pentagon is obviously lying because you guys all know the Russians really did this with their superb air campaign.

Not only that, as divulged on this forum, the Russians have unleashed their electronic war fare transmitter that blocks all communications between the US and the US created Al Qaeda terrorists groups in Syria. In other words the US is completely stymied in their communications among their soft, ineffective, warfare fighters (who are busy cursing each other back in their bunkers) and terrorists subordinates.

......I've got to stop.....I'm having too much fun......

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Oct 2015 06:57

TSJ, the poor man must have died of sorrow because the US had killed his assistants Al Qaeda #3, 27 times in Afghanistan.

The news should be presented as:

Al Nusiri embraces Shahadat, Americans mourn loss of $2M missile

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 07:25

ISIS is not a one man personality cult but has shown robust operational excellence numerous times. key thing is reduce the areas (revenues) under their caliphate to make them wither, trigger infighting and desertions....in the final phase there would be open war between those who want to live and negotiate safe passage (long jail terms in home countries which have no death penalty-EU) and those who want to go down fighting(chechens, americans)...the oppn need to corral them ever more tightly thats all.

beyond that whether its a american or russian bomb doing the job is not so important.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Oct 2015 08:29

The Russians aren't chasing individuals as targets. More of a military campaign from them unlike as in case of the US where from the times of Wild Wild West the American fighters or gangs tracked, chased and won bounties for catching / killing an individual.

For the US forces, if the 'individual' escapes, it will be water storage facility or occasionally, even the hospitals in the neighbourhood. Sure, there were Pakistanis in those hospitals but the Americans paid them to be there in the first place.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 08:51

yeah russia is trying to stabilize and increase the land holding of the assad govt which had shrunk to the suburbs of damascus!

deck of cards bounty hunting can only function if the land is under your basic control and only insurgency is left. or you have a whole lot of moles sitting on rooftops lasing ISIS meetings.

for sure even if the assad govt wins all of syria which is tough to imagine at this stage, there will be a ultra-violent iraqi style insurgency for years if the ISIS/Nusra are given pardons to "end" the war or manage to sneak home

so its better they be brought to battle and given their 72 imo even it takes more time. I feel the EU would also not mind having their 1000s of jihadis disposed off than coming home to long trials and convulsions from local islamist protests to free these "misguided youth"

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 19 Oct 2015 09:03

US is feeling the heat of Russian bombing. General sentiment is that Russia is doing the right thing and US is seen as propping up terrorists. Not for nothing, CNN anchor Fareed Zakaria suggests people to stop swooning over Putin.

This bombing of Al Nusra guy probably plays into the same strategy to fool folks like TSJ and/or aid in propagandu that US is also fighting terrorists....which is bullsh!t as things stand.
Putin, Syria,and Iran or neutral third party like some (

) would not mind this limited propagandu with a hope that such easy (and even imaginary) wins might trigger the change towards doing the right thing. That is the reason for people to not call it out even if it is fake .

General population in US and Pukistan are the two sets of unfortunate people who don't know their level of subservience to their govts. These pitiable folks get molested by their govt 24/7 and yet they put up brave face and do things like

.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Oct 2015 09:06

all the refugees should troop into London and UK and claim asylum. None of them should do a single days work while over there and rely completely on social security and breed 10 children each.This will break the welfare system and social security net and bring the snobs to their knees. In 5 years UK will become UP. United in Poverty.

this is the mode of warfare assad and russians must focus.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 19 Oct 2015 09:17

If Syria restores and sustains control on Aleppo, Latakia, Homs and Hama it would have controlled 90+% population. Aleppo Governate alone has 60% of Syrian population so it will be long drawn battle in Aleppo.

From wiki
Major urban areas - population
As of 2011:

Aleppo: 3.164 million
Damascus (capital): 2.65 million
Homs: 1.369 million
Hama: 933,000

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 19 Oct 2015 09:31

nearly 255 of the Syrian population, 99% Sunni, have left the country or perished.
By the time the country stabilizes, probably 40% of the population will have to be
displaced (or perished). hence, Assad can relocate Shias from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan
and Lebanon to empty shattered villages/cities, and have a more favourable demography.
A golden opportunity indeed.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2015 09:49

This is the first Official Map of Russian MOD of Syrian situation ,Atleast the way they see it

1 ) The Grey is ISIS.
2 ) The green "Al-Nusra"- so they just lumped all the anti-Syrian government forces right there and called it a day.
3 ) Purple is Islamic Front.
4 ) The FSA is in the light blue
5 ) White/Other is Syrian Army

https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/26001/9 ... 7e5d2_orig

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2015 09:55

IT seems ISIS is controlling a very large area in Syria but these areas are also the sparsely populated front.

AL-Nusra has made significant inroads in populated areas.

Seems a partition is the best option else its a stalemate

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2015 10:00

My thinking is Russians are there not because they can change the fate of Assad any way but in any future negotiation the presense of Russia in Syria would give Iran/Iraq/Russia to guard their strategic interest.

Assad is as much useful tool to Russia as it is to Iran or Iraq , He will eventually get booted for sure.

They must surely have a Plan B of who will replace Assad if he gets killed as the war is nothing new and is 4 years and Saudi/GCC/CIA must have surely have some special ops mission to hunt and kill Assad.

Also Russia presense would mean any future president wont have the option to lets bomb the hell out of Assad and create a Libya like scenario.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2015 10:07

Iraq Army Chief praises Iran and Russia

Iraqi Commander Praises Iran, Russia's Morale-Boost Supports

TEHRAN (FNA)- A senior volunteer commander underlined that the supports by Iran and Russia to Iraq in the Arab country's ongoing fight against the ISIL terrorists have helped boost the morale of the Iraqi forces.

"The quadrilateral coalition formed by Iraq, Iran, Russia and Syria has resulted in helping the Iraqi forces to keep their spirits high because the alliance members are serious in their fight against the terrorists," Iraqi Volunteer Forces Commander Hassan al-Sari told FNA on Sunday.

He underscored that the US has not had any role in the recent victories gained by the Iraqi forces in Beiji, and said, "The quadrilateral coalition is fighting against the ISIL on behalf of the whole world."

Several Iranian commanders have stated that Syria and Iraq should wait for new victories in the near future.

"We will witness proper advances (against terrorists) in the two war-torn countries of Iraq and Syria," Lieutenant Commander of the IRGC Ground Force for Coordination Brigadier General Abolqassem Foroutan told reporters in the city of Ahvaz, Southern Iran, on Sunday addressing the funeral ceremony of two Iranian generals, Farshad Hasounizadeh and Hamid Mokhtarband, who were martyred in Syria.

He pointed to the presence of Iranian military advisors in Syria and Iraq, and said, "The presence of Iranian military advisors on different scenes will result in sustainable security and tranquility in the region."

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Oct 2015 10:08

around 1500 shias from Pakistan are in Syria fighting on behalf of assad.

mean-e-while
Cameron is on the weed again ..

David Cameron will request the assistance of China in its campaign against terror groups in Syria
* * * * *
http://sputniknews.com/politics/2015101 ... z3oyd67g2F

another snippet from web space this time for tsj

the russians fired 26 cruise missiles because the 26th president of america was theodore roosevelt. the name of a certain aircraft carrier located in the gulf. it has since moved. a nice succinct message from russia it seems?

the jammer

Richag-AV
electronic countermeasures system is designed to JAM RADAR, SONAR and other detection systems in the aims of defending aircraft, helicopters, drones, ground and naval forces against air-to-air and surface-to-air defense systems within a RADIUS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED KILOMETERS. It can be mounted on units from any branch of the armed forces, including helicopters and airplanes, as well as ground and ship-based forces.

The Mi8-MTPR1-based Richag-AV platform, using multi-beam antenna arrays with DRFM technology, is designed to actively jam and thus 'blind' radar systems in order to defend against radio-electronic guided weapons systems. In a combat situation, the system would operate as part of an aviation shock attack group aimed at breaking through virtually any defense system, BLINDING EVERYTHING up to and INCLUDING THE US MIM-104 'PATRIOT' ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILE SYSTEM.

http://sputniknews.com/military/2015030 ... z3ot368bF5

Iranian uvacha

IRGC Commander: 100,000 Volunteer Forces Organized in Syria

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.as ... 0725000756

On popular demand.
Bositive News from ISIS
************

Gillette, manufacture of Razor Blades, is in business, it stock have gone up by 2.3 percent, as there is huge demand for its razors, well large number of clean shaved jihadis have been spotted heading out of Turkey!

************

Toyota stocks are down by 2 percent, as a lucrative business in the pickup has come to a sudden halt, the fingers are being pointed to a character called Abu Teen, and some say Abu Putin, or Hajj Putin.

************

CIA grabbed hold of fleeing jihadist across Turkish border and asked for the money back for the pickups, the Jihad boys told the Goons, that they are drivers and they ride them, they own nothing, they don't even eat meat now, they eat rice pudding, and they are changed now and have nothing to do with anything no more!

************

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Oct 2015 10:28

Austin wrote:IT seems ISIS is controlling a very large area in Syria but these areas are also the sparsely populated front.

AL-Nusra has made significant inroads in populated areas.

Seems a partition is the best option else its a stalemate

Austin Saar, it is too early to reflect on partition etc. I think at least 90 days of Russian air action along with Syrian ground action will make it clear is the areas are being lost or retaken by the Syrian forces.

In the map, I think there are number of fighters (estimated) mentioned in each area with every respective group. Those numbers and the size of area are the key performance indicators on the progress of this conflict. Since the conflict is also in urban areas with the terrorists having had 03/04 yrs to deeply entrench with tunnels, interconnected rooms, etc, the progress will be slow. Plus the terrorists will also have support from local Sunnis who have still not entered "Refugee" status.

A report above on Al Nusra front forcing young boys to join is an indicator that their numbers are under pressure. Also, this will break their local support. Plus, this also means that the combatants are no more all volunteers. The difference between a "Voluntary' force and a "Conscripted" force is huge even with training.

The terrorists will find it increasingly difficult to hold onto all those areas separated by geography. If the Russians continue with this intensity Al Nusra front will have located to 01 / 02 strong holds in and around Idlib with other areas seeing a J&K like insurgency.

The battle with ISIS is still not clear as the Russians and Syrians have not tangled much with them except for aerial bombings and the conflict at Deir Ezzor.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Oct 2015 10:34

according to net chatter, the SAA are only one village away from Kuweyres military air base in Aleppo. This air base is being defended by a small military outpost for past 3 years.

http://wikimapia.org/3342118/Kuweyres-Military-Airbase

If you look here, the Kuweyres air base is at eastern edge of Aleppo, almost on border with Raqqa.

What remains in Aleppo with IS is just the northern edge strip adj to Turkey.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 11:02

robert fisk in Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/wit ... 98866.html

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Oct 2015 11:32

Barring exceptions like the article by Robert Fisk above the MSM of the West (EU /US) is equal to our DDM in propagating myths that certain cabals want to spread.

We are seeing the same kind of battle in our media space. The rot in Journalism is truly global.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 12:08

The Australian newspaper is reporting from Latakia that Rus plans to scale up sorties to some 200-300 a day from current 50.
at present they have 30 fixed wing and 20 rotary onsite but work is ongoing to build up a nearby airstrip.

syrian forces send list of potential targets
russian drones overfly to get imagery
things like mosques, churches and schools are scrubbed even if they harbour rebels for fear of angering public opinion
final target list is made

its premium content but came up for first time when I clicked
Russia plans 300 Syrian sorties a day
Blog-The Australian (blog)-Oct 17, 2015

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Oct 2015 12:22

Fisk's article in full.

Everyone wrote off the Syrian army. Take another look now
All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure in the Middle East
Robert Fisk |

A Syrian army soldier flashes a 'V for victory' sign as his tank travels northeast of Damascus Getty Images

While the world still rages on at Russia’s presumption in the Middle East – to intervene in Syria instead of letting the Americans decide which dictators should survive or die – we’ve all been forgetting the one institution in that Arab land which continues to function and protect the state which Moscow has decided to preserve: the Syrian army. While Russia has been propagandising its missiles, the Syrian military, undermanned and undergunned a few months ago, has suddenly moved on to the offensive. Earlier this year, we may remember, this same army was being written off, the Bashar al-Assad government said to be reaching its final days.

We employed our own army of clichés to make the case for regime change. The Syrian army was losing ground – at Jisr al-Shugour and at Palmyra – and so we predicted that the whole Assad state had reached a “tipping point”.

Then along came Vladimir Putin with his air and missile fleets and suddenly the whole place is transformed. While we huffed and puffed that the Russians were bombing the “moderate” rebels – moderates who had earlier ceased to exist according to America’s top generals – we’ve been paying no attention to the military offensive which the Syrians themselves are now staging against the Nusra Front fighters around Aleppo and in the valley of the Orontes.

Donald Trump is much derided – but he is right about the Middle East

Syrian commanders are now setting the coordinates for almost every Russian air strike. They were originally giving between 200 and 400 coordinates a night. Now the figure sometimes reaches 800. Not that the Russians are going after every map reference, of course. The Syrians have found that the Russians do not want to fire at targets in built-up areas; they intend to leave burning hospitals and dead wedding parties to the Americans in Afghanistan. This policy could always change, of course. No air force bombs countries without killing civilians. Nor without crossing other people’s frontiers.

But the Russians are now telling the Turks – and by logical extension, this information must go to the Americans – their flight coordinates. Even more remarkable, they have set up a hotline communications system between their base on the Syrian Mediterranean coast and the Israeli ministry of defence in Tel Aviv. More incredible still is that the Israelis – who have a habit of targeting Syrian and Iranian personnel near the Golan Heights – have suddenly disappeared from the skies. In other words, the Russians are involved in a big operation, not a one-month wonder that is going on in Syria. And it is likely to continue for quite a time.

The Syrians were originally anxious to move back into Palmyra, captured by Isis last May, but the Russians have demonstrated more interest in the Aleppo region, partly because they believe their coastal bases around Lattakia are vulnerable. The Nusra Front has fired several missiles towards Lattakia and Tartous and Moscow has no desire to have its air force targeted on the ground. But the Syrian army is now deploying its four major units – the 1st and 4th Divisions, Republican Guards and Special Forces – on the battle fronts and are moving closer to the Turkish border.

Russian air strikes around the Isis “capital” of Raqqa may or may not be hurting Isis, although the Syrians like to boast that they have plenty of intelligence coming to them from the city. Interesting, if true, because Isis personnel are specialists in torturing to death “agents of the regime” and it would be a brave man to pass on information to Damascus. Yet travellers’ tales can be true. There’s a regular civilian bus route from Raqqa to Damascus – buses have an odd habit of crossing front lines in most civil wars – and if passengers prefer not to talk to journalists, they will talk of what they have seen when they get home.

All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure. He is proving to be quite a traveller to the Middle East – and has already made firm friends of another pillar of the region, that President-Field Marshal who scored more than 96 per cent at the polls and who currently rules Egypt. But the Egyptian army, fighting its little war in Sinai, no longer has strategic experience of a major war. Nor, despite their dalliance in the air over Yemen, Libya, Syria and other targets of opportunity, do the present military authorities in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan have much understanding of how a real war is fought. Libya’s own army is in bits. Iraq’s military has scarcely earned any medals against its Islamist enemies.

But there is one factor which should not be overlooked.

If it wins – and if it holds together and if its manpower, which is admittedly at a low level, can be maintained – then the Syrian military is going to come out of this current war as the most ruthless, battle-trained and battle-hardened Arab army in the entire region. Woe betide any of its neighbours who forget this.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 13:30

NDTV

LONDON: British parents worried that their 16 and 17-year-old children might travel to Syria or Iraq under the influence of terrorists will be able to apply to have their passports removed, Prime Minister David Cameron will say on Monday.

The measure is aimed at disrupting a steady stream of young Britons lured by the Islamic State's radical ideology to join the terrorist group fighting in the Middle East.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Oct 2015 13:56

^^^ Strange, they let this happen for so long - 04 / 05 yrs and when the Russians start bombing and killing terrorists, the British are giving the Jihaadi parents a chance to save their kids. Either the British decision making is very slow or the the voters in UKistan put pressure on their MPs.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 19 Oct 2015 13:59

Question for Gurus..
How much money does one need to plonk to run a Air campaign like Russians are organizing in Syria.
This question is important since due to low Oil prices, Russian economy is no longer booming and it is before time that a expensive campaign will come to a halt. ISIS Armymen can play for time till Russia has no more bombs or money left for a expensive venture like this.
Syria being Syria cannot really sponsor Russia while Iran has its own empty coffers.

Moreover how large is the Russian inventory of Missiles and Bombs, although Putin could be taking a leaf out of American book and trying to revive its defense industry by this massive display of superior power for a short term. Sort of Sales demo for potential buyers.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 19 Oct 2015 14:07

The so called $21B arms purchase from Iran is meant as payback for this.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Oct 2015 14:30

Once the money ends up they will all fold things up and go back home I guess. Since is money is limited no ? Anyways CNN & BBC do not tire of reminding the Russians that their economy is in bad shape and the Chinese growth is slowing down drastically. And what about their own pathetic economies, that is top secret and always AAA.

Russians are also constantly reminded by experts on CNN & BBC and also John McCain, telegraph, daily mail etc that Afghanistan redux can happen to them anytime and they will have to go back with tail tucked between legs. anyway the bumble bee knows not that is not aerodynamic. So it flies merrily. Will the bumble bee have to stop one day when it finally finds out that it is not aerodynamic ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2015 14:40

Cost is a very relative thing , because Russian Navy has been running Syrian Express for many years now ( just google for Syrian express ) not to mention a huge amount of Aid Food etc by EMERCON over period of many years ( since the crisis started )

Some of the exercise conducted by Russian Armed forces lasting weeks are on much bigger scale compared to Syrian air campaign and with CSTO nation.

A good question for Russian Decison maker would be what cost to pay if the 1500-3000 battle hardened Jihadi from CIS comes back and cost of no action taken in Syria to defeat or degrade them there.

It seems they are already worried about the people joining ISIS from CIS and the future consequences if they return back

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 15:20

chechnya+dagestani jihadis are est 7000 per a report i read. thats a lot considering they did not go there to be cooks and drivers but to form the hard core of the ISIS elite shock troops.

its dumb british and american middle class jihadis who do the cooking, menial work and drive the suicide trucks...chechens bless them, take selfies with them and send them on their way to glory and 72.

a retired georgian soldier Abu omar al shishani seems like the leader of the emigrants brigade and overall northern GOC-in-C of the isis heartland ..some of his videos should be on youtube.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Omar_al-Shishani

georgia is a direct neighbour of that region of russia and obviously will do nothing to block the to and fro movement.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Oct 2015 16:06

^^^ Singha ji, that link is an interesting read. Abu_Omar is no more the leader of the Mujahireen Brigade or the emigrant brigade. His defection to the ISIS has caused the Chechens (al -Shishanis) to reject him. The Chechens have their own oath of allegiance to "Dokka Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate." (from the wiki link).

Also, interesting to note that Abu_Omar had expelled Saifullah (the Chechen leader who led the failed attack on the prison) on some charges.

Many faultlines within the Chechens and among the Takfiri Terrorists.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Oct 2015 16:09

Once the money ends up they will all fold things up and go back home I guess.

That's what Adolf was told by his advisors in 1942. For the same reasons mentioned (sanctions, low oil prices etc) Comrade Vlad has no alternative, just as Comrade Josef had no alternative in 1941 onwards. IOW the sanctions have been waaaaay too successful for their own good. What happens to oil prices when the Yemen snafu turns into a total rout, and the Ayatollahs rule the Straits of Hormuz again?

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 19 Oct 2015 16:36

Kati wrote:nearly 255 of the Syrian population, 99% Sunni, have left the country or perished.
By the time the country stabilizes, probably 40% of the population will have to be
displaced (or perished). hence, Assad can relocate Shias from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan
and Lebanon to empty shattered villages/cities, and have a more favourable demography.
A golden opportunity indeed.

That is incorrect. Syria is majority sunni, 255k killed does not mean they are all sunni nor they constitute 99% of sunnis.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 16:38

https://youtu.be/_V7dVuJELHM

Speech by al shishani. One of many on YouTube.

At one point he has difficulty listing all the countries whose jihadis have flocked to his banner

But must be a born leader and very shrewed to keep such a pack under control. Just education and family background does not a leader make.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 16:52

Ulanbatori there is a happy looking uighur in the later part of this video
https://youtu.be/qKs9UzMKoMg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 17:00

Non Isis jihadi orgs seem to constantly split and merge onto new formations and names. Seems to be hundreds of outfits in western Syria alone.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2015 17:18

Interview with Kremlin Chief of Staff ,Explains how Syria operation was planned etc

http://tass.ru/en/politics/829778

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 19 Oct 2015 19:51

syria is about 20% alawite, and there are a number of other minorities, but the majority (45-50% or so) are Sunnis. over the centuries, given an opportunity the sunnis try to drive the alawites into the sea. the french after ww1 promoted the alawites to control the country so that the sunni tribes could be smashed. the alawites have hung on to power ever since. given the chance the sunnis would love to string them up again. there are alawites in turkey too...
no middle eastern country is all that homogenous

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Oct 2015 21:09

Why has the intifada kicked into high gear again?

Around 2000bc it seems a meteor aiming to hit Europe explodes in mid air over the northern part of dead sea, wiping out biblical cities like Sodom and Gomorrah.
This was interpreted by the 3 abrahamic religions to mean god punishing sinners. Now ruins of Sodom are located. For 700 yrs nobody lived in that scorched place.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Oct 2015 21:53

This is a Sunni-Shia armed struggle as well as a financial war of attrition between the Sunnis and Shias. On the surface, the Saudis will be able to hold out longer, bigger reserves relative to their budget deficit, plus they have already started issuing sovereign bonds which will be subscribed because of the US$-riyal peg.

The Russians are weaker financially, and because of the ruble troubles they cannot really issue ruble debt,but they are getting a much better bang for the buck from their Syrian air campaign. Very difficult to estimate, but because their aircraft, munitions and fuel is domestic and priced in depreciated rubles, they are probably spending not more than $ 10 million a day (even this may be a gross overestimate by a factor of 2X), they could be spending at little as $5 million per day. We are so used to grotesquely huge US numbers when the Americans go to war, that it's difficult to believe but war can be waged cost effectively if you are producing everything in house.

But I would expect the Russians and to a large extent Iran (as soon as they get their blocked money and start exporting oil) to ramp up efforts considerably in Syria and Yemen to make the Saudis bleed money at a much higher rate. Based on current financial trends the Saudis will be able to hold out to maybe 2018, before they have to devalue the riyal, the Russians will have to give in much sooner, hence expect the Russian/Iranian combo to initiate other moves.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Oct 2015 22:31

Seems to be hundreds of outfits in western Syria alone.

Modeled on commie-paki outfits in USA. Maybe they get the training from the same ppl?
Anarchist Entrepreneurship (AE) 401. Prequisites: AE301: Pakiness.