The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 18:31

graph looks suspicious to me, speed would increase if the purple shows altitude dropping by 1000s of feet yet it shows nearly same in green line.

if cabin has pressure loss, I think pilots descend to 10,000 ft where external air and temp is ok

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Oct 2015 18:33

Well, that part of Egypt, unfortunately, is infested with the bad guys. So, it is possible that this pilot was taking precautions to just get out of that area and back home.

However, teh question is a climb of any sort normal for that area (I have to assume it is). Then, is THAT particular climb normal? Finally, did that climb impact anything to cause a loss of altitude. Which then caused a crash. I highly doubt these are the events. Wild as that climb is I very much doubt ti was teh cause.

I Think there has got to be something else.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Oct 2015 18:37

Singha wrote:graph looks suspicious to me, speed would increase if the purple shows altitude dropping by 1000s of feet yet it shows nearly same in green line.

if cabin has pressure loss, I think pilots descend to 10,000 ft where external air and temp is ok

Understandable. The world is full of jokers everywhere, each one trying to out do the other and slink away from the Truth.

However, that graph could have been manipulated (see above), but I think unless the Russian pilot tinkered with the transponder - which seems to be an acceptable procedure out there - it better be true.

There should be ample automated sites that can provide details................BUT they all assume that the transponder is true.

So, back to square one.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 18:38

http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash ... ht-7k9268/

this data from a reliable website shows everything was ok in climb rate and speed until the cliff.

100 knots speed @ 30000 ft might indicate a unpowered stall....i dont think its even takeoff speed at sea level.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 18:39

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Oct 2015 18:41

If I remember correctly a French flight from Brazil stalled out on a steep climb and the instruments did not accurately reflect the climb rate to the pilots. Was it too, an Airbus?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 18:45

A330 but at night , over the ocean...this was in the middle of day, over land

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Franc ... nal_report

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Oct 2015 18:54

Singha wrote:http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash ... ht-7k9268/

this data from a reliable website shows everything was ok in climb rate and speed until the cliff.

100 knots speed @ 30000 ft might indicate a unpowered stall....i dont think its even takeoff speed at sea level.

Hmmmmmmmm.............................

This graph is missing the first 3.5 mins or so - it has only trailing 20 minutes!!!

If we look at the other graph - the "wild climb" took place in those first 3.5 minutes.

Besides that are the colors in this graph turned around? Also, the units of speed are they the same (between the two graphs)?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Oct 2015 18:55

OK, I am done.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 19:02

http://aviation.stackexchange.com/quest ... om-a-stall

The main thing that is required for a stall recovery is just the ability to drop the nose to decrease angle-of-attack and regain airspeed (and, of course, adding power helps, too.) Except in the case of deep stall, there is still sufficient air flowing over the horizontal stabilizers (and, thus, the elevators) in an airliner to push the nose down during a stall. Furthermore, most airplanes (including nearly all, if not all, airliners) are designed with a center of gravity forward of the center of lift. In normal flight, the air flow over the horizontal stabilizers actually pushes the back of the plane down, which holds up the nose. During a stall, this airflow is reduced (still present, but to a lesser degree,) which will cause the nose to tend to drop by default during a stall condition, even if the pilot (or autopilot) gives no additional control inputs at all. As such, normal (e.g. not fighters or aerobatic planes) will recover from a stall on their own with no additional control inputs, given enough altitude.

As already mentioned, some altitude is also usually required for successful stall recovery. This is because the recovery procedures involve dropping the nose which will briefly result in some descent. The lack of sufficient altitude to recover was the main problem in Asiana 214, which crashed just short of the runway in San Francisco. The aircraft was already too low and too slow to recover before the pilots acted. If I remember correctly, they started attempting a go-around only about 7 seconds before the aircraft impacted the seawall. At that point, there was nothing they could do. A small, piston-engine aircraft probably still could have recovered from that situation because piston engines spin up much, much faster than jet engines and could provide the power needed to recover much faster. Pushing the nose down alone would still technically have recovered the plane from the stall condition in this case, but that wouldn't have been very helpful, since it would have meant a nose-first impact into either San Francisco Bay or the seawall, which would obviously have been a much worse outcome.

Another problem that can happen (though is very, very unlikely on an actual airline flight, but much more likely on cargo flights in airliners) is for the cargo to shift to the point that the center of gravity is too far from where it's designed to be for stall recovery to be possible. This is what happened on National Airlines Flight 102, a 747 cargo flight departing from Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan. Very shortly after takeoff, the cargo shifted to the back of the aircraft, preventing the pilots from being able to lower the nose enough to keep the plane from stalling. It stalled and crashed before ever leaving the property of the airfield.

In general, pitch stability (more precisely known as longitudinal static stability) is what makes an aircraft capable of stall recovery, not maneuverability. While it may seem counter-intuitive to those not familiar with aerodynamics, it's likely actually easier to recover from a stall in an airliner than it is in a fighter (and almost certainly easier to recover in, say, a Piper or Cessna than a jet fighter.) This is because more maneuverable aircraft (such as fighters and aerobatics aircraft) are usually less stable than less maneuverable aircraft like airliners and normal GA aircraft.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Oct 2015 19:16

If u r in a commercial plane, and u hear a Missile Launch Warning, what can u do except climb toward the sun and pray? So the question to ask is, how long b4 the disappearance from radar was the climb? Maybe he climbed, but the engines flamed out, and then he could not get them restarted, so he asked for emergency landing, but did not make it. Perhaps one engine had been blown up by the Stinger?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Oct 2015 19:28

TSJones wrote: such as flight travel, vacations at ancient ruins, etc, is now considered risky business depending on where you are going.

Not at all! You could be going from Beijing to Buenos Aires, but buy ur ticket on Travelocity and they will route you through Sharm El Sheik, Kampala and Johannesburg.

Also, those 1000 Stingers given to the Flee Syrian aka Al Nusra Fleedom Fighters and the SAMs given to the Humanitarian Democractic Republics of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will eventually come up above the Surface Into the Air. All over the world. A great thought as you go to sleep on an flight. Say ur prayers well b4 u go to sleep, just as u were taught as a child. It doesn't last more than a couple of minutes b4 one loses consciousness, mercifully.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 19:34

Ulan pls stop the TSJ baiting and stick to somewhere near the thread topic.

other than maybe El-Al airplanes, I do not think non-VVIP planes have MAWS ... or any sort of warning/self defence.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 19:44

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 826589.ece

1950 IST

A militant group affiliated to Islamic State in Egypt claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt's Sinai peninsula on Saturday, the group said in a statement circulated by supporters on Twitter.

Egyptian security sources earlier on Saturday said early investigations suggested the plane crashed due to a technical fault.

The claim of responsibility was also carried by the Aamaq website which acts as a semi official news agency for Islamic State.

"The fighters of the Islamic State were able to down a Russian plane over Sinai province that was carrying over 220 Russian crusaders. They were all killed, thanks be to God," the statement circulated on Twitter said.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 31 Oct 2015 19:44

If it turns out that it was a missile or terror attack that brought down the airliner, ISIS is going to strap itself in and feel the G's. They'll drop FOABs on them.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Oct 2015 19:50

I think realizing that you are in a high altitude stall is a difficult thing if your instruments aren't working correctly. 30,000 feet above clouds can be strange territory even in daylight.

recovering can be easy IF you are cognizant of the situation.

I think a pair of fuzzy dice dangling in the cockpit might even be helpful. russian cosmonauts use a dangling small teddy bear in the soyuz capsule.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 19:51

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/ ... r-ria.ashx

MOSCOW: Russia's Investigative Committee said on Saturday it was checking fuel samples from the last refueling stop, in the Russian city of Samara, of an airliner that crashed in Egypt, RIA news agency reported citing the committee's spokesman.

The spokesman, Vladimir Markin, also said investigators are questioning people who were involved in preparing the aircraft and its crew, and carrying out searches at Moscow's Domodedovo airport where the airline that operated the plane is based.

Earlier in the day the committee said it had opened a criminal case against the airline.
---

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2015 20:06

Claim that terrorists caused Russian airlines crash in Egypt "can't be considered accurate", says Russian transport minister
20:43 PM

The North Sinai prosecution office summoned air and ground traffic control officials for questioning over the incident, and ordered a technical team from the Civil Aviation Ministry to analyse the contents of the plane's black box, said state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram's website.
20:42 PM

Egypt prosecutor general to allow Russian government agency to participate in investigation of crashed Russian plane

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 31 Oct 2015 20:21

Singha wrote:http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 826589.ece

1950 IST

A militant group affiliated to Islamic State in Egypt claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt's Sinai peninsula on Saturday, the group said in a statement circulated by supporters on Twitter.

Egyptian security sources earlier on Saturday said early investigations suggested the plane crashed due to a technical fault.

The claim of responsibility was also carried by the Aamaq website which acts as a semi official news agency for Islamic State.

"The fighters of the Islamic State were able to down a Russian plane over Sinai province that was carrying over 220 Russian crusaders. They were all killed, thanks be to God," the statement circulated on Twitter said.

Do not know how authentic this video is but it claims to show the plane being shot down/exploding supposedly by ISIS/ISIL.

Reuters report

A militant group affiliated to Islamic State in Egypt claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt's Sinai peninsula on Saturday, the group said in a statement circulated by supporters on Twitter.

Egyptian security sources earlier on Saturday said early investigations suggested the plane crashed due to a technical fault.

The claim of responsibility was also carried by the Aamaq website which acts as a semi official news agency for Islamic State.

"The fighters of the Islamic State were able to down a Russian plane over Sinai province that was carrying over 220 Russian crusaders. They were all killed, thanks be to God," the statement circulated on Twitter said.

member_29089 · Post by **member_29089** » 31 Oct 2015 20:36

Listing the possibilites:

1) (ISIS) Muslims fired an A2A missile and shot down the Russian (kuffar) plane
2) Muslim pilots crashed the Russian (kuffar) plane
3) Muslim crew member smuggled a bomb onboard and it exploded on the Russian (kuffar) plane
4) Muslim passenger smuggled a bomb onboard the russian (kuffar) plane and it exploded
5) A321 Autopilot changed it's religion to Islam midair and stopped thinking logically
6) Another small plane piloted by a Muslim pilot crashed into the Russian (kuffar) plane
7) Engine changed it's religion to Islam and suicided
8 ) Allah's wrath caused a fire on the Russian (kuffar) plane
9) Allah's wrath caused a hydraulics leak on the Russian (kuffar) plane
10) Pilots had a meal poisoned by a Muslim and both died thus crashing the plane

My bet is on #1 above because Islam is a religion of Peace

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Oct 2015 21:00

there was an odd report quoting a senior US official saing IS is in Sinai.
I wondered that means Egypt has also fallen to IS and on other side of Israel.

Looks like its a cover or precursor to this incident.

Will look at google.
Others can also help find it.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 31 Oct 2015 21:18

ldev wrote:...
Reuters report
A militant group affiliated to Islamic State in Egypt claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt's Sinai peninsula on Saturday, the group said in a statement circulated by supporters on Twitter.

Egyptian security sources earlier on Saturday said early investigations suggested the plane crashed due to a technical fault.

The claim of responsibility was also carried by the Aamaq website which acts as a semi official news agency for Islamic State.

"The fighters of the Islamic State were able to down a Russian plane over Sinai province that was carrying over 220 Russian crusaders. They were all killed, thanks be to God," the statement circulated on Twitter said.

How did the ISIS figure out before shooting this plane that it is a Russian plane with Russian passengers?

member_29089 · Post by **member_29089** » 31 Oct 2015 21:35

deejay wrote:
ldev wrote:...
Reuters report

<chop>

How did the ISIS figure out before shooting this plane that it is a Russian plane with Russian passengers?

There are several ways. Some ground staff could verify the flight take off and then call the bad guys. Flight path and flight tracking software can be used to verify before saying Allah-Hu-Akbar and firing the missile etc etc (Russian airliner would most-likely have Russian passengers, but would the Islamic Terrorists care?)

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 31 Oct 2015 21:44

This is a huge error in judgement by the Americans that scaring Russians will do the trick. This is not 80s and this is not Gorbochev at helm. If Americans crossed the line here, Putin will not hesitate to hurt Americans where it would hurt most. Consider it done that, Iran will dominate in coming days in middle east politics and muscle out the Amreekis out of Persian Gulf.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 31 Oct 2015 21:47

>>Well, that part of Egypt, unfortunately, is infested with the bad guys. So, it is possible that this pilot was taking precautions to just get out of that area and back home.

No it is not NRao...I flew almost that same route earlier this month, and there wasn't the slightest hint that there was any issue going over the Sinai... Flew a leading global airline known to err on the side of caution.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Oct 2015 22:12

So from Russian report of checking fuel samples, ISIS may have managed to contaminate the fuel enough to make engines stall? What explains the steep climb except a missile avoidance attempt?

Stinger is infrared.
Advertised ceiling of 10,000 feet, range of ~8km.

What if one figures out how to strap on an additional booster stage and use a longer/triple-sized tube, and mounts it on a white Toyota? Multi-stage fireworks rockets are known from Tenkasi Brand 007, even 1960s-vintage, not a big deal except to order the main motor to fire as the extender is expended - this will have to be done with some wireless command, or they will have to rig the trigger with something that triggers as the lower stage burns out. The system will still track the biggest infrared source in view, and its fins will guide it accordingly. So I think the range and ceiling can be extended quite a lot without any major system changes.
Its the homing and guidance and warhead that u pay the big $ for - $38K per the FAS link above. The booster is Tenkasi/ RPG technology.
If someone is selling these rigged missiles indiscriminately to terrorists, and I know at least one organization that sold/sells Stingers to Islamic terrorists, air travel anywhere in the world has just become a fine form of Russian Roulette.

Look at the climb time - it takes a few minutes for a ground-launched missile to overtake a plane going Mach 0.85 at 10km above the ground.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Oct 2015 22:19

Saudi Arabia orders Russia and Iran to vacate Syria

Didn't Putin visit KSA and try to reason with them? Wonder what his response to this is going to be. KSA seems to be punching way above their weight class these days. "Vinasa Kale" etc..

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 31 Oct 2015 22:19

While it's too early to conclude what brought this plane down, other airlines are taking no chances:

Lufthansa and Air France to avoid flying over Sinai

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Oct 2015 22:21

Both are Airboos users. Wonder if there is a correlation

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 31 Oct 2015 23:20

Satya_anveshi wrote:He identifies only 3 parties having conviction to save Assad so the other 6 included in Vienna conf are doing sunni bidding. So, it is 6:3 in favor of terrorists (neutral facade of egypt will vamoose and so of Turkey).

The vienna conf should be taught as part and parcel of Secularism#101 where even Saudi Arabia has butted in, as part and parcel of conf with nothing but clear aim to dislodge an elected Govt, with open line of excuse that the Syrian President is an Alawite and not a Sunni from the MAJORITY. That is all is needed in 'Vienna, even if Saudi Arabia itself has no idea of democracy at all. It is a clear attempt at political interference. There are I think 3 sides in this conf:
(1) Syrian Govt, with Iran, Russia: Want to preserve Syria as it is, ready to hold elections and to crush ISIL terrorists.
(2) Saudi with other Sunni Arab countries: Want regime change in a foreign country based on religious/sectarian lines.
(3) Rest, US/Europe: In for realpolitic, oil, suppression of WMDs.

I think the conf should be broadcast live for all to see what kind of international politicking goes about. The actual people affected including Yazids seem to have no representatives most shockingly.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Nov 2015 00:23

the Russian airliner crashing is a redline drawn to Putin.

Looks like war will extend as folks are still in Cold war mode.

Its odd that US official talking about IS in Sinai yesterday and this happens.

too much coincidental.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Nov 2015 01:14

first video of the crash site

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Nov 2015 01:25

Shooting down a civilian airliner is stupid, no matter who does it. If someone wanted Russia to send strategic bombers and even Antonovs filled with bombs and shower them on themselves, they couldn't have done anything more foolish. So you ask: who did it?
1) Have ISIS' controllers become so desperate that they are "taking as many with them as possible"? If you strike that possibility,
2) Did ISIS mid-level commanders get so enraged by the pest-e-sha'eed of their stores and carnation-earned subordinates that they demanded revenge, and the Top Level had to agree to let them do this?
3) If they have the capability to hit at high altitude and speed, why not try that out say, outside Latakia with a Russian transport coming in? So much more PR value if they could claim that it was 200 Special Forces, like they did to the US Marines back in 1982?

4) So we are forced to the conclusion that the ISIS was **NOT*** who did this. Brings you to the next most plausible villains with the right level of bitterness and loser-mentality: ukbapzis.
Which forces you to the next question: who was behind the ukbapzis? Did I read somewhere that someone had said something strange about someone being is Sy Ny?

There I quit speculating and go back to non-thinking. Let me visit cnn.com instead.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Nov 2015 01:29

passenger plane { on charter } belonging to a small Russian airline, which was flying over 220 people from an Egyptian resort, Sharm El-Sheikh to Saint Petersburg

still a bit of confusion around total and mix of casualties:

According to the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there were 214 Russian and three Ukrainian passengers aboard, including 138 women, 62 men and 17 children. { russian sources are reporting children casualties at 25 }

Airbus said the A321 involved in the crash was produced in 1997 and had logged around 55,772 flight hours. The plane had been operated by Metrojet since 2012.

According to the Metrojet, the Moscow-based airline was founded in 1993 and has nine planes which operate regular and charter flights.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Nov 2015 03:10

Egyptian security forces kill 25 militants during operation in Sinai Peninsula - Oct25, 2015 (a week prior to the airline crash)

AL-ARISH, Egypt, Oct. 25 (UPI) -- Egyptian security forces on Sunday said they killed at least 25 militants in the Sinai Peninsula, one day after gunmen killed a conservative parliamentary candidate living in the region.

Egypt's state-run MENA news agency said the casualties were a result of the past two days of the so-called Martyr's Right, a joint police and military operation launched in the peninsula in September.

Xinhua news agency reported police and soldiers dismantled 39 explosive devices, apprehended 15 suspected militants, and destroyed multiple explosives caches and at least seven tons of cannabis.

The development comes one day after Mostafa Abdelrahman, a conservative parliamentary candidate with the Salafist Nour party, was shot dead by motorcycle-riding gunmen outside his home in the North Sinai town of al-Arish. Militants in the town killed an Egyptian police commander Sept. 20 and a senior police officer earlier the same week.

Since the 2013 overthrow of former President Mohamed Morsi, Egypt has battled Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula, including the Islamic State-affiliated Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which has re-branded itself as the "Sinai Province."

On Sept. 15, nine days into Martyr's Right, Egyptian security forces said they killed 55 militants and lost two soldiers. The second phase of the operation began Oct. 7.

Daily News Egypt reported Thursday Egyptian soldiers and police killed 20 militants and arrested another 78 suspected jihadists during raids in the North Sinai towns of al-Arish, Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid, which have been the focus of the current operation.

Early July militant assaults in the town of Sheikh Zuweid killed dozens of Egyptian soldiers and police officers, and insurgent forces attacked security checkpoints in the town for weeks.

Since 2013, attacks by militants in the peninsula -- including a rocket strike on a naval vessel in July -- reportedly killed hundreds of Egyptian soldiers and police officers, prompting Egyptian President Abel-Fatah al-Sisi to say his country is "in a real state of war."

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Nov 2015 03:29

Chemical weapons in Syria: Who is guilty? - Oct 31, 2015

Against the background of many complex events occurring in the Middle East, the West continues to accuse the Syrian government on a regular basis of using chemical weapons against its own population.
And this is taking place in spite of the well-known fact that the process of chemical demilitarization of Syria has been actually completed, and all chemical weapons were removed from the country long ago.

It is worth mentioning in this regard that the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has admitted that only one percent of toxic substances removed from Syria remains to be destroyed at a commercial facility in the United States. As for the Syrian chemical weapons production facilities, it has been confirmed that 11 of the 12 sites have already been destroyed, and the remaining one is inaccessible to the government because of the current situation on the ground.

Despite this, our Western partners keep claiming that the Syrian government had initially submitted an incomplete declaration of the existing chemical weapons. However, they forget to mention that Damascus has agreed, as a gesture of goodwill, to establish a special OPCW mission for the verification of its initial declaration, although according to the Chemical Weapons Convention they were not obliged to do so. This mission is still working, and final conclusions have yet to be made.

There is a real concern that, according to available data, Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) has acquired access to technologies for chemical weapons production, the relevant documentation and production facilities. Reportedly, there have already been numerous chemical weapons attacks by IS militants in both Syria and Iraq. Moreover, there is evidence of them using not only chlorine but “real” chemical weapons – mustard gas and possibly lewisite, the production of which, by the way, requires rather sophisticated technologies.

In these circumstances, it is extremely important that the mandate of the OPCW Fact-Finding Mission in Syria investigating possible use of toxic chemicals be extended to the territory of Iraq. A few weeks ago the Russian side prepared and introduced a UNSC draft resolution for this matter. Unfortunately, despite our repeated and persistent attempts the Security Council so far has failed to respond to those facts, primarily because of the position of our Western partners. In this regard, one can only wonder about the logic of the West, which declares its willingness to combat Islamic State, but at the same time does not bother to raise a finger to prevent this group from developing and using prohibited weapons.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2015 03:33

The one question I would like to get an answer for is: Have there been consistent reports (across media and over time) of use of AA missiles in this area.

Seems to me that the plane had some mechanical problem, perhaps due to maintenance. And yahoos are taking credit - which is to be expected.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Nov 2015 04:18

For sometime now, major US airline companies have been complaining that they are unable to compete against middle eastern airlines. In recent times, middle eastern companies have eaten up share from their western competitors mainly due to their competitive advantage of access to cheap oil. Statements such as "we are competing not against other companies but against states" (words to the effect) have been made multiple times by US airline companies.

Aviation sector now contributes 11%-12% of Qatar's GDP and 6%-7% of UAE's.

With recent drop in crude oil prices, financials of major US airline companies have improved and is reflected in much better valuation of their stock prices.

All major sunni countries in the region (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, etc) are backing terrorists and do not shy away from publicly acknowledging the same.

If this crash is traced to terrorists (matter of time until it becomes an established fact) then middle eastern airline industry will be facing the risk of revenge. As these airlines originate from the same region and hence face same risks as was felt by metrojet or for that matter any airline that is not middle eastern in origin.

And IF such a scenario plays out, share switch back to US/western airlines is a certainty with added bonus of even lower crude prices. This transformation is akin to what US faced in smartphone/mobility industry when formidable foreign competition from Nokia, Blackberry, htc, Samsung, Sony have all gone kaput and now the entire industry is driven out of silicon valley by players like Apple, Google, Microsoft. Although this analogy may be questioned due to difference in dynamics but end result should be quite a parallel.

In order for the "risk" of revenge translate to reality, obviously, middle eastern airlines will need to be perceived as insecure which means one or more of their planes have to meet the same fate as that of metrojet. If those meet the same fate, Indians as major travelers on these airlines will face risk of getting in the crossfire. Also, if middle eastern airlines lose share and/or go out of business, then their domestic consumption of oil will take a hit putting further downward pressure on crude.

All in all, this is an event that has great upside potential for US airline companies.

Now, if this is how it *can* play in one of the ways, did those middle eastern countries thought thru all the attendant side affects of supporting terrorists that will eventually threaten their own industry and impact their economy? Is Russia, which is seeing its GDP shrinking thanks to western sanctions, willing to bring these terrorist supporters to senses and show them what is at stake and gain an understanding to end this conflict?

We will see in the coming days how all this will play out.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Nov 2015 04:44

After promising to end two wars, Obama may leave three behind - Oct31, 2015

Earlier this month, the president said he would keep 5,500 ground troops in Afghanistan to advise struggling Afghan army and to pursue the remnants of al-Qaeda. In Iraq and Syria, the president has incrementally boosted the U.S. force, beginning an initial deployment of several hundred troops to Iraq in 2014, after Iraqi army forces in Mosul were overrun by Islamic State fighters. The president sent 450 more American trainers and advisers after Iraqi forces were routed at Ramadi by a much smaller Islamic State force in the spring.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2015 04:51

Modi's gov is expected to ask ME airlines to share some of their profits - since the major reason the ME airlines are buying more planes is due to traffic from India.