rajpa wrote:
In fact at the time of the tactical attack, it is already war ...
This is exactly the point.
Pakistan's threat of using tactical nukes has appeared in the last 4-5 years after the Cold Start doctrine was discussed. By making this threat Pakistan seeks to avoid the possibility of anyone having to say "it is already war". If it is "already war" Pakistan will have to live up to its threat of using tac nukes and India will have to live up to its retaliation threat. The threat of using tactical nukes is to make Indians think (i.e have doubts, anxieties and hesitation) about whether we will really nuke the crap out of Pakistan if they use a few teensy weensy nukes on our armoured columns inside Pakistan.
When one looks at it in this way, it is a mind game. A mind game that is rhetorically asking India if it will wage a disastrous nuclear war simply on the provocation or a tactical nuke within Pakistani territory. I can state my view of the Indian response to this mind game in a few words- its very simple "
Yes we will nuke the crap out of Pakistan after a teensy weensy nuclear provocation". Why? Because if we do not make this threat and have doubts, it means that Pakistan can continue terror attacks and paralyse any response from India simply because we are scared that we will have to destroy them after a tiny tactical nuke provocation, with all the guilt and remorse that is supposed to go with it. Hence it makes logical sense to be absolutely and unshakably certain that we WILL nuke Pakistan out of existence if they use even a single tiny nuke. No one should even express doubts.
So far it is a mind game and this is the only way to play this mind game.
So how will we know who is "winning" this mind game
1. If horrendous Pakistani terror attacks continue and India does not make a satisfactory response - it means that India is scared of responding and that Pakistan is winning the mind game
2. If Pakistani terror attacks start drying up and serious provocations do not occur, India' mind game is beginning to prevail
We have to see where this goes. My personal guess is that Pakistan is dysfunctional enough to conduct one or more terror attempts - because winning the mind game and avoiding retaliation from India is also victory for them even if they get nothing more than more international opprobrium. But here things get a little hazy for me. I suspect that India is not sitting back on its haunches. I suspect that sooner or later India will be able to conduct some lightning strikes on Pakistani targets even before they can start mobilizing their Nasr and thinking about launching them. That would be deep humiliation for Pakistan and the only way they can avoid that is a pre planned coordinated terror attack with tactical missiles already in place ready for an Indian response. Currently, my feeling is that they wll not do this. I hope I am right though.