Deterrence

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Nov 2015 19:36

prasannasimha wrote:Massive retaliation.

OK

But I was looking for a more detailed - hour by hour response from the "international community" and India

As I see it if Pakistan's attack is at 3 PM on a Saturday, and India's massive response is at 9 PM the same day - the news of Pakistan's attack on Indian forces will not have been seen or heard across the world and after the Indian retaliation the only news will be the devastation of Pakistan by India. No one will bother about or believe that the first strike was by Pakistan.

I believe that retaliation needs to come after the news of Pakistan's first nuke is well known and seen around the world as images from the area.

Pakistan hopes that the "International community" will prevail upon India not to respond. What would be the "best move" for India in terms of timing of retaliation? What would happen if India did not retaliate - for whatever reason.

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 13 Nov 2015 20:04

If the Paki attack happens at 3PM Saturday and images from area splashed at 4PM, there will be a lot of pseudo hand wringing by western entities in the news block that follows that time in their respective local countries.

Western defense/strategic/geopolitical/even Oprah type experts will give panicky interviews raising the bogey of massive nuclear escalation and total annihilation of Pakjab, and the subsequent nuclear fallout for the regions surrounding it for centuries to come. Bottom-line they will push will be, India should be stopped at all costs, even if it means US boots on the ground. If India did not retaliate within 8 hours, there will be a contingent of the US elite commando force guarding the border against India (whichever was the one that just finished a joint exercise with our SSG, and the chuck noris commander was quoted in a followup interview that they should be the helpline who the Indian SSG calls to bail them out of a tough situations).

However, if Modi govt is in power. Our initial tank attack would be planned with a second strike massive retaliation on Pakjab within 3 hours - just so that satellite imagery of paki first strike can be flashed within that 3 hr window. after our first news flash of this satellite images there will be a total information blackout from our side for 72hrs whence our cold start kicks in and takes back POK and more, while decimating Pakjab to dust.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 13 Nov 2015 20:29

Agree, the reply cannot wait. The headlines should say Pakis starts war /attacks India with small TNW and India responds massively by taking out big Pakistan centers. No time for anyone to respond and the response was in different geographic area then pakis TNW morally high counties will be in no position to object

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Nov 2015 20:53

OK let us say that Pakistan nukes Indian forces at 3 PM and India retaliates massively by 6 PM taking out 50 cities, towns and major bases in Pakistan. The war ends.

What would be the news the next day given that even a first strike by Pakistan was expected to be met with hand-wringing and US pressure and US boots on the ground in shitland (IMO a useless exercise) in less than 12 hours?

In my view no one will even know that Pakistan conducted a first strike. Not even the US. In fact it will be 12 hours before the world gets to know that there has been some massive calamity in Pakistan and unless India announces its retaliation no one will know exactly what has happened and everyone will await confirmation.

I will state my viewpoint here. The Indian promise of massive retaliation has to be immune to international pressure, or else no point having any nuclear doctrine if doubts exist in that regard. I do not for one minute believe that the US or anyone else can simply bring in forces into Pakistan to stop an Indian retaliation (given the current forces and technology) in that time period. Please let us not give the US God like powers that we always assume. In other words:
1. India will retaliate
2. It need not retaliate in 3 hours. India can wait for news of the Pakistani strike to spread around the world by giving it wide publicity - i.e - give it 8-12 hours. Launch 10 nukes after that. Make an announcement that retaliation has started. Follow in 2-3 hours with another 50 nukes. Retaliation should be complete within 24 hours

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 13 Nov 2015 21:32

I think with the news of one Pakistan warhead being launched being recorded and flashed, the Indian warheads will have already been launched to glassify . it will be too late to stop by that time

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 13 Nov 2015 21:39

1. I don't know why else the US are conducting joint exercise with our troops, unless they want to be able to contain us in future. Given that we have no common enemies. Plus, there are US boots on Paki soil anyways.

2. Will China not be quick to know/or be informed by paki biraders, and want to get in on the action if we take 12 hrs to retaliate?

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 13 Nov 2015 21:42

1500 hrs IST, Saturday: Immediately Indian government readies N weapons in keeping with stated policy. We get about 1 h before world community starts calling up, Security Council.

1600 hrs IST, Saturday: 1) We inform all world leaders that our N deterrent at sea is determined for 2nd strike. Any country coming to aid P will get clobbered. We keep announcing publicly that we are going to retaliate. Privately we pass message, that any single attack more, we totally annihilate P with nuclear weapons. The only thing preventing us from N attacks is if we are allowed to destroy P conventionally to secure ourselves. Don't interfere, let us sort out P ourselves over the next 72 hrs. If you want to avoid nuclear war, ensure that P generals don't do anything else. Not even use TNW's on Indian forces. We climb down in 2hrs from a nuclear attack to a conventional attack, sell the idea that any rogue nation that uses N weapons has no right to exist, ask for Sindh, Kashmir and fertile parts of Pakjab as price of stopping. It will need P forces to vacate these parts. 2) By this time get the diaspora, embassies and agencies everywhere into full action mode. Get the message out of the world's biggest democracy under attack by a rogue nation.3) Start clobbering P with everything we got.Establish air dominance over P by 3hrs, destroy all airports (even civilian) in next 3 hrs. Ensure that P generals cannot escape. This phase is critical, because the international community will only side with us if they believe that we have a fait acomplii- dismemberement of P with overwhelming conventional superiority.

1900 hrs IST, Saturday:Hurt their forces ability to transport troops into Balochistan, take out road communication, troop concentrations, even police stations. Communicate to Baloch that we will support any independence movement by them. Start clobbering road networks into PoK. Get a breather for forces from 2200 hrs to 0200 hrs. Through the night attack military centers in and around Pakjab cities with half hourly missile attacks to terrorize them. Press on with any land attacks. Keep them off balance.

0200hrs, IST to 0400 hrs IST, Sunday: Clobber PoK with all we got. Destroy SAM's troop concentrations.

0400 hrs IST to 0600 hrs IST, Sunday: Cross LOC wherever possible on land. Airdrop 10K forces into securing area around Wullar lake, Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, and PoK.

http://mondediplo.com/IMG/arton2026.jpg

The aerial bombing and continued attacks should be focused on preventing bringing up troops from western flank. Need to cut off
all northbound traffic along N 55, N 80, M1. Instead encourage people from PoK and Northern Areas to seek refuge in main Pakistan. PoK and NA will have a population of 4.5 mn to 5 mn. Ensure that they vacate.

http://www.daleelteq.com.pk/images/maps ... kistan.jpg

0600 hrs to 1800 hrs, Sunday: establish hold over PoK areas. Backup airborne with ground based troops. If a second flank through northern Pakjab can be opened to resupply it would be great as geography is against us in this area. Meanwhile steer talks in international community to accept the fact that the price of using nuclear weapons will be territorial dismemberment. Use everyone, even EJ's with the prospect of reclaiming souls from a former Malsi land. We have to dominate international discourse and news.

1800 hrs IST Sunday to 1200 hrs IST Monday: Move onto Phase 2, upto border of Karakoram highway, Skardu and all. Air and missile attacks followed by airdrop followed by ground offensive.

1500 hrs IST, Monday: Present world with new map. Assure Xhin that traffic through K2 road won't be disturbd, but no more direct contact with P.

Going forward next three months: Get world attention with an honorable repatriation policy (pay some money to each family who is emigrating south. Bachelors, kick out. Make focus of securing area, build connectivity to rest of India through highways in long run. Promise free land to people to populate this area.

End Game: Use fig leaf of nuclear attack to dismember P. Take back PoK and NA as price. Not for sake of ego, but for the water and for reach towards C. Asia and cutting off C/P link.

End Game Alternatives: 1) Third TNW on Indian assets in P, nuclear annihilation of P. First N attack on Indian soil, N annihilation of P.2) Delays in breakthroughs in PoK beyond 48 hrs, settle for at least PoK.

Of course this depends on a lot of assumptions:
a. Overwhelming air superiority (AWAC killers, Tankers, PGM in thousands, ALCM's in a couple of thousand). Being able to fight a high intensity war for three days.
b. Being able to airdrop 20K+ troops, sustain for weeks with airdrops (Massive airlift capability).
c. Stocks of CM's in 5 K range. Airports, stretches of roads, power plants, troop HQ's, bridges, any place where our troops in PoK get stuck needs to be clobbered.
d. We have a credible nuclear deterrent with TN capability to deter C

That was a long rambling post, lot of jingo wet dreams. My 2 np

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 13 Nov 2015 21:57

Lost my post

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 13 Nov 2015 22:06

shiv wrote:
In my view no one will even know that Pakistan conducted a first strike. Not even the US.

In my view, the world wil try not try to believe the news, as it would be green lighting killing millions. They will not want to live with the "guilt". Pak will also deny using the nuke and say India wants to destroy Pak cities.
Once India announced Pak nuke attack the objective of the world (US, Russia) will be to prevent India retailiation. US may not be able to put boots in Pak, but it's naval BMD batteries will blunt our missile attacks.

Pak nukes are threat for US as well. I would be surprised if US already does not assests (ship + sub) on 24/7 in the arabian sea.

My opionion. India nuke Pak position near the border( take it in a truck). Announce Pak has used nukes and there were massive India casualities. India will retaliate within 10 hours if world does not gaurantee de-nuking Pak. If they do good for us, if not we glassify the place as our plans. Either ways we win.

Chemicals were used in Syria. The world is still debating which side used it.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Nov 2015 22:14

nit wrote:
shiv wrote:My opionion. India nuke Pak position near the border( take it in a truck). Announce Pak has used nukes and there were massive India casualities. India will retaliate within 10 hours if world does not gaurantee de-nuking Pak. If they do good for us, if not we glassify the place as our plans. Either ways we win.Chemicals were used in Syria. The world is still debating which side used it.

India , not the world , have to be the decision maker on this point. world opinion is irrelevant in fighting survival war.Once India "retaliate" in case of Mumbai style attack , world will know that responsibility of initiating Nuke war rest with Pakistan for creating the situation.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 13 Nov 2015 22:17

Stratospheric nuke explosion cause a gamma ray burst like thing which is monitored by every spy satellite of every nation you can think of.

Even a sub kiloton nuke would create a massive gamma ray flash. The world would know in a couple of minutes.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 13 Nov 2015 22:18

I have been following Syrian crisis in some detail. The thing with the scenarios being painted is that they are giving too much time for news to come out. From the battlezone to the internet is very quick - as less as an hour for videos and almost immediately for twitter. A nuke explosion will go viral before the people in India convene a meeting to discuss the attack (IMVHO).

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 13 Nov 2015 22:21

Jhujar wrote:
India , not the world , have to be the decision maker on this point. world opinion is irrelevant in fighting survival war.Once India "retaliate" in case of Mumbai style attack , world will know that responsibility of initiating Nuke war rest with Pakistan for creating the situation.

Absolutely.

We nuke first and blame it on Pak.

it is a game of bluff anyway.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 13 Nov 2015 22:22

Deejayji,

I agree.. We will have a few minutes to respond. There are enough object tracking satellites to figure out the trajectory of the first nuke attack.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 13 Nov 2015 22:30

No warning shorning like some members suggest we have to be as mad as you can be and the weapons should would fly that is our basis of our deterrence even after being bombed you don't respond that is as good as not having the bomb and betray the whole nation.

Now a din news flows rapidly at the max we will have 3-5 hour window to respond then once we have responded, to me press release does not matter at this point. Desh will have to be prepared for more attack(s), attacks from others and or achieving our objectives under this mayhem. I don't care what gets printed in BbC or nyt

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 13 Nov 2015 22:33

Maybe we should have a protocol that sets into motion once a nuje attack is in place. It should be an automatic distributed protocol for response with no "button" involved, at least in case of Bakis.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 14 Nov 2015 00:00

When we are saying that we are using a no first use policy then the whole point of secondary deterrence is that we will use massive retaliation in case even if a theater weapon is going to be used.That is the cornerstone of secondary detterance. If.If we are not in a position to carry out that threat then it is not deterrence.
Honestly most of the other countries would be silently happy that glassification is going on- the US-it gets a thorn out of its side.Even China- for all its positioning it knows it is playing with fire supporting Pakistan as that very country foments trouble via its peaceful population in some areas of China.
The real timing and distribution of attacks would be based on how the nuclear fallout would distribute.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 14 Nov 2015 00:20

I still do not believe that we would be able to get away with it. Yes, the only response to a TNW is massive retaliation. But if we can keep away from using N weapons, then we have the world community from attacking us, and maybe we can get away with breaking Pakistan and still taking over POK and NA with its water resources.

Once we have that, let's starve them to death with water denial and constant attacks. A little like what the Americans did to Japan and Germany post WW2

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 14 Nov 2015 00:56

When cold start is given a go, our nukes will be electronically mated. Retaliation will be finished in 20-30 minutes. Possibly less than 1 hr after a strike which will never happen. Waiting 2-3 hours isn't a realistic scenario given that PA will flush their bombers and authorize launch of their primary strike assets as soon as a nuke goes off over our armored columns. The idea of Pakistan dominating India at every rung of the escalation ladder is simply ridiculous. For India there is no ladder.

At the end of the day the nukes are simply meant to preserve the overall integrity of the state from forces within. They're useless as far as deterrence wrt to India.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Nov 2015 05:27

I would leave out all talk of US interference in such a war because if several reasons:
1. The US is automatically accorded "umpire power" to take the war in a particular direction. We tend to use the US as "Joker in the pack" to do anything rather than think about what might be happening if the US does not enter.
2. Arguments about US capability and incapability simply go on to levels where the entire discussion shifts to what the US can do or will do and how no one really has a chance to do anything else unless Russia/China enter and a further diversion to why they would not enter
3. It is always simpler to stick to a two party simulation and game that out fully before adding complexities as to when and how the US or China will enter - which simply allow people to "introduce" a complicating factor at a time and place where their own mental scenario of war makes it convenient for them to do that. "I say US lobs a nuke. You say you lob a nuke on US. I say US knocks you out. You say no China then lobs a nuke on something" - this is a pointless cooking up of incredibly complex scenarios
4. The US is on record officially and unofficially saying that they are not going to enthusiastically jump in and join someone else's nuclear war and the US is not stupid in saying that. Because once India and Pakistan are over and done with the US will have to live with the consequences of entering someone's else's war as the world order changes
5. Exactly how the world order will change after such a war is a separate discussion and it simply detracts from an India Pakistan scenario.

I would simply game out all the possibilities of a bilateral India-Pakistan scenario without adding that extra masala/worry/convenient game changer of "US will do this/US will do that" K.I.S.S. in other words

Once that is done the next level would be to see what the US or Russia or China could do and how they might interefere at different stages. Simply bringing them in when one feels like it only increases the complexity and detracts from gaming out all possibilities without such external involvement.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Nov 2015 05:48

RoyG wrote: Waiting 2-3 hours isn't a realistic scenario given that PA will flush their bombers and authorize launch of their primary strike assets as soon as a nuke goes off over our armored columns

This is an excellent point and is the strongest argument against Pakistan's incredibly stupid "escalation ladder" using small piddly nukes on Indian forces.

The point is that is Pakistan is going to use piddly nukes and then be ready for a massive retaliation why are they going through the drama of saying they will use small nukes first. they might as well start the nuclear devastation right off and face destruction

What TNW shows is that Pakistanis are rational and do not want to be destroyed. They want to try and get away from total destruction by "chancing it" with a theatre/piddly nuke hoping that "international pressure" will stop India from retaliating.The entire idea of India's "massive retaliation" is not to give the Pakistanis any mental relief that things might go favourably if they risked a teensy weensy nuke on Indian forces within their own territory. They get no choice. They get nuked.

Having said that I think retaliation in 2-3 hours is unrealistic. I firmly believe it is not going to happen. I am willing to discuss in detail how long it might take to confirm that Pakistan has used a nuke and how long the decision making apparatus will take. But I am arbitrarily saying that retaliation will take at least one day for various reasons. The argument that this is "too long" becomes valid only if Pakistan lobs a small nuke and does not wait. Unfortunately Pakistan has to wait after lobbing a small nuke to see what India or the international community do. If they are not going to wait, this whole idea of small piddly nuke is a pointless waste of nuclear material because small bombs use up a lot of fissile material for a very small blast. By lobbing a small nuke Pakistan knows that there has to be a delay of several hours or maybe a day before India retaliates and Pakis hope that this delay gives a chance for international pressure to work or for Indian leaders to back out.

What this means in essence is that India needs to find a mechanism of putting its nuclear forces on hair trigger alert if we are going to retaliate against Pakistan. Cold start is one thing, but cold start must be backed with hot Pu.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 14 Nov 2015 08:03

shiv wrote: Imagine that Pakistan launches a tactical nuclear strike at an attacking Indian tank force that has entered Pakistan in response to a terrible terrorist attack. Imagine that news of this nuclear strike - that has taken out maybe 10 tanks and 150 men has hit the airwaves and is being reported across the world as breaking news.

India has not yet done anything. It is just hours after the attack. (This is a totally theoretical scenario - as if Intel would not have noticed the mobilization/deployment of Paki missile forces and readied Indian forces for retaliation)

What would happen then?

Operational plans of the SFC will be put into motion. What do these plans call for? They call for a response to adhere to India's stated doctrine. These response plans have been rehearsed well and some have been part of gaming scenarios and the contours known. If not stopped or altered by the apex in the NCA, I am sure that is what will happen.

As to how long would it take for India to respond? That depends. Based on the above scenario, we already have armor inside pakistan territory and presumably in a full scale war. If it is the case, then it would be safe to presume that we have our nuclear assets ready to go as soon as NCA authorization is in place. I do not think, the time lag will be much once this authorization is in place (it is in XX minutes). Any time lag will be between an assessment of the event by our forces, its confirmation and then it is up to the readiness and preparation of the NCA body to have been ready for such an event BEFORE the start of hostilities. It is this preparation or lack thereof is where the biggest time lag may happen. I know that the NCA is prepped for such exercises too, right up the chain of command and it would highly unlikely that they are not sensitized to such an eventuality at time of war. So I feel a lag if any is only for its detection, assessment and confirmation. ANY other extraneous factors being considered DURING the hostilities would be fool hardy.

The scenario of course envisions a breakdown of deterrence and to a degree a failure of our deterrence postures. Also, was surprised at the number of people, who weigh in US opinions on the matter so seriously. But, do not think, deterrence would break down so easily but yes, I will grant one thing to Pakistan, their nuclear umbrella has laid waste to Indian plans for an armored thrust centric warfare ,nullifying our conventional superiority. Our projection of force and war prosecution plans have to move to other forces than armor.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 14 Nov 2015 08:15

There was a question posed on massive retaliation to Bharat Karnad at his book launch event, the question starts at time 18:30 in the discussion part of the event (clip 7). Those interested can see the answers, but there are two questions there so the answer is a little later to the first question asked.

Clip 7 Discussion

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 14 Nov 2015 19:48

Watch from 9:17 onwards the response of indian ambassador this is relevant to discussion we are having, Masa is and will be important player in this unless the exchange has less time window for anyone to act :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwPjxJs_FDg

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Nov 2015 20:22

krishna_krishna wrote:Watch from 9:17 onwards the response of indian ambassador this is relevant to discussion we are having, Masa is and will be important player in this unless the exchange has less time window for anyone to act :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwPjxJs_FDg

Massa can do exactly nothing if Pakistan strikes. Massa has no control on Pakistan. No point imagining that the US will wait until something happens first and then show great heroism to save the day like Superman. If they had the power they would have done something before anything happened - like yesterday. But Massa is 90% hot air when it comes to any worthwhile action in stopping Pakistan from taking the risky path it is taking. That unknown US general who appears soon after 9:17 is a blithering nincompoop who is exaggerating and doing an equalequal saying India and Pakistan BOTH "rattled their weapons". Typical American blather.

If India had no nuclear weapons and was cowed down by Pakistani threats massa would not be worried about it at all. The worry is only because India may nuke the shit out of Pakistan after a provocation by Pakistan. What Clinton says later on is exactly what i have been saying - i.e. the US is worried about how other nations would see the idea of using nukes after an India Pakistan war. That is as good a way of saying that the US would in no way enter a war between India and Pakistan because of the effect that it would have on non nuclear states. But they can't control Pakistan. They try and control India. And they won't.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 14 Nov 2015 20:28

ramana wrote:SSridhar, I agree Pakistan is the key.
Question is what deterrent policy is suitable for Pakistan?

anyone can participate.

If India really is looking for a solution, follow the Russians, they have shown the way. Keep conventional expense to a minimum, and max out strategic weapons. Produce 10-15 agni 6 per month, develop adequate mirvs...would probably be cheaper than buying zillions worth of rafales anyway.

Idea is simple: in event of war with tsp over a terrorist attack, escalation has to be systematic, but it has to be there. First response, precision strikes on a couple of targets. Why do armored thrust at all,?Await tsp response. Await international interference asking bakis to backoff.at this point.

They can either go conventional or nuclear. If they mobilize conventionally, cold start goes into action, if they attempt nuclear, India responds immediately and fully. This is THE deal, take it or leave it.

Presence of 100s of agnis ensures adventurism by others is a non starter. Just make it clear that any adventure will lead to MAD, no two ways..even if it is some conventional interference. No power which has a promising economy will run interference. This is how the russkis did it post fsu breakup, and it has worked.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 14 Nov 2015 20:53

Cain Marko wrote:
ramana wrote:SSridhar, I agree Pakistan is the key.
Question is what deterrent policy is suitable for Pakistan?

anyone can participate.
If India really is looking for a solution, follow the Russians, they have shown the way. Keep conventional expense to a minimum, and max out strategic weapons. Produce 10-15 agni 6 per month, develop adequate mirvs...would probably be cheaper than buying zillions worth of rafales anyway.

Idea is simple: in event of war with tsp over a terrorist attack, escalation has to be systematic, but it has to be there. First response, precision strikes on a couple of targets. Why do armored thrust at all,?Await tsp response. Await international interference asking bakis to backoff.at this point.

They can either go conventional or nuclear. If they mobilize conventionally, cold start goes into action, if they attempt nuclear, India responds immediately and fully. This is THE deal, take it or leave it.

Presence of 100s of agnis ensures adventurism by others is a non starter. Just make it clear that any adventure will lead to MAD, no two ways..even if it is some conventional interference. No power which has a promising economy will run interference. This is how the russkis did it post fsu breakup, and it has worked.

Cain I am not qualified to answer this, but the NFU will have to be junked if your policy is to be adopted because of the overwhelming Chinese force levels against India, which is similar to the nato situation where there was a Warsaw pact superiority in numbers and deployment back in the 1970's/80's. In many ways 'cold start', and the tnw discussion are way points along this road.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 14 Nov 2015 21:02

shiv wrote:But they can't control Pakistan. They try and control India. And they won't.

+1. Folks who have read our doctrine, studied our postures and structures, capabilities and practices and articulations by those who know it and are aware of the actual sequence of events of the past, such as in Kargil or Parakram will never make such a statement that the US will be an important player, when the balloon goes up. The entire TNW game of Pakistan is not to threaten India but to draw the US in. It is a classic case of negotiating with a gun to one's own head. While it is abundantly clear that when the balloon goes up, it will only the Indian soldier on the line. Clinton's laugh at the very beginning is a give away, which he clearly states later that there is no way the US will intervene.

Why do folks forget the resolve of Indians to fight with whatever we have. Why do we forget 1971, when we did not flinch at the news of the nuclear missile carrying CBG entering the bay of bengal in 1971. We did not have any nukes then and that was the height of the cold war. People are confused between our lack of coordinated response to unconventional attacks, conventional war and nuclear war. Three different things. Pakistan's attempt at counter force use is a subterfuge. This is not how nuclear war is fought, do not fall for it.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 14 Nov 2015 21:09

rgosain wrote: Cain I am not qualified to answer this, but the NFU will have to be junked if your policy is to be adopted because of the overwhelming Chinese force levels against India, which is similar to the nato situation where there was a Warsaw pact superiority in numbers and deployment back in the 1970's/80's. In many ways 'cold start', and the tnw discussion are way points along this road.

This is another canard that needs to be nubbed. On the Tibetan border, who is the hunter and who is the hunted is an interesting question with no clear answers. India's military stance has moved from passive to active defense on the China front. What it means is most of our new investments will be towards this front, such as the mountain strike core, over 2/3rds of Akash deployment is on the China front. If India continues to invest in its military at a reasonable pace, our conventional forces ARE and would be more than enough to deter Chinese conventional forces. While China enjoys an overall edge and will likely enjoy such an edge, will China ever want a massive and total war with India and what for?

There is NO need to bring in the nuclear dimension in an indo-china conflict. Neither China nor India desire the end of each other. This is a geo-political and balance of power issue not an existential issue, which is what nuclear weapons are for. THEY ARE NOT FOR WAR FIGHTING.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Nov 2015 21:21

ShauryaT wrote:
shiv wrote:But they can't control Pakistan. They try and control India. And they won't.
+1. Folks who have read our doctrine, studied our postures and structures, capabilities and practices and articulations by those who know it and are aware of the actual sequence of events of the past, such as in Kargil or Parakram will never make such a statement that the US will be an important player, when the balloon goes up. The entire TNW game of Pakistan is not to threaten India but to draw the US in. It is a classic case of negotiating with a gun to one's own head. While it is abundantly clear that when the balloon goes up, it will only the Indian soldier on the line. Clinton's laugh at the very beginning is a give away, which he clearly states later that there is no way the US will intervene.

Why do folks forget the resolve of Indians to fight with whatever we have. Why do we forget 1971, when we did not flinch at the news of the nuclear missile carrying CBG entering the bay of bengal in 1971. We did not have any nukes then and that was the height of the cold war. People are confused between our lack of coordinated response to unconventional attacks, conventional war and nuclear war. Three different things. Pakistan's attempt at counter force use is a subterfuge. This is not how nuclear war is fought, do not fall for it.

The "aura of America" hangs heavy on Indian minds - which is what makes "massa" such an appropriate word for us to call the US. At every step there is a belief that an answer lies with America that everyone will (be forced to) abide by. Pakistan has always sworn by this and as you rightly say they act as if America will bail them out if they threaten to or even use a tiny nuke. But even Pakistan does not listen to the US - its actions vis a vis India are simply to "pull America in" They "pulled America in" time and again on some pretext about cold war or war against terror. They want the US to handle India while they do what they like. India will not be handled by the US. In fact it is the US that gets handled by Pakistan - but that has never gone as far as US fighting war for Pakistan and it certainly will not mean American nukes or ABMs to save Pakistan. They will not be able to save Pakistan if the balloon goes up.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 14 Nov 2015 23:01

rgosain wrote:Cain I am not qualified to answer this, but the NFU will have to be junked if your policy is to be adopted because of the overwhelming Chinese force levels against India, which is similar to the nato situation where there was a Warsaw pact superiority in numbers and deployment back in the 1970's/80's. In many ways 'cold start', and the tnw discussion are way points along this road.

RG, why? NFU is fine. your estimation of Chinese superiority is inflated imho. Conventionally at least, at any rate the Chinese posture is more US oriented. Nuke wise, I think India has plenty. time for the powers that be to let out some informal statements about the numbers. In the case that the disparity in nukes is very high, it is precisely for such reasons that I suggested a focus on more strategic "goods". An Agni costs about $ 8 million, mated with an MIRV, perhaps the price doubles, but even so India could afford these in the 100s. WIth such large numbers, MIRVs might not even be necessary. Just occasional off the cuff remarks by the right people could get the message across. The message is simple:

We will take care of TSP, intervene at your own peril.

China is samajhdar aur samajhdar ko ishara kafi hota hai. The only way China will risk war with India is through its proxy, it is unlikely to go for aar paar ki ladai unless it is feeling the pain from the US on its eastern seaboard and soosai is a viable choice. The only glitch in this is in the unlikely event that TSP does decide in favor of nuclear suicide (very, very unlikely given how precious their own lives are to jarnails in Pindi). But if such an even does come to pass, adequate measures should be available through satelites, and recon assets to catch TSP missile build up, and in the event of launch, adequate ABM cover (S400 purchase is in the right direction) is required. The response in such an event would be unfortunate but total and complete, no second chance whatever. However, some cleverness might be required in that weather patterns should not make the Punjab, Rajasthan and other border states inhabitable.

But I'm counting on TSP leadership realizing that there is no escape for them - not ever. History has shown us that TSP leadership has always been yellow and brown. Agay sey gila aur pichey se pila. And that in itself is the biggest deterrence.

The whole point is that India needs to seize the initiative in this game, and you do this by the first escalation - small though it might be. If TSP does not take it further in fear of greater retaliation (stick) from India and due to sops thrown in by the US (carrots), we have a credible policy to handle TSP terrorism for the foreseeable future. Every time there is terror attack, limited but adequate jhapad should be on the cards. After a while it becomes institutionalized in their minds and international polity as well. Much like Israel - nobody truly cares when it decides to suddenly bulldoze its way into the Golan Heights or has some F-16s do their thing.

In the meanwhile, other goals of free Baluchistan, Sindh et al should be pursued.

williams · Post by **williams** » 14 Nov 2015 23:15

Reading through the last few posts, I am still not clear if the Chinese will not intervene. If Indian chooses to respond conventionally, China could quickly open new fronts in the North and the East. If India chooses to respond with nuclear weapons, will the Chinese keep quiet? We need to think through this a bit more. We should have a good response when both the Chinese and Pakis act in one accord and the world simply sleeps on it.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 14 Nov 2015 23:24

Act with TSP as you wish, with China just keep displaying some paalished shiny Agnis every now and again. If India is at war with TSP, China should know...the response will NOT be conventional...whether they open a conventional front or a small incursion or go all out, India will respond with Agni. This should be clear. And there shall come a rain of fire and fire will reign supreme.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Nov 2015 23:43

Cain Marko wrote:Act with TSP as you wish, with China just keep displaying some paalished shiny Agnis every now and again. If India is at war with TSP, China should know...the response will NOT be conventional...whether they open a conventional front or a small incursion or go all out, India will respond with Agni. This should be clear. And there shall come a rain of fire and fire will reign supreme.

Q is, will China risk its own annihilation for Paki Munni sake ? It will be so stupid that they will want to go back 100 years just to protect an old Le'whore and say good bye to their present prosperity. Agnified crazy attitude to go boom will indeed give them pause before they make the mortal mistake.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 14 Nov 2015 23:54

I am trying to tip toe around this discussion because I am not qualified in deterrence strategy but based on a few data-points, Pakistan may feel confident about brandishing its TNW. Why is this. Results from the Korean tests should be looked at more judiciously. Couple this with the PRc procilivity to transfer key technologies such as Babur or Nasr or whole systems to the Pakistan military and the following picture doesn't seem so far-fetched:

a) PRC controls the escalation chain on India's western border
b) Pakistan is more confident that the USA will intervene on its side
c) india will have to tolerate a few more Mumbais

Going the Cain Marko way is the way to side-step this dilemma, especially if PRC continues to block India at the NSG.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 15 Nov 2015 00:41

For 2 front war, Pakistan needs to be broken up as a default action - for scheming to force attacks on many fronts.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Nov 2015 05:06

williams wrote:Reading through the last few posts, I am still not clear if the Chinese will not intervene. If Indian chooses to respond conventionally, China could quickly open new fronts in the North and the East. If India chooses to respond with nuclear weapons, will the Chinese keep quiet? We need to think through this a bit more. We should have a good response when both the Chinese and Pakis act in one accord and the world simply sleeps on it.

Quite apart from the fact that China never did that when Shitistan wanted them to do that in 65 and 71, such an act would be deeply detrimental to China.

I think there are two assumptions that are constantly being quoted as "accepted knowledge" which need to be looked at in some detail
1. I have already referred to this - i.e the assumption that the US has some special powers that will magically make others comply if they join
2. If China enters India is finished.

If India is attacking Pakistan we will either conduct punitive raids or make a quick inroad and not give Pakis or Chinese too much time to think. If Pakis use a nuke - they will be nuked back. If China enters this they will be sure to get nuked.

if China enters before nuclear war occurs - there is no guarantee that they will not end up losing territory - add to that a risk of provoking India to break its NFU promise because we are being attacked by two nations.

If we stick to assumptions like "Indians are cowardly", "US is omnipotent"; "China will always win" etc then this discussion need not take place at all.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Nov 2015 05:13

rgosain wrote: a) PRC controls the escalation chain on India's western border
b) Pakistan is more confident that the USA will intervene on its side
c) india will have to tolerate a few more Mumbais

1.Escalation chain? Where did that expression come from? As far as India is concerned it is a binary 0 or 1. No "escalation chain" to be controlled by anyone excepts in the minds of Pakis and, if you want, China.

2. USA will intervene and do what? Play pocket billiards?

3. "Tolerating a few more Mumbais" is definitely an option that we have - but we must have at least one more Mumbai to see if there is #Tolerance or #Intolerance.

Why do we always introduce US or China worrying that they hold cards that we must be afraid of when there is no evidence whatsoever that they hold such cards? We only constrain our ability to look at issues free from the worry that China or US will so some magical things that we need to constantly worry about. If it comes to nuclear war both those countries will stay out.

As regards prevention of nuclear war - it is up to them to try and reason with Pakistan. Neither of them has even put up a pretence of being able to control Pakistan. Only Indians insist that they can and tie themselves up in knots.

The opposite end of the spectrum - "Preventing nuclear war by telling India not to irritate Pakistan" is simply not happening. Even the most ignorant BRFite should know that India's existence irritates Pakistan and India is never going to stop aggravating Pakistan. And the US and China, who can't control Afghanistan or Vietnam or Pakistan are hardly going to control India.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 15 Nov 2015 06:19

Shivji,

The SPD isn't stupid and knows that an escalation ladder doesn't exist once TNW are used. They won't wait for a nuclear authorization order from the PMO to the SFC. They will degranulate like a mast cell. This is why it will take less than 2-3 hours. It's not possible for a nuke to be used without the PA knowing about it.

Perhaps it may be better to analyze the real reason behind TNW deployment. I think it has more to do with keeping the provinces together with minimal fallout in the event of a breakdown of relations with Punjab +/- cold start. Majority of Balochistan and Sindh are villages and towns. TNW are ideal and give the PA deployment flexibility.

If you really think about it, they haven't hit at India's overt options but our covert ones. These weapons are meant to hold their own people hostage. In a sense, the PA is pointing a gun at itself. Just not at its head.

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 15 Nov 2015 08:01

say its just India and TSP for now, here are the first contact scenarios with cold start,

1) Even as the Indian armored columns are approaching border, the Pakis raise shrill voices and probably use tactical nuke in the vicinity but within their political boundary

2) Same as above but this time we track their TEL movement and before they get to fire a warning shot we destroy it

3) We crossed the border, the above scenarios can be repeated

The question is how to establish that a nuke attack happened or was attempted when there are no casualties since they are only warning shots in remote areas? world community will be asking us to de-escalate and all the phony promises of prosecuting the terrorists follow.

if they escalate from this point on, sure massive retaliation logic follows. Here Bharat Karnads talk had a couple of points that I want to highlight,

With the massive retaliation argument, the credibility is lost and hence pokes a dent into the deterrence

Then Indian state's 'Will of Security' vs. 'Will of power', we primarily focus on the former such that when a Kargil happens, the response is overwhelming while projection of power lets say on PoK which is minimally ambitious doesn't rally us as much