The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Sathish_A · Post by **Sathish_A** » 24 Nov 2015 19:12

TOW strike on RuAF Heli

I presume the pilot is dead. The SAR crew were lucky and rescued later.

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Nov 2015 19:16

Ilias Siakantaris ‏@iliassiak 4h4 hours ago
Ilias Siakantaris Retweeted Hurriyet Daily News

Ιf Greece had downed every Turkish aircraft for THAT level of airspace violation,
today Turkey would only fly kites.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 24 Nov 2015 19:18

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ ... h-century/

However, I suspect neither Moscow nor, at the very least, the other European NATO powers will want to let this go too far. Russia cannot fight hot diplomatic wars on too many fronts, and Europe clearly wants Moscow to be part of the solution in Syria and maybe Ukraine, too. And, frankly, there is in many capitals concern about Turkey, its agenda and its role in the region. Much will depend on where Washington falls, of course, but if Moscow can get even a crumb of contrition from Ankara or sympathy from Europe, then we can expect this to be splashed on Russian TV and allow the Kremlin to let this slide a little.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Nov 2015 19:23

how are Turkish relations with Armenia these days?
other than pkk are there other separatist movements and fault lines?

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Nov 2015 19:24

A_Gupta wrote:https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ ... h-century/

However, I suspect neither Moscow nor, at the very least, the other European NATO powers will want to let this go too far. Russia cannot fight hot diplomatic wars on too many fronts, ...

but if Moscow can get even a crumb of contrition from Ankara or sympathy from Europe, then we can expect this to be splashed on Russian TV and allow the Kremlin to let this slide a little.

Kremlin can really slide then and can retain same image as that of Manmohan Singh. Forget of being world power and strategic player in mid-east.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 24 Nov 2015 19:28

Sathish_A wrote:TOW strike on RuAF Heli

I presume the pilot is dead. The SAR crew were lucky and rescued later.

Is that a German origin TOW?

girish.r · Post by **girish.r** » 24 Nov 2015 19:31

abhik wrote:
Sathish_A wrote:TOW strike on RuAF Heli

I presume the pilot is dead. The SAR crew were lucky and rescued later.

Is that a German origin TOW?

Exactly my thoughts.. Seemed like a german made weapon.

Sathish_A · Post by **Sathish_A** » 24 Nov 2015 19:35

The marking for testing are in English, definitely not German.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 24 Nov 2015 19:39

Russia will shoot down Turkish planes the next time they are up to bomb Kurds. That means the Kurds can cross the Euphrates and cut off Turkey from its terrorist brothers. Unless the Turks attempt a bloodier ground operation which might end up being bombed by Russians too.

Good for the Kurds.
Good for Armenia.
Good for Greece.

Erdogan has acted silly. Might have chewed off too much.

On the other hand, Russia cannot let this go unpunished. Next, Ukraine or the baltic states will do the same if Russia acts or looks weak.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Nov 2015 19:40

Russian Su-24 pilots shot dead while parachuting over Syria - Turkmen militia

https://www.rt.com/news/323281-russian- ... d-turkmen/

who are turkmen militia ?

vina · Post by **vina** » 24 Nov 2015 19:40

Particularly since Turkey has NATO protection

I doubt it. Turkey has seriously overplayed it's hand. None of the other NATO members have any stomach for a fight with Russia on this non issue for them and indeed the Europeans would want Russia on THEIR side.

Turkey will be hearing a earful for it's misadventure and will be told in no uncertain terms that it is alone in this and will be let to hang dry. Turkey is trying to be in Syria what Pakistan is in Afghanistan. In any case, this NATO business of "collective defence" is always about the big dogs (Germany and UK and France and the US) being the ones calling for others to be Munnas to join the fight and never a case of Munna starting the fight and calling the big boys.

No way in hell the White guys would want get Nuked for some idiocy the teeny Turkish "Wogs" would want to start and drag them into. The Turks will be firmly to to get off.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 24 Nov 2015 19:43

^^Not a german TOW.

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Nov 2015 19:43

Austin wrote:who are turkmen militia ?

'turkmen militia' are the politically correct term that Turkey uses for Nusra in Latakia.

this is what I get from netspeak.

NO doubt that Nusra (Al Qaeda) in Latakia does have a strong turkmen component but they are not the only ones. The Saudi passport that I posted a few pages back was also retrieved from Latakia border.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 24 Nov 2015 19:45

Russians were waiting for this.

Expect some big moves from the Kurds.

Turkey is heading for civil war.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 24 Nov 2015 19:47

Pakistan played it's game better during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan than Turkey is playing in Syria. Pakistan always had proxies like Hekmatyar and others to do their bidding and they were the ones manning the stingers bringing down the Helos in Chahrasiyab.

Zia was a more consummate player of realpolitik than Erdogan will ever be.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 24 Nov 2015 19:53

Putin has to show his country that he is strong. He will give a befitting response to Turkey.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z3sPo22vkk

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 24 Nov 2015 20:00

Article 6(1) of NATO as per the link provided by rsingh ji on previous page says:

Article 6 (1)
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Technically speaking Turkish border adjoining Syria is Asia.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 24 Nov 2015 20:08

Austin wrote:Russian Su-24 pilots shot dead while parachuting over Syria - Turkmen militia

https://www.rt.com/news/323281-russian- ... d-turkmen/

Killing a parachuting pilot is a war crime according to Article 42 of the Geneva convention.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 24 Nov 2015 20:10

So lets see how tough Putin really is. We have had some Russophiles periodically berating even current GOI for not being strong enough.. lets see the actual results, because I do hope that the Russians are exactly like we think they are, suffer no threats or provocations lightly. For the record I do hope Russia strikes back hard, ISIS has to be broken one way or the other.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 24 Nov 2015 20:18

Karan M wrote:So lets see how tough Putin really is. We have had some Russophiles periodically berating even current GOI for not being strong enough.. lets see the actual results, because I do hope that the Russians are exactly like we think they are, suffer no threats or provocations lightly. For the record I do hope Russia strikes back hard, ISIS has to be broken one way or the other.

Retribution by Russia is a given. But my firm belief is that they won't lash out, just for the sake of it. A key objective of the shooting down of the Russian aircraft today is to take Russia's eyes away from the ball - that of bombing ISIS to smithereens. They will continue with it, while working on the retribution bit quietly.

The airline bombers and Turkey - both will have a terrible price to pay. But not tomorrow or the day after..a fortnight from now or even a month from now is the time line we should be looking at.

member_23858 · Post by **member_23858** » 24 Nov 2015 20:30

One question to all the gurus...
Why cant Russia uses this attack by turkey and paint it as an attack by entire NATO (given that Turkey is a rabid dog on NATO's leash).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Nov 2015 20:33

Tarek Fatah ‏@TarekFatah 6 hrs6 hours ago Mumbai, Maharashtra
Turkey's shooting of Russian jet is meant to engineer a NATO vs Moscow confrontation that'll permit ISIS to continue its International Jihad

---

Al Boe ‏@AlBoeNEWS 7h7 hours ago
DEVELOPING: Rebel groups aligned with #Turkey claim to have captured one of the downed Russian pilots.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Nov 2015 20:38

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 4h4 hours ago
I am told that #Russia will wait for the first #Turkey Jets to cross #Syria. More #Russia/n jets will be brought to #Syria 4 interception.

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 4h4 hours ago
#Kurds will benefit from such a tension as #Russia will shoot down any #Turkish Jet over #Syria.+

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 4h4 hours ago
In Hamemeen, #Russian sources told me that the events as a "prepared ambush for #Russia/n Jets".

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 24 Nov 2015 20:40

All this talk about NATO treaty and its clauses means shit. The cronies will get involved whenever they want, even if it means bypassing UN charter or World opinion.

One can see that all elements are in place near the aircraft crash area (kill box) namely- camera, f-solah, tow-walla, and French Ac coming soon. Its a trap for RuAF which had operated with impunity until now.

While Russia's hands are tied , another alternative course is that this was a deliberate attempt to constrict Russia's operational capacity with Turkey's territorial expansion being next step. Turks , like pukis have created a Kargil like situation for Rusis. The outcome could be similar or may engulf Russian economy in its flames , whatever is left of it.
In the end ISIS could escape judgement day .

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Nov 2015 20:42

Any distance into Syria by Turkish air and there lies a very sig possibility of retribution. Or some revival of PKK / Kurds tension.

This might be to do with the Iran / Russia meet up yesterday too? Putin did meet Khamenei yesterday and it lasted for more than 90 mins.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 24 Nov 2015 20:46

martinbaker wrote:One question to all the gurus...
Why cant Russia uses this attack by turkey and paint it as an attack by entire NATO (given that Turkey is a rabid dog on NATO's leash).

For the reason that this is exactly what Turkey would like. Escalate this to a Russia-NATO issue and get Russia side-tracked from its mission in Syria.

Mind you, if Russia can show success in Syria, the day is not far off when Libya, Iraq and perhaps even Afghanistan approach Russia for help in sustained, targeted air campaigns against terror groups. This is a closely watched exercise and Russia cannot afford to be distracted from Syria.

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Nov 2015 20:49

Is NATO prepared to sacrifice Washington DC, London, New York and other places for confronting Russia.

India will say thank you NATO, and China can finish off the remaining capitals.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Nov 2015 20:49

they are going to double down on the air wing for sure. perhaps haul more bears out of the boneyards in the north , scrape off the snow and rust and send them in loaded heavy with large bombs down the euphrates axis.

they could loan a couple of bases in western iran to shorten the cycle time, cut costs and put more bombs on target.

a demo or two of FOAB is a distinct possibility on some turkoman militia right at the border, within sight of turkish tv cameras.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 24 Nov 2015 20:50

There is nothing that prevents Russia from shooting down Turkish F-16s within Turkey itself.

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 24 Nov 2015 20:52

^^ India will tolerate such kind bloodshed world over and let China do the rest with the west.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 24 Nov 2015 20:53

Question to Gurus:
Does effective SAR require some boots on the ground?

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Nov 2015 20:54

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_T ... _airfields

this is the total number of air bases in Turkey, one is incirlik the others are kukudukoo, gutgutgut and ikirpukir

what is guarantee that these lucky 13 bases will survive intact into new year ??

fun & games should begin with a cyber attack ..

member_23858 · Post by **member_23858** » 24 Nov 2015 20:56

If i had been Putin, I would "lure" few F16 into syria by upping the sorties of Aircrafts along the Turkey syrian border. Then let them walk into the trap, cross the air space, and kick the shit out of turkish EFF-Solah. Turkey is the poster child of certain groups (ehm Pakis). Beating the shit out of them serves many a people.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 24 Nov 2015 20:56

This is looking like a rerun of the Sarajevo episode where more and more players are piling on to the melee. Again, no Bismarck to keep the peace in the region

member_23858 · Post by **member_23858** » 24 Nov 2015 21:01

Paul wrote:This is looking like a rerun of the Sarajevo episode where more and more players are piling on to the melee. Again, no Bismarck to keep the peace in the region

Pauljee, In sarajevo, europe was eager to findout what industrial war looks like. And boy did it!!
I think, after two European wars, the europeans dont have a stomach left to fight, along with the fact that they dont have any colonies no more to sustain them. I see this as a cage match between Bear and Rabid Two-hit err-Dog-an

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 24 Nov 2015 21:07

That is why I said "The Region" and not "Europe". If not controlled in time, it could lead to unravelling of Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

Hope outcome will do to ME what WWI and II did to Europe.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Nov 2015 21:08

at some point in the past, the Euros gave all the islands in the aegean sea to greece even those a stones throw from turkey. so the fact is turkey owns almost no islands as seen in the map

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ap.svg.png

all these islands hugging the turk coast are under greece
https://www.google.co.in/maps/@38.86375 ... 7577,8.75z

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 24 Nov 2015 21:08

martinbaker wrote:If i had been Putin, I would "lure" few F16 into syria by upping the sorties of Aircrafts along the Turkey syrian border. Then let them walk into the trap, cross the air space, and kick the shit out of turkish EFF-Solah. Turkey is the poster child of certain groups (ehm Pakis). Beating the shit out of them serves many a people.

You said it.

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 24 Nov 2015 21:14

Putin will have his "Turkey" for Thanksgiving, oh wait that's only a American thingee.

Om-baba sacrificed his "Turkey" on Thanksgiving then.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Nov 2015 21:19

jabal turkman mountain in flames after ruaf worked it over today

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 5554562049