The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Nov 2015 12:40

'sultan' Erdogan decides he is not turkey, only chicken.
maybe even chickn sht.

ERDOGAN ORDERED TURKISH AIR FORCE PLANES BE GROUNDED
... Erdogan did not receive the hoped-for support from NATO. Erdogan has acknowledged that if the Russian plane even violated the border of Turkey, this was for only for 17 seconds, which means that the Turkish Air Force, on purely physical grounds, could not have reacted to it if the provocation was not prepared in advance. This figure of 17 seconds appears in NATO reports...
[Both Russian and Syrian flight data says not only that the Russian plane NEVER entered Turk airspace, but also, Russia has data to confirm that the TURK plane violated SYRIAN airspace]
‘Members of NATO have been ambiguously treating Erdogan’s action...
‘Turkey is afraid that their planes can be destroyed when approaching the border.
‘In this regard the Syrians reported that the Russia air-space forces can begin the full-scale destruction of camps in the border territory, and also annihilate the retreating militants and the fuel trucks which are moving towards Turkey...”

* * * * *
http://southfront.org/vks-russian-feder ... -grounded/

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Nov 2015 12:58

Great British foreign/defence policy review!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Syria.html
I admit it – Iraq was a mistake. But that shouldn't stop us intervening in Syria
Foreign interventions carry risks, and success is never guaranteed. But we cannot sit back and do nothing as long as Isil exists
Xcpts:

Nor are there hard and fast rules that tell us in advance where the use of force will succeed. It is important to have defined military objectives and a coherent plan for the political leadership and system that will come afterwards, such as in the brilliant British rescue of Sierra Leone from civil war in 2000. Yet in Libya in 2011, where I believe we saved many thousands of lives, the new leaders we relied on either left the scene or turned on each other, continuing their country’s crisis to this day.*(A load of bull,regime change and elimination of Ghadaffi was the secret agenda)

While our minds want to jump to permanent rules and assumptions the truth is that each case is different, and in none of them is success guaranteed. But there are three points of which we can be reasonably sure: we will need to intervene abroad more often in the next quarter of a century than the last one; we need to be equipped for that; and one of the times we need to do it is now.

The need will come more often because the rise of Islamist terrorism is not a phenomenon that will pass quickly, and the vast approaching bulge in the population of Africa and the Middle East will overwhelm Europe unless those people have more stable nations at home.

Being equipped for this means far more highly mobile forces able to work with other nations, with an emphasis on transport, surveillance and distant supply. This week’s defence review has therefore moved the UK in absolutely the right direction.

Finally,a spark of sense in the "bulge" statement. But this means not turning a Nelsonian eye towards the perfidy of the Saudis,Qataris,Turks and Gulfies...and one's own intel agencies who have been playing both sides,hunting with the hounds and hiding with the hares. Europe has no alternative but to refuse ALL Arab/Islamic refugees from entering the Eurozone and force the Arab neighbouring nations to take them in. This is the insidious plan of the Islamic jihadis,to overwhelm Europe with their flock who will effectively take over "Crusader" Europe by forcing it to its knees through the threat of terror.

PS:Please,please,pretty please,Sultan Erdogan,close the Straits oh Mighty one!
PPS:Erdo,a Chickenn Sultan?

Revenge is a dish best eaten cold. The Russians are of a cold climate species and Putin is no hothead. He will first get all Russians out of Turkey,assemble his mil forces in great strength and then begin the "Turkey shoot" at a time and place of his own choosing. In the meantime,there will be a huge propaganda campaign to educate the world as to the Sultan's fornication with ISIS.It has already started with Medvedev's statements. It would also be advisable for all the Turkmen in Syria to take out large insurance policies and /or get out of Syria asap. In fact they would be targets even in Turkish territory. As said earlier, Russia will only further build up its mil machine in Syria,perhaps also stationing tactical missiles there ,with the range capable of taking out Turkish air bases.
If the Chicken Sultan has indeed grounded his aircraft ,he must groudn them for good and allow Russian aircraft free overflights over Turkish territory.

However,one strongly feels that there is an undercurrent to what has happened not in the public domain.This was definitely premeditated and an ops that included the Yanquis.But who was the mastermind? Did it reach right upto the Oval Office?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Nov 2015 13:03

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... ][b]Russia deploys missile cruiser in Mediterranean to destroy 'any target' after plane shot down by Turkey[/b]
The warship Moskva is one of Russia's two biggest vessels in the Black Sea Fleet

Victoria Richards
18 minutes ago

Guided missile cruiser Moskva will provide extra aerial security to Russian forces EPA

Russia has deployed a missile cruiser to the Mediterranean to provide extra aerial security to its forces and to destroy any target that may "pose danger to its interests", following Turkey's shooting down of a Russian fighter jet on Tuesday.

The guided warship, "Moskva", is one of Russia's two biggest vessels in the Black Sea Fleet and will be positioned off Latakia, off the Syrian coast. It is intended to strengthen Russia's base in the region.
Read more

Nato convenes emergency Brussels meeting after Russian jet shot down
Long history of tension underlies Turkey's downing of Russian jet
Turkmen: The ethnic group embroiled in Syria's civil war

Sergey Rudskoy, a senior official with the Russian General Staff, said communication with the Turkish military would be cut off, IB Times reported.

He also outlined several measures "to ensure the security of the Russian air base" in response to the downing of the Su-24M bomber aircraft. These included:

First: all actions of strike aircraft will be carried out only under cover of fighter planes.
Second: measures will be taken to strengthen defence. "To this end, the cruiser Moskva, equipped with Fort air defence system, similar to S-300, will assume position in the coastal region of Latakia. We caution that any targets, representing a potential danger for us, will be destroyed," Mr Rudskoy said.
Third: Contacts with Turkey on military lines will be "discontinued".

Russian president Vladimir Putin had already warned of "serious consequences", accusing Turkey of being an "accomplice of terrorists" and the military operation a "stab in the back".

It is thought to be the first time a Nato member has shot down a Russian aircraft since the Cold War, and relations between the two nations could be severely damaged.

Russians have been advised not to go on holiday to Turkey, and Nato held an emergency meeting of its North Atlantic Council at Turkey's request.

Turkish officials have insisted that the warplane violated its airspace for 17 seconds - and ignored "21 warning messages in five minutes".

But Russia has denied the jet crossed the border and said it was cruising in Syrian territory locating Isis targets in the mountains of northern Latakia, where militants "mostly originate from Russia", when it was targeted.

Mr Putin said: "In any case, our pilots did not threaten Turkey in any way."
Russian plane shot down by Turkish jets

He has also warned that all Russian missions would now be accompanied by fighter jets.

Meanwhile, the Russian ambassador to France has said one of the two Russian pilots shot down by Turkey was picked up by the Syrian army.

The pilots, Sergei Rumyantsev and Aleksandr Akhmadulin, were previously feared dead after ejecting from the warplane before it crashed in Syria.

Turkish rebels claimed they had shot them dead as they parachuted to earth, Metro reported, amid video footage which appeared to show Mr Rumyantsev's body.[/quote]

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 13:11

Russia to deploy S-400 defense missile system to Khmeimim airbase in Syria - defense minister

https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-rus ... a-airbase/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 13:16

^ told ya yesterday. the s400 with its distributed radars will give far better coverage over north syria than the Moskva with its single radar and more modern missiles as well.

a bit later the SAA would be able to put in medium sized mountain top radars and Pantsyr & BUK launchers along M4 when thats taken.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 13:24

Whats M4 ?

SAA already operated Pantsir and BUK-M2 system

Check BUK for Syria https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4tZVENR3go

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 13:29

M4 is the highway from Latakia to Aleppo skirting the edge of the north mountains and passing near Idlib.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=993201

syria had a pretty reasonable road infra before the orcs came along

the countryside is beautiful mediterranean vegetation and rolling hills.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 13:31

Kudos to the Rescue Team and Pilot for managing to save himself from Jihadist and shooting Turkmen while parachuting , Seem the Pilot was killed while Navigator escaped confirms MOD

Shoigu: navigator shot down the Su-24 were rescued, it is delivered to the base alive

MOSCOW, November 25 - RIA Novosti. The Russian and Syrian special forces successfully completed the rescue operation navigator bomber Su-24 Russian Air Force shot down Tuesday in Syria, said Wednesday Defense Minister, Army General Sergei Shoigu.

"The operation was successful. The navigator delivered to our base. Alive and well", - the minister said at the board meeting of the Ministry of Defense.

The Minister noted that the operation lasted 12 hours and thanked "all our guys who are at great risk worked all night." "At 03.40 MSK they have completed the work," - said Shoigu.

"I reported the successful completion of the operation commander in chief (President Vladimir Putin). He asked me to thank all the personnel who took part in this operation," - said Shoigu.

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Nov 2015 13:37

Idlib is locked, so is Ghouta and Hama. Once the key highways connecting Turkey are blocked these places can be approached at leisure. So the main effort right now is to block the supply routes. Over the past few days a lot of hills in Latakia have been covered. The rebels are now wedged into a narrow arc which makes them very vulnerable to air attack. these rebels have just days more to live or escape to mothership Turkey.

S400 in Khmeimim and S400 at Kweiris will solve problem of coverage completely. No more Israel & Turkey launching cute air raids into Syria. With the current situation, these beasts will lock on to fighters even loitering in border areas, thus any denying coverage to rebels whatsoever.

NATO however will have other sneaky terror strikes up their sleeve.
NATO checklist:

Civilian Plane crash: Check
military plane crash: Check
helicopter crash: Check
western city attack: Check
cyber attack: ??
biological weapon: ??
chemical weapon: ??
JDAM: ??

NATO being NATO, they have to keep trying something every week. So take a guess.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 13:40

IraqiSuryani ‏@IraqiSuryani1 Nov 23
A military source said French jets would fly over #Turkey or #Jordan to avoid #Syrian anti-aircraft missile systems.

IraqiSuryani ‏@IraqiSuryani1 Nov 23
#France is coordinating with #Moscow via the #US coalition headquarters in #Qatar to avoid accidents with #Russian planes

sarkar · Post by **sarkar** » 25 Nov 2015 13:44

Aditya_V wrote:If Ergodan gets away with it, he will try more tricks and Russians are downt he same slippery slope, they did the same mistake with Pakis in Afganistan.....

Yeah.. Turkey is Russia's Pakistan in Afghanistan. This all adds up, for US, no direct confrontation but use proxies to engage Russia. But Turkey has lot to loose than Pakistan. Right now Russia should just ignore Turkey, avoid flying near their territory for miles to not to give them any excuse and finish the job in Syria so that Assad is back in control.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 25 Nov 2015 13:45

With so many actors, this conflict shows the primary requirement to be successful in any conflict is to control the airspace. If you're weak in any one of Fighter or air-defence elements, you'll suffer. Prompt SAR is also so crucial.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 13:45

^^ this might speed up the power repair work in kherson.

MOSCOW — Russia's state-controlled gas company is halting supplies to Ukraine, its chief executive said Wednesday, less than two months after the two countries struck an EU-sponsored deal.

Gazprom's CEO Alexei Miller said Russia sent the last shipment to Ukraine at 10 a.m. local time on Wednesday and send no more because Ukraine has not paid in advance for future supplies.

Russia resumed gas shipments to Ukraine less than two months ago after the two countries signed an EU-brokered deal ensuring supplies through March.

The Gazprom chief said Ukraine had been buying up gas to store for the coming winter in the past two months but said it was not enough to get it through the winter.

Past gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine have led to cutoffs. One standoff in 2009 caused serious disruptions in shipments EU countries in the dead of winter.

Temperatures in Ukraine where most homes rely on piped gas for central heating were below freezing Wednesday morning

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Nov 2015 13:51

sarkar wrote:Right now Russia should just ignore Turkey, avoid flying near their territory for miles to give them any excuse and finish the job in Syria so that Assad is back in control.

It is a very tactical game, and you cannot simply rest on single strategy. If the enemy sees your strategy then they keep testing it.
So it is important to unsettle the enemy by taking up initiative.
Erdogan is weak link since he has to have a certain position, but not strong enough by himself to defend it.
If push comes to shove and western capitals are under threat, NATO will not support Erdogan.
this is key.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 13:58

Even we took time to bring the Atlantique down , But I agree Russia should focus on what it is doing best to keep attacking targets.

Strengthen AD and better SAR capability and let SAA and Hizb capture more land to strengthen future negotiation.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 25 Nov 2015 14:01

Russian bombing in Turkman region is essential a strike against Turkish backed groups. Since the fighter got shot, this area is on fire. Lots of bombing and new gains for SAA+ in the southern fronts of the region.

Major rebel offensive on South West Aleppo yesterday was also foiled.

Russian Navy's Ropucha Cls. Large Landing Ship 158 Caesar Kunikov heading north on Bosphorus.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Nov 2015 14:02

Russia now said it has no objection to a joint command center with US, France and said has not objection even if Turkey joins that. I think for the time being they are ignoring the serious provocation from Khan and simply getting on with the job of liberating more and more land from ISIS. One work at a time seems to be the mantra.

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Nov 2015 14:09

Russia can have joint command centre with US, France, UK and feel loved by western EU. But this is basically mindset of doves.
But NATO has a bad habit, it has to provoke once a week, to give Russia poor face before future suitors.
It is their habit, they won't hold it up for long. They will give in.
Already 3 aircraft lost by Russia. Some point or later the hawks will take over.
they always do.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 14:14

imo scandalous revelations (docs,tapes, videos

) about the business/co-curricular activities of the Erdogan clan would be a useful stick too.

kit · Post by **kit** » 25 Nov 2015 14:15

Turkish officials have insisted that the warplane violated its airspace for 17 seconds - and ignored "21 warning messages in five minutes".

how does this work ..do they warn before the fighter plane enters their air space ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 14:17

^ maybe the su24 was on its 2nd or 3rd loop in that region per their version of radar track.

repeated warnings could have been given in the atlantique case. note we got him the 5th time he was inside and about to turn back.

BRao · Post by **BRao** » 25 Nov 2015 14:22

It is a pity that Russia is alone in this stand off with NATO. The western munnas of the US deserve a massive thappad to get them in line. NATO is the single biggest threat to world security and the biggest probable causes of WW3 if it ever happens.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 25 Nov 2015 14:30

+1 to that.

Lot of the instability in North Africa and Syria is due to meddling by American and other Western countries. Look what this Arab spring has done to Libya, Tunisia, and Syria. The sectarian angle to this cannot be ignored with Saudis and Qataris pouring countless billions in keeping Yemen, Syria and Iraq destabilised.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 25 Nov 2015 14:31

It looks like the Pigeon was right; Putin is getting himself into an expensive quagmire.

And how's them nuclear arms working out?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 14:37

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 47801.html

isis hottie beaten to death for trying to flee raqqa.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Nov 2015 14:39

They deserve what they get if they went there from other places to live under Islamic rule.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 25 Nov 2015 14:42

No they don't. These are 17 year old girls.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 14:44

they made their choice knowing full well how ISIS operated

harsh but I wonder how many yazidi women they beat up or guarded in IS rape houses. thats usually the work given to female jihadis.

dont let looks deceive.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 25 Nov 2015 14:49

With Russia setting up S-400 and moving air defence warships close by, it is just a matter of time before some Turkish airplane is brought down on claim of posing threat to Russian planes and / or violating Syrian airspace. Turkey could be safe as long as they do not let their planes fly within 50 miles of Syrian border for next several months and in the meanwhile, cut a deal with Russia to work out a face saving formula for both of them.

If I were Erdogen, I will ground Turkish air force or order them not to venture 50 miles closer to the border. Turkish well armed air force with better EW capabilities may even have an upper hand over Russian jets, but against S-400, they don't stand much chance.

sarkar · Post by **sarkar** » 25 Nov 2015 14:59

How do Russia take weapons to Syria? through Istanbul?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 15:00

Seems after receiving AAM hits the Su-24 still managed to fly with huge fire ball on its ass but did not explode and the two pilots managed to eject , They seems to be quite rugged in taking hits and flying for some time with both engine gone , No Structural destruction in air till it hit the ground

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 15:02

Putin Signs Decree to Award 3 Heroes of Syrian Operation, 2 Posthumously

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20151125/ ... UWGV[quote]

Vladimir Putin has awarded two Russian officers fallen in Syria and gave the order 'For Personal Courage' to the Russian captain who survived.

"For heroism, courage and bravery shown during the fulfilment of his military duties, Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov has been awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation (posthumously)," the presidential decree released by the Kremlin press service reads.

Furthermore, for their courage, bravery, and selflessness in carrying out their military duties, Su-24 co-pilot Captain Konstantin Murahtin, who made it back to friendly territory following a successful search and rescue operation, and Naval Infantry Soldier Alexandr Pozynich, who was killed during the course of a rescue operation, were awarded the Order of Courage (Pozynich posthumously).[/quote]

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 15:04

Toner Low: Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Incited By US State Dept.

Toner said that Turkey and the militants it backs in northern Syria had the right to defend themselves against Russian airstrikes.

Zakharova responded by writing on her Facebook page: "Remember these words. Remember forever. And I will never forget [them]. I promise."

The militants reportedly killed one Russian pilot who ejected from the Su-24 jet after it was hit by a Turkish missile on Tuesday.

"If those Syrian Turkmen were actually being attacked by Russian strikes, they have every right to defend themselves," Toner said.

When asked whether shooting at unarmed pilots could be considered self-defense, Toner played dumb, saying on behalf of the State Department that "there is no clear understanding of what happened there."

sarkar · Post by **sarkar** » 25 Nov 2015 15:09

And also a feather in the cap for F16 to shoot an unchallenging (and probably unarmed) Su24.
Now since there will be fighters escorting all bombers, lets see how Turkish F16 handles this.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 15:10

sarkar wrote:How do Russia take weapons to Syria? through Istanbul?

see turkishnavy.net for a daily list of photos of RuN supply ships moving through bosporus.
also some eqpt is brought in via IL76 and An124 flying over Iraq

the Su24 is indeed a rugged old dog. probably has armour plate between the two engines to safeguard one infact one gets on fire.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Nov 2015 15:15

On September 23, 2014, a Syrian Su-24 was shot down by an Israeli Air Defense Command MIM-104D Patriot missile near Quneitra, after it had penetrated 800 meters into Israeli controlled airspace over the Golan Heights.[24] The missile hit the aircraft when it already re-entered into the Syrian air space.[25] Both crew members ejected safely and landed in Syrian territory

^^ cockpit and engines probably have good armour and thick bp glass.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2015 15:44

Yes to survive Patriot 104D SAM Explosive around 90 Kg it really needs to have good structural strength and design redundancy so that it does not get pulverised , I remember one Patriot by mistake hit an F-16 and it simply got pulverised on the air

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Nov 2015 15:47

btw why is Modi visiting this Islamic pestilence of Turkey, any specific reason go continue with that visit ? What is there in Erdogan that needs to be pursued ? what bilateral relation can increase .. he has already played his cards. His best friends are ISIS, Nusra, Turkomen Grey Wolves, kutkutkut, ikirpikir

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Nov 2015 15:58

JTull wrote:With so many actors, this conflict shows the primary requirement to be successful in any conflict is to control the airspace. If you're weak in any one of Fighter or air-defence elements, you'll suffer. Prompt SAR is also so crucial.

er this is debatable.

Control of airspace allows your planes in and out. But it's the ground that matters. Time and time again armies with no air cover have prevailed (with losses of course).

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Nov 2015 16:05

Austin wrote:Yes to survive Patriot 104D SAM Explosive around 90 Kg it really needs to have good structural strength and design redundancy so that it does not get pulverised , I remember one Patriot by mistake hit an F-16 and it simply got pulverised on the air

Shortly before Vayu Shakti or Iron fist an IAF Su 30 had a bomb explode under its wing. I think both pilots ejected - amazing that the plane did not disintegrate.