The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 04 Dec 2015 13:35

You cant make this shyte up.

http://news.yahoo.com/erdogan-insult-ca ... 18539.html

In Erdogan insult case, Turkish court asks: is 'Hobbit' character Gollum evil?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Dec 2015 13:39

http://swarajyamag.com/world/explained- ... lised-war/

Original Title - Turkey Takes a Potshot at Russia: How Small Wars Become Big Wars

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 04 Dec 2015 14:43

Good one JEM.

SAA is advancing in northern Latakia under the cover provided by RuAF

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syr ... n-latakia/

Syrian Army Captures Ruwesat Khandiq Aftet the Russian Air Force Devastates the Islamists in Northern Latakia
BY LEITH FADEL ON DECEMBER 4, 2015 F

The Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade of the Republican Guard has been rolling through the northern Latakia countryside as of late, capturing several sites that were under the control of the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra” and their counterparts from Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and the Free Syrian Army’s “1st Coastal Brigade”.

A big part of the Syrian Arab Army’s recent success in northern Latakia has come as a result of the Russian Air Force’s powerful aerial campaign that has overwhelmed the Islamist rebel forces around Jabal Al-Akrad (Kurdish Mountains) and Jabal Al-Turkmen (Turkmen Mountains).
...

Israeli AF has bombed the SAA missile positions:

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isr ... s-reports/

sraeli Airstrikes on Syrian Missiles: Israeli News Reports
BY PAUL ANTONOPOULOS ON DECEMBER 4, 2015 MIDDLE EAST

Israeli media have reported that airstrikes have targeted the 155 ballistic air missile brigade based in al-Qutayfah, just northeast of Damascus.

According to the reports, the targets were four trucks carrying the ballistic missils. They were attacked by a drone.
...

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 04 Dec 2015 14:58

JE Menon wrote:http://swarajyamag.com/world/explained- ... lised-war/

Original Title - Turkey Takes a Potshot at Russia: How Small Wars Become Big Wars

from a western view point it all boils down to this:

1. Nobody wants to spend a lot of money or blood fighting yet again in the ME. Done with that.

2. However, these psycho terrorists are making a major nuisance of themselves and while wrecking havoc on the domestic front by occasional massacres, they are by no means a threat to the national existence *yet*.

3. A campaign of killing psycho leadership and executioners is in progress although temporarily halted due to mistrust of the Russians.

4. The Muslim allies must be placated o a certain degree in order to keep strategic alliances on going and to allow a ring of military might to surround the ME in order o keep western influence alive and markets participating. From Kuwait to Oman over to Djibouti and up north to Turkey the west has stationed gear and personnel with in some cases investment decades of careful diplomatic influence.

5. Despite all of the above, while the west has a certain amount of influence, we don't tell the Muslims what to do. That's a basic fact. These guys can easily and often sometimes do, go off the deep end. Such as:

a. F***ing up Kuwait, and then saying we gave them permission, like we are in charge or something.

b. Unending hostility to Israel. Saying they are the major consumers of ISIS oil. They will say any lie that they can think of concerning Israel. They will also stab little old ladies riding on buses.

c. Unending religious strife among themselves.

d. Tribalism. I don't think the west understands just how tribal these guys are. And then we try push a federalist state upon them???? How stupid can we get? thus the current state of Iraq. Nobody was going to fight ISIS so they dropped their gear and fled. Now Iraq mainly has Iranian Shiite militias and Kurdish forces as its national Army.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Dec 2015 15:10

hezbollah et al are high level operators .. far above the pay grade of wahabbi rat eaters sent by the barbarians and NATO munnas

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 6m6 minutes ago
Hezbollah soldiers slept outside in Ma'aloula; liberated the city from the "moderates" and then left before sunrise. True men of Islam.

maloula is a christian village atop the hills, mostly old nuns & some priests remain here.

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 8m8 minutes ago
The Iranian soldiers don't enter our churches or our market places. If we offer them food, they politely refuse. Islamist rebels just steal.

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 10m10 minutes ago
Iranian soldiers are protecting my village. They do not bother the people or take anything. The Islamist rebels would kick the people out...

these are dedicated to NATO munnas

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 12m12 minutes ago
Apparently, people named Michael, Charles, Kyle, and Julian know what's right for Syria - maybe they can live in Idlib.

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 14m14 minutes ago
Apparently, the opinion of Syrians is not important - foreign Twitter shills that couldn't locate Syria on a map 6 years ago do....

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 16m16 minutes ago
Nothing pisses me off more than westerners supporting Islamists in Syria. If you like Shari'ah so much - then you should go to Saudi Arabia

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Dec 2015 15:12

since syrian tochka missiles are not meant for use against israel but instead on palmyra/al quratyn front, Israel is in general now just helping along their allies of convenience the ISIS by such attacks.

sure their direct enemy is hezbollah but they are fooling themselves if a ISIS ruled lebanon and syria followed by jordan will not be much worse than hezbollah which is more "controlled" in its anti-israelism.

jordan is a british protectorate of sorts but the brits will be able to do precious little if the ISIS remain in their swamp and come south looking to cut themselves in on some action.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 04 Dec 2015 15:18

^^^^^^this has the ear marks of an Qbama squeeze play that he loves to do.

the pigeon is pooping on the chest board.

did somebody say Israel opened an office in UAE?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Dec 2015 15:27

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/324563-isis- ... ria/[quote]
Breaking news German Bundestag approves sending 1,200 troops on anti-ISIS 'support' mission in Syria

How Russia is smashing the Turkish game in Syria
Published time: 3 Dec, 2015

Oil transportation routes into Turkey from Syria and Iraq. © Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation / Sputnik
So why did Washington take virtually forever to not really acknowledge ISIS/ISIL/Daesh is selling stolen Syrian oil that will eventually find its way to Turkey?

Because the priority all along was to allow the CIA – in the shadows – to run a “rat line” weaponizing a gaggle of invisible “moderate rebels”.

As much as Daesh – at least up to now – Barzani mob in Iraqi Kurdistan was never under Washington’s watch. The oil operation the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) runs to Turkey is virtually illegal; stolen state-owned oil as far as Baghdad is concerned.

Daesh stolen oil can’t flow through Damascus-controlled territory. Can’t flow though Shiite-dominated Iraq. Can't go east to Iran. It’s Turkey or nothing. Turkey is the easternmost arm of NATO. The US and NATO “support” Turkey. So a case can be made that the US and NATO ultimately support Daesh.

What’s certain is that illegal Daesh oil and illegal KRG oil fit the same pattern; energy interests by the usual suspects playing a very long game.

What these interests are focused on is to control every possible oil asset in Iraqi Kurdistan and then in “liberated” Syria. It’s crucial to know that Tony "Deepwater Horizon" Hayward is running Genel, whose top priority is to control oil fields that were first stolen from Baghdad, and will eventually be stolen from the Iraqi Kurds.

And then, there’s the Turkmen powder keg.

The key reason why Washington always solemnly ignored Ankara’s array of shady deals in Syria, through its fifth column Turkmen jihadis, is because a key CIA “rat line” runs exactly through the region known as Turkmen Mountain.

These Turkmen, supplied by Ankara’s “humanitarian” convoys, got American TOW-2As for their role in preserving prime weaponizing/ smuggling routes. Their advisers, predictably, are Xe/Academi types, formerly Blackwater. Russia happened to identify the whole scam and started bombing the jihadis. Thus the downing of the Su-24.

The Turkmen fifth column

Now the CIA is on a mission from God - frantically trying to prevent the “rat line” from being definitely smashed by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on the ground and Russia in the air.

The same desperation applies to the Aleppo-Azez-Killis route, which is also essential for Turkey for all kinds of smuggling.

The advanced arm of the “4+1” alliance – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah – is taking no prisoners trying to re-conquer these two key corridors.

And that explains Ankara’s desperation – with a little help from ‘His Masters’ Voice’ – to come up with an entirely new rat line/corridor through Afrin, currently under Syrian Kurd control, before Damascus forces and Russia air power get there.

Once again it’s important to remember that a gaggle of Turkmen outfits are Ankara’s fifth column in northern Syria.

Most Turkmen live in Kurdish territories. And here’s the ultimate complicating factor; the majority happen to live in the Jarablus region, currently controlled by ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. It’s exactly this area that is cutting the geographic connection between the two Kurdish cantons, Kobani and Afrin.

So imagine a continuous Syrian Kurd control/autonomy/corridor all across the Turkish-Syrian border. For Ankara this is the ultimate nightmare. Ankara’s strategy is to move its Turkmen pawns, with added “moderate rebels”, all across the Jarablus region. The pretext: wipe Daesh off the map. The real reason: prevent the two Kurdish cantons – Afrin and Kobani – from merging.

And once again Ankara will be directly pitted against Moscow.

The Russian strategy rests on very good relations with Syrian Kurds. Moscow not only supports the Syrian Kurd canton merger, but qualifies it as an important step on the way to a new Syria rid of takfiris. Russia will even officially recognize the PYD (Democratic Union Party) and allow them a representative office in Russia.

Ankara regards the PYD and its paramilitary arm, the YPG (People’s Protection Units) as branches of the PKK. It gets curioser and curioser when we know that both Moscow and Washington are cooperating with the YPG against ISIS/ISIL/Daesh.

The predictable All-Out Ankara Freak Out came in the form of ‘Sultan’ Erdogan declaring the Euphrates a “red line” for the YPG. If they try to move westward to fight Daesh, sending them out of the Jarablus area, the Turkish Army will strike.

It’s absolutely key for Turkey to control this area between Jarablus and Afrin because here is the site of the would-be “safe zone”, actually a no-fly zone, which Ankara dreams of implementing using the three billion just extorted from the EU to house refugees but also control northern Syria. Turkmen would be in charge of the area – as well as the Azez-Aleppo line, assuming the SAA does not clear it for good.

The case for UEBA
So Ankara is looking at two very unpleasant Turkmen-filled scenarios to say the least.

Turkmen becoming instruments of Ankara and gatekeepers against the Kurdish YPG; that means a nasty sectarian divide, orchestrated by Turkey, whose greatest loser is the unity of the Syrian nation.

Meanwhile, the SAA and Russian air power are on the verge of total control of Turkmen Mountain.

This will allow the “4+1” to go much deeper fighting against the so-called Army of Conquest and its twin-headed reptile, Jabhat al-Nusra (a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria) and Ahrar al-Sham, the whole lot “supported” and weaponized by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The “4+1” inexorable advance comes with extra benefits; the end of all rat lines in the region, and no more possible threats to Russia’s air base in Hmeimim.

Make no mistake that Moscow will inflict as much pain on ‘Sultan’ Erdogan as possible.

As Turkish newspaper Radikal quoted him, Prof. Abbas Vali of Bogazici University confirmed, “The PYD was pleased about Russia’s intervention in Syria. An alliance between the PYD and Russia is inevitable. Russia’s bombardment of the radical Islamist groups on the ground will have a huge impact on the PYD operations.”

So no matter which way we look, Turkey and Russia are on a serious collision course in Syria. Moscow will support Syrian Kurds no holds barred as they push to link the three major Kurdish cantons in northern Syria into a unified Rojava.

As for Washington’s “strategy”, it now boils down to the CIA need for a new “rat line”. That could imply sitting on the – weaponizing – sidelines watching Turkmen and Kurds slug it out, thus creating an opening for the Turkish Army to intervene, and the Russian Air Force to prevent it, with all hell guaranteed to break loose.

‘Sultan’ Erdogan badly needs a new CIA-secured “rat line” to weaponize not only his fifth column Turkmen but also Chechens, Uzbeks and Uyghurs. And Bilal Erdogan, a.k.a. Erdogan Mini Me, desperately needs new oil smuggling routes and a couple of new tankers; Russia is watching their every move. The latest news from Russia’s Defense Ministry has struck like a volcanic eruption; the Erdogan family mob was branded as “criminals”, with Moscow presenting only an appetizer of the all the evidence it has in store.

So we have the Afghan heroin rat line. The Libyan oil racket (now over). The Ukraine fascist rat line. The Libya to Syria weapon rat line. The stolen Syrian oil trade. The northern Syrian rat lines. Let’s call them UEBA: Unregulated Exceptionalist Business Activities. What’s not to like? There’s no business like war business.
[/quote]

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Dec 2015 15:33

Again the Libya to Syria arms supply line comes up.

Benghazi attack could be due to that.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Dec 2015 15:40

tx deejay.

TSJ,

You'll see that I'm not really disagreeing with any of your points, just pointing out the implications. You'll notice that the article itself is in the nature of a predictive description, rather than an allocation of blame, prescriptive analysis, or anything of the sort.

>>1. Nobody wants to spend a lot of money or blood fighting yet again in the ME. Done with that.

Agreed, and that's part of the problem.

>>2. However, these psycho terrorists are making a major nuisance of themselves and while wrecking havoc on the domestic front by occasional massacres, they are by no means a threat to the national existence *yet*.

Correct, not a physical threat of the type that Western countries are used to so far, although they are not unfamiliar with it. The problem is more one of underestimation rather than overestimation, in my opinion.

>>3. A campaign of killing psycho leadership and executioners is in progress although temporarily halted due to mistrust of the Russians.

So far it's hardly been a campaign. A couple here and a couple there. Fact is that the ISIS would not exist now if a serious air campaign and a financial deprivation effort had been in place. It has not been in place. I think it is not likely to come into effect.

>>4. The Muslim allies must be placated o a certain degree in order to keep strategic alliances on going and to allow a ring of military might to surround the ME in order o keep western influence alive and markets participating. From Kuwait to Oman over to Djibouti and up north to Turkey the west has stationed gear and personnel with in some cases investment decades of careful diplomatic influence.

Yes, and that is why the spiral I'm predicting is likely to unfold in the months and years ahead. As you say, allies must be placated.

>>5. Despite all of the above, while the west has a certain amount of influence, we don't tell the Muslims what to do. That's a basic fact.

Exactly right. You don't tell the Muslims what to do. In short, these allies have their own agendas. That is central to the problem, and why things are likely to unfold the way they must in the circumstances.

>>b. Unending hostility to Israel. Saying they are the major consumers of ISIS oil. They will say any lie that they can think of concerning Israel. They will also stab little old ladies riding on buses.

One of the biggest losers in all this mess is Israel, not because it itself has become weaker, but because its main allies have become less able to act without resorting to violence. The room for manoeuvre is being limited to confrontational options, and that's never a good thing for those in the middle of the war theatre.

There's really only one way for this to play out - only question is of how long, what will be the trigger and when it will happen. I'm inclined to think that the Russian jet shoot-down was the "Gavrilo Princip" moment of the 21st century (almost exactly a century later weirdly), although the denouement is likely to be more drawn out. The ironies don't end there: Princip was an Orthodox Christian from an anti-Ottoman (Muslim) Slavic family, while the latter-day Ottomans shot down a jet from a Slavic Orthdox country. Princip's assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand of the Austro Hungarian empire was in Sarajevo, not too far as geographic distances go from the are of the jet shoot-down.

There's only one way to avoid the coming mess. Obama and Putin sit down, cut the crap and make a deal. Assad will stay in place, but will permit a proper monitored election a couple of years down the line. Kill the Islamists and allies in Syria. Work out a modus vivendi for Libya and Iraq, with actual and effective joint campaigns to wipe out the Islamists. Impose a mutually agreed leadership (non-Islamist) in Libya. There are candidates. Force it on the people, and they will happily accept it. Anything is better than the situation now. Help the Iraqis to stabilise. Forget about the Europeans. They are ineffectual and will fall in line with any line the US takes in this regard especially if they see a stabilising potential. Iran will also fall in line when they see the US-Russia acting together. Turkey will be a harder nut to crack, but with sufficient pressure they will buckle too. Don't give them anything as a sweetener. They must do it in their own interest for stability, and abandon expansionist goals. This will mean swallowing of some pride on all sides. But if Obama takes the lead and makes a history call, Putin will play ball.

Question is: will Obama demonstrate the required cojones. He has it in him, for sure. But my assessment is that he won't. For local political reasons.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 04 Dec 2015 15:48

^^^I would additionally point out that the US has been building forces with the Kurds much to the discomfort of the Turks and Iraqi Iranian backed government.

So it's not all placating. If we find a serious force willing to cooperate, we will move on it.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Dec 2015 15:54

Oh yes. That's been the case for decades now. The US is not in a "losing" position in the Middle East, except for occasional loss of face - which I don't think they give a crap about. The real losers are (from the Western side) the Israelis and the Europeans. On the Muslim Middle Eastern side, the Turks, the Saudis and the Syrians - well the Arabs in general. And of course the tens of little non-Muslim communities in the region.

What we are seeing now the practical expression of power abhorring a vacuum. All sorts of ambitions and tendencies are trying to fill it up.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 04 Dec 2015 16:02

i think a partitioning of syria and iraq into new sunni, shia and kurd lands is almost inevitable now
the turks and iranians will have to get used to kurdistan (here the US and Ru can dictate)
and the kurds can play ball and be nice to keep the peace

EU is irrelevant, however i still believe that the US-Saudi-Russian oil game is far from played out. Increasingly i see signs that the saudis are cracking... inshallah this too shall come true!

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Dec 2015 17:19

Foreign Warship On Bosphorus 2015
http://turkishnavy.net/

Russian naval ships are passing through the Bosphorus.

-------

US desperate to disrupt Russian push in Syria: Analyst
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/12/0 ... ria-Daesh-

-------

Russia Will Launch Massive Operations Code Named "TOTAL DESTRUCTION"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl8gJQQIDd0

Russia has vowed continued fight against terrorists in Syria using its warships.

Moscow will reportedly launch massive operations codenamed 'Total Destruction' against the terrorists using 69 Sukhoi fighter jets,

Tupolev 160 bombers,

submarines and warships deployed in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Russian grouping will be supported by S-400 missile defense systems deployed in Syria and the Moskva guided missile cruiser outfitted with S-300F Fort anti-air systems off the coast of Latakia.

------------

Syria is now too well defended to be simply overrun:

A high-ranking officer within the joint operation room in Damascus (consisting of Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah) said “Damascus received sets of S -300 advanced Russian missiles, ready to enter active service.

Soon, Syria will announce that any country using the airspace without coordinating with Damascus will be viewed as hostile and will shoot the jet (s) without warning.

Those willing to fight terrorism and coordinate with the military leadership will be granted safe corridors”.

In another development, according to the same source, “Iran is preparing two squadrons of Sukhoi to engage the war in Syria.

These will be stationed at the T4 Syrian military airport in Homs, very close to Palmyra (Tadmur), previously known as Tiyas.

The Iranian Air Force will join the Russian Air Force in their war against extremist terrorist Takfeerees in Syria”.

The Russian are said to increase the numbers of their jets in Syria to 96.

Together with Iran's then 24 jets of the Su-24 type in Tiyas and the Syrian air force the fighter capability of that force is quite noteable.

There are of course also the anti-air missiles on the ground:

Airports are protected by Pantsyr S1 short range systems.

There are TOR M1/M2 medium range anti-air missile systems.

The Syrian S-300, the Russian S-400 in Latakia and the additional S-300s on board of the Moskva near the Syrian coast are long range systems and would make an attack very costly.

The U.S. tends to avoids attacking countries with competent air defense and Syria has by now an excellent one.

The way through Syria is closed.

The Iraqis will not allow more U.S. troops on their ground.

They reasonably believe that the U.S. is on the side of IS.

Several Shia militia in Iraq have announced that they will attack any additional U.S. forces.

Using the Kurdish areas in Iraq to attack IS would be very difficult as supplies would have to go through treacherous, blackmailing Turkey, which is secretly allied with IS, and pass through areas where the Turks and the Kurdish PKK are fighting each other.

Going through Jordan and from there to Anbar province in Iraq would enrage the many IS followers in Jordan and destroy that state too.

Making peace with Assad, as even tea party candidate Ted Cruz now recommends, to then attack IS would be the logical way to go.

But Obama and the people around him are too presumptuous to take such a step.

They can not admit that they were wrong all along and that Assad and Putin were and are right.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/12/wh ... ttack.html

member_29247 · Post by **member_29247** » 04 Dec 2015 18:02

During Saddam Husien GW II wars he ordered a whole bunch of air craft to be sheltered in Iran, are those Sunthat Iran is going to deploy , the above report talks about?

Or are these new procurements by Iran from Russia.

If Russia has some counter strategic moves, it should sell to India, some Engine manufacturing technology, civilian aircraft technology, metallurgy plants to make advanced materials and recoup the
$$$s it is spending on this Syrian war, it will also wean away all defense contracts going to western countries...

Ok Imam almost sounding like Philiphs Saar ji

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 04 Dec 2015 18:16

The real losers are (from the Western side) the Israelis ....

IMHO, Israel is gaining immensely from this Shia Sunni war. The Shias with Russian help seem to winning it. The Sunnis of Nusra and Daesh cannot be wiped out without genocide. So for decades ahead the target of the jihadis is going to be sectarian in nature.
Israel can hope to live in relative peace.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 04 Dec 2015 19:12

... and hezb have their hands full

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Dec 2015 20:14

A controlled sectarian war may be OK. But this is not a controlled sectarian war. Further, you can bet that if the IS or any of the Al Qaida affiliates get access to the Israeli border, the situation will not be pretty. Who is going to say no to their attacks on Israel? The Gulf Sunnis? And Hizbollah will happily reorient themselves, not to be outdone by the Sunni non-state actors. The trouble here is that there are no states to deal with. If hundreds of these fighters start randomly lobbing crap across the Lebanese or Syrian border whom is Israel going to fight? I think people are probably not well aware of the actual ground situation in Israel, how close these places where the fighting is going on are to the Jewish state. Israel is very very vulnerable. It does not have population like we do. If one million lunatics come across the border, there'll be 10 million pissing on them literally. Israel does not have that luxury.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Dec 2015 20:22

^^^ Israel was safer with Iraq under Saddam Hussein, who, however horrible, was not suicidal. Deterrence then works. It is much more difficult to guard from attacks of a group that embraces suicide. The threat of retaliation no longer works.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 04 Dec 2015 20:37

its quite messy - the druze make up a big minority in many of these countries and they are in the cross hairs of daesh. the druze also make up large numbers in the IDF and are increasingly growing restive with attacks on their cousins elsewhere

then there are many flavours of christians scattered all across the middle east

then all the heretical sects of both islam and christianity

each community with x-000 years of grievances...

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Dec 2015 21:21

JEM,

Not that simple, in fact, the whole ball of wax has been very complex. That cartoon of everyone holding a gun pointed at someone else is very true.

So, as an example, Israel gets a *majority* of her oil through the Kurds. Do not know how it gets from there to here, but I have to suspect it is via Turkey (at least that is what I have been assuming all along)(BTW, this has been MO for some time now).

Now if Russia is trying to shut that "oil through Turkey" down, then what are the implications? Because, Russia and Israel seem to be doing a very delicate dance - a hot line between the two itself implies that Russia *knows* and is allowing some Israeli activity/ies within the radius of those S-400s. Certainly Israel does not have the same freedom as without the S-400, but for sure they still operate

Superimpose this on what you have posted. Would Russia allow elements - any - to meddle with Israel? I very much doubt it.

The larger/bigger question is what are restrictions - if any - that go along with the S-300s provided to Syria itself. And, what does, Israel in specific, think of the S-300. Israel is not going to either keep quite nor care for what others think if the S-300s make their presence known. In fact, I had read a report that a few weeks ago am Israeli F-16 was shot down by Syria. Could not verify it anywhere. But is it possible? I would like to think so. Anything is really. But the true question is who is going to escalate and to what extent? Syria will get a few jets shot down, that is the nature of the game. Escalation? Dunno.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Dec 2015 21:39

>>Would Russia allow elements - any - to meddle with Israel? I very much doubt it.

This actually emphasises the point about Israel's vulnerability. We shouldn't be asking this question. It should be "Would the US allow elements - any - to meddle with Israel?" It's happening... so, there we are. Israel is in a weaker position. We are now asking if Russia would let anyone meddle with Israel. I think they won't, but if the US cannot dictate terms locally, be sure Russia can't either.

In fact, as the world slips into multipolarity, Israel's position (I am referring to its real vulnerability, the land, to threats from all around) becomes less secure. I'm not concerned about its technological superiority. But it does not have any real depth against hundreds of thousands of lunatics all along its borders, and many within, and all potentially armed with weapons that have the potential to kill large numbers of people.

Of course, I'm not saying it is simple. I'm saying exactly the opposite. That's why the overall situation is very brittle and fragile.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Dec 2015 22:01

be sure Russia can't either

Very interesting. Thanks for that data point.

I knew we are going through a realignment, but this kind, is truly unusual. Very, very rare. Glad BR is around to document some of it.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 04 Dec 2015 22:09

Israel, Saudi, Turkey and Egypt are on the US side. Iran, Iraq, and Syria are on the Russia side.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Dec 2015 22:51

Awesome video with RuAF hitting a rat shelter, maybe close to the Turkish border in Latakia, with what appears to be a bunker buster bomb.

https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/ ... 5435702272

"First time in 3 years, #Egypt-ian airliner arrives in #Damascus #Syria"

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 2639770624

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Dec 2015 22:57

Russia Will Launch Massive Operations Code Named "TOTAL DESTRUCTION"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl8gJQQIDd0

Russia has vowed continued fight against terrorists in Syria using its warships.

Moscow will reportedly launch massive operations codenamed 'Total Destruction' against the terrorists using 69 Sukhoi fighter jets,

Tupolev 160 bombers,

submarines and warships deployed in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Russian grouping will be supported by S-400 missile defense systems deployed in Syria and the Moskva guided missile cruiser outfitted with S-300F Fort anti-air systems off the coast of Latakia.

------------

Syria is now too well defended to be simply overrun:

A high-ranking officer within the joint operation room in Damascus (consisting of Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah) said “Damascus received sets of S -300 advanced Russian missiles, ready to enter active service.

Soon, Syria will announce that any country using the airspace without coordinating with Damascus will be viewed as hostile and will shoot the jet (s) without warning.

Those willing to fight terrorism and coordinate with the military leadership will be granted safe corridors”.

In another development, according to the same source, “Iran is preparing two squadrons of Sukhoi to engage the war in Syria.

These will be stationed at the T4 Syrian military airport in Homs, very close to Palmyra (Tadmur), previously known as Tiyas.

The Iranian Air Force will join the Russian Air Force in their war against extremist terrorist Takfeerees in Syria”.

The Russian are said to increase the numbers of their jets in Syria to 96.

Together with Iran's then 24 jets of the Su-24 type in Tiyas and the Syrian air force the fighter capability of that force is quite noteable.

There are of course also the anti-air missiles on the ground:

Airports are protected by Pantsyr S1 short range systems.

There are TOR M1/M2 medium range anti-air missile systems.

The Syrian S-300, the Russian S-400 in Latakia and the additional S-300s on board of the Moskva near the Syrian coast are long range systems and would make an attack very costly.

The U.S. tends to avoids attacking countries with competent air defense and Syria has by now an excellent one.

The way through Syria is closed.

The Iraqis will not allow more U.S. troops on their ground.

They reasonably believe that the U.S. is on the side of

I know I sound like a broken record, but this is the perfect time for us to get in on this game, especially with the French and Germans committed. Why not send our best squadron of SU-30's and our best equipped Mirage 2000 squadron? Surely we can keep such a small force maintained well enough to avoid accidents? The precision ATG capabilities of these aircraft exceed most of what the Russians have over there.

We could limit ourselves to high-altitude bombing with SU-30's providing air cover (and bristling with AAM's). This wouldn't cost much, especially if we roll ourselves into the Russian air-tasking order (to simplify air traffic control and other issues). Are the logistics really that daunting for such a deployment? We do huge war games and drop vast quantities of ordnance on empty deserts; we mobilized half the army on our border for no purpose in 2002; we even launched an unnecessary war in Sri Lanka baxk in the 80's... heck just a few years back we had sage BRF-ites clamoring for an Indian deployment to US-occupied Iraq (!!!) and you guys are gun-shy now? If ever there was a cheap opportunity to get valuable experience, test platforms and weapons, and build lasting alliances, this is it.

Again, just my opinion; I doubt GOI is even considering this.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Dec 2015 23:02

Why do you want India to get involved in this?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Dec 2015 23:37

Take a look at India's largest trading partners, and then, please realize, taking sides among them is not in India's interest.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 04 Dec 2015 23:50

Y. Kanan wrote:
Russia Will Launch Massive Operations Code Named "TOTAL DESTRUCTION"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl8gJQQIDd0

Russia has vowed continued fight against terrorists in Syria using its warships.

Moscow will reportedly launch massive operations codenamed 'Total Destruction' against the terrorists using 69 Sukhoi fighter jets,

Tupolev 160 bombers,

submarines and warships deployed in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Russian grouping will be supported by S-400 missile defense systems deployed in Syria and the Moskva guided missile cruiser outfitted with S-300F Fort anti-air systems off the coast of Latakia.

------------

Syria is now too well defended to be simply overrun:

A high-ranking officer within the joint operation room in Damascus (consisting of Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah) said “Damascus received sets of S -300 advanced Russian missiles, ready to enter active service.

Soon, Syria will announce that any country using the airspace without coordinating with Damascus will be viewed as hostile and will shoot the jet (s) without warning.

Those willing to fight terrorism and coordinate with the military leadership will be granted safe corridors”.

In another development, according to the same source, “Iran is preparing two squadrons of Sukhoi to engage the war in Syria.

These will be stationed at the T4 Syrian military airport in Homs, very close to Palmyra (Tadmur), previously known as Tiyas.

The Iranian Air Force will join the Russian Air Force in their war against extremist terrorist Takfeerees in Syria”.

The Russian are said to increase the numbers of their jets in Syria to 96.

Together with Iran's then 24 jets of the Su-24 type in Tiyas and the Syrian air force the fighter capability of that force is quite noteable.

There are of course also the anti-air missiles on the ground:

Airports are protected by Pantsyr S1 short range systems.

There are TOR M1/M2 medium range anti-air missile systems.

The Syrian S-300, the Russian S-400 in Latakia and the additional S-300s on board of the Moskva near the Syrian coast are long range systems and would make an attack very costly.

The U.S. tends to avoids attacking countries with competent air defense and Syria has by now an excellent one.

The way through Syria is closed.

The Iraqis will not allow more U.S. troops on their ground.

They reasonably believe that the U.S. is on the side of

I know I sound like a broken record, but this is the perfect time for us to get in on this game, especially with the French and Germans committed. Why not send our best squadron of SU-30's and our best equipped Mirage 2000 squadron? Surely we can keep such a small force maintained well enough to avoid accidents? The precision ATG capabilities of these aircraft exceed most of what the Russians have over there.

We could limit ourselves to high-altitude bombing with SU-30's providing air cover (and bristling with AAM's). This wouldn't cost much, especially if we roll ourselves into the Russian air-tasking order (to simplify air traffic control and other issues). Are the logistics really that daunting for such a deployment? We do huge war games and drop vast quantities of ordnance on empty deserts; we mobilized half the army on our border for no purpose in 2002; we even launched an unnecessary war in Sri Lanka baxk in the 80's... heck just a few years back we had sage BRF-ites clamoring for an Indian deployment to US-occupied Iraq (!!!) and you guys are gun-shy now? If ever there was a cheap opportunity to get valuable experience, test platforms and weapons, and build lasting alliances, this is it.

Again, just my opinion; I doubt GOI is even considering this.

Sorry,, but i have to it a giant

-M

kit · Post by **kit** » 04 Dec 2015 23:59

India has absolutely nothing to gain from getting involved in that mess .... *for now*

..lets see who s going to win and choose that side and do some *economic reconstruction* that can bring some billions into the country !

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 05 Dec 2015 00:06

Where is the chirkut Behn ki moon??

‘Hostile act:’ Iraqi PM denounces US ground forces deployment on Iraq’s territory - Dec 04, 2015

“The Iraqi government confirms its firm and categorical rejection of any action of this kind issued by any country [that] violates our [Iraq’s] national sovereignty,”Al-Abadi also said in the statement.

Baghdad “did not request any side... to send ground forces to Iraq,” he added

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 05 Dec 2015 00:17

he's also insisting that the Kurds can't attack Raqqa. they have to attack Mosul.

Like he controls the situation or something. A regular Rommel desert fox he is('nt).

Actually he's just mouthing what Iran wants him to say.

pay no attention to the puppet.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 05 Dec 2015 00:40

Agree, YNKannan ji. Bombing to smithereens any mobs that displays tendencies of ISIL, not differentiating between good/bad terrorists while at it, logistics of such and such and therein - all could be learnt as it is now. Russians are sending boots on ground, too. A few pages back there was another video wherein Russian diplomat stating that mobs who walk/talk like terrorists are terrorists, and that EU/US never gave info about good rebels to begin with!!!!! No BS about moderate rebels must be entertained.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 05 Dec 2015 01:09

johneeG wrote:Israel, Saudi, Turkey and Egypt are on the US side. Iran, Iraq, and Syria are on the Russia side.

Israel is neutral. It hates Hezbollah and Iran but is not in love with ISIS either. Netanyahu understands how jews/Israel are hated by muslims no matter shias or sunnis and has stayed away from this. Its strikes in Syria against Hezbollah/Syria should be seen as defensive strikes. If ISIS gets the capability to fire some rockets into Israel, Tel Aviv will hit them too.
You should hear Sultan Erdogan talk. He is a sunni and not even an arab. And accuses jews for coup in Egypt and defeat of his party in elections and what not. The accusations that Israel is on the Sunni & American side comes from Shia side, IMHO, to discredit the Sunni side among the brainless muslims.
Netanyahu has built nice relationship with Russia and the two states are respecting each other despite using their forces in such close proximity. He has acted very sane.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 05 Dec 2015 01:13

TSJones wrote:he's also insisting that the Kurds can't attack Raqqa. they have to attack Mosul.

Like he controls the situation or something. A regular Rommel desert fox he is('nt).

Actually he's just mouthing what Iran wants him to say.

pay no attention to the puppet.

Fortunately, no one in the region is giving much attention to you guys. We all know about the American mouth.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 05 Dec 2015 07:13

Y. Kanan wrote:
I know I sound like a broken record, but this is the perfect time for us to get in on this game, especially with the French and Germans committed. Why not send our best squadron of SU-30's and our best equipped Mirage 2000 squadron? Surely we can keep such a small force maintained well enough to avoid accidents? The precision ATG capabilities of these aircraft exceed most of what the Russians have over there.

We could limit ourselves to high-altitude bombing with SU-30's providing air cover (and bristling with AAM's). This wouldn't cost much, especially if we roll ourselves into the Russian air-tasking order (to simplify air traffic control and other issues). Are the logistics really that daunting for such a deployment? We do huge war games and drop vast quantities of ordnance on empty deserts; we mobilized half the army on our border for no purpose in 2002; we even launched an unnecessary war in Sri Lanka baxk in the 80's... heck just a few years back we had sage BRF-ites clamoring for an Indian deployment to US-occupied Iraq (!!!) and you guys are gun-shy now? If ever there was a cheap opportunity to get valuable experience, test platforms and weapons, and build lasting alliances, this is it.

Again, just my opinion; I doubt GOI is even considering this.

Personally, I don't think this is in India's best interests.

There are multiple reasons for my feeling that way, but this is now a war being fought between the west and Russia with each side bombing the other's proxies and unknown parties being hit from the air. Not a good thing to do.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 05 Dec 2015 07:49

Again, just my opinion; I doubt GOI is even considering this.

forget GOI - even most of BR does not consider it

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 05 Dec 2015 08:11

Y. Kanan wrote:Again, just my opinion; I doubt GOI is even considering this.

Here was my response to the same question from almost a month ago.

Satya_anveshi wrote:Y. Kanan ji,

Do we have any example of our external engagement in combat zones other than airlifting our people out of Iraq (largest ever eviction of people from war effected zone) and Yemen?

Most states engaged in that theater have direct stakes involved. The only major states that is indirectly involved because its stake is also indirectly related is China. It(China) is only to keep Mid-East theater complicated before US draws attention to South East/Far East. Everyone else, I repeat, everyone else is involved because of direct stakes (of 100s of B$).

One can make a case for our oil import bill is highest spend item and #1 drainer of forex, our stake also runs into 100s of B$ over time.

Before India even contemplates engaging in this theater, it needs to take the following baby steps (which I have seen no signs of it doing):

- Educate public of what is going on in middle-east. The milder way, the medium way, and the brute no-spin way; Demonstrate that *we* effing understand what is going on so next time *before* someone preaches to us (say Obama), we can at least say..."come on you idiot...don't insult our intellect..don't we know how many you guys killed in Syria and Iraq..."

- Identify different counter balancing forces that can play a role should the middle-east situation comes to play in our home turf

- empower some of the ones on good side; give visible indications that bad guys are taken out so future possibility is weakened and investments in that direction are curtailed

- Even if staying neutral, say that we stand ready to help...right now, we don't even have observer status in the vienna talks (includes 20 nations) and we dream of security council veto carrying member which needs global conflict resolution expertise

- we can definitely offer rehabilitation mgmt efforts (affected and refugees) and get a foot in the door. If the stakes of the game is in trillions what type of banias are we to keep all aloof of this.

- Our total silence on ISIS atrocities including rapes, murder, genocide, selling kids and women for few dimes and all this despite constant attacks on our civilizational/cultural character needs to stop; Can't we educate present day Marathas/Sikhs/all hindus in general about what ISIS is doing to Kurda, Yezedis, shiites, is what our people have experienced too and how we must be proud of our ancestors that we still stand high as dharmics despite all that.

- are we drawing parallels to the destruction of cultural heritage in Syria/Iraq with our own. Hundreds of those (if not thousands) still exist in dilapidated form in our midst crying for the need to reconstruct and restore them to past glory.

- can we use the ISIS atrocities as parallel to blunt the cutting edge of the sword that is affecting us internally.

Not all of this needs to be done by govt unless there is no capability in civil society/NGO/think-tank to do it, which seems to be the case.

mohanty · Post by **mohanty** » 05 Dec 2015 09:22

Those armchair generals considering involving India in bombing in Syria should create a fund and do donations to pay for that expenditure and any contingency arising out of that.

Rest of the people's tax money shouldn't be used in foreign puppet wars where India isn't directly threatened.

Bhurishrava wrote: Israel is neutral.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 05 Dec 2015 09:49

TSJones wrote:he's also insisting that the Kurds can't attack Raqqa. they have to attack Mosul.

Is the YPG even close enough to Raqqa to mount any serious offensive? Kurds and IRNG claim that if it wasn't for US meddling, they would have cleaned up ISIS from Mosul. Unkil saving ISIS skin in Iraq?