

Taiwan High Speed Railway, built using the same Japanese technology, same rolling stock (slightly modified in appearance) and running a distance of 350 km- ticket prices are LESS THAN HALF that of Shinkansen fare between Tokyo and Osaka. Heck, the fare between Osaka and Nagoya (which is less than the distance between Tapiei and Kaoshung) is much higher than the THR fare.chetak wrote:cost of labor and electricity is a very temporary phenomena. Both will rise rapidly as living conditions and aspirations and cost of living improves/increases.geeth wrote:The bullet train ticket costs in Japan are comparable to.air tickets. But in India they are likely to be cheaper because 1) the air tickets are comparatively costlier, 2) labour is cheaper 3) electric power, which is a major contributor of operating cost will be cheaper.
Ultimately, it all depends on volume of traffic and how greedy the operator is...but the rates have to be low for it to succeed, IMO less than low cost air ticket.
no one can accurately project for 2023 or beyond other than out of some academic interest. There are so many variables.
major airline costs are in dollars, even in India.
Chetak, in air crashes, head-on collisions are the rarest of rare due to technology that prevents it. In HSR, collisions and derailments are the biggest killers. The same technology measures can be used to minimize or eliminate those. Japan has had a crash free run of HSRs for decades.chetak wrote: By all means, have it your way, saar.
I am not sure AI/IA made a profit for more than a decade now and will not make one for the next 10 years as well. However, the nice thing is, you can sell off the AI/IA assets (largely planes and stuff), liquidate assets and exit.chetak wrote:^^^^^^^
This will be an extra premium service. Politically, they may not be able to price it very high without blow back from some "socialist" political parties. If made truly jantha class, the upwardly mobile folks may not use it.
tricky balance. Also, I don't think that any loss making service will survive in 2023.
I don't know why a fast train would fail in a populated and large country like India. As long as the train is as fast as the plane and cheaper, then the train will be easily preferred. I assume that running a train is any day cheaper than running planes. Of course, trains need lot of initial investment unlike the planes. But, planes need lot of fuel everyday. But, trains can carry many more people in one go than the planes. And each train journeys is cheaper than the journey of a plane, so the trains can make more journeys. The only sticking point is the huge initial investment in the infrastructure and to see whether there is a return on initial investment.vina wrote:I am not sure AI/IA made a profit for more than a decade now and will not make one for the next 10 years as well. However, the nice thing is, you can sell off the AI/IA assets (largely planes and stuff), liquidate assets and exit.chetak wrote:^^^^^^^
This will be an extra premium service. Politically, they may not be able to price it very high without blow back from some "socialist" political parties. If made truly jantha class, the upwardly mobile folks may not use it.
tricky balance. Also, I don't think that any loss making service will survive in 2023.
For this HSR white elephant, there is no liquidating anything and being able to get out. I am really really afraid that we will be saddled with some incredibly high cost white elephant that will suck this country dry to the bones and make us bankrupt.
Instead of HSR, airlines are a far more flexible and viable option for high speed travel. Heck, if that route doesn't do well for whatever reason, you can try another route or sell the plane off ! If a HSR route doesnt work for whatever reason, it is a massive disaster financially and there is always the pressure of having it subsidised and run at a loss anyways.
This kind of idiotic decisions is what makes me very very afraid for India. If Modi had any sense he would get the Freight Corridor implemented fully and quickly , but no, he has to have an Indira/Nehru kind of white elephant to his name at the expense of bankrupting the country.
You are comparing apples to oranges. In Japan you have a highly disciplined , law abiding society where people follow rules and have far greater civic sense.SSundar wrote: Chetak, in air crashes, head-on collisions are the rarest of rare due to technology that prevents it. In HSR, collisions and derailments are the biggest killers. The same technology measures can be used to minimize or eliminate those. Japan has had a crash free run of HSRs for decades.
All other crash scenarios such as dead engine, stalling, flying into a mountain in low visibility, terrorist bombing, etc. are unlikely or more survivable in HSR.
feasibility study was done a number of times to revive AI too.Supratik wrote:The Japanese to the best of my info don't invest in white elephants. That is why a feasibility study was done.
A big difference is that the Japanese BUILT everything (including the last tiny nail) of their HSR system and cycled the money within the Japanese economy. Here we will be importing every little thing (including the rails, the Japanese sure as hell are not going to be buying the steel rails made by SAIL and the ballast and sleepers from IR facilities) and we will be paying through our nose in ForEx for all that.chetak wrote: A japanese feasibility is not the holy grail of project performance or even viability. After the japanese leave, the IR is the only backstop. They already have ready made excuses for everything.
Leaving out Maruti (which succeeded because they were given a monopoly and no competition allowed for close to 15 years), overwhelming majority of Japanese investments in India have been dreadful failures and have not made any money ! Other than Suzuki and Honda (in 2 wheelers, I am not sure their car business makes money), please name ONE large well known Japanese company that has invested big in India and made money!Supratik wrote:Fukushima is an accident. You are stretching the argument. AI feasibility study was done but never implemented. The Japanese have over the decades invested in a lot of projects in India and to the best of my knowledge majority are successful. There is no reason why HSR will not be successful in a populous and developing economy like India as long as the ticket prices are competitive with airfare. That was one of the purposes of feasibility study. My previous concern was regarding IR involvement in this but I believe this is going to be a different entity. Both IR and HSR can do their own things.
That is a bit rich, coming from someone who lives in a make believe world of fanciful assumptions , which i am bolding below.Supratik wrote:By that logic nothing built by Indians can be trusted. That is called schizophrenia. The Indian economy is going to be $6-7 trillion by 2023 when the HSR starts and the cost of this HSR is $14 billion over 50 years. I think this is irrational fear mongering.
I don't know why a fast train would fail in a populated and large country like India (duh.. the average per capita income in India is around $1000 and they can't afford it!). As long as the train is as fast as the plane and cheaper (it can't be and it isn't. Budget airlines are faster and cheaper than many HSRs for > 500km runs), then the train will be easily preferred. I assume that running a train is any day cheaper than running planes (you assume wrong). Of course, trains need lot of initial investment unlike the planes. But, planes need lot of fuel everyday (okay, so trains will need fuel only once a while , while on other times they run on air!). But, trains can carry many more people in one go than the planes. And each train journeys is cheaper than the journey of a plane, so the trains can make more journeys (planes are faster and make more journeys, HSR are as expensive if not more than budget airlines) . The only sticking point is the huge initial investment in the infrastructure and to see whether there is a return on initial investment (yeah...a big one)
Japanese money is very low cost (even if a lot of it is tied to Japanese supplier credit) and hence people run for it , just like most Mobile providers run to Chinese and their low cost vendor financing for Chinese equipment.Supratik wrote:I am talking of projects not companies. Japanese funds like JICA are one of the most sought after investment sources in India. Everyone from Mumbai to Mamata is running after them.
This high fixed cost HSR has all the hall marks of being a massive misadventure on the lines of Modi's Muhammad Bin Thuglaq moment. Far better to get the freight corridors in place which will massively reduce freight cost and under cut more expensive and less efficient road transport and have massive spin off efforts in industry , trade and economy. That is what we need now.You are being irrational saying that $14 billion over 50 yrs is going to bankrupt the country or that nothing built by Indians can be trusted.
yes, you got that right.Supratik wrote:Fukushima is an accident. You are stretching the argument. AI feasibility study was done but never implemented. The Japanese have over the decades invested in a lot of projects in India and to the best of my knowledge majority are successful. There is no reason why HSR will not be successful in a populous and developing economy like India as long as the ticket prices are competitive with airfare. That was one of the purposes of feasibility study. My previous concern was regarding IR involvement in this but I believe this is going to be a different entity. Both IR and HSR can do their own things.
no offense to anyone but welcome saar, as one of the saner voices. what you suggest is eminently doable and mostly in the remaining time left, except for the new tracks, which will of course, take a bit longer.hnair wrote:Amtrak's Acela is a great example of a fast-train which wont break the bank, but does the job with less money than true HSR. They share tracks with normal trains and can run on upgraded tracks (not highly expensive full HSR spec tracks)
Speeding up current tracks via efficient signalling + dedicated separate tracks (even if not the superb specs of DFW, but aligned a bit far from denser urban areas) for freight would help keep costs down. Route even the long distance express trains to these separate tracks, to byepass smaller cities and we can buffer up any delays caused by slower goods movements, local train prioritization etc. The current existing tracks can run MEMU for inter-district travel and faster Acela types for inter-city travel upto 600 kms. Right now, HSR costs are a bit too high and might not be viable in lots of places to implement.
I think you are replying to the wrong poster. This was my post.vina wrote:I don't know why a fast train would fail in a populated and large country like India (duh.. the average per capita income in India is around $1000 and they can't afford it!). As long as the train is as fast as the plane and cheaper (it can't be and it isn't. Budget airlines are faster and cheaper than many HSRs for > 500km runs), then the train will be easily preferred. I assume that running a train is any day cheaper than running planes (you assume wrong). Of course, trains need lot of initial investment unlike the planes. But, planes need lot of fuel everyday (okay, so trains will need fuel only once a while , while on other times they run on air!). But, trains can carry many more people in one go than the planes. And each train journeys is cheaper than the journey of a plane, so the trains can make more journeys (planes are faster and make more journeys, HSR are as expensive if not more than budget airlines) . The only sticking point is the huge initial investment in the infrastructure and to see whether there is a return on initial investment (yeah...a big one)
saar, the area is tsunami prone. Even the kindergarten kids there know it. The risk assessment was thoroughly and completely effed up, period.Supratik wrote:@vina,
All that can go on simultaneously. The DFCs are going to be massively expanded similar to the GQ and NSEW corridors. I don't think it is going to be a white elephant as long as the ticket prices are competitive with airfare and the line is eventually extended to Delhi.
Since neither you nor me can stop it now, we can come back after 10 yrs and discuss whether it is a white elephant or not.
@chetak,
The best feasibility study can be outdone by the worst disaster. What you are talking about is implementation which is going to be a challenge and I agree on it.
Why not just say the obvious that you've been implying across 2-3 pages: "bullet train scam!" ?chetak wrote:no one seems to have made any credible analysis so far. It's a very complex, niche project and many project variables and risk factors are unknown to the aam jantha.
Maybe, the feasibility report will surface sometime in the public domain, even if it is just the bare bones version, just enough to get some guru started off on the right track.
Chetak, most of the pro-HSR posters on this thread are NOT insisting on creating exclusive HSR-only tracks. The assumption here is that if you built broad gauge tracks that can carry a certain weight at 350 KMPH, the same tracks would support slower passenger or freight trains at lower speeds. It would be a fundamental requirement to ensure maximum utilization of an expensive resource. The tracks and signaling need to be reusable.chetak wrote: no offense to anyone but welcome saar, as one of the saner voices. what you suggest is eminently doable and mostly in the remaining time left, except for the new tracks, which will of course, take a bit longer.
oh they do. their own white elephant shinkasen has grounded their economy for years.Supratik wrote:The Japanese to the best of my info don't invest in white elephants. That is why a feasibility study was done.
why not count initial investments??johneeG wrote:
{quote="vina"}
I don't know why a fast train would fail in a populated and large country like India (duh.. the average per capita income in India is around $1000 and they can't afford it!). As long as the train is as fast as the plane and cheaper (it can't be and it isn't. Budget airlines are faster and cheaper than many HSRs for > 500km runs), then the train will be easily preferred. I assume that running a train is any day cheaper than running planes (you assume wrong). Of course, trains need lot of initial investment unlike the planes. But, planes need lot of fuel everyday (okay, so trains will need fuel only once a while , while on other times they run on air!). But, trains can carry many more people in one go than the planes. And each train journeys is cheaper than the journey of a plane, so the trains can make more journeys (planes are faster and make more journeys, HSR are as expensive if not more than budget airlines) . The only sticking point is the huge initial investment in the infrastructure and to see whether there is a return on initial investment (yeah...a big one){/quote}
I think you are replying to the wrong poster. This was my post.
- Trains run on electricity unlike the planes which need a lot of special oil(quite costly). So, I am assuming that overall, trains are cheaper to run without counting the initial investment.
- My impression is that the airlines don't seem to be making much profit because air-travel is extremely costly in terms of fuel. Trains are much more cheaper in terms of fuel. If there is a comparable speed achieved by the trains, then the trains will be cheaper in the long run. Each train journey will be cheaper and can carry many more passengers than an air trip. So, overall each train trip will make more money than an air trip and cost less without counting the initial investment.
- These fast trains seem to be about as fast as an average domestic plane including all the waiting at the airports and other associated time requirements.
- About per capita income: well, the ticket pricing will get adjusted according to the affordability. The same applies to domestic airlines also. If domestic airlines are feasible, then the fast trains are also feasible. Surely, these trains would be much more profitable than domestic airlines(fast trains are competing with domestic airlines which are in deep losses). And don't forget that India is projected to rise.
civil works : $2.4 billion
track works: $2.0 billion
E&M works: $5.2 billion
Depot: $460 million
rolling Stock : $524 million
Engg service: $426 million
Admin cost: $213 million
Contingency: $544 million
Grand total : $11.8 billion
What are these "initial investments" the Indian public will make for this specific project, out of public money ?chetak wrote:The initial investment in infrastructure for both railway and airways are made by the Indian public.
Well, Jayanagar and Basavangudi are worth "preserving" and well built, but when people find a tree or a wall or an empty plot of land, they urinate there and also dump garbage!SSundar wrote:We already know that Indians do not spit and urinate in the middle of our mega-malls. How did that happen? When you build something worth preserving, the people change their behavior.
Very true sir. Because of the piddly single line between Mumbai and bangalore , presently train takes 24 hrs. Next affordable way is bus which is 18 hrs. Next is plane which is 1.5 hrs. So there is a hugh gap between 1.5 hrs and 18 hrs which can be filled up by either HSR which might take 8 hrs for 1000 km @ 120 kmph average or say shinkansen at 200 kmph average in 5 hours.prasannasimha wrote:If anything many would prefer to get on a fast train.If I could reach Mumbai from Bangalore or Ahmadabad in 3-4 hours it would be faster than going to the airport ,security check etc etc and then the reverse process to get out of the airport. If I could reach Chennai in an hour from Bangalore and vice versa most people would actually prefer that to a plane.