The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Dec 2015 18:44

if they have captured khan touman, the JN defence of the highway becomes very tough and a general advance and engulfing of the highway can be expected as SAA can attack from behind....JN would be forced to withdraw more south and west for safety.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Dec 2015 18:46

salma footage here showing terrain..its like shillong plateau with hills nearby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6MJohdhLZs

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2015 18:48

salma is HQ of chechen and caucasus battalion of Nusra. Apparently the landscape is very similar to that back home.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 20 Dec 2015 19:26

^^^ If that is the case, Russians will pay special attention to Salma.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 20 Dec 2015 21:36

Seymour M. Hersh on US intelligence sharing in the Syrian war:

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n01/seymour-m- ... o-military

Military to Military
Seymour M. Hersh on US intelligence sharing in the Syrian war

Barack Obama’s repeated insistence that Bashar al-Assad must leave office – and that there are ‘moderate’ rebel groups in Syria capable of defeating him – has in recent years provoked quiet dissent, and even overt opposition, among some of the most senior officers on the Pentagon’s Joint Staff. Their criticism has focused on what they see as the administration’s fixation on Assad’s primary ally, Vladimir Putin. In their view, Obama is captive to Cold War thinking about Russia and China, and hasn’t adjusted his stance on Syria to the fact both countries share Washington’s anxiety about the spread of terrorism in and beyond Syria; like Washington, they believe that Islamic State must be stopped.

The military’s resistance dates back to the summer of 2013, when a highly classified assessment, put together by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, then led by General Martin Dempsey, forecast that the fall of the Assad regime would lead to chaos and, potentially, to Syria’s takeover by jihadi extremists, much as was then happening in Libya. A former senior adviser to the Joint Chiefs told me that the document was an ‘all-source’ appraisal, drawing on information from signals, satellite and human intelligence, and took a dim view of the Obama administration’s insistence on continuing to finance and arm the so-called moderate rebel groups. By then, the CIA had been conspiring for more than a year with allies in the UK, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to ship guns and goods – to be used for the overthrow of Assad – from Libya, via Turkey, into Syria. The new intelligence estimate singled out Turkey as a major impediment to Obama’s Syria policy. The document showed, the adviser said, ‘that what was started as a covert US programme to arm and support the moderate rebels fighting Assad had been co-opted by Turkey, and had morphed into an across-the-board technical, arms and logistical programme for all of the opposition, including Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State. The so-called moderates had evaporated and the Free Syrian Army was a rump group stationed at an airbase in Turkey.’ The assessment was bleak: there was no viable ‘moderate’ opposition to Assad, and the US was arming extremists.
...

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Dec 2015 02:54

The above article seems to have major gasbaggery going on where all powerful JCS claim credit for all that Assad did. This is comedy gold (IMHO)

The Joint Chiefs let it be known that in return the US would require four things: Assad must restrain Hizbullah from attacking Israel; he must renew the stalled negotiations with Israel to reach a settlement on the Golan Heights; he must agree to accept Russian and other outside military advisers; and he must commit to holding open elections after the war with a wide range of factions included.

So now the JCS wanted Assad to take Russian help. Sure...

Looks like Khan taking credit for other peoples work.

But if its true it shows the Khan admin is truly completely dysfunctional. Elected prez being undercut by his military!

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 21 Dec 2015 06:36

^^
I would not discount what Seymour Hersh has written. The man has a better than average record of investigative journalism. His expose on the killing of Osama bin Laden is quite revealing

The killing of Osama bin Laden

It's also interesting that Russia launched operations in Syria on the heels of the retirement of JCS Dempsey in September 2015. Dempsey has been mentioned in Hersh's article as the leading proponent from the US side in US-Russian military information exchanges. Supposedly Dempsey's successor was not going to follow through.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Dec 2015 07:22

even that obl story seems like a pack of lies intended to shore up TSP H&D. yes, hersh did the my lai expose, but muvh water under the bridge...

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 21 Dec 2015 08:21

250 stores in Ankara’s Ottoman Public Bazaar burn down - Dec 20, 2015
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/250-st ... sCatID=341

Some 250 stores in Ankara’s Ottoman Public Bazaar have burned to the ground in a fire of unknown origin.

The fire, which rapidly spread across the Ottoman bazaar in the Keçiören district of Turkey’s capital, started at 4:30 a.m. on Dec. 20.

Fire brigade crews were immediately dispatched to the scene of the incident, however flames quickly engulfed the compound as the stores inside the bazaar were built side-by-side.

The fire was accompanied by small explosions, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported, while a person who ran inside the bazaar was taken out by security officials.

In the meantime, riot police closed side roads leading to the bazaar, Cihan News Agency said.

Tradesmen quoted by Cihan defined the origins of the fire as “shady” and questioned how the fire spread so quickly despite the fact that three security officials were on duty inside the bazaar.

“No one knows how it burned down but the fire wouldn’t spread as quickly from an electrical contact,” a shopkeeper named Haydar Yeşilyurt said.

Yeşilyurt also claimed the material damages to store owners could near $345 million.

“No one knows how the fire broke out. It happened in an instant. It is shady,” a shop owner whose identity was not disclosed was quoted as saying.

The Ottoman Public Bazaar operated as the “Russian Bazaar” until 1994, when Turgut Altınok from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) was elected the district mayor of Keçiören. Altınok later changed the bazaar’s name to the “Ottoman” bazaar, which now operates with 252 stores according to its website.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 21 Dec 2015 08:30

Not to side track the discussion but in the context of OBL assassination fiasco, the news relating to assasination of Gaddafi's family members got buried:

Libyan bombings sidelined by Bin Laden death news - May 03, 2011 (old news)
https://www.rt.com/news/bin-death-news-war/

Osama Bin Laden's death effectively buried the news of the NATO air strike on Colonel Gaddafi’s compound in Bab Azaziya, Libya, which killed his 29-year-old son, Saif al-Arab, and three grandchildren. They were buried in Tripoli on Monday.

All the children were said to be under 12 years old. The funeral was attended by several thousand people, AP reports.

But within 24 hours after the air strike, the US president announced the death of the world's most wanted terrorist – news which overshadowed anything coming from Libya.

“The idea of extrajudicial assassinations, just days after NATO attempted to assassinate Gaddafi and ended up killing his son and grandchildren – once again, we see another type of extrajudicial assassination going on, which, of course, is an international war crime,” says James Corbett, editor of the Corbett Report. “But in this case it's ok, because it's a boogeyman everyone loves to hate.”

The Coalition commanders have protested they are in full compliance with the UN Security Council resolution on Libya and only target military objects, insisting they are not targeting any person in particular. However, two recent air strikes were targeting the known whereabouts of Gaddafi.

“This was an attack on civilian structure. This was Gaddafi’s personal compound. They murdered three of his grandchildren [and] one of his sons,” Stephen Lendman, a radio host and author, told RT. “The idea is to kill him. It was a war crime. But of course, being in Libya at all is a war crime. All of the complicit NATO countries are committing war crimes every single day, attacking civilian targets, killing civilians.”

The bombings sparked riots, with Gaddafi supporters storming the Italian and British embassies in protest. Some believe, should the Coalition forces continue on their chosen course in Libya, the situation will go from bad to worse.

“NATO’s activities have only strengthened the loyalty and resolve of Gaddafi supporters,” independent journalist Moe Seager explained. “For each bomb that’s dropped on Tripoli and other Gaddafi loyalists’ strongholds, it’s just the psychology of war anywhere: when you bomb a resisting group, the resolve gets stronger.”

And as history shows, the situation in Libya may follow a course already familiar to Western politicians.

“We have to give full credit to the US political establishment and the military establishment that have been always very creative in finding enemies,” a director at Project for Pakistan in the 21st Century, Ahmed Quraishi, told RT. “First, it was the Soviet Union, then it was the Russian Federation, then Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, and now of course we have Muammar Gaddafi, and the next one will come most definitely when the need arises.” {clearly reporter of this article didn't have a clue about what was simmering in Syria at that time}

Moscow has expressed concern over the situation in Libya numerous times, saying the Coalition is using excessive force. But protests from Russia, India and China, just to name a few, have been ignored by the West, and while NATO decides on its ultimate goal, no one knows how many more lives will be lost.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Dec 2015 08:41

this map is a year old, but gives an idea of libya becoming the new syria, with 10s of militias and factions carving it up.
once the new caliphate takes root there, already in process, southern europe is going to feel the heat.

unlike syria, libya is a gigantic country, bordered by other giant countries and the endless tracts of the sahara.
nobody can surveil let alone dominate such a wide area.

https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KseU31 ... crE0.0.png

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Dec 2015 10:07

Syria: Russian air strikes kill at least 73 people in rebel-held Idlib
Human Rights Watch said Russia's bombing campaign has included extensive use of cluster munitions
Suleiman Al-Khalidi

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 80741.html

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/d ... west-syria

Moscow says that its airstrikes target Islamic State militants but rebels and residents say they are causing hundreds of civilian casualties through indiscriminate bombing well away from the frontlines. Residents say they distinguish Russian planes that fly at high altitudes from Syrian helicopters that mainly drop indiscriminate barrel bombs at much lower heights.

Idlib city has been largely spared the intensified aerial bombing campaign witnessed in rural areas after a United Nations-brokered ceasefire deal was reached in September. The deal allowed for the withdrawal of rebel fighters holed up in a border village near Lebanon in return for the evacuation of civilians from two Shia towns of Kefraya and al-Foua under rebel siege in Idlib province.

The deal included a tacit understanding that Idlib city also fell under the ceasefire arrangements, allowing thousands displaced from northern Syria to shelter there.

In a sign the ceasefire had broken, one rebel source said rebels had begun to shell the two towns again. Residents reported families fleeing with some of their belongings to the safety of camps along the Turkish border.

Separately, the Syrian army – with the backing of Russian air power – said on Sunday that it had seized the rebel-held town of Khan Touman in southern Aleppo, a major gain that opened the way for advances further to the west in Idlib province.

The advances brought the army only a few kilometres from the major rebel-controlled Aleppo-Damascus highway, whose capture would be a big boost to the Syrian army.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 21 Dec 2015 10:22

Karan M wrote:The above article seems to have major gasbaggery going on where all powerful JCS claim credit for all that Assad did. This is comedy gold (IMHO)

The Joint Chiefs let it be known that in return the US would require four things: Assad must restrain Hizbullah from attacking Israel; he must renew the stalled negotiations with Israel to reach a settlement on the Golan Heights; he must agree to accept Russian and other outside military advisers; and he must commit to holding open elections after the war with a wide range of factions included.

So now the JCS wanted Assad to take Russian help. Sure...

Looks like Khan taking credit for other peoples work.

But if its true it shows the Khan admin is truly completely dysfunctional. Elected prez being undercut by his military!

So, basically, this whole thing was about Golan Heights? As long as Syria agrees to let Golan Heights be with Israel, Syrian conflict can be resolved?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Dec 2015 10:34

This looks like an anti-Syria/Assad/West/Soothi entity hit because the so-called Syrian "rebels" are getting a pasting at the moment from the Russian air and Syrian troop ground offensives.Hiz is helping the Assad regime,so the hit is a tit-for-tat response from the vested interests who want regime change in Syria. The obvious finger-pointing will be against Israel,no pals of the Hiz, The truth may lie in between.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 80491.html
Samir Qantar: Hezbollah leader 'killed in Damascus rocket strike'
Qantar is believed to have been a key leader in Hezbollah and in September the US State Department desginated him as a terrorist
Ashley Cowburn

Rockets fired from Lebanon hit southern Israel today, hours after an apparent Israeli strike in Syria killed Samir Kantar, a senior Hezbollah operative who spent three decades in prison for carrying out one of the most notorious terrorist attacks in Israeli history.

Lebanese officials told the Associated Press news agency that the rockets were fired from an area south of the Lebanese port city of Tyre. No injuries or damage were reported. Israeli government officials declined to confirm or deny the reports but did not conceal that they were satisfied with the death of Kantar. Ron Ben-Yishai, an Israeli military commentator, wrote on the Ynet news agency website that the Lebanese reports “more or less reflect the facts in the field”.

Israel held Kantar responsible for spearheading a Hezbollah effort to open up a new battle front against it from the Syrian-held area of the Golan Heights. Without commenting on whether Israel was behind the assassination, Shaul Shay, a former deputy director of Israel’s National Security Council, told The Independent: “He was in the [Israeli] sights so as to prevent future attacks. Israel works consistently to foil the development of a terrorist body in the Golan Heights.”

Hezbollah threatens ‘long war’ as Beirut reels from deadly bomb attack
Iranian troops and Hezbollah 'massing in Syria for ground operation'
Leaked CIA role in killing of Hezbollah chief Imad Moughniyeh timed to

According to AP, Hezbollah said that Kantar – known in Lebanon as “the Dean of Lebanese Prisoners” – was killed along with eight others in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana on Saturday night. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV said two Israeli warplanes that violated Syrian airspace fired four long-range missiles at a residential building. The Syrian state news agency, SANA, said Kantar was killed in a “terrorist and hostile” missile attack.

Al Mayadeen, the Lebanese television station said that Farhan al-Shaalan, a senior Hezbollah commander, was also killed in the air raid, together with an aide to Kantar. According to Al-Manar TV, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah chief, is set to make a televised statement this evening, which is believed to be related to the death of Kantar.

Kantar, a Druze Arab, was sentenced by Israel to three life terms for an attack he carried out as a 16-year-old in 1979, as a member of the Palestine Liberation Front.

He killed a policeman and kidnapped and killed a man, Danny Haran, and his four-year-old daughter, after they crossed into the northern coastal town of Nahariya by sea from Lebanon.

Israel said Kantar bashed the little girl’s head with a rifle butt until she died, but he maintained she had been killed in crossfire. Haran’s wife, Smadar, accidentally smothered their two-year-old daughter as they hid in a crawl space during the attack. She told

Israel’s Army Radio that Kantar’s killing was “historic justice”
Middle East burns as Hezbollah delivers US a fiery warning

Kantar was freed in July 2008 with four other Hezbollah guerrillas, in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers held by the Lebanese group. During a visit to Damascus that month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad awarded Kantar the country’s highest medal.

Mr Shay, a scholar at the Institute for Policy and Strategy Interdisciplinary Centre in Herzliya, near Tel Aviv, said that if Israel killed Kantar “the dominant consideration would have been the role he would play in the future and not what he did in the past”.

Israel has been reported to have carried out several strategic strikes in Syria since the start of the civil war there in 2011, all believed to have hit Hezbollah weaponry or personnel, although it rarely claims the strikes.

Yesterday’s strike was the first assassination inside Syria attributed to Israel since Russia joined air operations in Syria on 30 September. Moshe Ya’alon, Israel’s Defence Minister, has said that Russia and Israel have worked out an open communication system “to prevent misunderstandings” between the two countries.

Last January, in another air strike widely attributed to Israel, Hezbollah senior operations officer Jihad Mughniyeh – also implicated in organising Hezbollah operations in the Golan – was killed on the Syrian side of the heights, along with several other Hezbollah members and a prominent Iranian general.

On 1 December Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed from his usual silence over Israeli moves in Syria, saying: “We are acting in Syria from time to time to prevent it from becoming a front against us.”

"Rebel" angst,at Ru attacks.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/o ... ver-a-year

With little access to opposition areas of Syria, aid agencies say it is next to impossible to quantify how many civilians have been displaced by the intensified fighting. Civic leaders in Idlib and Hama say thousands of families have left for the Turkish border, intending to join the migration route to Europe.

“They are not running from [Isis],” said Mahmoud Qubaisi, a resident of the Hama countryside. They stayed because there is no Isis here. We’re the ones who chased the terrorists away more than a year and a half ago. Not the Russians.”

Using anti-tank missiles supplied by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Tajamul Ala’Azza and a second group whose members had been vetted by the CIA, Liwa Suqour al-Jabal, this week claimed to have damaged or destroyed more than 10 regime tanks and armoured troop carriers near Hama, and to have repelled several ground attacks in areas hit by airstrikes.

An official from Liwa Suqour al-Jabal confirmed that the group is supported by states that are “friends of Syria” – a list topped by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

“If their war is by planes, we can’t do anything about it, but we challenge the Russians to come fight us face to face in the liberated lands, and we want the friends of Syria to supply us with long-range and anti-aircraft weapons.”

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Dec 2015 10:37

johneeG wrote:
Karan M wrote:The above article seems to have major gasbaggery going on where all powerful JCS claim credit for all that Assad did. This is comedy gold (IMHO)
So, basically, this whole thing was about Golan Heights? As long as Syria agrees to let Golan Heights be with Israel, Syrian conflict can be resolved?

The new found oil and gas treasure in Golan Heights.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-oi ... n-heights/
The meeting in Jerusalem for the approval of oil shale exploration near Beit Shemesh lasted 10 hours. Pitting environmentalists against Israel Energy Initiatives, the company that wants to extract the oil shale, the meeting was filled with highly technical presentations about oil engineering, thermodynamics, and a process called “In Situ Thermal Recovery,” which involves drilling heater wells down to the oil shale layer.n this process, over a period of three years, the rock is heated to a temperature of over 300° Celsius. This abridges the geological process that would normally take place over hundreds of years. As the temperatures rise in the rock, liquid oil and natural gas are released, which, after a condensation period, would produce about two-thirds liquid oil and one-third natural gas. Israel Energy Initiatives (IEI) estimates that there are approximately 40-60 billion barrels of oil located 200-400 meters below the surface of the Elah Valley. IEI said that the process, an experimental one, will not endanger the environment because most of the work would take place underground, leaving a very small footprint. Additionally, it says impermeable rock layers above and below the oil shale level will protect the underground water tables.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 10:49

Jhujar wrote:
johneeG wrote: So, basically, this whole thing was about Golan Heights? As long as Syria agrees to let Golan Heights be with Israel, Syrian conflict can be resolved?
The new found oil and gas treasure in Golan Heights.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-oi ... n-heights/

this can also be Israeli propaganda, there may well be nothing in golan heights. But this can be a good excuse to wage war and accuse Syria of provocation. Think along that angle as well.

-----

Assad's assasination is a very strong possibility given the intractable situation NATO+USA find themselves in, they are always on lookout for such 'game-changing shortcuts'.

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940929000973

Four Russian Fighter Jets to Escort President Assad's Plane in Visit to Tehran

TEHRAN (FNA)- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's plane will be escorted by four Russian fighter jets during his upcoming visit to Iran, reports said, adding that the US coalition has been alerted to stand down as the Russian jets will have the permission to fire at will at any incoming aircraft.
"Four strategic Russian fighter jets will accompany the plane carrying the Syrian president during the visit to and from Iran," the Lebanese al-Diyar daily reported on Sunday.

The newspaper also added that the Syrian president is due to travel to Tehran via the Iraqi airspace.

"The US-led international coalition's air command has been warned not to approach Bashar Assad's plane to avoid engagement," it said.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 10:57

Kerry is an amusing man, he thinks every country is like USA is ruled by deep state and the head-of-state is just a figurehead.

https://www.rt.com/news/326563-kerry-ru ... ine-libya/

‘US not after regime change in Syria, but Assad must go’ – Kerry to Russian TV

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 21 Dec 2015 11:19

If you want your dictator to stay, name him the king instead. The west likes them kings like in Jordania or Belgica.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 11:21

they like dictators, but not secular dictators who may actually care a bit about the people.

US plan not going as per agenda in Syrian Kurd areas.

Kurds are Mere Pawns of Washington and Ankara

http://journal-neo.org/2015/12/20/kurds ... nd-ankara/

The US administration, determined to overthrow the Damascus regime at any cost, has gone as far as to activate its ties and contacts with Syrian Kurds, who have been trying to maintain their neutrality amidst the Syrian civil war. The Democratic Union Party and its military wing—the People’s Protection Units, which are keeping the situation in Kurdish enclaves in Syria under control and successfully countering militants from radical Islamist groups, have upset Washington’s plans by refusing to fight Bashar al-Assad’s troops and demonstrating their eagerness to repel Turkish aggressors, should they try to cross Syrian border in the north. Since Ankara believes that the Democratic Union Party is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, banned in Turkey, it has repeatedly shelled the positions of the People’s Protection Units.

Realizing that since the beginning of the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces operation in Syria, Turkey has been losing its positions and is no longer controlling the situations on the Turkish-Syrian border as much as it used to, and that attempts to create a “buffer zone” under the auspices of Turkey in the north of Syria have failed, Washington decided to change its strategy and instead of supporting Kurdish militiamen from the air, has set about establishing dialogue with the Democratic Union Party, protecting Kurdish enclaves form the claims and attacks of Turkey at political and diplomatic levels, sending American military instructors and fighters–artillery observer from its special forces, and supplying Syrian Kurds with arms and equipment.

It is a known fact that back in mid-October of this year, Washington created a new “moderate Syrian opposition” under the name of “Syrian Democratic Forces,” incorporating armed gangs of a combined Arab-Kurdish Fajr al-Hurriya group. Soon after that, Americans initiated the establishment of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Syria in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan). And it turned out that Fajr al-Hurriya groups were meant to be the military force of this newly founded party. It seems that by taking these steps, Washington was trying to gather whatever was left from the failed Kurdish National Council, which had claimed the role of an organization representing interests of all Syrian Kurds, while collaborating with the “moderate Syrian opposition” and the West.

Ultimately, the US administration was nurturing plans of establishing (on the base of the Free Syrian Army) a new opposition to al-Assad that would unite Kurds, Syrian Turkmens, Assyrian Christians and all other groups not associated with the Islamic State or the Jabhat al-Nusra. But air strikes of Russian Aerospace Defense Forces and of the Syrian Armed Forces battered these groups as well as the armed gangs of Syrian Turkmens and Turkish nationalists.

Despite all efforts of the “transoceanic friends” to engage Kurds in an anti-al-Assad alliance, the leaders of Syrian Kurds explicitly stated that they are eager to participate in talks and discuss the future structure of the Syrian state, including the debates initiated by the opposition, and would continue fighting ISIS and other extremist groups, but only in the case that they have to defend their historic territory and lives of their tribesmen. Kurds underpin that they will be satisfied with any government as long as it grants Kurds the same rights and the same degree of freedom as to Arabs, and as long as this government does not challenge their status of the autonomy (that they acquired in struggle) and grants them the right of proportional representation in the bodies of the central authority. It does not seem that Kurds are willing to participate in offensives in Arab-Sunni provinces of Syria, or fight government troops, or take part in the liberation of the city of Raqqa (the de facto capital of ISIS).

no options anywhere .. Nuland ka muh isliye sooja hua tha ..

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 21 Dec 2015 11:28

No, no. They dont really like, like dictators. They put up with Herr Mubarak and Al Susu for the sake of ijrayeel. They put up with Musharraf to save Indiya from armagiyeddon of fizzayah. They are ok with Sultan Erdowaan but only because he keeps pieces in black sea. All for the bigger beniphit of hyu-manatee.

Now kings can come in robes or shalwars and they will always be welcomed with a bow. Every king is an aladeen. The more egg-jotik the better. You have got to have a kingdom in seeriya. All problems will rejolve over night. Its an out of the box solushan, like shah of persia or king of afghanistan.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 12:56

T-90 in Southern Aleppo @ 0.30 secs (from afar it looks just like T-72, an avg TOW operator would not know the difference from a distance, only when he fires and SHTORA and Arena come into picture there is a chance for TOW operator to get seriously screwed since he exposed his position)
some 'would-be-rulers' @ 5:00 mins
On around 5.20 mins you can see a dead rebel with blood splattered around his face wearing a black jacket with the Saudi insignia, two swords crossed around a palm tree.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Dec 2015 14:35

at 2.44 you can see someone firing an AK47 holding the magazine... just sayin'...

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 21 Dec 2015 16:09

^^^ It is a common error. though among the first things they teach at the rifle range is how to hold a fire arm properly.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Dec 2015 16:15

even small units of say 8 x 105mm light arty mounted on truckbeds and adequately resupplied each night with ammo from loader vehicles can make a huge diff in syria, less of these heroic rifleman/RPG stuff needed.

enemies can quickly be driven out fortified villages into the cold fields to shiver every night and get weaker.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 21 Dec 2015 16:52

Yes, more videos I see, more I am convinced, the SAA and allies are better doing arty battles. Ground troops come in once house to house starts. Another thing, I observed with tweets is that in some cases both SAA+ and terrorists declare a particular locality military before commencing hostilities there, giving residents a chance to leave. Mostly, in empty neighbourhoods, bomb the rats to 72 and move in.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 21 Dec 2015 17:27

Starting to think Putin's revenge may involve Armenia & Azerbaijan. Things have been heating up there.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/02/01/wo ... erer=&_r=0

Azerbaijan has embarked on a huge arms buildup and is backed by Turkey. Their publicly stated goal is to get back Nagorno-Karabahk and then all of Armenia. Is Putin hoping for renewed war there? Would be a good opportunity fir the Russians and the geography favors them. If Turkey intervenes so much the better.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 21 Dec 2015 17:31

Think I'm nuts? Look at recent news:
http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/karabakh/2471908.html

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Dec 2015 17:38

poking azeri's will be done by turkey
armenia by the russians

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 18:28

almost there .. in Palmyra

'Surprised and Confused' Daesh Fighters Flee Palmyra Area

09:15 20.12.2015
(updated 14:34 20.12.2015)
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Russian force and Hezbollah fighters have mounted a major offensive to liberate Palmyra, forcing "surprised and confused" Daesh militants to flee their fortifications and outposts close to the iconic ancient city, the Fars news agency reported.
Damascus-led forces are said to have come as close as 0.2 miles away from the Palmyra Castle, also known as Fakhr-al-Din al-Ma'ani, and 1.2 miles away from the Palmyra gate.
"The Syrian government forces' operation was so heavy that the ISIL terrorists left behind their military hardware and retreated fromthe battlefield," the media outlet reported, citing the Syrian army.

Daesh fighters, according to Fars, were "surprised and confused" by the speed and the scope of the offensive. The SAA killed scores of terrorists and destroyed Daesh military equipment in its latest operation.
A large-scale campaign to free Palmyra itself is expected to be launched shortly. Prior to liberating the city, the SAA plans to take control over al-Quaryatayn and Maheen regions.

Daesh, also known as ISIL, captured Palmyra in May and has since partially destroyed world-famous ruins. The terrorist group has also used the site for mass executions.

Lalmohan wrote:at 2.44 you can see someone firing an AK47 holding the magazine... just sayin'...

that's hezbollah.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 19:28

boy this hezbollah is at another level altogether ..

Impressive video of a hezbollah fighter dodging a TOW fired right toward his pick up truck. that was freaking close, amazing.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2015 20:15

Military Analysts Underline Russian T-90 Tanks Major Role in Syrian Army's Victory in Khan Touman

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940930001393

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Russian-made T-90 Tanks gave the Syrian army the upper hand in the battle against the militant groups across the Northern province of Aleppo, and played an outstanding role in its victory in Khan Touman, a senior military analyst said on Monday.
"The Syrian army’s use of the Russian manufactured T-90 tank played an integral and outstanding role during this battle, as its protective armor made it difficult for the enemy combatants to halt the army's advance," the analyst underlined.

On Sunday, the Syrian Army alongside the National Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters pushed the militant groups back form more territories in the Southwestern part of Aleppo province and regained full control over the town of Khan Touman, the main stronghold of the terrorist group of Jeish al-Fatah, on Sunday.

doesn't say 'how' though ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Dec 2015 22:34

artillery is the one major advantage the SAA can use given that manpower numbers , training, small arms are about the same on both sides.

they need to build up numbers , shells , trained people and find jugaad solns like bolting onto the back of rugged trucks and pickups for easier mobility than towed pieces. also 155mm artillery when used enmasse can be devastating.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Dec 2015 22:36

the pickup truck guy was clever...he saw it coming given the tow's long flight time , but delayed his move till the last possible moment to give the shooter no time to target him again.

pro level player.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Dec 2015 07:51

A point west of Khan Touman and another slightly South of that on the Dasmascus - Aleppo highway was captures by the SAA yesterday thus disrupting an important communication line between rebels.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 22 Dec 2015 08:28

I am slogging my way through Artemy Kalinovsky's "A Long Goodbye" which focuses on the Soviet end-game in their Afghanistan war. It is slow going because what he describes has been forcing me to rethink all I thought I knew of that conflict and its connections to current global geopolitics. I intend to write about this in the Afghanistan thread (inshallah in the near future), but there are very intriguing parallels with the situation in Syria right now, and I want to indulge in some piskology on what Putin may be thinking. So bear with me as I rewind back to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan to set the context.

In the beginning, there was unanimity among the big three players - Foreign Affairs, Defense, and KGB on the decision to intervene in Afghanistan. However, as the years passed and the problems continued to multiply, doubts began to grow, encouraged by the arrival of Gorbachov as General Secretary of the Politburo. This led to factions within the Soviet establishment, with the military favoring an accommodation with the rebels (particularly Ahmed Shah Mehsud and the Tajiks) followed by a pullout, while Foreign Affairs and KGB continued to hold out for continued support until a negotiated settlement was arrived at which enabled continued functioning of a stable Najibullah regime (and note that in setting this up, I have fast forwarded to about end of 1986 when Najibullah was installed as the President of Afghanistan). Through subsequent twists and turns, including Gorbachov's dismissal through an unsuccessful coup, one entity that stood steadfastly for support of Najibullah was the KGB. They ensured that Afghanistan continued to receive armaments, fuel, financial, and diplomatic support even after the Soviets left Afghanistan; importantly, KGB was instrumental in holding out against any settlement that called for Najib's removal prior to the establishment of any "National Unity" government. In early 1991, they had been successful in wearing down US insistence to Najib's removal, to the point where the then Secretary of State James Baker was softening US stance to accepting Najib's continuation in power until a unity government was installed. When Yeltsin became President of Russia, he withdrew support from Najib. This was really the capstone event that marked the last loss of credibility for Najib's rule; his credibility, his source of power, his leverage all unraveled and the (Communist) Republic of Afghanistan really entered into its death spiral.

Now I begin my piskology. What a young KGB officer at that time would have learned is that a positive outcome was still possible, even after the Soviet Union's demise, had the Russians continued the Soviet policy (heavily influenced by KGB) of steadfastly supporting their man. At that point, it was credibility and legitimacy that Najib need, that Russia could have provided at minimal cost but did not. That would have been a bitter lesson, and one which the KGB officer would have taken to heart as he rose to become Russia's president and confronted the possible demise of Russia's man in Syria.

So Putin, remembering the past experience, intervenes to shore up the beleaguered Assad regime, especially as the situation appears stalemated and the growth of ISIS focuses all players' thoughts on coming up with a unity government in Syria. The calculation would be that some amount of military force is necessary by the coalition supporting Assad, to ensure that he is not locked out of the peace talks. Is it working so far? Yes. There is increasing international recognition that Assad can continue until some alternative is worked out, much in the way Soviet Union would have wanted Najib to continue.

However, there is a potential spoiler here, much like Pakistan vis a vis Afghanistan - we are talking about Turkey, of course. Turkey can and probably will continue to take actions which will muddy the waters, because the current contours of a settlement will be very adverse for Turkey. For example, as part of the peace settlement, one can prognosticate a Shia/Alawite zone, a Kurd zone, and a Sunni zone. Compared with a Turkey friendly ISIS zone that gobbles most of the other zones, this is a distinct deterioration. So if Turkey prolongs the situation, the danger is that Putin's initiative will get stuck in a quagmire and second opinions will begin to crop up including within Russia. There is also a risk that Putin will overplay his hand and hold out for a lot more than is possible. So it remains to be seen if we will see a replay of Najib's fate or a modified outcome. In any case, my feeling is that the big plays right now are not the military actions but the diplomatic maneuvering in the UN and in Vienna.

I hope you found this to be an interesting and educative insight - if you did, please do get Kalinovsky's excellent work and go through it. I would love to see BRF discuss this more, especially in the Afghanistan thread.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 22 Dec 2015 10:07

YIP..this might help ease the slow going

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Dec 2015 10:16

An excellent post (bcoz I agree with it

)
I wonder whether Turkey can maintain a continuous terrorist funding and infiltration operation, with the Russians present. They may not have the infinite patience of GOI, or the stupidity blinkers of the American operation in Afghanistan. In 1990, the SU could not hit Pakistan - that was considered a red line for NATO. Today the US is having to send Dronacharyas to do what the SU would have done efficiently and thoroughly back then.

Turkey's equivalents of the RAPE are not, IMO, as corrupt and docile as their Paakjabi coujins. They are risking all to expose the ISIS operation already. As the war goes badly, I think Erdogan's credit will run out, and his support base will disintegrate into gang wars. What remains of civilization in Turkey, their dreams of being a EU member already dashed, will probably wake up and kick out the Islamists (dreaming here, is there ANY precedent of Islamists really getting kicked out? Is Egypt's kleptocracy non-Islamic?)

Also, Russia's job is not done until KSA is cut to size - there is no escape from that. I think Israel may find common cause with Putin on that aspect.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Dec 2015 10:25

^^^ Great insights Y.I.P. ji. Hopefully will be able to get my hands on the book. Putin is definitely firmer in approach on Syria than Gorbachev or Yeltsin ever were. It also appears that all Russian voices today are pro - Putin and Russia has also wizened to the Western propaganda game in the media.

On the Russian involvement in Syria, an interesting comment was made by the Jabahat Al Nusra chief in an interview recently (read it in translated tweets).He said, Russia has learnt its lessons from Afghanistan and has kept its goals focused and limited in Syria. I assume he meant the limited nature of involvement with only air assets and supply of arms to Syrian Assad regime.

A major differences to Syrian situation is actual presence of ground troops in Syria from countries like Iraq, Iran and Lebanon in support of Assad regime. This was not the case with Afghanistan where the soldiers dying were Russians. Another visible difference is the premium Russia is putting on the safety of its air assets in Syria. This air asset security has also benefited from the lack of MANPADs proliferating the theater of conflict. The only reason for this seems to be that both sides (Russian as well as US backed) are operating air assets in the same space and MANPADs can threaten both. High casualty count makes it more difficult to sustain interventionist deployments which is not the case with Syria for Russia.

The fallout of Afghanistan with subsequent rise of Jihadi Terrorism on the US will also manifest in the leeway and time the US has in forcing the Syrian issue.

Assessing the Syrian situation with the focus only on how Russia moves while leaving how the US involvement in Syria through proxies will play out for the US itself may lead to erroneous conclusions on Russian staying power . Russian use of actions within the UN ambit and international legal framework unlike Afghanistan has severely limited the options of US. It has also given a lot of legitimacy to Russian actions.

Another key difference from the bi-polar world of Cold War Afghanistan is the rise of China and position of Europe. The dragon while being quite is inclined towards Russia and Europe while leaning towards US is not exactly anti Russia. Plus Europe is afraid of the effects of radicalization with the Sunni factions being propped by US and allies. Those refugees in Germany, the attack in Paris will define a lot of European posturing.

Dec 2015 was projected to be the end of Assad. Not only have they stemmed the route since intervention of Russia in Sep 15, the regime forces have turned the tables and it is the US backed factions and ISIS which are on the run. Syria is likely to become a full blown Sunni - Shia conflict if it is not already one.

Just my two cents.

vina · Post by **vina** » 22 Dec 2015 10:27

Also, Russia's job is not done until KSA is cut to size - there is no escape from that. I think Israel may find common cause with Putin on that aspect.

Yo YakHerder. The Israelis are in cahoots/ Modus Vivendi with the Soddies . They simply face no long term threat from a fat , bloated, zero skill and can't make a nail bunch of fat slobs who are kept in place by the munificence of Unkil and can be kicked over like a paper building with just a gust of wind.

What scares them long term is technically accomplished and industrialised Iran, which has the civilisational smarts , the brains , the culture and the human resources to be a long term competitor and threat. Who has ever heard of a Saudi who was accomplished in anything except , while there are scores of smart Iranians, right from Fields medalists to top class electrical engineers all over the world.

Everyone knows that the Iranians have been kept down. Once the downward hand is lifted, they will rise again. This is what is happening and hence the Arabs are getting their panties into a knot.

member_29247 · Post by **member_29247** » 22 Dec 2015 10:29

One must also add in the factor that CIA lead afghan mujaheddin and ISI of Pakistan wer amply funded with Narco Human trafficking Mafia all around the Arab world. So the ecosystem was self funding without running out dollar funding from Penatgon. it's like NPR fund raising with matching contributions fro KSA etc..

Now fast forward the VHS tape, Today as YIP indicates the TSP is replaced by Turkey, Mujahadeen is replaced By ISIS, KSA UAE Qatar...
How about finances. here is the key, the oil smuggling, looting of Iraqi banks, pumping excess oil to defeat Russian export oil revenue, Iran as well

Now put in Isreal into the picture to supply weapons for Oil to ISIs via Turkey just like they did in Iran Iraq war.

So the real,front to defeat Putin is to break his bank, so Putin will be constrained to negotiate, it's just that Putin wants to negotiate fro position of strength.

I had mentioned to certain Khan of double hump camels in a email, the spiral of down of oil prices
As thermal runaway in a transistor circuit....

So time to invest in utilities , airlines with energy consumption intensive industry to make a buck and move out of any shares MF which are skewed towards oil and natural gas producing companies.

I feel we see the days of Oil at $28 a barrel during Iran Iraq war