West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Jan 2016 19:46

Apparently parts collapsed, but not the whole thing. Staff credited with calmly evacuating hotel. Probably Malloos.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Jan 2016 19:47

Probably a Houthi attack

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Jan 2016 22:25

But signs of how the new year will be for the camel herders.

Insurance companies will make a killing charging premiums for all the infra the said hoarder built.

habal · Post by **habal** » 02 Jan 2016 15:43

@Al-Qatif
Arabi-al-Saud

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 02 Jan 2016 18:36

^^Clearly the driver has the carnation ready to stick behind his ear, or rear - as the case may very well be, once the Houthis get there.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 03 Jan 2016 06:48

Regardless of how we feel about UAE, the fact that in the presence of a huge fire there were no reported deaths and all guests were evacuated to safe places with thousands of party goers milling out in the streets jamming up the streets speak of high professionalism and skills among the fire fighting and EM and rescue people. Dubai's firefighting, police, and security police are to be commended to ensuring no deaths compared to the over 2000 deaths in Mecca in the worst stampede we have seen in this millennium.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Jan 2016 08:40

Hitesh, hotel residents credited the calm of the staff for most of that - swift orderly evacuation. Probably 400% Mallostani staff onlee.

But what started the fire and sent it out of control is a large question. Surprising that there was not much loss of life in the initial explosion/conflagration, but very welcome if true.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 03 Jan 2016 20:30

Ulan, I would not be so quick to credit only the hotel staff. No casualties meant the hotel management and EM response crews did their jobs no matter how or any way you slice it. You would be doing the same thing if somebody were to comment on any Indian response. Can't have the cake and eat it.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 03 Jan 2016 21:08

UB - mainly Malloo and Filipino.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 04 Jan 2016 18:32

Saudi Barbaria executed Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr. Protests followed in the Middle Eastern Shia community. In Iran they burned the Saudi Consulate.

Now, Saudi Barbaria, Sudan, Baharain have completely cut off diplomatic relations with Iran. UAE has lowered diplomatic relations with Iran. Qatar may follow.

Meanwhile, the execution (beheading) of Sheikh Nimr has fanned Shia - Sunni divide with some major protests, many turning violent. On twitter some Shias' tried trending #BoycottHajj but that was laughed off.

Here is a video of some violent protests in Bahrain:

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Jan 2016 02:53

Iran's best chance is to complete Yemen fight by Houthis. Next UAE.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Jan 2016 07:08

apparently another viewpoint on west asia & levant

Saudi Arabia is running out of oil at a record pace.
That is why they fell for the gambit of western axis.

The lure was topple the Syrian government and control the oil from Iraq/Syria through Sunni proxies. This would allow them to manipulate prices and exclude Russia and give over monopoly of pricing to OPEC.

The plan failed.

The oil wells are getting depleted.
On another forum an OIL man revealed they have the biggest steam injectors of the world in Saudi Arabia putting high pressured steam in the ground to get the last bits out of the empty oil wells. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel in Saudi Arabia.

Soon the CIA will topple to Saudi Arabian regime so they can not cash in all that American treasury paper they bought in the past. All the 15,000 princes will be purged by the CIA.

Iran must not fall for the TRAP. They try to lure Iran into another front fighting Saudi Arabia. Same way they tricked Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait.

Just ignore Saudi Arabia. In time the CIA will topple the regime. When all the oil is gone and the Saudi's want to spend their American dollars invested in American treasury paper. It will all go poof.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 05 Jan 2016 07:30

habal wrote: so they can not cash in all that American treasury paper they bought in the past.

This is the best way to look at the events (and global turmoil in general). Destruction means rebuilding so nothing new gets bought and if anything will continue the commerce which means new money($) is absorbed as there will be new takers.

Show must go on.

That is exactly why Russia is seen as threat...it is the main country that wants to stop this charade. China also wants it but is not as motivated as Russia as it holds $2T in treasuries. India as usual is acting like a cat on the wall...we are too passive to even think along these lines. Brazil is getting punished just for being in the BRICS. Now efforts are on to make Argentina

growth story of Latin America.

There is no more BRICS being driver of global growth...they are deliberately underplaying it or even bringing down these economies.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 05 Jan 2016 07:42

habal wrote:apparently another viewpoint on west asia & levant
The oil wells are getting depleted.
On another forum an OIL man revealed they have the biggest steam injectors of the world in Saudi Arabia putting high pressured steam in the ground to get the last bits out of the empty oil wells. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel in Saudi Arabia.Soon the CIA will topple to Saudi Arabian regime so they can not cash in all that American treasury paper they bought in the past. All the 15,000 princes will be purged by the CIA..

Some in oil business said the same thing to me last week.Saudi oil reserve claims are not real but Made/ calculated in China.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jan 2016 07:54

quite plausible. the fear of saudi 'swing production' is used as a stick to beat other people. time some snowden type patriot called this bluff. the big oil cos operating there surely are well aware of the (under)ground reality(pun intended)

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 05 Jan 2016 08:06

JE Menon wrote:^^Clearly the driver has the carnation ready to stick behind his ear, or rear - as the case may very well be, once the Houthis get there.

lol..good one..judging by the state of it, looks like it has already been put to test a few times already

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 05 Jan 2016 15:19

As I said, Malloostan Tee Vee channels have almost totally blocked out news of Syria and Yemen conflicts, even when desis get killed there. Clearly under Saudi pressure/fear.

But the other day, the sanest relative I have, a young Ayurvedic doc, calmly observed:

War is about to break out betweeen Iran and Saudi Arabia.

I see what she meant. Diplomatic relations cut off, embassy staffs cleared out, all nationals expelled. Alliance of thieves cuts relations in tandem.

TV images of rows of Saudi tanks, mijjiles firing...

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Jan 2016 15:32

When discussing Russia, we talk only of money, money is nothing if not backed by Miltary strength, Russia and China are the only 2 countries whom the West cannot touch militarily due to Nuclear Armegedon, no wonder they want to break Russia and remove it completely as a threat. Then they will focus on China. We are not a threat sincce we have no MIC and force multipliers.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Jan 2016 15:49

we are not a threat because we do not maintain war fighting reserves of ammo. Our reserves are only enough for 6 days war at any given time in past 30 years. So they have rightfully concluded that we are just kidding around and are not serious about offence or defence. Supposing we maintain excess munitions, consumables and reserves far in excess of what we need for a war with Pakistan. Then the west will begin to think twice. We used to do that scrupulously during IG's times and that is why we were a threat then. We are developing MIC but again we are asking USA for aircraft engines. So then again they know that we are not serious about aircrafts and we do not intend to go to war with them, because they have sanctioned this route once, and still we persist. Our non-seriousness is evident there too. We have left our bureaucrats and military to interact freely with US and western allies. There are arms agents, wheeler dealers, commission warriors aplenty in New Delhi, which again is a sign of non-seriousness.
These are signs of all talk and no walk.

Have minimum platforms with maximum spares, reserves, inventory, consumables then the 'West' knows that these guys are serious about doing something. Let us not take them lightly. Automatically even with present budget we will become 3/4th China. The 'West' knows well that we have better intellectual material and scientific capability to absorb western technologies than China, but we have no interest in productionizing and manufacturing using these talents unlike the Chinese who aim to weaponize and manufacture whatever tech they can get their hands on. We are just content to get a grip on know-how, again a non-serious approach. We just refuse to get serious.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Jan 2016 15:54

Dubai fire,a bad omen of things to come on New year's day!
I had just posted a short time ago the strange coincidence of nations that built the tallest skyscrapers in the world,to find themselves with plunging economies.eco-crash not too long ago.The US,Taiwan,China,etc. have tasted the bitter eco drink.Dubai had its It possesses the world's tallest blg.

The Saudis are now building their edifice to top the Burj.However,their latest act of lunacy and despotic barbarism,beheading the non-violent Shiiite cleric,has triggered off a veritable war of words with Iran,breaking off of dipl. relations and perhaps even worse to follow. Portraits of the cleric resemble those of the legendary Cuban revolutionary,Che Guevara.
Read this report about the vulnerability of the Saudi pipelines which travel close to the cleric's homeland.Are we going to see Soothi Barbaria plunge into chaos? Their royals are already fighting within the palace,all bets are off.

Saudi showdown with Iran nears danger point for world oil markets

The world's densest network of oil pipelines runs through Saudi Arabia's Shia heartland. It is now the epicentre of a deadly struggle

Saudi Pipelines In Yanbu, Saudi Arabia
Photo: Gamma-Rapho
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

04 Jan 2016
The Persian Gulf has become a strategic tinderbox.

Saudi Arabia’s drastic decision to behead the Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr marks a point of no return in the bitter Sunni-Shia conflict engulfing the region. It is a dangerous escalation in the Kingdom's struggle with Iran for regional hegemony.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has vowed swift and harsh revenge, promising to bring down the Saudi dynasty in short order to avenge this “medieval act of savagery”.

Brent crude jumped to a three-week high of $38.91 a barrel as traders began to price in the first flickers of political risk. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers would in extremis have to run the gauntlet past Iranian warships.

Brent crude jumped to a three-week high of $38.91 a barrel Photo: AP

Helima Croft, from RBC Capital Markets, said investors have yet to wake up to the full danger. “If we’d had scenes five years ago of the Saudi embassy in flames in Tehran there would have been a big move in the price, but right now there is so much over-supply and people just seem to think this is all noise. They have yet to get their heads around what can go wrong,” she said.

The risk for the Saudis is that the execution of Sheikh Nimr for what is essentially peaceful political protest ignites a long-simmering revolt by an aggrieved Shia minority, who make up 15pc of the population and are sitting on top of the giant Saudi oil fields in the Eastern Province. There were violent protests in the Sheikh’s home-town of Qatif on Monday, with at least one protestor shot dead by police.

Ali al-Ahmed, director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs in Washington, said Qatif is the nerve-centre of the Saudi petroleum industry, the so-called “Grand Central Station” where 12 pipelines come close together to supply the huge oil terminals at Ras Tanura and Dharan. These pipelines are close to major roads and towns, making them hard to police against “hit and run” attacks.

Most of Saudi Arabia’s 10.3m barrels a day (b/d) of output passes through the Shia heartland, now seething with fury. While global crude stocks are at record levels, there is no spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia. A disruption lasting more than a few days could cause oil prices to spike violently – possibly to $200 or more – triggering a worldwide economic crisis.

Mr al-Ahmed said the mass executions have set in motion a fateful chain of events that nobody can now control. “It will likely trigger a bloody civil war that won’t end until the Saudi monarchy ceases to exist. This cycle of violence will not spare anyone or anything, including the coveted oil installations,” he said.

Bahrain and Sudan have already followed Saudi Arabia’s move to cut off diplomatic relations with Iran, and the United Arab Emirates has recalled its ambassador. The lines of cleavage are painfully clear in a Middle East already convulsed by four wars, and sliding closer to all-out conflagration.

Iran and Saudi Arabia severed ties from 1989 to 1992 but that was another era, when the US was at the height of its power, and willing to use it after the huge military build-up of the Reagan administration. There was then no civil war in Syria or Yemen.

The Kingdom is more vulnerable today as it bites the bullet on austerity, slashing subsidies in an assault on the cradle-to grave welfare net. Crumbling oil revenues have forced it to scrap the social contract that has kept a lid on dissent for decades.

While the Saudi regime tried to muddy the waters by beheading Sheikh Nimr along with Sunni al-Qaeda terrorists, his offence was “inciting sectarian strife”. Internal US Wikileaks cables show that the US embassy never regarded him as a terrorist.

He emerged as the spiritual leader of the Arab Spring protests in 2011, and although he taunted the royal family in hot language, he always advocated non-violent resistance.

The US and the EU told Riyadh repeatedly that his execution would be a grave error: the Shia world warned it would be an act of war. The decision to go ahead anyway bears the hallmarks of Mohammad bin Salman, the headstrong 30-year-old deputy crown prince who has amassed all power in the Kingdom and listens to nobody.

The Saudis have a formidable security apparatus, with a force of 30,000 guarding the oil infrastructure. But there is a high risk of infiltration by terrorist groups of various stripes. One suicide bomber caught in a pipeline attack in 2006 turned out to be a close relative of the head of the Wahhabi religious police.

Quite apart from the Shia question, an estimated 6,000 Saudis have been recruited by al-Qaeda. At least 3,000 have fought with Isis, which views the Saudi royal family as “apostate usurpers” and is waging its own terrorist war against the dynasty. An al-Qaeda cell arrested in 2007 was plotting to hijack civilian airliners and crash them into to the oil facilities at Ras Tanura.

Iran tends to operate through proxies. It relied on the Saudi Shia Hezbollah to kill 19 American air force personnel in the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996.

Intelligence experts say Iran is likely to pursue a strategy of attrition, bleeding the Saudis in Yemen, where they are badly over-extended, in a bloody stalemate that is costing an alleged $200m a day and risks becoming the Kingdom’s “Vietnam War”.

Iran has already supplied Yemen’s Shia-oriented Houthi rebels with Scud missiles. Houthi forces have been making increasingly bold forays into Saudi Arabia’s southwest borderlands, another area of Shia loyalties that risks splintering off.

A Bahraini protester holds up a picture of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr

The Iranians certainly have the technical means to inflict massive damage on Saudi infrastructure. James Woolsey, the former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency, said they have developed electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weaponry that can evade normal radar defences and destroy power systems.

They can launch orbiting satellites or low-tech variants floated on balloons launched from freighter vessels. “If they detonate one of these 30km in the atmosphere over a country, they can knock out the electricity grid,” he told The Telegraph.

General Keith Alexander, the former chief of the US National Security Agency, says Iran has one of the five most sophisticated cyber-warfare teams in the world, as it showed in August 2012 with a taunting virus attack on Saudi state-owned oil giant Aramco. Hackers erased most of the company's emails and documents, leaving an image of a burning American flag on the computer system as their calling card.

The cybersecurity firm Cylance Corp alleged in a report that Iran's cyber warriors have hacked into the email systems of the US Navy, and into critical computer systems in Britain, France and Germany.

A serious attack on Saudi Arabia would be a dangerous gambit for Iran, spelling the certain end to its rapprochement with the West and to its hopes for an end to sanctions.

Yet it cannot be ruled out. There are powerful factions within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that would welcome any chance to sabotage the nuclear deal. Saudi Arabia has just given them the perfect pretext.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilp ... rkets.html

member_28860 · Post by **member_28860** » 05 Jan 2016 16:02

Aditya_v wrote:

We are not a threat sincce we have no MIC and force multipliers.

Very true, but there is something else that we are missing badly:

In Hyderabadi lingo, it is called "G**ND-MEY-Dum". You should have this quality either in you or you should be man enuf to "DUM"" someone's G**ND. For Example, even a cursory glance at the economic figures of Russia and India would reveal something surprising: Our GDP, both Nominal and Real, exceeds that of Russia. But, everyone and his mom and grand-mom quake in their boots at the bear's growl. But, even Maldives shows their middle finger to us. Please confirm with Recep "I am the Sultan in waiting, how dare the minions do not respect for me" Erdogan for this.

I am amazed that Lebanon can take on Israel, knowing very well that they can be crushed like abug, but yet they do!!! Now that is G-M-DUM!!!

But, I will wait for the GDP to grow to $50 trillion for us to grow a pair of cojones. Till that time we can continue our "love letters"(Modi saab's words in the AAP-KE-ADALAT programme) and 1000 REASONS TO NOT ESCALATE against the WANNABE TURKS-AZERIS-PERSIANS-UZBEKS-TAJIKS-ARAPPPS to the west of us.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Jan 2016 16:12

Inshallah madhav, right you are.
the spirit is not there. It is missing. We used to be far more gutsy and attack oriented during 70s and 80s.
Bigger economy has made us far weaker than ever.

Today we are scared at what the US will do, what the Gulf Arabs can do to our labour. What economic sanctions can affect our IT industry.
When we had nothing of the above, we were a warrior nation.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 05 Jan 2016 16:17

So how to put Dum in GoI Musharraf ? Instead of Dum , GoI seems to have piles ever since IG departed.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Jan 2016 17:43

For all his naivety, Rajiv G took pro-active measures in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.wanting to cut himself adrift of the sleazy power-brokers who ruled the roost during his mother's time,RG unfortunately fell into the "ditch of dubious diplomacy" from jokers like Bhandari,etc. They forced him into sending the unprepared IPKF into Sri Lanka ,compounded by the failure of Indian intel about the mil capability of the LTTE,ignorance of the island's territory,astonishing-as the conflict there had been raging for a few years.VP Singh behaved like Bahadur Shah.He withdrew the IPKF unceremoniously after they had tamed the "Tiger". Even after the attack on Parliament during the days of ABV ,the huge yr long stand-off after mobilisation removed the element of surprise.leading to the "Cold Start" doctrine's emergence.

But do we have the wherewithal for CS? The media is rife with reports about ammo shortages,eqpt. shortages,and even gumption shortage among the rank and file (pun intended) of "Babudom".Babudom has crippled the country's security and done far more damage than the Pakis.They've repeatedly since Independence degraded the status and salarium of the armed forces,scaring an often corrupt leadership into the fear of a coup,thus keeping the armed forces and their service chiefs at several arms' length from the PMO and direct access to the PM which existed when IG was in power.

Babudom loves the regular conferences,summits,confabulations,paper work,paper-pushing and ars*hole diplomacy (back-channel),conducted by former babus that delivers bugger-all! There is a huge "p*ss in our time" with Pak industry in the corridors of power in Delhi .There are huge rewards on both sides of the border for continuing this farce.Sushma Swaraj should instead take advice from the military chiefs and strategic analysts instead of the MEA jokers who at any cost do not want their peace junkets to disappear!

How the Indian establishment has been repeatedly fooled by the Pakis defeats me. The Pakis always play the "good cop ,bad cop" routine.Their politicos and military are two sides of the same coin.They share the spoils of power and share the responsibilities.The politicos woo India with "love songs",showing a bit of skirt as they say and we fall for it! Their leaders then pretend that they were totally unaware of the terror activities of their military and portray themselves as victims of terror too! What a fuc*ing farce! But for the fact that we lose priceless patriotic lives in this farcical drama,conducted by actors and actresses of low and sleazy stature ,this would be great entertainment for the masses. When will the Indian leadership awake from the spell cast upon them by babudom,like King Théoden in LOTR? We need a Gandalf to awaken the leadership and establishment of India.

member_28860 · Post by **member_28860** » 05 Jan 2016 18:33

Habal wrote:

Today we are scared at what the US will do, what the Gulf Arabs can do to our labour. What economic sanctions can affect our IT industry.

Habal Ji,

I know it it OT, but I will make it brief.

If what you have said is true, then our first priority should be to stop begging for the UNSC seat (The lobbying money can be used for something else). The UNSC seat may or may not hold any value, but it certainly deserves someone better than us, meaning someone who can act on it's own. As far as I can see Britain no longer qualifies under that definition, France partially, and the remaining 3 definitely yes, and we certainly don't.

My reasoning is if we put a servile person on the seat of the CEO, he/she will still behave like one. A person who SHOULD be the CEO will behave like one whether he/her has the KURSI or not.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 05 Jan 2016 20:18

Madhav.K wrote:
Aditya_v wrote:

We are not a threat sincce we have no MIC and force multipliers.
Very true, but there is something else that we are missing badly:

In Hyderabadi lingo, it is called "G**ND-MEY-Dum". You should have this quality either in you or you should be man enuf to "DUM"" someone's G**ND. For Example, even a cursory glance at the economic figures of Russia and India would reveal something surprising: Our GDP, both Nominal and Real, exceeds that of Russia. But, everyone and his mom and grand-mom quake in their boots at the bear's growl. But, even Maldives shows their middle finger to us. Please confirm with Recep "I am the Sultan in waiting, how dare the minions do not respect for me" Erdogan for this.

I am amazed that Lebanon can take on Israel, knowing very well that they can be crushed like abug, but yet they do!!! Now that is G-M-DUM!!!

But, I will wait for the GDP to grow to $50 trillion for us to grow a pair of cojones. Till that time we can continue our "love letters"(Modi saab's words in the AAP-KE-ADALAT programme) and 1000 REASONS TO NOT ESCALATE against the WANNABE TURKS-AZERIS-PERSIANS-UZBEKS-TAJIKS-ARAPPPS to the west of us.

When Afghans started attacking and finally conquered India, our GDP was 100-1000 times Afghanistan. When Brits conquered India, our GDP was 10 times Britain. When China defeated India in 1962, it was barely equal to India. Gxxd Mexn Dum is not equal to GDP. Our military Jarnails want imports to inflate their GMD but have failed miserably.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 05 Jan 2016 21:07

>>Our military Jarnails want imports to inflate their GMD but have failed miserably.

Failed at what? Exactly, and within the remit of their authority. Make it a good answer.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jan 2016 22:30

for a vast swathe of the islamic world, war, arajakta and famine is a way of life. our society is very soft in comparison. neither it had to face a catastrophic revolution like china or a brutal war like vietnam.

for a vast swathe of the developed world, war, plunder and breaking other nations is a hobby and pastime of the elites, honed over many centuries. total and smooth control of media keeps everyone lined up behind the flag for these ventures.

we are neither as rich & brutal as the west nor as commited & fierce as the islamic world...a case of falling between two stools.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Jan 2016 22:51

Guys this is West Asia thread...
For new comers don't derail threads. You can post in the appropriate thread.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Jan 2016 01:13

Gyan, please answer the question.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 06 Jan 2016 11:36

Tarek Fatah (@TarekFatah) tweeted at 0:28 PM on Wed, Jan 06, 2016:
Saudis know it better!
What's an early sunrise without a splash of fresh camel pee in your face to welcome the day. https://t.co/p6I4jEY813
(https://twitter.com/TarekFatah/status/6 ... 01504?s=03)

Please check the video out. A Saudi literally washing his face with camel urine.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 06 Jan 2016 11:56

Chinmayanand wrote:So how to put Dum in GoI Musharraf ? Instead of Dum , GoI seems to have piles ever since IG departed.

Develop our own MIC and economy. In IG era, it was soviet dum which allowed us to defy US in 71.

Ramana gaaru,
just saw your post. Last post.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Jan 2016 12:45

Saudi barbarism. The "Moron-of-Cam's" statements.

http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/i ... Wyt8Ne2Csl
The death penalty is abhorrent and our leaders and diplomats should say so at every opportunity, but this is a particularly shocking example.

Independent on Sunday editorial

As a nation that outlawed the death penalty in 1969, and one that purports to stand for freedom and human rights...
Here's everything our prime minister, David Cameron, has said as of Monday lunchtime on the executions:

Nothing...
PS:Even the UN statement condemned the Iranians for the attacks on the embassy building,but never uttered a single word about the executions! And this is the entity that we're bowing and scraping for to get a seat at the UNSC high table!

http://news.usni.org/2016/01/04/analysi ... 234c8f82d4

Analysis: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Middle East Brinksmanship
By: Cmdr. Daniel Dolan, USN (Retired)
January 4, 2016 1:16 PM • Updated: January 4, 2016 1:55 PM

Iran-SaudiArabia

The furor in Iran and in Shi’ite regions around the world over Saudi Arabia’s decision to execute the prominent Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr this past weekend is an illustration of the irreconcilable differences between the two great branches of Islam.

Sheikh al-Nimr, a member of Saudi Arabia’s Shi’ite minority was an outspoken critic of the Saudi regime. He was ordered to be executed based on accusations that he was inciting violence against the ruling Sunni regime.

The prominent Sheikhh was beheaded along with 46 others in a mass execution of both Shi’ite and Sunni prisoners accused of adopting a radical takfiri ideology. The Iranian government had previously warned the Saudis that execution of the popular Sheikh would have serious consequences. Dismissing this warning the Saudi’s proceeded with the scheduled execution and the blowback was immediate.

Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran was set aflame by an angry mob just hours after the execution. News broke Monday morning that ties have been severed as both nations have given notice for diplomats to exit each other’s nation. The Shi’ite controlled government in Bagdad has also threatened to sever ties with the Saudis.
Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr

Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr

The ejection of diplomats, and saber rattling resembles the actions of the U.S. and Soviets during the Cold War. On many levels the rift between the two great branches of Islam can be compared to the Cold War. For instance, at its core it is an ideological struggle between a Sunni and Shi’ite vision for the Islamic world. The two heavy weight powers for each religious faction are represented by Saudi Arabia and Iran. The conflict has been playing out in proxy wars in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq.

These wars on the periphery, like the U.S. in Korea, and Vietnam have been calibrated in such a way as to avoid a larger and more destructive war between the two great powers. Like the Cold War each action, and reaction of the main powers are not without meaning in the context of the greater ideological conflict. And like the Cold War an incident or accident risks escalation.

This comparison is obvious enough for world watchers, but the more interesting point that U.S. policy makers may glean from this latest escalation in the struggle between the Sunni and Shi’ite factions is the intense passions involved on each side. This should not be downplayed or discounted.

In the interest of U.S. policy objectives Secretary of State John Kerry has correctly tried to focus Saudi and Iranian power in the fight against Daesh (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. For example, just last week as the largely Shi’ite Iraqi Army liberated the Daesh controlled city of Ramadi, the talk in western news outlets centered around the delicate matter of how Iraq’s Shi’ite controlled army intended to hand over control of this Sunni city. The presence of uniformed Shi’ite Iraqi soldiers in Ramadi is no more welcome than a foreign occupation army. The want ads for a moderate Sunni force have been posted. Holding and rebuilding the city will be the real challenge.

The search for a Sunni force to provide security and start rebuilding war torn Ramadi is just one problem that US policy makers are confronting. The larger strategic rift between the great powers in the region will not make this task any easier. Or will it?

If viewed as brinkmanship mid-east style, perhaps Saudi Arabia’s deliberate provocation of Iran last week was positioning for a better place at the negotiating table when the current turmoil simmers down. In the context of the larger conflict, this incident comes as Western pressure on Iran has been eased following the implementation of the P5+1 nuclear agreement. For example, just last week Iran met a major milestone with the transfer of 12.5 tons of low-enriched uranium to Russia for storage.

With sanctions and near bi-annual threats of military strikes against Saudi Arabia’s historic enemy now removed, the balance of power is shifting in the region. Perhaps this latest incident is Saudi Arabia’s way of sending a clear signal that it is willing to assert its authority to defend its interests, despite threats from Iran and diplomatic hand-wringing from Saudi’s western allies. A best case conclusion from this incident is that Saudi’s beheading of Sheikh al-Nimr was meant to earn a better place at the negotiating table, or a better position in the ideological struggle for the hearts and minds of the world’s Muslim population.

A worst case conclusion is that the incident was a Saudi step toward a more direct conflict with an Iran. History offers many illustrations of nations that sense the time is now to go to war when a rising power is feared. Familiar to all is Imperial Japan’s fear of a rising power in America that led to their decision to attack in December 1941. Japan knew that the shipyards in America were laying keels and assessed that an inevitable conflict was better fought before their enemy grew stronger.

Iran’s systematic dismantling of its nuclear program has already more than tripled its “break out time” for building a bomb. Additionally, the release of frozen Iranian funds in world banks will likely lead to a shoring up of Iran’s conventional military forces in the near term. Is Saudi Arabia sensing an opportunity? Most analysts and experts believe that escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is unlikely. While this is reassuring, the western powers should remember that the two most recent major wars between powers in this region—the Iran-Iraq War (1980) and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait (1990) took the world by surprise.

Whatever Saudi Arabia’s motives were for beheading Sheikh al-Nimr, one thing is certain, the fires of an already volatile region just got stoked. We can only hope it doesn’t boil over.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jan 2016 13:47

saudi arabia has ended the ceasefire a day after executing the shia cleric and started bombaring Sanaa with BLU cluster weapons supplied by america and with US tankers refueling them.

the houthis have meantime downed a F-16
http://theaviationist.com/2016/01/04/ba ... f-16-down/

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 07 Jan 2016 14:42

From Indian Express but saw it tracking the Levant tweets of @IraqiSecurity

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... st-itself/

A War Against Itself
To seriously tackle terror, Saudi Arabia would have to fight the very forces it supports.

Saudi Arabia’s alleged 34-nation Islamic alliance against terrorism is neither a game changer nor a serious attempt at combating Islamist terrorism. The Saudi kingdom – which is named after its royal family – lacks both the credibility and capability to lead any sort of alliance against the very same intolerance and violence that it inspires, supports and exports.
This so-called alliance is nothing more than a public relations stunt that attempts to show the world that Saudi Arabia seriously wants to be engaged in the fight against Islamist terrorism. The recent mass execution of 47 men on terrorism charges – the largest mass execution in the country since 1980 – was a transparent attempt to equate political dissent with actual terrorism.
In Yemen, the Saudi-led military coalition is empowering Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and ISIS, by giving those terrorist groups much-needed breathing space. Furthermore, the Saudis have had to rely on Australian and Colombian mercenaries to fight the Yemeni Houthi rebels. If the Saudis have to recruit non-Muslim mercenaries to fight in their own backyard, it is difficult to see how Somalia, Mauritania and Maldives’ joining the Islamic alliance is anything other than a symbolic gesture. Even Yemen and Libya, two countries currently being torn apart in civil war, were bizarrely declared to be part of this virtual alliance.
Immediately after the alliance was announced, several Muslim-majority states declared surprise at being part of a coalition they didn’t sign up to. Lebanon, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia publicly appeared confused at being included in an alliance without their knowledge.
The alliance was announced by the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman, a young prince who is keen on flexing his muscles at his enemies both abroad and at home. The German intelligence agency has publicly warned that internal power struggles between rival princes and an impulsive interventionist foreign policy risks destabilising the Middle East. When the German government rebuked its own agency for making this unusual and blunt political assessment, the German Vice-Chancellor then attacked Saudi Arabia for funding extremist Wahhabi mosques all over the world and declared that the “time for looking away is over”.
The West has long known about the key and destructive role that Saudi Arabia plays in the financing and support of terrorist groups worldwide. In a 2009 leaked diplomat cable, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton writes that Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest source of funds for Islamist militant groups including Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Clinton also expressed concern that the Saudi government is reluctant to stem this flow of funds to terrorist organisations. Another cable reveals how the Pakistani militant organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba, responsible for the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, used a Saudi-based front company to fund its activities.
Furthermore, a June 2013 European Union policy department report traced the involvement of Saudi-backed Wahhabism in the support and supply of arms to extremist groups in the Middle East, North Africa and South and Southeast Asia. The EU report also details the disturbing handling, manipulation and direct use of terrorist organisations by the Saudi government starting with the jihadists in Afghanistan and continuing today with the jihadists in Syria.
U.S. Vice President Biden even went on the record last year to admit that the biggest problem in Syria were U.S. allies – including Saudi Arabia – who were so determined to take down Assad and spark a Sunni-Shia sectarian war that they funneled hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of tonnes of weapons to anyone who would fight Assad. This policy empowered Al-Qaeda and led to the creation and territorial expansion of ISIS.
In addition to this direct military and intelligence support, Saudi Arabia also invests petrodollars in mosques and schools around the world that indoctrinate generations of young Muslims with the same ideological hate-filled discourse that forms the religious foundations of groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It is no surprise then that ISIS use Saudi religious textbooks for their schools in Syria and Iraq, which are educating the next generation of terrorists.
The West has been turning a blind eye to all the mounting evidence of Saudi Arabia’s historical and current complicity in Islamist terrorism because of energy security and a longstanding foreign policy that revolves around propping up minority rule and dictators who ensure “stability” through violence and authoritarianism. Saudi Arabia also spends much of its petrodollars on buying influence in Western power circles. This investment in political power enables much of the silence and acquiescence towards Saudi’s notorious links with terrorism.

In order to seriously tackle Islamist terrorism, Saudi Arabia would have to declare war against itself and fight the very same intolerant forces they support. This war would amount to suicide for the ruling Al-Saud family, who have been actively promoting an intolerant and violent form of Wahhabi Islam since the 18th century.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Jan 2016 15:25

the houthis have meantime downed a F-16

No announcement from them. Could be a longer-range rocket-ramjet missile? Putin putting some serious assets to work?

BTW, what is your assessment of Saudi/COuW losses? There must be some threshold beyond which the COuW will turn their guns on each other and start marching backward to Riyadh. Seems accepted now even in the western in-bedded media that the Yemen misadventure is a "stalemate". For a war that has NATO, Gelf, and North Africa all ganged up on this little nation, that is one daunting statement.

KSA rage at Eyeran is doubtless 50% that and 50% Syria jollies. Wonder what comes next. Usually in 'stalemates' there is a Tet Offensive, a Dien Bien Phu, a Durand Tunnel, a Mogadishu, a Beirut barracks etc. that then triggers the landslide and turns the stalemate into a rout.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Jan 2016 15:41

They might have thought that pakis will supply men to fight. Unfortunately, ( for us) paki not died in large numbers.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Jan 2016 15:53

Give them time. If KSA gets desperate enough, the oil/debt pressure on the golas will increase, and Pakis will be there just as the Houthis go on the rampage and the tribes start the fraternal genocides.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jan 2016 16:02

Hitesh wrote:Regardless of how we feel about UAE, the fact that in the presence of a huge fire there were no reported deaths and all guests were evacuated to safe places with thousands of party goers milling out in the streets jamming up the streets speak of high professionalism and skills among the fire fighting and EM and rescue people. Dubai's firefighting, police, and security police are to be commended to ensuring no deaths compared to the over 2000 deaths in Mecca in the worst stampede we have seen in this millennium.

given the fact that there was a tall building on fire and new year eve fire works on next to it, leaves a very bad taste about UAE

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Jan 2016 16:11

From which nation the fire fighters came? Locals? Are we sure?