Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

[Tim]

But...

It may be going too far to say the Iran-Iraq war started because of a Saudi-Iranian religious dispute.

Saddam started the war by attempting to seize the Arab regions of Iran (which, in Abadan, conveniently contain substantial portions of the Iranian oil industry). His announcement of the conflict justified it in pan-Arab terms, announcing he was going to free "Arabistan" and the three islands (Abu Musa, Greater and Leser Tunb) currently disputed between Iran and the UAE. It was clearly an effort to mobilize pan-Arab support against a formerly hegemonic, pro-Western Iran now wracked by internal disorder. And a blatant stroke of opportunism to make up for the humiliating concessions of 1975. Under Khomeini, Iran had also attempted to stir unrest in the Shi'ite regions of Iraq. And, of course, Saddam was a megalomaniac.

So there may be non-Saudi reasons the war began.

Of course, that's just the opinion of a jaded American whose pay should be cut, according to the master of spin.

Tim

[Johann]

To add to what Tim said the Shah supported a major Kurdish insurgency in Iraq in the 1970s. The Iraqis repaid the favour by arming the Iranian Baluchis. The Iraqis in so doing also indirectly sparked the Baluchi uprising in Pakistan in 1973. In those days Saddam was Vice-President.

When the revolution came to Iran and its rhetoric spread outwards to all including Iraqi Shi'ites it seems to have sent Saddam around the bend, and the Saudis were only too happy to send their dollars in to battle with him.

There's no doubt that Saudi financial support and diplomacy on Iraq's behalf in the West kept the war going.

[Rangudu]

Here's the link to today's "Talk of the Nation" from NPR. The topic was Libya, Iran and N.Korea's nuclear programs.

It's a 33 minute listen but a very good one.

It includes some mention of TSP by Joseph Cirincione of CEIP as well as analysis of today's Congressional testimony on the recent unofficial visit to N.Korean nuke facilities by a US delegation.

[Rangudu]

I can't sleep till I tell you guys this.

Today there was no one at work for a few hours and I was in a conference room all by myself.

On a whim, I called up a prominent non-proliferation ayyatollah, who shall remain unnamed. I asked him about Glide path. He described his opposition to it because India might use US material to advance its nuke weapons and missile programs.

I asked him what he felt about China. He said that because China signed international treaties and is a legitimate nuclear power, US can have nuclear co-operation with China. I asked him about China's violation of NPT (Ring magnets to TSP) and MTCR (M-11 also to TSP). I asked him why the US is comfortable with a serial treaty violator in China as compared to India which never even signed the treaty in the first place.

He said that this matter is too complicated to be discussed and he is busy now and will not be able to talk to me today or later. He then hung up before I could say anything.

[kgoan]

Folks:

Do you remember Sunil starting that thread on "How WMD prolif fit into Paks nuke strategy" in January of last year?

The thread was quite short, but I think quite instructive. Some of the questions asked then are now being answered openly- and as usual, the "new" answers in "today" seem to agree with some of the tentative conclusions made on that thread "yesterday".

Y'know, I think BR should start charging for it's stuff. Compared to the vacuous tripe put out there by all these "experts", BR would soon be in clover.

[kgoan]

Also, something else thats a little curious:

Looking through the news reports on the Pak scientists being "debriefed", where do they come from: i.e. Are there any associated with PAEC or only KRL?

I can't say for sure, but it seems to be all KRL people so far. If the hatchets being buried solely into the KRL folk, there's some interesting implications, no?

And if Xerox Khan and friends are all associated with the uranium route - then the plutonium route would probably be PAEC.

Furthermore, no way to know for sure, but I think the Chinese missiles (M-11?) were dealt with by the PAEC people or groups associated with PAEC, while the KRL lot dealt with the No Dongs and the friendly little folk in N Korea.

Too early to form any firm conclusions, but it might be worth noting if any PAEC people get busted as well or only KRL.

[Sunil]

Hi Kgoan,

At the time I made those suggestions, people had suggested I was getting ahead of myself.

Now I ask myself given how badly wrong the Non-Proliferation community was about Pakistan's potential as a proliferator and how they (and their South Asia Studies buddies) systematically ignored Pakistan's westward ambitions, and made up a `Good Friendly Pakistan' for the world media circus, how in God's name I am I supposed trust anything that these idiots have said.

I asked one of the uber pundits of proliferation a simple question once:

" What is to prevent a nuclear weapon from falling into the hands of the Islamists in Pakistan? Are we not on the threshold of a terrorist WMD strike? "

To which he replied:

" What is to prevent India's nuclear reactors from undergoing a Chernobyl style accident? "

I repeated my question:

" What is to prevent Al Qaida or some other Islamist terrorist group from taking over Pakistan's nuclear weapons - whereever they may be? "

He replied:

" What is to prevent India's reactors from being taken over by terrorists? the Pakistanis are cooperating with America to secure the nuclear arsenal. India isn't doing anything like that. Pakistan's weapons are very safe - General Musharraf has said so - 500% safe, you have nothing to worry about."

Now given that these idiots were sooooooo-wrong about Pakistan's other businesses, how I am I supposed to take all their other claims seriously?

It took me about 5 minutes to realize that this guy I was talking was a total scam. He didn't know anything and didn't understand the real implications of Sept 11. He was more interested in looking intelligent and reassuring (heck maybe that is what he is paid to do) than really doing any serious thinking.

Here is a simulated conversation.

Q: How do we know that Pakistan isn't proliferating anymore?

Non-Prol Answer (NPA): Because General Musharraf Says So.

Q: How do we know Pakistan hasn't already handed WMD over to the terrorists?

NPA: Because General Musharraf Says So.

Q: How do we know Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure?

NPA: Because General Musharraf Says So.

Q: How do you know General Musharraf isn't lying through his teeth to you like routinely does to India?

NPA: Because Stephen Cohen says so.

Q (To Stephen Cohen): How do you know Musharraf isn't lying through his teeth to you?

SPC's answer: Well I know the Pakistan Army for decades, they have always been accomodative of US interests, they are tall fair tight ar*sed people who have the good of South Asia at heart, and despite all the pressures they are a responsible nuclear power and they do not proliferate. See even the Non-Proliferation community agrees with me.

Chorus (SPC and NProl gurus): Yes yes Musharraf is good, we know.. we know.. we all know.. trust us... trust us...trust us... sleep now.. you are feeling sleepy... nice Musharraf will keep you safe.. nice musharraf will keep you safe.

No I sh*t you not, its like trying to talk to the Borg!

I love the way these people dismiss BR's opinions as being DOOs letting of steam.

[Kanu]

Shouldnt bother with these fools. Youll only increase your blood pressure, get stressed out and go bald! :p

[Sunil]

Kgoan,

> Uranium route v/s plutonium route?

You may have something there - the Chinese have provided the plutonium route to Pakistan and a weapon design (Chin-4).

So for some reason, as the Non-Prol Mullah says to Rangudu, China is the one whose name cannot be said, then it means we are only going to hear about the uranium related transfer and there will be no talk of actual devices having being transferred. Someone is desperate not to rock the boat.

I think a round of congratulations are in order for our Chinese neighbors. If only others were blessed with such intellect.

A very happy Chinese New Year to you all folks.

TSJ - whats the matter cat got yer tongue?

[Tim]

kgoan,

I've only seen KRL so far. Since the revelations so far have been about uranium, and KRL is associated with both the uranium route and the Nodong trade, that makes a certain amount of sense.

BTW, the Iranian Shahab-3 missile bears certain similarities to the Nodong. It may suggest a further link, but Iran also purchased SCUD-Cs from North Korea, IIRC, in the early 1990s, so it may be a bilateral rather than trilateral connection.

Tim

[Sunil]

Oh nooooo... what have I done!.. Aiyyo!!! where did my Chankianness go?

You know what.. I think I have been reading the Non-Prol community all wrong.

They are actually a very intelligent bunch of people. Heck they are much much much much smarter than me.

When they talk to you about containing proliferation, they don't really want you to do anything that they say - cause then their grants would dry up. So they make shady unworkable policies that effectively push you into a proliferation scheme and then they turn around and say "Aha-- you there you are a proliferator!!" and bang the grant moneies and the hot researcher chicks start flowing in.

In the meanwhile if you are reasonably smart you realize these people don't really give a living s*it about proliferation any way.. they just want their foreign jaunts and their egos massaged by waiters wearing spotless white uniforms and carrying tea and biscuits, so when they come by you give them the royal treatment and have them met by High Ranking Army bandmasters. They go back telling everyone how committed you are to non-proliferation and then you do whatever you want proliferate, make and sell megaton devices etc...

When the Non-Prol community finds out how bad you have been, they claim - they had no clue this was happening, and that you are obviously an international bad a** and so that sends in more money and more chicks - which in turns means more trips and more tea and more biscuits and the cycle continues.

I was such a fool not to realize this. More proliferation means *MORE MONEY* for the Non-Proliferation community.. Oh my my .. how did I miss this.

And if a nuke actually goes off somewhere.. the Non Prol. Mullahs say "Haan Chalega no- what is there it only went off in Tel Aviv or Bombay .. what difference that makes to us?-- screw it lets write a grant proposal to study aftereffects of a nuke going off in an urban area (a la M. V. Ramanna)"

[Vivek_A]

The nuke scientists were detained after the visit to Libya/Iran.
Pakistan Nuke Probe Reached Iran, Libya

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan's decision to detain and question some of its leading nuclear scientists came after it dispatched top-secret investigative teams to Iran and Libya to check allegations that greed led the men to cash in on nuclear know-how, a senior Pakistani official told The Associated Press.

Disclosure of the investigative missions indicates the seriousness with which the government is taking allegations of nuclear proliferation after months of public denials.

[shiv]

Folks - this thread is getting close to statutory closure time. It will, of course, be archived - but nevertheless I urge that people make multiple backup copies.