Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Jan 2016 11:57

India to be star performer with 7.7% GDP growth; China to slow down in 2016: PWC

India will be a “star performer” among emerging market economies and is expected to clock 7.7 per cent growth in 2016, outshining China for the second consecutive year, a PwC report says.

According to the global consultancy firm, of the emerging economies, only India is expected to grow faster in 2016 than its long-term average growth rate.

Among the seven emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey), India will be a “star performer”, while the Brazilian and Russian economies will contract and China will slow down, the report said.

“For the second year in a row, we expect India to grow faster than China, expanding by around 7.7 per cent in real terms,” it said.

According to PwC, the Chinese GDP growth will ease to 6.5 per cent in 2016, as growth in manufacturing and exports will continue to slow gradually.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 12 Jan 2016 15:38

A quick graphic on UDAY -

For further reading - https://t.co/lNKx0BHFvO

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Jan 2016 19:21

Not sure which thread this belongs:
http://www.sourcingfocus.com/site/newsi ... n_of_2016/

India, the world’s most attractive outsourcing destination of 2016

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

AT Kearny, a London-based global management consulting firm, rated India as the world’s biggest financial and business attractive outsourcing destination of the planet.

The 2016 Global Service Location Index (GSLI) - AT Kearney’s study - analysed 55 countries, making to the top ten: India, China, Malaysia, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Mexico, Chile and Poland.

India and Philippines “are still top of mind when it comes to offshoring”, said Nikolai Dobberstien, a partner with AT Kearney’s Communications.

“The hunt for new talent is now taking companies beyond these countries’ capitals and major cites to tier 3 locations such as Surat, Nagpur, and Lucknow in India and Bacolod and Iloilo City in the Philippines”, Nikolai adds.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 12 Jan 2016 22:53

Industrial output falls, retail inflation inches up

HIGHLIGHTS
• The annual consumer price inflation edged up for a fifth consecutive month to 5.61 per cent in December from a year earlier
• The annual industrial output contracted 3.19 per cent in November
• Prices of pulses were up 45.92 per cent over those prevailing during the past year

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Jan 2016 03:15

http://swarajyamag.com/economy/recessio ... for-india/

It is not very simple to predict the direction of the world economy or the stock markets or geopolitical events. So it would be a huge feat if someone gets almost all his predictions right.

Predicting the direction of the world economy or the stock markets or geopolitical events is always a mugs’ game. So it would be a huge feat if someone gets almost all his predictions right. Well, it is time to give Ruchir Sharma, head of Emerging Markets Equity and Global Macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, a big hand. His predictions about the top 10 trends of 2015, given to NDTV about a year ago, have mostly come true. More important, none of his observations went wrong.

Ruchir Sharma

The most important takeouts from Sharma’s crystal-ball for 2016 are that the global economy may be entering a period of recession, and that oil will not rise above $70-80 for the next 10 years. For India, this means 2016 is the year for accelerating reform, through the executive route if not the legislative one. (We shall look at Sharma’s 10 predictions in detail a bit later, but first we need to understand why he was so right in 2015.)

Looking at global data over several decades helps Sharma discern patterns that iron out the kinks in year-to-year forecasting. Last year, Sharma said that stock markets rise 20 percent in the first year after a new government is sworn in; they rise another 20 percent if reforms materialise; if they don’t. stocks fall 12 percent. Bang on for India. The Indian stock market declined in 2015 after the high reform hopes of 2013-14 vanished in 2014-15.

His other nine predictions (or observations) for 2015 were:

(a) The 2015 budget will be transformational if more power is given to states (it was given, with 62 percent of nation’s revenue resources going to states); and that interest rates could fall (they did, but a bit sporadically).

(b) China will be big risk for the global economy (it was, and still is).

(c) India is likely to grow faster than emerging markets (as has been the case always).

(d) The India-China divide is too huge to be bridged (no major prediction this, but an important observation for those who still try to bracket the two together; China’s per capita income is five times India’s).

(e) India will find it tough to obtain foreign capital flows (true, total inflows into equity and debt were a measly $10-11 billion in 2015).

(f) Oil prices were heading for their 100-year average and commodity prices will remain low for a long period (true so far).

(g) The dramatic fall in global inflation will help India (it did).

(h) Tech billionaires will overshadow energy billionaires (who can dispute this, ask Mark Zuckerberg, Jack Ma, Jeff Bezos and our own Sachin Bansals and Kunal Bahls).

The last thing he said: India should be wary of positive magazine covers on the economy or companies. If a general interest magazine starts reflecting a trend, it is probably already dying out. The 2014 magazine covers that talked about a quick revival of the Indian economy all turned out to be wrong.

At the start of 2016, even accepting that some of Sharma’s trends are not predictions but mere observations, one can be sure that data-based crystal ball is a fairly trustworthy source for predicting broad trends and directions.

So what is Sharma saying this year? His 10 trends and insights for this year, broadcast last night (11 January) on NDTV, suggest the following (with my comments in italics):

#1: Global recessions happen roughly once in eight years. This means, after 2008, 2016 is in line for one. So fasten your seatbelts for a bumpy ride downwards.

#2: China is the “weakest” link, having swallowed too much debt to keep growth up artificially. Sharma’s point: a 40 percent increase in debt over just five years is a danger signal. Something has to give. We can only hope it doesn’t give in 2016, but who can predict that? Best to focus on what we can do to fix our domestic reform and growth issues. The world cannot help us, except by keeping commodity prices low.

#3: Growth can’t revive this year when emerging market exports are falling globally. Corporate profits will be weak, given zero sales growth last year. Even this has depended on India turning protectionist. And what about the 7.2-7.5 percent GDP growth predicted for this year and similar things next year? The dichotomy between GDP and corporate growth data indicates suspect data, says Sharma. Takeout: We shouldn’t assume that 7 percent is the real growth. On the old GDP calculation, perhaps 6-6.5 would be what we should assume, never mind what the numbers say.

{I disagree with above. India can grow real GDP 8-10 percent - old or new GDP calc. Growth in AP, Orissa, Bihar, UP, Assam, rest of NE}

#4: Commodity prices will continue to remain weak. Sharma predicts oil to remain well below $70-80 a barrel for next 10 years, though $50-60 is India’s sweet spot. This means 2016 is when Narendra Modi must pick courage in its hands and deregulate the entire oil sector.

#5: India is still to conquer inflation; recent price moderation may be entirely due to low commodity prices. This means more reforms are needed to create a truly national market for farm produce, and less protection for domestic players. Focus should be on ending inter-state barriers to trade, and improving the ease of doing business.

#6: US is unlikely to raise interest rates too much. Sharma’s reasoning is counter-intuitive here. He is not saying this because of the possibility of a US slowdown, but because the US Fed has now effectively become the world’s central bank, and this means global growth has begun to matter in its calculations more than just the US domestic economy. For India, this means less pressure from US Fed to keep rates high. Raghuram Rajan has more headroom to cut rates.

#7: Rupee cheap, other currency cheaper. This means India will have another tough year on exports, but imported inflation will also be under control. Time to pack your bags and visit any country other than the US for cheap tourism.

#8: Tech remains in favour. Sharma’s phrase is, ‘FANG in, BRICS out’. FANG is short for Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (the ‘A’ could have been used for Apple and Alibaba too, but Sharma chose Amazon). BRICS out means that the old assumptions about BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) driving future world growth have gone out of the window. BRICS without the Chinese engine are a motley crowd without adequate heft of their own. India may be an exception to BRICS gloom, but we can do little to help world growth with our smallish $2 trillion economy.

Sharma sees an explosion of “Unicorns” around the world – Unicorn being a term used to describe billion-dollar startups. Funding may get scarce, but tech’s attractions make it the only game in town.

#9: Banks are dragging India down. Thanks to a trainload of bad loans on their books, public sector banks are unable to lend, and credit growth has stalled. The Modi government knows this, and is likely to give priority to recapitalising banks and pushing growth through higher fiscal spends so that more money lands in the pockets of private borrowers, which will ultimately allow banks to reduce their bad loans. But this is only a short-term palliative; the long-term solution is privatisation of banks and operational autonomy for banks that will always remain with the government.

#10: Voters are blowing a fuse. Sharma says that with growth stalling, voters are more than willing to vote governments out, as it happened here in 2014. His data show that in the decade before 2007, 65 percent of incumbent governments were returned to power; now the ratio is more like 50:50. Modi has his work cut out for him if he wants to be among the 50 percent of incumbents that survive 2019. He has to get growth up – and fast. Getting growth and jobs up in 2018 may be too little, too late. He could then end up with a Vajpayee-like defeat.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 13 Jan 2016 08:19

OECD composite leading indicators, November 2015:
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_CLI

News-item:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 534151.cms

India is witnessing firming economic growth while most of the developed economies are seeing mixed trends, according to Paris-based think tank OECD.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said there is diverging patterns among the major emerging economies with tentative signs of stabilisation in China and Brazil.

The assessment is based on Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) that are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.

India's CLI inched up to 100.4 in November from 100.2 in October.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Jan 2016 10:55

The fall in the IIP in November is a statistical anomaly on account of when the festival season holidays were in 2015 (November) and 2014 (October). This resulted in a low 2014-15 base for October due to fewer working days in each corresponding month, such that this year's October IIP growth was high (9.8%), and correspondingly set a high base for November, resulting in a fall in IIP. This is further explained in this article:
Industrial output contracts 3.2% in Nov

Industrial output fell 3.2 per cent in November, contracting by the sharpest margin in the past four years, government data released on Tuesday showed.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) dipped for the first time in the past 13 months in November, after registering a five-year high rise of 9.8 per cent in October. Economists had warned then to treat it as a statistical aberration since the expansion was on a low base.

Notwithstanding this contraction, the cumulative industrial growth for April-November 2015 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 3.9 per cent, compared with the 2.5 per cent growth registered in the same period in 2014-15.

Part of the dip was on account of a shift in the festive calendar. “We had expected a sharp dip in the performance of the IIP in November, on account of the unfavourable base effect arising from a shift in the festive calendar, as well as the trends revealed by various lead indicators. Nevertheless, the contraction in output revealed by the initial estimates for the IIP for November 2015 is disappointing compared to our forecast of marginal growth (+0.2%),” said Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ICRA.

Among the sub-sectors, manufacturing, which constitutes three-fourths of the Index, fell 4.4 per cent in November after a staggering growth of 10.6 per cent in October.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 13 Jan 2016 22:29

FT: Make or break year for Modi’s India development dream Behind a paywall

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Jan 2016 23:19

For the fall in IIP numbers., none of the financial dailies/weeklies accounted for the almost 1-2 week shutdown in Chennai.

Almost all automakers had a complete shutdown measuring in days and several had partial shutdown running in weeks. Further the ports also clog up (roads, rails clog up leading to clog up of ports) which takes more time to clear.

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Jan 2016 23:31

A new farm insurance scheme has been launched.

https://twitter.com/PMOIndia/status/687 ... 36/photo/1

From chindu:

To be rolled out from the kharif season this year, the much awaited scheme — Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana — was cleared at the Cabinet meeting, headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

PMFBY will replace the existing two schemes National Agricultural Insurance Scheme as well as Modified NAIS which have had some inherent drawbacks.

“The cabinet has cleared the Agriculture Ministry’s proposal on new crop insurance scheme,” sources said.

It has approved farmers’ premium between 1.5 to 2 per cent for foodgrains and oilseeds crops, and up to 5 per cent for horticultural and cotton crops, they said.

The farmers’ premium would be 1.5 per cent for rabi foodgrains and oilseeds crops, while 2 per cent for kharif foodgrains and oilseeds crops. For horticutural and cotton crops it has been fixed at up to 5 per cent for both the seasons.

According to sources, PMFBY will increase the insurance coverage to 50 per cent of the total crop area of 194.40 million hectare from the existing level of about 25—27 per cent crop area. The expenditure is expected to be around Rs 9,500 crore.

In PMFBY, there will not be a cap on the premium and reduction of the sum insured, they said. Besides, 25 per cent of the likely claim will be settled directly on farmers account and there will be one insurance company for the entire state as well as farm level assessment of loss for localised risks and post harvest loss.

Private insurance companies, along with the Agriculture Insurance Company of India Ltd, will implement the scheme. All claim liability will be on insurer and the government would give upfront premium subsidy.

The new scheme is significant as the country is facing drought for the second straight year due to poor monsoon rains and the government wants to enhance insurance coverage to more crop area to protect farmers from vagaries of monsoon.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Jan 2016 00:34

disha wrote:For the fall in IIP numbers., none of the financial dailies/weeklies accounted for the almost 1-2 week shutdown in Chennai.

Almost all automakers had a complete shutdown measuring in days and several had partial shutdown running in weeks. Further the ports also clog up (roads, rails clog up leading to clog up of ports) which takes more time to clear.

The brunt of the Chennai floods occured in December, though there were clearly effects in mid November itself. These are November IIP figures. The holiday pattern on the other hand, cut nationwide output in November because of the peak of holiday season. That peak was in October in 2014. So Oct 2014 had fewer working days than Oct 2015 (which resulted in 9.8% IIP gains in Oct 2015). Correspondingly Nov 2015 had fewer working days than Nov 2014 (in addition to the flood issue), so Nov 2015 showed an IIP drop. This will carry thru in the Dec 2015 numbers too because the floods hit hard then.

This kind of statistical anomaly is not India specific. The date of the Chinese lunar new year affects their economic data in January/February each year in exactly the same way.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Jan 2016 01:08

http://www.dailyo.in/business/indian-ec ... /8448.html
"Why India's economic growth remains a worry
Demand for factory made goods will remain subdued due to slow global growth and poor demand from rural areas."

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Jan 2016 08:33

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Jan 2016 16:55

^^^ Please, when you put a youtube, please also put a line about its key takeaway.

disha · Post by **disha** » 15 Jan 2016 00:33

^^Key takeaway:

1. By 2017-2018., Modi Sarkar will save some 23000 MW of power during peak., that is @$20 Billion in savings
2. Bulbs costing several dollars are given out at 15 cents (rupee equivalent)., Modi Sarkar negotiated huge savings in bulb procurement by ordering in bulk.
3. This is saving money across the board., for example a soda vendor in a rural village was able to increase his production 1.5x times (50% more) by working later in night and thus earning $23 (or Rs. 1500) extra. That Rs. 1500 will go towards education or home improvement (*)

(*) And people wonder why India's economy is growing at 7%., while large companies are showing only flat sales. The vendor above was hampered by increasing his production due to large input cost (electricity).

I have pointed out earlier., it is the rural economy which is growing - by 2018-2019 my thumb calc indicate that some 100 million will jump from 'poverty' to 'lower-income' status.

disha · Post by **disha** » 15 Jan 2016 00:38

Suraj wrote: The brunt of the Chennai floods occured in December, though there were clearly effects in mid November itself. These are November IIP figures. The holiday pattern on the other hand, cut nationwide output in November because of the peak of holiday season. That peak was in October in 2014. So Oct 2014 had fewer working days than Oct 2015 (which resulted in 9.8% IIP gains in Oct 2015). Correspondingly Nov 2015 had fewer working days than Nov 2014 (in addition to the flood issue), so Nov 2015 showed an IIP drop. This will carry thru in the Dec 2015 numbers too because the floods hit hard then.

Thanks for pointing out it is November IIP figures., I took it as December. Given that, I will expect IIP figures for December to be subdued as well.

Either way, we have accumulated more logic behind the 'so-called-dip' in IIP numbers than 90% of the so-called journos.

This kind of statistical anomaly is not India specific. The date of the Chinese lunar new year affects their economic data in January/February each year in exactly the same way.

Similar anomalies is also true for other countries including US. For example thanksgiving coming early or late leads to shift in numbers.

Expanding the daily.io report

http://www.dailyo.in/business/indian-ec ... /8448.html

Why India's economic growth remains a worry
Demand for factory made goods will remain subdued due to slow global growth and poor demand from rural areas.
MONEY | MACRO MATTERS | 3-minute read | 13-01-2016
Tina EdwinTINA EDWIN @tinaedwin
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Total Shares
Call it post-Diwali blues, if you will. After a robust 9.9 per cent rise in October, industrial output as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP) contracted 3.2 per cent in November, giving rise to fresh worries about the state of the economy.

{My take: do not watch numbers on a month-month basis. They are always abnormal}

It also doesn’t help that food price inflation remains elevated, mostly due to high prices of pulses, a result of two consecutive years of sub-par monsoon. The consumer price index for December 2015 climbed 5.6 per cent, on a year-on-year basis, with consumer food price inflation rising 6.4 per cent.

But inflation is less of a worry for policy makers than the contraction of the manufacturing sector.

Both 9.9 per cent expansion of industrial output in October, as well as the 3.2 per cent contraction in November, were unexpected.

{rofl}

Economists say the October expansion was anyway unsustainable but contraction in November was surprising. Perhaps, it was due to the unprecedented and excessive rains in Tamil Nadu and other parts of India’s east coast.

Tamil Nadu has the largest base of organised manufacturing units in the country. If indeed, it was the Tamil Nadu effect, then December output too would have suffered as rains had continued till middle of that month.

One thing is clear, as chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian wrote in the mid-year review, challenges to growth persist, and it will continue to hurt the Indian economy in 2016-17 as well.

The IIP, an indicator that tracks the level of manufacturing, mining and electricity output in the country, shows that it was the capital goods sector that contracted the most in November, about 24.4 per cent, from a year ago. Most of that contraction was due to decline in output of machinery and equipment, and transport equipment for the commercial sector.

Output of tractors, for instance, shrank over 42 per cent in November due to poor demand from farm sector due to failure of monsoon. Such sharp contraction of the capital goods sector is worrying for the economy - it signals that investment in new projects is at standstill or on decline.

{or is it reverse NREGA? With NREGA out of picture., the farm labour may indeed be returning back to the farmland? I do not think failure of monsoon is correlated to sharp drop in tractor sales}

It also means that demand is far lower than what factories are capable of supplying, and therefore, businesses do not see any need to expand capacity.

It is also worrying for jobs - even though number of jobs created by the manufacturing sector is small due to automation, lack of new investment means new jobs will not be created.

Amid the gloomy outlook for capital goods, there was some positive news from the consumer goods sectors, comprising passenger cars, two-wheelers, all kind of household appliances and other durable goods. This could be because the period from November to mid-December was considered as an auspicious time for weddings.

{Hain. Marriage season in India is in April-May-June. Yes, people get wedded all year round including Nov/Dec., but growth in capital goods in Nov/Dec is *not* due to weddings. It could be due to real money in the pockets of the consumer.}

While the output of these industries was higher than a year ago (same month) , it was 17 per cent lower than the levels achieved in October.

Clearly, manufacturers were unsure of piling up inventory, given that the demand from rural areas had disappeared following two seasons of failed monsoon. Production of passenger automobiles had been tapered down after Diwali, as automobile companies do not like carrying forward inventory into a new calendar year.

There was some good news from the gems and jewellery sector too - the nearly 254 per cent growth in November from a year ago. { 254% growth mumble-mumble-sigh} Again, it could be driven by the festival and wedding season in the domestic market and some bit of Christmas orders from overseas {This does not compute - a 'bit' of xmas orders from a world in a funk creates a 254% growth in gem/jewellery}. Gems and jewellery, including gold jewellery is among top exports from India, and also a major employer.

The volatility in industrial production is worrying but it may be here to stay for many more months, given the slow growth of global economy, and particularly the slowdown of China, and India’s owns problem caused by two consecutive years of poor monsoon.

Only a good spell of rain across the country during 2016 monsoon season can revive the rural demand. Yet, the crash in global prices of petroleum crude oil and other commodities, such as various metals including iron is an opportunity as it brings down costs for Indian companies.

{This is like ardh-satya., you can repeat the above statement modified for every year for the last 40 years and it will definitely be true}

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 Jan 2016 04:04

disha wrote:^^Key takeaway:

1. By 2017-2018., Modi Sarkar will save some 23000 MW of power during peak., that is @$20 Billion in savings(*) And people wonder why India's economy is growing at 7%., while large companies are showing only flat sales. The vendor above was hampered by increasing his production due to large input cost (electricity). I have pointed out earlier., it is the rural economy which is growing - by 2018-2019 my thumb calc indicate that some 100 million will jump from 'poverty' to 'lower-income' status.

Savings on 23k Megawatt power are staggering and low electricity cost for poors give them hope for high standard of living making impact on consumption. We should notice the difference in about 2 -3 years.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 15 Jan 2016 23:24

MIT: Incandescents Now More Efficient than LEDs
Return of incandescent light bulbs as MIT makes them more efficient than LEDs

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 15 Jan 2016 23:27

disha wrote: I have pointed out earlier., it is the rural economy which is growing - by 2018-2019 my thumb calc indicate that some 100 million will jump from 'poverty' to 'lower-income' status.

And this has been pointed repeatedly. Those poor people buy hamam soaps too. If the rural economy's growing it must reflect in the sales figures SOMEWHERE.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 Jan 2016 23:42

The NDTV interview claims sales have been falling. Fine. Show us the data then. Does anyone have sources for the data they are talking about ? Tax collection figures so far do not bear this out. News from October:
Higher advance tax payments by top 100 firms, better indirect tax collections signal robust economy

disha · Post by **disha** » 16 Jan 2016 06:14

KrishnaK' saar.,

You are assuming all of rural economy in India is buying 'Hamaam' soap (a brand owned by Hindustan Unilever, an MNC) and which is a market leader in TN, but not outside of TN. So are you saying that the rural economy in TN is static or shrinking?

Do you really think the rest of rural India outside of TN buys Hamaam which shows up in the bottom line of HUL? No sir., there are soaps like moz, need, beauty ....completely unheard of - which are one-tenth the cost of your Hamaam.

For example - Have you heard of Ghari or Point? Or other Nirma clones? Or Wheel clones? Or Rin clones? Do you know that there are some @400 detergent brands in India? And on top of that there are 'soap assemblers' which go to their 'factories' (smaller than your garage) and dish out decent quality soap at a cheap price.

The above is just an example which the chorporates do not track and their wine-swilling paid indian media professionals do not cover.

I have pointed out again and again., this page tracks one or maybe two Indias., when there are some 3-4 Indias out there in India. One just needs to wake up and smell the kaapi (or look at the @30,000 crore or $5 B deposited in the PMJDY) to get an idea of the 'third' India.

disha · Post by **disha** » 16 Jan 2016 06:28

Suraj wrote:The NDTV interview claims sales have been falling. Fine. Show us the data then. Does anyone have sources for the data they are talking about ? Tax collection figures so far do not bear this out. News from October:
Higher advance tax payments by top 100 firms, better indirect tax collections signal robust economy

Highlighting some quotes from above:

More importantly, they reflected an improvement — by a factor of 9.09% — in earnings prospects for the full year over June payments, according to data reviewed by ET

In news below,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... g-up-speed

or

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 131_1.html

Consumption of petroleum products rose 17.7 per cent to 15.2 million tonnes (mt) in October from 12.9 mt in the same month in FY15, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the petroleum ministry’s technical arm. A Business Standard review of the numbers showed this level has not been achieved in the period since April 2010, for which data is publicly available

In a price sensitive country like India., one does not get their car or two-wheeler out just to say - let us burn some 15% more just because the oil price per barrel is cheap. It basically means that there is more movement of goods and services to fuel the growing demand and at 50% efficiency - it points to a growth of @8.5% in the economy.

Now this comes on top of increase in production of electricity such that the gap between peak demand and peak supply is only 2% (link in last pages and in power thread).

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Jan 2016 07:04

What disha said - this from 2011:
http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... ent-brands

More than 500 local detergent brands such as XXX, T-Series, Vidsha, Tran Keri and Power Detergents have lost 10% of the 12,000-crore Indian detergent market, according to Nielsen data. Their combined market share slipped to just 2.9% in 2010 from 13% in the year earlier.

This is mainly because the small players could not hold their price lines in the wake of inflating input costs, while national players such as Hindustan Unilever and Procter & Gamble either cut or held on to prices, bridging the price differences with local brands.

The prices of crude oil, the key ingredient for making detergent, have almost tripled {2011} to $112 per barrel from 2009 levels of around $40 per barrel. "Unable to make low-cost detergents is one of the main issues faced by these smaller firms. And branded players are getting very aggressive on all fronts-marketing, new launches as well as customer acquisition through increased distribution," says Indiabulls Securities Vice-President Anand Mour.

It is therefore entirely credible that these small brands have revived with the falling price of crude oil.

PS: a nice slide deck about the Indian detergent market.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2016 10:44

dna india

TRENDING#
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Start Up India is the first step to realising dream of 'poorna swaraj'
BHAIRAVI JANI | Fri, 15 Jan 2016-03:56pm , dna webdesk
'Start Up India' is by far the bravest initiative of any government in independent India towards empowering a large number of citizens economically.

On January 16, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will unveil his plans for the 'Start Up India' programme. The programme promises to create a never-seen-before dynamic and enabling ecosystem for entrepreneurship in India. If reports in the media are to be believed, there were one lakh plus requests for invites to the event in New Delhi in an auditorium capacity of 1500. All this excitement reminds me of the melodious AR Rahman composition from the film Roja, 'Dil hai chota sa, choti si asha... chaand taaron ko chune ki asha, aasmaano mein udane ki asha' (Have a small heart and have a small wish... I wish to touch the moon and the stars, and I wish to fly in the skies). It is almost two decades since we first heard this composition, but its spirit beckons to Indians in small towns, villages and mega cities even today. Its message speaks to the spirit of a nation long waiting to realise its full potential.

In 2004, when the World Economic Forum (WEF) undertook the scenarios exercise for the future potential of India, they consulted people from different walks of life. The result was four different scenarios; in essence, four different approaches that India could take towards its future development. The scenario that emerged best for India was that of the “Fireflies Rising” - a scenario where individual citizens would have the freedom, opportunity and access to realise their full economic, social and political potential. In their collective success would lie the success of India as an economy and a polity. But the WEF was not the first to recognise this about India. Decades ago, the father of the nation, Mahatma Gandhi coined the word 'poorna swaraj' or 'complete home-rule' and insisted that political swaraj and independence were the first steps towards the larger goal of 'poorna swaraj'. Its essence is in every individual having the right to steer his/her life economically, socially, politically, religiously and spiritually.

Political swaraj came 70 years ago, but economic swaraj hasn’t really begun for Indians. The 1991 reforms, for the most part, opened up larger economic constraints, but they did not empower an individual citizen with the means to realise his/her economic potential. The past two decades have seen governments at the Centre and the state giving out subsidies and benefits, but not taking the systemic steps necessary to address the issues of unemployment, joblessness and therefore, poverty faced by millions. This has further worsened the situation and taken us away from realising the dream of 'poorna swaraj'.

-
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Unfortunately, political independence has not given way to economic independence. The Indian polity and its sheer existence is on the premise that a “free India” will enable her citizens to be masters of their own resources, and allow for them a daily life that is bereft of monopolisation, discrimination, entry barriers and resource scarcity. But the lopsided economic policies for decades perpetuated feelings of deprivation, hopelessness, social inferiority and resource scarcity. In such an environment, opportunism has overtaken peaceful co-existence. The tales of jobless youth pelting stones in Kashmir and desperate villagers migrating for survival, to urban youth engaging in crime and villagers affected by Naxalism taking up arms, all lead to one source – the lack of economic self-reliance. Let us not forget that it is only when the fight for the rights of an indigo farmer, or to protect the economic activity of our local weavers or our right to use salt from our own land became the fight of independence, that mass movement towards a “free” India could materialise. Until Gandhiji tied the economic day-to-day challenges of the Indian people to political independence, there was no en-masse participation of Indians towards the freedom struggle.

I believe this struggle is still on, but its manifestation is different. The average Indian, though the direct beneficiary of thousands of schemes and programmes for development, is not an equal participant in the process of national development. The struggle that the aam aadmi faces for swaraj is visible in the increasing crime rate, social divide, economic inequity and violence. Therefore, it is time to wake up and do something urgently about changing the factors that perpetuate this vicious cycle of poverty and exclusion.

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It is in this context that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day address on August 15, 2015, touched a chord with millions. His clarion call for 'Start up India and Stand up India' reached out to the unfulfilled economic aspirations of millions. It reminded us of the march we must continue towards our goal of 'poorna swaraj', it rekindled the hope of the scenario of a million fireflies rising and spoke to the small wishes of millions of Indians who want to touch the moon and the stars. 'Start Up India' is by far the bravest initiative of any government in independent India towards empowering a large number of citizens economically.

The initiative is not about “free handouts”, it clearly appeals to the enterprising and aspiring Indian. It speaks of creating an ecosystem for start ups in the manner where anyone and everyone can dream and dream big. It removes the first barrier to enterprise and economic self-rule— the barrier of socio-economic class. It is one of the few programmes of any government post-Independence which is open to one and all. You need not be educated, skilled, rich or poor, majority or minority, man or woman to benefit from this program. It is, in essence, a Free Programme of a Free Country to create millions of Free Enterprises through a structured ecosystem that involves the public and private sector in a never-seen-before partnership. But it does not stop there, it does something more.

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'Start Up India' in true sense strengthens the foundations of economic swaraj. Without this strengthening, the social, racial, religious divides will continue. How many tribals convert to a religious sect even today just to be able to feed their mouths? How many people continue to deepen their racial identity just to be able to avail government benefits? How many people continue to suffer indignity and violence because socially someone else has power over them? From a businessman who pleads in front of a government officer to a rural woman who pleads in front of a schoolteacher, they are all pleading, begging and constantly discounting their dignity so that they may get a permission to run a business or send a child to school. Start Up India, Stand Up India addresses these problems in their roots. The problems of economic disparity, economic inequality and economic suffering. It begins one of the largest ever economic programmes since independence and for the first time instead of experimenting with socialism, capitalism, communism and getting lost in isms, focuses on homegrown solutions for Indians from all walks of life. In that sense, it is truly a nationalist agenda.

Start Up India will focus on building a nation where earning one’s livelihood is a birth-right and generating sustainable livelihoods a responsibility. Whether a person grows, weaves, creates, makes, serves, or uses he partakes in the economic activity out of his/her choice and not compulsion. And that is why it leads to Stand Up India. It is an audacious goal. It is also too simplistic for the economic jingoism one is used to but it has demographics and political environment supporting its case.

The programme begins with a focus on technology and innovation-led enterprises because they are the low-hanging fruits, but if the Prime Minister’s own words are anything to go by then he will not stop here, he wants to march further. That would be not just advisable but necessary. Start Up India cannot stop at a small section of entrepreneurs, but it must manifest into a movement of Economic Independence. It should be about creating and strengthening Aarthik Swaraj (economic self-rule) so that people’s Aajivika (livelihood) and people’s Aamdani (earnings) are a result of their Mahtavakanksha (aspirations) and their Udhyam (enterprise).

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The wonderful news is that Indians, despite so many dampeners, have continued to remain aspirational and there are millions of us who aspire to a better life, a better livelihood, a better tomorrow. Start Up India’s final aim should be to create an Udhyam Leher (a wave of enterprise), that can sweep through our very being and allow us to release our unrealised potential as people and nation so that we may continue the journey towards Poorna Swaraj. Anything less would be keeping India away from her true destiny and potential.

Bhairavi Jani – Chairperson, IEF & Executive Director SCA Group

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2016 20:07

IBNLive - namo in full flow today

The highlights of his action plan are:
# A Rs 10, 000 crore corpus fund to be created
# Income Tax exemption for 3 years
# Exemption from capital gains tax for those who invest their own wealth
# Tax exemption on investments above fair market value
# 80% reduction in patent registration fees
# Self certification -- no inspections for labour, environment law compliance for 3 years.
# Start-up India Hub as a single point of contact
# Relaxed norms of public procurement
Modi told the gathering that he believed there should be least state intervention in start-ups and that he was there to hear what is government should not do.
He said the start-up movement was not for mere money and fame but to find ways to make a difference to the common man and to take the country forward.
Modi said the guiding spirit was compassion and many of the entrepreneurs were on a mission to make life easier and better for the common man.
"Money is a by-product for those who set up start-ups, they want to improve lives," he told a highly enthusiastic audience.
The prime minister also advised young entrepreneurs not to shy away from taking risks while fulfilling their dreams.
"The success of entrepreneurs depends on their ability to take risks. With a risk-taking capacity and the purpose of adventure, we can give something good to the world," he said.
Encouraging young entrepreneurs to share their success stories on his app, the PM said, Tell me your story, and I will tell your story to the world."
The Prime Minister's announcements were met with loud applause not only at the venue at Vigyan Bhawan , but also on social media.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2016 20:08

nirmala sitharaman responding to kunal bahl(snapdeal) comment that it should not take 1 month to
start a company said the govt is aware of the issue and working to make it simpler.

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/snapdeal ... ny-1266525

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 16 Jan 2016 21:41

Whether municipal officers, sales tax, excise, bank and hundreds of those who Lord over small entrepreneurs, are going to permit this at cost of their incomes?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jan 2016 07:22

changing the law to bypass and render weak these rent seekers would be the best bet. simplified forms or not, if parasites are anywhere in the workflow they will delay and ask for money.

its better to rewrite process with a clean workflow than attempt to simplify & clean a messy one.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Jan 2016 07:46

The key to avoid these red tapists/tapism is to see there is no direct contact between a babu and the entrepreneur. That is the key point. All forms should be uploadable online. No personal appearance and the certificate should be digitally signed and printable and archivable say in digilocker. One example to show how online payment helps is the payment of property taxes of BBMP online. Previously you had to go to the BBMP offices and the vultures would demand a bribe even if you had no problems and I would refuse but they would make it a horrible experience. Now everything can be done at home. The only problem is if you need to go for any rectification the vultures are there waiting to pounce !

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jan 2016 20:07

i heard part of a radio interview today from a solar energy entrepreneur. he said india was presently generating some 25GW from wind+solar but aimed to increase that to 160GW in 7 years per a govt plan.

ofcourse there are pessimists, realists, visionaries and things in between
http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2015/03/11/do ... ake-sense/

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Jan 2016 22:11

KrishnaK wrote:MIT: Incandescents Now More Efficient than LEDs
Return of incandescent light bulbs as MIT makes them more efficient than LEDs

What is the meantime to first failure? For incandescent it is the last failure, of course. Also how many on/off cycles it can last? Once it fails, you have to throw away the bulb. In LED bulbs, if 10% of the LEDs fail, it is still usable but at reduced lumen.

disha · Post by **disha** » 18 Jan 2016 00:53

KrishnaK wrote:MIT: Incandescents Now More Efficient than LEDs
Return of incandescent light bulbs as MIT makes them more efficient than LEDs[/url]

When I read the news, I thought good. But did not get a chance to follow up the tech part of it. Now, I will highlight some quotes from the above article with some highlights to bring out the true nature of that farticle:

About a decade ago, governments around the world developed a fetish for banning incandescents (through an efficiency rule) and replacing them with expensive LED technology and florescent bulbs. It happened in Europe first but eventually came to the United States. The last American factory to produce them closed in 2010, and they are ever harder to find in even the big-box hardware stores. (As with all such bans, there are exceptions for elites who desire specialty bulbs.)

So for governments across the world., improving 'light bulb efficiency' is a fetish and there is "right to burn energy inefficiently since pre-historically humans have been using incandescent technology.

That is the start of the farticle. Any article which does not understand the nuance is a farticle. Here is more:

On a personal note, my own dear mother replaced all her incandescents with fluorescents several years ago. I was sitting in her house feeling vaguely irritated by the searing lights in the room — cold and dreary — and had to turn them off. Sitting in the dimly lit room, my thought was: this is what the government has done to us. A great invention from the dawn of modernity is being driven out of use. Do I have to bring my own candles next holiday season?

Oww so cute. Why do not you get LED bulbs for your granny now? They are not dreary whites anymore but come in 'solar spectrum' as well and they burn less energy and are less of a fire hazard.

The bans have given rise to a vast debate about which bulb is best and what kind of light technology governments should and should not permit. But these are really the wrong questions. The real issue should be: Why should governments be in the business of picking right and wrong technologies at all?

Now a libertarian argument is brought forward. Sir., because without government incentives, the tech even if it is energy efficient may have to overcome established players (and inertia). Just look at the savings Indian government has brought forth and the boost to economy by switching over to LED. Nobody (nobody - my cousin asked me to get some LED bulbs from US, since he wants to change all the bulbs including tube lights - did not know there was an LED tube light till he pointed out to me

)

All in all the above farticle talks less of technology and more of hot air. Ignore it.

The good part of the MIT study is that the light bulb technology has more ways to go forward and not just in efficiency.

Researchers at MIT have shown that by surrounding the filament with a special crystal structure in the glass they can bounce back the energy which is usually lost in heat, while still allowing the light through.

On the efficiency side:

Usually traditional light bulbs are only about five per cent efficient, with 95 per cent of the energy being lost to the atmosphere. In comparison LED or florescent bulbs manage around 14 per cent efficiency. But the scientists believe that the new bulb could reach efficiency levels of 40 per cent.

Basically LED is 3x times efficient than traditional bulbs (and last 5x times longer)., in effect they are 15x times more productive. Even if they are 5x times costly., they are still 3x times cost-efficient.

Any chorporate will salivate at such cost-efficiency.

Now with new technology., the 'crystal glass enclosed filament' bulbs., they are 9x times efficient than traditional ones and 3x times efficient than LED. Hopefully it lives up to those expectations.

disha · Post by **disha** » 18 Jan 2016 00:54

And of course VT'ji brought up a great point about failures.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 18 Jan 2016 06:00

KrishnaK wrote:MIT: Incandescents Now More Efficient than LEDs
Return of incandescent light bulbs as MIT makes them more efficient than LEDs

Original paper here:
http://www.nature.com/nnano/journal/vao ... 5.309.html

Abstract: In solar cells, the mismatch between the Sun's emission spectrum and the cells’ absorption profile limits the efficiency of such devices, while in incandescent light bulbs, most of the energy is lost as heat. One way to avoid the waste of a large fraction of the radiation emitted from hot objects is to tailor the thermal emission spectrum according to the desired application. This strategy has been successfully applied to photonic-crystal emitters at moderate temperatures, but is exceedingly difficult for hot emitters (>1,000 K). Here, we show that a plain incandescent tungsten filament (3,000 K) surrounded by a cold-side nanophotonic interference system optimized to reflect infrared light and transmit visible light for a wide range of angles could become a light source that reaches luminous efficiencies (∼40%) surpassing existing lighting technologies, and nearing a limit for lighting applications. We experimentally demonstrate a proof-of-principle incandescent emitter with efficiency approaching that of commercial fluorescent or light-emitting diode bulbs, but with exceptional reproduction of colours and scalable power. The ability to tailor the emission spectrum of high-temperature sources may find applications in thermophotovoltaic energy conversion and lighting.

(emphasis added)

---
PS: Science Daily has a good popular article:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 135030.htm

---
PS: From the scientists themselves:
http://jdj.mit.edu/~ilic/recycling-light

Read the full Q&A at the link above:

Is this work meant to displace LED or flourescent lights?

Absolutely not!

LED bulbs are an amazing, fastly-improving technology that people should be using. Our work isn’t about competing with current lighting technologies, but about understanding the fundamental physics of tailoring thermal emission from a hot object (more on that below). We simply picked the example of (very challenging) incandescent emission as a show-case of the power of nanophotonic techniques for tailoring thermal emission.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 18 Jan 2016 06:01

India’s Keqiang index and the prolonged economic slowdown

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 18 Jan 2016 06:36

Ambit's Keqiang index for India is comprised of four variables: auto sales (commercial and consumer), cargo volumes handled, capital goods’ imports and power demand.

The problems are that, e.g., if power demand growth is tapering off and if coal is the main cargo, cargo volumes handled will taper off; so the two measures are not independent; e.g., it assumes that growth in the services sector is measured by the above four factors; e.g., policies like these, if carried out would reduce capital goods' import but we would not know if it is because of an economic slowdown http://www.hindustantimes.com/business/ ... wxTAI.html ; and so on.

Ultimately we'll have to be patient and see what actually ensues.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 18 Jan 2016 09:40

Reduction in interest burden could possibly prevent more companies heading towards bankruptcy The ‘tight fiscal, easy monetary’ policy mix can better address problems that plague private investment.

The economy's deceptive 'feel'

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 18 Jan 2016 09:58

Thinking of incandescent bulb as heat source is a dumb argument.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Jan 2016 10:04

BSE Sensex Peaked in Feb 2015 at 29559 and today Jan 2016 its at 24400

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SENSEX:IND

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Jan 2016 13:49

RBI's Raghuam Rajan on Single Biggest Challenge for India Economy

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... test[quote]

Melbourne: Implementation remains a major challenge for the Indian economy and if it can deliver on its promises, the country will be "the place to be", Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has said.

When asked to nominate the three things that most need to change to make a difference to the economy, Mr Rajan said, "Implementation, implementation, and implementation."

"The gap in India has always been between the promise and the execution," he said.

"If anybody was to look towards a big source of demand in future it would be hard for them to miss India," he said, adding, "If our implementation matches our promise, I have no doubt that in the next five or 10 years this will be the place to be - so good to get in early."

Mr Rajan told Australia's Sydney Morning Herald that he believes the "implementation gap" which had plagued India in the past is narrowing.

"I would argue that because of the common language - different accents but common language - I think there could be a lot going on there," the central bank chief said.

Mr Rajan praised the role of Australia's Productivity Commission in developing economic policy.

"Clearly there is a lot to learn about how you have used the intellectual inputs, the economic inputs, from that kind of organisation."

"There are so many places two large economies can learn from each other," he added.

When asked about Australian companies, like ANZ and Telstra, which have made promising investments in India in recent decades only to retreat at great cost, Mr Rajan said, "I'm not sure it's anybody's fault - there have been periods of strong growth and there have been periods where people have thrown in the towel and said it is impossible doing business."

Mr Rajan said India needed to improve its infrastructure, human capital (knowledge base of the population), regulations and access to finance.

When asked whether he was to consider a leadership role at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in future, Mr Rajan said, "I haven't even thought about that. The problems here (in India) and the immediacy of dealing with them is so much more interesting at this point." [/quote]