IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 22 Jan 2016 21:18

brar sahib joking eh?.. at what cost?

I was just laying out the options. If there are no new orders, and the IN has not selected the rafale then the only option to still keep it alive is to buy the tooling and make it in India through a JV between Dassault and an indian entity.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Jan 2016 02:58

brar_w wrote:
brar sahib joking eh?.. at what cost?
I was just laying out the options. If there are no new orders, and the IN has not selected the rafale then the only option to still keep it alive is to buy the tooling and make it in India through a JV between Dassault and an indian entity.

Don't be stupid. AMCA will be the replacement for Rafale, and there will be no need to continue an outdated platform. By the time the Rafale lines goes out, India will have its own 5th generation aircraft flying around.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2016 05:31

Don't be stupid. AMCA will be the replacement for Rafale, and there will be no need to continue an outdated platform. By the time the Rafale lines goes out, India will have its own 5th generation aircraft flying around.

Stupid? Go back and read the last few posts. Dassault is going to talk to the IN about the rafale-M. Mig, is offering more Mig-29K's to counter the apparent move by dassault to discuss the aircraft for the IN. If no additional nation orders the Rafale it could be out of production in 6-8 years. If the IN takes Dassault's offer seriously it would have two choices, either to complete the acquisition cycle prior to dassault winding down production, or to at a later date acquire the capability to make the aircraft in India.

The AMCA will take time to develop, mature. Even if it is the fastest 5th generation aircraft developed globally, you are talking about a 10-12 year timeframe between prototype development and initial operational capability, and that is if the CV is developed at the same time as the concrete version. If the IN can wait good, but my point was about dassault and its discussion with the IN on the rafale as has been reported here.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Jan 2016 07:58

Chakra.in wrote:
brar_w wrote:
Don't be stupid. AMCA will be the replacement for Rafale, and there will be no need to continue an outdated platform. By the time the Rafale lines goes out, India will have its own 5th generation aircraft flying around.
The AMCA will take time to develop, mature. Even if it is the fastest 5th generation aircraft developed globally, you are talking about a 10-12 year timeframe between prototype development and initial operational capability, and that is if the CV is developed at the same time as the concrete version. If the IN can wait good, but my point was about dassault and its discussion with the IN on the rafale as has been reported here.

Well, you said on the post I quoted:

I was just laying out the options. If there are no new orders, and the IN has not selected the rafale then the only option to still keep it alive is to buy the tooling and make it in India through a JV between Dassault and an indian entity.

If IN has not selected the Rafale, why on earth would Rafale production be bought and moved over just for the IAF? See how much Rafale is demanding for just 36 Rafales, imagine how much they would demand for entire production line move! Would be an incredible amount of money and orders of several hundred to make it worth their while, all of which would be better spent on indigenous technologies and AMCA.

AMCA technology demonstrators just need to be unveiled and seen flying soon, then public and political opinion will make it very hard even for these foreign lobbies to peddle their expensive and outdated platforms to take hold in India.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2016 08:00

Well, you said on the post I quoted:

Was it not clear enough that I was referring to an event where the Rafale would be selected? and not claiming that IT HAD been selected?

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Jan 2016 08:32

brar_w wrote:
Well, you said on the post I quoted:
Was it not clear enough that I was referring to an event where the Rafale would be selected? and not claiming that IT HAD been selected?

Well, not really. But anyone suggesting France is just going to hand over anything but an assembly line for French-manufactured systems, is being silly. India has played this game before with Russia, France is an unknown and probably even worse, given how much money they are asking for that makes their 4th generation fighter even more expensive than a 5th generation one. They will demand billions for each and every small nut and bolt to be manufactured in India. The orders and money they would demand would bleed the MoD dry. Not to mention they won't do it until they are already onto the next fighter aircraft, similar to what they did with the Mirage 2000s. So Military will once again be procuring an outdated plane, which then of course will need billions of dollars more in upgrades by 2030 and still not be as good as real 5th generation fighter aircraft like F-35 which could have been bought for a cheaper price. First France played the cost game by pretending to be the lowest-cost bidder during the tender, then they started playing the ToT game, so now they will happily play the MII game now where nothing will be actually manufactured in India, just assemble parts made in France.

Fast track development of AMCA, getting prototypes by 2017-18. Procure F-35s to go with EMALS Aircraft Carrier, perhaps as an interim if IN must. But devoting all this time and effort to assemble French-made subsystems for the world's most expensive and already outdated fighter plane would be a huge waste.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2016 08:48

Well, not really. But anyone suggesting France is just going to hand over anything but an assembly line for French-manufactured systems, is being silly.

Did I say that they will simply hand over? I guess you find it tough to comprehend the meaning of laying out the options...

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Jan 2016 09:16

brar_w wrote:
Well, not really. But anyone suggesting France is just going to hand over anything but an assembly line for French-manufactured systems, is being silly.
Did I say that they will simply hand over? I guess you find it tough to comprehend the meaning of laying out the options...

As I said:

France is an unknown and probably even worse, given how much money they are asking for that makes their 4th generation fighter even more expensive than a 5th generation one. They will demand billions for each and every small nut and bolt to be manufactured in India. The orders and money they would demand would bleed the MoD dry. Not to mention they won't do it until they are already onto the next fighter aircraft, similar to what they did with the Mirage 2000s. So Military will once again be procuring an outdated plane, which then of course will need billions of dollars more in upgrades by 2030 and still not be as good as real 5th generation fighter aircraft like F-35 which could have been bought for a cheaper price.

Anyone seriously suggesting that the country asking for $+200 million for an outdated plane is going to give up anything more than an assembly line for their subsystems is being foolish. Tell me how many Raffles India would need to buy to get real indigenization and locally source important components. 300? 400? 500? Don't be ridiculous, just look at the prices being thrown around for negotiation to get a feel for what it would take. 272 Su-30MKI were purchased from Russia, and the engine tech is still not entirely ours, same for the +1500 T-90s, still no tank barrel technology. France is going to give us LESS than what Russia does, so practically nothing unless MoD can shell out hundreds of billions to buy the world's most expensive 4th, and 5th, generation fighter aircraft.

This is not a serious option, might as well ask Amerikhan for F-22 indigenous production, they would probably offer a lower price at least

.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2016 09:26

I'm not going to pretend to predict what each and every nut and bolt is going to cost. I'll try one last time to explain what I had written. There was an article a page or so back, that claimed that Dassault is going to talk to the IN about a rafale deal. I laid out two options for the IN, if it is interested. One was to speed things up, since given a lengthy acquisition cycle and tender process they would be left in a situation much like the IAF with the C-17 where the OEM runs out of production orders before the IN decides one way. Another option to acquire the rafale would be to let the line close, and in a negotiate a deal with the Dassault to move it to India. I did not go into how realistic each scenario was, but just that the IN can take two paths given the situation in which Dassault finds itself in at the moment (single digit production per year) and customers that are now coming online and wanting rapid deliveries (Egypt and India).

Your enthusiasm regarding the AMCA is appreciated, however there won't be any prototype by 2017-18 nor is one expected that quickly. They haven't even selected an engine supplier yet to incorporate into the design and freeze it. An engine OEM down-select by the end of 2017 would seem more likely for a prototype first flight sometime around the middle of next decade conservatively speaking.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Jan 2016 09:48

brar_w wrote:I'm not going to pretend to predict what each and every nut and bolt is going to cost. I'll try one last time to explain what I had written. There was an article a page or so back, that claimed that Dassault is going to talk to the IN about a rafale deal. I laid out two options for the IN, if it is interested. One was to speed things up, since given a lengthy acquisition cycle and tender process they would be left in a situation much like the IAF with the C-17 where the OEM runs out of production orders before the IN decides one way. Another option to acquire the rafale would be to let the line close, and in a negotiate a deal with the Dassault to move it to India. I did not go into how realistic each scenario was, but just that the IN can take two paths given the situation in which Dassault finds itself in at the moment (single digit production per year) and customers that are now coming online and wanting rapid deliveries (Egypt and India).

Your enthusiasm regarding the AMCA is appreciated, however there won't be any prototype by 2017-18 nor is one expected that quickly. They haven't even selected an engine supplier yet to incorporate into the design and freeze it. An engine OEM down-select by the end of 2017 would seem more likely for a prototype first flight sometime around the middle of next decade conservatively speaking.

Well, we will see. I have a feeling that AMCA technology demonstrator is going to be flying much sooner than expected. Tejas Mk1A was chosen in part because MoD wanted more manpower working on the AMCA project instead of Tejas Mk2. Admittedly, this also gives some credence to your theory about moving some parts of the assembly line to India, because IN knows it might not get the Naval Mk2 in time, which is what it wants for INS Vishal. Hence Raffle-M over F-35 to also help bring down cost for IAF to purchase the +100 that they have always wanted. Assuming 1-2 squads for Navy would be 40-50 Aircraft, and then maybe enough for IAF to get overall sum of 200 aircraft, would be enough to shift the assembly, but not key subsystem, line...

Still think it is a bad idea to waste so much foreign reserves on what is, at the end of the day, the most expensive fighter aircraft in the world. Especially since it is already outdated to 5th generation fighters that will be wildly available in many air-forces by the time the first Raffle squad would even become operational.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2016 09:54

I have a feeling that AMCA technology demonstrator is going to be flying much sooner than expected.

And you base those feeling on?

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Jan 2016 10:17

brar_w wrote:
I have a feeling that AMCA technology demonstrator is going to be flying much sooner than expected.
And you base those feeling on?

Read my post:

Tejas Mk1A was chosen in part because MoD wanted more manpower working on the AMCA project instead of Tejas Mk2.

ADA is working on AMCA, it is their number one mission.

Then if you read recent remarks at Aero India 2015.

http://www.brahmand.com/news/DRDO-in-ta ... /1/10.html

The project, which is for a single-engine, twin-seater aircraft, is on track and the design configuration has been frozen, K Tamilmani, Chief Controller R&D (Aero) of DRDO, said Thursday on the sidelines of the Aero India air show.

Stating that the basic technology required for executing the AMCA project was available with it, he said DRDO was building on the capabilities and experience gathered in the development of the Light Combat Aircraft, Tejas.

AMCA would be a medium fifth-generation fighter aircraft, Tamilmani said, adding that the first four prototypes are expected in 2019.

The basic design configuration has been frozen after wind- tunnel testing and there are three critical technologies to be developed -- stealth, thrust vectoring and super cruise, he said.

So straight from the mouth of the R&D(Aero) Chief at DRDO, that the design has been frozen and that DRDO has the basic technologies required. 4 Prototypes by 2019, means that at least one technology demonstrator will be soon or maybe is secretly already here. I am expecting a reveal at Aero India 2017 of a much larger technology demonstrator, if MoD feels comfortable showing it off.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Jan 2016 10:28

From today's media reports.Discussions haven't been concluded.Main sticking point.
French say $12B.India says $5B....for just 36 aircraft. India also says that an MKI costs half as much as a Rafale and that too with Russian ToT.

Going by the French cost it still works out to $300M a pop! Our estimate is around $125M-$130M.
Janes' recently had an incredible price for an order for SU-35s for the RuAF,50 of them for just $800M!
Approx 124 SU-34s are also on order,Algeria looking for 40+.This will keep order books full until 2020 it says.

I think that unless France and India split the diff,around $7-7.5B,the deal will collapse. Reg. the naval version of the Raffy,at these prices absurd.The IN isn't so profligate. By 2025,the JSF should've passed al dev. problems and would've been in service with the USN (conventional version if cats are planned) and available at arpund $125-150M.One will also arrive by then.A further dev. of the 29K,TVC, with more composites,stealth features ,AESA,etc.,etc.could also be developed esp. as the RuN is acquiring the 29K in large numbers. The IN should however plan the carrier to be able to accommodate any type currently in the pipeline/service.That's the beauty of a CV,it can as the years go by induct newer types of aircraft. As someone (Brar I think) mentioned,the Raffy will be out of prod.

PS:Until the LCA is perfected and ins ervice in sufficient numbers,forget anbout an early arrival of the AMCA.It is not going to leapfrog over the LCXA programme,the AIF needs the LCA in large numbers to replace the 200+ MIG types being retired. The AMCA will also be far more expensive and is meant to eventually replace the 29s,M2Ks and fill in numbers reqd. for the MMRCA role which the Raffy is currently the stop-gap arrangement.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Jan 2016 10:38

Philip wrote:From today's media reports.Discussions haven't been concluded.Main sticking point.
French say $12B.India says $5B....for just 36 aircraft. India also says that an MKI costs half as much as a Rafale and that too with Russian ToT.

I doubt the price difference quoted is so large else the negotiation has ended long time back

$8 billion is a good value counting 5-10 years of spares , 90 % uptime , hardwire for nuclear role and 50 % offset ( excluding other things like training etc )

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2016 10:47

^ As per the last reports the 50% offset has been reduced back to 30%.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2016 11:35

Wecome back Philip. Watch Netaji thread.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Jan 2016 12:12

brar_w wrote:^ As per the last reports the 50% offset has been reduced back to 30%.

Yes many reports with many different thing said , What ever be the case Rafale negotiation will go down the wire , must be nail biting moment for both

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 23 Jan 2016 12:51

Think its time to make a counter offer. If 36 Rafales cost 10 billion, we must offer 360 LCAs to France for the same price.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Jan 2016 20:38

Talks on for Rafale pact

DINAKAR PERI

With French President François Hollande scheduled to arrive in India on January 24 as the chief guest for the Republic Day parade, India and France are holding hectic discussions to conclude the government- to-government (G-to-G) agreement for the direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets.

Speaking to the media in New Delhi on Friday, French Ambassador Francois Richier termed them “complex negotiations”, and said he was “hopeful” of an agreement.

However, officials say the final deal is unlikely to be concluded during the visit due to differences over pricing.

A senior government official said that efforts are on to reduce the price by 20 per cent. Currently the cost per aircraft is above Euro 100 million which translates to about Rs. 800 crore along with the weapons package. In comparison a Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraft which India is assembling through technology transfer from Russia costs less than half, raising questions on the cost.

A French team of government and Dassault officials has been in Delhi for the last few days carrying out talks with their Indian counterparts. In addition, Dassualt CEO Eric Tripper and other French defence industry heads are accompanying Mr. Hollande to India.

Speaking in Paris last week, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian hoped that the deal could be concluded during the visit.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Jan 2016 20:43

Suspense continues over France and India's Rafale fighter plane deal

By PTI | 22 Jan, 2016

NEW DELHI: Suspense over the multi-billion dollar Rafale fighter plane deal continued today as French Ambassador here Francois Richier said a "complex negotiation" is going on, just two days ahead of the visit of his President Francois Hollande to India.

"The discussions are taking place at present. So I cannot say what will be the outcome of this. They are not finalised. Indeed it is a complex negotiation," Richier told reporters here.

The envoy said, "Of course I will share with you that I am hopeful. But hopeful does not mean we have certitude. Work is being conducted with a lot of energy."

An inter-government framework agreement is expected to be signed during the visit of Hollande but a final contract will take time as the cost negotiations are still on.

"There will be an inter-government agreement because it is a government to government negotiation. Everything will be within this IGA and its annexure. I can confirm this because it is no surprise," he said.

Richier later clarified that he did not mean that the IGA will be signed for sure during the visit.

Defence sources said the main problem relates to the cost issue. It is expected that the final contract for the 36 aircraft, including its missile system and others, will cost around Rs 60,000 crore.

Air Marshal Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria is heading the price negotiations from the Indian side.

Meanwhile, asked about the co-development project of a short range surface-to-air missile (SR-SAM) by the Defence Research and Development Organisation ( DRDO) with MBDA of France, the Ambassador said, "We are working on it.

"Of course, we expect a decision on this by the Indian side. May be not now but in the future," he said.

Replying to a query on possible order for more Scorpene submarines besides the six already under construction, Richier said, "Let us focus on Rafale for now."

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Jan 2016 22:47

Looking at the offset issue etc. of the Raffy,I have a novel idea about finding FGFA funding.Offer the LCA TOT as part in a free/part barter exchange ! Russia has no MIG-21 replacement at all of which hundreds ,perhaps a 1000 are still in service worldwide and require replacing.It could be marketed /built as a JV between MIG and HAL. O It would need aRu engine and some other inputs,but very doable. Both sides win.

I don't know how this Raffy deal will sail through unless there is a compromise by the French.With the Rupee sliding every day,the price in forex terms is simply going up. This deal will also impact heavily upon other IAF requirements and I fear that the LCA development may take a hit. Of course, there will be nothing in the kitty for the FGFA and peanuts thrown to the AMCA.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Jan 2016 23:37

Philip wrote:Looking at the offset issue etc. of the Raffy,I have a novel idea about finding FGFA funding.Offer the LCA TOT as part in a free/part barter exchange ! Russia has no MIG-21 replacement at all of which hundreds ,perhaps a 1000 are still in service worldwide and require replacing.It could be marketed /built as a JV between MIG and HAL. O It would need aRu engine and some other inputs,but very doable. Both sides win.

Russia doesn't need a MiG-21 replacement. Unlike the Soviet Union, it doesn't have a dense military footprint in East Germany where a forward based light fighter would excel. Given the country's geography, there's good reason for the RuAF fielding the longest ranged fighters of any nation (an operational requirement that has carried forward to the PAK FA). And if it needs a cheap alternative for counter-insurgency and similar unconventional duties such as in Syria, it has the option of producing an up-engined derivative of the Yak-130. I doubt they have any interest in going through the hassle of integrating a new engine, actuators, radar and so on the Tejas.

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 24 Jan 2016 02:26

Viv S wrote:
Philip wrote:Looking at the offset issue etc. of the Raffy,I have a novel idea about finding FGFA funding.Offer the LCA TOT as part in a free/part barter exchange ! Russia has no MIG-21 replacement at all of which hundreds ,perhaps a 1000 are still in service worldwide and require replacing.It could be marketed /built as a JV between MIG and HAL. O It would need aRu engine and some other inputs,but very doable. Both sides win.
Russia doesn't need a MiG-21 replacement. Unlike the Soviet Union, it doesn't have a dense military footprint in East Germany where a forward based light fighter would excel. Given the country's geography, there's good reason for the RuAF fielding the longest ranged fighters of any nation (an operational requirement that has carried forward to the PAK FA). And if it needs a cheap alternative for counter-insurgency and similar unconventional duties such as in Syria, it has the option of producing an up-engined derivative of the Yak-130. I doubt they have any interest in going through the hassle of integrating a new engine, actuators, radar and so on the Tejas.

Completely agree if Russian wants a replacement for Mig 21 the Russian aerospace industry is more than capable to make one themselves no need for a foreign fighter

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Jan 2016 08:43

Read what I said carefully.It has no single engined light fighter MIG-21 class supersonic for export/for its own use.HAL series prod.at the rate of 8/yr will never fill our reqs satisfactorily. There is a huge market for a cheap light fighter LCA class .Replacement of MIG-21s globally with an LCA JV where faster prod from a partner who knows how to also win exports should be examined. The Yak trainer can't be a Mach 2 MIG-21 replacement. Is it the equiv of our Bison? Nyet.
The idea if found interesting by the Rus could offset our share of development costs for the 5th-gen bird.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 24 Jan 2016 08:58

Philip wrote:Read what I said carefully.It has no single engined light fighter MIG-21 class supersonic for export/for its own use.HAL series prod.at the rate of 8/yr will never fill our reqs satisfactorily. There is a huge market for a cheap light fighter LCA class .Replacement of MIG-21s globally with an LCA JV where faster prod from a partner who knows how to also win exports should be examined. The Yak trainer can't be a Mach 2 MIG-21 replacement. Is it the equiv of our Bison? Nyet.
The idea if found interesting by the Rus could offset our share of development costs for the 5th-gen bird.

Please read my post carefully - Russia doesn't need a single engined light MiG-21 class supersonic fighter. If it did, it would have build one by now. Even the MiG-35 has only been supported to keep the associated companies from going belly-up.

And yes the market for the Tejas is large, but its not all-encompassing. Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Switzerland, Austria, Bulgaria and even Ukraine yes, but unfortunately not Russia.

As far as exports are concerned, we can do them ourselves. Not that tying up with Russia would enhance the Tejas' saleability (esp. vis a vis Boeing or BAE).

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 24 Jan 2016 10:10

Meanwhile, updates on UAE's Rafales

link

The well-informed French source stated that in its efforts to reduce the costs of the deal and finalize the agreement the French government has waived military service fees involved in the contract reducing the overall cost by 10 percent.

"To facilitate the Rafale deal, the government has taken over the 'airco' cost of training, maintenance support and other military-provided services to reduce the cost for the UAE," he said.

The UAE source stated that the expected cost of each aircraft is expected to be around $250 million for a total cost of $15 billion.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 24 Jan 2016 10:15

The Hindu claims price/plane is Rs 800 crore, efforts are on to reduce prices by 20%. 800 crore would be ~$120M per plane - guessing this is just the flyaway cost.

India-France talks on track for Rafale deal

A senior government official said that efforts are on to reduce the price by 20 per cent. Currently the cost per aircraft is above Euro 100 million which translates to about Rs. 800 crore along with the weapons package. In comparison a Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraft which India is assembling through technology transfer from Russia costs less than half, raising questions on the cost.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 24 Jan 2016 10:30

Rafale jet deal on right track, says French President Hollande ahead of India visit

French President Francois Hollande on Sunday said the multi-billion dollar Rafale jet deal is on “right track”, but agreed that technicalities will time.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jan 2016 10:49

Nikhil T wrote:The Hindu claims price/plane is Rs 800 crore, efforts are on to reduce prices by 20%. 800 crore would be ~$120M per plane - guessing this is just the flyaway cost.

India-France talks on track for Rafale deal
A senior government official said that efforts are on to reduce the price by 20 per cent. Currently the cost per aircraft is above Euro 100 million which translates to about Rs. 800 crore along with the weapons package. In comparison a Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraft which India is assembling through technology transfer from Russia costs less than half, raising questions on the cost.

So the cost India wants Rafale would be around ~ $100 million with weapons compared to $120 million , still a good buy , MKI costs around $60 million

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jan 2016 10:52

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 703755.cms

"The Rafale is a major project for India and France. It will pave the way for an unprecedented industrial and technological cooperation, including 'Make in India', for the next 40 years."

Agreeing on the technicalities of this arrangement obviously takes time, but we are on the right track", Hollande told PTI in an interview ahead of his visit beginning today.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 24 Jan 2016 11:32

if we do buy this, lets buy enough for 3-4 squadrons.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jan 2016 11:43

Viv S wrote:How would a naval fighter employ a free-fall nuclear weapon in practice? All of coastal Pakistan is already within range of our Jamnagar-based Su-30MKIs. And an Indian CBG isn't likely to make it to within strike range of the Chinese mainland without incident. N-tipped cruise missile can be integrated on any fighter jet including the MiG-29K.

ny customization requiring the OEM to be involved is a non-starter - no outsider will be allowed any level of access to India's nuclear weaponry or associated hardware. Especially when plenty of viable alternatives are available to perform the same task (read: MKI, sub/surface-launched Nirbhay).

Having freefall bomb gives the flexibility to employ these weapons if required , ofcourse integrating cruise missile or other standoff weapons is also needed , Rafale would have larger radius and greater penetrating capability.

Land based capability is needed for sure but a CBG is always on the move hence flexibility of employment is much greater and why limit the next 40 years of CBG ops to China or Pakistan , CBG will give us the flexibility to employ nuclear deterrent any where if need be.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jan 2016 12:02

Karan M wrote:if we do buy this, lets buy enough for 3-4 squadrons.

Sure, if we can afford it and the prices are reasonable..

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 24 Jan 2016 17:35

Austin wrote:Having freefall bomb gives the flexibility to employ these weapons if required , ofcourse integrating cruise missile or other standoff weapons is also needed , Rafale would have larger radius and greater penetrating capability.

Land based capability is needed for sure but a CBG is always on the move hence flexibility of employment is much greater and why limit the next 40 years of CBG ops to China or Pakistan , CBG will give us the flexibility to employ nuclear deterrent any where if need be.

The Nirbhay has a range of ~ 1,000 km. The Rafale will only provide marginal utility as far as range is concerned. And when it comes to free-fall nuclear weapons, its out-ranged by the Su-30MKI & PAK FA.

That also means saddling the service with an aircraft devoid of any VLO capability for the next 40 years. I don't think the MoD will permit a fourth fighter type to be integrated, when the Navy has a grand total of only three carriers.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 24 Jan 2016 18:39

For the LCC costs of 36 Rafales we can have 10,000 Nirbahy and 10,000 Prahaar missiles. I wonder what will be more effective?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Jan 2016 22:55

Please read and understand my posts pl. LCA exports will be dismal if left to our rate of prod. and glorious track record of being a world-class arms exporter. It is to be seen if HAL can deliver the goods even for the IAF! Israel would be an ideal JV partner,but there would be many nations (Malaysia,Indonesia,etc.) that would not want to deal with Israel,hence Russia. Once again,it is for export to nations that operate/operated thousands of MIG-21s,etc.,not neccessarily for the RuAF which already has defined the MIG-29/35 as the "light" end of its aerial "stick".

The only offer to date is from SAAB ,to assist in the LCA dev.,but has its own competitor in the Gripen. If HAL/ADA can leverage the LCA design into a modified MK-2 with stealth features ,it could be a game changer,both capability and cost wise.

So the Rafale deal has been postponed for further discussions but is still "on track".Thus far the "track" seems to be a circular one! "Your price our price" ad nauseum.

But the price still beggars the Q,since the Raffy is most of the time being touted more for strike missions that air dominance,whether cheaper alternatives would suffice,available in much larger number ,giving more "bang for the buck".

I once again quote the last CNO of the USN Adm Greenert,about "bomb trucks" being able to do the business instead of expensive "sports cars",.With the latest gen of smart munitions and LR PGMs like BMos,KH series,etc.,even 4++ upgraded M2Ks.MIG-29s,can do the business.Upgraded legacy Jags (why such an inordinate delay?) can play a v.useful part too and our MKIs,Super Sukhois with BMos,outperform the non-BMos Rafale. Why,VIV S has mentioned in an above post that the Yak-!30 trainer can do the (strike) business for CIS,etc. missions. Armed Hawks in IAF colours could indeed add their weight for the close support/GA mission.

Regrettably,we are stuck with this TINA mindset of the IAF. 36 Rafales will be detrimental to the avowed goal of operating 45 sqds.There will be little money left over for other equally important priorities. Unless the price is reduced drastically,this does not make sense.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 24 Jan 2016 23:00

Austin wrote: So the cost India wants Rafale would be around ~ $100 million with weapons compared to $120 million , still a good buy , MKI costs around $60 million

There is no indication that this is a cost including weapons and any other package. It could be the cost of just the aircraft as in a unit fly-away cost i.e. $4.3 Billion ( $120 Million x 36 ) + Weapons package, + Support package + atleast 30% offset cost = $9 - $12 Billion.

Lets take a nominal value of Dassault's spare contribution towards O&S @ $8,000 - $9000 per hour (its likely less) over 100,000 hours (Fleet of 36 for 10 years). This comes to around $ 1 Billion for spares. Lets add a 50% margin and add that to the $4.3 Billion. We get a bit less than $6 Billion plus a weapons package and added cost to support the offset...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jan 2016 23:08

They are saying aircraft + weapons excluding support maintenance spares etc, likely $80 million for aircraft and $19-20 million for weapon

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 24 Jan 2016 23:10

Kashi wrote:
Karan M wrote:if we do buy this, lets buy enough for 3-4 squadrons.
Sure, if we can afford it and the prices are reasonable..

If you buy 36, then you have to shoehorn in a deal for a reasonable price for a future follow on buy too.. otherwise 36 is nothing but a "toy" force.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 24 Jan 2016 23:13

Austin wrote:They are saying aircraft + weapons excluding support maintenance spares etc, likely $80 million for aircraft and $19-20 million for weapon

Well, I always thought that the weapons package would be diverse and include a lot of weapons. MICA-RF, IR, and Meteor for air-air, plus a whole lot of different quality PGM's including perhaps the storm shadow. That would take the weapons package to well above the $700 or so million your math gets us to.