The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2016 06:24

Graphic:

Ivan Sidorenko ‏@IvanSidorenko1 3h3 hours ago

#Syria #DeirEzZor #SAA #SyrianArmy #SyrianRepublicanGuard #RepublicanGuard With 4 #ISIS #ISIL #Daesh #IS Heads.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 06:24

turkey is moving to put its munna FSA in control of the crucial border crossings . sawran is 15km east of azaz border crossing and 5km NW of dabiq.

Hassan Ridha Retweeted
taylieli ‏@taylieli 7h7 hours ago
Rumours that #fsa is going2 start a wide-scale operation against #Isil towards Sawran, northern #Aleppo with support of #Turkish howitzers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 06:29

if this 7km gap between SAA and YPG is closed for good, the Aleppo west and Idlib rebels will lose access to azaz border area and have to rely on the idlib border alone which I think is mountainous and unsuitable for truck convoys. on the +ve side there aint no IS in idlib so they will have run of place unlike the free-for-all cagefight with 25 other players in aleppo north now ongoing.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 06:35

these is ground pic of latakia base confirming the 4 su35 and no sign of the earlier 4 su30, so its just a rotation, not a buildup.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2016 06:43

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Turkey is shelling civilian areas in Syria from a border outpost. Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov showed video footage depicting the attacks at a press conference.

"This facility is a Turkish border outpost, which did not have any firing points a few months ago," he said, adding that "This is called fact. This is irrefutable proof that the Turkish Armed Forces are shelling settlements on the Syrian border from heavy artillery systems.”

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2016 06:48

The Su-30s may have moved to the new base in Kurdistan near Terrordogan border while all the attention is on the new blue beauties. I have a feeling that some Turkish heavy artillery units are heading for Houristan.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 07:05

Peace Talks in Geneva - Yak Yak Yak...

member_29325 · Post by **member_29325** » 02 Feb 2016 07:07

Turks are shelling across the syrian border and pretending that they are doing it because someone from syria is shooting at border schools -- such uttter pakiness in display from the turks. Of course, turdogan thinks he is starting byzantium V 2.0 so not too surprising.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2016 07:30

Why did Russians agree to these biss talks? Obviously its a ploy to impose a Ceasefire, when the turds are losing, hain?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 07:53

they have made it very clear ops will go on despite any peace talks until the final settlement is made.

member_29325 · Post by **member_29325** » 02 Feb 2016 07:54

Russians have learnt a few lessons about p*ss negotiations where the US/NATO are involved, after the Ukraine experience. Treachery and reneging on agreements are the baseline of such negotiations. Good thinking there to not stop any ops against the KSA-USA run "rebel" scumbags.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 07:57

These talks are to go on for 06 months. Russia knows that as long as it is the Syrians talking to the Turks who are taking inputs from the Rebels backed by the Saudis without the Kurds who should have been a party - these talks mean nothing conclusive. So why interrupt the talks for which the rebels actually landed up in Geneva without visas.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Feb 2016 08:10

French Defence Ministry assesment of Syrian campaign to their parliament

French Defense Ministry assesses the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, and Russia's actions in Syria

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1712265.html

December 15th, 2015 French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian spoke before the commission on defense, armed forces and Foreign Affairs of the French Parliament. During the hearing, they were presented some interesting facts about the situation in Syria, though not without its comical absurdity.

Speaking about the general situation in Syria and the presence there of Russian troops, the minister said that the Russian group includes "40 fighters at the airport of Latakia," and that the cruiser "Moscow" put the missile attacks by terrorists. No less interesting are some absurd statement about the Russian long-range aviation, which for the bombing in Syria takes off from an airfield in Mozdok ... in southern Georgia. According to him, as of mid-December to an "Islamic state" was applied 25-30% of all Russian air strikes, compared with 5% previously.

Speaking about cooperation with Russia on the Syrian issue, Le Drian said that it is not a "coalition", but rather the "coordination." And the question is how, together with Russia can work together to crush the "IG", the more that this structure is recognized as a common enemy of both countries.

Responding to questions from senators, the minister also expressed some interesting considerations. Speaking about the reasons for which Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict, he noted the following:

Syria has for a long time been considered Russia as a strategic region which guarantees its access to the warm seas.
For Russia, it is a question of its status
Among the warring forces in Syria has come from Russia, which may threaten the security of the country.

It is interesting that, according to the minister, Russia has long overestimated the strength and Assad loyalists, and she had to intervene earlier. Also it notes that the scope of the air operation has created some difficulties for the French Air Force in terms of aircraft weapons, due to their high consumption. On November 13 (December 16) in the fighting were used 150 ammunition, and with September 2014 - more than 770. But the Defense Department hopes that the deficit will not occur, and for the purchase of ammunition in the budget in 2016 is planned an additional 80 million euros. For the first time it has been refined specific goals: November destroyed four control center "IG", three training center, a warehouse for ammunition, weapons cache and several oil wells and convoys appliances.

No less interesting was the presentation to the parliament deputy chief of the General Staff of the French on the conduct of operations, General Didier Castres (Didier Castres), which assess involved in the Syrian conflict. Thus, the number of Iranian soldiers in the face of divisions "IRGC" movement "Hezbollah", the various Shia, Iraqi, Pakistani and Afghan militias is estimated at 10-15 thousand. People. Russian group in Syria is estimated at 4000-6000 person with 40 warplanes and 30 helicopters. In accordance with the old agreements, the number of Turkish troops in northern Iraq, is estimated at 1200-1500 people. Also, presumably, in the theater of the presence of US special forces and the Gulf.

An interesting interpretation of the general reasons why Russia became the actor in the Syrian conflict. The first reason - a demonstration of their power and proof of a modern army, the subject of which can be traced since the annexation of the Crimea. This is not the army of the Chechen war, it can carry out complex operations with diverse forces outside the country. This demonstration seems to be directed against NATO. The second reason - Russia's intention to be a key player in the process of reformatting the Middle East as well as access to ports in warm seas. And finally, the threat posed by radical Islamists - in Syria fighting about 4,000 Russian-speaking fighters, of which 2,000 came from Russia.

Interesting figures are relatively real threat from the "IG". So, it was otfiksirovano prohalifatskih approximately 2,700 sites in French, which is about a quarter of the total number of such electronic resources. Every day, these sites and pages generate about 41,000 tweets that scan 2.8 million "followers".

It was noted that Iraq managed to produce 15,000 local soldiers of the armed forces who are fighting against the "IG". At the same time in Syria it is very difficult to find reliable people who can be trusted with weapons. The difficulty is also searching for allies among the local forces. In the Iraqi Kurdistan has 145 thousand. Armed Kurds (interestingly, hereinafter referred to answering the question, the figure of 140 thousand. Armed Kurds in Iraq) fighting in Syria are 7-8 thousand. Kurds.

habal · Post by **habal** » 02 Feb 2016 08:26

türkiyé ke kartoot

TURKISH outpost artillery firing their weapons and the trajectory to where the shells landed in Syria

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Feb 2016 09:58

The biggest mistake the US/NATO made was to underestimate the Russian mil capability which we on BRF have been monitoring for a long time. Our SU-30s outperforming US F-15s,etc. sev. yrs ago was a warning shot.Further devs like BMos,etc have no Western equiv. period. The last decade of concerted effort by Putin to build up Russian mil strength both in numbers and capability has not been monitored enough by Western "radar screens". Crimea and the UKR response by Ruussia was the first rude shock and the speed and lethality on display in Syria have confounded Western mil analysts,esp. using petty little corvettes in the land-locked Caspian Sea,where they are used principally for policing,to fire cruise missiles 2000+ kms away ,something that the USN cannot do with its much vaunted LCS ships ,experiencing teething troubles at the moment.

Politically though the message is even more evident. Russia demands its rightful place at the high table determining the outcome of global crises,esp in the MEast where it has high stakes. With the Crimea as an example,Latakia,Tartus and its Syrian/Meditt footprint is as vital to it as the Crimea. The ni**er in the woodpile though is Turkey,which is playing the part of rogue state to Paki perfection. No wonder the two nations get along so well as bum-chums.The Sultan's megalaomania has the potential; to escalate the conflict dramatically ,and his options for mischief are many.he could further his goal of destroying the Kurds,keep on surreptitiously assisting ISIS and tickling up the Russians in sensitive zones of their anatomy. We've yet to see the worst of the Turks.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 10:01

i wonder what will happen if russia announces basing a couple of older delta4 SSBN in tartous to patrol the med armed with a mix of kalibr and sineva missiles. america has likewise forward based her n-subs in UK and guam and perhaps japan too in secret....quite a threat to the rodina.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 10:10

SAA is reported to have reached the halfway point of that chicken neck between aleppo and zahraa. fierce clashes. seems irani badr militias were built up in a industrial city najjaf just north of the main city and launched from there. the terrain is flat farmland with a few small villages . the hills start only after zahraa. so other than natural berms formed by roads or artificial ones constructed by the JN , there is no more defensible territory to stop the linkup with SAA pocket and YPG in zahraa....a gap of 4km now.

they should be able to cut the chicken neck in say 2 days. sleeping in the day while RuAF pounds rebel strongpoints and creeping forward in all directions at night under artillery support...not exactly 101st airborne but "you got to work with the resources you have"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 10:22

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 10:46

Singha wrote:SAA is reported to have reached the halfway point of that chicken neck between aleppo and zahraa. fierce clashes. seems irani badr militias were built up in a industrial city najjaf just north of the main city and launched from there. the terrain is flat farmland with a few small villages . the hills start only after zahraa. so other than natural berms formed by roads or artificial ones constructed by the JN , there is no more defensible territory to stop the linkup with SAA pocket and YPG in zahraa....a gap of 4km now.

they should be able to cut the chicken neck in say 2 days. sleeping in the day while RuAF pounds rebel strongpoints and creeping forward in all directions at night under artillery support...not exactly 101st airborne but "you got to work with the resources you have"

More on this - It seems Hardetnin village has been taken by SAA and they have entered Raytan (both West of yestrday's advances in Northern Aleppo).

The link up with Zahraa will be possible through fields quickly if Raytan falls to SAA but to have a road link up they will need to take Bayanoun town further West of Raytan or take the road further north going through Mayer. The capture of these towns may take longer.

However, the arty shelling and RuAF bombing it seems has been unprecedented. Plus it is all flat plains and MLRS thermobaric fireworks will be very effective in these parts.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 10:55

a convoy worked over, perhaps by a pair of frogfoots coming in low given the precision of the strikes

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 10:57

heavy artillery is the solution to most problems. none of these concrete villages can survive the pounding of a properly supplied 18 gun regiment. most jihadis will give up and creep away after a few hours of unrelenting bombing and frogfoots prowling around picking off any convoys attempting to retreat.

if linkup occurs:
the FSA in north aleppo will be caught between YPG, SAA and ISIS with only turkish border left for survival. even with turki shelling support they would not be able to hold out for long, when RuAF turns to them in support of YPG pressuring azaz town

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 12:07

Even the ISIS is giving the FSA umbrella a lot of pain in that corridor. YPG is all set for Azaz.

In the video above you can see some rats running for their life in the initial few seconds.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 12:16

deejay wrote:Even the ISIS is giving the FSA umbrella a lot of pain in that corridor. YPG is all set for Azaz.

In the video above you can see some rats running for their life in the initial few seconds.

For clarity sake I am posting the map for Northern Aleppo. The ground situation has already changed with SAA taking Hardatnin and almost in Rityan. Map from Al Masdar news site.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 12:18

^^ haritan was viciously bombed yesterday using parachute bombs.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 13:06

Published on Feb 1, 2016
Russia has performed an observation flight over Turkish airspace from Monday through Friday. According to a Russian senior defense ministry official, a group of Russian inspectors will conduct the operation on board a Russian An-B30 aircraft. The flight is within the framework of the Open Skies Treaty. This is the first observation flight by Russian aircraft over the airspace of treaty members in 2016.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 13:50

A nice write up on the march towards Zahraa for SAA in Al Masdar explaining the challenges enroute

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syr ... leppo-map/

Yesterday, Syrian government troops – heavily aided by various Shiite paramilitaries – stormed and captured the village of Tall Jibin after launching a surprise offensive in northern Aleppo. Just a few hours later, the 4th Mechanized Division of the Syrian Arab Army launched another attack further south, thus seizing several farms in al-Mallah.

Since October of 2015, the Syrian Army has been heavily embattled with ISIS and Jaish al-Fateh in the eastern and southern countryside of Aleppo respectively. However, the northern Aleppo frontline been remarkably quite over the past year as the frontline had settled for a stalemate. Nevertheless, today’s advance hints at the Syrian Government finally pushing to break a persistent Islamist siege on the predominately Shiite towns of Nubl and Zahraa which has lasted since the summer of 2012.

Just a few miles split Nubl & Zahraa from the government-held mainland in Aleppo; however, the area is heavily mined and littered with improvised traps placed by local Islamist rebels. The capture of Tall Jibin indicates that government troops are attempting to push around the mined area on the outskirts of Aleppo city as to outflank rebels and push towards the long-term besieged towns of Nubl and Zahraa.

If the Syrian Army was to carry out this pincer maneuver with this success, it would not only allow for supplies to reach the inhabitants of Nubl and al-Zahraa but also block Turkish supplies from flowing through Azaz onto rebel-held suburbs of Aleppo. As to add insult to injury, government troops at al-Mallah are just a few miles from having encircled rebels inside Aleppo city entirely. Effectively, Islamist rebels in Aleppo – largely represented by Jaish al-Fateh – could easily find themselves unable to protect several vulnerable frontlines across the province.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Feb 2016 14:06

Northern Aleppo:

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha now32 seconds ago
#RuAF #SyAAF #SAA bombard Al-Tamoura, Hayan, Rityan, Bayanoun & other militant positions on the Azaz - #Aleppo highway

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha now1 hour ago
Rityan seems to be the next target for #SAA

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha now2 minutes ago
#SAA have entered Rityan and has taken control of parts of the town

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha now1 minute ago
Militants call for people not to use the Azaz - #Aleppo highway due to intense bombardment by #SAA & #RuAF/#SyAAF

Jobar, Damascus though its only a rubble now.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syr ... nd-center/

Tal Bab Eastern Aleppo:

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha now39 minutes ago
As #SAA fights #JN #AQ in the north, Tiger Forces launch assault on #IS in east #Aleppo countryside

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha now17 minutes ago
20 air raids on Al-Bab & surroundings in east #Aleppo

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 14:07

^^ you made a good point about needing to control roads to get significant traction....the last attempt spoken of below was in winter 2014 i think..tried to creep on foot across the fields.

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
Last attempt to break Nubl siege #NDF & #Hezbollah advanced (w/o armour) during a fog, this time #SAA/allies utilise heavy artillery & #RuAF

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 18:08

asylum seekers on a train on the hunt for gori flesh
https://www.rt.com/news/330967-germany- ... ack-train/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 18:26

khaled g.alkhateb ‏@KhaledgAlkhateb 1h1 hour ago
privte : #syrianarmy away 3 km from breaking #nbol #alzahra's siege N #Aleppo after 3 years let's get back The real #freedom to #syrians

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 18:26

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 18:28

^^ defenders have sallied out of the besieged towns to harass the jihadi villages and try to link up in the middle with columns from other side.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 18:32

all the highways from azaz to the jihadis camped inside aleppo city are now blocked.
there is a real chance a good number can be engulfed and trapped.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2016 20:49

Singha wrote:asylum seekers on a train on the hunt for gori flesh
https://www.rt.com/news/330967-germany- ... ack-train/

These Pakis have severe mijjile trouble, hain? People need to educate the Krautistanis about the Partition jollies and 1st Kashmir genocide so they learn about the glories of Pakiness.

Once the train arrived at the station, Tom Roth called the police, but law enforcement officers said there was nothing they could do.

Hain? German polis have imported Pakis too?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 20:59

though on a very small scale, that aleppo map feels like the huge pincer of generals eremenko and rokosowsky closing behind the 6th army in stalingrad. gen hermann hoth was sent to break it from some 80km away but got stopped around 45km away near a small kalach river.

day by day the rus tightened the ring and set up huge field kitchens to torture the starving germans with the smell of food, ammo piled up to the point where 75mm field guns were taking shots at lone infantrymen.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 21:15

heavy old school bombardment of a jihadi occupied village

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9uNJNfClDo

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2016 21:22

First group of soldiers carefully walks in line, through the tread tracks left by the tank, presumably to avoid mines. Group following them walks carelessly in the middle...
What happened to the residents in all these videos? Both Yemen and Syria, there are never any civilians??

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 21:49

civilians are internally displaced to the coast, turkey, eu....mostly just ruins. IS on other hand unlike western rebels is holding civilians captive and will not let them leave. there are civilians in aleppo , idlib other big towns...the countrysides look deserted.

VV 100s of syaf + ruaf raids specifically targeted for that belt and lots of artillery for once by massing whatever is available. not much clashes i guess - rebels in that localized area are being overpowered by massing of force and heavy artillery like a conventional army would do.

Elijah J. Magnier
‏@EjmAlrai
#SAA #IRGC #Hezbollah eye contact with #Zahraa has been established few hours ago

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 21:52

by tomorrow morning the two prongs might effect a initial linkup.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Feb 2016 21:59

this lot will be eager to sally out and grab themselves as many heads and scalps as they can in this favourable situation, been caged up there and islanded from aleppo for more than 1 year

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 7h7 hours ago
There are thousands of #SAA #NDF and #Hezbollah inside #Nubul & #Zanraa. If these are set free, they will be a game changer in reef #Aleppo.