Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Tim · Post by **Tim** » 27 Jan 2004 23:39

Don't know how long this will be available.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/editorial/7793106.htm

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Jan 2004 00:04

from the above link:

As long as Khan's group delivered the goods, no state authority questioned its tactics.

This is a load of cr@p. How would any Govt not know what its scientists are doing in WMD related areas ?

If Pakistan lost all meaningful contact with the West, radical internal forces could prevail and the country could become a haven for terrorists

This is another myth. The radicalization of the polity and the armed forces was completed when Zia was in power and the Afghan crisis was at its peak. This happened right under US's nose.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 28 Jan 2004 00:13

In 1990, the United States canceled F-16 aircraft sales to Pakistan. Without these jets, Pakistan looked elsewhere for missiles that could carry nuclear weapons.

Yes. Let's blame everyone but ourselves...

suryavir · Post by **suryavir** » 28 Jan 2004 00:16

Tim,

You have been studying the Paki psychopathology for some time now. You can't possibly believe this charade, can you? This is about the dumbest and most transparent of lies the Pakis have concocted in their extended string of lies. The State Department has "chosen" to adopt this "see-no-evil, hear-no-evil, speak-no-evil" attitude about Pakistan. I hope you are not similarly constrained.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 28 Jan 2004 00:21

From Tim's link. My comments are in Bold Letters

This Monty Python type show is becoming stunning!

1) With legitimate routes of acquiring nuclear technology blocked, Pakistan turned to clandestine means -- cooperating with shady middlemen, financiers and front companies overseas. i.e. You (USG) forced us (Pakistan) into the nuclear black market. Its all your fault

2) Musharraf said the scientists probably had acted for their own financial gain, and he discounted any government involvement. i.e. Musharraf is clean. He may have been the command and control guy in GHQ at the time, but he was just following orders. Beg gave all the orders

3) If the investigation ultimately concludes nuclear technology was transferred to other nations, the challenge for Pakistan, as well as the United States and other Western powers, will be to determine how to help Pakistan become a more responsible nuclear power, rather than a rogue. i.e. You (USG) have to help me (Musharraf) clean up this mess

4) The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission's effort to produce bomb-grade plutonium was blocked in 1978 when Washington pressured France to cancel its sale of a plutonium reprocessing facility. This opened the door for Khan to obtain unprecedented latitude and state resources in his bid to acquire foreign technology. i.e. See Maw.. No Plutonium

5) By the early 1980s, Khan had mastered not only the production of highly enriched uranium, but also the art of acquiring dual-use technology, sensitive materials and critical equipment through a web of seedy black-market ties. The international contacts and procurement techniques Khan acquired during this period would later become worth their weight in gold to other nuclear aspirants. i.e. Khan is the man you want.. not Musharraf!

6) The United States played a critical role in changing Pakistan's nuclear practices. After the 1998 nuclear tests, Washington applied intense pressure on Islamabad to restrain nuclear exports, including the sharing of know-how. In February 2000, Pakistan revealed a new nuclear command and control structure to show it was operationally prepared to face India's growing military threat and to prove that it could be a responsible custodian of nuclear weapons. i.e. As long as Musharraf is given what he needs to keep Pakistan ready to fight India, he will be a responsible custodian of nuclear weapons

7) As the government tightened its control over all nuclear and missile-related organizations, Khan's laboratory resisted. This prompted the Musharraf government to replace the top officials of Khan's lab in 2001 and to appoint Khan to a ceremonial post. Musharraf's done all he can for you.. see Khan was put into a ceremonial post like Aziz

This period also saw Pakistan return to democracy. From 1988 to 1997, power was shared among a troika: the president, the prime minister and the army chief. The diffusion of authority enabled national security organizations to manipulate the system and become nearly autonomous. i.e. Democracy Bad! Musharraf Good!!

9) It is in America's interest not to let Pakistan and Musharraf falter. If Pakistan lost all meaningful contact with the West, radical internal forces could prevail and the country could become a haven for terrorists and a colossal exporter of weapons of mass destruction. i.e. Help Musharraf or else!

So what is missing here?

a) Chinese proliferation to Pakistan. It has been completely ignored.

b) those guys who met al Qaida people were from PAEC and not from Khan Research Labs. Bashir Mehmood was the director of the Khushab facility.

c) Even the barest details of what is being done to secure the remaining fissile material production facilities.

I ask you all with a straight face, who believes all this garbage.

Tim · Post by **Tim** » 28 Jan 2004 00:25

Sunil,

I believe b) is the issue of greatest interest.

Tim

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 28 Jan 2004 00:39

Tim,

Did you see the Platt's Nuclear Fuel report that I posted in this thread yesterday?

What's your take on that? Seems like the State Dept has deliberately steered focus away from Pakistani proliferation...

Raj Singh · Post by **Raj Singh** » 28 Jan 2004 00:39

Sunil S asks

I ask you all with a straight face, who believes all this garbage.

And Dr Tim Hoyt responds with ..

I believe b) is the issue of greatest interest.

Perhaps, John Umrao/Spinster is not the only spinner/spinster around.....(reference is to Dr Tim Hoyt's response)

Tim · Post by **Tim** » 28 Jan 2004 01:20

Rangudu,

I read it with interest. I think it's not just the State Department, however, that's having trouble dealing with the new disclosures. Others have posted interviews with analysts who are admitting their own shock - and the administration itself is probably pretty perplexed. After all, they made substantial commitments to Pakistan and expected some reliability on crucial issues - and the post-9/11 transfer of uranium enrichment capabilities to Libya can be called many things, but reliable (from a US standpoint) probably isn't one of them.

Tim

raniofjhansi · Post by **raniofjhansi** » 28 Jan 2004 01:23

trite from mr powell:

Powell said the administration intended to pursue aggressively reports that Libya obtained much of its nuclear technology from Pakistan.

"We know that there have been cases where individuals in Pakistan have worked in these areas," Powell said. yeah, mushy is clean sayeth mr powell

In the interim, administration officials gave no indication they were prepared to ease U.S. sanctions that have hurt Libya's economy. In fact, Powell said last week he still considered Gadhafi a dictator.
but, of course, mr powell does not consider mushy a dictator
Libya Nuclear Components Arrive in U.S.

Vivek_A · Post by **Vivek_A** » 28 Jan 2004 01:27

Originally posted by Tim:
Others have posted interviews with analysts who are admitting their own shock - and the administration itself is probably pretty perplexed.

Shocked to find out they were lied to? I'm shocked at their naivete.

After all, they made substantial commitments to Pakistan and expected some reliability on crucial issues

What happened to trust but verify?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 28 Jan 2004 01:33

It is extremely interesting that the response to the Pakistani proliferation has been (or at least appears to have been) monopolised by the SD, in terms of the line taken. It is of course quite clear to anybody who has been following what Pakistan has been doing for some years that it cannot have been purely by the greed of scientists.

Round up Beg/Gul/Nasir/Durrani/Mahmoud et al and ask them: "So you had no clue all this was happening?" It beggars belief that the US does not know that these people (and not just them) were the drivers of this prolif policy. They must know. Therefore, it must be that they've chosen to fudge the issue for other reasons. What those are is anyone's guess - but I'm beginning to get the feeling that they've decided to undo Pakistan (as we know it) from inside out, rather than via the conventional method.

So now we have this ridiculous situation where a country that did not have any nukes has the crap bombed out of it, while the one which certainly has the bombs, and had a more direct role behind than 9/11 than Iraq ever did, is being excused by the US.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Jan 2004 01:42

Originally posted by JE Menon:
What those are is anyone's guess - but I'm beginning to get the feeling that they've decided to undo Pakistan (as we know it) from inside out, rather than via the conventional method.

.

If you go back to TSJ posts this is what was being discussed.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 28 Jan 2004 01:44

Raj Singh: Assuming you are not taking a cheap shot, exactly what is your point?
What kind of spin you see in those staments?Thanks.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 28 Jan 2004 01:45

JEM,

It must be that they've chosen to fudge the issue for other reasons.

This is the billion dollar question. Why is the sole uberpower, which has taken actions, such as the Iraq invasion, opposed by overwhelming global opinion, which has ridden roughshod over its traditional allies (derisively calling some of them old europe}, why is this uberpower so very careful about upsetting the sensibilities of the Pakistani rogue nation. If any other country had committed half the transgressions that Pakistan has in the nuclear proliferation arena, the US would have bombed them to the stone age,aeons ago, claiming overriding national security concerns. But Pakistan for whatever reason in the eyes of the USG can do no wrong.

suryavir · Post by **suryavir** » 28 Jan 2004 01:57

What those are is anyone's guess - but I'm beginning to get the feeling that they've decided to undo Pakistan (as we know it) from inside out, rather than via the conventional method.

JEM, There is no doubt that that is exactly the strategy the US Admin. has adopted for Pakistan. And they probably believe that they are incrementally succeeding in that. However, I posit that in the final analysis, in this game of duplicity and chicanery the Americans are no match, and will be no match, against the Paks who are absolutely unequalled in this game. The Americans may be lulled into believing that they are quietly succeeding, but little do they realize that itself is a carefully calculated feint by the Pak masters.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 28 Jan 2004 02:00

Shocked to find out they were lied to? I'm shocked at their naivete.

Right! I remember on TV Dr Kissinger saying "They (pakistanis) will Lie to you.. They lied to me" and emphasizing that (how they lie) again and again that...Don't they even listen to ex-SOS?

Singh - Incredible! (That trite about Mr. Powell)

Raj Singh · Post by **Raj Singh** » 28 Jan 2004 02:39

Originally posted by Amber G
.
Assuming you are not taking a cheap shot,

For the record, it was not a cheap shot and nor I was taking a cheap shot. And frankly, I am not into those sort of things. ...................

P Babu · Post by **P Babu** » 28 Jan 2004 02:48

Originally posted by L Dev:
JEM,

It must be that they've chosen to fudge the issue for other reasons.
This is the billion dollar question. why is this uberpower so very careful about upsetting the sensibilities of the Pakistani rogue nation. But Pakistan for whatever reason in the eyes of the USG can do no wrong.

Maybe somebody promised to deliver "Somebody" around July/August just in time for election ? In return, somebody will put on the pacifier for a while. Maybe !!

jarugn · Post by **jarugn** » 28 Jan 2004 02:59

US took possesion of Libya nukes and missiles.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52824-2004Jan27.html?nav=hptoc_w

raniofjhansi · Post by **raniofjhansi** » 28 Jan 2004 03:01

rumor-- who knows, you may have something there prabhakar

Prateek · Post by **Prateek** » 28 Jan 2004 03:04

Pakistan defends nuclear record

By Paul Anderson
BBC correspondent in Islamabad

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3434489.stm

There is widespread interest in Pakistan's nuclear know-how Pakistan has defended its record as a nuclear-armed state, saying it has strong command-and-control systems.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 28 Jan 2004 03:19

Originally posted by JE Menon:
...I'm beginning to get the feeling that they've decided to undo Pakistan (as we know it) from inside out, rather than via the conventional method.

JEM, FWIW, this by Manzur (not the fox seen on Fox channel) Ejaz is along similar lines:

Apparently, behind the scene, the US has been pressuring Pakistan to change its behaviour with regard to its nuclear programme and its support for Kashmir Jihad. However, President Bush and other US officials have been supporting Gen Musharraf and his policies in the public. A two-tier policy is being implemented. A section of the US administration is campaigning against Pakistan’s policies discretely while the leadership is trying to raise similar questions about Pakistan but defend Gen Musharraf in public. From the US viewpoint, such a policy is quite rational. The US wants to reform the Pakistani state according to its own interests without causing any instability in the region.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 28 Jan 2004 03:29

From the BBC article, Masood Khan, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman says:

Under the tenure of President Musharraf, our nuclear programme is 100% safe

And because it is 100% safe for Pakistan, under President/Chief Executive/COAS Musharaff, we have bartered nuclear material for missiles from North Korea with C130s effecting the exchange and sold centrifuges for money to Libya also under President/ etc. etc. Musharaff. See it is 100% safe for Pakistan to do all this.

raniofjhansi · Post by **raniofjhansi** » 28 Jan 2004 03:34

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammed el-Baradei, has warned of a nuclear black market of ‘fantastic cleverness’.

...

But with Pakistan getting hopelessly mixed up with terrorists, it is only a matter of time that nuclear weapon knowhow will be passed relay race style for the right price. The first uneasy signs came when it became clear that Islamabad had helped North Korea get nukes in return for missiles. Lately, Libya and Iran have all but acknowledged Pakistan’s help in the same endeavour. Dr Khan and his associates are under arrest. It has been put out that they sold their knowledge to amass personal fortunes. Those who have followed the story from the Seventies will find it hard to believe that the Pakistani Bomb became possible in the Cold War years without ally America having a clue.

Mushroom cloud cover

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 28 Jan 2004 03:40

Garbage from KKhan in Dung:

Dr Qadeer linked to N-black market

Pakistani investigators have been told while the nuclear black marketeers arranged continued practical support from the senior Pakistani nuclear scientist for Iran, the deal for Libya got stuck because of Col Qaddafi’s decision a few years ago to freeze his programme, but no progress was made with Syria and Iraq after some initial contacts in mid nineties.

"They are shrewd nameless operators who routinely change their identities, <u>not like Pakistanis who operated upfront," </u> (TFTA! TFTA!

A senior official, familiar with the nuclear investigation, said that the initial observations from the IAEA, against some Pakistani scientists was so damning that President Musharraf decided to personally confront Dr A Q Khan in the last week of November last year.

"For the first time ever I saw tears in the President’s eyes, who thought that it was the worst ever breach of the nation’s trust," recalled a presidential aide, who said the president wanted to listen to Dr Khan’s side of the story, but he literally had no defence.

"It was no secret that big chunks of procurements are made through companies directly or indirectly operated by the son-in-law and the Dubai-based brother of Dr. Khan," , said a retired military intelligence official.

"It is a matter of record that for his daughters wedding the top nuclear scientist imported an exclusive US $400,000 Teflon Tent from Florida. He gifted BMWs and houses to his daughters. At one time he got so excited that he gifted a house in Islamabad to his palmist."

Dr A Q Khan’s visits to Iran were in the full knowledge of the ISI as its then chief Lt Gen Asad Durrani, like his boss Gen Aslam Beg, was among the main proponents of Pakistan-Iran defence cooperation.

"If Gen Durrani didn’t know what was going on between the KRL and the Iranian scientists in 1991 and 1992, then it was terrible miss for the ISI," the former ISI source said.

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2004-daily/28-01-2004/main/main2.htm

Sarma · Post by **Sarma** » 28 Jan 2004 04:24

The difference between Pakistan and other so called "rogue" nations is that it is willing to become a use and throw condom whenever US desires so. North Korea, Iraq and Libya (for a long time) were not willing to don that role.

Pakistan has given custody of its nukes to the US. The promise it has extracted in return is its exclusion from the rogues list. US has unprecedented access to the Pakistani territory and its army. Pakistani army is sacrificing its soldiers doing the dirty duty along the Pak-Afghan war. Why should America let go these guinea pigs? FBI has access to every bathroom and every corner of every Paki airport. Why should US lose such access?

Has any other rogue nation given US such facilities? Remember that Clinton had almost placed Pakistan on the list of state sponsors of terror. Immediately, Nawaz Sharif ran to Washington in his undee and did salaam and promised to take action on Taliban and other extremists.

Why should US lose a condom that gives genuine pleasure once in a while?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Jan 2004 04:27

Originally posted by Sarma:
The difference between Pakistan and other so called "rogue" nations is that it is willing to become a use and throw condom whenever US desires so. North Korea, Iraq and Libya (for a long time) were not willing to don that role.

That is what the US analysts say about TSP. They say a large proportion of people in TSP east of Indus actually like US and support it.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 28 Jan 2004 04:30

Originally posted by Amber G.:

Shocked to find out they were lied to? I'm shocked at their naivete.
Right! I remember on TV Dr Kissinger saying "They (pakistanis) will Lie to you.. They lied to me" and emphasizing that (how they lie) again and again that...Don't they even listen to ex-SOS?

Singh - Incredible! (That trite about Mr. Powell)

Amber,

When was this Kissinger quote from? Where did he make that statement?

Sarma · Post by **Sarma** » 28 Jan 2004 04:31

Acharya:

It is more a longing than a liking. The Urdu-driven culture of a lover separated from his lovee is the sentiment that Pakis have towards the US.

Prateek · Post by **Prateek** » 28 Jan 2004 07:26

Pakistan’s nuclear guru under suspicion
Father of program is investigated for technology transfer

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 28 Jan 2004 07:40

Chronology of GOTUS "shock" w.r.t. TSP

May 1998: shocked that TSP had nukes.

June 1999: shocked that TSP would invade a neighboring country.

Sep. 99: shocked that a sweet stable democracy like TSP would get a military dictator.

Sep. 2001: shocked that Pakis would knock down a few buildings in Manhattan and Tubelightabad.

Nov. 2001: shocked that Kabul residents would welcome Gen. Dostum &Co.

Dec. 2001: shocked to see that Pak nuke scientists own Kabul Ummah Tameer Nau bomb-design school.

May 2002: shocked at proof of TSP terrorist attacks inside India

Mid-2002: shocked that TSP would make nuke threats.

Mid-2003: shocked at revelations of Paki nukes-for-noDongs trade with NoKorea. Satisfied with 400% assurance by mush to stop these.

Late 2003: shocked at TSP nuke transfers to Iran.

Dec. 2003: shocked at TSP nuke collaboration with KSA. (but knew of Prince Bandar Al Terrorist visiting Kahuta Xerox Center)

Jan. 2004: shocked at TSP nuke collaboration with Libya.

Now believes it was all individuals, not the government.

Also probably believes in the Tooth Fairy.

.. just how much more comical is this going to get?

The Analysts at the Brookings Institution and the GOTUS agencies where they make predictions of foreign affairs, must be real duds.

Kumar · Post by **Kumar** » 28 Jan 2004 08:00

Originally posted by muddur:
Pakistan’s nuclear guru under suspicion
Father of program is investigated for technology transfer

From the above link there is available a pop up window titled "Nuclear Standoff Interactive", comparing India and Pakistan's nukes and missiles. It says "MSNBC research" but claims its sources are US intelligence.

Therein you will find the most outrageous lies. Worthy of a Paki.

We need a "Rangudu-Response" to such chicanery!

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 28 Jan 2004 08:07

Ashok Kumar>> I was also furious reading that box, till I saw the source and it clearly read as
"US intelligence Sources".

That says it all ( remember Iraq, Niger Uranium cake, Martha's baking recipe and US intelligence reports)

Alok Niranjan · Post by **Alok Niranjan** » 28 Jan 2004 08:40

Originally posted by narayanan:

The Analysts at the Brookings Institution and the GOTUS agencies where they make predictions of foreign affairs, must be real duds.

Come now, they are not duds. The real question is what is their brief -- why are they making the particular noises that they are making?

Alok Niranjan · Post by **Alok Niranjan** » 28 Jan 2004 08:44

Originally posted by Ashok Kumar:
From the above link there is available a pop up window titled "Nuclear Standoff Interactive", comparing India and Pakistan's nukes and missiles. It says "MSNBC research" but claims its sources are US intelligence.

You missed the MSNBC research part!

Look closely ... there is a Durga/Kali type of figure rising out of Burma/Thailand, and a Thai monkey figure rising out of Orissa/Andhra ...

On the Pakistani side is some tiled mozaic motif ...

Clearly, that is not "US intelligence" ... pure MSNBC research there

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Jan 2004 10:33

Tim's Post

In 1990, the United States canceled F-16 aircraft sales to Pakistan. Without these jets, Pakistan looked elsewhere for missiles that could carry nuclear weapons.

This is another lie. Pakistan and China agreed on transfer of M-11 missiles in 1988, much before Pakistan even placed orders for the F-16 in 1989.

arun · Post by **arun** » 28 Jan 2004 12:38

Originally posted by SSridhar:
Tim's Post
In 1990, the United States canceled F-16 aircraft sales to Pakistan. Without these jets, Pakistan looked elsewhere for missiles that could carry nuclear weapons.
This is another lie. Pakistan and China agreed on transfer of M-11 missiles in 1988, much before Pakistan even placed orders for the F-16 in 1989.

Perhaps more of an inaccuracy given this statement by Teresita Schaffer, then Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in testimony before House subcommittee, 2 August 1989 :

None of the F-16's Pakistan already owns or is about to purchase is configured for nuclear delivery

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 28 Jan 2004 12:42

Originally posted by SSridhar:
This is another lie. Pakistan and China agreed on transfer of M-11 missiles in 1988, much before Pakistan even placed orders for the F-16 in 1989.

Anything to substantiate this?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 28 Jan 2004 14:17

Look how things gradually fall into place. Lt. Gen. Asad Durrani is gradually being fingered for the Iran proliferation track. Some of you may recall that - a couple of years ago - his appointment as ambassador to Saudi was resisted by Riyadh. Now we know one of the possible reasons. Riyadh did not want Pakistan to send a sunni who sold nuke technology to its Shiite archrival as an ambassador...