Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Lilo
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Lilo »

Yagnasri wrote:The real picture of banking is yet to come out. The immediate requirement is replacing of MDs and Chairmans of most of the banks and retire top level people en mass. Otherwise clear break from the past will not be there.
Actually this a good chance to twist the testimonials of these MDs and Chairman's(including the retired ones ) and the bank higher officers in general to make them squeal the names of the UPA brokers who facilitated this mountain of congress mediated NPAs .
They squealed and bent over when congress goaded them in the past they will do the same if govt decides to go after them.

Use them to go after the congi mid level functionaries in big states like Karnataka,Maharashtra etc.

Actually this is a golden chance to target the whole congi ecosystem. And in the process give a warning against future instincts to tamper with the Banking institutions of the country.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vina »

Most of the NPAs are in power and steel sector. How can investment in power sector be NPAs in a power deficit country like India
That is because most people in India consume power without paying for it. So for every unit of power generated, the entire system makes a loss. So , the more power you produce, the higher the losses. The losses end up in the books of the banks and also the power finance companies.

The political economy of that is set up that way. Let us not blame the farmers in Tamil Nadu or Punjab for free power alone. The desire for below cost power extends universally everyone, including to the richest city in India, namely New Delhi , which not content with mooching off the rest of the country, also desires to pay less than it's true cost for power consumption and elects the AAP, whose main poll promise was to cut power bills by 50%.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

vina wrote:That is because most people in India consume power without paying for it.
Could you please post corresponding data ? Not more anecdotes, please.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

vina wrote:
Most of the NPAs are in power and steel sector. How can investment in power sector be NPAs in a power deficit country like India
That is because most people in India consume power without paying for it. So for every unit of power generated, the entire system makes a loss. So , the more power you produce, the higher the losses. The losses end up in the books of the banks and also the power finance companies.

The political economy of that is set up that way. Let us not blame the farmers in Tamil Nadu or Punjab for free power alone. The desire for below cost power extends universally everyone, including to the richest city in India, namely New Delhi , which not content with mooching off the rest of the country, also desires to pay less than it's true cost for power consumption and elects the AAP, whose main poll promise was to cut power bills by 50%.
Why will private power companies eat the losses for govt provided freebies? Its either the state governments or discoms which will have to bear the losses. The power generating companies will get paid or else they will stop supplying power. So as long as there is a power purchase agreement and the governments are buying power, the generating companies will see the money.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vina »

Could you please post corresponding data ? Not more anecdotes, please.
:lol: . Anectodes!! Something that is a universal truth in India is now an "anectode !" .

Well, for starters, chew on this. Roughly 40% of the power generated was Karanataka is NOT EVEN METERED. Most classes of customers (other than industrial, commercial and AEH homes which is something like > 300 KWH of power), dont pay the true cost of power and actually receive subsidy. The others (industrial, power and AEH homes) cross subsidise them. This is the truth and the business model of the power sector. Same is true with water, every govt utility and also the Indian Railways.

That is why I always maintained that of the two great Indian inventinons, (the first being zero which is immesuarably valuable) the second , the disastrous cross subsidy, Railway train model (a minuscule 1st , and A?C class subsidising everything else) is the most deleterious to mankind, or specifcally to Indian prosperity.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vina »

hanumadu wrote:
Why will private power companies eat the losses for govt provided freebies? Its either the state governments or discoms which will have to bear the losses. The power generating companies will get paid or else they will stop supplying power. So as long as there is a power purchase agreement and the governments are buying power, the generating companies will see the money.
Welcome to India. This is a land where contracts are largely unenforceable . If that is the case even between private parties, try enforcing a contract with the govt of India.. Good luck . The PPA is not even worth the paper it will be written on. You can sell all that you want, but simply forget collecting. Ask the windmill generator folks all over the country. Why, ask the Govt folks themselves, NTPC, NHPC, Neyveli Lignite and others, and also PFC and others, and ask how much outstandings they have on their books from the state electricity boards and how they manage to collect (if at all .. hint, answers will be restructurings, periodic bailouts of SEBs, asset take over).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

vina wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Why will private power companies eat the losses for govt provided freebies? Its either the state governments or discoms which will have to bear the losses. The power generating companies will get paid or else they will stop supplying power. So as long as there is a power purchase agreement and the governments are buying power, the generating companies will see the money.
Welcome to India. This is a land where contracts are largely unenforceable . If that is the case even between private parties, try enforcing a contract with the govt of India.. Good luck . The PPA is not even worth the paper it will be written on. You can sell all that you want, but simply forget collecting. Ask the windmill generator folks all over the country. Why, ask the Govt folks themselves, NTPC, NHPC, Neyveli Lignite and others, and also PFC and others, and ask how much outstandings they have on their books from the state electricity boards and how they manage to collect (if at all .. hint, answers will be restructurings, periodic bailouts of SEBs, asset take over).
References please. There might be delays in payment, but dues wont go unpaid which at most means restructurings but not NPAs.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Singha »

two more banks one being idbi have just released very dismal figures
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Singha »

all are lining up to reveal the truth together now, figuring collective dismay will be less than sum of parts
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by nandakumar »

The commerce ministry has put out detailed commodity wise data on imports and exports for April-November 2015-16. I was looking at the top commodities which account for significant chunk of India's total imports. One category caught my attention which accounts for a little over 8% of the total value (dollar terms) of imports- Nuclear reactors, boilers and accessories, parts thereof. I went into detailed break up such imports. I would have thought we wouldn't have the expertise to manufacture reactor vessels, fuelling machines and components of these machines etc. But some of the biggest value items are prima facie appear to be general engineering or electronic products. Examples:Spark ignition/compression ignition piston engines, spares parts thereof are worth $ 1 billion. Pumps for liquids/air and spare parts thereof was worth $1.5 billion. Data processing machines $3.5 billion.
See the link here
http://www.commerce.nic.in/eidb/Icom4.asp?hs=84
Is there something that I am missing? Can somebody clarify?
Thanks
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Cosmo_R »

vina wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Why will private power companies eat the losses for govt provided freebies? Its either the state governments or discoms which will have to bear the losses. The power generating companies will get paid or else they will stop supplying power. So as long as there is a power purchase agreement and the governments are buying power, the generating companies will see the money.
Welcome to India. This is a land where contracts are largely unenforceable . If that is the case even between private parties, try enforcing a contract with the govt of India.. Good luck . The PPA is not even worth the paper it will be written on. You can sell all that you want, but simply forget collecting. Ask the windmill generator folks all over the country. Why, ask the Govt folks themselves, NTPC, NHPC, Neyveli Lignite and others, and also PFC and others, and ask how much outstandings they have on their books from the state electricity boards and how they manage to collect (if at all .. hint, answers will be restructurings, periodic bailouts of SEBs, asset take over).
Yup. +1. No contract in India is worth the paper it's written on. Look at how Mallya has stymied the banks on foreclosing on his loans.

The only thing that works is cash on delivery.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Austin »

What is the M2 money supply in India as percentage of its GDP ? Reportedly the M2 for china is around twice that of its GDP
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

vina wrote:
Could you please post corresponding data ? Not more anecdotes, please.
:lol: . Anectodes!! Something that is a universal truth in India is now an "anectode !" ..
In other words, you don't have data. You have anecdotes and 'universal truths'. FYI, this is not the Economics Nukkad thread. Please don't post here if you can't substantiate your otherwise long arguments when requested.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by navneeet »

Why, ask the Govt folks themselves, NTPC, NHPC, Neyveli Lignite and others, and also PFC and others, and ask how much outstandings they have on their books from the state electricity boards and how they manage to collect (if at all .. hint, answers will be restructurings, periodic bailouts of SEBs, asset take over).
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2 ... 00311.html
Government and Reserve Bank of India today signed a Tripartite Agreement with States for a one time settlement of State Electricity Dues. So far, 24 states have signed the TPA.
full payment of current bills through Letters of Credit

One of the clauses of the TPA permit GoI to deduct the unpaid dues directly from the money that is transferred to the State as Devolution grants etc.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

A lot of banks have been making larger and larger contingencies over the last few years starting as far back as 2011 as seen in their income statements. I think most have their bad debt covered and that is probably the reason why Rajan confidently stated that by end of March 2017, banks will take all the NPAs off their books. I will even say that a major chunk of those bad loans will eventually give at least 50% back.

I think banks will pass on the lower interest rates and start lending more after March 2017.

More qualified financial gurus here can confirm or correct me.

Vina, you are an yumbeeyay. You should be able to read their balance sheets more correctly.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

GVK seems to be a classic case of how to divert money loaned from banks to other purposes. GVK Coal is a private company in which the publicly traded GVK Power and Infrastructure has only 10% stake. The rest seems to be held by the GVK family. GVK coal spent about 1 billion dollars buying coal mines in Australia. So where did the GVK family get 1 billion to invest? GVK Power loaned 7000 cr to GVK Coal. Where did GVK Power get that money? They took loans from the banks.

In a way, it serves them right. Now that commodity prices have plummeted and Modi making sure thermal coal need not be imported anymore, I doubt they will ever commercialize those mines. But its still GVK Coal's responsibility to pay back the 7000 cr to GVK Power. I don't know how its even legal what they did or why SEBI is not investigating them.

There must be plenty of such cases all around.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

banks not going bankrupt: Kotak's Prasad
Also, he feels the panic over the huge losses in public sector banks arising from higher provisions may be overdone.

Excerpts from Prasad’s note: “Our simplistic exercise shows that the capital requirement will not exceed Rs 1 trillion (Rs 1 lakh crore) for the Indian banking system even if (1) impaired assets go up to over 15 percent of total loans (11.3% as of September 30, 2015), (2) write-offs are made today and (3) there is no further contribution from pre-provisioning operating profits. We believe that loss given default is unlikely to exceed 30 percent in the case of most bad loans.”
Can somebody explain the above in english, please?

Expect to return to FY14 profit levels next year: Bank of Baroda
In his first-ever media interaction, the new MD of Bank of Baroda PS Jayakumar said he has flushed out all the NPAs pointed out by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and that he expects to return to FY14 profit levels next year. More importantly, he said he has informed the government that he won't be needing capital and also doesn't see any capital dilution for the next 18-24 months.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by alexis »

I see lot of rants against government, banks and RBI on the losses of banks. There is some merit to those arguements but the recent explosion in NPAs is due to:
A. Power Sector
1. Supreme Court cancellation of coal blocks - While this prevented concentration of public resources cheaply into private hands, it made a lot of investments into power worthless including loans made by banks. Banks cannot be faulted on this as they lend money to these projects assuming fuel supply was tied up.
2. Failure of FRP 2012 plan - The government's plan to improve utilities health had some impact initially but has fizzled out with SEBs going back to their profligate ways.
3. Massive reduction in KG basin natural gas production - Most of the gas based power plants set up during the natural gas boom have now been commissioned and their loan repayment (after moratorium of 1 yr usually) has commenced. So these are becoming NPAs.

B. Steel Sector
1. All Indian players invested in capacity expansion during 2011 boom period which has come online and demand has slumped in both domestic and international markets with China resorting to massive dumping of steel.Chinese slowdown is the biggest issue in this sector now. Now steel companies are not making enough EBITDA to service even interest.
2. Most Indian players have not been able to (bar some large players) diversify into value added products. So we are now importing certain types of steel while there is massive overcapacity overall.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by alexis »

hanumadu wrote:banks not going bankrupt: Kotak's Prasad
Also, he feels the panic over the huge losses in public sector banks arising from higher provisions may be overdone.

Excerpts from Prasad’s note: “Our simplistic exercise shows that the capital requirement will not exceed Rs 1 trillion (Rs 1 lakh crore) for the Indian banking system even if (1) impaired assets go up to over 15 percent of total loans (11.3% as of September 30, 2015), (2) write-offs are made today and (3) there is no further contribution from pre-provisioning operating profits. We believe that loss given default is unlikely to exceed 30 percent in the case of most bad loans.”
Can somebody explain the above in english, please?

Expect to return to FY14 profit levels next year: Bank of Baroda
In his first-ever media interaction, the new MD of Bank of Baroda PS Jayakumar said he has flushed out all the NPAs pointed out by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and that he expects to return to FY14 profit levels next year. More importantly, he said he has informed the government that he won't be needing capital and also doesn't see any capital dilution for the next 18-24 months.
What he means is only 1 lakh crore needs to be infused to ensure capital adequacy for banks even if:
1. NPAs increase to 15% of total loans (may happen but unlikely)
2. All write-offs (ie loss which results in reduction of net worth) happen today (not realistic; it should happen over a period of 5 years as per RBI norms)
3. Operating profits dont increase and remains at current level (depends on loan offtake)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

^^Even before the cancellation, none of the coal blocks alloted to private power companies have been developed. So I doubt the cancellation had any effect. So now that the coal supply has increased, there should not be any NPAs unless there are still power plants not getting coal. In any case, they should start functioning at some point of time in the near future.

Even gas has been allocated to most idle plants to at least recover fixed costs. With the signing of the Iran gas deal, probably a deal with Australia and new revenue share agreement with our own producers along with higher price for deep off shore wells, our gas based power plants should also be running at full capacity eventually.

From my above post,
We believe that loss given default is unlikely to exceed 30 percent in the case of most bad loans.
So 70% of bad loans will be recovered eventually.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by alexis »

^^

coal blocks were under development, but power plants were under construction which were supposed to use these blocks. So when de-allocation happened, all power plants are without fuel and these now need to pay interest and principal back. Coal supply is nowhere near adequate for all new projects.

Gas has been allocated at very low PLF. Gas plants can barely service 70-80% of interest with this allocation, let alone principal.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Austin »

India's January exports fall for 14th straight month

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by AbhiJ »

Yagnasri wrote:The real picture of banking is yet to come out. The immediate requirement is replacing of MDs and Chairmans of most of the banks and retire top level people en mass. Otherwise clear break from the past will not be there.
Arun Jaitley said today:
During the UPA Government, the public sector banks were hardly run by their own Boards or even by North Block. They were run from 24, Akbar Road.
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/arun- ... ATEST_NEWS
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by AbhiJ »

All I have been saying awhile, Ecommerce and Startup bumkim:

Start-ups burning more cash than net revenue, impeding disaster: Avnish Bajaj
n a Tweet Storm on Monday, Bajaj said that "burn rates are too high" in the start-ups space in India while at the same time entrepreneurs are not doing enough to curb spends despite knowing that the next round of funding might be far away.

"Companies raising 50, 100 million dollar rounds is not going to come back anytime soon; as poor capital intensity kills returns," said Bajaj in a tweet. "So, companies should focus on building businesses the right way and take an axe to burn rates."
Of late, venture funding in the start-up space is showing signs of drying up with companies, especially in the FoodTech space, bearing the maximum brunt. Finding it hard to raise their next round, several players such as Zomato, TinyOwl and Foodpanda have laid off staff and are scaling down operations in order to reduce cash burn.
"Anybody who spends big money on advertising will die. All of these guys (who are spending huge money in marketing and advertising) are in a death spiral," Mahesh Murthy, founder of digital marketing company Pinstorm, told Business Standard in an earlier interview
A study by brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Securities which looked at the financials of 22 top Indian e-commerce start-ups during the fiscal 2015, found that losses grew by 293 percent to Rs 7,884 crore on a combined revenue of Rs 16,199 crore.
Companies are built on Cash Flows from operational activities, not on Investors

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 938597.cms

Here's why Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is right about the e-commerce bubble

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 863_1.html
Last edited by AbhiJ on 15 Feb 2016 20:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

Re: Start-ups. This is the nature of the game. Two-thirds don't survive even in Silicon valley. It is upto the investors to make the correct judgment as to where their money are best invested. Not doing it due to scare mongering is counter productive. Even Tata and Birla were at some point start-ups. This is different from NPAs in the banking system which is due to a combination of bad business judgement, mismanagement of the economy, nepotism, political interference and corruption.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

AbhiJ wrote:All I have been saying awhile, Ecommerce and Startup bumkim:

Start-ups burning more cash than net revenue, impeding disaster: Avnish Bajaj
There's nothing bumkum about startups failing. That's the standard result as far as startups go: failure is the rule; success is the exception. Not the other way around. Startups make the big stage when they figure out how to monetize their idea and not burn through what money they have, before they're done monetizing and achieving sustainable growth.

Their risk appetite should be encouraged and not derided. The good ones will figure out what burn rate is too high, and fix it. They'll be the ones left standing and will be around long term. Correspondingly, VCs will also mature and figure out which startups are relatively better worth investing into, to maximize the potential for return on their risk capital.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Wholesale prices fall for 15th month
General wholesale prices fell for the 15th straight month in January this year. The rate of decline in the wholesale price index (WPI), called deflation in technical parlance, rose to 0.90 per cent in the month compared to 0.73 per cent in December 2015, official data showed on Monday. However, the deflation was lower than 0.95 per cent in January 2015.

The WPI deflation was in contrast with consumer price index-based inflation, which rose to a 17-month high of 5.69 per cent in January from 5.61 per cent in the previous month. It was way back in 1975-76 there was WPI-based deflation for a full year. The index had last showed inflation in October 2014, at 1.66 per cent. However, food articles remained in an inflationary zone, even as the rate of price increase declined. The inflation here decelerated at 6.02 per cent in January, compared to the 8.17 per cent rise seen in the previous month. Pulses, which have consistently provided the main inflationary push among food articles in FY16, continued to rise 44.91 per cent, although inflation mellowed from the 55 per cent rise witnessed in December. Inflation in vegetables declined to 12.52 per cent in January, compared to 20.56 per cent in the previous month.
Core inflation creeps up
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) slipped further into negative territory in January, to -0.9 per cent from -0.7 per cent in December, amid sharp decline in global crude oil and commodity prices. In January, crude oil prices for the Indian basket averaged a record low of $28.1 per barrel (down 39.7 per cent on-year), while the global metals and minerals index fell 23.3 per cent.

This, coupled with low capacity utilisation rates (due to weak domestic demand), caused fuel and manufactured products' inflation to fall faster than overall inflation. Core inflation, as measured by the CRISIL Core Inflation Indicator (CCII) crept up led by rising inflation in food products. Excluding food products, CCII inflation was negative.

In January, food inflation (primary plus manufactured food) declined to five per cent from 6.2 per cent in December, largely due to fall in primary food inflation (to 6 per cent from 8.2 per cent) led by lower inflation in foodgrains and fruits and vegetables.

Pulses inflation also fell, after reaching a peak of 58.1 per cent in November, but was still high at 44.9 per cent in January, with items such as tur (arhar), and urad reporting 70.5 per cent and 64.8 per cent inflation rates, respectively. Meanwhile, inflation in processed food (food products) jumped up 80 basis points, to 2.8 per cent, with the pass-through of rising inflation in milk and persistently high pulses inflation beginning to show up.
Four states set precedent for stringent targets under UDAY
As four major states sign up for Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY), around 34% of the total power distribution companies’ (discoms) debt is now under restructuring. A major portion of this debt is being taken over as grant, which is likely to impact the state’s finances.
However, for the four states namely Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, the stringent targets set a precedent for other states that will join. Punjab, Haryana and Bihar would sign MoU soon. So far, 16 states have given in-principle approval to join UDAY.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which runs into 90+ pages each, reviewed by Business Standard lists key parameters. The targets against each parameter are being decided by the state.

The UDAY MoU is a tri-partite agreement between union ministry of power, state government and their respective discom(s). As envisaged in the UDAY scheme, the state government would take over the debt of its discoms in a phased manner – 75% in first fiscal year and balance the next year.

State government will issue non-SLR bonds against same. The MoU also entails reduction in technical and commercial losses and improving operational efficiencies.
While trade is falling in value terms, in volume terms they are still rising:
Shipshape performance at India's 12 major ports
India's 12 major ports registered an overall improvement in the performance parameters during the April-December 2015 period compared to the first nine months of FY15.

These ports handled 447 million tonnes (mt) up to December 2015 against 433 mt in the year-ago period. While overall growth in traffic stood at 3.18 per cent during the period under review, nine ports witnessed positive growth and three registered negative growth.

The overall performance of the major ports is measured by three parameters - average turnaround time (ATT) of vessels on port (in days), average pre-berthing time on port (in hours), and average output per ship berth day (in tonnes).

Between April and December 2015, ATT reduced to 2.12 days from 2.30 days a year ago. Besides, average pre-berthing time fell to 3.97 hours from 5.55 hours. Also, the average output per ship berth day increased to 12,614 tonnes from 12,313 tonnes.
While merchandise exports have been in freefall, services exports are rising and are closing the gap with merchandise in terms of value of trade:
Services exports flat at $14 billion in December; imports at $7.2 billion: RBI
India's international trade in services remained almost flat from a year ago in December 2015 with exports of $14.04 billion and imports of $7.19 billion, says RBI data.

The services exports (or receipts) were at $14.30 billion in December 2014 and the services imports (or receipts) were at $7.24 billion during the month.

Despite the trade in services remaining flat in December 2015 from a year earlier, the exports and imports in terms of value were the highest from any other months of the current fiscal.

In cumulative terms, the services exports were at $117.34 billion during April-December period of 2015-16 so far.

The services imports were at $63.78 billion during the nine months ended December of this fiscal.

Services contribute about 55-60% to India's GDP and it receives high foreign inflows in this sector.
$117B in services exports in 9 months implies an annual services export figure of ~$160-165 billion assuming typical export behavior involving an effort to close deals at the end of financial year. Merchandise exports are barely $280-300 billion, which means services exports have already grown to a level where they generate upto 60% of the earnings that merchandise exports do.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Austin »

India takes China's crown as fastest growing economy

https://www.rt.com/business/332597-indi ... na-growth/
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

Banking sector is a worrying things because whatever is bad is not going to vanish soon. I am not talking about the NPAs. I am talking about the bad decision making. That has to go. But not possible unless there is a serious surgery and removal of top level people. Pity it is not going to happen.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

The PSU bank chief recruitment process was to be changed and new people brought in. At least that was the agenda a year or more back. Don't know if it has already been done. Power and infra (specially roads) logjam are being taken care of. The other major problem is steel sector which is due to global reasons and will take time to resolve. I expect power and infra/roads to be in the green in a couple of years.
Kakkaji
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Kakkaji »

Polavaram is reaping the Jan Dhan benefit
National impact
Not just Andhra Pradesh, but the PMJDY numbers are stunning nationally. About 20.20 crore people across the country have opened accounts under the scheme; with over a half of them operating the accounts through the RuPay cards, the Indian version of a Mastercard or Visa debit cards.

According to the AP Hota, Managing Director and CEO of National Payment Corporation of India, the new account holders generate 27 lakh transactions per day. This figure will touch 30 lakh per day very soon, says the Managing Director of NPCI, which is the umbrella organisation for retail payment systems in India.

The accounts together hold deposits of ₹32,000 crore, with an average transaction value of ₹2,000. An enquiry with the bankers show that the numbers continue to grow as people open accounts even after the banks have stopped campaigns for new enrolments.

The drivers
The trends lead to a simple, yet vital question: What is driving these numbers when the old financial inclusion plans thrust by the Reserve Bank of India on public sector banks, which failed to generate enthusiasm in people, as well as the bankers?

As has been the case of Ravamma, the increasing awareness about the social security being offered under the scheme has been an attraction, says Venkatappa Rao, the 24-year-old Manager of Andhra Bank’s Polavaram branch. A post-graduate in biotechnology, Rao wanted to be a scientist but now has found his calling in the banking sector. “Luckily, the claims in cases were settled very fast, spreading the message about the scheme’s inherent financial protection,” says Rao.

There is a huge gap in insurance for the underprivileged in the country. The insurance penetration, measured as a percentage of insurance premiums to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stands at 3.3 per cent in India last year, according to data of Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI). It is the lowest level of insurance penetration since 2005.

Under the Jan Dhan scheme, the RuPay card comes with an inbuilt accident insurance cover of ₹1 lakh for up to 90 days after the cardholder carries out a successful financial or non-financial transaction at a merchant establishment, an ATM or an e-commerce platform.

There are other drivers too. Prakash Goud, a vegetable seller in Kandi village in Sangareddy district of Telangana, is elated about the overdraft facility for ₹5,000 that comes with the PMJDY account. “This is quite a sum for me and helps in mobilising daily working capital for my business,” he says.

Till recently, Goud had to depend on the local money lenders who would provide call money, to buy vegetables. Call money is a form of private lending where a loan is available immediately, but comes with exorbitant rate of interest. He would walk back with little returns after paying back the borrowed money to the money lender, who would charge an average interest rate of 10 per cent. But now, thanks to the overdraft facility, the vegetable seller doesn’t need the call money anymore.

While in banking parlance, call money is short-term finance for periods ranging from one to fifteen days and mainly an inter-bank deal, the term is now in liberal use for the personal loans taken by individuals from money-lenders at 20-30 per cent per annum and often at even higher rates.

The overdraft facility has also come handy for other purposes such as paying school fee for kids and buying books, points out M Jyothi, a labour whose two children are in 10{+t}{+h} and 6{+t}{+h} standard.

As on Jan 15, 2016, ₹166 crore has been extended by banks to the Jan Dhan account holders in the form of overdraft, a first of its kind for any model of financial inclusion. The amount given to an account holder can be up to four times the average balance he has maintained in the last six month; the overdraft has an upper limit of ₹5,000. There are some other facilities as well.

A PMJDY account holder can withdraw up to ₹2,000 using debt cards and open system prepaid cards at PoS in Tier-III and Tier-VI centres. Till late last year, the limit was ₹1,000. Banks have also been asked not to levy any SMS/message charges on the PMJDY accounts and basic savings bank deposits accounts.

What has worked
Experts point out that the strength of the model is also another positive factor. Globally, models for financial inclusion are either driven by credit or savings. The PMJDY began as a savings-led model, even though some argue that it is actually a hybrid model in view of the overdraft service, which is a credit facility. However, the predominance of savings element qualifies the scheme to be labelled as a savings-driven.

In a recent speech, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan extended support to the scheme when he observed: “When credit leads the process of financial inclusion, we risk lending to people who have little ability to manage money and overburdening them.

By drawing them into the formal system through savings and payments first, then insurance, we get them accustomed to managing money before tempting them with credit.’’

PMJDY created accounts for much of the excluded population, and went a step ahead by attaching a variety of financial services such as accident and life insurance to these accounts, and sending direct benefits such as scholarships, pensions, and subsidies to these account holders.

The model is integrated through business correspondents, payment banks, and point-of-sales machines so that the services are used frequently.

Any expansion of the direct benefit transfer will be easier with beneficiaries having operative accounts. Governments of Puducherry and Chandigarh have already used the system to directly transfer money in lieu of food grains through the fair price shops. The money transfer saves the government money and brings in efficiencies in the system.

Disparities
Bankers are a bit troubled by zero-balance accounts, which make up for 29 per cent of the accounts under the Jan Dhan scheme. Though the proportion of these accounts have come down from a high of 75 per cent last year, the impact of the scheme will be higher once more of these accounts become operative. Maintaining these accounts adds to the costs of the banks, who are squeezed for margins.

Also, while places such as Delhi, with higher standard of living and more earning opportunities, will have a lower per cent of zero-balance accounts, the total deposit is low. Delhi, with 29 lakh accounts, has about ₹818 crore in deposits. States with highest deposits are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan with ₹4,069 crore, ₹3,269 crore and ₹2,209 crore respectively, in their Jan Dhan accounts.

It is also a challenge to ensure that the overdrafts extended to the account holders will be collected back without any trouble. It remains to be seen if a good credit culture accompanies the interest in opening accounts from a customer point of view.

A speedier transition to a wide range of direct benefit transfers like pensions and foods subsidies could make the scheme complete as the main objective is financial inclusion.
Dipanker
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Dipanker »

Gestation for coal mining from development to production varies from 3 to 7 years depending on the method of mining ( surface / underground ), so the coal blocks allocated in in 2014-15 period will start producing in the 2018 - 22 time frame, not sooner than that.
vina
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vina »

Dipanker wrote:Gestation for coal mining from development to production varies from 3 to 7 years depending on the method of mining ( surface / underground ), so the coal blocks allocated in in 2014-15 period will start producing in the 2018 - 22 time frame, not sooner than that.
As of now, there is no coal shortage, all the power plants have enough buffer (record stocks) after Piyush Goyal (a very competent minister) whipped Coal India into shape. The problem now is that most discoms are bankrupt and cant fully evacuate the power that can be produced by NTPC and others. I saw some numbers that Bihar totally has 300MW of power generation (think of the ridiculousness of it).

Coal based power while long run salvageable, I am not so sure with the economics of gas based power which came up on the back of Reliance's projections and the aggressive bidding on the controlled price of Reliance gas. Now it is clear that the Reliance gas is somehting that might never happen and that making them run on imported gas is unviable. Gas based power is too costly to be passed through, especially if gas is imported and gas is allocated on a priority bases to fertilizer plants.

Now what this gas pooling this govt has done is to allow generation at low plant load factors and cover some of the costs (probably some marginal /variable costs gets covered), but by no means enough to make the plants viable and there is really no solution to this ,except writing off those plants. Now if someone wants to enforce the gas supply contract based on which the plants were set up, well, like I said earlier , good luck.

GMRInfra (I think) had something like a Rs 1500 cr gas based unit lying idle for long time and started producing power recently after gas pooling.
saumitra_j
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Posts: 383
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by saumitra_j »

Sir, I am bolding some of the key parts and also cross posting it in achievements thread - this is HUGE!
Kakkaji wrote:Polavaram is reaping the Jan Dhan benefit
National impact
Not just Andhra Pradesh, but the PMJDY numbers are stunning nationally. About 20.20 crore people across the country have opened accounts under the scheme; with over a half of them operating the accounts through the RuPay cards, the Indian version of a Mastercard or Visa debit cards.

According to the AP Hota, Managing Director and CEO of National Payment Corporation of India, the new account holders generate 27 lakh transactions per day. This figure will touch 30 lakh per day very soon, says the Managing Director of NPCI, which is the umbrella organisation for retail payment systems in India.

The accounts together hold deposits of ₹32,000 crore, with an average transaction value of ₹2,000. An enquiry with the bankers show that the numbers continue to grow as people open accounts even after the banks have stopped campaigns for new enrolments.

The drivers
The trends lead to a simple, yet vital question: What is driving these numbers when the old financial inclusion plans thrust by the Reserve Bank of India on public sector banks, which failed to generate enthusiasm in people, as well as the bankers?

As has been the case of Ravamma, the increasing awareness about the social security being offered under the scheme has been an attraction, says Venkatappa Rao, the 24-year-old Manager of Andhra Bank’s Polavaram branch. A post-graduate in biotechnology, Rao wanted to be a scientist but now has found his calling in the banking sector. “Luckily, the claims in cases were settled very fast, spreading the message about the scheme’s inherent financial protection,” says Rao.

There is a huge gap in insurance for the underprivileged in the country. The insurance penetration, measured as a percentage of insurance premiums to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stands at 3.3 per cent in India last year, according to data of Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI). It is the lowest level of insurance penetration since 2005.

Under the Jan Dhan scheme, the RuPay card comes with an inbuilt accident insurance cover of ₹1 lakh for up to 90 days after the cardholder carries out a successful financial or non-financial transaction at a merchant establishment, an ATM or an e-commerce platform.

There are other drivers too. Prakash Goud, a vegetable seller in Kandi village in Sangareddy district of Telangana, is elated about the overdraft facility for ₹5,000 that comes with the PMJDY account. “This is quite a sum for me and helps in mobilising daily working capital for my business,” he says.

Till recently, Goud had to depend on the local money lenders who would provide call money, to buy vegetables. Call money is a form of private lending where a loan is available immediately, but comes with exorbitant rate of interest. He would walk back with little returns after paying back the borrowed money to the money lender, who would charge an average interest rate of 10 per cent. But now, thanks to the overdraft facility, the vegetable seller doesn’t need the call money anymore.

While in banking parlance, call money is short-term finance for periods ranging from one to fifteen days and mainly an inter-bank deal, the term is now in liberal use for the personal loans taken by individuals from money-lenders at 20-30 per cent per annum and often at even higher rates.

The overdraft facility has also come handy for other purposes such as paying school fee for kids and buying books, points out M Jyothi, a labour whose two children are in 10{+t}{+h} and 6{+t}{+h} standard.

As on Jan 15, 2016, ₹166 crore has been extended by banks to the Jan Dhan account holders in the form of overdraft, a first of its kind for any model of financial inclusion. The amount given to an account holder can be up to four times the average balance he has maintained in the last six month; the overdraft has an upper limit of ₹5,000. There are some other facilities as well.

A PMJDY account holder can withdraw up to ₹2,000 using debt cards and open system prepaid cards at PoS in Tier-III and Tier-VI centres. Till late last year, the limit was ₹1,000. Banks have also been asked not to levy any SMS/message charges on the PMJDY accounts and basic savings bank deposits accounts.

What has worked
Experts point out that the strength of the model is also another positive factor. Globally, models for financial inclusion are either driven by credit or savings. The PMJDY began as a savings-led model, even though some argue that it is actually a hybrid model in view of the overdraft service, which is a credit facility. However, the predominance of savings element qualifies the scheme to be labelled as a savings-driven.

In a recent speech, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan extended support to the scheme when he observed: “When credit leads the process of financial inclusion, we risk lending to people who have little ability to manage money and overburdening them.

By drawing them into the formal system through savings and payments first, then insurance, we get them accustomed to managing money before tempting them with credit.’’

PMJDY created accounts for much of the excluded population, and went a step ahead by attaching a variety of financial services such as accident and life insurance to these accounts, and sending direct benefits such as scholarships, pensions, and subsidies to these account holders.

The model is integrated through business correspondents, payment banks, and point-of-sales machines so that the services are used frequently.

Any expansion of the direct benefit transfer will be easier with beneficiaries having operative accounts. Governments of Puducherry and Chandigarh have already used the system to directly transfer money in lieu of food grains through the fair price shops. The money transfer saves the government money and brings in efficiencies in the system.

Disparities
Bankers are a bit troubled by zero-balance accounts, which make up for 29 per cent of the accounts under the Jan Dhan scheme. Though the proportion of these accounts have come down from a high of 75 per cent last year, the impact of the scheme will be higher once more of these accounts become operative. Maintaining these accounts adds to the costs of the banks, who are squeezed for margins.

Also, while places such as Delhi, with higher standard of living and more earning opportunities, will have a lower per cent of zero-balance accounts, the total deposit is low. Delhi, with 29 lakh accounts, has about ₹818 crore in deposits. States with highest deposits are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan with ₹4,069 crore, ₹3,269 crore and ₹2,209 crore respectively, in their Jan Dhan accounts.

It is also a challenge to ensure that the overdrafts extended to the account holders will be collected back without any trouble. It remains to be seen if a good credit culture accompanies the interest in opening accounts from a customer point of view.

A speedier transition to a wide range of direct benefit transfers like pensions and foods subsidies could make the scheme complete as the main objective is financial inclusion.
Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10540
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

Partly cross posted from other thread.

If PSU banks fail then GOI will be held responsible. In fact Finance Ministry and RBI should have asked for these details and made and made them public long back. It is the failure of FM and RBI is resulted in this situation. RBI conducts AFI ( Annual Financial Inspection) of the banks. I am personally aware how intensive these inspections are. I am not sure if they are done properly now. There is no way all this NPAs escape their inspection if the same is done properly.

Each branch is getting audited and outside Auditors are nominated by RBI and not by banks. How come they also missed the NPAs? Failure of RBI here is huge.
Supratik
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

Don't worry. Bank PSUs like AI will not fail. The govt is just going to clean the books and use taxpayer money to recapitalize them. More professional management is required in PSU banks and I hope the banking reforms look into it. The banks are not entirely to be blamed in this case as pointed out in my earlier post.
Kakkaji
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Kakkaji »

vina wrote:Coal based power while long run salvageable, I am not so sure with the economics of gas based power which came up on the back of Reliance's projections and the aggressive bidding on the controlled price of Reliance gas. Now it is clear that the Reliance gas is somehting that might never happen and that making them run on imported gas is unviable. Gas based power is too costly to be passed through, especially if gas is imported and gas is allocated on a priority bases to fertilizer plants.
Patting myself on the back

Years ago, when these Reliance Gas projections were made, I had posted on BRF that gas-based power is a luxury for a poor, hydrocarbon-deficit country like India. Even if Reliance projections had come true on their domestic gas production, that gas should have been utilized for fertilizer production, and as directly-piped industrial and domestic fuel.

India just cannot afford to burn oil or gas to generate power.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

This Bloomberg article is rather bizarre. It starts off by mentioning the total investment commitments from the Make In India summit ($89 billion) and then seques into a bizarre extrapolation of workforce training rates and argues that India will take 200 years to train everyone, as if the rate never changes. Useful for the investment commitment data and not much more:
Modi's $89 Billion Make-in-India Haul Masks Challenges to Come
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Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Govt considers 'bad bank' proposal; budget announcement possible
The Centre is likely to set up a “bad bank” to take over the non-performing assets (NPAs) of the country’s financial institutions, and is examining a policy proposal paper on the matter.


As such, the setting up of an asset reconstruction company backed by the sovereign is a long-drawn process and these are still early days. Even then, senior government sources say Finance Minister Arun Jaitley might make an announcement in the upcoming Union Budget as part of his medium-term plans for the financial sector. There have been inter-ministerial discussions on the matter.

Earlier in February, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Rajan had said there was “no need” to set up a separate “bad bank” to deal with stressed assets of public sector (PSU) banks. “PSU banks themselves have the backing of the government, so there is no need to create a new entity that has the backing of the government. The issue is now to clean it up,” he had said at an event in New Delhi.

Rajan had also said the pricing of assets of a government-owned bad bank could get entangled with the Comptroller and Auditor General or the Central Vigilance Commissioner.

“The government is examining the proposal of setting up a ‘bad bank’, which will take over NPAs of public sector lenders and help them clean up their books. Deliberations with stakeholders are in the initial stages,” said an official.

The third quarter of financial year 2016 saw a sharp rise in banks’ NPAs because of stress in sectors like steel, power and infrastructure.

“The (RBI) governor has made valid points, which will be taken on board. However, there is no rule that says if the regulator is opposed to something it should not or cannot be done. A decision will be taken considering all views,” the official added.

The asset reconstruction company would not be RBI's problem as it would just take over toxic assets of banks, said another official. However, experts say a bad bank alone will not be a solution, it will have to be ensured that banks do not fall back and come up with more toxic assets.

Sources said the idea was being drawn from various countries that had set up such banks, the latest being the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) by the US Treasury after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Moody's estimate for this year comes in a shade under GoI's 7.6%:
Moody's estimates 2016-17 GDP growth at 7.5%
Global ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service estimates India’s economic growth at 7.5 per cent in both 2016 and 2017. Unlike China, it says, this country is less exposed to external headwinds and would benefit from lower commodity prices.


The economy grew 7.5 per cent in the first nine months of FY16. So, Moody’s does not expect higher expansion. It also said an otherwise robust economic environment faces hurdles in the form of banks’ balance sheet repair and high corporate debt.

“India is relatively less exposed to external factors. Instead, the economic outlook will be primarily determined by domestic factors,” it said in a report issued on Thursday.

“The 23.55 per cent increase in public sector salaries proposed by the 7th Pay Commission is worth 0.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). It is not yet known how this proposal will be implemented but higher public sector wages will most likely contribute to strong consumption growth,” it said. Moody’s rating for India sovereign debt is Baa3, the lowest investment grade.

The ratings agency added the pay increase will also probably raise inflationary pressure. “However, we assume the government will cut spending to maintain the deficit in line with the 3.5 per cent of GDP objective, thereby mitigating some of the inflationary effects.”
Farmers to have pan-India access to mandis: Modi
Come April and Indian farmers will have pan-India access to all agriculture mandis for selling their farm yield. The platform, to be known as National Agricultural Market, will allow farmers to know best rates for their yield through the internet. He also asked governments and farmers to join hands to take a pledge to double income for farmers by 2022, when India will mark 75th anniversary of its Independence.


“The platform will be launched from April 14, to mark the birth anniversary of B R Ambedkar this year. The e-platform will provide Indian farmers access to minimum five hundred mandis of the country,” Prime minister Narendra Modi said in Sherpur village, Sehore district, Madhya Pradesh. He was in the village to launch guidelines of a newly launched crop insurance scheme at a rally called Kisan Mahasammelan.

“A famer can have access to all mandis through his mobile phone, so he can know where he can fetch best rates for his commodity. He can trade the commodity anywhere in India through this facility. This way, he need not go to a nearby mandi or do distress-selling. This is what the real meaning of Digital India is, which we want to implement for our farm community,” Modi said.
Mechanisation perks up non-major ports
With increased focus on mechanisation and efficiency, private-owned non-major ports in the country are eating into the market share of government-owned major ports. In the last three years, the share of major ports in total cargo has declined continuously, while that of non-major ports has been increasing. As a result, capacity utilisation of non-major ports was better than their counterparts.


Experts said frustrated with growing delays at some of the major ports, shippers and ocean carriers were looking for alternative port options. Data show non-major ports increased their share in country’s total seaborne trade to 44.75 per cent in 2014-15, from 42.90 per cent in the previous year. Also, cargo volumes reached 470.87 million tonne (mt), up from 417.22 mt in 2013-14. That translates into a 12.85 per cent growth in 2014-15 over the previous financial year.

On the other hand, the overall market share of major public ports declined from 57.10 per cent in 2013-14 to 55.25 per cent in 2014-15. Cargo volumes stood at 581.34 mt in 2014-15 compared with 555.49 mt in the previous year, a growth of 4.7 per cent. India has 12 publicly-owned major ports.
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hanumadu
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

Why couldn't the bad bank be created earlier? My guess is they didn't want to create a panic and show the banks in huge red. Instead, they made provisions for the bad loans over the past 5 years and from the statements of Rajan, it will need one more year to make good on the losses.
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