The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2016 01:25

Also TSJi: the nyookular calculation today is a bit different from 1982, hain? Even then, no one **REALLY** believed that the POTUS would press the Big Red Button, which is why there was all the rush to build Attack Helicopters to counter the (hoped-for?) 10,000-tank invasion through the Fulda Gap and the 1-week Sweep To The English Channel. I somehow doubt that the resolve is any greater in the WHOTUS today than it was in 1962 or 1982. I mean, we DO have Rambo Jr in the WHOTUS, right?

I am waiting to hear that Germany and France demand expulsion of Turkey from NATO in order to save their own hides. Greece will rejoice. US will vote with them too, and Poodlestan will vote with US. Holland will vote against, but Belgium will vote against Holland on principle, and that is that.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Feb 2016 02:38

Food for some CT: (88-story Abu Dhabi Plaza in Astana, Kazakhstan has gone kaput) - Feb 12, 2016

This follows the oil platform fire in Azerbaijan in which some 30 people got killed just a month or so back.

An 88-story tower still under construction in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, was engulfed in a massive blaze early on Saturday. Amateur footage showed the high-rise, dubbed Abu Dhabi Plaza, lit up like an enormous torch.
The fire started on the 25th floor early on Saturday morning. According to preliminary reports, it was caused by a gas cylinder explosion.

Dozens of firefighters in nearly 20 vehicles have rushed to the scene. Several firefighting units are battling the blaze, struggling to get the fire under control, and at least 60 first responders have been deployed, RIA Novosti reported.Witnesses have started posting footage of the blaze online. Periscope user Erzhan Bazarov has been streaming a video from the scene, passing his device from hand to hand and even driving around the scene to get a better view – and avoid being hit by falling debris.

Bazarov and others can be heard saying in Russian that the building is about to “fall apart.”There has been no information on killed or injured victims from the blaze as of yet.Abu Dhabi Plaza has been under construction since 2010 and was planned to be completed in 2016. With its tower of over 380 meters, Abu Dhabi Plaza was supposed to become the highest building in Kazakhstan and Central Asia.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 15 Feb 2016 03:41

The effect may be like what someone shouting the word "HOUTHIS!!" would have in a Riyadh War Council Meeting. Sharp rise in Pakistan tourism.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 Feb 2016 03:59

TSJones wrote:
The effect may be like what someone shouting the word "HOUTHIS!!" would have in a Riyadh War Council Meeting. Sharp rise in Pakistan tourism.

Hope the word Pakistan is used in its true spirit, meaning and the place.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 Feb 2016 05:57

Pakistan joins major military manoeuvre in Saudi Arabia
Organic Manure"s Manoeuvre

RIYADH: Armed forces from around 20 countries including Pakistan and Malaysia were gathering in northern Saudi Arabia Sunday for “the most important “military manoeuvre ever staged in the region, the official news agency SPA reported.Last December, it also formed a new 35-member coalition to fight “terrorism” in Islamic countries. Sunday's announcement also comes as the kingdom, a member of the US-led coalition targeting the Islamic State group, said it has deployed war planes to a Turkish air base in order to “intensify” its operations against IS in Syria.SPA did not specify when the military exercise will begin or how long it will last.However, the agency called it the “most important and largest in the region's history” in terms of the number of nations taking part and the weaponry being used.Among them are Saudi Arabia's five partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Chad, Egypt, Jordan, Malaysia, Morocco, Pakistan, Senegal and Tunisia, it added.A Saudi source said on Thursday that members of the new “anti-terrorism “coalition will gather in Saudi Arabia next month for its first publicly announced meeting.Riyadh has said the alliance would share intelligence, combat violent ideology and deploy troops if necessary.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2016 06:01

Dang! I didn't know things were this desperate: ISIS occupies the whole town of Deir ez Zor Despite all the RUAF attentions?

ARA News
DEIR EZZOR – A group of gunmen attacked on Saturday a convoy for militants of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria’s eastern Deir ez-Zor province.
“An ISIS convoy, consisting of two cars and seven militants, was carrying an ISIS Emir (prince) in Deir ez-Zor, before being attacked by an anonymous group of gunmen,” a member of the “Deir ez-Zor Is Being Slaughtered Silently” campaign told ARA News, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Five ISIS militants were killed in the attack, including the jihadi Emir, while two others were injured before the gunmen escaped the Ghassan Aboud square, where the incident took place on Saturday evening.
“The gunmen, who have crossed the ISIS security checkpoints and infiltrated into the city of Deir ez-Zor, are most likely members of the local Arab al-Sheitaat tribe,” the source reported.
Al-Sheitaat tribe has been exposed to mass executions at the hands of ISIS militants since the radical group took over large areas in Deir ez-Zor nearly one year and a half ago. More than 700 members of the tribe were killed for refusing the ISIS’s alleged Caliphate and they were buried in mass graves.
Reporting by: Mir Yaqoub
Source: ARA News

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2016 06:05

http://aranews.net/2016/02/islamic-stat ... n-palmyra/

ARA News
HOMS – Radical group of the Islamic State (ISIS) on Saturday claimed its fighters have shot down two Russian drones over the ancient city of Palmyra in Syria’s central province of Homs.
The Russian drones were reportedly downed near the Duwwah district in western Palmyra on Saturday.
ISIS claimed responsibility for shooting down the drones in a statement published by the Islamist Amaq media center.
ARA News could not verify the report from independent sources in Homs.
This is not the first time that ISIS militants claim responsibility for shooting down drones for forces attacking its positions in Syria.
On February 1, the group said its fighters shot down a French drone over Manbij city in northern Syria. The ISIS-linked Amaq media center released images for remnants of a French drone, saying it was downed by the jihadis.
ISIS threatened to target more aircrafts for the international powers in case their airstrikes on its headquarters continued in Syria and Iraq.
Reporting by: Sarbas Yunis
Source: ARA News

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 06:41

fierce fighting on inside Tel Rifaat south of Azaz while the road to azaz has been cut to deny easy reinforcement

Joene
‏@Gjoene
Reports that #SDF/#YPG forces captured Ayn Daqnah #Aleppo, cutting the #TellRifaat - #Azaz road

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 06:50

I have seen cnn gives a lot of play to mccains insane ramblings and not nyt. I wonder how they are linked.

btw Iraq has dispatched forces to the deserted iraq-saudi border to monitor the so called exercises that will be/are being held in that region....there is a sort of junction with jordan and syria also in that region. resupplying a serious military adventure up that channel will be hard though as everything will have to be trucked up through the desert....impossible to hide

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 06:59

if you look at map here https://www.google.co.in/maps/@33.34685 ... 6,7z?hl=en

- if saudis enter via jordan they could make north to palmyra across the desert or swing west to support the jihadis in daraa - this has no strategic impact and those wadis and dunes are totally unhelpful to mass movement.
- saudis cannot make for deir azzor without passing 200km across the desert to Qaim on iraq-syria border and then on to deir azzor. deir is 400km north of saudi border. sustaining such a movement with even a brigade size force needs a massive logistics. baghdad has already sent forces to monitor and block such attempt. if saudis want a war with iraq I dont think so.

so I would discount any shadow boxing in the south as mere feints and maskirovka while the real deal is the north
- from border to deir hafr is some 80km of ISIS swamp where any new "liberators" will be most welcome. IS could don KSA army uniforms to blend right in

- from there to raqqa is 100km with only Al tabqah in the middle

this might explain why SAA is now in a hurry to make to Al tabqah and establish a strong position there.

however that is not enough and regime needs to organize
- take over or cut off Al bab and dayr hafr and establish blocking position on that route
- surround Azaz with YPG and render it ineffective as a staging post
- help the SDF and YPG to surround or take Manbij
- since time is short they could cut off the roads and establish numerous blocking positions than get into costly urban battle.
- gather video evidence of the Turkish firtina 155/52 guns behind earth berms openly firing into Syria and use the SAA BM27 uragan units in shoot and scoot mode to eliminate a bunch of them after giving due warning via the UN to stop x-border shelling
- turkey could still invade and take over say a 20km strip of territory and nothing SAA/YPG could do about it , but strategically turkey would gain nothing without the major cities in the north. most of their munnas are already in control of Idlib province though being JN they will be officially bombed daily . they could declare victory saying they have blocked the kurdish threats and sit there, but Rus and Iran could make life hell for a occupation by sending in high quality weapons to the resistance and good intel.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 07:08

be most interesting to see if AN124 are really in 24x7 mode and what they are shipping in. MR-SAMs, WLR , uragan/smerch, MSTA maybe if they want to upgrade the SAA .

there was a surprise mil drill in crimea/east ukraine around Feb9 which might explain the huge convoys there, though could be cover for stockpiling more stuff to be shipped via the bosporus south. Rus surely has assets in the kurdish regions of turkey and moles in ankara to keep tabs on plans.

lesson for india - unless you have mountains of ready-use stockpile and the back end to replenish in short quarter locally (rus, cheen, khan) all you can do is whine and initiate another tender for emergency buys @ 300% markups.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 07:16

http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-shows ... 89826.html

Feb 12

Russia's Defence Ministry is holding large-scale military drills on the annexed Crimean peninsula and in Russia's southern Krasnodar region.

According to the ministry's website, 8,500 troops, about 900 military vehicles, 50 warships and up to 200 war planes are involved in the drill.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2016 07:38

These are all miniscule by Russia's WW2 numbers, hain? See Battle of Kharkov:
Second Battle of Kharkov:

On 12 May 1942, Soviet forces under the command of Marshal Semyon Timoshenko launched an offensive against the German 6th Army from a salient established during the winter counter-offensive. After initial promising signs, the offensive was stopped by German counterattacks. Critical errors by several staff officers and by Joseph Stalin, who failed to accurately estimate the 6th Army's potential and overestimated their own newly trained forces, led to a German pincer attack which cut off advancing Soviet troops from the rest of the front. The operation caused almost 300,000 Soviet casualties compared to just 20,000 for the Germans and their allies.

The Third Battle of Kharkov was fought February 19 to March 15, 1943 during World War II (1939-1945).

While the grinding fighting was taking place in Stalingrad, Stalin dispatched General Georgy Zhukov south to begin building up forces for a counterattack. Working with General Aleksandr Vasilevsky, he massed troops to the on steppes to the north and south of Stalingrad. On November 19, the Soviets launched Operation Uranus which saw three armies cross the Don River and crash through the Romanian Third Army. South of Stalingrad, two Soviet armies attacked on November 20, shattering the Romanian Fourth Army. With Axis forces collapsing, Soviet troops raced around Stalingrad in a massive double evelopment (Map).

Uniting at Kalach on November 23, the Soviet forces successfully encircled 6th Army trapping around 250,000 Axis troops.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2016 07:41

Also, based on what I read of Mariupol, each of those Turkish 155mm guns will have one missile with their name written on it, visiting with absolute accuracy whenever Gen. Vodkovich gives the order. Those Turkeys are living on borrowed time.

This is the other feature of modern warfare that India needs to collect in good numbers.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 07:51

talking of mobilization: Turkey has some 18,000 troops at the border with Syria. But on Syrian side there are totalling SAA in Latakia, Aleppo some 50,000 and then Iranian Special Forces, hezb, Iraqi militia, Kurds somewhere around 100,000. Then there is NDF, people's militia which is the weakest force so not adding them but still they are also armed.

then if you attack from south or east, it takes around 3-4 months to form the spearhead out of Saudi via the hashemite western colony. By that time the Syrian forces will be entrenched in Raqqa.
http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/index. ... #msg354209

then again there is the genius of 'Saudi Intelligence' (oxymoron?)
The Saudi cretin Al Jubier said he is awaiting a battle plan from the US, that means the Sauds do not have a battle plan in place , yet they moved troops and air force to Syria.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 08:04

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1788574

abu omar al shishani the chechen jihadi leader has relocated to sirte in libya per this report. he started his new reign by having two lists of people read out - one for execution, one for amputation for "crimes"

^^ so high value branded assets are being parked out of harms way on the bench in libya to prepare the next breeding ground and quila-e-jihad . the unbranded grey market but dedicated ones shall remain to defend in syria.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 08:16

Kinsibba is now finally surrounded after the SAA troops have taken over Jabal-al-rus day before yesterday. Kinsibba is only 3 kms away and is now surrounded on 3 sides. Only a narrow corridor to Turkey has been left open and SAA spotters have observed rats scurrying to escape to Turkey.

From Superstation95, a US site, who publish bulletins frequently)
* * * * * * *
UPDATE 9:19 AM Eastern US Time [Feb 14 2016] -- After having been relentlessly shelled by artillery inside Turkey, the Syrian Arab Army is now RETURNING FIRE; it is shelling into Turkey!
* * * * *
UPDATE 9:57 AM Eastern US Time -- Reports of "unknown aircraft" bombing SAA positions in Latakia, Syria
* * * * * * *
UPDATE 11:33 AM Eastern US Time -- Reports that YPG/SDF forces have now taken Ayn Daqnah, despite Turkey’s shelling Syria . . . the rebels and the terrorists are LOSING!
* * * * * * *
UPDATE 11:35 AM Eastern US Time -- Reports of downed jet near Turkish-Syria border!
* * * * * * *
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/890

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 15 Feb 2016 08:25

SAA was closing in on the Daraa border towards South; Palmyra, AL Quraytayn, Al Tabaqah in East; in Aleppo they were ready to box in some ISIS Jihadis west of Kuweiris, attack Al Bab and Dier Haffer, against the rebels they had made the connection with Nubl & Zahraa pockets; in Latakkia they were close to taking the whole of province; in Damascus and other western rebel pockets more and more the rebels are fighting a lost cause with territory progressively lost.

YPG was close to Manbij, Azaz and they took Dier Jamal with almost a walk over.

For 05 years Turkey and Saudi Arabia have supported, funded, armed and even manned this disaster and carnage in Syria with a lot of backing from US. Sen McCaine and his clan saw in Sep '15 Russians arrive in Syria. 03rd quarter of '15 and 1 month in '16, the opposition, while still holding a lot of territory has effectively lost. SAA+ were merely completing militarily what mentally even the rebels had accepted.

Too much for Saudis and Turks to take? Why, else would they deploy without battle plans at the ready? All they want is for SAA and YPG to get entangled at other fronts without any actual invasion as of now. They hope in their desperation that this will halt the relentless march of SAA+ against the rebel terror gangs.

Misphortunately, bad planning as always leads to utter chaos. Iran has just got another excuse to put more boots on ground in Syria. Iraqi Hashd are now manning Iraq-Jordan-Syrian border. I expect, RuAF to expand air assets too, along with more ships and An 124s moving into Syria. All this while, the EU and NATO is left searching for reasons to get away from this mess and disown the treaties that they signed with the Turks.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 08:25

lol @ US mis-led coalition.

US-misled coalition is using all methods available to provoke Syria and Russia in order to have an excuse to send troops into Syria.

Russians have balls of steel. The Soviets would have already been stomping their fists at the UN by now (Krushchev - we will bury you!).

No reason for Syria and Russia to take the bait. Just keep on taking care of business on the ground.

The empire is squirming in rage.... they are the most dangerous right now as no logic can be used to predict their next insane move.

Respect to Hezbollah and their Iraqi counterparts. They have made great sacrifices!

the empire will attack syria when their proxy forces are on the verge of defeat, using their vassal armies of turkey and the wahabbi swine along with all whom the oily dollars of the wahabbis have bought like cheap whores.

the "arab"/ turkish coalition will enter syria. they will be backed by the trinity of "western power" ( america, england, france), NATO will be forced in under the combined influence of this trinity.

russia, iran, iraq, syria, hezballah, houthis in yemen will face off with the the full force of the world empire who have rallied all their vassals, all their serfs, all their slaves for the coming fight. a la Minas tirith.

this is a no holds barred war, no one will accept defeat.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 08:27

agility - while our dispatch riders continue to persist with the outdated heavy bullet bike and doing tricks like 35 people riding a single bike the world has moved on to using these speedy x-country bikes
such bikes can climb terrain and go through mud no bullet can and be far more useful as a field asset. there is no use case for the dispatch rider tricks and they should move to more realistic stuff.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 08:33

they have not changed strategies because they have not been challenged by a superior force.

the Iranian regularly fight with the americans and their proxies, so they and allies keep innovating to make themselves up-to-date. It's time for Modiji to ramp up our game and put our military in overall charge of some CDS or civilian authority who can overrule all and make game-changing moves.

we have to be ahead of the game, being behind the game results in strategic irrelevance at best or at worst a lot of lives lost.

the more one sees it, the war on Syria is the inflection point between the East and the West. The East is telling the West 'No More' of its deceit and plunder.

The war is now at its point of grestest danger. The western proxies may enter directly or it could be a bluff. Either way the Russians 'should' have certainly planned for all scenarios and are ready.

For Syria and its allies there is no backing off. Its up to the lunatics in the West to get the message.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 08:42

shreeman has a interesting two posts in tsp arms sales thread of mil forum about the sense of complacency and status quoism in army force structure planning. please read it there

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Feb 2016 08:57

These peaceful protesters in Istanbul seem to be in need of some US NGO type 'aid'

Feb 15, 2016

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 09:03

Turkish society is deeply divided, it has 15 million Kurds, 15 million Alevi, (or alawis as in Syria)
and 10-20 million disenfranchised secular and other hillbillies hostile towards AKP.
Recipes for disaster and civil war.

The situation is becoming desperate for ISIS in Aleppo, Tiger Forces about to liberate village of Teibah, fight still in part of the village but mostly liberated already. This is the village just above the strategic Thermal Power plant.

restoration of power supply from this thermal power plant will bring life back into Aleppo city. It has been cut off since last 1 year.

https://twitter.com/StormBringer15/stat ... 3842150400

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Feb 2016 09:31

Pl ignore if already posted.

Here is one of the video of intense battle in northern and eastern Aleppo and SAA capture of Tannurah and Uraymah hills - Feb 13, 2016

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 09:46

-France calls for a halt to Turkish bombing on Syria (Kurds). In other words if Turkey goes ahead with a major operation in Syria then Turkey is on its own, NATO won't be helping Turkey (e.g both the US and France have called for a halt to Turkish bombing).

-Respected Turkish analyst Soli Ozel says that Turkey is walking in to a Russian trap, that the Russian bear wants Turkey to come in to Syria.

Syria has BM-21 & Grad, there is no reason why they shouldn't retaliate to Turkey artillery strikes. Maybe Russia has restrained Syria, so that Turkey gets too confident and crosses the border. It would be a trap.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 09:55

BM21==grad. the syrians have BM27 uragan also and have used it including latakia. it is 1 level up from grad and 1 level below smerch. they would have about the same range as the 155/52 SP guns the turks are using. onlee thing being the syrians are in the moutains and can fire and hide on reverse slopes and forests while turks have parked themselves in the open right across the border.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 09:59

despite the Turkey artillery bombing, YPG continue to advance

Nathan Ruser ‏@Nrg8000 27m27 minutes ago
#Map
#YPG/#SDF forces enter the NW of Tal Rifaat and control some areas in the town.

Julian Röpcke ‏@JulianRoepcke 42m42 minutes ago
#BreakingNews
It happens.
#YPG forces entered #TallRifat.
First streets under their control.
#Aleppo #Syria

CNN Kurdistan (Eng) ‏@CNNEnglishKurd 1h1 hour ago
#Breaking A member of the Turkish Special Forces embedded with Al Nusra "Al Queda" has been captured by #YPG/SDF. Azaz,Rifaat #twitterkurds

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 15 Feb 2016 10:00

Singha wrote:lesson for india - unless you have mountains of ready-use stockpile and the back end to replenish in short quarter locally (rus, cheen, khan) all you can do is whine and initiate another tender for emergency buys @ 300% markups.

Logistically, technologically and financially there is no reason India could not replicate the entire Russian effort in Syria, especially in our near abroad.

Clearly our problem isn't lack of money or fancy toys. It's a much deeper issue.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 10:01

you are right, they are firing from positions in the mountains.

http://lifenews.ru/news/185132

Translation: "Syrian army opened artillery fire on points in Turkey, which is conducted with the firing positions of the military in the north of the province of Latakia. It is reported by a correspondent LifeNews Arthur Kebekov."

http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/index. ... #msg354209

by the way surrounding of Idlib province is now imminent. The large swathe of green inside the red as seen from last map posted by Singha.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 10:10

turkey has ignored usa and france calls to halt the shelling clearly because they have been given messages via back channels the calls to halt are for show only. if usa threatened to halt spares for their weapons, they would do a 180' in a heartbeat.

I looked at syria province map again today. the part of turkey that sticks out into syria (the su24 shootdown place) is the border of latakia and idlib. if the syrians take kinsibba pretty much all of latakia except a chain of villages right on the border would be in their hands. there is an area of deep forest and mountains marked green which might really be unoccupied due to lack of roads or economic importance.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 10:17

>>Clearly our problem isn't lack of money or fancy toys. It's a much deeper issue.

our timid security managers have long hesitated to take on even maldives - which is one town surrounded by a seawall when the pro-india kshatrap was overthrown. finally they have mustered the courage to send the vikky , a ddg and a tanker for a port visit enroute back to karwar after the IFR.

we are dueling with cheen to control maldives in our backyard

this is like cheen dueling with india for control of hainan island.

compare to how khan rides roughshod over places like grenada or panama to make sure only its certified clients occupy the throne there.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 10:18

'shadow CIA' aka stratfor uvacha .

Shadow CIA Warns Russian Air Power Would Stop Any Foreign Invasion of Syria

Stratfor, the US-based intelligence think tank often called the 'Shadow CIA', has released satellite photos showing a buildup of Russian air power at the Hmeymim Airbase in Latakia, northwest Syria. The think tank bluntly warns that if Turkey or Saudi Arabia were to attack Syrian forces, they would be "met with significant Russian air defenses."

In its report, Stratfor points out that "when Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 warplane on November 24, it did not just sour relations between Ankara and Moscow: It gave Russia a reason to build up its air defense capabilities in Syria."

And build up they did. "Before the incident, the Russian air cover burden depended on four deployed multirole Su-30 aircraft – clearly visible in a ready position near the runway in the recent imagery obtained by AllSource Analysis – that escorted strike packages."

However, "a week after the downing, Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers in Syria were spotted carrying R-27 air-to-air missiles. Russia also rushed advanced surface-to-air missile systems to Syria, including Buk systems and the long-range and highly capable S-400 system. The S-400 launch vehicles can be seen in a well-protected portion of the Bassel al-Assad air base [Hmeymim] near Latakia."

"Russia," Stratfor's analysis warned, "has enhanced its air defenses to prevent other countries from entering the Syrian conflict. There are increasing reports that Turkey could be considering direct military intervention in Syria. Even some Arab countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have made statements about possibly sending troops into the country."

"So, in mid-January, Russia reportedly began operating A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, which provide better situational awareness and bolster air responsiveness, over the country. [Moreover,] over the past weekend, four of Russia's advanced air superiority Su-35 fighter jets also arrived in Syria and began conducting combat air patrols."

"Finally," the analysis noted, "recently built Pantsyr-S2 systems, which combine missiles and anti-aircraft guns, were spotted in Russian media footage shot at Bassel al-Assad air base, likely replacing or complementing Pantsyr-S1 systems that were delivered earlier in the campaign."

Ultimately, Stratfor warns, "with such an extensive presence, Russia will be able to obstruct the war efforts of those opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The United States and its allies can still fly airstrikes against the Islamic State [Daesh], but the prospect of changing targets to include Syrian forces advancing on rebel position is greatly hindered by active Russian air support."

"Turkey and Saudi Arabia, for example, have long sought to oust the al-Assad government, but any attempt to unilaterally support the rebels with their own assets would be met with significant Russian air defenses."

For its part, the think tank suggests, "the United States is even more averse to escalating tension with Russia. Wishing to avoid losing focus on the fight against the Islamic State, the United States has no desire to confront Russian air power in the skies above Syria."

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Feb 2016 10:19

Hu is teaching them pingreji now? -- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbN1j1yUkAEGuwc.jpg

How very opportunistic of you, hu.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 10:24

azaz diameter is 1.5km and tel rifaat is 1km. each has about a dozen roads moving out radially.

so a man could jog diametrically across azaz in 10 mins, a car in 2 mins. its not a big "city" but probably has thick network of houses, narrow lanes and 100s of well armed rodents ... incl the 350 from Idlib.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 10:26

meanwhile a curious thing happening in Idlib, a large province bordering both Aleppo & lattakia but too backward for anyone to care to focus. Turkey shares a border with latakia-idlib border and that is how those rats escaping from aleppo scramble through turkey and land up back in Syria in Idlib.

IDLIB CITY: Escaping filth from Aleppo have dug up some new Fatwaa issued by the Grand Shaman of Jaysh Al-Fath claiming it gives them the right to occupy 300 homes in the city. The number of Chechen, Uigher and Uzbeki terrorist cannibals is estimated at around 775 including their insect-like progeny and their concubines. Here’s the problem: many of the homes they have commandeered belong to other terrorists. A major confrontation is expected to start at a time when the Syrian Army and its allies are chomping at the bits to invade Idlib and roast the 'spiritual guru' of the province, the Saudi export 'Dr'Abdullah Al-Muhaysini alive.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 15 Feb 2016 10:27

Turkey and Saudi have good reason to think they can win decisively. Latakia is vulnerable and very close to Incirlik air base; a large coordinated air attack would overwhelm the Russians (the S400 isn't a magical defense shield). As for the south, SAA even with more Russian arms is far too weak to oppose a large Saudi armored thrust. Air and open-desert tank warfare are the only kinds of fighting that Saudis are any good at; as long as they avoid gritty close action they're playing to their technological superiority. As for the Turks, they are at least as well-equipped as Russian ground forces, they're tough and there's a sh*tload of them; they can generate a huge numerical superiority anywhere along the shared border at any point of their choosing.

In a determined Turkey\Saudi attack scenario, I think Russians have no choice but to go nuclear on their invading forces, and at that point you might as well go all in and just wipe out both countries. This means calling US bluff and depending on how stupid the Americans are, possibly triggering WW3 and full nuclear exchange between US and Russia. It sounds extreme but I can't imagine Russia accepting such a humiliating military defeat and allowing their Syrian forces to be overrun. They're too proud.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 10:37

Y. Kanan, the balance of force scenario at North is 5:1.

turkey has 18,000 troops at Syrian border while SAA+allies are 100,000 at North.
turks do not enjoy air superiority inside Syria.
just today 6 F-16s were chased away by 2 Su-30SMs.

at South, the Saudis + allies have to make long trek with lumbering columns across open desert for 400 kms.
Will they reach raqqa or DeZ unmolested.
again they do not have air cover inside Syria.

what the Saudis are trying to do IMO, the Saudi are boosting the moral of the Jihadist by advertising a possible intervention so these don’t surrender easily and hold the ground for as long as possible.

Here is a great article in English on what military planners in Damascus intend to do about Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
https://elijahjm.wordpress.com

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Feb 2016 10:48

^^ the saudis must be betting on a more favourable hearing in a new US admin than what Obama gave them so far. their lobbying and political machinery in D.C must be in overdrive promising the moon to the all sides incl anti-iran hawks and the US MIC (massive new orders for weapons) and guaranteed surge production to keep price of oil low and hurt russia.

so until the elections they would likely build up forces, feed in more men and weapons, show the flag and hope better climate under new admin.

but unfortunately for the best laid plans, a trump would tell them to get lost probably and hillary sounds so discredited I doubt she will want a major foreign war right at the start of her term.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Feb 2016 10:59

only massive rigging can bring success to hillary. But it isn't something that hasn't happened there before.

some internet thing I heard a few weeks back was that 'Trilateral commission' viz deep state of USA had give around June to finish the Syrian adventure or else the global economy or oil prices could not be held down for more than that without irreparable damage. As with things regarding economy, only those who 'really' hold the reigns to economy can verify these, others can jaw-jaw endlessly.

the other 2 scenarios were openly discussed in an interview with Sergei Lavrov in a russian media. one was outright victory for Assad forces and take over of Raqqa. Second was outright intervention by NATO and thereby including all countries into war.