IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

[member_29245]

It will be a blessing in disguise if the deal now breaks down over the price. I hope UAE places large order for the Rafale and the French get adamant and refuse to do a frenchie.

If India then negotiates for the American Teens or Gripen or god forbid MIG35 our condition for new contract should be immediate delivery of a couple of squadrons worth of older airframes and return them as the new ones are delivered.

If we are looking for immideate delivery of few sqdns then neither gripen or mig 35/ is not an option

[vishvak]

If we want to just increase numbers, why not build brand new Mig 21s? One aim must be to increase production rate to 32/year as someone has suggested earlier.

[GeorgeWelch]

If we want to just increase numbers, why not build brand new Mig 21s? One aim must be to increase production rate to 32/year as someone has suggested earlier.

Because they aren't being made any more, so you'd have to create an entire supply chain from scratch

[Karan M]

Why not LCA Mk1s than MiG-21s hain jee?

[Karan M]

I would say that right now, the company with the most credibility with MOD and IAF/IN is Boeing. They have delivered on the C17 and the P8, on time (before time?) and the IAF and IN are happy with both aircraft. The F18 could be the dark horse that wins the race? Lockheed have also delivered on the C130, but their offering, the F16 is tainted with the PAF also using it.

Let US first fix its TSP obsession before IAF/MOD go full hog with the trust factor...

[NRao]

Why not LCA Mk1s than MiG-21s hain jee?

He has a point (blunt?). Who is going to keep MiG afloat? Not the Russians.

[shiv]

If we want to just increase numbers, why not build brand new Mig 21s? One aim must be to increase production rate to 32/year as someone has suggested earlier.

Because contrary to popular belief we never ever manufactured every single component of the MiG 21. An unknown (to me) number of parts and spares were always imported. We will have to set up new assembly lines for all that if we decide to make more MiG 21s. That would be a step backwards.

[member_26622]

In that case Hats off again to China. Not only did they not make 3x more than us, they even made money by supplying to North Korea and Paki puppies!

Surprised that we acknowledge rampant corruption but somehow seem to follow all foreign patents and laws? Guessing it's the legacy of British raj that has left us still meek to White skin!

[vishvak]

Why not LCA Mk1s than MiG-21s hain jee?

He has a point (blunt?). Who is going to keep MiG afloat? Not the Russians.

There is no such point.

It is probably much better that even Tejas production capacity of 32/year may not be sufficient totally, per logic of erring on side of caution. The scale up can be decreased later, the spares sufficient for a few flights going on and probably much better understanding of logistics right at the beginning phase - in any which way needed (ample spares, variation of it). Probably 48 or 64 per year and scaled down later is more appropriate than talking to every western manufacturer out there who can keep on sweetening the deal over time. That will probably also open up avenues towards totally indigenous logistics, or atleast an impetuous.

[Gyan]

I think IAF needs fleet wide DIRCM, aggressive deployment of towed decoys, sat comm on platforms but they are just whining for super duper costly shiny objects while waiting for Kargil moment redux.

[viveks]

This is not going to go through. Your should close this thread.

[shiv]

In that case Hats off again to China. Not only did they not make 3x more than us, they even made money by supplying to North Korea and Paki puppies!

Surprised that we acknowledge rampant corruption but somehow seem to follow all foreign patents and laws? Guessing it's the legacy of British raj that has left us still meek to White skin!

I would say hats off to sanctions and absence of democracy.

Why do I say this?

Because sanctions led them to set up duplicating lines for every component. Absence of democratic rights enabled them to avoid publishing or admitting to any news of accidents related to failed components. With respect I tend to see some comparisons with China as a case of "If only my aunt had a di( she could have been my uncle."

[NRao]

There is no such point.

Gnats would be a better choice.

[vishvak]

There is no such point.

Gnats would be a better choice.

A side note on some, tidbits from past http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1841040

[Cain Marko]

About the Boeing interest, let's examine what some stakeholders might find interesting...

DRDO ADA have stated..AMCA will have hornet engines.. 414s. A lot of the tech on the hornet is very high end and would possibly have a bearing on the amca, and possibly lca mk2 production
LCA navy will have same engine, hopefully Epes
navy is also looking at next gen fighters...shornet would fit the bill
Navy is also looking at catobar carrier with emals...Would be nice for them to have two fighter types with same engine
Do note that along with emals negotiations are ongoing for engine tech as well.
Not sure how hot the iaf will be for the super bug, but I'm guessing they won't complain if they see newer birds coming in...

For all of the above super hornet looks good...May be this will be Barack Obama's final coup. Of course the gripen also uses the same engine but doubt if they can really share any tot without uncle sams nod.

Boeing will come in hard and fast with massive offers for tie ups with indian private companies which will be salivating at the prospect. Odds don't look good for Saab not only because of above reasons but also because the lca will be a very close match and it seems to have shrugged off nagging problems

[member_22539]

^Not to mention that the Superbug has no more costs to recoup, nearing the end of its production run, unlike the Gripen and particularly the Rafale. Also, US weapons are far far cheaper than anything the French can sell. The only technical hiccup is the cold weather/high altitude trials being failed by it (probably fixable). The main concern is putting too much in the US basket and giving them too much leverage, but with the Su-30MKI and FGFA coming along, one can argue that it is a manageable risk.

[Austin]

They wont be buying any new types for sure , MOD will just bump up Tejas production numbers and MKI numbers , Likely Tejas would end up manufactured by private players atleast major components parts and finally assembled by HAL.

Benefits are many at the least logistics commonality and standardisation of Weapons integration on Indian system and wepons in these types.

The 36 Rafale would just serve SFC in Nuclear Strike Role , Medium and Distant future ( 10-20 years ) would rest on AMCA and FGFA.

Perhaps HAL would also build more Jags for DPSA role once they reengine that type and Combat HAWK in CAS core

[Philip]

The "take it or leave it moment has come" What are the odds? There's a strong pro-Rafale lobby at work,with a growing anti-Rafale lobby also building up steam with strong intl. backers salivating at the prospect of picking up the deal! Eco conditions have made it so.The diff of 20,000 crores is just "a bridge too far". In fairness,the GOI too should give the French a deadline so that if it is not poss. for Dassault to deliver the price we need,we can then say "au revoir" and immediately look for alternatives,"PLan B",whose existence the IAF once told us does not exist!

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 289833.ece

Rafale Slipstream: India not to Budge on Lowering Jets' Price
By Pradip R Sagar

Published: 22nd February 2016

NEW DELHI: Under pressure to conclude the much-hyped Rafale warplanes deal with France, Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials have fired a warning shot to the French negotiators to reduce the price by 30 per cent if they want to ink the deal in this financial year.

An MoD official said India wants to pay `65-68,000 crore (8 billion euros) for 36 Rafale fighter jets fitted high-end weapons and radars systems, while Dassault-which manufactures the aircraft-has quoted `90,000 crore (12 billion euros).

“Though the French have come down marginally on their previous stand, we have categorically told them to come down to nearly 30 per cent if they want to clinch the deal in the current financial year,” an MoD official told Express. IAF is expected to get the aircraft three years after signing the contract.

In the absence of a mutually agreed price, the deal could not be inked during French President Francois Hollande visit to New Delhi as chief guest for the during Republic Day. In a joint statement on January 25, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Hollande had hoped to sort out the financial aspects in “a couple of days”. Dassault Aviation had also said it expected a complete agreement on the planes in four weeks.

Dassault negotiators are believed to have committed setting up a production line in India, but MoD officials are sticking to serious cost bargaining. Moreover, France has also apparently agreed to 30 per cent offsets in the Rafale deal, which means French companies such as Dassault will have to plough 30 per cent of the contract value back into India as offsets. From the beginning, MoD was eyeing at least 20 per cent less per aircraft compared to what was offered in the 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft deal during UPA-II.

The 36 nuclear-capable Rafale jets will come to India in fly-away condition with weapon systems such as active electronically scanned phased array radar, high-end beyond visual range missiles and defensive weapon systems. During his France visit, the Prime Minister had announced the decision to buy 36 Rafale jets, citing operational necessity of IAF, which is down to 34 fighter squadrons against authorised strength of 42.

Just list out the alternatives.Even with reduced availability -compared to the Rafale's demanded "90%" fig,the cost/unit works out to more than $200M.One can get 3 MKIs for that price ,built in India too,not to mention the no. of LCAs,etc. It would be interesting to now see what the odds are of the rafale deal being concluded.

[rajsunder]

In that case Hats off again to China. Not only did they not make 3x more than us, they even made money by supplying to North Korea and Paki puppies!

Surprised that we acknowledge rampant corruption but somehow seem to follow all foreign patents and laws? Guessing it's the legacy of British raj that has left us still meek to White skin!

It is just a way to protect their income sources.

[ramana]

Philip, The French have not delivered on the other hand.

[Cosmo_R]

^^^ Knowing Boeing, if they do wind up establishing a line in India, they will keep tweaking it—not just in terms of blocks but extensions: Hornet > Super Hornet > Silent Hornet etc so that. Look at what they did with the 747 and 737. This incremental approach is exactly what our aerospace workers need as hands on experience to build up the local knowledge base. They'll spend money on the avionics and tech features with only few mods on the airframe.

It's good insurance for any delays to AMCA and FGFA

[NRao]

^^^^^

What do you understand by "a line" in India? Specifically which of the components - be it the F-16 or the F-18 - would be black boxes?

Used to be the AESA for sure.

[Khalsa]

Has anyone asked the Indian Air Force if a Solah or Shornet will do if the Rafael falls through.
Answer is they will probably say no thank you.

I believe the mention of Eff Solah and SHORNET is to seriously rattle the French Cage.
However if I can theorise on this , so can the french.

Its game over time.... we are in the penalty shootouts now. No time for strategy or deployment.
its limited shots and unlimited defence.

I believe this will take long due to the increased spotlight effect on this thanks to the media and folks like us.
Modi will come better off by walking away than having to explain every day the money given to the french.

[srai]

^^^^^

What do you understand by "a line" in India? Specifically which of the components - be it the F-16 or the F-18 - would be black boxes?

Used to be the AESA for sure.

Let another 10-year go by in negotiating white boxing items one-by-one

[Viv S]

About the Boeing interest, let's examine what some stakeholders might find interesting...

DRDO ADA have stated..AMCA will have hornet engines.. 414s. A lot of the tech on the hornet is very high end and would possibly have a bearing on the amca, and possibly lca mk2 production
LCA navy will have same engine, hopefully Epes
navy is also looking at next gen fighters...shornet would fit the bill
Navy is also looking at catobar carrier with emals...Would be nice for them to have two fighter types with same engine
Do note that along with emals negotiations are ongoing for engine tech as well.
Not sure how hot the iaf will be for the super bug, but I'm guessing they won't complain if they see newer birds coming in...

For all of the above super hornet looks good...May be this will be Barack Obama's final coup. Of course the gripen also uses the same engine but doubt if they can really share any tot without uncle sams nod.

If the Rafale is out of the picture, IMO the obvious replacement is the F-35A for a variety of reasons -

- The PAK FA is grossly behind schedule, especially with the level of maturity that the IAF requires. So this would help hedge bets. Also improves our negotiating position.

- Significant ToT isn't going to be available and its very much closed system. But for a limited order size (2-4 squadrons) we're unlikely to have any major expectations from any vendor on that account.

- Quite a bit of the routine customization can be achieved by piggybacking on Israeli plans. Also provides the option of Python 5 and Spice PGMs (possibly Derby ER too).

- For about $1.5 bn extra, we could setup a local assembly/MRO line which would be able to service exports & maintenance contracts (read: Singapore, South Korea, Gulf-based US forces).

- The B-variant would provide our STOBAR carriers with a stealthy complement to the MiGs & Tejas squadrons. Might be able to operate from our future LHDs too.

- With J-20 doing well, and the Su-35, S-400 entering the picture, in addition to the huge numbers of local Chinese systems (even the PAF is planning a HQ-16 buy IIRC), any new addition to the IAF's fleet needs to provide a significant capability bump over the already-in-production Su-30MKI (not really true for the SH, and to a lesser extent, same applies to the Rafale).

- Finally and most importantly, the F-35's cost has plummeted over the last few years. Flyaway cost is now down to less than $95 mil with the program looking very likely to beat the $85 mil target for 2019, and could well drag it below $80 mil . With the full package and accoutrements including weapons, the unit cost would be ~$200 mil, compared to the SH that will run us about $175 mil/unit.. probably more, since the production rate is being severely wound back. (Just for reference, the French are demanding $300 mil+ for a similar package.)

[Cosmo_R]

^^^^^

What do you understand by "a line" in India? Specifically which of the components - be it the F-16 or the F-18 - would be black boxes?

Used to be the AESA for sure.

Whatever Boeing stipulates it to be. No illusions about 50 state supply chain being replicated instantly in India. It's all incremental but with the impetus that the the SH is a dead-end for the US but with a future in India.

That's the theory. The practicality maybe... zilch if we don't have a plan to overcome the the 1980-21015 period of do nothing.

As a fully depreciated line for the SH, Boeing has the luxury of opening it up to a domestic aesa or whatever comes next.

[Cain Marko]

Viv, your point is taken, the jsf would be a far better purchase, however I don't see make in India possibility with it...the hornet production line could potentially be transferred bring older tech.

I think the govt intend to have a line that build most of the fighter...Not sure if an mro setep would satisfy this.

[Cain Marko]

Btw, does anyone know if the hornet international, the one with the epe engines and the stealth pod has flown and been tested?

[Austin]

Bullish Saab Sets Rollout Date For Gripen E
by Chris Pocock
- February 22, 2016, 8:19 AM

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... e-gripen-e

Saab will roll out the first Gripen E version at Linkoping, Sweden on May 18, said Richard Smith, the company’s head of marketing and sales for the combat aircraft. In a bullish briefing at the Singapore Airshow last week, Smith said that thanks to the 60 new-build E/F jets for Sweden, plus the Brazilian Gripen order and other surveillance and submarine programs, the Swedish company’s backlog was at an all-time high of $13.5 billion. The Gripen thus has a guaranteed long-term future, and the sales goal was “at least 300 more,” Smith said.

Smith described the “huge technical transfer program” associated with the Brazilian acquisition of Gripen. This includes 50 key projects in four categories, and is an expanded version of the model used in South Africa’s Gripen deal. Last October, the first 48 of an eventual 350 Brazilian engineers arrived in Sweden to work on the project. Fifteen of the expected 36 Gripens to be acquired by Brazil will be built by Embraer at a Development Center to be established at Gaviao Peixato. The center will also help develop the two-seat Gripen F and integrate weapons. There had been no slow-down of the Brazilian program, despite that country’s recent economic difficulties, Smith told AIN. Preliminary design of a Sea Gripen version had been completed, with a potential Brazilian requirement in mind, Smith said. “Now we must do a market analysis,” he added

Meanwhile, development of the existing Gripen C/D version was continuing. The Swedish air force was introducing the MS20 upgrade that includes a new radar processor and receiver/exciter, a new IRST (infrared search and track), and new weapons. The Mk4 radar upgrade provides longer range to exploit the new MBDA Meteor BVRAAM (beyond visual range air-to-air missile), which Sweden will be the first to declare operational.

Reviewing sales prospects, Smith said final negotiations with Slovakia for eight new C/Ds were in progress; Bulgaria and Croatia were also prospects in eastern Europe. Belgium required 30-36 new fighters to replace F-16s, and Finland between 48 and 60 new jets to replace F/A-18C/Ds. Saab had discussed a third batch of six Gripens with Thailand, where the company hopes to eventually sell a total of 36. Indonesia was “still a prospect” said Smith, where the Saab 2000 AEW aircraft was also being offered, after the success of that combination in Thailand. Malaysia had been offered a lease of 16 aircraft, he said.

With a huge fleet of MiG-21s to replace, India “was a perfect fit, and we see a huge possibility to satisfy the ‘Make in India’ policy,” Smith added.

[Karan M]

Its always been their strategy to somehow supplant the LCA program and anyone sane can see that. Good on Parrikar to have forced the IAFs hand with Mk1A. Hope he now leans on HAL to do its share and not fritter away its energy on programs like the Combat Hawk or whatever.

[Philip]

The Gripen will be a better choice than either of the US's aging birds.That's if a western bird is what the IAF wants.Much cheaper than the Raffy and will take up the slack for LCA prod too.Bothy Gripen and LCAs can be built/acquired in the hundreds. The Gripen acquisition could ccelerate LCA MK-2/whatever deve. The obvious bird for a twin-engine alternative is the MIG-29/35,esp as the aircraft is in service.

Any JSF deal would take light years before such a deal is thrashed through with the US so sensitive on providing us with high tech.If they are so unwilling to give us N-reactor tech for a carrier ,forget about the JSF,AESA radars,stealth,etc.,etc. The intrusive inspection regime is simply unacceptable to the IAF and would cripple our offensive ops against Pak or China.

With momentum on "make in India" setups with Indian cos. for spares/components for Russian fighters,which will hugely increase aircraft availability,More MKIs with the latest LR BVR AAMs,BMos,etc., would give the IAF a clear qualitative advantage over the PLAAF and PAF.That is until the Chinese stealth birds arrive,why the FGFA deal should be sealed in some form or the other this year.

[Vipul]

Unit cost for Gripen is listed at $43 Million on Wiki. They signed a $4.6 Billion Deal with Brazil for 36 aircrafts. So what will be the cost with TOT if offered to India. Will it be a Rafale like rigmarole all over again?

[ramana]

Philip, Put on your geopolitical hat.
Rafale is a geopolitical buy.

Best option would be a US plane to show India is in the good books and post 1974 sanctions don't apply anymore.
However US messed up by sending old planes. Shows they haven't yet reconciled.

Rafale is a major French/Western plane with US sanctions proof.

Gripen is not.

However French don't see it that way.
They want more now rather than later in the relationship.
Its like high present value price for entry into the system.
In ten years India will be $10T economy and should be thinking of $500M space combat planes.
So French want their pound of flesh for entry into the system.
That's what is going on.

US has now changed tack and is offering F18 or F16 line lock stock and barrel.
They need the money and to show they have friends as EU-West Asia is changing.

However Gripen keeps coming in like its bazaar thing.

If India goes for Gripen it will get sanctioned by US vagaries.


MMRCA is not about the plane but about the high table.

[Austin]

ramana what do you suggest which plane we should/should not opt for ?

[VKumar]

India should opt for LCA but that has US engine.

[ramana]

ramana what do you suggest which plane we should/should not opt for ?

What ever NaMo decides based on available inputs.

[nirav]

ramana what do you suggest which plane we should/should not opt for ?

What ever NaMo decides based on available inputs.

If under DTTI or whatever GoI can get some sanction proof arrangement from the Americans, then the Super Hornet makes the most sense.
The Pakis have extracted a lot out of uncle. Uncle needs us more wrt the Dragon strategically in the long run. No reason why we shouldnt leverage it to get uncle to do a proper 'give and take' ..

iirc, the 99 engine tender for F414s for LCAMkII involved "Make in India'
Engine commonality of the F414s will work in our favour @ super bug and LCA MkII.

Compared to US,France doesn't really have much to offer us strategically.

[Viv S]

Viv, your point is taken, the jsf would be a far better purchase, however I don't see make in India possibility with it...the hornet production line could potentially be transferred bring older tech.

The assembly line could be shifted but it would be prohibitively costly to try shifting the supplier base to India. And that still leaves the other point viz. the capability delivered vis a vis the (still cheaper) Su-30MKI.

I think the govt intend to have a line that build most of the fighter...Not sure if an mro setep would satisfy this.

Assembly line, not just an MRO. They should be able to sell that as a 'Make-in-India' project.

In light of the MMRCA's collapse, I don't think manufacturing most of the fighter is a viable option at this point. In practice, it'd take us over a decade to indigenize and assimilate the design (the Su-30MKI being an apt example). Do we really want to be manufacturing the SH in 2027, when the USN would have initiated the retirement process for the type?

[Viv S]

The Gripen will be a better choice than either of the US's aging birds.That's if a western bird is what the IAF wants. Much cheaper than the Raffy and will take up the slack for LCA prod too.Bothy Gripen and LCAs can be built/acquired in the hundreds. The Gripen acquisition could ccelerate LCA MK-2/whatever deve. The obvious bird for a twin-engine alternative is the MIG-29/35,esp as the aircraft is in service.

That would be an excellent way to hobble the Tejas Mk1 and kill off the Tejas Mk2. The IAF isn't going to touch the MiG-29/35 if it can avoid it. Not to mention, it too provides very limited capability increment over the Tejas. It'll will of course help keep the Russian industry humming, so there's upside to that.

Any JSF deal would take light years before such a deal is thrashed through with the US so sensitive on providing us with high tech.If they are so unwilling to give us N-reactor tech for a carrier ,forget about the JSF,AESA radars,stealth,etc.,etc. The intrusive inspection regime is simply unacceptable to the IAF and would cripple our offensive ops against Pak or China.

If we want tech, we're better off investing in domestic R&D (on projects the Tejas rather than Russian & Swedish alternatives to it). The F-35 is cost effective and will function as an outstanding force multiplier, which is good enough for a limited order. Plus whatever the Navy orders.

With momentum on "make in India" setups with Indian cos. for spares/components for Russian fighters,which will hugely increase aircraft availability,More MKIs with the latest LR BVR AAMs,BMos,etc., would give the IAF a clear qualitative advantage over the PLAAF and PAF.That is until the Chinese stealth birds arrive,why the FGFA deal should be sealed in some form or the other this year.

The primary Chinese stealth bird i.e. the J-20 has already entered series production. And even if it hadn't the Su-30MKI would still not provide any 'clear qualitative advantage' over the Flanker-heavy PLAAF. The advantage would at best be incremental, and there too mostly in the air-to-ground role (thanks to Litening 4) and eventually (albeit to a lesser extent) in close-combat (Topsight I + Python 5).

[NRao]

So, back to square one?

If so, Advanced Super Hornet, F/A-18.

Multipurpose - fighter, attack, EW, fueled, etc (in same platform) and with very good growth potential - good amount of planned space.

I still do not have an idea of what India would get in such a deal.