The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Feb 2016 20:28

Indian ambassador to Syria Shri V P Haran in 2012

Thx

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2016 20:29

joint YPG-SAA moves in west aleppo

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Feb 2016 21:25

yea .. nivedita haran is his wife. ,

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2016 21:32

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2016 21:35

I can see that azaz is going to be bombarded into rubble at some point by artillery and air.
some 2000 nusra have been pushed in to hold it.

NW aleppo is already under heavy air bombardment and matter of time before that blue belt is breached and rolled up from both ends.

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 26 Feb 2016 23:29

The wars in the Middle East and the historical videos of WW2 that I have been watching in the past few days tells one important lesson. Manpower.

The Syrian state almost folded because of manpower shortages. It's is the shortage of manpower, not weapons, which almost lost the war. The Russian were able to defeat the Germans by constantly maintaining 6 Million troops from 1942 despite heavy losses.

I have concluded, India is not over-populated place. 1.3 billion people with millions of fighting age men available every year, Indian population is a f***king assest !

Other than nukes, nothing can wipe out this assest.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 26 Feb 2016 23:49

Its the sectarian divide thats the key weakness and not the strength of population , Syria got screwed due to the same , external forces making good of sectarian divide and the government not responding to it in timely matter

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 27 Feb 2016 00:12

Austin wrote:Its the sectarian divide thats the key weakness and not the strength of population , Syria got screwed due to the same , external forces making good of sectarian divide and the government not responding to it in timely matter

Either sides(whatever be the cause of the fight), it's the manpower which is deciding the result. Even for rebels, it the availability of manpower which has been the factor to push the gov back from parts of the country.

What if SAA had access to 2-3 million soldiers? would it have required RuAF support? The fight in Yemen, What makes the Houthis so resilsent?

I am taking a general lesson from these wars to applied for India. We have the numbers, just need to make sure we can make it bear on a foe when required.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 27 Feb 2016 00:39

nit wrote:The wars in the Middle East and the historical videos of WW2 that I have been watching in the past few days tells one important lesson. Manpower.

The Syrian state almost folded because of manpower shortages. It's is the shortage of manpower, not weapons, which almost lost the war. The Russian were able to defeat the Germans by constantly maintaining 6 Million troops from 1942 despite heavy losses.

I have concluded, India is not over-populated place. 1.3 billion people with millions of fighting age men available every year, Indian population is a f***king assest !

Other than nukes, nothing can wipe out this assest.

Uh, do you really want to fight like that? I wouldn't recommend it.

Certainly not against a completely ruthless enemy.

And certainly not against a modern mechanized, combined arms force that can come against you with a wall of force projection that can extend from the ground up to outer space. The US is already there with this kind of force projection and believe me, China is aspiring to it as well as Russia. And if other nations could afford it, they would do it too.

Trust me, conventional arms can be a weapon of mass destruction which combined with starvation and disease, and it can be very effective in wiping out large peasant populations with ruthless cunning.

Destruction of dams, electrical facilities, hospitals, water treatment plants, and other key infrastructure destruction can be incredibly deadly to a resident population. And that's just love taps for the kind of force I have described.

When the US Army fought in WW2 it had to control starvation and disease outbreaks like typhus when it assumed control of resident populations. A really ruthless enemy wouldn't bother with such nonsense.

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 27 Feb 2016 00:52

TSJones wrote:
Uh, do you really want to fight like that? I wouldn't recommend it.

Certainly not against a completely ruthless enemy.

And certainly not against a modern mechanized, combined arms force that can come against you with a wall of force projection that can extend from the ground up to outer space. The US is already there with this kind of force projection and believe me, China is aspiring to it as well as Russia. And if other nations could afford it, they would do it too.

Trust me, conventional arms can be a weapon of mass destruction which combined with starvation and disease, can be very effective in wiping out large peasant populations with ruthless cunning.

And there is no manpower behind a "modern mechanised combined arms"? Would US be able to sustain a army of 1M+ if it's population was similar to some of the European states? rather than the current 400 million. One thing people easily forget is that US is the largest populated of all the western countries.

What is your describing is how is to fight. What I am stating is that "wall of force" requires a foundation of manpower to sustain. Just like a US soldier, I am pretty sure a Indian soldier can be taught combined arms.

The German army was combined arms in 1940. What was left of it against the Soviets?

member_29190 · Post by **member_29190** » 27 Feb 2016 00:58

TSJones wrote:
When the US Army fought in WW2 it had to control starvation and disease outbreaks like typhus when it assumed control of resident populations. A really ruthless enemy wouldn't bother with such nonsense.

Pre D-Day bombing by Alies caused 15k French civilian deaths. Entire cities within civilians were destroyed by allies bombing in their drive towards Berlin. So allies were not less ruthless in their objectives.

It is given war is ruthless. Both sides will fight ruthlessly.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Feb 2016 01:21

A well trained, well equipped, highly motivated force will always be able to prevail over a force at least a few times its size. Raw manpower without training and technology is a complete waste. India has a lot of people. Its an asset. Lets leave it at that.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 06:09

manpower is already a big issue in european militaries. the bigger ones can barely put 2 complete divisions in the field and mostly just a rapid brigade on most days. cold war conscription and high manning is gone. the german army is a shadow of its former self. dutch have retired all their tanks to save money.

euros just get along by pooling resources and relying on usa for logistical support and gap fillers. they cannot for instance mount a air campaign in middle east or africa without US refuelers and supplies of munitions . even the KSA cannot mount a campaign in yemen let alone over iran without US refuelers and huge orders of munitions.

same goes for russian allies like iran and syria - sorely dependent on big brother.

so even population alone is not the lifesaver . it is population + massive indigenous weapons MIC + massive ready use stockpile - by that account only usa, russia and china make the cut. india has its thumbs up its backside on the 2nd and 3rd item and the 1st item is a accident of birth (literally) with no real govt "world domination plan" behind it.
we bumble along as usual - too large to defeat, too large to change easily.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Feb 2016 06:20

Which brings us to the only real SuperPower: 157million humanoids, each armed with an AK47, RPG and soosai vest. pakistan between their ears.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 06:24

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 06:25

IS still to be cleared further south in hamman village

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 06:27

Ahmad Al-Issa ‏@ahmadalissa 4h4 hours ago
#Syria and the ceasefire: Calm on all fronts in #Hama countryside

Ahmad Al-Issa ‏@ahmadalissa 4h4 hours ago
#Syria and the Cease fire: Calm in #Damascus and no sound of the usual shelling
https://www.facebook.com/radioshamfm
11 retweets 10 likes

Ahmad Al-Issa ‏@ahmadalissa 4h4 hours ago
#Syria and the ceasefire: NO ceasefire after midnight in #Daraa Province: #Nusra_Front is shelling residential NBHDs

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 06:42

JN counter offensive in sheikh akil NW of aleppo - this lot look far more professional than the ISIS fighters

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 06:47

JN leader Joulani:

Anna Ahronheim
‏@AAhronheim
#Joulani says the real negotiations occur in the "trenches" and if the war isn't won in #Syria, he will bring it to neighboring countries

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 27 Feb 2016 10:34

During the 11 yr long Iraq-Iran war, Saddam's army was much superior technically, and was supported by the western high-tech plus chemical weapons. Yet, Iraq was checkmated by the Iranian mullahs by sending waves after waves of poorly trained village folks. Eventually Iraqi army folded under the sheer pressure of Iranian numbers....
....So, numbers do matter.......

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Feb 2016 10:46

Al-Nusra gang appeared in 2011-2012, so it is tough to say how Al-Nusra have become any more professional than some rival gangs. From wiki

Nusra and ISIL are both against the Druze, the difference being that Nusra is apparently satisfied with destroying Druze shrines and making them become Sunnis while ISIL wants to violently annihilate them as it does to Yazidis.[69]

Different shades of barbarism. Seems to have been formed in step as need to hit Syria arose.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 11:05

>> numbers do matter.......

definitely. the US army is scary not just due to high tech but huge numbers both of men and materials. if reduced to a couple of divs it would be like the UK army.

VVV
Nusra could be radicalized ex-SAA and other retired vets of various trans-national wars. they are local to syria, skillful dealmakers, secretive, flexible ... no wonder they are able to blend in and work with any other group including the chechens and turkomans.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 27 Feb 2016 11:20

Did anyone see that BBC clip of a Syrian helo dropping what looked like 4 barrel bombs on town? Simply stunning. The use of helos as "bombers" is a new development.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 11:54

And they seem deadly precise unlike ccip unguided bombs

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 11:55

Mi24 has a kind of Bomb bay for a single 200kg thing since induction I think..its a space under the floor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 12:55

a very senior hezbollah field commander in syria and a IRGC colonel are confirmed KIA in the khanasser operations.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 15:49

Russia MoD says 70 drones are monitoring areas where ceasefire has taken place #Syria

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 27 Feb 2016 16:54

Kati wrote:numbers do matter.......

Well, definitely. But without the right technological or leadership backing, they can go waste too.

Like the Syrian war here, the Turks and Sauds are still throwing thousands of bodies into this war. These orcs are definitely well trained and organized as Nusra types have shown in their counter offensives. But all of it is waste, simply because they are not backing them up with their full military support (read air cover) to protect against the Russian bombs.

Just 40-50 Russian fighter-bombers have turned the tide in a war, famously described by a Saudi cleric as "1.5 billion Sunnis against 150 million Shias". Simply because the powers in control of the Sunni bloc are too scared to commit themselves fully, fearing counter escalations from the Russians. The Russians won WW2 and the Iranians beat Iraq not only because they had the numbers, they also committed for an all or nothing approach. The rich Sunnis cannot do that as they have too much to lose.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 17:18

I would say you need all of these - manpower, technology, production, stockpiles and ruthless commitment to be a top dog.

america, russia and to a large extent china now has all of these in spades.

the rest of wannabe's lack one thing or the other.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 27 Feb 2016 18:35

Philip wrote:Did anyone see that BBC clip of a Syrian helo dropping what looked like 4 barrel bombs on town? Simply stunning. The use of helos as "bombers" is a new development.

We've practiced bomb dropping from Mi 17s. Pretty accurate drops and scores (with a little practice

). Simple, free fall stuff.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 18:38

Abu Saeed al-Halabi ‏@AbuSaeedHalabi 23h23 hours ago
"The war has just begun". Pro-#Nusra, anti-ceasefire demonstrations all over #Idlib province.

Abu Saeed al-Halabi ‏@AbuSaeedHalabi 20h20 hours ago
For those who didn't listen to Sh. al-Julani's speech. A summarize in one sentence: 'No ceasefire or truce, it's Victory or Martyrdom

Abu Saeed al-Halabi ‏@AbuSaeedHalabi 16h16 hours ago
5 minutes after ceasefire: 5 missiles fired toward S-Aleppo by the mujahidin. More coming...

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 27 Feb 2016 18:38

Shanu wrote:
Kati wrote:numbers do matter.......
Well, definitely. But without the right technological or leadership backing, they can go waste too.

Like the Syrian war here, the Turks and Sauds are still throwing thousands of bodies into this war. These orcs are definitely well trained and organized as Nusra types have shown in their counter offensives. But all of it is waste, simply because they are not backing them up with their full military support (read air cover) to protect against the Russian bombs.

Just 40-50 Russian fighter-bombers have turned the tide in a war, famously described by a Saudi cleric as "1.5 billion Sunnis against 150 million Shias". Simply because the powers in control of the Sunni bloc are too scared to commit themselves fully, fearing counter escalations from the Russians. The Russians won WW2 and the Iranians beat Iraq not only because they had the numbers, they also committed for an all or nothing approach. The rich Sunnis cannot do that as they have too much to lose.

This article from SouthFront explains the hole SAA resurgence and Russian assistance. There is a video too with the article.

http://southfront.org/russia-defense-re ... um=twitter

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Feb 2016 18:40

meantime ISIS entered Tel aybad on the border, from turkish side and attacked kurds. it is east of kobani

Kovan Direj ‏@kovandire 14h14 hours ago
update #talabyad
4 group of #ISIS eneterd to the city from turkey,just one stil alive around elecratcity CMP S- the city #TwitterKurds

Kovan Direj ‏@kovandire 14h14 hours ago
breaking
#ISIS dead body are over the street inside the city as #ypg pushed #isis out the city #twitterkurds

Kovan Direj ‏@kovandire 14h14 hours ago
breaking #talabyad
#turkey
opened the bordergate for #ISIS to enter to city #TwitterKurds

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Feb 2016 19:36

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Feb 2016 20:09

Bill Clinton gets asked some very uncomfortable questions campaigning for hillary. Ultimately has no choice but to 'evict the questioners'.

https://youtu.be/TXypM__frpI

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Feb 2016 03:29

Will Russia cancel its 1921 friendship treaty with Turkey?
http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/h ... 7-78607557

Conference, in Le Bourget, outside Paris, Monday, Nov. 30, 2015. Photo: AP
Rising tensions in Russian-Turkish relations over the civil war in Syria are leading to new attempts by Russian politicians to impose political costs on Turkey for interfering in Syria. The latest move – an attempt to annul the Moscow Treaty of Friendship and Brotherhood with Turkey signed on March 16, 1921 – could have repercussions not just for the Middle East, but also for the former Soviet republics of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.The Treaty of Moscow was concluded and signed between Bolshevik Russia and Kemalist Turkey on March 16, 1921. This occurred shortly after the Sovietization of the Caucasus republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, all of which existed as tenuous independent republics ever since the collapse of Russian rule in 1918. Notably, the campaign to regain Transcaucasia was led by Caucasian Bolsheviks, such as Joseph Stalin, Sergo Ordzhonikidze, and Anastas Mikoyan.Although the Bolsheviks managed to secure much of pre-Revolutionary Transcaucasia, the westernmost districts came under the military occupation of Turkish nationalist forces, led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.These included the provinces of Artvin, Ardahan, and Kars, annexed by the Russian Empire in the aftermath of the 1877-78 Russo-Turkish war. It also included the district of Surmali (today Turkey’s Iğdır Province), with Mount Ararat and the salt mines of Kulp (Tuzluca). This district had been part of Russian Armenia since 1828 and, before that time, part of Persian Armenia since the Persian-Ottoman Treaty of Zohab in 1639.The treaty was reaffirmed in October 1921 with the Treaty of Kars and the borders it established have been maintained ever since. However, this did not mean that Soviet policymakers necessarily accepted the terms of the treaty as permanent. After World War II, when the Soviet Union was at the zenith of its power, its leader Stalin reopened the issue on behalf of Armenia and his native Georgia. Supported by Moscow, both republics began to assert territorial claims against Ankara. According to Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, Stalin made this move at the insistence of Lavrentiy Beria, the deputy premier and a fellow Georgian.
“Beria egged Stalin on over the Turkish question,” recalled Khrushchev in his memoirs. “He proposed that we officially approach Turkey and present our territorial claims. This policy drove the Turks into the arms of the United States.”Indeed, Ankara sought the support of Washington, which had become suspicious of Soviet intentions with the onset of the Cold War. The issue was eventually dropped by Moscow and by 1952 Turkey had joined the NATO military alliance, precluding any further discussion on border revisions.
The re-examination of the 1921 Moscow Treaty by the Russian Foreign Ministry has significant implications for Russian policy toward Turkey and the former Soviet republics of the Caucasus. If the treaty is cancelled, it could leave the door open for a possible revision of Turkey’s borders with Armenia and Georgia. Realistically, however, it is unlikely that Moscow will totally nullify its 1921 treaty with Ankara and become involved in the business of dramatically revising borders.
Although Armenia and Georgia attach great historical importance to the northeastern Turkish provinces in question, they are largely inhabited by Muslim Turks and Kurds. Neither of these groups would favor joining Armenia and Georgia. There are pockets of Islamified Georgian communities in northeastern Turkey. However, over the past 95 years of Turkish rule, they have become assimilated into Turkish society. Therefore, it is unlikely that they would favor joining Georgia, a country shaped by both its distinct Christian identity and 70 years of Soviet rule.
There is one section of the 1921 border that Moscow could potentially call into question. This would be the ruined medieval Armenian city of Ani, situated in the Turkish province of Kars. Known as the city of 1,001 churches, Ani was once a major political, cultural, and commercial center for the Armenian branch of the Bagratuni royal family. Its glory days long since past, the city is today completely desolate and uninhabited. It is located immediately on the Turkish-Armenian frontier in a geographically distinct area defined by the Bostanlar (or Alaca) Canyon to the west, the Akhurian River to the east, and the Ani city walls to the north.
Notably, when Zakharova announced that the Foreign Ministry would review the 1921 treaty, she also emphasized that Russia is “developing relations with Azerbaijan and will not do anything that could worsen them. On the contrary, we will focus on what could improve our relations with this ountry.”The Kremlin’s re-evaluation of the 1921 Treaty of Moscow represents only the latest episode in the recent saga of Russo-Turkish tensions. Regardless of the outcome, it is clear that the impact of this saga on the Caucasus is already being felt.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 28 Feb 2016 09:32

Ceasefire came into effect yesterday and it has held by and large among the parties which agreed except one reported violation

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/re ... -damascus/

YPG held off a massive ISIS attack on Tel Abyad in northern Raqqa governorate with fair aerial support from the Coalition fighter aircraft.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ku ... aqqa-city/

SAA is yet to clear the route to Aleppo as ISIS still has the road in fire control at the Al-‘Azeeb Checkpoint on the Hilal Ithriya road.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/im ... Khanasser.

A massive ISIS offensive in east Hama from ISIS failed to break SAA defenses despite 07 VBIED attacks.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ma ... res-tayba/

A detailed report on yesterday's action is available here
http://southfront.org/syria-battlefield ... um=twitter

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 28 Feb 2016 09:55

Austin wrote:Its the sectarian divide thats the key weakness and not the strength of population , Syria got screwed due to the same , external forces making good of sectarian divide and the government not responding to it in timely matter

Unfortunately we're also one of those countries that was born with this inherent flaw.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 28 Feb 2016 10:24

The 'rebels' are now trading their US supplied weapons on Facebook

http://www.foreigndesknews.com/world/mi ... -facebook/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 Feb 2016 20:25

Russian Mi-17 in Syria carries the DIRCM Pods link