Indian Missiles and Munitions Discussion - June'14

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 16 Mar 2016 00:57

Ramana ji,
The angst is making guys lose perspective and decorum.

IGMDP took 25 years to be formally declared as "completed" in 2008.
Work on Agni V continued through those 10 years that you've mentioned and was also tested then. I'm not denying geo political factors coming into play in the testing phase but the CTs being propagated here are making uncle sam the sole factor for the time taken for testing and eventual deployment.
Given the strategic nature of the AV program, we just won't have RTI type discussion on it by the powers that be.

There could have been n number of reasons for delay in testing. One cold speculate that govt decided they want to deploy A V only in canisterized form post the initial tests. Could be something else.

Spinning out CTs and engaging in incessant Rona dhona is just a waste of everyone's time.
T20 world cup affecting Agni V test !?

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 16 Mar 2016 02:31

IGMDP took 25 years partly because when it started, we started from scratch. That is not the case now, with systems far bigger than the A-5 being operationalized by ISRO and production of such systems (think PSLV) on a scale of 12-18 p.a will soon be a reality. 3-4 tests p.a for A-5 is very feasible if the political green light is there.

The very fact that testing and operationalization is a long process (3-5 years even with the best schedule) means that delays of several months in tests for political reasons is unacceptable. Political reasons could very well be why deployment is taking undue time. In this case, both with the A-4 test that happened in November (originally scheduled for Aug. end) and the current A-5 test, we are seeing this sort of delay. This was of course, expected of a compromised entity like the UPA govt.

Unfortunately, the Modi govt. seems to be following the same path. How much ever one tries to cover this up and brush it under the carpet, the fact is becoming increasingly evident. A national interest minded opposition would have hauled the govt. over the coals for this. But we all know that the current opposition is like. Even an Iran that is just out of string sanctions is testing ballistic missiles without restraint (to the best of their abilities). Wonder why we should show any restraint on this front.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Mar 2016 12:18

Nirav,

You are missing the point.

Have you thought about the operational bandobast required for running a WC?

Testing a agni-1 which is an already operationalized missile vs testing a new developmental beast like agni5 with possible MIRV would need completely different level of effort. It has nothing to do with the intention and everything to do with de-risking.

For the same reason you would find no major military training exercise or developmental space flights during the same WC. Don't look for CT where it does not exist.

member_28386 · Post by **member_28386** » 16 Mar 2016 12:52

BTW, we do not have to forget that the ships which shall track have also to get into position very far from Indian Shores and the weather prevailing over a large part of the Southern Indian Ocean will be critical for purpose of post launch telemetry.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 16 Mar 2016 15:27

2 More tests were to be completed within one year of the last test ie by January 2016 for induction by end of this year. Waiting onlee for the 40 inch chest to be pumped to 56 inches!!!!

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 16 Mar 2016 15:31

We are making hardly not even making 1k Aakash missile a year

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 425789.cms

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 16 Mar 2016 15:35

A-5 test launch cancelled
Posted on March 16, 2016 by Bharat Karnad
Just learned that the test firing of the canisterized Agni-5 that was earlier scheduled for yesterday and postponed virtually at the last hour, has now been cancelled altogether, at least in the present time window. This decision at the highest levels of govt was owing to Washington’s supposed allergy to rising powers displaying their distant strike capabilities. The K-4 SLBM fired from a moored underwater pontoon tube system tested March 8 was, unlike the A-5, not in a ready state of induction. A-5, hermetically sealed in a canister with a dummy warhead, was set to be launched from its mobile platform to its full range, whence the Modi PMO’s hesitation.

http://bharatkarnad.com/2016/03/16/a-5- ... cancelled/

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 16 Mar 2016 16:03

Can we trust Bharat Karnad on this? Iss he related to Girissh Karnad who has axe to grind

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 16 Mar 2016 16:16

If India has such a meek and apologizing attitude while testing a 5000 KM range missile which does not directly affect the US, what will be the state of affairs when it finally decides to test a 12,000 KM missile which will be of true concern to Uncle Sam? I guess India will get the permission to go ahead once the star wars or any other program of a space based missile shield is operationalized by America!!!!

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 Mar 2016 16:43

Very disappointing.

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 16 Mar 2016 17:29

Karthik S wrote:Very disappointing.

Please do not trust Bharat Karnad on this. he is a western apologist always ready to put us down

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Mar 2016 17:45

India to double missile production to 100 per month

So a year's production would be 1200 SAMs of which, say 10% would be needed for testing etc so some 1000 are left in inventory. Means roughly 5 missiles per day leaving the assembly line.
This is good, but.. not nearly enough to get enough operational experience. Example that someone cited long back in article dissing "Golf" Nadkarni's dissing of the LCA, was that the NATO Bloodhound, also a SAM, was tested some 4000 times even b4 induction into NATO operational inventory. Of course that was 1960s-70s and Indians are so much smarter in 2016. But this identifies the key problem that DRDO faces:

no serious production capability in India, and therefore, very sparse operational data on which to base improvements.

Quote from someone hu shall not b named.
But it also shows the sheer numbers needed to really make a difference in a war. Distribute 5 years' inventory (around 5000 SAMs) and you get enough for maybe 1000 launcher crews. This is a very very thin line unless the attacks are coming all where it is expected; very little left for area defence around strategic installations in the interior.
Look at what the Russians expended in Syria inside 5 months (OK, not SAMs but other kinds of missiles), and they were fighting someone who had no airforce. IOW, not facing a wave of HARMs that knock out 30% of the missile sites in the first 30 minutes, like what would happen in a Paki or Chinese (or "other") attack.
Tough problem, but I think production efficiency has to be boosted say 10-fold and the costs brought down accordingly. I would say at least some 20K to 50K SAMs should be installed before one diversifies production to bring in smaller numbers of more exotic missiles.

My impression (OK, bring on the missiles) from what I have seen of ppl from these organizations, is that the Defense Production establishments are not serious places. I mean, not serious about getting production rates up, quality up, and costs down. Way too chalta hai.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 16 Mar 2016 17:47

Picklu wrote:Nirav,

You are missing the point.

Have you thought about the operational bandobast required for running a WC?

Testing a agni-1 which is an already operationalized missile vs testing a new developmental beast like agni5 with possible MIRV would need completely different level of effort. It has nothing to do with the intention and everything to do with de-risking.

For the same reason you would find no major military training exercise or developmental space flights during the same WC. Don't look for CT where it does not exist.

Picklu ji,

your point is very flawed.

Bandobast for running the world cup is done by state pandus where matches are held. State pandus dont have much role in testing ballistiic mijjiles ..
And since the Agni 1 is an 'operational' mijjile, this test would have involved transporting it from where it was deployed to wheeler island. It would have been based within 700 KMs of Paki or Chinese targets before being transported to wheeler ..

No T20 WC bandobast qualms there.

Here the IAF Iron fist 2016 promo talks about "demonstrating the capability to punish" 1:04
IAF doesnt seem to have hangups on T20 worldcup "bandobast". Its on 18th Of March 2016 btw, just a day before Indo Pak match.

And here is the Indian Army which exercised with 18+ countries and had hosted them in Pune between 2-8th March.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 310954.ece

Military personnel of adversarial world powers converged upon the Aundh Military Station in Pune to thrall spectators with the largest Multinational Field Training Exercise (FTX) ever conducted on Indian soil.

The week-long exercise, being held from March 2 to 8, is christened ‘Force 18’ (initially labelled ‘FTX-2016’).

The spectacle is an elaborate and ambitious military training exercise involving Army units from eighteen countries, often locked as adversaries in the arena of global realpolitik.

They include nine members of the Association of South East Asian Nations and eight observer States, that include India, Japan, Korea, China, Russia, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Myanmar was compelled to back out owing to elections and security issues pertaining to border infiltration.

Btw this is from Bharat Karnads website, the "about" section.

He is also a TV analyst and writes a fortnightly column in the New Indian Express, and is an occasional contributer to Seminar, India Today, Open Magazine, Huffington Post (India), and the Quint.

It is very unfortunate that Bharat Karnad ji is engaging in this kind of activity. The nature of his articles gives me an impression that he is a 'vivek raghuvanshi' for reporting on strategic matters. Its bordering malicious.

Just learned that the test firing of the canisterized Agni-5 that was earlier scheduled for yesterday and postponed virtually at the last hour, has now been cancelled altogether, at least in the present time window. This decision at the highest levels of govt was owing to Washington’s supposed allergy to rising powers displaying their distant strike capabilities. The K-4 SLBM fired from a moored underwater pontoon tube system tested March 8 was, unlike the A-5, not in a ready state of induction. A-5, hermetically sealed in a canister with a dummy warhead, was set to be launched from its mobile platform to its full range, whence the Modi PMO’s hesitation.

This is just like the "unnamed IAF officer" who told Vivek raghuvanshi that DRDOs ARM mijjile is above 100Kg and hence "too heavy".

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 16 Mar 2016 18:00

While the delay in the test is disappointing to us jingos, there are a few ways to look at it

1. Missile is not ready for testing due to technical/weather issues - might be the most straightforward answer
2. Missile is not ready for testing due to operational issues - tracking birds, measurement vessels, satellite configurations etc.
3. Missile ready, but GOI not allowing tests
a) Deep foreign policy implications/behind the scenes bargaining etc.
b) Modi bowing to pressure from outside for valid reasons - e.g threat of other system supplies getting affected etc etc
c) Modi bowing to pressure because he believes in some future gain
d) Modi is stupid/coward

Modi's foreign policy, esp. Pak and US policy has been very questionable IMO, but that does not mean we have to assume the worst case everytime. My humble two paise only.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 16 Mar 2016 18:09

There was no official announcement of the A-V test.

So first someone puts out a speculative date and when nothing happens someone else claims it has been postponed due to US pressure.

Brilliant bits of journalism!

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 16 Mar 2016 18:12

^and add brilliant bits of speculation to initial speculation.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 16 Mar 2016 18:13

This is kite flying. The AgniV with a range of 5000-8000 kms is China-specific. You don't need it for Pak and cannot reach US. Diego garcia is already covered by AgniIII. The US will be more concerned about the K4 which is a SLBM than the AgniV. There must be some other reasons.

srin · Post by **srin** » 16 Mar 2016 18:40

dinesha wrote:A-5 test launch cancelled
Posted on March 16, 2016 by Bharat Karnad
Just learned that the test firing of the canisterized Agni-5 that was earlier scheduled for yesterday and postponed virtually at the last hour, has now been cancelled altogether, at least in the present time window. This decision at the highest levels of govt was owing to Washington’s supposed allergy to rising powers displaying their distant strike capabilities. The K-4 SLBM fired from a moored underwater pontoon tube system tested March 8 was, unlike the A-5, not in a ready state of induction. A-5, hermetically sealed in a canister with a dummy warhead, was set to be launched from its mobile platform to its full range, whence the Modi PMO’s hesitation.

http://bharatkarnad.com/2016/03/16/a-5- ... cancelled/

Atrocious quality of analysis. If the Govt didn't want it, would they have cancelled it at the last hour after all the prep ? Wouldn't it have been easier to not have it scheduled at all - just a phone call from DM to DRDO head would have fixed it ?

Also, for those whining about the tests - do we know all the tests happen ? When K-15 was first publicly shown, it was revealed that it had been tested from 10 times before - none of which made it to the newspapers. There was a DRDO video showing the K-4 launch, but it just wasn't announced. So, when DRDO announces Prithvi or Dhanush or Agni-1 tests, do we really know what is going on ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2016 19:40

Aditya_V wrote:Can we trust Bharat Karnad on this? Iss he related to Girissh Karnad who has axe to grind

yes. Don't shoot the messenger.
Bharat Karnad had done more work in this area than any of us can even dream of.

He is out jingoes any one on this board.

Having read is message we can discuss why it is in the foreign policy thread.

Not here.

Thanks,
ramana

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 16 Mar 2016 19:51

^^+1.. i disagree with many of the things he says and am thoroughly supportive of current GOI but lets dispassionately address what he says.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 16 Mar 2016 19:57

UlanBatori wrote:India to double missile production to 100 per month

So a year's production would be 1200 SAMs of which, say 10% would be needed for testing etc so some 1000 are left in inventory. Means roughly 5 missiles per day leaving the assembly line.
This is good, but.. not nearly enough to get enough operational experience. Example that someone cited long back in article dissing "Golf" Nadkarni's dissing of the LCA, was that the NATO Bloodhound, also a SAM, was tested some 4000 times even b4 induction into NATO operational inventory. Of course that was 1960s-70s and Indians are so much smarter in 2016. But this identifies the key problem that DRDO faces:
no serious production capability in India, and therefore, very sparse operational data on which to base improvements.
Quote from someone hu shall not b named.

Whosoever your source was, events overtook his (earlier) views.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 021610.cms
Before:

Bringing up Bloodhound is not really apples to apples, because a lot depends on how well we structure our tests and what we test.

Tough problem, but I think production efficiency has to be boosted say 10-fold and the costs brought down accordingly. I would say at least some 20K to 50K SAMs should be installed before one diversifies production to bring in smaller numbers of more exotic missiles.

My impression (OK, bring on the missiles) from what I have seen of ppl from these organizations, is that the Defense Production establishments are not serious places. I mean, not serious about getting production rates up, quality up, and costs down. Way too chalta hai.

Ulan, this has nothing to do with BDL and BEL's seriousness but plain and simple order book. There are 8 squadrons on order for IAF and 2 regiments for IAF. One cannot produce what has not been ordered ignoring the resource until and unless the GOI gives the order to do so.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 16 Mar 2016 20:08

Ramana Saar,
In what capacity is Sh.Bharat Karnad talking about the Agni V tests?

If the official channels are silent,a question must be raised as to why is he privy to test related information. And why is BK even talking so openly about the test which is supposed to be classified?

Either he/his sources are spreading FUD or if what he says is true then the source of the leak must be plugged immediately !

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 16 Mar 2016 20:18

@nirav:

If compromises on missile testing happen, these leaks are bound to happen as well. After all, Bharat Karnad was a former NSAB member. While Modi is not personally corrupt, there is no point closing ones eyes to the fact that he is GUBOing to the US on these matters and covering the matter up. Could well be that he too envisions a South Korea like status for India. Whether that is acceptable is for the people to decide.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 16 Mar 2016 20:22

BIG IFs in your post Ramdas ji.

Its not right to create a whole theory around an "IF" which itself is based on shaky grounds and then come to conclusions based on it.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 16 Mar 2016 20:29

When Bharat Karnad and other nationalist voices point this out, one has to take notice. There are other disturbing moves by Modi's govt that point to many higher ups envisioning a SoKo like status. Like the progress on the LSA CISMOA and BECA agreements. If one still wants to bury one's head in the sand like an ostrich, one is entitled to do so.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2016 20:30

As I said before take it up in Foreign Policy thread....

srai · Post by **srai** » 17 Mar 2016 05:06

UlanBatori wrote:India to double missile production to 100 per month

So a year's production would be 1200 SAMs of which, say 10% would be needed for testing etc so some 1000 are left in inventory. Means roughly 5 missiles per day leaving the assembly line. ...

At that rate of production, current orders will be fulfilled within 3 years (probably sooner if accounting for ones already produced in the last few years). [2+6 IAF squadrons plus 2 IA regiments]

HAPPY HOURS: 2,500 missiles, 112 launchers, 28 MPARs & 100 3-D CARs | Massive Akash SAM system orders boost to desi pride, industries | 1st Sqn in June & 2nd in Oct 2012 | DRDO mum on Mk-II

Another 7 squadrons in the works. At 125 missiles/squadron, comes to around 875 missiles.
#MI2Watch: Akash to be BEL’s star at show; more IAF orders likely

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Mar 2016 08:49

Small mango doubt -

Why Akash missiles are not in a sealed tube or something like that and why they are in open. I mean they are exposed to dust and all elements. Is there any reason for that? One more thing what kind of measures are taken to ensure that the dust etc do not enter the missile particularly in the engine side?

jayasimha · Post by **jayasimha** » 17 Mar 2016 08:50

K-4 Missile Test A Roaring Success
http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 329130.ece

BALASORE: Even as the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has not yet made public its recent test of nuclear capable submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) K-4, the elite agency, known for developing some best weapons with minimum failures, has validated a few new technologies pushing the country one step ahead in indigenous technology.

A source on Tuesday told ‘The Express’ that the mission conducted secretly on March 7 from a submerged pontoon (replica of a submarine) in the Bay of Bengal off the Visakhapatnam coast was a ‘roaring’ success. Some critical parameters set by the mission team were successfully met during the test.

The K-4 missile was fired at a depressed trajectory. Starting from successfully clearing the launch tube and breaking the water surface to stage separation and maintaining the ballistic trajectory, the missile achieved all parameters before zeroing in on the pre-designated target with high accuracy. The trial was stupendous and a copy book success,” the source claimed.
As far as submarine launched weapon system is concerned, the success of K-4 missile, in terms of technology, is a significant achievement for the country which has surprised the enemy nations by developing some powerful yet potent missiles with limited budget and period.

Although the missile is yet to get its actual name, it was being developed under a secret project, code named K-4. The name is learnt to have been derived from Missile Man of India and former President APJ Abdul Kalam.

The 10-metre tall two-stage missile having a launch weight of 20 tonne can strike a target 3,500 km away. It is capable of carrying more than 2,000 kgs of warhead, both conventional and nuclear. According to sources, apart from several other new technologies, a top-end rocket technology involved in the weapon system is an innovation and initial boost velocity is a plus in this system.

However, the silence of DRDO over the test has left many defence experts surprised.

An eminent national security expert and professor at New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research (CPR) Bharat Karnad said the logic behind such rationing of publicity escapes him.

“Sure, a failed launch is best kept under wraps. But the success of what is a decisive nuclear warhead delivery system from submerged platform is something that needs to be crowed about a bit, just so everybody knows,” he said in an e-mail reply.

Sources said while the K-4 missile has to undergo two/three more developmental trials before being inducted in the armed forces, its shorter version 750-km range K-15 (renamed as B-05) is ready for induction. Meanwhile, the DRDO is also learnt to have been developing K-5 missile which will have a strike range of more than 5,000 km capable of hitting targets deep inside China.

sum · Post by **sum** » 17 Mar 2016 09:15

^^ 3500 KM range with a 2T warhead would be a beast in terms of range with lower payloads?

Or maybe the MIRVs are supposed to total upto 2 Tons when they come online.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Mar 2016 10:37

Yagnasri wrote:Small mango doubt -

Why Akash missiles are not in a sealed tube or something like that and why they are in open. I mean they are exposed to dust and all elements. Is there any reason for that? One more thing what kind of measures are taken to ensure that the dust etc do not enter the missile particularly in the engine side?

They are ruggedized and tested as such do not need containerization. Dust trials, water trials (under showers)..

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Mar 2016 11:57

Janes has report on hypersonic program of different nations , I could just find partial verison for India , Full Version is for paid customer , Any one having acces to janes can post the full article

http://www.janes360.com/images/assets/8 ... _speed.pdf

INDIA: THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK
India's BrahMos
missile programme commenced in 1998 following an agreement for joint
development with Russia. Under this agreement, the principal partners are Russia's NPO
Mashinostroyeniya and India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
The first varian
t
-
a supersonic, radar
-
guided cruise missile
-
features a two
-
stage design and
utilises solid
-
rocket propulsion in the first stage that accelerates the missile to supersonic speeds,
while the second stage employs a liquid
-
fuelled ramjet that takes the mis
sile to Mach 2.8. In effect
it is an Indian
-
made variant of the Russian Yakhont missile.
While BrahMos has been delivered to India's air force, army and navy, the decision to undertake
development of the hypersonic version of the missile
-
BrahMos
-
II
-
was
not taken until 2009, and
again is a joint venture between the original partners.
BrahMos
-
II (Kulam) is being developed to fly at speeds in excess of Mach 6 and offer increased
precision over BrahMos A, it will have a maximum range of 290 km
-
this is lim
ited by the Missile
Technology Control Regime (MTCR), to which Russia is a signatory and restricts it from
developing missiles with a range of more than 300 km for partner nations. To enable the high
speed, BrahMos
-
II will utilise a scramjet engine and acc
ording to a number of sources Russian
industry is developing a bespoke fuel formula for the engine.
A key design decision was for BrahMos
-
II to maintain the physical parameters of the earlier
variant, therefore enabling the new missile to utilise the launc
hers and other infrastructure already
developed

srai · Post by **srai** » 17 Mar 2016 14:55

Karan M wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:Small mango doubt -

Why Akash missiles are not in a sealed tube or something like that and why they are in open. I mean they are exposed to dust and all elements. Is there any reason for that? One more thing what kind of measures are taken to ensure that the dust etc do not enter the missile particularly in the engine side?
They are ruggedized and tested as such do not need containerization. Dust trials, water trials (under showers)..

Besides most of the time Akash missile would be stored in its transportable canister, which provides protection from elements. Majority of them would probably spend 99% of their shelf lives (10+ years) in those containers.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 17 Mar 2016 17:14

Apparently, Su-30MKI firing Astra at Iron Fist 2016

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Mar 2016 17:16

If it was against an air target, its a big deal.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Mar 2016 17:22

http://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/tenders/vie ... ign=buffer

Integration of SIVA pod with IMR Seeker on Su-30MKI Aircraft for Captive Flight ECIL Configuration

Brahmos program testing indigenous seeker on Siva pod for flight trials (ECIL version). There are two versions. The other one is probably the Data patterns unit.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 Mar 2016 17:31

sum wrote:^^ 3500 KM range with a 2T warhead would be a beast in terms of range with lower payloads?

Or maybe the MIRVs are supposed to total upto 2 Tons when they come online.

K4MkI is in the AgniIII class. So official range is 3500 km. And no MIRVs. The 2 tonne plus warhead may be carrying a boosted fission device of high yield.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 17 Mar 2016 19:39

Karan M wrote:http://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/tenders/vie ... ign=buffer

Integration of SIVA pod with IMR Seeker on Su-30MKI Aircraft for Captive Flight ECIL Configuration
Brahmos program testing indigenous seeker on Siva pod for flight trials (ECIL version). There are two versions. The other one is probably the Data patterns unit.

What's an IMR seeker? Do they mean IIR?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Mar 2016 19:46

Imaging Radar seeker.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Mar 2016 19:47

This was Alpha's proposal.
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aySe1AKKGPM/ ... hMos-2.JPG

There were 3 firms involved IIRC - Alpha, ECIL and Datapatterns.
One has dropped out either Alpha or Data or tied up with ECIL, since two are left.