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Singha wrote:Iraq yes but turkey kind of cold now..jn is new messages nna
look at what the magical fsa is suddenly doing vs the is at azaz/mare etc. it is naive to think you can put a turkey back in the bottle.
the ground game will be different than 79 afg. unlike bakistan, both turkii and oeurope will see repercussions.
only map colors change, all the players remain where they were. idlib has gone nowhere, northern latakia is back growing green eastward. Syrians are busy cutting is into two so have nothing else to throw anywhere. manpads have changed the game. now we await mass mlrs and ballistics.
IIRC the Brophet Mo's main achievement was to stop his gentle buddies from cutting each other's (never mind) off (raping each other's daughters was still considered OK, they were as advanced then as the IS and Erdogan are in the 21st century).
So now v r back full circle, there is an all-out tribal love-fest in progress. Once IS is routed from Palmyra, Raqqa and Mosul, Turkey and KSA and Qatar will keep feeding hordes of Sunnis to go charging in - and the Syrians, Iraqis and Kurdistanis have no option but to keep killing them all. If I were they, I would take no chances, it would be shoot-on-sight at the borders and along the border roads and the deserts.
Mass-produce UAVs and UAV-guided missiles, and just keep using them, almost one per target. Tens of thousands. Millions.
Only a Brophat-2 can stop this: Can The Mahdi be far behind?
OTOH, consider: If thousands of Paki Sunnis are pest-e-sha'eed in Syria and Iraq, isn't it imperative on Sunnis in Karachi and Quetta to take revenge on the Shia Unbelievers in Baluchistan and Northern Territories and POK, hain? And throw in a few thousand Ahmadiyas, Sufis, Swat-ese....
Ksa GCC do not have huge population base. Those who wanted to join Isis have gone and done it. They will eventually all die to govt or kurd bullets.
Unless TSP wants to be cannon fodder there is not much wood left for the fire..they took their best shot and if not for Russia Iran and hezbollah stepping in it was months from working
UlanBatori wrote:
Mass-produce UAVs and UAV-guided missiles, and just keep using them, almost one per target. Tens of thousands. Millions.
+(10^20 + 1)
This is the unfortunately and sadly the only game-theoretic possibility. Kill them faster than they can reproduce, coz they WILL kill you if they get a chance. Kill or be killed, in the words on of one Abu Safyan: "Aslim Taslam".
The other thing is active technology denial to these folks, you have to make sure you are atleast 3 generations ahead in warfighting tech.
Singhaji: I am not talking about Pakis going off to be culled. I am talking about relatives of Pakis culled, turning against the unarmed, vulnerable minority Shia as ATM requires them to do.
And THEN, hopefully... Iran and Gen Dostum see fit to do something about it..
Still not really understanding Russia's partial withdrawal. What do they gain from it? Seems an unnecessary loss of leverage and they've given up the flexibility to instantly apply heavy airstrikes on demand, when needed.
Two main reasons. One economical. Second a difference of opinion about establishment of Kurdistan. Russia will be all for it, while Assad against it. Hence this withdrawal which may slow down SAA advance towards Kurdistan, giving time for the Kurds to consolidate their gains and ensuring Assad dont end up with an advantageous position wrt Kurds. Third could be Syrians not keen about Russians meddling inside Turkey.
The evolution of the Middle East is a complicated story with many dimensions. The first time that the United States demonstrated a direct interest in the region was during the Truman Administration (1945-53). Since the mid 1940s the U.S. has had an ongoing strategic national security interest in maintaining stability and influence in the Middle East. At this point any analyst or observer would aver that we are facing a ‘perfect storm’ that threatens our national security. Decades of tireless yet naïve and unrealistic efforts to use force, diplomacy and ‘build coalitions’ have failed to change the dangerous trajectory in Iraq and Syria. The core of this instability is in the ongoing sectarian conflicts in Iraq and Syria. They have resulted so far in the disbanding of borders and the collapse of those two nation’s central governments. In Syria and Iraq the regimes are de facto failed states and no longer exist. At the same time, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continues to gain momentum and metastasize along crucial routes in the region. ISIS has not been defeated because no current functioning state has articulated the reasons why it is necessary to stop them. In fact ISIS’s birth is the outcome of the collapse of Iraq and Syria. The crisis threatens other countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Emirates (Qatar, UAE, Bahrain), Jordan and Lebanon. Now add to that dangerous conflagration Iran’s potential emergence as a regional nuclear power.
It is vital that we engage in a thoughtful and candid re-evaluation of the basic assumptions that have guided our policies and that have resulted in such grave outcomes. This analysis must not be an internal political dispute but rather a straightforward dialogue among experts and policy makers. We need an informed analysis based on intelligence, political feasibility, and a recognition both of the limits of U.S. power and that we need to write-off the ‘sunk costs’ in our current strategy.
Unfortunately and tragically the Sykes–Picot Agreement of 1916 still serves as the basis for our current policies. The secret agreement between France and the United Kingdom was designed as a deal to divide parts of the weakening Ottoman Empire into areas of post-WWI British and French influence. . I conclude that the time has come for a dramatic paradigm shift in our efforts, vision, policy and diplomacy.Iraq needs to end its existence as a state in name only and be divided into three independent entities. The Sunni, Kurdish and Shi’ite regions should gain independence. Iraq's Shi'ites are the majority population in the area from Baghdad to the eastern border with Iran and share with the Sunnis the southeastern part of the region. This state will undoubtedly ally itself with Iran. Not much can be done at this point to prevent this from happening. The Kurds already have a state de facto - Kurdistan in northern Iraq. Today the Kurdish Region of Iraq has six million self-governing people. We should not be intimidated to internationally recognize Kurdistan even in the face of substantial pressure from Turkey, a US ally, and Iran. The area in Iraq that is predominately Sunni is west of Baghdad as is most of Syria. Syria should be divided in a manner that partition would result in uniting their Sunni populations with those who live in the Iraqi west. What will be left of Syria will be divided in the following manner: a Druze state should be created in the southern hills and an Alawite (Shi'a sect) sect in the central western part of the country’s coast. This will be, in fact, the re-creation of the Alawite State of the 1920s and 1930s. The Alawite stronghold in the northwest is based around Latakia. This is most likely where President Assad will escape to when the defense of Damascus will collapse, which is only a matter of time.
Well - it is we who are confused. They have only two colors on the map: black for official ISIS, and green for the rest - places where the Caliphs can go to have some fun.
Its the woman behind the heavy-set middleaged lady wearing a yellowish jacket. She is dressed in black and carries a black bag (probably with the explosive).
I dont understand why it went off there. She actually moves away from the crowd before it goes off.
SAA has also made some gains near Qatari Castle (Tadmor area) in Palmyra. Hezbollah was part of a night raid on ISIS where they captured the place and also a weapons cache.
The battle against ISIS at Al Quraytayn has seen good gains for SAA+.
In Iraq, ISIS has faced a lot of heat fro Iraqi AF since downing the turboprop aircraft. Many KIA. Many ISIS getting arrested trying to flee as Civilians. The Iraqi army is targeting the town of Hit on the Euphrates next.
Hassan Ridha @sayed_ridha
Mehmet Öztürk was born in 1992 in #Gaziantep and was believed to have links to #IS
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Hassan Ridha
5h5 hours ago
Hassan Ridha @sayed_ridha
DNA test has shown that Istiklal Street suicide bomber was Mehmet Öztürk, police have arrested his father & brother
ISIS hit SAA in main Dier Ez Zor city today with probably its biggest attack till date. Battle started with the usual VBIED and went on for 02 hrs. 30 ISIS KIA. Assault failed.
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
IN FULL
The statement to UK Parliament today by ISIS ex-captive Yezidi Salwa Khalaf Rasho
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
The fact that 9,000 armed peshmerga withdrew *just before* ISIS arrived, w/ no notice, is a scandal. Why isn't everyone obsessed with this?
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
If they were intent on retreating, they could have staged a defensive evacuation. They could have even left behind weapons. But nothing...?
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
Some peshmerga even went so far as shooting Yezidis dead who demanded they stop and defend them, or at least leave them their weapons.
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax 1h1 hour ago
For anyone shocked by this statement/role of peshmerga, here is a young Yezidi girl in a refugee camp confirming it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKIHo-4pNKM …
Have u read the Affidavit submitted by Zaheera Shaikh, the (then) 19-year old survivor of the attack on the Best Bakery in Ahmedabad (or was it in Vadodara) in 2002?
(no I have not, but heard enough about it). It was submitted to the court in English. With Mohterma Shaikh's signature. And for that, the Supreme Court sentenced her to 1 year in prison for perjury.
Zaheera didn't know any English. She could not read what she was signing.
Those who wrote the Affidavit "for" her are apparently above the law in India. Same as those who wrote the affidavit for this former 9-th grade student from Iraq are above the law in the UQ/Oirope.
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
The fact that 9,000 armed peshmerga withdrew *just before* ISIS arrived, w/ no notice, is a scandal. Why isn't everyone obsessed with this?
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
If they were intent on retreating, they could have staged a defensive evacuation. They could have even left behind weapons. But nothing...?
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax Mar 16
Some peshmerga even went so far as shooting Yezidis dead who demanded they stop and defend them, or at least leave them their weapons.
Max J. Joseph @DeadmanMax 1h1 hour ago
For anyone shocked by this statement/role of peshmerga, here is a young Yezidi girl in a refugee camp confirming it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKIHo-4pNKM …
Everyone abandoned Yezidis when IS rolled into villages - be it the local militias (peshmarga) or groups of organized well trained armies or regional/national defense forces (few in number) or 'international' (i.e. western) alliances with star wars satellite constellations and UN commitments.
Some in fact warned Yezidis to hand over weapons while some others joined IS to drive them straight to Yezidi homes.
This is why arming local population to teeth is important. So that while national forces are engaged in war, the local population will take care of local sleeper cells and collaborators of rabid dogs.
The little girl in the video does not know that most of the rabid dogs are well organized and supported by neighboring NATO member Turkey and GCC countries. Such is the cover up of entire war everywhere.
The seeriyan military, unfortunately, may be not any more brave than the rest of akphyrr arab militaries. It may have been reduced to this after attrition with vbieds and defections or may be it was this way from the start. May be media coverage shows it to be worse than it is. But they are now reduced to company/battalion level strengths/coordination. The russians did save their buns. One hopes they will increase strength again when it is needed.
The take away for me is this -- where else are mighty sounding institutions equally gutted? That furriners in the know are well aware of, but obscurity in the name of security hides from local populace that will suffer when the curtains are lifted. Size is no bar for this menace.
Hold on a minute. Yes, the Russians are withdrawing some military personnel and hardware—but by and large, it is a withdrawal in name only. Some tactical aircraft have returned to Russia, but we can’t be sure of current levels, as others are newly arriving. Furthermore, we never had precise figures to begin with. It is estimated that there were between three and six thousand Russian troops in Syria before, and what we know now is that the Russians have kept behind enough troops to support their forces logistically at both Khmeimim airbase and the port of Tartus. Most importantly, however, is that Russia’s deployment of anti-access area denial weaponry—the weapons to prevent the establishment of a humanitarian corridor or no-fly zone—have all remained in place. Russian forces that monitor and dominate the electromagnetic spectrum, a decisive Russian advantage in both Syria and the Donbas in Ukraine, have also remained in place. It appears that the most advanced fighter aircraft, SU-35’s and 30’s have too. Finally, their advisors and artillery, the decisive factors on the ground, are still there watching over the Syrian battlefield prepared for what comes next. Five of them were reportedly killed recently by ISIS near Palmyra.The message is clear: The remaining Russian contingent is not only capable of sustaining the war, but reconstituting its campaign upon presidential order. By maintaining its anti-access area denial capability against the West and Turkey, it ensures there will be no effort to reverse the balance of power on the battlefield or alleviate the humanitarian disaster that Russia and its allies have helped perpetuate. It sends a clear message to Turkey and others—as does their recent arming of Kurds with anti-aircraft weaponry—that Russia will continue to ensure that no one can overturn its self-proclaimed victory or undermine its re-claimed clout within the international system.. Russia’s Syrian intervention, contrary to official arguments, was and is not really about Syria. Putin’s lofty rhetoric before the United Nations General Assembly last September—in which he sought a global coalition to fight terrorism—was more about seizing the limelight than really advancing such a coalition. It was a ruse! Putin is now driving home the point that the fight against ISIS in Syria is Obama’s quagmire to deal with.
ery few believe that the current, fragile ceasefire will last—when it falls apart, Russia will play a central role at the negotiating table. As the biggest world player directly involved in the Syrian conflict, the world now recognizes it must deal with Russia in order to achieve peace in Syria. Russia has assumed de facto responsibility for the ceasefire’s success or failure, therefore its challenge is that it must see its terms through. This is highly unlikely.
Russia’s ulterior motive is to prep the political battlefield for the inevitable collapse of the ceasefire and resumption of civil war.Pulling forces out with media hype and ceremonial pomp and circumstance to honor their returning pilots and the families of the deceased is clearly aimed at the Russian domestic audience. It is right to honor those who serve, of course. However, the Russian withdrawal and domestic focus send a message that when the ceasefire fails it is neither the Russians' fault nor responsibility, but the fault of the Western-backed opposition, the United States, and its allies. There are just too many wildcard groups on the ground that are vying for power and land and who do not answer to Russia or to the West (or their respective allies). Russia’s ulterior motive is to prep the political battlefield for the inevitable collapse of the ceasefire and resumption of civil war. Russia must be able to legitimize any actions they deem necessary after that failure occurs. It must be able to show how the West once again failed and portray itself, meanwhile, as the aggrieved party.
Isis tried to assault deir town because some of the troops have moved out west to capture new perimeter.
Nice judo move but failed
The Deir Ezzor Governorate has had its share of bloody battles in the past; however, the battle on Sunday might arguably boast the highest death toll, as over 100 fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) were reportedly killed during their largest offensive inside the provincial capital this year. ISIS conducted a simultaneous assault on both the northern and southern sectors of Deir Ezzor City on Sunday, launching nearly 10 VBIEDs (vehicle borne improvised explosive device) at the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) defenses in the Al-Harabash and Al-Haweeqa districts – all VBIEDs failed to reach their targets. The ISIS assault on the Harabash School District facility was the first to be repelled by the Syrian Armed Forces after a two hour long battle that ended with the terrorist group retreating to nearby Sakr Island (Haweeja Sakr). According to a military source from the Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard, the Syrian Armed Forces killed just over 30 enemy combatants during ISIS’ failed offensive to capture this district on the western bank of the Euphrates River. Unfortunately, the situation in the Al-Haweeqa District was far more concerning for the Syrian Armed Forces, as ISIS briefly captured most of the Firat Al-Sham Hotel area before destroying the building during their retreat. However, this assault in northern Deir Ezzor proved far more fatal for ISIS; in fact, pictures from the battle’s aftermath displayed a gruesome scene of dead terrorists scattered all over the Firat Al-Sham area. Sources from the Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Brigade estimated that between 70-80 ISIS terrorists were killed during this battle, making this one of the most costly defeats for the terrorist group.
excellent ! couldn't have a better start to a week. So many ugly rats piled together.
meanwhile shengal and sinjar are in Iraq. And Iraqi kurds have always been pro-GCC, pro- Turkey, pro-Israel, pro-nato viz the same guys who back daesh/isis and thus them guarding the hen house was always going to be akin to fox guarding. The syrian kurds are supposed to be more anti-turk than iraqi kurds. But they too haven't covered themselves with glory when they cut a deal with nusra/isis over those guarding the menagh airbase in 2013. Maybe significant component of Iraqi kurds are sunni. But these kurds are not a people to be trusted.
