The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 04:21

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... deir-ezzor

Drive to AL sukhnah has started. 45km out with 1 village and couple oilfields in.between

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 Mar 2016 06:09

from air it looks like a small town in rajasthan with lots of indigo painted dwelling units tightly clustered.

post syrian war when reconstruction begins towns layout should be made as accesible to security forces as possible and as inconvenient to any guerrilas or militia as possible. Widest roads possible and low capacity to defend against incoming forces should be mandatory part of town plan.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 07:07

Truck tires converted to huge landmines
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CepZU5ZWIAEkDhH.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 07:18

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said the recapture was a "good thing".
"That said, we're also mindful, of course, that the best hope for Syria and the Syrian people is not an expansion of [President] Bashar al-Assad's ability to tyrannise the Syrian people," he added

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 Mar 2016 07:32

why doesn't kirby & his bosses apply same standards to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain ?

Let's make deal .. until they stay put, Assad stays. Fair deal.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 09:34

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 7h7 hours ago
The Syrian Marines are back to Latakia to continue the Jisr Al-Shughour offensive. Hezbollah, IRGC, and Iraqis are back in Aleppo

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 7h7 hours ago
For the record: Palmyra's liberation was 100% due to the ceasefire. If rebels attack again, all of our forces in east Homs would disperse

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 09:35

two of known bogeymen are back.

IS have released new pic of ginger beard al shishani and claim he is hale and hearty

moqtada al sadr is back in baghdad (I think he lives in karbala), leading anti-corruption protests, clicking selfies and rousing his faithfuls in sadr city.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 09:37

so looks like tiger forces will continue toward al sukanah and perhaps take it alone with artillery support

some other units of SAA will take quraytyn soon and secure the south flanks.

and then another movement west->east as all gather for a push to deir azzor again.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Mar 2016 09:41

Cost of Major Wars , Quite Mind Boggling figures

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 09:57

ISIS 23mm field artillery - keeping a hawks eye on the takfiri infidels

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 10:07

writeup on how IS came to take palmyra and quraytyn....shades of the early arab raiders, mongol hordes and alaksindr ... "keep going until you meet resistance or outlast your food and horse trains"
http://spioenkop.blogspot.in/2016/03/ta ... orces.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 10:08

beyond Sukhnah there is no defendable place in the 100km of bare desert to Deir.
if they can take Sukhnah quickly, they can complete the last stretch without much opposition and reopen the land route to Deir

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 Mar 2016 10:22

I had a good writeup about this yesterday, lost it somewhere before posting.

The map below shows a broader view of the decisions ahead for the Syrian High Command and the 4+1 Command & Control in Baghdad.

https://twitter.com/PetoLucem/status/714048928061243392

ISIS presence east and SE of Salamiyah is a future liability for counter offensives and risk of broken logistics line, look how close ISIS is from Al Faraqlas on M20 motorway.

Leith of al-masdar reports some advance east of Salamiyah yesterday, it could be connected to reducing ISIS liability in this large area in Hama and Homs which is now dangerously behind Palmyra-Deir offensive line.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... east-hama/

The same for Al Quryatayn, the two most critical cities/villages in that part of the Syrian desert all the way to Iraq under ISIS control are Al Quryatayn and the main cross road of Al Busairi (railroad/roads) on the left side bottom of the map below.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.19 ... 0&z=12&m=b

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 Mar 2016 10:38

Some things never change though,

Syrian Army on high alert after ISIL amasses fighters in Deir Ezzor

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... eir-ezzor/ | Al-Masdar News

look at the number of kids in there.

And then again look at the palmyra isis casualties montage. A lot of kids in there as well.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cepf8bFW8AIhQWN.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 10:48

militant islam has a amazing ability to brainwash people and prepare them for martydom.

but I figure the quality of ISIS infantry in the outlying areas and isolated garrisons in the desert is steadily declining. the more elite units will be loathe to leave their strongholds and be pickets and speed bumps in the desert with no backing.

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 Mar 2016 11:01

apparently al-sukhnah was "liberated" once before on Oct, 2013.

video has some details on the lay of the land, it's dusty in middle of desert.

some 15 dead isis rats lie around. While the people and children of this small town come out with a well practiced "Allah Souriya, bashar wa bas" slogan as soon as they spot television cameras and army troops. Seems to be established ritual in these parts.

it will not be any different this time around.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 11:25

Govts ability to permanently hold liberated territory will depend on how much he trains up the NDF - the iraqis and iranis and hezbollah have their own battles to fight and will not stay forever to stiffen the spine of the NDF.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Mar 2016 11:50

CIA Director visited Moscow asking for Assad to Step Down

Russian lawmaker says CIA director wasted time in Moscow

More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/865694

If the CIA director came to Moscow with the only purpose to discuss the future of the current Syrian president he simply wasted his time," Frants Klintsevich, the first deputy chairman of the defense and security committee of Russia’s Federation Council upper parliament house, told journalists.

He confirmed that Russia’s position on that matter "has not changed and cannot be changed." "Russia keeps on insisting that this issue is to be left aside at the Geneva talks," he stressed, adding that it doesn’t mean that Russia has any special relations with Bashar Assad.

"We will accept any choice of the Syrian people. But this choice should be done by democratic means and without any pressure from outside," the Russian lawmaker said. "Russia considers a key task of the intra-Syrian talks in Geneva to create all necessary conditions for free expression of will by the Syrian people."

The US embassy in Russia told TASS earlier that during his stay in Moscow in early March CIA Director John Brennan insisted on Assad’s stepping down and real political transition in Syria.

More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/865694

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 29 Mar 2016 11:50

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/pakistan-on-the-mediterranean/

Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have used the growing threat to argue that the West must better conform its policies to Turkey’s desires. In the wake of the Brussels attacks, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu chided Europe. “Europe has no partner other than Turkey to provide its regional security,” he declared, adding a subtle threat: “They should see this reality and act accordingly.” Meanwhile President Obama will welcome Erdoğan to Washington this week for a strategy meeting about countering the ISIS.

The reality Davutoğlu deliberately ignores, however, is his own country’s role in allowing ISIS to develop and metastasize. The Turkish government is adept at pulling the wool over Western officials’ eyes. Erdoğan pays lip service in meetings with European and American officials to the importance of both democracy and the Turkish partnership with the West, for example, declaring, “Secularism is the protector of all beliefs and religions.” He speaks differently to his Turkish audience. As mayor of Istanbul, he described himself as “the imam of Istanbul” and ...

More than 30,000 foreign fighters from as many as 100 countries now fight with the Islamic State. The bulk of these soldiers—perhaps 90 percent—crossed into the Islamic State from Turkey. Turkish visa policy contributes to the problem. A direct correlation can be drawn between foreign fighters serving ISIS and those nationalities from which Turkish authorities require no visa or provide waivers: Several thousand more Moroccans and Tunisians, who need no visas to transit Turkey, fight with ISIS in Syria and Iraq than Algerians and Libyans, who do. If Erdoğan simply required visas in advance for those under the age of 40 coming from countries like Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Jordan—or, for that matter, from Russia, the United Kingdom, and Australia—the flood of recruits into the Islamic State would slow to a trickle.

ISIS terrorists regularly traverse the Turkish border, not only for medical care but also for rest and relaxation. Some merchants in Istanbul openly sell ISIS propaganda and promise that proceeds from their sale will benefit the group’s fight in Syria and Iraq. Smugglers peddling contraband oil to fund ISIS rely on Turkey to bring the oil to market, paying off local and perhaps even national officials of the AKP, Turkey’s governing party, along the way.

Turkey has done more than lend passive support to Islamist radicals. In his 13 years in power, Erdoğan has transformed Turkey from a Western-leaning democracy into Pakistan-on-the-Mediterranean. There was, for example, the leak of documents from the Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı (MİT), Turkey’s intelligence service, showing Turkish support of the Nusra Front, an al Qaeda affiliate operating in Syria. And, rather than give medals to the Turkish soldiers who intercepted truckloads of weaponry destined for Syrian radicals, Erdoğan ordered their arrest.

Likewise, when Turkish journalists exposed—with photographic evidence—the transfer of munitions and other supplies from the Turkish border to ISIS, Erdoğan’s response was not to applaud the media but to seize the newspaper and arrest its editors and many of its reporters.

There is also evidence that, as Kurds fighting ISIS in Kobani in 2014 began to turn the tide against the radical group, Erdoğan and Turkish intelligence officials allowed ISIS fighters to pass through Turkey and attack Kobani from across the border, a flank the town’s largely Kurdish residents assumed was secure.

From the beginning, Erdoğan has looked at the Syrian refugee crisis not as a humanitarian tragedy but an arrow in his quiver. Inside Turkey, he has offered Sunni refugees Turkish citizenship if they settle in Turkish provinces currently dominated by the Shi‘ite offshoot Alevi sect. And, whereas the world condemns ISIS “genocide” against the Yezidi, the Yezidi who sheltered in Turkey were then victimized, again, by local AKP-run municipalities who refused to provide services offered to Sunni refugees.

Allowing Turkey to choose which refugees to send to Europe and promising to eliminate visa restrictions for Turks only rewards Erdoğan for his behavior and gives him additional leverage in his dealings with the West. Nor is this the type of policy Erdoğan’s neighbors would support. Earlier this year, King Abdullah II of Jordan told Congress, “The fact that terrorists are going to Europe is part of Turkish policy and Turkey keeps on getting a slap on the hand, but they are let off the hook.” He added that, “radicalization was being manufactured in Turkey.”

Abdullah’s message fell on deaf in ears in Washington, Brussels, Paris, and Berlin. It is Erdoğan who has the initiative as he pursues the Islamicization of Turkey and neo-Ottoman imperialism. He has built a Pakistan on the Mediterranean: an incubator of terror that markets itself as the only available partner of the West, with tragic results.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 11:58

pics of al-quraytyn
https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Al+ ... !1e1?hl=en

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 29 Mar 2016 13:33

habal wrote:apparently al-sukhnah was "liberated" once before on Oct, 2013.

video has some details on the lay of the land, it's dusty in middle of desert.

some 15 dead isis rats lie around. While the people and children of this small town come out with a well practiced "Allah Souriya, bashar wa bas" slogan as soon as they spot television cameras and army troops. Seems to be established ritual in these parts.

...

it will not be any different this time around.

With regards to the people in Syria - Those who have run away as refugees have their own problems. But those who stay have their own challenges. If the Govt. forces take over, will they be permanently there to protect them? ISIS or rebels have constantly traded places with SAA specially on the frontlines. The old people in the Palmyra video are survivors. They know what will keep them alive and get them extra food in these tough times.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 14:21

true. none can blame the civilians for taking the path of greatest safety in such a lawless env with state has lost control of the security situation.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 14:39

belarus front has punched its way to polish order while leningrad and ukraine fronts are lagging

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 14:42

in right bottom note the jordanians using himars mlrs to help tanf border crossing fake beire hall putsch.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Mar 2016 16:33

Interesting idea - that the Palmyra victory was made possible only because of the ceasefire, so that the SAA did not have to be dispersed countering all the other rats.

Talk about chess...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 17:03

Also like Chinese checkers

Given small pop all had to fight ferociously....there can hardly be a coastal family who has not lost a son or relative in this GCC Western incited war

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 18:23

Itar Tass
Ministry will propose to the defense ministries from the countries of the US-led anti-terror coalition in Syria to jointly clear mines in Palmyra recently liberated from Islamic State terrorists, a military and diplomatic source told TASS on Tuesday.
"The Defense Ministry of Russia will soon propose to the US-led coalition to take part in the mine-clearing operation in Palmyra," the source said.
According to the source, such a proposal can be transferred by the Russian Center for the Syrian Ceasefire to its US counterpart in Amman or through Russian representatives in the operational center for the ceasefire of the International Syria Support Group in Geneva.
READ ALSO
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Russia's Hermitage museum to take part in restoration of Syria's Palmyra - museum director
Syrian troops liberate Palmyra
As the source explained, the Russian Defense Ministry hopes that "at least some members, if not the entire coalition, will support the Russian initiative."
Chief of Russia's General Staff Valery Gerasimov said on Monday that Russia was bringing combat engineers with robots and mine-sniffing dogs to Syria. He invited other countries to join Russia's mine-clearing effort.
The Syrian army command reported about the liberation of the ancient town of Palmyra on Sunday. The operation to liberate the town on the UNESCO World Heritage list was conducted with the support of Russian warplanes and special forces. Military advisers from Russia also took part in it. Militants of the Islamic State terrorist organization (outlawed in Russia) seized Palmyra in May 2015.
Gallery 15 photo
Ancient Palmyra after liberation from terrorists

More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/865787

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 29 Mar 2016 18:27

My prediction: 2016 will be the year ISIS is destroyed.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Mar 2016 19:43

Folks,
Another basic question from me. Who exactly are the `opposition groups' in Idlib province? It seems that most opposition groups are either in Idlib or Aleppo. Are these Jabhat al Nusra or other groups? Are there substantial numbers of oppositions in other areas? What are the remaining areas for the SAA & its allies to conquer next?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2016 20:30

Idlib a proportion of the general population is pro-rebellion and hence its a bastion and quila-e-jihad.

JN - main player with the most weapons and organization + many other allies smaller militias
Ahrar al Sham - a clever outfit, powerful, more adaptable than JN, "good taliban" types. they are off the shitlist so under ceasefire with SAA now.
FSA - the name has ceased to have any meaning- some smaller remnant militias claim to be FSA and have been duly logged in the register. most joined the other two or IS.
names and alliances keep shifting on a weekly basis.

entire Idlib province is in green hands along with a small adjacent part of latakia & north hama near jisr al shughour

among other areas in the west
- a ISIS pocket is east Hama (Salamaniyeh)
- in between is the SAA advance to Palmyra
- a ISIS pocket in SW Homs (Quraytyn)
- a ISIS quilla-e-jihad in east aleppo (deir hafr, al bab, mare)
- a growing ISIS pocket along israel border (green changing to black as it was held by Nusra and FSA earlier)
- a big green Nusra + FSA pocket along jordan border, with SAA only having a corridor down the middle to daraa border post

in the east , except for @ tishreen dam and a small SDF advance on Manbij, it must be made clear that ISIS still holds a 100-200km wide strip of land all the way from azaz-jarablous turkey border to Tanf-Qaim jordan-iraq border. nobody has remotely threatened it including the JN in the azaz pocket....all are in stockpiling and wait and watch mode. everyone is waiting for the SAA to do the heavy lifting before moving in for the spoils.

Assad probably has 80% of the syrian population under his ruled areas. but in terms of area, he has < 50% of syria under his rule. he has not even reached the euphrates, let alone the vast areas east of it in hasakah and raqqa provinces now under arab tribes, ISIS and YPG

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Mar 2016 21:24

Schinnas:

Sorry onlee. 2016 is the year that we lost Africa to the ISIS. While everyone has been fixated on Iraq and Syria, the ISIS is merging with Boko Haram and the Somalian pirates and whoever is in Sudan (were the Mali herrows Boko Haram or another bunch?). As a result, the whole of northern and central africa are gone. Nigeria will fall soon, Libya is already gone, Tunisia to follow soon. The resources in central Africa are fabulous: lots of strategic metals and radioactive ones all to be found in plenty.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 29 Mar 2016 21:28

Morocco and Algeria have decent armed forces. They will need to step in and save north africa.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 29 Mar 2016 21:48

UlanBatori wrote:Schinnas:

Sorry onlee. 2016 is the year that we lost Africa to the ISIS. While everyone has been fixated on Iraq and Syria, the ISIS is merging with Boko Haram and the Somalian pirates and whoever is in Sudan (were the Mali herrows Boko Haram or another bunch?). As a result, the whole of northern and central africa are gone. Nigeria will fall soon, Libya is already gone, Tunisia to follow soon. The resources in central Africa are fabulous: lots of strategic metals and radioactive ones all to be found in plenty.

Yak herders are right about Africa but have taken their eyes of Asia. Here lies their true nos. Multitudes. Hordes. Indonesia, Phillipines, Bangladesh and Malaysia have already started feeling the heat. Pakistan is in denial and I am not so sure about home turf.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Mar 2016 00:05

Basically, no state Armed Forces other than Cheen, desh, MAYBE Pakistan depending on which side their forces are, have the depth in sheer numbers to destroy ISIS. And that with maybe 30% and above, losses, and bitter fighting through the metro areas and the farming villages with Syria-like "reconstruction potential".

Then again, Cheen, Russia obviously, and US, theoretically, given good leadership in DupleeCity, can smash ISIS from the air, if there is someone else with the numbers on the ground. Japan may be homegenous and innovative enough to put up a good fight.
Next mutation of ISIS is likely to come with significant air power (UAVs? why not?) That will make the situation far more difficult. Just imagine if they start putting wings on those Toyotas and Dallas Ford pickups.
South & Central America are theoretically solid Catholic, but I wonder how strong the 5th column there is. Surely Carribbean has enough ISIS ground appeal.

Note that ISIS is the first modern-era "I" force that does not waste time on being anti-Israel, and may quite possibly have a lot of covert and overt Israeli support, at least around Golan Heights.

This is the desperate chess that forced Putin to intervene in Syria. Last chance to slow them before they invade Russia.

I think most of us are so dazzled by "ShockNAwe" and Desert Storm and Desert Shield and Shomali Plain performances of USAF and US Armored Division thrusts and cruise-missile spectacles, to recognize the ground truth in that table posted above: None of those wars have really been won, and are barely being kept from turning into total catastrophes. Plus, TSA and DHS has so far (knock on wood) been pretty effective in protecting the mainland CONUS.

So far.

But look at their strategy. Indonesia - and Africa. Imagine ISIS forces sweeping in with 2 billion armed, drug-crazed savages. Read the news about the 200+ Nigerian schoolgirls who were kidnapped - now appearing with soosai-vests and totally drugged and brain-washed.
As usual, the national leaders all seem to be busy enjoying the feeling of having their thumbs up their (never mind). Thank ******* for Putin and Gen. Vodkov.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 30 Mar 2016 00:16

In whose interest is it to *DESTROY* ISIS? As an other-than-moral argument, I mean. What makes it worthwhile in terms of blood, treasure, and blowback for any country to undertake this exercise? Which countries would find it the most worthwhile... and are those the countries that are actually willing to risk said blood and treasure?

Yes, it is in no one's interest that ISIS should be able to effectively marshal, exploit and *monetize* the resources of their Caliphate the way a normal nation-state can. Prospecting, drilling and exporting oil for cash, e.g. That gives them their own independent source of liquid wealth which they can use to expand their efforts far beyond the Caliphate's current borders at will. It's like Bakistan acquiring ICBMs. But is it necessary to destroy the Caliphate in order to stop them achieving this? Or is containment enough?

Seriously. An ISIS Caliphate located on the Mediterranean-facing half of West Asia, and looking Westward in their ambitions for the most part, is a huge problem for whom exactly? Is it a greater problem for us than Bakistan and its various contents currently present? Does it add in some significant way to the problem Bakistan & contents currently present us with? Perhaps it is capable of becoming more of a problem for Bakistan than the extent to which (if at all) it compounds the Bakistan problem for us?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Mar 2016 01:25

Ah! When v say AOA! v may (if still around and not crucified, headless etc) really mean it. Consider a choice between a nuclear conflagration and an ISIS takeover. I think the former sounds lovely in comparison. But will the national forces be even able to press the button on nukes b4 they are taken over? Syria with all its chem weapons and its large force of (old) Mig-21s, Mig-23s, Sukhois etc, was all but wiped out. Will IAF/IN fare better? What if faced with large Gelf/KSA/Indonesian air forces all at once?
So I'll turn the question around: in whose interest is it to **NOT** destroy ISIS? I bet this is what Putin asked too: theoretically, an ISIS takeover of Syria would have threatened US influence in Egypt, and threatened souther Europe long before it threatened Russia. Just like "we" "reason" that ISIS threatens Pakistan more than it threatens us.
Pakis will morph in a moment and become more ISIS than ISIS. Just like the Iraqi neighbors of the Yazidis did.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 30 Mar 2016 01:42

Rudradev wrote:Seriously. An ISIS Caliphate located on the Mediterranean-facing half of West Asia, and looking Westward in their ambitions for the most part, is a huge problem for whom exactly? Is it a greater problem for us than Bakistan and its various contents currently present? Does it add in some significant way to the problem Bakistan & contents currently present us with? Perhaps it is capable of becoming more of a problem for Bakistan than the extent to which (if at all) it compounds the Bakistan problem for us?

Ah...for it has been prophesied that, in the End of Times, the armies of the faithful will fight and plunder Hind and Sind - names that have been used for Pakjab and Sindh... Pakistan is part of the impostor Dajjal system, and every true mo'min can see that - a b@stard child of the British Empire, a meretricious kaneez of AmriKhan, a kowtowing eunuch to the Chinese swineherd, a mercenary to the Saudi firaun. Even the common faithful in Bakistan are still stuck in their quasi-Hindu ways, and are far from chosen. Every true Caliphatist should know this and what is destined.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 30 Mar 2016 02:06

I don't know, Yakmeister. We used to have similar thoughts about the Taliban 20 years ago... at that time a whole country full of the worst AOA-spouting nightmare we could possibly have envisioned, and they were right on top of us, and the Pakis were doing everything to deploy them against us (with some success, in Cashmere and in related terrorist incidents like IC814). But even the influx of these types into Cashmere throughout the mid/late 90s, though it led to much loss of life in terrorist attacks, did not end up with our surrendering an inch of Cashmere (let alone any other part of India). Not even temporarily in the way Assad had to (and still continues to) relinquish control over large parts of Syria.

On the other hand I would argue that Pakistan already IS more ISIS than ISIS. Despite the suit-boot-whiskey Riz Khan RAPE facade, it has always been. Is anything ISIS did in the recent past inherently more terrible than the sheer scale of rapine and butchery that Niazi et al conducted in 1971? And that was BEFORE the great Bhutto-Zia project to properly Islamize Pakistan's Armed Forces. Nothing to morph, the Pakis in spirit and will are already fully there... and the only reason they aren't already doing full-spectrum ISIS-type acts from Dehradun to Thiruvananthapuram right now is because they CAN'T. If they try we will thoroughly, relentlessly pest-e-shaeed them the same way we pest-e-shaeed'ed all the Taliban types whom the Pakis sent against us, and all the Paki uniformed types that ever came at us between October '47 and the present.

If some of the theories that have been discussed on this thread as to the origin of ISIS are correct, the Caliphate has been placed where it is for a reason. Putin correctly surmised what the reason was, and determined (accordingly) that the Caliphate would not be posing a direct problem to Egypt, Israel, GCC states or Turkey anytime soon. In fact its intended targets were specifically Shia-Alawite Syria, Shia-majority Iraq, and Shia Iran for the appetizer; and all the states that the SCO has offered protection to, from Armenia to Kazakhstan, for the second course. Russia and China proper for the main course. Honestly, the Caliphate is nothing but Pakistan redux... created by the same powers, for the same reasons, serving the same geostrategic purposes, using the same Sunni Islamist philosophy. The only difference is that no one was tweeting the pictures of trains full of beheaded, disemboweled, dismembered Hindus and Sikhs arriving in Amritsar (or putting them on YouTube). I remain unconvinced that there is anything here many orders of magnitude more monstrous than things we in India have seen before, and dealt with as they came.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Mar 2016 02:57

Powerful arguments, but I would point out (no offence) that this is the Ranjit Singh rationalization: They've been here, we've seen them, 6 times, 7 times? Let them come again, we will teach then Befitting Lesson.

The trouble is that they learn fast and morph fast like a virus. In your example, 'we' have not won, any more than the American/NATO efforts have won. We floated 700 headless corpses down the Sutlej every year for a decade, but they still come, like to Pathankot and Mumbai. Our soldiers still die. Our villagers still get their cows stolen and their goats buggered by the Pakis.

There has not been any REAL cure, like, say, a glass-topped Islamagood. The best that we have done is .. (never mind, I ain't going to admit that but u can guess).

Your model of the Caliphate's 'raisin dieter' does not include the virus consuming North Africa, yet it is doing that. Not East Africa, and it is almost there. Nor Central Africa, and I believe we are in for a huge surprise there - the sh1ts have probably crucified and beheaded all the gentle gorillas in the central African forests already.

Nor Indonesia. Now I DON'T see why an ISIS plague in Indonesia is a good thing, even if they do go and sit on the shore awaiting the next 9.7 and yell AOA. Do their Masters want the sea-lanes harassed? (Sorry, I just shattered my own argument, Yemen is right there at the choke-point

)

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 30 Mar 2016 05:53

ijrEl has asked its citijens to leave ... turki.
amrika has ORDERED non combatants/families out of ... turki.

Something cooking? Those iskanders are tipped, you think?