The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 09:00

Chinese Uighurs taking over homes left by displaced Syrian citizens.

http://levant.tv/index.php/blog-posts/c ... -citizens/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 09:06

both alligators and havocs are in the air - moved south to quraytyn for this. both types seen in videos posted here.
the aliligator is faster and carries huge boxes of rockets but no cannon(might have MG pods).
the havoc is uglier, has a thicker hide and apart from a massive payload has a BMP style shipunov cannon.

both will pave the way to 72 pigs company.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 04 Apr 2016 09:21

ISIS history of combat and capture has following pattern in success:
a) Primary - Surprise assault with fear inducing large VBIEDs going up all around.
b) Demographics - Initial successes were mostly in pro ISIS population centers where the locals were anti army (Iraq or Syria)
c) Weakened Opposition - Whether against FSA in 2013 (killed a lot of FSA leaders in their sleep one fine night) or SAA in Palmyra, Iraqi army in Mosul, their victories were against either heavily depleted under armed army or large scale defections from army as was the case with Iraqi army.
d) Strong logistics through international covert support - It is established now that all through ISIS had a fantastic logistics going for them in form of support received from Turkey, Israel, Jordan and other Arab and NATO states.

Despite this they have lost at all places where they have found determined opposition, i.e. Kobani, Ramadi, Samarra, Quaryatayn, East Aleppo, Khanasser, Palmyra, etc. To achieve this the opposition primarily neutralised their VBIED and self explosion benefits. Once the opposition refused to get cowed down and did not find a supporting local populace - ISIS became dead meet.

Few critical examples of their failure despite sustained offensives are:
a) Dier Ez Zor and b) Kobani c) Defence of Kuweiris air base

-These three examples are critical since in both these places ISIS had attacked at the peak of their power (specially in terms of support from international partners).
-These places had different defending formations (so it is across armies, terrain, resources and numbers).
-The defending formations were/ are under armed, under manned.
-The local population was Sunni but hostile to ISIS.
-Defenders refused to run and made a stand.

If in case of Kobani one makes a case of US air support, it must be understood that the US air defence started after the Kurds had dug in and had fought back. JoKerry had actually gone on record stating that Kobani would most probably fall at the time US air campaign commenced.

It is clear to me that ISIS have one battle tactics which has not evolved despite losses. Their combat is flawed even in terms of optimal usage of available weapons and manpower. If the initial self explosion, VBIEDs do not win them the battle, they have never succeed.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 09:22

ISIS in woman's disguise caught trying to flee by blending in with civilians by Iraqis

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 09:25

izzat ki nilami ho gaya bhai

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 09:26

my feeling is that Idlib is mostly populated by Uighurs and other Turks. And if that is indeed the case, it is time for China to step up to the fight and remove those forces that could destabilize them in future. AFAIK, they have a small force of specialized forces in Syria who work in those areas. But it may be time for air campaign on Idlib as well. This time led by China.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 09:29

a good army keeps out of civil admin/police work and constantly trains. ISIS in trying to run the admin of their caliphate through their cadre has made clerks, officials, butchers, clerics, spies and police out of what should have been a army and lost all their training cycles . their only training is when they come to fight.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 09:30

yes Idlib is one province where the whole population is kind of jihad-pasand and anti assad. support is split between JN and FSA. JN is the bigger dog.

jisr al shughour retaking will be a test case of how tough it will be. its surely to be defended by 100s of seasoned fighters well armed with the best weaponry.

it is about 20km from the turkiye border so turkish artillery could extend support from the back using cheaper basic shells without using the more expensive base bleed ones.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 09:41

It is an old ISIS+NATO strategy of diverting attention of SAA whenever they were on cusp of major battlefield victory to open a distant front by launching a heavy assault. So if SAA captured Sukhana in 2013, promptly another front was opened in Lattakia or Hama or Damascus which forced SAA to rush over troops to that front.

That idea was tested again in past few days, but this time with Russian's around, it isn't working as effectively. JN tried to attack SAA position in Aleppo at night, but entire column with 8 BMP and 2 T-72 were destroyed along with a couple of mobile signals C&C technicals. The NATO is desperate because it knows that after Sukhanah comes Raqqa and all supply lines to Raqqa are now cut off and there is no way to defend that lot.

this time around the offensive isn't giving breathing space to rebels of all hues.

Two days ago Syrian Army, Hezbollah capture Bala Al-Kadhim in the East Ghouta

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... st-ghouta/

Next stop before Sukhanah is a village of Al-busayri, a crossroads village which hosts some ISIS who filtered out before offensive on Quraytayn

all eyes on al Busayri crossroad village.

https://twitter.com/hamza_780/status/716596185801355264

https://twitter.com/PetoLucem/status/716677726074236928

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=34.16 ... 4&z=12&m=b

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 09:50

The plan, from the CIA-MI6 handlers point of view, was to unleash a propaganda barrage of Russian air force breaking the ceasefire, bombing the poor moderate rebels. Evil, evil Russia.
For that purpose Al Eis hilltop had to be sacrificed, to really drive home that it was a terrorist offensive at first.

Now that the point has been driven that it was a terrorist offensive.
It will be taken down ultra-quick and then some way forwards too.

Earlier today it was reported that a 100 vehicles convoy was sent from Hama Province to southern Aleppo to beef up the forces there for a counter offensive, and as soon as they arrived the counter offensive started, it will be a long night for the turkish backed Al Qaeda terrorists and the US backed moderate terrorists. The counter offensive is in full swing at Al Eis with ground troops and CAS. Hopefully there will be good news by Syrian morning.

https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/ ... 8266338304

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 11:14

Nusra in idlib and aleppo had pulled a fast one by handing over a belt of territory and check posts between itself and SAA to units not on the no-ceasefire list. SAA did not attack these units. Jn quietly rearmed and planned behind this screen and when time came, all these ceasefire rebels deftly changed their posture

Might turn out to be strategic loss if SAA decides to cut the road to aleppo that runs West of el eis.

I think it ends up in famous castello road which is like ring road of sorts near ypg bastion sheikh maqsood that is shelled by fsa daily from west

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 11:56

Photo. Azeri soldiers who raided a Armenian village killed two elders after cutting their ears off

https://mobile.twitter.com/Zinvor/statu ... 68/photo/1

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 12:00

Azeris buy arms from Israel including drones.
They are a shia country sharing borders with Russia and Iran but clearly someone is instigating this

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 13:22

Syria AF claim they killed AL suri it does look like a massive barrel Bomb to me

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheArabSourc ... 61/video/1

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 04 Apr 2016 14:36

GD, the Azeris are ethnic Turks. They speak a Turkish dialect.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 15:12

Frankly all these middle-eastern countries except Iran behave more or less like pakistan. For example heard the azeris claim on al-jazeera that their troops defended bravely against armenian provocation, while I am 10000% sure that the azeris+turks did some sf illegal operation and killed a few helpless people to instigate armenians in first place. Very pakistani and professionaly duplicitous.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Apr 2016 15:29

Hilarious German song about the Turkish sultan,a must watch ck link.
http://indy100.independent.co.uk/articl ... Zyp1ZDLLgZ

Turkish president Erdogan's attempt to censor a German song about him went horribly wrong
Bethan McKernan in news

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not like criticism, and there are several worrying signals his country is becoming increasingly illiberal.

Arbitrary arrests of journalists and political activists are becoming commonplace, as is mass censorship of platforms like Twitter, as are media blackouts. Earlier this month, anti-government newspaper Today's Zaman was forcibly taken over by the state.

Understandably, these moves have drawn sharp rebuke from rights groups and the international community.

Last week, German public broadcaster NDR aired a satirical song mocking Erdogan. 'Erdo-who, Erdo-where, Erdo-gan' plays on the president's thin skin, his government's attitude towards the separatist Kurdish movement, and how Turkey has threatened not to resettle thousands of refugees currently in the EU:

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Apr 2016 16:05

Now that Saudi halal Sunni/Wahabi wimmens are posing freely and taking shameless selfies with notorious yindoo pregnant-wimmen-disemboweler, and that with the blessing of The Sultan Himself,

the Scandinavians and JNU types may have to shift attention to Moderate, Liberal Erdogan? Nah! Just being hopeful.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 16:27

Hezbollah carried out a large-scale assault against the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) in the Ras Ba’albak region of east Lebanon on Monday morning, killing and wounding several members of the aforementioned terrorist group at the village of Al-Zuweitini. In addition to their assault at Al-Zuweitini, Hezbollah launched a powerful assault against the ISIS terrorists in the Ba’albak Highlands, forcing the latter to reinforce the area before being outgunned and overrun by the Lebanese Resistance. ISIS’ large presence in the Ras Ba’albak area is a serious threat to Lebanon’s internal security; this is one of the reasons why Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army have intensified their attacks against the terrorist group and Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group).

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/he ... t-lebanon/ | Al-Masdar News

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 18:18

Ramzan kadyrov is going to Syria to meet Assad

Would be a tactical masterstroke to induct his militias to fight in idlib and Latakia hills.

Iran confirms sending more SF advisors to Syria

Armenia threatens to recognize nagorno katabakh if fighting cobtinues

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 18:20

China also be invited to sort out its Uighur jihadis in idlib and gain prestige and field exp as a world power.

Send a flanker or j10 squadron and lacm armed ships too

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 18:22

Either u are a world power or not. Hiding behind fig leaf of language problem will not do. Man up and move into the chessboard . interpreters can be found among deserting Uighurs who learnt Arabic by now

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 18:33

I don't really know when and if the Chinese are going to show some spunk. It seems the mandarin speaking section of china is more sdre than sdre themselves. They are only doing lungi shiver by contemplating possibilities of direct intervention now.

Everything with them is top secret hush-hush and across the ocean donald trump is bellowing how China is taking away jobs and making swthrt slimy deals on a daily basis without fear or concern of chinese blowback.

nobody in USA cares what China thinks. The worry and concern on how people think is solely a Chinese preoccupation. IMHO if it continues in same vain, China is destined to be smaller level player than even India.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Apr 2016 18:39

1)Russian Ka-52 “Alligator” helicopters arrive in Syria - a new batch of the new Ka-52 in Syria, Russia continues testing all their new weapons in Syria. There are videos of Ka-52 attacking Al Qaryatayn for the first time in this conflict.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ru ... ive-syria/ | Al-Masdar News

2) Iran announced today that its elite 65th Airborne Brigade of the Special Forces (NOHED Brigade) has been deployed to Syria as part of a new military initiative to train and advise the Syrian Armed Forces.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ir ... loy-syria/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Apr 2016 18:43

Now video emerges of Ka-52 in Syria

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 19:16

Completely agree habal..China had 3x the deployable combat forces of India and 3x the economy but has the yindu virus when it comes to defining a global role.

Squatting on rocks in South China Sea is not enough

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 19:55

https://mobile.twitter.com/Souria4Syria ... 16/photo/1

Isis withdrawing South to defend core area

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2016 19:58

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Apr 2016 21:40

Singha saab thanks for maps & pictorial updates,

I always thought Raqqa is IS's nerve centre if yes why are their fighters fleeing towards South?
How come Raqqa has not fallen, the green pasteur surrounded by Kurd fighters, is their some other deal?

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 04 Apr 2016 22:47

Singha Ji, IndraD ji, an insightful tweet on the issue of ISIS withdrawal from Northern Aleppo

The 'Nimr' Tiger ‏@Souria4Syrians now37 seconds ago
MUST READ: Syrian Kurdish Journalist Mohammed Hassan spills the beans on the situation in #Aleppo. #ISIS, #SDF

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 04 Apr 2016 23:15

The Nagarno Karabakh fight continues for the third day.

At least 36 men dead, mostly ethnic Armenians. And Armenians are threatening to declare independence of the region if the shelling continues. The Azeris are supported by Turkish Sultan Erdogan 'to the end'.

The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has vowed to back traditional ally Azerbaijan – a secular Muslim Turkic nation – “to the end”. “We pray our Azerbaijani brothers will prevail in these clashes with the least casualties,” he said on Sunday.

Meanwhile sharing some context about the conflict.

Although Nagorno-Karabakh is a small territory – it is home to about 150,000 people – it has long been a flashpoint for power rivalry and ethnic and religious tensions.

Following the Bolshevik revolution in Russia towards the end of the first world war, Moscow’s new rulers established the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region, with an ethnic Armenian majority, within the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan.

When the Soviet empire began to implode in the late 1980s, the mostly Christian Armenians fought to break the grip of the mostly Muslim Turkic Azeris. Up to 30,000 people are thought to have died before the 1994 truce.

Looks like the Turks are trying to drive a wedge between Shias and Russians using the Turkish origin population of Azerbaijan. The Russians need to take quick action here to prevent the war from spreading. May be a low fly past of the Russian fighter bombers will bring the Azeris back to their senses.

A brief but good detail of the current scenario.

“In the event of continued Armenian provocations, we will launch a full-scale operation along the entire frontline, using all kinds of weapons,” Azerbaijan’s defence ministry spokesman Vagif Dargahly told journalists on Monday. He said the separatists had fired on Azeri positions and frontline villages with large-calibre mortar and grenade launchers.

The Armenian-backed separatist authorities in Karabakh – internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan – also said fighting was continuing and that Azeri troops had “intensified shelling of the Karabakh army positions on Monday morning, using 152mm mortars, rocket-propelled artillery and tanks”.

Russia and the west have called for a ceasefire, with Vladimir Putin, a key power broker, pushing for an immediate end to the fighting, and Moscow’s diplomats and military pressuring both sides. “We are continuing contacts with Baku and Yerevan so that they hear the signals from Moscow, Washington and Paris,” the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said.

France, a co-president of the Minsk Group of negotiators in the conflict, said the group would meet on Tuesday in Vienna to discuss the violence.

Analysis Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is a reminder of Europe's instability
Sudden eruption of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh region has come as a nasty shock and must be addressed
Read more
Sporadic clashes happen regularly along the frontline but the latest outbreak represents a serious escalation and analysts warned it could quickly spiral.

“The Karabakh conflict has serious geopolitical implications,” Sergi Kapanadze, the professor of international relations at the Tbilisi State University in Georgia, told AFP, and “threatens the stability of the strategic Caucasus region which is a transit route of Caspian oil and gas to European markets that bypasses Russia.”

Russia and Turkey – the major regional powers which are at loggerheads following Ankara’s downing of a Russian war plane over the Syrian border in November – have found themselves on opposing sides of the conflict.

The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has vowed to back traditional ally Azerbaijan – a secular Muslim Turkic nation – “to the end”. “We pray our Azerbaijani brothers will prevail in these clashes with the least casualties,” he said on Sunday. Russia maintains a military base and ties with Armenia.

Iran on Monday urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to show restraint and offered its help to halt the fighting.

Both sides claimed to have made territorial gains since the fighting flared. Artsrun Hovhannisyan, the spokesman for the Armenian defence ministry, said Karabakh forces had advanced overnight, “liberating new positions”. Azerbaijan claimed to have snatched several strategic positions inside the territory.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/a ... -third-day

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Apr 2016 23:22

habal wrote:Frankly all these middle-eastern countries except Iran behave more or less like pakistan. For example heard the azeris claim on al-jazeera that their troops defended bravely against armenian provocation, while I am 10000% sure that the azeris+turks did some sf illegal operation and killed a few helpless people to instigate armenians in first place. Very pakistani and professionaly duplicitous.

It's called "winning"; a game the civilized Russians play very well.

The Russians know when to be civilized, and when to be barbarians.

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 04 Apr 2016 23:34

^^
More about the Turkish-Arab actions in the Azeri-Armenian conflict

http://rbth.com/international/troika/20 ... cow_581805

Following the latest outbreak of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian defense and foreign affairs ministers telephoned their counterparts in Armenia and Azerbaijan to urge the cessation of hostilities. Russian President Vladimir Putin appealed to both conflicting parties to be reasonable and insisted on an “immediate ceasefire.”

In contrast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan phoned only his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, to express his condolences over the death of Azerbaijani soldiers, thus taking sides, which was foreseeable.

Adding fuel to the fire
Trying to identify the main culprit in the re-eruption of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, that is, who fired the first shot, could well be futile. However, the opinion of Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe should be duly noted.

“It is more likely that one of the two parties to the conflict – and more likely the Azerbaijani side, which has a stronger interest in the resumption of hostilities – is trying to alter the situation in its favor with a limited military campaign,” De Waal wrote in a blog posting.

“The dangerous aspect to this is that, once begun, any military operations in this conflict zone can easily escalate and get out of control,” he stressed.

A serious danger may lie in the provisions of the 2011 Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Support between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The parties pledged to render support to each other using “all possible means” in the event of an attack or aggression against one of them. Getting involved in yet another conflict would buy additional time for President Erdogan as it allows him to further stoke ultra-nationalist feeling at home.

No less worrisome is that the conflict is acquiring religious connotations. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), has condemned “the attack by Armenian forces on the borders of occupied Azerbaijani territories” and Yerevan's “disrespect of the (unilateral) ceasefire” announced by Baku. Azerbaijan is a member of the OIC, and is receiving support specifically as an Islamic nation.

Azerbaijan has a far stronger military compared to Armenia, with $3.6 billion annual defence budget against $500 million defence budget for Armenia. In fact, The Azeri oil funded defence budget itself is higher than the entire Armenian budget. Azeris have armed themselves with Russian weapons - modern tanks, combat helicopters, air-defence systems. This will create some confusion in the Russian minds about going after one of their local clients.

However, we have seen the Russians right? they won't back off if their principal ally in the Caucasus i.e. Armenia is threatened. Lets see how much fishing Erdogan can do in the troubled waters.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 05 Apr 2016 05:32

OTOH, there is another way to look at this. Note about the Turkey-Azeri Mutual Defense treaty etc. So if Azeris get into a bissing contest, that catches Erdogan by his VIPs and gets them into a twist, hain? Suddenly he is in a 3-front war: Syria- Latakia with YPG, other Kurdistan pleasantries, and then Azeris with well-armed, Russian-backed Armenia bissed off. Its a whole lot easier for the Su-24s and Backfires to hit Turkish forces in Azerbaijan than inside Turkey or Syria. The Black Sea fleet can just come over and shower goodies on both Azerbaijan and Turkey, and there's not a whole lot that either can do about it.

Can Erdogan really fight a 3-front war, esp with vacuum bursts going on in Ankara every couple of days? And Kurds in an existential battle against him? Why would be go and start this now? It's like inviting the Bear to claw his backside. And if Turkey goes and meddles in an Azeri-Armenia lovefest, NATO is **NOT** going to get drawn into that if they have any idea what is good for them. They will discover various clauses getting them out of any commitment.

So I think there are some chess moves behind this latest flare-up, and they are not necessarily by Erdogan or NATO.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Apr 2016 06:16

Azeris behead a yezidi Armenian soldier

Graphic.http://ezidipress.com/en/karabakh

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Apr 2016 06:17

Another attack on deir azor in progress using vbied and mustard gas this time

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Apr 2016 06:22

Turkey pasand division99 with the head of a Isis man in North aleppo

Graphic https://mobile.twitter.com/bm27_uragan/ ... 44/photo/1

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Apr 2016 06:25

The is remnants of Palmyra and quraytyn have reached deir azor

Details of the battle
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/is ... r-airbase/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Apr 2016 07:01

Jordan threatens Russia
Middle East Eye ‏@MiddleEastEye
King Abdullah of Jordan tells Russia: "One bullet across border, all gloves are off" http://ow.ly/ZXD5p

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Apr 2016 07:03

that's month old news.
shorty is high on captagon.