India should Create Nuclear Commerce Group (NCG)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2016 19:40

- Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is Cold War relic and traces its origins to the London Group setup after India's 1974 Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE) which is permitted under Article 6 of the NPT.
-NSG is a suppliers group in other words a group of suppliers who have the knowhow and wherewithal to supply nuclear energy components to those who don't have. Its a control mechanism.
-Nearly 30 years after Cold war ended in 1988, NSG has now been hijacked by China spurred by its great power ambitions to deny nuclear commerce by India.
-NSG rules of consensus allow proliferators to act like highly innocent players. China which has transferred nuke weapons to Pakistan and further on is using its consensus power to keep out India from NSG.
- All other NSG members have agreed to allow India into NSG but this is no use.

India under NaMo should form Nuclear Commerce Group (NCG) which should consist of those countries interested and with capabilities for peaceful nuclear uses like power and radio isotopes.
The group should comprise of the main nuclear equipment supplier, nuclear fuel countries. And should have the power to deny commerce for countries that proliferate weapons. The rules should be by majority to prevent abuse of consensus in future.

Please propose a list of countries that fit the above criteria.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 21 Jun 2016 20:47

Nuclear Commerce Group (NCG) - member countries purpose is to enable Nuclear Energy in the member countries and also promote safety and responsibility of the civilian nuclear technology.
This group may also be called Nuclear Energy Group

Most of the members of the NSG can also be member of Nuclear Commerce Group (NCG)
The main purpose is the promote legal trade in nuclear technology and promote laws to enable international standards in civilian nuclear commerce.

Preference should be given to democratic countries and countries which promote rule of law

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Jun 2016 21:00

I was thinking along the same lines., NCG has a nice ring to it. This also ties in with Make In India scheme and it will not country specific but proliferation specific. Of course the "green lobby" undermining India will go 'bonkers' and it will require somebody like Trump at the helm. If it is billary., than bye-bye to this idea.

More thoughts need to be spent on this.

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Jun 2016 21:09

Here is a list of countries:

1. Burma
2. Sri Lanka
3. Vietnam
4. Namibia
5. Angola
6. Gabon
7. France
8. Japan
9. Russia
10. Chile
11. Bolivia
12. US
13. Ethiopia
14. Tanzania
15. Morocco
16. Spain

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Jun 2016 21:11

Each country in the above has a thought behind it. For example., Gabon has rich uranium resources. While France, Japan and US bring technology. Russians bring alternate designs. India has Thorium. Rest like Burma, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam have resources and can partake in commercial designs as consumers.

Again, NCG is not country specific. It is proliferation specific. Any country with a history of proliferation cannot be part of the NCG.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2016 02:04

disha, Tweet a link to this thread and ask people to join in the discussion.

Thanks,
ramana

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Jun 2016 02:35

Maybe state in the bylaw that China is barred permanently.

More seriously, tweet to PMO.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Jun 2016 04:21

Why the "N" which will needlessly rile some? Just call it Global Energy Commerce Cooperative GECC. Include all sorts of energy commerce.

Indian coal vs. South Korean/ Japanese nuclear tech for starters.

disha · Post by **disha** » 22 Jun 2016 08:20

Ramana will do later (or any BRFite' can do the honors as well)

Giani Batori'ji - How about Pacific-Indo-Atlantic Energy Cooperative? or PIA-Energy-Cooperative. Though Global Energy Commerce Cooperative sounds more benign and more peaceful and is tolerant and very inclusive of all kinds of energy commerce only.

Modi'ji already started Solar Alliance., so NCG or GECC or PIA-EC can be modelled on it.

Note all NSG members to NOT get automatically into NCG. For example all the lithuanian countries including Norway have not proved their proliferation credentials. They actually cheered proliferation by China to Bakistan & N. Korea - jeapordizing world security. So they need to prove their non-proliferation creds.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Jun 2016 15:24

Any outfit that uses "non-proliferation" as a credential, is doomed to at least contempt by any thinking person. How can the US for instance be considered a Non-Proliferator of nuclear weapons technology? How did Poodlestan get nukes? France (OK, maybe Marie Curie taught them)? Israel? South Korea (yes they have them). China, and hence Pakistan? Also, US has PLACED nuclear weapons in bases all over the world.

So the whole "Non-Prol" is like instituting a Virginity Criterion for a Special Club inside a LaHore. I know ppl here are mad about the NSG, the Nukes to Pakistan Treaty and the China Tests Bums in Tibet treaty, so am I. But why let that cloud useful planning?

Meanwhile, India's 'problem' is that Indian nuke tech is advanced enough to build a few reactors incl the Fast Breeder and few bombs, but apparently not sophisticated enough for (what, I do not know). So the GOI or Baboon therein, think major gains can be made by paying huge amounts of taxpayer money (and getting a slight "offset") for "technology".

Note that India is a part of ITER, the nuclear fusion R&D gang and boondoggle. How does that work? No access to fusion tech?

IOW, what exactly comes with membership of NSG? Shiny instruments? Each such instrument is the product of 1 or more PhD theses in the 'Bhesht' incl. Japan. Mostly Japan, in fact, AFAIK.

IMO, the real difficulty in India is that tech development is not organized, there is no driving focus. The university researchers are mostly unproductive, and the govt research outfits, well, whom do they recruit, and how can they retain them, and then how much sustained funding do they get? Scraping up all available money and pouring it into buying overpriced instruments is not IMO a useful exercise except for Baboon's bank accounts.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2016 19:56

Remember the famous Chidambaram Venn diagram. All proliferation comes from US.

I did ask what does NSG provide that India doesn't have with the NSG waiver and no replies came.

Its like some fantasy of the MEA babus to get included in the NSG club which was formed to keep India out in the first place. Sort of Breach Candy club in Mumbai.
All it does is gloating rights.

Its US that put all those clauses in NSG that China rightfully points out and is using to its advantage.
US had put those clauses for its advantage and gave veto rights to all and sundry to claim they are the obstructing. And they were the ones chuckling at sucker Indians.

Hidden mace and iron hand in velvet glove strategy.
it has backfired now.

I submit China is keeping India out of NSG to spite the US.

At height of NPT brouhaha , China supplied nuclear fuel to US supplied Tarapur power plant in mid 1990s.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 22 Jun 2016 20:18

ramana wrote:Remember the famous Chidambaram Venn diagram. All proliferation comes from US.

I did ask what does NSG provide that India doesn't have with the NSG waiver and no replies came.

As per Amb Parthasarathy yesterday in an event he said India will get NSG membership eventually after some time if not earlier. But he said NSG is not required for India to trade. India has internal demand and FBR need to be setup and long term demand that India will not export anything in the near future.

Its US that put all those clauses in NSG that China rightfully points out and is using to its advantage.

NSG was another clause to get China into the NPT club and close economic relation with US in the last 30 years. China got into the bed only when India was excluded from the bed.

I submit China is keeping India out of NSG to spite the US.

China was sure that its quest to be number one in Asia would be unchallenged and it will force other major powers out of Asia and be able to dictate the terms in Asia. With China achieving a large economic status it wanted to control the East Asia zone, work with all the rogue nations NoKo and Pak and dominate SCS then enter into Indian Ocean. It wanted total dominance in political, economic and military area.

US wanted its economic relationship with China undisturbed and long term. It has not bargained for south China seas and aggressive PRC govt relations in Asia. China is able to increase its influence in Indian subcontinent and increase proliferation. This could be done only with US winking away for too long.

This competition in NSG is between US and PRC China

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 22 Jun 2016 20:41

That is what I proposed few moons ago. This is the only way to show China her place.

disha · Post by **disha** » 22 Jun 2016 22:45

Looks like CPC is stupid enough to fall for 'dominance' game and taken a panga with US. In the process CPC ends up being a nanga and US ends up seeing the Chinese 'games'

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2016 23:00

disha wrote:Looks like CPC is stupid enough to fall for 'dominance' game and taken a panga with US. In the process CPC ends up being a nanga and US ends up seeing the Chinese 'games'

The problem is US is too close to China since 1850s. So we don't know how much is real and how much is shadow boxing to fool others.

Did you know while other Europeans had a colonial policy US came up with Open Door policy for China which literally means everyone is free to exploit China. And this was in 1860s. So US saw China as their colony since those times.

In 1948, Gen Marshall went to China to assess the situation between KMT and Maoists and advised to drop support for KMT.
This ensured Mao won and consolidated Red China. And took over even Tibet which was not part of China.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Jun 2016 00:18

So that summarizes the problem. At this point I don't think India has a problem with FUEL supplies. Only technology. IOW, the 'right' to buy utterly overpriced gadgets. NaMo should come down with a big danda of Make In India on nuclear technology, and form a War Phooting Counjil to break out of that. List the processes that are too imprecise because of lack of instrumentation. List the needed instrumentation. List the needed processes required to build the instrumentation. Breakt it down to the lowest level needed to get under the ITAR type fences, get the stuff, build up. As someone said, money is not the problem any more in India. It's just the smell of big baksheesh available for **NOT** doing any real thinking and hands-on work inside India.

AFAIK, no one just goes out and buys **Restricted*** stuff to build nuclear technology. OK, a few things are strategic minerals, but those can be obtained from the above countries at least in ore form. The value is in actually learning to build gizmos. The gizmos may have hardened electronics - figure out how to build those. This is one last opportunity to show the finger at these technology-deniers - I hope India takes it.

.. and make sure to help Vietnam to develop nuclear reactors. Mongolia too.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Jun 2016 01:54

Mind you, I am not dissing this great idea. Just thinking through what would be most effective. Shutting out someone powerful and forming an Alternative Association is a standard reaction when one gets mad at being shut out unfairly. But is it productive? Could something much better be achieved with a small tweak?

Currently, the Whirled Odor created by the NSG is

U DON'T supply new clear technology without Our Approval == You OK, but we still won't admit Indians or dogs!
U supply new clear technology without Our Approval == You BAD!

And GOI goes whimpering about how GOOD a dog India has been, pls pls let us in onlee, we want to sit at long glossy table with the Perrier bottles. Pathetic.

India should just form the grand Cooperative for Energy and help conduct the commerce needed for that, while not explicitly ****ADMITTING**** violating the NSG's 'rules'. Which is why I say that India should develop the detailed bottom level list of items that will slide under any fence. For instance, one may ban silicon wafers above 99% purity, but one cannot ban silicon period.
Similarly, one can ban centrifuges capable of more than ** hajaar Gs, and one may ban some type of steel or titanium usually used to build those, but one cannot ban an Indian university from developing a new Samuel Matthai's Kodamkulam (no relation to Koodankulam) Coconut Fibre Centrifuge Tenshun Element onlee. For this, the Department of whatever should assign a project to 3 university labs and a few small companies, to team up and come up with said technology to meet some secret specs, payments made as milestones are met, DARPA ishtyle.

The NSG may ghash its teeth, but that's OK. Diddly-squat they can go about it. Render them IRRELEVANT.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Jun 2016 01:57

In fact NaMo should form a lo-profile ministry/department simply called T.U.
Surely they can find veterans from BARC and DRDO from the 1970s and 80s who remember the abuse at the time of EnnPeeTee and CeeTeeBeeTee. I nominate Smt. Arundhati Ghose as the first Minister or the Chairperson of this organization.

Teesri Ungli

disha · Post by **disha** » 23 Jun 2016 11:04

^^ Will not that be being held hostage to the past? We can break free and of course we can create such TU orgs to needle others and put them in place. But it has to be calibrated carefully.

NCG has a singular purpose., non-proliferation and peaceful usage of nuclear technology.

Australia is not in the list, since Australia allowed UK to detonate its nuclear device on its soil. And then started being all preachy. Anyway other than Uranium Australia has nothing else. Now US/UK/France were World War allies and hence to protect 'democracy' from 'stalinism' they created a bulwark in W. Europe. Atleast that fig leaf is passable. What is the fig leaf for China vis-a-vis bakis vis-a-vis noko? None.

Ramana saar, China sees itself as the other pole in the world affairs and does not want to be second fiddle to US (and of course does not see itself as a colony of US, though US may see it that way). All Chinese shenanigans are trying to break out of that mold - to assert a 'independent foreign policy'. But Chinese foreign policy is a disaster. I can say that the mandarins at China are dim-witted. With the way Venezuela and Africa is being handled. With the way it is trying to assert in S. China sea and the way it is trying to prop up bakis in NSG.

If US does not gain a control over China., China will see itself as a new big dog in the town. Now does US want to let China strut around as a big dog or muzzle it appropriately? That is the key question.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Jun 2016 18:25

India should group Pakistan and North Korea in the same group wrt NSG membership. "Red-chinese-propped proliferators" (RCPP). Hope to see some GOI spokesbaboo use this terminological exactitude soom.

disha · Post by **disha** » 23 Jun 2016 18:50

^^ +72 to that!

Problem is that Indians are very much beholden to anything non-Indian!

In mexico, I have seen Indians going ga-ga over Mexican mangoes and sugarcane! In another instance, an Indian attributed Buddhism to China!! Given such a situation, it will be difficult to find GOI spokesperson whose thought process is congruent to what we think on this forum., and come up with something like 'Red Chinese Propped Proliferators' or 'Axis of evil proliferators' and actually put it out. As a nation we are not there yet. Maybe an entire generation has to fight and win and then realize what they are protecting before they go to that stage.

disha · Post by **disha** » 24 Jun 2016 00:09

I am doing my part on twitter., but looks like only ramana'ji, prahaar'ji and me are doing the part!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Jun 2016 01:33

Ur message needs the sheer simplicity, elegance and punch of

****************T.U.************

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Jun 2016 13:25

Dhruva Jaishankar ‏@d_jaishankar 15h15 hours ago

I always suspected there was a Family Guy connection to A.Q. Khan. via @clary_co

7 retweets 24 likes

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Jun 2016 15:12

I am in favour of undermining all the so called power groups that don't have India as a permanent member.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2016 17:16

NCG is not possible without the very active cooperation of Canada, Germany, France, Japan, the UK, and the US. Russia, though might have been quite handy, is impossible in the current situation of geopolitics and its dependence on China.

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Jun 2016 17:32

start with the african countries first, if we have the pull then a few heavyweights just to add more credence to it. Japan ?

Rest will follow as China keeps blundering it's way to the top.

Else it is an opportunity to bleed China in Africa, they will have to give more bribes to African dictators. Let them pay. We can always enjoy China paying up. Along the way if Trump or somebody comes up, then China will be put in the squeeze.

Modi can take credit for actually 'taking initiative' in foreign policy by forming an Indian-centric organisation.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 24 Jun 2016 23:11

habal wrote:start with the african countries first, if we have the pull then a few heavyweights just to add more credence to it. Japan ? Rest will follow as China keeps blundering it's way to the top. Else it is an opportunity to bleed China in Africa, they will have to give more bribes to African dictators. Let them pay. We can always enjoy China paying up. Along the way if Trump or somebody comes up, then China will be put in the squeeze. Modi can take credit for actually 'taking initiative' in foreign policy by forming an Indian-centric organisation.

African states have 'Pelindaba Treaty.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 25 Jun 2016 08:43

A hypothetical NCG is a non-starter and a waste of precious time, since none of the above candidate countries will want to risk losing the "rule-making" seat at the high table of the NSG.

The better strategy is to make full use of the NSG waiver for energy independence from the middle west, build up the thorium program, strongly push the Baloch independence movement, and impoverish the Pawkee reservation (by sucking its economic opportunities away, damming its rivers, etc).

disha · Post by **disha** » 25 Jun 2016 09:02

^^ What is Pelindaba Treaty?

Screambowl · Post by **Screambowl** » 25 Jun 2016 09:28

If UNSC membership is not granted would India also create some other group like WNSC (World Nations Security Council) ?

The idea of NCG is very impressive and innovative. But would it solve the purpose?

A small flashback on NSG. Why NSG was formed? NSG was formed against Indian Nuclear Tests in 74. Later France was included. This group control the nuclear material and technology around the world.

If India becomes NSG member

1)If India has NSG membership, it can keep watch over Chinese nuclear proliferation with Puk and can control the supply of nuclear material and tech. to Puk officially.
2)India will gain access to material and tech import for thorium research. This will boost India's energy production. Thus being the most eligible to extend P5 to P6, as India is already a member of MTCR.
3) Becomes eligible to join Wassenaar Arrangement Though the China is not a listed member of Wassernaar Arrangement but has listed arms and tech control as per WA. ( That's a different case that it's romance with Puk defies all regulations)

If India creates it's own group NCG, It would not have exact level of influence and watch over tech export to hostile nations. The only advantage would be import of material.

India has gained membership in MTCR and I am pretty sure it will get into NSG within a year or two.

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Jun 2016 09:30

what if USA is part of NCG ? would it solve this rhona dhona ?

Screambowl · Post by **Screambowl** » 25 Jun 2016 09:33

habal wrote:what if USA is part of NCG ? would it solve this rhona dhona ?

Doesn't require to be. India can get whatever if Chinese fail to understand that world runs with Mutual understanding. It will become like another Zangger Committee. Finally Chinese have armed NoKo with N tip.

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Jun 2016 09:36

NCG can work around pelindaba treaty by working inside loopholes, only point being any future amendments to pelindaba treaty should not be ratified by NCG member states. In any case, these are not insurmountable issues.

kit · Post by **kit** » 25 Jun 2016 18:22

Why not ask China to put up a few megawatt reactors in India ..better still give them the sites demarcated for the US

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 25 Jun 2016 21:26

UlanBatori wrote:Meanwhile, India's 'problem' is that Indian nuke tech is advanced enough to build a few reactors incl the Fast Breeder and few bombs, but apparently not sophisticated enough for (what, I do not know). So the GOI or Baboon therein, think major gains can be made by paying huge amounts of taxpayer money (and getting a slight "offset") for "technology".

They won't sell us Uranium unless we don't buy reactors from them as well!! That seems to be the drive here. And They won't sell us reactors until NSG approved it (which happened 7 years ago). It all boils down to salesmanship of west.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 25 Jun 2016 22:37

kit wrote:Why not ask China to put up a few megawatt reactors in India ..better still give them the sites demarcated for the US

This is a good idea. I like it.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 25 Jun 2016 22:55

Shastri wrote:If UNSC membership is not granted would India also create some other group like WNSC (World Nations Security Council) ?

The idea of NCG is very impressive and innovative. But would it solve the purpose?

There are problems which are bigger than what NSG can solve for India. NCG will solve those problems and is a way to enter the international global world with Indian and Asian vision on it. India will try to be in all existing global regimes by following the norms and procedure. Wherever it has not been able to enter the global order India will create its own global Indian centric vision and leadership.

UlanBatori wrote:Meanwhile, India's 'problem' is that Indian nuke tech is advanced enough to build a few reactors incl the Fast Breeder and few bombs, but apparently not sophisticated enough for (what, I do not know). So the GOI or Baboon therein, think major gains can be made by paying huge amounts of taxpayer money (and getting a slight "offset") for "technology".

India needs to invest in instrumentation as mentioned in your posts. India need to be able to do commerce in all aspects of Nuclear industry.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Oct 2019 01:09

Time to revive this thread....

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Oct 2019 06:49

I hear that the trend nowadays is towards quasi-portable, pre-fab reactors. Something that can be brought on a train. I forget the precise reasoning but it made a lot of sense at the time. Maybe that it was a modular design, and amenable to smaller plants.
India is trying IMO to get to the leading edge of new clear commerce by paying bada baksheesh to the ITER (Fusion) circus. Like the LIGO circus. This will pay off only if the knowledge gained is used to advance Indian R&D and fabrication technology, not if the researchers rush to phoren instead.
IMHO, terrestrial fusion technology is a bust. If it ever breaks even (more energy coming out than going in) the cost will still be mind-boggling.
Unless Cold Fusion becomes real.