Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

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ramana
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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby ramana » 26 Jun 2016 03:52

One question bothering experts is why they were wrong? Even Farage conceded before counting saying the Remain has slight edge.

Only one of 11 polls came close with 51% vs actual of 52% for leave.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby ashish raval » 26 Jun 2016 04:00

There is no historical data to correct the statistical errors that is why no exit polls were declared..

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby prahaar » 26 Jun 2016 04:12

The EU project was sold to the people as a means to better jobs derived from better business, free travel providing flexibility in job opportunities, secure-peaceful Europe. Now when people see millions of Syrian refugees pouring into Europe, Eastern Europe citizens traveling to other parts of EU, all the insecurities rise. A 1250 million India absorbs 10 million BDs and only a few states are significantly affected. But in Europe, character of small towns and villages alters with just 100 refugees.

The biggest issue is no jobs. And a UK citizen never considers an Italian or a Pole or a Romanian their own. A mere slowdown of 7 years has brought out the tribal instincts. EU bureaucracy and EU funded intelligentsia can make JNU intellectuals look like hardworking peasants. All this worked well until there was growth. Now in the hard times, masks are falling. Many people in India know more about the impending crisis in Europe but go and ask someone in EU land, and their reaction is no reaction.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby prahaar » 26 Jun 2016 04:15

Ramanaji, Leave was also portrayed as a "racist" choice, consequently many would have stayed silent or simply given a "good-looking" answer when asked.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Yagnasri » 26 Jun 2016 04:17

Most of the so-called experts are like Mani Shankar Ayar. Do expect them to be right Ramana Sir? I did not. I told to my CEO one day before that UK will vote to leave. I was wrong in GE 2014. But right about this which I have not even seriously followed. But when my friend told me that there are serious law and order problem in London, and he was told not to go out after 7 in the night, then I thought how sad the local people must be feeling.

I am a migrant myself within India, and I know how the local population feels in many major cities in India. The anger about nonlocals is there as an undercurrent almost everywhere even in India. Particularly in the places wherein outsiders do very well. Mumbai for example.

interesting video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKhQyL_wgk

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Surya » 26 Jun 2016 04:22

whats this nonsense about the Brits becoming Nazis?

They were worse than Nazis to begin with -- Late Victorian holocausts anyone?

the brits were just inhuman beasts, so completly devoid of any humanity, or empathy, that genocidal mass murder of the brown and yellow humans just did not register.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby eklavya » 26 Jun 2016 04:34

ramana wrote:Anyway Cameron should told to go ASAP. Why wait for October.

He destroyed 800 years of history.

and Britsh have become Nazis.


The Tory party process for electing a new leader takes until October. Cameron could certainly pack his bags tomorrow, but whosoever takes over as PM in the interim will not have a mandate from their own party, let alone the electorate. In the circumstances, staying until October is the best alternative.

How does leaving an organisation that the UK joined in 1973 involve 800 years of history? The Magna Carta dates from 1215, but I fail to see the link with the 2016 referendum.

Britain is an open democratic society; and Britain is becoming more, not less, tolerant and diverse. Among the 18 to 44 age group, there was a clear majority for Remain. London has an ethnic minority Mayor, gay marriage has been legalised, etc.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby member_29267 » 26 Jun 2016 04:41

From "Yes Minister", and so true even today :D The British and their dreams of being better than everyone


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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jun 2016 05:08

I don't share the concern about Londonabad financial markets. Ppl don't go put their money and make deals in London BECAUSE of EU - they do it despite EU, to dodge the hassles of Inspecteure Clouseau & Co.
KSA and Gelf Sheikhs may want their soosais to go to Paris and Broossels, but they themselves vastly prefer Londonabad and country estates. Much better legal protection for terrorist and sexual deviant behavior.

OTOH, look at why Leave won: most of the "younger generation" that was so pro-Oirope, were just too **** lazy and couldn't drag their own asses to the polling booth. Too used to having others to do their work for them, no notion of national pride and how hard it was to win wars - unlike the formerly drugged-out hippie older generation who at least remembered their parents the WW2 survivors, and managed to get out of bed and go vote.

So I think the financial markets are going to do fine. The Mutual Fund Managers will have to get their heads out of their musharrafs and find investments other than French and Polish companies.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Suraj » 26 Jun 2016 05:29

UlanBatori wrote:I don't share the concern about Londonabad financial markets. Ppl don't go put their money and make deals in London BECAUSE of EU - they do it despite EU, to dodge the hassles of Inspecteure Clouseau & Co.

London can only act as a base because it has something called an EU passport, which lets companies serve their EU businesses through London. That passport will now be revoked. The money moves elsewhere. London will only serve the much much smaller England market. London has lots of competitors here. No one wants them to keep the lucrative business without being in EU.

Big money does not sit around for months waiting for political clarity. They make their own plans and move. They don't have to move to mainland - they can move to Dublin or Edinburgh. The financial services industry in London contributes 15% of GDP. Ireland and Scotland stand to steal it, leaving behind England to deal with what's left of it.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby sudarshan » 26 Jun 2016 05:37

ramana wrote:One question bothering experts is why they were wrong? Even Farage conceded before counting saying the Remain has slight edge.

Only one of 11 polls came close with 51% vs actual of 52% for leave.


Were they really wrong? Those predicting Remain win were saying 52% Remain, 48% Leave. It turned out the other way. Isn't that still within the margin of error, when the contest is that close?

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jun 2016 05:56

True, but what Big Money???? The British saw the writing on the wall and did what they could to bail out: Europe is on a nice glide path, but with its thrust less than drag except for the sink rate. They don't produce high-quality goods except for the Germans. Their agriculture can't compete. Their Quixotic move to Green Energy is flopped. They have to cheat on their emissions numbers to sell their overpriced, under-quality cars. They have been living waaay beyond their means.

And now they are being overrun by refugees from a totally alien culture.
Airbus said it plainly but way too understated: BREXIT is a wake-up call, but pretty last-minute.

All the focus here is on whether the British can survive by bailing out at low altitude. But I think they had no alternative and no other hope. The young are just too lazy and lethargic to see it, and have never known any other way.

So they are going to compete with the Oiropeans in a race to the bottom - competing for Saudi and Chinese cash, selling to the Islamists or whoever will pay them for another day of living beyond their means.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Yagnasri » 26 Jun 2016 06:14

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk6Ymy758l4

Just see the description of EU given here. No wonder it has failed.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Suraj » 26 Jun 2016 06:15

UB: London is the world's biggest center of Euro-denominated trade, whether it be merchandise and services trade, commodities, futures or other derivatives. The turnover is $2 trillion per day. London's financial services industry is 10x bigger than Frankfurt and Paris. It generates a significant part of London's and UK's tax base, and is 15% of their GDP. Frankfurt and Paris would love to have it:
Paris and Frankfurt jostle for London’s mantle
Last week, Paris’s financial elite made the first move, hosting a conference at which they promised to “roll out the red carpet” for City bankers in the event of Brexit. While Frankfurt has yet to follow suit, local officials are confident that if the UK does vote to leave the EU, they can lure its financiers to the city on the banks of the Main.

“Brexit would be bad for Britain, for Germany and for the EU,” says Hubertus Väth from Frankfurt Main Finance, a body that promotes the city as a financial centre. “But if it does happen, then Frankfurt is well placed to benefit.”

Although the UK is outside the single currency area, the City is the world’s principal location for euro-denominated trading, a $2tn-a-day market. Banks are now making contingency plans to shift operations from London to the eurozone if the UK does vote for Brexit, in order to avoid disruption to their euro-business.

Many in the City believe membership of the EU is the reason why the UK has managed to date to foil attempts by the European Central Bank to prohibit clearing houses outside the eurozone from handling the currency.

How much business could move would depend on what economic relationship the UK and EU agreed on after a Brexit. But even a small shift would be a big deal for Frankfurt, according to Mr Väth. “London is 10 times the size of Frankfurt,” he says. “If just 1 per cent of its business comes here, that would be a 10 per cent increase for us.”

One of Frankfurt’s biggest pull factors is the ECB itself. As well as setting monetary policy, the central bank now also supervises the eurozone’s largest banks. This, say local bankers, has cemented Frankfurt’s position as the bloc’s financial hub.

London had a cozy arrangement until June 23 - they sat outside Eurozone and yet were the biggest clearinghouse of Euro transactions, by far. They were minting money out of that arrangement. They even tried that with Rupees - the 'masala bond' is a Rupee bond issued by LSE.

With UK breaking away, they lose a phenomenal amount of business. London was the center of dollar-euro, dollar-pound and pound-euro trade. They now lose 2 out of 3 of those, and are left with the smallest of them - the dollar-pound trade.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jun 2016 06:35

Frankfurt may do all right, but Paris and Brussells I think are doomed. If you were running a megacorp, would you trust your financial transaction capital to be in Paris? Strikes every second week, collapsing infrastructure, riots at night, terror attacks, wacko police, even more wack government leaders .... and most of all, a collapsing Europe around you.

Singapore maybe, but London is a bit less crowded and less humid. Nice country estates to be had still. So London may gain the dollar-yuan trade and the dollar-yen trade and the dollar-rupee trade. They can very well ignore the dollar-Oiro trade because the Oiro may be on an accelerating slide come Monday. Geneva would have been allright, but I think the days of sheltered numbered accounts are over. Today if you want to hide black money you go to BitCoin, not Swiss accounts. The US Feds have skewered the Swiss/Luxembourg business plan.

I don't see why London would lose Pound-Euro trade, except that the magnitude will come down.

So yes, Euro trade may be huge today, but for how long? Why would anyone except Greece trade in Euros anymore?

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Suraj » 26 Jun 2016 06:48

Actually financial companies already have a readymade alternative - Dublin. English speaking, similar laws as UK, and Ireland is a EU member. London just had a very large headstart and an existing reputation that prevented anyone from moving . Now they have to move, because they business that made most of the money cannot be run from London. Frankfurt may get some bits, but most of it will go to Dublin. If Scotland exits UK and joins EU, they can push Glasgow and Edinburgh the same way.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Kakkaji » 26 Jun 2016 07:02

I like these views from Anand Mahindra:

Brexit an exaggerated Tsunami alert, says Anand Mahindra

A day after Britain voted to leave the EU, Mahindra tweeted: "Brexit is a Tsunami alert to the world that I believe is exaggerated. The world needs to take a tranquilizer."

Explaining the rationale, he said: "The European experiment was akin to rolling a boulder uphill in the absence of complete political and fiscal union."

Mahindra feels that the post-Brexit negotiations are an opportunity to design a more practical global template for common markets and travel access.

The Mahindra group had, however, maintained that the impact on India and Indian industries will not be significant. It also added that there will be no impact on M&M and the effect on the Mahindra Group will be muted.

"As a group, our resilience will stand us in good stead and we are poised to take advantage of any opportunities that may emerge," Mahindra Group CFO V S Parthasarathy had said, adding Brexit would result in uncertainty in the immediate aftermath which will moderate over time.


From what I can remember, the 'European Integration' project was working fine for decades under the 'European Common Market' template. IMHO the leap into the "European Union" with a common currency and a common set of laws/ rules/ standards/ border controls/ labour market etc was a premature leap that went too far. This cannot work without a political union and, given the terrible history of conflict between the European countries, that political union is not happening anytime soon.

Under the current EU setup some major country or the other will always feel shortchanged by others.

I will not be surprised if the Germans voters get tired of supporting the Euro Zone financially, and walk out of the Euro. The Deutsche Mark will anyday be stronger than the Euro. The PIIGS can then devalue their currencies to become competitive again.

So, IMHO the only sustainable template for 'European Integration' is a Common Market, with each country maintaining its own currency, and its own political and legal system (including immigration policy).

The EU has not been very favorable for India, with some member or the other always lecturing India. It will be easier for India to conclude favorable trade agreements with at least a few major post-EU nations. Therefore, the sooner the European Union unravels, the better off everyone will be.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jun 2016 07:02

True, Surajji. London is also a mess, with outrageous real estate, Pakis... :) Dublin may well emerge a real winner. But then they may get blessed with reunion with Occupied (Northern) Eire, which is loseristan.
Boy! I watched the MP Jacob Rees-Mogg. VERY convincing, powerful speaker. As they say, chota-chota baccha bhi itni achhee tarah Angreji mein baat karta hain!

The EU appears to have modeled itself after Singapore: a Commission with powers to ignore the democratic will of the people of member countries. The Commission knows it all. And I have heard that the Commission is utterly self-absorbed, living like the Imperial Court of Russia and France combined.

Then they started imposing that centralized will on micro- local issues. The MP makes the point about local farmers, about the PM of Britain having to go and beg the Council of Ministers to beg The Commission to allow Britain to withdraw the VAT on sanitary napkins. And if the British government tried to help a local farmer, the EU would fine UQ heavily.

Soooo nice to see how the British felt to have those sorts of things imposed on them from some other capital. :rotfl: But all said and done, the Singapore Junta survives because, and only as long as, Singapore make money. EU has clearly run out of that ability. Standard of living and social welfare commitments far exceed the support base in productivity.
Maybe China will sell them Guillotines at a subsidized rate?
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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby SwamyG » 26 Jun 2016 07:06

Ramana, heard on Public Radio that bookies got it wrong because only people with money were making bets, while the referendum involved the poor who did not bet as much as the people with money.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jun 2016 07:25

It will be easier for India to conclude favorable trade agreements with at least a few major post-EU nations.
The MP hit that one too: UQ could not conclude bilateral trade agreements with India because only The Commission could do that.
I wonder what will happen to the Global Warming boondoggle. Already, price of a Carbon Credit (certificate saying you saved 1 ton of CO2) was down from like $40 circa 2007 to under $5 or so. It's so bad that they quit giving the daily price on PointCarbon - now you have to sign up and pay $$$ to get whatever.
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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby rahulm » 26 Jun 2016 07:30

Analysis: The defence implications of the UK leaving the EU Not much analysis - it's a teaser for a paid article.

By far the greatest risk resulting from the UK's 'Brexit' vote is that of contagion within the rest of the EU: the possibility that other nations might also drop out of the union, which could prove terminal for the project if such a nation turned out to be a major Eurozone member like France.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jun 2016 07:49

So I see that this is what happened with Switzerland: this June 16 their Parliament WITHDREW their long-standing Application To Join The EU (since 1992).

IOW, to paraphrase the Pilot's Weather Safety Advice, they also Saw The Light and realized that
It is much nicer to be On the Outside Thanking ATM That You Are Not In..
Than to be On the Inside Wishing You Were Out.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby KLP Dubey » 26 Jun 2016 07:57

Like I said, so many opportunities have sprung up almost overnight for India to divide and rule...Brexit, Frexit, Nexit, and what not. I feel that - like the precipitious drop in oil prices - this is another lucky break for India. NaMo is a master of blending foreign policy and economics. I feel sure that NaMo sarkar will exploit this to the hilt, sucking up capital investments and jobs, and preparing an iron-clad victory over anti-national forces in GE 2019.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Yagnasri » 26 Jun 2016 08:21

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTH0UrpSu2s

Documentary starting from M.Thacher and all. Interesting history.

Just take time and see this video. Particularly last 10 minutes.
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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby ldev » 26 Jun 2016 08:28

London will continue to do well in FX trading, all pairs/currencies, but inspite of the huge volumes, that business has wafer thin margins. It will lose it's status as a Euro Clearing Center for Euro securities, because the ECB does not want any euro clearing done outside the Eurozone. (Quite a contrast to the PBOC :shock: ) it will lose it's EU passport access which in practical terms means teams of securities salespersons servicing all of the EU but based in London. Other cities such as Dublin and Frankfurt will pick up some jobs as a result, but there will not be any massive build up of either place as an alternative.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Suraj » 26 Jun 2016 08:52

I disagree. London will lose a huge amount of its financial business. One of the basic underpinnings of that base of business is steady policy support. The Brexit vote pretty much pulls the rug from under their feet. There's no longer anything compelling about London. The Tories are in disarray. Labour is a dead man walking. NO ONE wants to be the one actually invoking Article 50 - that will be the last act of their political career. London's entire cachet revolves around a history of British pragmatism. That's gone now. The yobs of the Midlands won their way.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Satya_anveshi » 26 Jun 2016 09:01


Suraj
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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Suraj » 26 Jun 2016 09:03

The problem with the 'invocation of Article 50 will be gradual and orderly' is that it ignores every tenet of game theory here. Fundamentally, London no longer has any substantial bargaining power. Not with EU, not with Scotland, not even with Northern Ireland.

They tried an enormous bluff to get EU to give them more concessions, and accidentally ended up committing soosai themselves instead. EU doesn't like London much. London lives a charmed existence making money being the Euro's primary clearinghouse despite not even being in Eurozone. They get to keep the Pound. Those are old benefits they won for themselves, but which EU is happy to use any excuse to take away and never give back. UK cannot even rejoin EU - all new members are required to accede to the Eurozone as well. UK will NOT give up the Pound. The likes of Dublin and Frankfurt have no desire to let London take back the Euro clearinghouse status once they take it away. The longer London waits, the less beneficial a deal they get. It's that simple. They had negotiated a bunch of sweetheart treaties with the EU that they just walked away from. They'll not get it back.

All this talk about 'non binding referendum' is also nonsense. They're welcome to risk civil war by going against what most of England wanted. They're also welcome to risk civil war by keeping the Scots or Northern Ireland from splitting off. Sinn Fein's IRA weapons have barely gone cold since the end of the peace treaty.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby Satya_anveshi » 26 Jun 2016 09:35

In a way this is a divine justice for the brishit mainstream media propaganda against EU day in and day out. Despite net beneficiaries from EU, every reference to EU was disparaging and contrary to reality.

Once KMoron played the brexit card, the sheeple behaved just as they were programmed.

Even killing of law maker sympathetic to "Remain" cause couple day before the vote and inducing bit of guilt in the "Leave" camp to stay put from voting did not deter the sheeple.

I continue to believe that the riggers were just lax. It is never the voting that matters, it is only what happens after the voting (stuffing and counting) and declaring results that matters.

FP put it aptly:

The prime minister wanted to modernize the Tory Party and unify the United Kingdom. He accomplished exactly the opposite

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby eklavya » 26 Jun 2016 11:59

FT comment:

After Brexit, an estranged land heads for divorce and remorse

After Brexit, an estranged land heads for divorce and remorse

In the end, a man who always looked like the incarnation of British common sense gave his nation chaos. David Cameron mounted a defence of his premiership as he resigned on Friday but history will remember him for one failure and nothing else, if only because his compatriots will be living with it for years.

A leader cannot call a referendum on a question as large as the EU, lose it and expect posterity to take his innovative social reforms in mitigation. Not since Anthony Eden’s botched military intervention in the Suez Canal 60 years ago has a prime minister left office more ignominiously than this. Even Tony Blair won a third general election after the Iraq war before taking his leave.

From the germ of Thursday’s referendum result could sprout a recession, a snap general election, a period of draining diplomacy with Brussels over the terms of exit and, as mooted by Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s nationalist first minister, the UK’s fragmentation. Years will pass before this shock works its full effect.

In the meantime, a country that was a synonym for stability — that brandished its stability as a lure to investors — is suffused with doubt. Even the future of Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, whose independence was scurrilously questioned by Leave campaigners, is uncertain. Voters renewed Mr Cameron’s mandate last year precisely because he stood for dependable continuity in an unquiet world. His legacy will be the opposite.

The roster of achievements now certain to be obscured includes the single-handed electoral revival of an ailing Conservative party, the founding of a bipartisan coalition when Britain needed a government, reforms to every major public service and, impressively for a rural Tory who was not as liberal for as long as you might think, the creation of same-sex marriages. Through it all there was a slapdash streak and a quickness to capitulate to his party but, whatever his stumbles, he always seemed to land on a bed of eiderdown. Historians will now study that pattern of near-misses as a series of warnings.

This did not feel like a country straining to cashier its head of government, or one prepared for the turbulence ahead. If, as expected, it is Boris Johnson who succeeds Mr Cameron over the summer, he will take on a burden that makes his old job as London mayor look like part-time volunteer work.

Having swayed voters with a prospectus of vastly reduced immigration, he has to make it real. That will involve striking a deal with the EU. At the moment, Leavers cannot even strike a deal with themselves. It is a movement of socially conservative voters led by liberal free-traders. One side is about to be disappointed. If it is the masses, an already seething electorate will lose whatever scrap of trust it had in the political process.

While constructing this sovereign idyll, the new prime minister — and, given George Osborne’s low reputation among Leavers, the new chancellor of the exchequer — will have to keep economic sentiment perky. Britain had persistent deficits in its current account and government budget even before the chill on investment caused by the mere prospect of EU exit. Mr Cameron described the economy as “fundamentally strong” as he stood down on Friday. That is for markets to determine.

The new prime minister must also take on Ms Sturgeon as she pushes for another referendum on Scottish secession and defuse the majority of Tory MPs who voted Remain, many of whom will wonder why a leader who helped to get them elected is evacuating Downing Street before he turns 50. Then there is the awkward position of pro-European Northern Ireland, where the idea of unity with the Republic is already in the air.

Above all, there is the cultural estrangement of one Britain from another. This country, it was easy to think until now, is divided only in the way that any complicated democratic society is divided. It is not as if France or America are lands of immaculate harmony. But the referendum exposed something very particular here. Although they are at opposite ends of the country, London and Scotland appear to share a sensibility — internationalist, anti-conservative if not anti-Conservative — that fares badly in much of the space in between. There is lots of glib talk among politicians concerning the urgent need to bring the nation together. It is hard to see what platform of policies, under which national leader, could possibly achieve this.

Thursday closed one question, and opened so many more. We must hope that Mr Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom and other prominent Leavers have some answers. For if they have chased the prize of sovereignty without knowing what to do with it, the surprise that voters feel at the loss of Mr Cameron will become dismay, then remorse, then anger.

janan.ganesh@ft.com

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby eklavya » 26 Jun 2016 12:04

FT:

Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain

Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain

People walk to work in the City of London, in London, Britain June 24, 2016. REUTERS/Neil Hall
©Reuters
Banks have already begun to take action to shift operations out of the UK, with the governor of France’s central bank warning on Saturday that Britain’s financial services groups were at risk of losing their right to operate across the EU.

Investment banks have reacted immediately to Britain’s referendum result, with some of the City’s largest institutions approaching regulators to secure licences and lining up executives to relocate.

The big US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley — have large operations employing tens of thousands of people in the UK. They are now preparing to shift some of this work to cities such as Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt.

The danger to the UK’s financial services sector was highlighted in comments on Saturday morning from France’s central bank governor, who warned that banks would lose “passporting” rights to operate in the EU if Britain leaves the single market.

François Villeroy de Galhau said on Saturday it was “paradoxical” to allow the City of London to operate by the EU’s rules and not be a member of the European Economic Area in the manner of Norway.

The governor of the Banque de France and an ECB governing council member told French radio: “There is a precedent, it is the Norwegian model of the European Economic Area, that would allow Britain to keep access to the single market but by committing to implement all EU rules.”

These first significant comments from a European Central Bank figure make it clear the EU will not give the British financial sector an easy transition.

Lawyers advising US investment banks have warned that the so-called passporting rights they rely on to sell products and services from Britain to EU clients could be partially or entirely abolished depending on the outcome of negotiations over the UK’s exit from the EU.

“We’ll get on with it,” said a senior executive at one large US bank. “We’ve started to think about how we put people in our existing offices and entities in Europe. We are already rebalancing our footprint.”

“Some stuff will move quickly — we’ll travel at the pace of the slowest link,” said the executive. “Regulatory approvals and permissions can take time — we will look ahead at all the circumstances and ask what do we need to continue to serve our clients.”

Many of the US banks have been quietly bulking up European entities outside the UK to which they can transfer some activities, but most of them still lack sufficient licences to carry out many of the operations they at present run out of London.

“If you don’t have a [full EU] licence [outside the UK] then you need to start work right away,” said the head of investment banking at a large group.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, warned before the referendum that as many as 4,000 jobs could be shifted out of the UK. But investment bank boss Daniel Pinto — whose unit employs most of JPMorgan’s 16,000 staff in Britain — told the Financial Times that the US group hoped to keep most of its UK investment bank intact.

Mr Pinto conceded that for some products and services, such as global custody and corporate deposits, it would “need to figure out a way to deal with that”, but any moves would be gradual.


“We will not start moving people until we have clarity on what we will be allowed to do from the UK once the negotiations [on the terms of the country’s exit from the EU] start to take shape,” he said.

Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s chief executive, had said the bank may move as many as 1,000 of its 5,000 UK-based investment banking staff to Paris if Brexit happened. Other UK banks, such as Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, may also need to strengthen their European presence outside of the UK.

Jonathan Lewis, head of Japan’s Nomura International, which employs about 2,600 staff in London, said it would have to “wait and see” how things unfolded before making any big decisions about its locations or operating structures.

But his base case was that the UK would be left at a disadvantage. “I don’t see how anyone can say with any certainty that passporting will continue. Switzerland doesn’t have passporting, neither does the US, so we cannot assume we will,” he said.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby IndraD » 26 Jun 2016 12:58

Churning in labour party, many want Corbyn to go. Half of top team of labour resign.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby IndraD » 26 Jun 2016 14:21

some cartoons doing rounds

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby ashish raval » 26 Jun 2016 15:06

I can clearly see that lot of people clearly does not know UK who I believe will be no 2 in the world right now in terms of basic science research.right from invention of graphene to making engines for Airbus. They clearly see UK as simple clearing houses of these trades and pretty much don't understand that UK is not you see in media. There is a UK which resides in Oxford Cambridge imperial ucl kings Manchester Southampton whose students make up its basic strm workforce and are head to head with iit iisc pedigrees and world class innovators. Those who see this nation as little Englanders has clearly not accessed the top echelons of this nation. I have and can tell you this country produces best of its class creative, legal, financial and scientific talent..London alone has skyline and assets worth 8 trillion of the back of 1.5 trillion in debt no one knows how much gold bank of England has it was 7 floors as far as rounds are concerned. They are doing good in financial tech innovation, broadcasting, sports yada yada
..to see it as mere financial powerhouse is a folly..

India will get a good trade deal..last time modi came here Cameron wanted to give good deal but had to tie down because of EU rules and now Britain is free it would strike good deals with other nations. Remember the fact that it is still consumes a fifth of all cars germans are producing and only Germany knows very well how shrewd, cunning and intelligent English people are..

Financial services moving to Germany lol..has anyone interacted with Franco German snobs..they hate everything written in English and I would love Goldman Sachs to gamble with its money in EU and see how far it can transverse under the maze of EU they will be sucked out of their blood drop by drop by EU leech..and would not even realise what has hit them..they know this very well.

BAE can easily produce Airbus competition in the market if they want..they have enough brainpower and history to do it..uk did sacrifice of its aerospace industry in name of cooperation with EU there are no if and but about it..
Last edited by ashish raval on 26 Jun 2016 15:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby IndraD » 26 Jun 2016 15:16

Many towns of Wales with zero immigrants and showered with EU cash voted out will be one of the biggest losers https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... -ebbw-vale

The West Wales and the Valleys region was identified as the poorest region in the whole of north-western Europe. To address this, from 2014 to 2020, Wales would have benefited from around £1.8bn EU European Structural Funds investment.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby ashish raval » 26 Jun 2016 15:19

How much would have UK contributed to EU to keep access to EU markets - any guess? - 120 billion £ and you are after 2 percent of that fund which is returned back..lol

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby IndraD » 26 Jun 2016 15:33

£120 billion over how many years? ^^

Different sites have different sources, different figures. Germany pays more than it gets in return into EU than UK. Same is true for France.

Taking account of the money that comes back and the aid spending, Britain last year gave almost £6.5 billion to the EU that would otherwise not have been paid out if we were not members of the club. That’s almost £18 million a day.
EU supporters say that money is more than worth it, since it is prerequisite of membership and thus access to the single market, which they say profits the UK by far more than £6.5 billion

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... udget.html

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby RajeshA » 26 Jun 2016 15:40

Published on Jun 23, 2016
By Kirsteen Paterson
JK Rowling among the No voters thinking again following Brexit against Scotland's will: The National Scot

“I’M SORRY, I regret it, I am with you this time” – former No voters yesterday declared they would mark their cross for an independent Scotland in a second indyref.

Speaking at Bute House yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon said many people who voted against independence in 2014 who were “reassessing their decision”. Her words rang true as Scots took to social media to reveal their changed or changing allegiances.

Author JK Rowling, who has previously been subject to harsh criticism and online abuse for her pro-UK stance, suggested Scottish independence was now inevitable, stating that David Cameron’s legacy would be “be breaking up two unions” in a series of tweets sparking speculation about her position.

Responding to the BBC’s James Cook, she said: “Staunch opponent implies I was pro-Union no matter what, which was never the case. Many No voters will think again now.”

Meanwhile, Harry Potter fan Hufflepuff Carol, from Glasgow, said: “I am so sorry for each and every time I spoke against Scottish nationalists. I am with you this time #indyref2.”


English-born businesswoman Caroline Castle, who has lived in Scotland with her family for seven years, told The National she was ready to vote Yes after rejecting Scottish independence first time around.

The 57-year-old said Brexit was the turning point, stating: “I voted Labour in General Elections in the past and I voted Tory at the last Scottish election, for Ruth Davidson. I voted No in the referendum but the situation we are facing changes that.

“The EU is the more important union. Leaving the EU will damage the UK’s economic prospects so much that if Scotland was able to get an independent membership it would bring investment not only in financial terms but also in people. We need people.”

CommonSpace editor Angela Haggerty revealed how her “staunch, No-supporting dad” was now a “don’t know” on Scottish independence, saying she was “stunned” by the change.

Meanwhile, social media user Eryn Stewart said: “I was [a] No voter in the Scottish independence referendum and I will hold my hands up and say that I am starting to regret it.”

Aberdeen man Martin Leng, 23, told The National he was “unable to justify remaining” in the UK after Scotland’s strong Remain vote failed to stop Brexit.

He said: “I’m pro-European and voted to Remain. I believe that the world needs fewer borders, not more. The potential instability of an independent Scottish economy, built on fluctuating oil prices and potentially outside the EU, was a risk I was not prepared to take.

“Thanks to yesterday’s result, the UK is set to withdraw from a peaceful union of peoples and plunge itself into economic uncertainty – exactly what I sought to avoid during the independence referendum. If maintaining that union involves Scotland leaving the UK, then so be it.”

He added: “I reach that conclusion with a heavy heart – I would ideally remain within both the UK and the EU. However, if I am to be forced to choose between the two, as now appears likely, I prefer to pursue friendly international co-operation over an ill-considered isolation Scotland has clearly rejected.”

Former No voter Jacqui Chisholm, from Eyemouth, said she would vote Yes if given another chance, stating: “In the run up to indyref there was a lot of things they scaremongered about, like the currency and border control. We have been part of the EU for all of my lifetime and I want to stay part of it.”

Graeme Moore, 30, who works in oil and gas, said “selfish” fears about house prices and jobs caused him to vote No in 2014, but said Brexit was “a game-changer”. He said: “I am definitely Yes now. What Scotland wanted was forced to one side behind what England wants.


Talk about Frankenstein!

Britain spawned a monster of Fabian Socialism, Left-Liberalism, Political Correctness and Islamophilia and thought they could use it to thrash all others with a morality stick. The liberal PC establishment (who are actually fascists who use long-winded high English abuse words to silence others) is now turning on its old master England, and willing to shift to Europe whole scale making it their next snake's nest.

Expect next time Scottish Independence to receive maximum help from the mainstream media who were earlier shunning Scottish 'Yes' Independence movement as primitive chest-thumping ethnic nationalism.

Once Scotland is free, expect Northern Island to split. In fact it would happen peacefully, as EU would use their economic clout to demand from England to put a leash on Unionists and let the democratic aspirations of the Catholics to be fulfilled.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby member_28663 » 26 Jun 2016 15:41

ldev wrote:London will continue to do well in FX trading, all pairs/currencies, but inspite of the huge volumes, that business has wafer thin margins. It will lose it's status as a Euro Clearing Center for Euro securities, because the ECB does not want any euro clearing done outside the Eurozone. (Quite a contrast to the PBOC :shock: ) it will lose it's EU passport access which in practical terms means teams of securities salespersons servicing all of the EU but based in London. Other cities such as Dublin and Frankfurt will pick up some jobs as a result, but there will not be any massive build up of either place as an alternative.


Yes, this is pretty much accurate.

One thing to understand is that all these big businesses - be it banks, clearinghouses, money managers - are shape shifters. They have multiple entities across domiciles and the usual response to any change in laws is to pay lip service to it but quietly change entity structure, for instance which entity's name to trade under. This involves a lot of lawyerly work but rarely a physical shift of employees.

A physical shift happens when either the laws leave them with no choice (and many European/UK laws were lately being framed to leave them no choice) or when there is a strategic priority, for instance HSBC considering moving headquarters to Asia. Or a combination of the two.

As things stand, banks had already been considering moving physical locations to Dublin or continental Europe because of the UK bank levy. Brexit will only add weight to that move. I think Paris and Dublin will be the winners but even they will not win in any big way. European financial industry is only a shadow of its formal self.

The UK will then be exporting less financial services to Europe. Will it be making more cars or steel to compensate? It sounds very difficult in these times of overcapacity. So my overall analysis is it was a bad move for the UK, economically speaking. Of course there are other dimensions.

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Re: Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

Postby ashish raval » 26 Jun 2016 15:43

Over 6 years mentioned in that project. Germany gives more but than eu does what it says and has got more EU institution offices etc around it. Britain on other hand is outvoted 70 times out of 70 times it has proposed something. Clearly Europeans hate British because it banged them in two world wars and even previously. French lost game of business language and have axe to grind. I see gradual death of EU from here..


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