Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

[deejay]

Another important pointer in terms of how long it has taken for this to come about. Just a small segment of timeline starting from '48: This thread started on 06th Sep 2006. PM Modi's statement came on 12th Aug 2016. The need has been felt for long and an Independent Balochistan is important in both freeing the people of Balochistan and India's neighbourhood becoming more secure.

Illusions that Baloch will become forever friends of all weather kind should not be formed. What is important is to understand is that a free Balochistan restricts Paki autonomy in terms of Sui Gas, Gawadar, other minerals and resources. Loss of Balochistan of course will hurt the TFTA H&D of the Pakjabi elite too. Militarily, Pakistan will have lost a large backyard (that is what it uses Balochistan as) and its access to Indian Ocean will have been curtailed. The advantage of Pakistan to China will have greatly reduced. Loss of Quetta for the purposes hosting "Good Taliban" will also hurt Pakistan and push the Talibunnies towards Punjab.

Finally, loss of Balochistan and POK may happen together (or so my Jingo mind thinks). That is another dimension and deserves a separate thread where we game the scenarios.

In the meanwhile here are some maps to explain Balochistan:

Full Balochistan extent:


Pakistan area of Balochistan which will be freed:


Pakistan without Balochistan and POK:

[Karthik S]

Wow, look how narrow the coast line would become. Can easily control their sea lines in this scenario.

[deejay]

Wow, look how narrow the coast line would become. Can easily control their sea lines in this scenario.

The width is ideal for a Tejas only air warfare.

As the GOI firms up on Balochistan, the resistance to idea shall come from 02 fronts:
> External - which is to be expected and
> Internal - which should not have been but we know it is to be expected.

The Internal resistance is going to come from those who we know as Pak Infatuated Elite Darbaaris of Lutyens and those forces which are inherently opposed to strong democratic India like the Left and the Umma birathers linked to Saudi Arabia. I expect this resistance to go through various stages:

a) Ignore - Like most of the MSM tried initially
b) Downplay - Call it a propaganda like here : http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/balochistan ... ?site=full(The article itself is differently worded than the headline of NDTV)
c) Reject or direct attack on GOI - Like Salman Khurshid did.

What is more important than the resistance itself is who are the resisting agents and there links to Pakistan if any.

Edited article link tag

[Karthik S]

There sure will be internal resistance. But IMO, their relevance is diminishing day by day, especially when it comes to dealing with pakis, they won't find much support from general public.

[Karthik S]

http://swarajyamag.com/featured/morning ... -5000-jobs

BD BACKS INDIA

Bangladesh has also come out in support of India’s stand on the Balochistan issue, saying it would soon make a policy declaration on Pakistan’s human rights abuses in Balochistan. Hasanul Haque Inu, the Minister of Information in the Sheikh Hasina government, compared the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971 with the situation in Balochistan.

Mr Inu is a former leader of the Mukti Bahini, the guerrilla force that fought against Pakistan during 1971 war and is currently on a three-day visit to India where he is scheduled to meet a range of policy-makers, including National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

[Vineetmehta_del]

Dear Guru's, i remembered once reading in one of the BR forums that residents of Baluchistan/FATA were used by Britishers to oppress Indians. I tried searching those posts but unable to find the same.

May i request you to please share links in this regard or please correct me. Thank you

[habal]

Dear Guru's, i remembered once reading in one of the BR forums that residents of Baluchistan/FATA were used by Britishers to oppress Indians. I tried searching those posts but unable to find the same.

May i request you to please share links in this regard or please correct me. Thank you

you are thinking of baloch regiment which was used by british to suppress dissent in punjab and was used against the sikhs. This regiment was staffed by pakjabis.

[arun]

The Hindu’s reportage on Bangladesh’s Minister of Information, Hasanul Haque Inu , conveying support for our Prime Minister Modi pointing out atrocities committed by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan targeting fellow Mohammaddens in Balochistan:

Bangladesh backs Modi on Balochistan

…………… Speaking to The Hindu, Hasanul Haque Inu , the visiting Minister of Information in the Sheikh Hasina government, said Balochistan was facing the brunt of Pakistan’s military establishment, which “targeted” the Bengalis in East Pakistan in 1971 before the creation of Bangladesh.

“Pakistan has a very bad track record as far as addressing aspiration of nationalities is concerned. They learnt nothing from the defeat of 1971 and continued to practise the same policy of repression and are now targeting the Baloch nationalists,” Mr. Inu said.

“Bangladesh is constitutionally bound to support liberation struggles and we will soon declare an official policy on Balochistan,” he added. ……………..

For good measure Bangladesh’s Minister of Information, Hasanul Haque Inu , also accused the Islamic Republic of Pakistan of exporting Mohammadden Terror:

“Pakistan exports terror and Pakistan needs to be confronted about the futility of its policies that it has refused to change till now,”

[Pratyush]

Wow, things are moving quickly. Who would have thought that Bangladesh will move this quickly in the direction of supporting Balochistan.

[deejay]

Wow, things are moving quickly. Who would have thought that Bangladesh will move this quickly in the direction of supporting Balochistan.

I am also interested in any positions taken by Afghan, Iran and Chinese governments or media. I expect most Western Media to give it a miss until their governments take cognizance.

A heart rending story narrated by a Baloch girl as tweeted by Tarek Fateh

https://twitter.com/TarekFatah/status/7 ... 7834550273

Video in link.

[prahaar]

Western elites have a similar attitude towards people's deaths in non-West regions as many Indian elites have regarding death of people in the "provinces" or "Mofussil India". Indians and Pakistanis keep fighting but in US they live like civilized neighbors.

So West attention to Balochistan will happen only if they see any use as a leverage against India.

[rsingh]

if Bakistan gets rid of Baluchs and Sindhis then the can get rid of bakistani navy, which is a great strain on Bakistani economy. They used same logic in 1971

[Bheeshma]

Baluchistan cannot attain freedom without US and India helping out. At best India alone can help create a big insurgency but will need US and western world to recognize it and bring about the freedom.

[ranjan.rao]

^^ more than the recognition US support would be required to secure their Nuclear weapons in case things reach that stage....US/China too would not like a N-holocaust in the world..

[svinayak]

Baluchistan cannot attain freedom without US and India helping out. At best India alone can help create a big insurgency but will need US and western world to recognize it and bring about the freedom.

India will give passive support to Baluchistan. The freedom movement needs to be given global support.

This will expose the military govt of Pak and its sham freedom

[Gagan]

My feeling is that the Baloch and Sindhi movements have been clubbed together?

The pakhtoon want pakhtoonistan, which is why they are bombing Peshawar repeatedly. They have done wall paintings declaring liberation of Pakhtoon nation several years ago. People remember several years ago, when Hamid Mir said from NWFP that "Pakistan has come to an end here - there is no Pakistan here"

[vijayk]

I haven't had access to this forum for 4 or 5 years. I was banned and/or locked out. My email got address messed up and I could not unlock it. I gave up literally on BRF. Tried logging in after several years couple of days and worked.

My dream was to see Sonia mukth India. We still have the DIEnasty control media and CON party still but not strong among people of India anymore. I am glad to see that. I knew how dangerous that UPA regime was. All the leaks on Hindutva terror only showed how openly anti-national the regime was and how our media collaborated with Islamic terrorists, Pakis, ISI, LeT, Chinese, EJs, NGOs, west to destroy India brick by brick validated many conspiracy theories. They literally tried to kill Modi with LeT handlers and even went against IB for stopping that. Still, their minsters/CON party leaders are roaming free. The journalists are still roaming openly free with propaganda units like NDTV/AAJTAK/ABN.

I am glad to be see this forum going strong and see Modiji in charge. Glad to be back.

At this stage, we need to use Baluchistan to strike Pakis and work towards dismembering them forever. Baluchis never wanted to be part of this filthy nation but British/Nehru betrayed them.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/f ... 008283.ece

Afghanistan’s former President Hamid Karzai “appreciated” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement on the human rights situation in Balochistan on Friday, saying that India had every right to respond to Pakistan’s provocations.

“Pakistani authorities have spoken freely on Afghanistan and India, but this is the first time that the PM of India has spoken about Balochistan,” Mr. Karzai said during a visit to Delhi.

“However I don’t think India intends to go to any proxy wars in the region as it has a tradition of peaceful coexistence. The region should not go to proxy wars,” he added.

The remarks from the former Afghan president, who has often called out Pakistan for its support to the Taliban, come a day after Bangladesh Information Minister Hassanul Haq Inu had also backed Mr. Modi’s statements.
Speaking to an all-party meeting on Kashmir last week, and in his address on independence day, Mr. Modi had vowed to take up the cause of Baloch people facing repression in Pakistan on the international stage, and said he had received many messages from them.

[Prem]

[prahaar]

The last line in Gujarati does add a punch, at least to those who can understand the language. Thanks for sharing. I have heard Garba songs during Nav ratri which refer to Hinglaj mata. I have met some Gujarati families whose ancestral deity is in Balochistan. And regarding Sindh, the same story.

[RoyG]

The rule is if one province breaks off, than all of them will. Punjab will be alone.

We must now begin preparing to limit the influence of Iran and Afghanistan.

Pakistan's break up will happen within the decade.

[Yagnasri]

I am not sure. Baluch is not B'Desh. It would be very difficult for us to support them overtly in any armed conflict. But there is a serious scope for insurgency, and we can do that from Afgan and even Iran border ( provided Iran agrees to it.) if we are not already doing that.

I do not think PM's 15.08.2016 statement is made without a long preparation. AD must have been working on for months for all we know. What we may be seeing now is the declaration of policy for which a lot of groundwork and preparation has gone into for a long time may be from May 2014 as a contingency measure if pakis do not come clean with us.

Just observe how T.Fatah was welcomed into Indian media in the last one year and who he has spoken about Baluch people sufferings time and again since then preparing Indian public for an issue which is never on their radar. I do not think it is a coincidence. Just like Indira before 1971 war we will not go to the world and various capitals on this issue. I am looking at war in two years maximum.

[krisna]

Wrt Baluchistan, some serious issues
Population is very minimal relative to panjab and other areas.
Largest province but minimal population.
Tough to defend the land which is huge.
Relatively Baluchis have poor weapons but this can change with external support.
At best Baluchistan will have armed struggle but no ndependence.
Pretty sad at the situation

[Yagnasri]

Even with a large population, it can not be defended easily with it has a neighbour like a Pakistan. Just look at Afghans. Pak never allowed them to live in peace. Loss of this province is not an option to pakis. So once the problems there increase, Pak will try to go for a war with us now. They will think that their Islamic bomb will stop any serious aggression from us and loss of territory in our borders in the end.

Who knows NM and AD may be expecting Pak to act in that direction so that Pak can be destroyed as a threat to us. Further, a big win on Pak will ensure NM will continue as PM after 2019 and may be after 2024.

[deejay]

Baloch separatism has gone through various phases and spurts. The current movement started when Gen Musharraf was in power around 2003. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balochistan_conflict

In all conflicts Baloch have fought PA literally with little international support. Poorly armed and in low numbers. What is important to remember one does not need a million strong army to make it difficult for the enemy while fighting Guerrilla warfare.

The template of Bangladesh may not be apt but there are points which may be used. While Bangladesh was heavily populated, I have not found references of Mukti Bahini being a greater than 50K troops. Even in the Mukti Bahini the number of troops varied during various phases of resistance during 1971. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._A._G._Osmani M.A.G. Osmani was the Commander in Chief of Mukti Bahini in 1971.

This means that raising a 20-30K Baloch force will be enough to wage an effective Guerrilla War against PA.

Capture of territory and holding it is a different challenge. Here, a pointer to two recent news I saw on twitter will help understand.
News1> Pak helicopter gunships fire upon and destroy a Baloch village.
News2> Pak Army soldiers burn a Baloch Village saying Allah will give them more.

If an army is able to physically go and destroy a village why did it use air assets at another? Was it unable to go there? Yes, as per me. There are large areas in Balochistan where road infrastructure is very basic. The place is hilly and ambushes are common. PA fears casualties and hence uses air assets against Baloch. A good supply of MANPADs and training to Baloch will help in neutralising the role of PA air assets.

PA is also loath in deploying its best units away from Eastern border. An increase in sophistication and activity of Baloch Guerrillas will force them to redeploy some assets in Balochistan if the Air arm becomes less effective.

A Baloch navy like the Mukti Bahini navy (however small) armed and active like the pirates off Somalia coast will also make work in Gwadar difficult - both for PN and PLAN.

There will be casualties on Baloch side but an increased headache in Balochistan is not something PA wants or welcomes.

It is also my guess that GOI has already spoken to Iran, Afghanistan and Balochis (at least) that this support is only for Pakistani held Balochistan.

An important point to remember is that GOI is making statements on POK and Balochistan together and not separately. The pressure on Pakistan will come on both fronts simultaneously. I also expect Pashtuns from Afghanistan side to open fronts on the Western borders for PA.

These are my opinions only. I am keen to read what SSridhar ji and Rajaram ji have to say on this.

[Vivasvat]

Cross posting from STFU thread:
Four bullet-ridden bodies found in Balochistan's Kalat district

Levies sources said the bodies were found in the Nimargh area of Kalat district. All the victims had received bullet injuries

In a separate incident, unknown miscreants blew up an eight-inch gas pipeline in Balochistan's Dera Bugti. Levies sources said gas supply from well number 7 was suspended following the incident.

Militants have conducted attacks against security forces and national installations in Balochistan, which has been plagued by an insurgency and growing sectarian killings for more than a decade.

[deejay]

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/baloc ... 66062.html

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's advocacy for muscular diplomacy on Pakistan has caught his political rivals off guard. By raking up the issue of Balochistan, Gilgit and Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, the options for non-BJP parties are considerably limited as the move is seen to have aligned with the public mood which favours an unforgiving and punitive approach towards Pakistan.

This makes the Opposition's dilemma more acute as they are aware of the adverse fallout of critical approach to Modi's policies.
Some discordant voices in Congress from the likes of Salman Khursheed and Digvijaya Singh, which are in any case contrary to the main opposition party's official line, are being taken as an aberration.

Though no leader in opposition ranks would come on record to hail Modi's Independence Day speech, the part where he spoke of Balochistan, POK and Gilgit but privately some of his political rivals appreciate his decision to take Pakistan head on. This time around, their actual concern is different -- not how Pakistan may respond in times to come, push for terror acts, infiltration, cause greater disturbances in Jammu and Kashmir or how the international community would take it in due course but the move may become an emotional rallying point whereby people may choose to ignore Modi government's present and prospective failures.
There is, however, a rider if Modi stands true to his words and stays consistent on what he said on Independence Day and at the all-party meeting.

In last two years, he had not been consistent with his Pakistan policy. But now he has taken a position from where it would be difficult for him to retract and make a dovish posture. Bollywood superstar Samlan Khan's dialogue in movie Wanted "Ek baar jo maine commitment kardi, us ke baad toh mein khud ki bhi nahi suntan (Once I make a commitment after that I don't even listen to myself)" should serve as a reminder to him or his motto in this regard. (:lol: )

A senior leader of an important regional party, which otherwise is always very critical of Modi and the BJP, requesting anonymity said, "This is a move which no party can afford to oppose. He has hit bang on by going with the growing national sentiment. You see, lately nationalist sentiments are on the rise in India, so much so that the secular-communal debate has lost its relevance. So much so that today if you are referred being a secularist, you can consider yourself to be perceived as someone who is opposed to nation's interests. An opposition to Modi on his Balochistan, PoK, Gilgit statement against Pakistan would amount to even worse, being pro-Pakistan. No right thinking leader or party can afford it. That's the reason why Congress had to clarify on Samlan Khursheed and Digvijaya Singh remarks by the official spokesman of the party. Even P Chidambaram's statement on Kashmir was swiftly clarified by Congress."

With state and non-state actors from Pakistan getting involved in stoking violence in the Kashmir Valley and the fact that it was increasingly weighing heavily on the broad national conscience, it was need of the hour that India responded strongly. Modi did exactly that to keep his domestic constituency enthused to him.

Even as Modi had surprised the world by talking about Balochistan, PoK and Gilgit from Red Fort after unfurling the national tricolour, he had the prudence to call an all-party meeting at Parliament House only three days ago on 12 August and deliberate on the same at length. He had taken the mandate of the all-party meet and had gone a step ahead by publicly speaking over the subject. It must be noted that Prime Minister's nationally televised speech is heard live by foreign diplomats, all policy makers, political party leaders, security forces in remotest possible corner and in border areas.

An all-party meet on Kashmir was demanded by the Opposition and Modi had found it conveniently timed to him to make that big bang announcement of strategic shift in the government of India's policy. Leaders of political parties, across the party lines are closely looking at it, to assess which way thing were moving and the position they should take. The unfolding events of past few days indicate that Modi is coming true to his words, at least for now.

The external affairs ministry is speaking in a language that is otherwise heard from military commanders. Take for instance, Vikas Swarup's tweet, attaching ministry's statement in response to Pakistan foreign office of proposing to send supplies in Jammu and Kashmir: "......India and others in the region have already received enough of Pakistan trademark exports -- international terrorism, cross border infiltration, weapons, narcotics and fake currency."

Indian external affairs ministry's announcement of a five-point agenda for any prospective talks on Thursday and assertion that if the talks have to be held it has to be held on terrorism through a letter submitted a day earlier by Indian high commissioner Gautam Bambawale to the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, has placed Modi's words in writing.

Indian Express reported India has asked Pakistan to end incitement to violence and terrorism from Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir, stop cross-border terrorism, detain and prosecute terrorists like Masood Azhar and Hafiz Saeed, deny a safe haven to fugitives like Mumbai underworld don Dawood Ibrahim and close terror camps where terrorists like Bahadur Ali have been trained. India also proposed discussing Pakistan vacating the illegally occupied portion of Jammu and Kashmir. It also sought a briefing from the Pakistan Foreign Secretary on the progress in the 26/11 trial in Pakistan and its probe into the Pathankot airbase attack.

Pakistan Foreign Ministry's assertion that by talking about Balochistan, PM Modi had crossed the "red line", has only strengthened his and his party BJP's domestic constituency.

A leader of rival political party said Modi's recent talks on issues that have been agitating public mind coupled with a new trend with religion is mixed with nationalism -- like the new phenomenon of some kawariyan carrying a national flag while walking barefooted with Gangajal to their chosen destination for offering to Lord Shiva -- concerns us to revisit our strategy. And currently they don't have a political counter to that.

There is a lot in play here.

[Karthik S]

Baloch separatism has gone through various phases and spurts. The current movement started when Gen Musharraf was in power around 2003. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balochistan_conflict

In all conflicts Baloch have fought PA literally with little international support. Poorly armed and in low numbers. What is important to remember one does not need a million strong army to make it difficult for the enemy while fighting Guerrilla warfare.

The template of Bangladesh may not be apt but there are points which may be used. While Bangladesh was heavily populated, I have not found references of Mukti Bahini being a greater than 50K troops. Even in the Mukti Bahini the number of troops varied during various phases of resistance during 1971. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._A._G._Osmani M.A.G. Osmani was the Commander in Chief of Mukti Bahini in 1971.

This means that raising a 20-30K Baloch force will be enough to wage an effective Guerrilla War against PA.

Capture of territory and holding it is a different challenge. Here, a pointer to two recent news I saw on twitter will help understand.
News1> Pak helicopter gunships fire upon and destroy a Baloch village.
News2> Pak Army soldiers burn a Baloch Village saying Allah will give them more.

If an army is able to physically go and destroy a village why did it use air assets at another? Was it unable to go there? Yes, as per me. There are large areas in Balochistan where road infrastructure is very basic. The place is hilly and ambushes are common. PA fears casualties and hence uses air assets against Baloch. A good supply of MANPADs and training to Baloch will help in neutralising the role of PA air assets.

PA is also loath in deploying its best units away from Eastern border. An increase in sophistication and activity of Baloch Guerrillas will force them to redeploy some assets in Balochistan if the Air arm becomes less effective.

A Baloch navy like the Mukti Bahini navy (however small) armed and active like the pirates off Somalia coast will also make work in Gwadar difficult - both for PN and PLAN.

There will be casualties on Baloch side but an increased headache in Balochistan is not something PA wants or welcomes.

It is also my guess that GOI has already spoken to Iran, Afghanistan and Balochis (at least) that this support is only for Pakistani held Balochistan.

An important point to remember is that GOI is making statements on POK and Balochistan together and not separately. The pressure on Pakistan will come on both fronts simultaneously. I also expect Pashtuns from Afghanistan side to open fronts on the Western borders for PA.

These are my opinions only. I am keen to read what SSridhar ji and Rajaram ji have to say on this.

India can assist formation of Baloch, Pashtun and PoK alliance, wherein they wage guerrilla warfare simultaneously.

[svinayak]

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/baloc ... 66062.html

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's advocacy for muscular diplomacy on Pakistan has caught his political rivals off guard. By raking up the issue of Balochistan, Gilgit and Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, the options for non-BJP parties are considerably limited as the move is seen to have aligned with the public mood which favours an unforgiving and punitive approach towards Pakistan.

This makes the Opposition's dilemma more acute as they are aware of the adverse fallout of critical approach to Modi's policies.
Some discordant voices in Congress from the likes of Salman Khursheed and Digvijaya Singh, which are in any case contrary to the main opposition party's official line, are being taken as an aberration.

Though no leader in opposition ranks would come on record to hail Modi's Independence Day speech, the part where he spoke of Balochistan, POK and Gilgit but privately some of his political rivals appreciate his decision to take Pakistan head on. This time around, their actual concern is different -- not how Pakistan may respond in times to come, push for terror acts, infiltration, cause greater disturbances in Jammu and Kashmir or how the international community would take it in due course but the move may become an emotional rallying point whereby people may choose to ignore Modi government's present and prospective failures.
There is, however, a rider if Modi stands true to his words and stays consistent on what he said on Independence Day and at the all-party meeting.

This is a little naive article
Foreign policy is done by the govt in power and not a political party

The geopolitical situation demands that the Indian state take a pro active approach to the situation

This is not connected to the internal politics inside India

The Indian State interest goes beyond internal politics

[svinayak]

Even with a large population, it can not be defended easily with it has a neighbour like a Pakistan. Just look at Afghans. Pak never allowed them to live in peace. Loss of this province is not an option to pakis. So once the problems there increase, Pak will try to go for a war with us now. They will think that their Islamic bomb will stop any serious aggression from us and loss of territory in our borders in the end.

Who knows NM and AD may be expecting Pak to act in that direction so that Pak can be destroyed as a threat to us. Further, a big win on Pak will ensure NM will continue as PM after 2019 and may be after 2024.

After 1971 Pak state, Pak army and Pak political party took a different course

The support from the super power during the cold war and the assistance during the afghan war resulted Pak taking a aggressive posture against Afghanistan and India for 25 years

After 911 the bubble has burst and Pak is isolated

[ramana]

During BRF shutdown I had some time to reflect on way ahead for BRF.
So many folks DMed me on twitter as to when BRF will come back up? It was amazing the reach of BRF.

Along with news and discussions we need to step up the game to become a think tank 2.0 i.e. DO tank.

We should be guided by 3A's: Analysis, Advocacy, & Action.

Its heartening that 10 years ago we started the Baluchistan thread and its now mainstream thanks to Namonamah!


All these pages show why Baluchistan has to become independent.
Next level is advocacy.
Please think in terms of how to make this case for Baluchistan.
3rd level is Action
Social Media gives us all chances to act.

----
Yagnasri, Let GOI worry about big picture items of how to do it.
Deejay has stated why its good for India even if there are no direct benefits.

[Yagnasri]

I am not worried Ramana Sir. Obviously, it was a well thought out action that has taken place from GOI. But how will it support and what kind of support it will give is the question. Support may be diplomatic, moral and political one. But it was not yet spelled out. May not be spelled out in so many words anytime soon. It is frist time a serious counter to paki moves on J&k for decades.

[ramana]

Read the other TL

[g.sarkar]

Another important pointer in terms of how long it has taken for this to come about. Just a small segment of timeline starting from '48: This thread started on 06th Sep 2006. PM Modi's statement came on 12th Aug 2016. The need has been felt for long and an Independent Balochistan is important in both freeing the people of Balochistan and India's neighbourhood becoming more secure.
Illusions that Baloch will become forever friends of all weather kind should not be formed. What is important is to understand is that a free Balochistan restricts Paki autonomy in terms of Sui Gas, Gawadar, other minerals and resources. Loss of Balochistan of course will hurt the TFTA H&D of the Pakjabi elite too. Militarily, Pakistan will have lost a large backyard (that is what it uses Balochistan as) and its access to Indian Ocean will have been curtailed. The advantage of Pakistan to China will have greatly reduced. Loss of Quetta for the purposes hosting "Good Taliban" will also hurt Pakistan and push the Talibunnies towards Punjab.
[/u][/b]
Finally, loss of Balochistan and POK may happen together (or so my Jingo mind thinks). That is another dimension and deserves a separate thread where we game the scenarios.

Pakistan has done what it could in J&K, but it was not enough to have any effect on Indian policy; and as it is weakening there is not much more it can do there. I can see more of the agitation that is going on in J&K, before it dies down. But it does not mean that India has a free hand in Baluchistan. Arming and training the Baloch is directly against Lizard's interests in building access in that area. We may see more movements in our Northern border. But China is also occupied in other areas to become fully active against India. Baluchistan will be a weak state, so even if they are not "stay forever friends", it will be made to appreciate whatever help India gives, just like Bangladesh.
Gautam

[arun]

Our Ministry of External Affairs response to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s complaint that our PM Narendra Modi’s comment on Baluchistan had crossed a “Red Line”.

As an aside is it not more Halal for an Islamic Republic and IEDological Muslim State to use “Green Line” rather than “Red Line”?

Question: On Baluchistan issue, Tariq Fatemi, special assistant to Pakistan’s PM has commented yesterday. He has said that Prime Minister Modi’s statement has crossed the redline and could in fact set back the relations between India and Pakistan to no-repairable measure. Just half an hour back Nafeez Zakaria has held a press conference in Pakistan where he has said that Jeetendra Singh, MoS PMO, has been speaking about POK again and again, is only against the UN resolution on Kashmir. How do you react to this?

Official Spokesperson, Shri Vikas Swarup: You have referred to the redlines. I find this an extraordinary remark from a senior functionary of Pakistan that recognizes no red lines in the conduct of its own diplomacy. Pakistan’s record of cross-border terrorism and infiltration is at the heart of the problems in the region today. This is not just India’s view, you can ask some other countries in the region as well.

From here:

Transcript of Weekly Media Briefing by Official Spokesperson (August 18, 2016)

[Gagan]

Pakistan needs a solid opportunity for introspection, specially its army. These guys will not stop their islamization, islamic superiority based delusions, and consequently terrorism in neighbouring nations unless they receive a solid jhapad.

Liberation of Balochistan will be one such opportunity. One can only imagine what horrors a frustrated Pakjabi army must be bringing upon the baloch! Bangladesh suffered this horror for much less an interval, but the baloch have been suffering for 70 long years!

I have been thinking about the absence of geographical contiguity of balochistan with India, and the challenges this will present. These are in no way insurmountable by a determined baloch people.

[rohitvats]

A note to BRFites - Strong policy to support Baluchistan is not possible w/o strong Afghanistan policy. Need to watch-out changes in policy on that front as well.

[Prem]

DId India demand Baluchistan Corridor in exchange for getting involved in Afghanistan ?

[Bheeshma]

Ask from whom? US was never keen on cutting down pakis despite mullah omar, osama and mansour being hidden there along with haqqanis.

[Prem]

Ask from whom? US was never keen on cutting down pakis despite mullah omar, osama and mansour being hidden there along with haqqanis.

From all parties, Afghanistan,Iran, UAE , WEST & Russia as none of them can handle the situation alone.

[Rishirishi]

This is not only about Balochistan. Also Sind want a free state as do the Pashtoons (who do not accept the Durand line drawn by the british). If all the provinces starts demanding "freedom" it will practically mean the end to Pakistan, just as it did for the USSR. The Pakistan armed forces will disintigrate. Punjabis are definately in majority but not strong enough to hold on to such large areas by force.

As for India it could work out well, but could potentially turn into a disaster, of it goes the Syria way.