Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2016 16:09

hezbollah and lebanese army is somewhat cleaning up these rats nests along the border incl the qalamoun mountains...this will relieve the latent threat to damascus metro region from other side.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 08:11

it seems the republican guard, ndf and hezbollah units have captured part of the rambling ramouseh military campus which has multiple colleges.
one college area is under their control and rest with the jihadi formations. casualties have been heavy in this affair, which started with the jihadis building up a 5:1 advantage in men and materials and govt unable to respond for lack of resources.....nusra was able to send artillery and armour from Idlib without helicopter gunships or bombers going at them and use the already occupied khan touman area as a launchpad.

syrians suffer very serious lack of massed artillery which is surprising for a soviet era war machine...it has been depleted badly over 5 years of endless war and massive resupply and retraining efforts are needed perhaps with chinese and russian advisers. russians can rebuild the air component also with refurbished Hinds and new build frogfoots & havocs like they do in Iraq.

tigers have relocated to hama and started work on beating back the new offensive.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 08:14

need to retain hasakeh-qamishli and deir azzor at all costs means several precious republican guard units are permanently tied down there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 08:18

hezbollah unit just before their successful assault on artillery college

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrOFzTCXEAAZZqr.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 08:20

recently the US govt donated artillery and hummers to the Lebanese govt , for whom hezbollah is a sort of quasi-military force attached to the lebanese army. but US and israel have also fought against hezbollah (last being 2006) and put them in terror list. the lebanon govt is also on good terms with assad and lets hezbollah move to and fro as they wish.

this is hard to understand ...

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 01 Sep 2016 11:25

South Aleppo:
1. SAA seems to have the Captured the Airforce Technical Base since 1-2 days
2. Artillery college is under rats and is where fight going on
3. the Military Base in southern part is also under rats i guess, but SAA should have fire control on it from Umm al Qara hill

North Hama:
2 more villages lost in last 24 hours to rats
Looks to be a mess for SAA, even thougho reinforcements arriving.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 11:31

the whole mess came because the unsupported iranians and afghans lost khan touman hill in april.

just like indian chiefs squabling among themselves over petty issues while a united green horde marched from the western borders , the russians, hezbollah , saa, iraqis and iranians are too argumentive indics for their own good

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 11:33

this time they need to retake khan touman which is where yellow line meets left border of picture and build up proper defensive lines, tank traps, bunkers etc to command the western countryside.

else the rats will again appear next month and attack a thin corridor from both sides.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 11:37

even the 1070 apts which are up on a hill is a good position to own, if proper defenses are built up. they are incomplete and abandoned and none live there anymore even as homeless.

in retrospect this is a tactical victory but strategic loss for the opposition, as they lost some 2000 fighters , lot of equipment for no permanent gain ... it will be hard for Muhaysni to recruit more fighters for a 2nd offensive to hammer the ramparts . Jarablous pays higher for less risky work ...

maybe thats why he is playing the shell game of attacking south in Hama to pull away reinforcements now in Aleppo...I think the terrain in Hama is not as guerilla friendly though.

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 01 Sep 2016 11:40

Yes,
there was disagreement in the Irani-afgani and the russians over command-control. The russians wanted to be in control so that Airstrikes could be co-ordinated with ground moves, but the irani-afgani guys rejected that and instead boasted that they could do well without russian bossing and even without air-cover, so russia stopped providing air-support to them.

Regarding Hizbollah-lebanon-US-israel is quiet like taliban-bakistan-US-Afganistan
main difference being Hizbollah and lebanon being far far far lesser shade of green than taliban and bakistan, and acting mostly in their own national interest and are on far better terms with rest of the world.

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 01 Sep 2016 11:53

If the rats advance across mazdal-marzaf villages, the terrain will become hilly and will be guerilla friendly, and will allow them to connect with the Hirbanafseh enclave(North Homs) Near Aqrab.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 01 Sep 2016 13:05

Singha. Thanks for the detailed writeups. My glaze when i look at those maps but the color coded info that you present, this is great.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 14:12

a chechen warlord abu bakr al shishani taking rest between fighting in hama. this unit is from the kavkaz front and usually these shishanis hang out in mountains of latakia.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrHsf1lXgAAEXup.jpg:large

habal · Post by **habal** » 01 Sep 2016 14:51

Shishani is nom-de-guerre for those chechens who hail from pankisi gorge in georgia. Apparently a lot of them emigrated to that side of georgian border when Russians came down hard on chechnya. the other inhabitants of this valley are recalciterant georgians who are also anti-everyone else. Now I am thinking what kind of vipers nest this pankisi gorge may be.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 15:17

its a tough place for sure. the Rus lost many soldiers in and around that den.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 16:51

group photo of a band of hama jihadis

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrAqUcqWcAA9ceB.jpg

3 of them look underage

habal · Post by **habal** » 01 Sep 2016 17:17

even jihadis are running out of manpower, hence resorting to child artistes. It is now a war of attrition. Maybe even a skirmish .. war is too strong a word for what is happening in hama.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 19:41

Hama is a distracting raid to threaten core civilian pop who are pro govt. So even if no strategic threat govt is forced to act.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2016 22:34

predictable - tigers partially left, so JAF back to gnawing at mallah farms...

Fatah Halab stormed the Syrian Arab Army’s positions from two different axes at Mallah Farms, taking advantage of the latter’s recent redeployment of several soldiers from the Tiger Forces to the Hama Governorate.

Despite the clear advantage in numbers, Fatah Halab has been unable to achieve any major break-throughs at the Kafr Hamra and Dahret ‘Abd Rabo axes; this is mostly due to the non-stop airstrikes from the Russian Air Force in northern Aleppo.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 02 Sep 2016 00:31

Syria had a formidable airforce, how much is left and what is it doing?

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 02 Sep 2016 00:47

Also this sort of urban fighting is prime candidate for massed 120mm mortar use and somehow rain of mortar shells also seems to be missing.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2016 11:37

syrian AF has a few modernized Mig29 , the rest is ancient Mig21 and Su22 and a few creaky Hind helis. none have any precision navigation or ground attack capability or even chaff and flares.

as a client state buildup proposal, Rus needs to consider:
- some high quality Pantsyr / Buk systems to protect vital areas from the Turks
- retire all but the Mig29 , beef it up with better A2G avionics and PGMs
- give them a new set of Mi28, Mi24 and Frogfoots and enough munitions and self defence measures
- for G2G moves, give them huge nos of 122mm, 130mm tubes, 120mm mortars, grads, uragans....quick and cheap way to beat back attacks
- observation helicopters like Mi17 and drones
- a factory to make shells for the same and guaranteed supplies for the rest from Noko/Norinco/Urals
- ELINT systems to monitor rebel comms and moves
- a couple of specialized Mi17 equipped with GMTI radar to monitor things at night and id the creeping rat movements ...
- a training system to train up recruits over 6 months intensively

its a big thing and 2 yr project even with resources poured into it.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2016 11:43

Al masdar news

Sana’a, Yemen (5:04 A.M.) – A SCUD missile fired by the Yemeni Republican Guard reportedly struck the Saudi city of Ta’if that is located approximately 700 km deep into the oil-dependent nation.

This military development is of massive significance because it implies that the Saudi capital of Riyadh is within the range of the Yemeni ballistic missiles, and may therefore change the trajectory of the Yemeni conflict further to the side of the Sana’a-based elected government of Yemen.

Al-Masira News Channel and official military sources have yet to confirm news of this rocket attack.

habal · Post by **habal** » 02 Sep 2016 12:24

Taif is right besides Mecca & Jeddah

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2016 13:08

Assad would so love to have 10K houthis on his team...super calm infantry who casually infiltrate and assault positions protected by abrams tanks and shiny western IFV.....very hard to spot in the bushes...they move slowly and wear clothing for the terrain...probably eat once a day before sunrise and can live on less water.

the captured saudi posts reveal a waste dump - 100s of plastic packets and bottled water lying around ... unkempt .... undisciplined....just urban dudes given a rifle and a weeks training and sent off to the border from comfortable camps in the back. they abandon ship with all hands at the first sign of trouble....houthi guy walks up to a tank a taps its hull with a stick...thats the signal to open all portholes and decamp

the victors then burn the tank casually with their usual death to amrika, death to joos war chants.

if not for helicopters and fighters the war would be much further inside saudia by now....

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 02 Sep 2016 21:43

Syria is also good candidate for Yell-Si-Ye export. And they will be happy with mark 1 as well.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2016 22:23

syaaf gazelle heli hit by a TOW in hama as it landed on exposed helipad

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2016 22:27

two arab militias liwa al tahrir and liwa al raqqa have defected from the SDF to turkish side after tensions and clashes with YPG...

american plans for Raqqa are starting to fall apart...

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 02 Sep 2016 22:46

There are rumors that Suhail Hassan(The Tiger) was on the downed gazelle helicopter.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:33

it was a very well laid ambush. the flat and clear terrain permitting a max range shot.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:40

Col Mohd Ali Habib of tiger forces and the other gazelle pilot/gunner killed in that strike per reports
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrYafQzUMAAwvlI.jpg

jihadis also beheaded two syrian soldiers captured in north hama.

in concert, ISIS launched attacks in Palmyra east and in eastern Homs Shaer gas fields trying to take advantage...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:41

agitpapa ‏@agitpapa 13h13 hours ago
agitpapa Retweeted ali ornek
Garib Hasso of the PYD says Barzani's Rojava Peshmerga are fighting the YPG.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:43

tweet from tiger forces member:

Yusha Yuseef ‏@MIG29_ 10h10 hours ago
The Tiger is ok , Tiger Forces advance now north #Hama

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:48

Thaer al thabat (nickname Al Hamza) of tiger force kia in aleppo a few days ago.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrJYhP9WEAAP_CH.jpg

he led the first infiltration group that reached the Kuweires airbase.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:49

in effect the coastal syrians of all religions are fighting the combined sunni jihadi cadre of iraq, syria, jordan, turkey, GCC, chechnya and all western countries who cared to join. jihadis are able to call on greater numbers of people willing to die for the cause. and endless money and weapons.

if not for russian intervention, damascus would have fallen by now.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 08:53

as in any long war, the old politically appointed desk jockey generals have proved to be useless....its relatively younger colonels and brigadiers who have risen from the ranks of individual contributors and taken charge to save the day from SVP/director types , like suheil al hassan and zahreddine...

back in WW1/spanish civil war era rommel and ewald von kleist were junior officers, yet they showed outstanding initiative and track record then too.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Sep 2016 11:10

my feeling is each trip by Saudi prince to pakistan is a requisition for more merceneries. Thousands of people living below poverty line willing to die anywhere for a few shekels.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 12:26

No evidence of paki jihadi or tribal mercs in yemen yet..mostly somali and sudanese with promise of good pay and citizenship at end of contract...let by european australian american and Colombian merc officers.

Saudis are buying the wing loong hale iav from china to monitor the vast border. Deal is signed.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Sep 2016 14:15

Saudis must be asking pakis .. "are they any goood" ?? cheeni maal any good ehh ?

btw the Russians woke up after the shootdown of the Gazelle, and are taking out rat atgm positions now.
http://sana.sy/en/?p=87001

Video footage of Yemeni missile strike on Al-Taif, Saudi Arabia released by broadcasting wing of hezbollah

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 14:26

Usa has likely withdrawn imint feed which used to tip the saudis off about yemeni missile units and movements in border tracts...after a long gap it is restarting.

Hence the quick wing loong gap filler deal