Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 22:15

Maybe muhaysni is also a high level turkish mole who sold nusra off

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 22:19

that's true. Aleppo is a death trap.

the second death trap is Hama which is just vast open plains. Running to Hama is plain foolhardiness.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 22:40

rats on the inside launch a new attack precedent by a VBIED

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 3h3 hours ago
Islamists detonate a VBIED and have launched assault on SAA in al-Amiriyah, Aleppo city

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 22:50

cute ideas from man who just escaped by hair's breadth

Turkey’s Erdogan Proposes Syria ‘No-Fly Zone’ to US, Russia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday he proposed setting up a no-fly zone in northern Syria to the US and Russia, after Ankara-backed fighters pushed the Islamic State (ISIS / Daesh / ISIL / IS) terrorist group from the border area. “We are working for this region to be declared no-fly zone,” Erdogan said at the G20 meeting in China, referring to the land extending from Jarabulus to Azaz in northern Syria seized from ISIS terrorists.
“This is my proposal to Mr. Putin and Mr. Obama,” he said; AFP reported.

Source: http://en.alalam.ir/news/1858532

Erdogan again calls for no fly zone, this time with Russian assistance????

http://www.yahoo.com/news/turkeys-erdog ... 48063.html

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 06 Sep 2016 00:37

possibly end game in syria has begun. Kurds will be the biggest losers not surprising as they are always fighting amongst themselves. I predict slow decline of western dadagiri around the globe. There will be many more battles to be fought but after what is happening in syria they are going to find it hard.

Lat year summertime I was relaxing on the board walk and a russian lady came and started a conversation. She had just returned from Russia and said everyone says Russia is a third world country with no future. I told her u stay with your leader Putin, he is brave and highly intelligent and on the side of what is right. He will be victorius in the end even though Russia may have to suffer in the meantime.Looks like that prediction is going to come true lot sooner than I thought.

Many moving pieces. I predict Trump is going to win in a landslide. Neocons and Jewrine syndicate will have a difficult ride. They are down but not out for sure. Attempted coup in Turkey, Trump,s popularity and Putin and Russian toughness these are all related to the outcome in Syria. I predict USA will loose power in the ME and Russia will come out stronger.

Lesson for India in all this . "Veer bhogya Vasundhara" age old Indian saying. Bravery, Intelligence and decisive leadership will win the day. Only time will tell but I do not see any other solution to our paki problem. Sooner or later India will have to attack and destroy pakistan and it,s nuclear arsenal and call their bluff. I do not see any other way this can and will end. More we delay worse it will get. Our spineless leaders should have destroyed pakistan,s nuclear program and it,s arsenal at the very beginning .Prepare and execute at the appropriate time sooner the better.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 06 Sep 2016 01:25

Syria is a very very small pawn in USA Game of thrones. USA is going to control all sides in Middle East and keep GCC as their Bitch for at least next 50 years.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 01:51

habal wrote: It wouldn't be wrong to say that in that room, it is oozing machismo from likes of Putin and then there are also rans like Obama, Erdogan etc.

As far as Erdogan's chutzpah is concerned, he doesn't have the staying power or the backup of his army to stay in Syria if SAA and Russia decide to drive him out of it. They are struggling to handle a restive kurd/alevi population who do not have air power or artillery with them. Syria is too much to deal for them, he will go when Putin asks him to go. Or else his 90 kms border will be blasted out and he will lose all coup victimhood goodwill by running his troops (whatever is left) in a foreign sovereign country.

Dunno how you see machismo oozing outta Putin unless you have been soaking in his naked chest fotos.
Erdogan had the balls to shoot down a Russian plane. Kill a Russian serviceman. Failed to see him blasted out by macho Putin. All that macho Putin did was to claim that turkey was supporting Isis. Some sanctions etc etc.
Erdogan supported Isis, supported various Islamist factions in Syria and still comes on top. He set the red lines. No YPG west of Euphrates. And now he has followed his words with military action. Acquired territory and a good visa deal with EU, plus billions of dollars.

He will go when Putin asks him to go.

Thats laughable at best.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 02:14

Kurds have stood up and fought against ISIS. Russians and Americans are bombing from air. Now that the Kurds are being attacked by Islamist big brother Erdogan, macho Putin and superpower America are looking elsewhere.
If this is not duplicity then I dunno what is.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 08:07

Erdogan had the balls to shoot down a Russian plane. Kill a Russian serviceman. Failed to see him blasted out by macho Putin. All that macho Putin did was to claim that turkey was supporting Isis. Some sanctions etc etc.

& when he went to moscow and waited for Mr. Putin in an ante-room for an hour, were his balls kept back home in Turkey ? The coup was real, it was exposed by Russian & Iranian intelligence a few days before it was actually supposed to take place and that was what spoiled the coup.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 08:08

you cannot survive at the big boys table with any shred of morals. you do whatever needs to get done to keep your seat.

so let us forget the notion that any of the P5 are more dharmic than the other. they pursue their own interests...at certain points if that looks dharmic , thats a unintended bonus.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 06 Sep 2016 08:19

Agree with u singha but there has to be some degree of ethics and order in international relations otherwise it will be the law of the jungle like it has been over the last 50 years or so under US domination. They have acted like a mafia don where might is right.I hope humans have made some progress from those days .

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 08:22

pakistan has killed US servicemen so many times in Afghanistan, directly and through proxies, what has usa done about it. They have the capability to finish pakistan, so why don't they ? And why do they keep meeting them by sending Kerry, Petraeus, mcmullen etc. Just blast them out of the way and walk with a swagger no ! After all the usa apologists keep reminding us how powerful they are and are very very big players with Syria, Ukraine very very small play in their grand scheme.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 08:23

US Peace Council returns from Syria: Reports country fighting an 'invasion by the most powerful country in the world' (make sure you watch the video there)

https://www.sott.net/article/327342-US- ... he-worldUS

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 08:25

Statement Made By İsmail Cem, Foreign Minister, On The Special Security Meeting Held Between Turkey And Syria October 20, 1998 (Unofficial Translation)

http://www.mfa.gov.tr/_p_statement-made ... _p_.en.mfa

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 08:26

RUSSIA, SYRIA, AND TURKEY HAVE AGREED ON JOINT OPERATIONS IN SYRIA

http://katehon.com/article/russia-syria ... ions-syria

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 08:29

ruaf+saa adjusted their tactics to precisely what they should have been at Colleges.

From many more men attacking all at once, from multiple axis and entry points to coordinating closely with AF; which did some beautiful work around; utilizing high yield PGM's and penetrating bombs. They even brought TOS-1A

Enjoy: https://twitter.com/bm27_uragan

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 09:13

SAA sniper @ work

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d94_1473041214

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 11:03

a small rus unit of around 150 and a few BTR that arrived via castello road last week might have acted as the fwd air observers for this phase.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 11:16

are the turkish militias pressing south to Al-bab or happy with a narrow 10km belt on the border (their original demand)

if they want 10km, the YPG could still capture the rest and link up to Afrin cantonment albeit they will have to crush the azaz pocket or seek access via Aleppo city to Afrin area.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 11:43

Analysis of Turkey's goals for invading Syria:

http://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror ... d-in-syria

1. 100 x 50 km "safe zone" which will be used to establish a functioning opposition government

2. Defeat of Kurdish project on Turkey's border

3. Preserving "Turkey's connection to Aleppo" and the middle east...

4. Negotiate the future of Syria as a party at the table

5. They claim to be fighting ISIS and other terrorists, but they are allies of both ISIS and other terrorists so this is a major lie.

They have always wanted Aleppo and to launch their Greater Turkmenli project extending to Kirkuk. This could be step one.

Greater Turkmenli maps:
West Turkemenli:
http://www.turkomania.org/en/wp-content ... s-map2.jpg

With East Turkemenli depicted:
http://www.ulkuocaklari.org.tr/wp-conte ... ita-11.jpg

In Syrian context, Turkey will be tolerated as long as Aleppo, ISIS create a nuisance, and after that if Kurds, SAA, Rus, Iran turn on Turkey they will have no option but to pack up and fold. But for that to happen Kurds will have to abandon USA.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 11:47

>> 100 x 50 km "safe zone" which will be used to establish a functioning opposition government

50km would include al-bab and manbij as well. no wonder the YPG is fortifying manbij 10 levels deep in operation zitadelle mode and given up all thought of turning on raqqa for now. they have been sitting 40km north of raqqa for a year now.

if turkey sends its tanks and SP guns to support a manbij offensive though, the kurds cannot hold out without US air support.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 11:50

some points to ponder:

"In 2010 oil in great quantities was found under Syria. Off the Syrian coast, 14 new fields with a total recoverable volume of 37 billion tons of oil were discovered. To show the scale of this, the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia amounted to about 36 billion, Iraq has 15.7 billion tons, Kuwait has 4.28 billion tons and the UAE, 14 billion tons. Even more, the depth of these fields is about 250 meters. This is very shallow and means that the cost of extraction will be very low. Less than a year after this discovery, the “spontaneous” protests against Assad broke out."

http://katehon.com/article/russian-forc ... ing-empire

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 11:54

its called the resources curse. a lot of weak govts around the world who own rich resources have fallen victim to western sponsored games.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 12:00

A US-Fueled Syrian Sectarian Bloodbath - August 31, 2016

The Obama administration helped fuel a conflict in Syria that inevitably was going to degenerate into a sectarian bloodbath, a reckless strategy pushed by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as Gareth Porter explains.

By Gareth Porter

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/08/31/a ... bloodbath/

The main criticism of U.S. policy in Syria has long been that President Barack Obama should have used U.S. military force or more aggressive arms aid to strengthen the armed opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.

The easy answer is that the whole idea that there was a viable non-extremist force to be strengthened is a myth – albeit one that certain political figures in London and Washington refuse to give up.

But the question that should have been debated is why the Obama administration acquiesced to its allies funding and supplying a group of unsavory sectarian armed groups to overthrow the Assad government.

That U.S. acquiescence is largely responsible for a horrible bloodletting that has now killed as many as 400,000 Syrians. Worse yet, there is still no way to end the war without the serious threat of sectarian retribution against the losers.

The Obama administration bears responsibility for this atrocity, because it could have prevented Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia from launching their foolishly adventurous war in Syria. None of them did so out of desperate need; it was a war of choice in every case.

And each of the three states is part of the U.S. security system in the Middle East, providing military bases to NATO or to the United States and depending on US support for its security.

But instead of insisting that those three Sunni allies reconsider their options, the Obama administration gave the green light at a conference in Riyadh at the end of March 2012 for proceeding with arming those who wanted to replace the regime, leaving the United States ostensibly free to be a peacemaker.

As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put it at the Riyadh conference: “Some will be able to do certain things, and others will do other things.”

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 12:11

Syrian Army makes huge gains in southern Aleppo

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrlIofCWAAAkMwi.jpg

Aleppo, Syria (11:40 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued their large-scale offensive in southern Aleppo on Monday, targeting the hilltops located near the recently captured Artillery Academy.

Led by the Tiger Forces and Hezbollah, the government units managed to capture Shurfah Hill, Shurfah village, SyriaTel Hill, the Air Defense Base, Baradat Factory, Maqala’ Hill, Al-Zayout village, Musharifah village, Oil Factory, and Shurfah Quarries after a violent battle with the jihadist rebels of Jaysh Al-Fateh (Army of Conquest) this morning.

This massive advance on Monday morning has paved the way for the Syrian Armed Forces to surround the strategic Al-Ramouseh District and 1070 Al-Hamdaniyah Housing Project, which are still contested.

The 1070 Housing Project is expected to fall once the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies seize the Hikmah School that sits atop of this once densely populated district in southern Aleppo.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 12:15

Sharmine Narwani @ Twittter:

The deal between turkey and Russia is playing out. Separation of forces is happening. Jihadi union plan cracking, many factions left to join Turkey umbrella in the North. Factions staying in Aleppo will be considered "terrorists" to kill. Turkey's focus is to clear W. of Euphrates, keeping its militants under a long ceasefire. Aleppo is now for Syrian allies to take. Rebels are dismantling, shifting patrons. Look at Daraaya, Ghouta. Once separation of forces complete, AQ will be destroyed, Turkey's militants stay W. of Euphrates, everyone piles in on ISIS, to be followed by negotiations with some form of opposition including Turkey allied militants. Assad will stay. Kurds will remain E. of Euphrates, but kurdish entity won't be accepted by any party. Kurds took a gamble with U.S. and lost.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 13:52

habal wrote:
Erdogan had the balls to shoot down a Russian plane. Kill a Russian serviceman. Failed to see him blasted out by macho Putin. All that macho Putin did was to claim that turkey was supporting Isis. Some sanctions etc etc.
& when he went to moscow and waited for Mr. Putin in an ante-room for an hour, were his balls kept back home in Turkey ? The coup was real, it was exposed by Russian & Iranian intelligence a few days before it was actually supposed to take place and that was what spoiled the coup.

When Putin visited Turkey in 2014, did he wait in Anteroom?! Did he leave his balls in moscow.
You seem to be privy to some real sensitive intelligence news.

Anyone who does not drool over Putin`s bare chest fotos becomes an american apologist.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 14:02

Singha wrote:you cannot survive at the big boys table with any shred of morals. you do whatever needs to get done to keep your seat.

so let us forget the notion that any of the P5 are more dharmic than the other. they pursue their own interests...at certain points if that looks dharmic , thats a unintended bonus.

Its not about morals. Its about lack of foresight.
Turkey has serious differences with Armenia. A long history of violence with Russia. Clearly evident in the plane shoot down incident.
Erdogan is an islamist. Has grand delusions. Including the ones related to central asia. Recently has been involved in arming radical islamist terrorists in Syria.
And here is Putin dying to drive Turkey away from US led alliance. And willing to sacrifice a clear strategic resource like the YPG despite recent spat.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 14:11

Bhurishravas wrote:
Anyone who does not drool over Putin`s bare chest fotos becomes an american apologist.

don't drool over him, but give him respect for what he did ! he prevented an american-sponsored genocide in Syria, which would have finished off the minorities of that nation. He also checkmated the americans on Ukraine, with some nimble footwork. Credit where credit's due. Nothing more, nothing less. If not for him, nobody would have intervened in US-sponsored genocide anywhere. It's a first time since fall of FSU that a global leader has had the chutzpah to grab the cat by it's b~~ell~~all.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 14:21

And so I have appreciated Russian policy in both Syria and Ukraine. But the first time you call a spade a spade you become an american apologist.
Erdogan doesnt give two hoots about russia or US. If Putin thinks, he can play him, he is in for a nice surprise.
Erdogan doesnt care about US concerns regarding turkish support to ISIS or US concerns regarding turkish violence against the kurds.
When Russia bombed the turkmen fundamentalists in Syria, he shot down the plane and also declared that it was `he` who ordered the shooting down. When things started going wrong, he went to Putin again. He will change, grovel, weep, and stab in the back when opportunity arises.
And that is why Imho, Putin has been played.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 14:54

Erdogan did what he did with NATO support. But there is a catch there, the problem is whosoever is supported by US is ultimately backstabbed by them as well. The only exception to that dictum is the settler state. Without NATO support Erdogan is nothing, he is fighting for his life.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 15:06

habal wrote:Erdogan did what he did with NATO support. But there is a catch there, the problem is whosoever is supported by US is ultimately backstabbed by them as well. The only exception to that dictum is the settler state. Without NATO support Erdogan is nothing, he is fighting for his life.

Yaar, too much US/Nato, US/Nato. Erdogan supported ISIS and hamas with nato support?! Erdogan is jailing opposition with US/Nato support?! Erdogan is killing kurds with Nato support. ?! Everything evil in the world is done with US/NAto support?!
Erdogan is a nobody. Yeah. Yeah

. Agreed.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 15:08

>>Erdogan supported ISIS and hamas with nato support?

Yes.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 15:09

I dont think Erdogan is a core islamist. but most willing to use islamists for his political and economic goals.

he is the levantine Kejriwal + Niku + Laloo ( opportunists to the core) && a shade of iron fisted SG

he is trying to put in place the political apparatus to rule Turkiye for next few decades and uproot both the gulenists and kemalists , who came in decades ago.

US has no leverage over him as turkiye is not a economic basket case like TSP or very dependent on US aid like israel.

russias main lever would be the threat to arm the PKK and YPG , using armenia to funnel such aid too. this can create a lot of trouble in the eastern provinces. carrot is trade and tourism.

assads main carrot is the buffer zone he has grabbed and the threat of arming the YPG if he oversteps the agreed upon goals.

everyone has a gun pointed at each other.

odd man out seems like the US which has faded from the scene as a mover and shaker....rest have worked out their arrangements. iran and turkey both agreed to suppress the kurds.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 15:18

>>US has no leverage over him as turkiye is not a economic basket case like TSP or very dependent on US aid like israel.

I think they had leverage over him before their interests diverged, & it was the threat of a coup sponsored by NATO. There are too many malcontents around Turkey, Gulen, Kurds, Alevis, Kamalists/moderates. Anyone of them could be activated leading to coup.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 15:19

iraqis seem to have played their cards well - achieved the feat of being on good terms with iran, russia, usa (getting aid from all 3) and turkey and syria as well.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Sep 2016 15:21

word in street in libya is the pro-tripoli forces now fighting ISIS are exhausting themselves while the GCC sponsored "Khalifa" leading some other army sits on the coast and waits for its chance when the other two sides are destroyed.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 15:23

Erdogan is not a core islamist?! He banned alcohol when he was the mayor. His speeches are laced with Islamic rhetoric.At least they used to be. He supported muslim brotherhood against Sisi in Egypt. He supports Pakistan and espouses muslim unity.
US influence has gone down. But if that is the only goal of Russian foreign policy not withstanding islamic terrorism then what was that cooperation against ISIS all about.
Then why would i go around supporting Russian foreign policy if its the same/similar as US foreign policy.

How will YPG/PKK be armed in future when they are allowed to be murdered now.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Sep 2016 15:25

habal wrote:>>Erdogan supported ISIS and hamas with nato support?

Yes.

Nato supports hamas against Israel. Hmmm.
Thank you very much for your time.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2016 15:32

Khan Touman looks directly onto the plains of Idlib.
they are looking to make short work of it, Khan Touman is the resting pad for Nusra Chechens amongst other recalciterants.

Hezbollah, Syrian Army attack Khan Touman in southern Aleppo - link to Al-Masdar News

Excerpt: "Not long after launching their assault on the Al-Ramouseh District in southern Aleppo, the Syrian Armed Forces and Hezbollah conducted a swift assault near the key town of Khan Touman."