In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

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In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack, I believe GOI will take the following action:

1) Lot of hot air and bleating but no visible action in the foreseeable future.
81
43%
2) Heavy shelling of PA positions across LoC, but no more
28
15%
3) Significant covert strikes on select targets deep inside Pakistan.
57
30%
4) Significant covert + conventional (IBG, IN, IAF) strikes deep inside Pakistan
19
10%
5) Aar-paar ki ladai
2
1%
 
Total votes: 187

Rudradev
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In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 19 Sep 2016 23:58

In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack, I believe GOI will take the following action:

KJo
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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby KJo » 20 Sep 2016 00:00

Wow, ,there is 1 member who thinks we will do aar paar ki ladai :shock:

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 00:01

From his mouth to the gods' ears

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 00:02

NOTE: The question is not what you HOPE the GOI will do. It is what you BELIEVE the GOI will do.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 00:07

GoI will do local action under IAF cover, and then covert attacks in Pakjab
The pot will be stirred even more in the 3 states.
These things will go on for like a few months at least
This is going to be a very difficult time for bad sharif

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby darshhan » 20 Sep 2016 00:08

Rudradev ji, what is the timeline? I mean if you give 3-4 years anything is possible. If you say next 2 months, then options are pretty limited. Please clarify.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 00:09

For argument's sake let us say until the Winter Session of Indian Parliament (Dec 2016). If nothing is done till then, even the most anti-national of political parties can use it as an issue to skewer the government and derail the session.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby venug » 20 Sep 2016 00:22

We want to internationally isolate TSP. We want to isolate a nation which lives on grass to make nukes. So international isolation will certainly hurt TSP, the way it hurts Noko. Very good move. We made right noises in UNSC, this time shriller than before. Without even referring to any news item, I can also say we might have re-re-re-reiterated "Kashmir bharat ka atoot ang hain". We already said muh thod jawab dhenge. So I consider the matter ends here.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby saurav_jha » 20 Sep 2016 00:31

Where is the option to review IWT and block water during farming season ? Seems most likely and most effective option.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby darshhan » 20 Sep 2016 00:31

voted no 3

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby darshhan » 20 Sep 2016 00:32

saurav_jha wrote:Where is the option to review IWT and block water during farming season ? Seems most likely and most effective option.


I doubt if they really give a fukk for their farmers or agriculture in general

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 00:36

saurav_jha wrote:Where is the option to review IWT and block water during farming season ? Seems most likely and most effective option.

Problem with this is, we will have a very weak case if the PRC does the same thing with rivers originating in Tibet on which parts of India depend for water supply. Of course, they might do it anyway... but it would set a precedent if we undertake such an action as a punitive measure against Pakistan.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby chetak » 20 Sep 2016 00:41

Our polity has different types of Nindas: less than 10 die sakth ninda,

10-50 Ghor ninda, 50-100 kadi ninda, >100 kadi de kadi ninda!

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Atmavik » 20 Sep 2016 01:49

darshhan wrote:
saurav_jha wrote:Where is the option to review IWT and block water during farming season ? Seems most likely and most effective option.


I doubt if they really give a fukk for their farmers or agriculture in general



Coupta has this tweet pinned but does not provide any details

Shekhar Gupta ‏@ShekharGupta 15h
To make Pak pay for terror, a punishment strictly within Indus Waters Treaty was designed by Vajpayee CCS. Yashwant Sinha shd know about it

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Dipanker » 20 Sep 2016 05:51

Rudradev wrote:
saurav_jha wrote:Where is the option to review IWT and block water during farming season ? Seems most likely and most effective option.

Problem with this is, we will have a very weak case if the PRC does the same thing with rivers originating in Tibet on which parts of India depend for water supply. Of course, they might do it anyway... but it would set a precedent if we undertake such an action as a punitive measure against Pakistan.


They already did in case of Tsangpo ( Brahmaputra ).

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 06:46

It is not my business to try and explain to people why the government(s) have not hit back on several past occasions. It is also not incumbent on anybody to read this or even believe it but my mind keeps gnawing at the question basically telling me,"I am intelligent, logical and analytical and I think Pakistan should be punished. Are the government stupid and cowardly"

These thoughts have gone through my mind so many times now that ultimately I am forced into considering the possibility that the govt has some information or plan that I have not thought of. I have to rationalize and invent things that comfort myself - so let me state a few of those things

Going back to 1965 the war appeared like it was brewing from April when Paki forces actually entered the Rann on Kutch. Infiltraotors were dropped into Kashmir in August and by August there was enough hot action on the border that suggested impending war

Going back to 1971 - the Bangladesh issue was brewing from late 1970. It really blew up in March 1971 with the start of the genocide by the killing of people at Dhaka university. March 1971 was 9 months before a hot war (December) but from March onwards, East Pakistan was always in the news as were refugee camps and the emissaries that Indy Gandhi sent out and her own visits to foreign capitals to appeal for action against the genocide and help with refugees. The action of shooting down Sabres at Boyra took place in November - 2-3 weeks before the actual war.

I feel that India will not enter any war out of which it cannot emerge with a clear conclusion. This may require months or years of building up international support while getting hit. This happened in 1965 and 1971 - but the "hits" in 65 and 71 were more blatant. Pakistan tanks were actually inside Indian territory in April 1965 and overflights of aircraft were commonplace. The other thing would e to work towards making the Paki army weaker by adding pressure in their West. We may see this happen.

The entire world expected India to hit back after 26/11. We did not. Retaliation was expected after Pathankot. Nothing happened - it was actually an unexpectedly tame whimper. Now again - I expect nothing will happen. I am certain that Indian Intel agencies will have been monitoring Pakistan, and I am certain that in the aftermath of Uri - Pakistan will have all its air defences on high alert - waiting for an Israel style instant retaliation. I am equally certain that Pakistan has prepared for retaliation after every atrocity they commit. Why would Pakistan provoke and expect retaliation. I suspect that they would gain some advantage from an Indian retaliation.

What are the possible "advantages" to Pakistan that can be scraped up from a short sharp Indian retaliation
  • Linking and "Indian attack" to Kashmir and blaming India for attacking Pakistan because of inability to handle the "independence struggle" in Kashmir
  • Instant condemnation of India from multiple international quarters and calls for restrain
  • Instant condemnation of warmonger Modi from internal opposition Malinis, Ayyubs, Dutts, Thapars, Aiyers, Manishs, Dogvijays, Yechuris and the BigBindiBrigade. Pakistan knows that these people will react in this manner - they all have Paki stamps on their passports and the stains of paki lipstick/scent adhering to their skins from past hospitality
  • If there is no action there is intense political pressure from Modi/BJP supporters calling him napunsak, Congress, coward etc
  • Internal morale boosting that they are "strong" and able to hold India back
  • Resumption of aid from sources that are gradually drying up

In the long term it is Pakistan that must be folded up. The US aon't gonna do it. And China will try and stop it. But that is India's duty, without simultaneously committing soosai

So I believe a short sharp retaliation may be of no use. I will close by reposting stuff from Christine Fair grabbed from my Kindle and posted on Twitter
Image
Image

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 07:02

Lt Gen Ata Hasnain
http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/commen ... 97313.html
What options do we really have? Firstly, a hot pursuit kind of operation across the LoC has always been the favorite of the strategic community without identification of terrorist facilities. If it’s the Pakistan army that has to be targeted, then we need to be sure that there will be response and an escalation. Secondly, if it is just the abrogation of the ceasefire, then LoC duels can be played out by both, although we do have advantage at most places. Is it in our interest to escalate and draw attention of the international community to an issue which it is tending to largely ignore? That is a moot point for the consideration of the political authority. Thirdly, the public may not find the more prudent and smarter ways of retribution easily acceptable with consequent effect on the reputation of the government and the leadership. However, what Mr Modi commenced with his reference to Baluchistan in the Independence Day speech may just be the appropriate steps to ratchet up the response.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Manish_Sharma » 20 Sep 2016 07:28

After Uri – nothing! Why? Because…
Posted on September 19, 2016 by Bharat Karnad

The situation after the daring terrorist attack on the army Special Forces camp in Uri is a symptom of a basic malady of the Indian government’s and the Indian military’s inability to come to grips with reality that the State is in full-fledged covert war with Pakistan. Have always maintained that Pakistan, as an equal legatee of the doctrine of ‘kutayuddha’ (covert warfare) expounded in the Arthashastra, is a far more adept practitioner of this form of asymmetric conflict than India has ever been

This is so, I have argued in my writings and books (especially ‘Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy’) because Pakistan (like Israel) enjoys a very small “margin of error” and therefore is more proactive where national security is concerned, as its safety rests on keeping the bigger, better endowed, adversary unbalanced with strategems and tactics, such as periodic attacks on the latter’s military capabilities, less to hurt them grievously than to keep the enemy permanently unsettled. Whence, the seaborne terrorist infiltrators striking at shoreline hotels in Mumbai in 2008 rather than taking out the bulk of the Western Fleet then at anchor a short distance away, in other words doing a “Pearl Harbour”. It reflected and still does as the Uri incident shows, a fine-tuned Pakistani strategic sensibility — provoke India sufficiently to make a point but not so much as to trigger a war that would cost Pakistan plenty.

The main problem is Indian rulers’ traditional-historic complacent attitude nurtured by geography that there’s so much landmass to withdraw to that, as in the present case, NSA Ajit Doval’s “offensive DEFENCE” is always feasible. Any time DEFENCE is propagated in any guise, it is a guarantee of do-nothingism. India’s record bears this out.

The Vajpayee regime’s decision to do nothing after the terrorist attack in December 2001 on Parliament — the symbol of sovereignty, mind you, and the attack on the Kaluchak camp in the midst of the “general mobilization for war” (Op Parakram), other than mumble appropriate retribution, which has ever since become the stock non-response of GOI and haas never been prosecuted, a wrong signal was sent out to the Pakistan Army. It confirmed GHQ Rawalpindi’s long harboured assessment of ‘Hindu Lala’ India as too cowardly and callow to respond decisively, even when international law and the UN charter completely legitimated retaliation as an act of “self-defence”. (Article 51 states: “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations”.)

Terrorist strikes have thereafter been launched periodically and with increasing impunity (Pathankot in January this year, and now Uri), with New Delhi each time reacting in the same manner: there’s a muffled threat to hit Pakistan at a time of India’s choosing, there’s the attempt by GOI — that will fail — to garner international support in order to “isolate” Pakistan, and a sudden burst of activity in terms of intensively manning military posts in J&K, etc., and once the temper cools and the ardour for action lost, things settle down to the usual. This leads one to wonder what the Indian Army units believe their role in J&K is exactly — considering there’s no effective perimeter security worth the name around their own encampments and depots — the minimum one would expect.

It reflects the complacency now deeply entrenched even, and especially, in the Indian armed services. How else to explain the fact that the security at military bases is so lax and that too in J&K — a live area of military operations — despite the continued threat from terrorists and, hence, an open invitation to any armed group to saunter into any camp, open fire, and repeatedly inflict an appalling exchange ratio — three terrorists finishing off 17 Para-commandos at Uri. 17 supposedly Special Forces troops!!! Oh, sure, the para-commando elements held as Northern Army reserve, will now wear their black patkas, daub black paste under their eyes, and go out on night-time retaliatory kill/destroy culvert here, blow up a bridge there missions, even as intended targets — the LeT and JeM camps and their inhabitants have been moved to safety to hinterland areas. And there the matter will rest. Until the next attack terrorist incident.

In the wake of Pathankot, the AOC was transferred — presumably, with no ill effects on his forward career progress, and this time the commander, Uri SF, will likewise be relocated. This will about sum up India’s reaction!

In the civil society meanwhile there are the predictable noises about the need for forbearance and measured response or, at the other ideological end, there’s the RSS General Secretary Ram Madhav — the Modi government’s go-to-guy for foreign policy advice, spouting vengeance and demanding Pakistani “jaw” for an Indian tooth, but being satisfied with the PM’s promise of severe action. Will wait and see what this action will be but be advised to not hold your breath.

The reason why Vajpayee did not order immediate retaliation — of an aerial strike on PoK targets in 2001, and Modi won’t do so now is because — you guessed it — our new found friend, ally, and strategic partner — the United States of America, which does not tolerate even the slightest terrorist provocation itself but is ready to counsel patience and conciliation on friends, and back it up with punitive means. If there’s any doubt that Washington will not countenance a violent and telling Indian military reaction, New Delhi should see what happens if Modi girds up his loins and actually orders massive and lesson-teaching military actions. But, of course, GHQ-R has covered that (nonexistent) possibility. It will indicate movement of nuclear missiles, which will be enough to freeze Modi in his tracks amidst the media hub-hub for caution, which the PM will use as pretext for doing nothing. Remember the previous BJP govt’s succumbing to “public opinion” to negotiate with the Indian Airline flight IA 814 Afghan Taliban hijackers in December 1999? New Delhi will once again be satisfied with the US wagging its finger at Islamabad, which will be heralded as a great diplomatic victory for a “responsible” power — India. One can imagine the Pak Army brass rolling around in mirth.

In the event, stirring calls for action such as by the well-meaning retired Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal as per his “four pronged” strategy (http://www.rediff.com/news/column/time- ... 160918.htm ) involving aerial strikes on PoK targets, covert ops against Pak Army capabilities and military infrastructure, but continued engagement with the civilian leadership and civil society in Pakistan amount to nothing more than the usual knee-jerk “do something” plea whose operative parts GOI will feel free to ignore.

https://bharatkarnad.com/

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby RoyG » 20 Sep 2016 07:47

The same could be said about East Germany.

The HVA was running circles around NATO but at as the years went they saw diminishing returns on their investment.

Arthashastra places the greatest emphasis on identity, bureaucratic efficiency, and economic progress.

The world including India is entering a very heated high technology race. What the hell is Pakistan going to do?

They are being choked before our eyes and the Chinese can't do anything about it.

What is CPEC going to do in the long run? The Chinese don't have an appetite for being bogged down in foreign conflict.

They do sucker punches to knock you off balance and then retreat.

We have the right leadership now. You can knock on PMO all you want but it is dedicated to safeguarding the long term national interest.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 08:09

RoyG wrote:They are being choked before our eyes and the Chinese can't do anything about it.

What is CPEC going to do in the long run? The Chinese don't have an appetite for being bogged down in foreign conflict.

What tickles me here is that postponing a response to a "later date" leaves the CPEC work hanging under threat forever. Once we lay claim on PoK and claim that we will respond whenever we want - we are actually sitting on moral high ground for what it is worth. Anything we do in future can be claimed as individual or commective revenge for Kaluchak, Pathankot, Kargil whatever

The other thing that interests me is that this attack was a deliberate provocation for which most nations would respond and I am certain Pakistan was expecting some Indian response - esp with Modi at the top and "Hindu extremists" supporting him against hapless ickle PakiMoslems. With the Hindu fundamentalists not responding as expected - the best the Pakis can get is to try and provoke by calling them cowards. But the Paki army know that "cowardice" is at best a weak provocation and that India is militarily strong enough to kick Paki ass - so a non reaction is a problem. I suspect Pakistanis expected that a reaction would be advantageous to them - even at the risk of a short conflict. No retaliation from India is more of a problem to explain away - given the uncertainty that a response "could" come at any time in future when Pakistan itself is undergoing some unusual stress.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Singha » 20 Sep 2016 08:18

Yawn. Double yawn. Zzzzz

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby habal » 20 Sep 2016 08:24

shall i wager what response will be this time.

blocking indus headworks for 15-20 days thus stunting pakjab's kharif crop.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby RoyG » 20 Sep 2016 08:33

shiv wrote:
RoyG wrote:They are being choked before our eyes and the Chinese can't do anything about it.

What is CPEC going to do in the long run? The Chinese don't have an appetite for being bogged down in foreign conflict.

What tickles me here is that postponing a response to a "later date" leaves the CPEC work hanging under threat forever. Once we lay claim on PoK and claim that we will respond whenever we want - we are actually sitting on moral high ground for what it is worth. Anything we do in future can be claimed as individual or commective revenge for Kaluchak, Pathankot, Kargil whatever

The other thing that interests me is that this attack was a deliberate provocation for which most nations would respond and I am certain Pakistan was expecting some Indian response - esp with Modi at the top and "Hindu extremists" supporting him against hapless ickle PakiMoslems. With the Hindu fundamentalists not responding as expected - the best the Pakis can get is to try and provoke by calling them cowards. But the Paki army know that "cowardice" is at best a weak provocation and that India is militarily strong enough to kick Paki ass - so a non reaction is a problem. I suspect Pakistanis expected that a reaction would be advantageous to them - even at the risk of a short conflict. No retaliation from India is more of a problem to explain away - given the uncertainty that a response "could" come at any time in future when Pakistan itself is undergoing some unusual stress.


Haha, I'm reminded of Muhammad Ali. Let em throw the punches until they tire themselves out. Then deliver the knock out blow.

You do have to land a few licks in between though Shiv. Gotta convince the crowd to stay till the end.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 08:35

All bets are off now.
For the first time in 70 yrs, India is demanding that Pak vacate POK, calling them terrorists.
There is a change in tenor, one can expect that response which will be overt, covert, diplomatic, economic, subversive, will all occur endlessly.

The right combination of people are at the helm.

No other country has faced the kind of mortal enemy that India faces. There are no precedences to the way India should act. Pakistan has to be cut down in size.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 08:36

I think the only near term response that we will hear about will be "winning support" at the UN.

Modi will come under intense pressure from his own supporters with jibes about 56 inch chest, and of course the opposition will also make hay. But my personal observation of Modi's political thrust is to wipe away all allegations that he is a mindless Islam hating hawk who will call for an attack on Pakistan and get India into a war.

He did something similar in Gujarat where he had less national stature but equally intense or worse pressure to pull him down. If Modi does something about Pakistan I predict that it will be a situation
1. Where Modi can't be slammed as being anti-Pakistani
2. A definite outcome will have to be shown from any action taken

Unfortunately Atalji faced a problem in 1999 after having come to power as jing Hindu. He did a Lahore, and got Kargil but his response could not be blamed as being anti-Muslim or anti-Pak even though the opposition were saying the same things about Hindutva back then. But Atalji was checkmated by circumstances and Pakistan after IC 814 - and his actions have directly led to the current crisis.

Vajpayee had one advantage in 1999 - because Pakistanis came in large numbers and sat in Indian territory - so there was a goal for retaliation. Other than "hitting something" I can't see what Modi can do. Hot air is the only alternative and I voted for that

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Dilbu » 20 Sep 2016 08:44

I have resigned to the fact that BRF types are dreaming things. No matter who comes to power India will drag its feet when it comes to any meaningful action. BRF remains the last pocket of resistance with such punitive ideas when it comes to TSP. Rest have already moved on.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Dilbu » 20 Sep 2016 08:47

Modi-Doval team will lose face in a major way if they sit quiet like MMS. that might be the only argument for some kind of strike against pak. Pak will be waiting for it and it might do more harm than good for India anyway.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 09:18

Dilbu wrote:Modi-Doval team will lose face in a major way if they sit quiet like MMS. that might be the only argument for some kind of strike against pak. Pak will be waiting for it and it might do more harm than good for India anyway.

Pak will definitely be waiting for a counter strike. By itself that does not mean that we should not strike - but instant reactions simply do not occur. We are an introspecting bunch. We must win over ourselves before winning over others

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 20 Sep 2016 09:21

x-post
SwamyG wrote:
Karan M wrote:Problem is man who left the village promised everyone he was different & knew how to reach US overnight. He underestimated that the trains, planes he would have to take didn't exist and the whole mess was far worse.

Unfortunately India was in such a mess admin wise, that when Modi came he fixated on fixing those things. TSP fell to the sides in the things he had to focus on. Putting AJ as Def Min for far too long & then getting Parrikar but then not telling both to prepare for a short term conflict & get at least those tools in place. The confused meandering with Nawaz & the late realization that TSP cannot be trusted. The lack of any firm steps against pro-Pak media houses and their anchors.

He said he knew better but at the end of the day, they have just used the opportunity to target him and India.

That is electoral politics. Promise high and wide to get votes.
The moment Doval became the NSA, we should have guessed about the approach of the government. Looking at Modi's international travels and foreign policy, we must have pondered on the connections being established. TRADE is a key factor, if not the MOST IMPORTANT factor, on how things pan out in this World. Be it ancient Romans, Chinese and Indians trading, be it the ancient Persians, Greeks, Arabs and Indians trading, be it the trade between Arabs and Malabar Indians, be it the trade between S.E.Asia and South India; trade brought in war and changes. Relationships were broken and established.

Maybe the mistake by us in BRF and elsewhere was we looked at the shiny toys being bought and sold, we were caught up in the specifications and the approaching war. We did not think enough about the World order that was being created. Doval and Modi must have clearly and wisely decided that war is never a good option, and to try out peaceful means to knock sense into Pakistan and its 3.5 friends. They cannot be faulted for trying, but many thought he was wandering and acting confused. We chastised him because he won elections talking about bumb sounds and biryani. We thought he will be the Rambo and Commando with 112" chest blasting Pakistan to smithereens at the very first opportunity.

I strongly believe, yes it is just a belief, that Modi/Doval wanted to try peaceful and honest approach with Pakistan; at the same time get the World to trust and NEED India. Trade created the NEED. And friendly overtures towards Pakistan created the TRUST.

India has successfully weaned away Afghanistan and Bangladesh, and turned them totally anti-Pakistan. From the moment PVNR turned India towards S.E.Asia, India saw large opportunities in the region. Imagine two Muslim countries which had previous bad blood with Pakistan now in Indian sphere of influence! It is cutting off Pakistan from S.E.Asia, and pushing it into M.E.Asia. Nepal, Bhutan and SL will be kept in check. Along with Thailand and Burma, the BIMSTEC {https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Bengal_Initiative_for_Multi-Sectoral_Technical_and_Economic_Cooperation} group is gaining more say than SAARC. Long ago I had drawn a Indian Ocean Sphere of Influence map, and this is just part of it. We are yet to focus on Africa, and other Asian partners in ME. If Balochistan becomes free, then it is a feather on the hat.

It looks like MMS wanted to make India economically strong, however by Modi's admission the country was precarious economically. No power would respect India; it needed the time to clean its economic mess.

So the man who stayed in the village, made his family and the village unsafe because he could not control his family. The man walking towards the bus stop had to return fix the village before resuming his journey.

And don't tell me we in BRF - who pride in defense and strategic interests - did not see some of the reality. MMS, giving him the benefit of doubt on his intentions, left India tittering and did not take it in the direction Indians wanted. Modi is dong it. Is there a disagreement there? Is there a consensus that Modi is making India stronger?

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 09:25

Let me have a mini poll here. Sorry if some do not like the options but I am giving only 2
1. Modi for 10 years
2. War with Pakistan now

Make your choice - but I predict that Pakistan will do its darndest to start a war but war will not start until they actually send tanks and aircraft into India. groups of 4-8 men are not going to cut it

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 20 Sep 2016 09:36

There can be both 1 & 2 in one option right ? But, if more of these attacks happen, and if Modi does nothing, then it can be NO for both options.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Sumeet » 20 Sep 2016 09:41

Where is Sushma Swaraj these days ? Shouldn't she be meeting PM and CCS etc to get first hand gist of where we will be pushing our policy going forward ? After all she will be leading our diplomatic offence in UNGA.
Last edited by Sumeet on 20 Sep 2016 09:45, edited 1 time in total.

Atmavik
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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Atmavik » 20 Sep 2016 09:42

shiv wrote:
So I believe a short sharp retaliation may be of no use. I will close by reposting stuff from Christine Fair grabbed from my Kindle and posted on Twitter
Image


I completely agree with Christine Fairs assessment but let me give another view. let us look at TSP Army's goal on the domestic front. here they want to show the civil government as incompetent/corrupt in contrast to TSPA allowing them to keep a grip on power. Losing this power is their greatest fear hence media is carefully controlled to maintain an image. but a few uncomfortable(for TSPA) questions have come up. a few examples after 1971 are

1. after Siachen capture by IA, Benazir asked Zia to wear bangles and he said something like 'Not a blade of grass grows there'.
2. After the Abottabad raid Shuja pasha had a dressing down by politicians and almost led to a coup.
3. Questions were croping up after Kargil but mushy's coup put an end to it.

So a Short retaliation may raise a few more questions and puncture the balloon of Muchad Shariff who is hailed as the second coming of Bin Qasim. the other sharif brothers who have been on the backfoot from the day one of coming to power may try to regain some lost space. media is not that easy to control now a days.

over the long term a retaliation by india will have very little affect but will set the cat among pigeons for a while.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 20 Sep 2016 09:52

Sumeet wrote:Where is Sushma Swaraj these days ? Shouldn't she be meeting PM and CCS etc to get first hand gist of where we will be pushing our policy going forward ? After all she will be leading our diplomatic offence in UNGA.

She is getting ready for UNGA. Indian Envoys across the World are being briefed, must be a big diplomatic response.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 09:56

Karthik S wrote:There can be both 1 & 2 in one option right ? But, if more of these attacks happen, and if Modi does nothing, then it can be NO for both options.

Here is my take on this.

First let me the admission that I am always the person who is ranting against "log kya kahenge". Easy for me to rant with no responsibility other than personal integrity.

The point I am getting at is that politics is all about "log kya kahenge". The winner in politics is always the person who thinks about all his actions under two headings
1. What will people say if my plans succeed
2. What will people say if my plans fail

Modi is master of log kya kahenge. He will be eaten up by national and international wolves if he attacks Pakistan but fails to reach a long term solution. This is one reason why no prime minister has ever attacked Pakistan on his/her own.

If we on BRF know so much about Pakistan we should also know that a few retaliatory strikes will not hurt Pakistan any more than terrorist strikes hurt us. But politically Modi will be screwed. He is in a situation where he is called a coward and is being questioned about pre-poll statements now. Unless he can show 1971 like victory anything he does will be "..phussss" so to speak. So what people say and think are critical, and not just those who want him to make war

In saying this I can be accused of claiming that Modi is a politician and not a great nationalist. But Modi's political intuition is excellent. I do not mean to be patronizing and say "My birthday came before yours, so I must be right" - but in 1971 war did not come until India had widespread international sympathy and Pakistan was deeply undermined in the East. Neither of these fortuitous circumstances exist today. It is my judgement that Modi is an astute enough politician to know what he is doing.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Murugan » 20 Sep 2016 10:03

Anybody has access to that news item, where a dead paki brigadier's photo was published in a news paper's small corner ? Sometimes in 80s or early 90s, a brigade size attack was carried out on an Indian post. The whole brigade was wiped out but there was total media silence, no bravado, no chest thumping. It was learnt that both party agreed to keep silent. Some mushy type made a mistake and boasted about attacking an Indian post. The next day there was this pic of dead paki brigadier in Indian news paer and nothing more.

Is it our policy to not glorify/advertise our own achievement or something else ?

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 10:06

When that b*&*% Malini Parthasarathy said on Twitter that soldiers sign up to die most of us were upset. But sending those soldiers into war where they may die but with no end goal in sight is an action that would show Modi as a man who may not talks like Malini P but his actions prove that he agrees with her that Indian boys can be sent in to die to get a feelgood reaction from angry people.

Feeling good is necessary for us, but I think Pakistan needs to be taken down. Retaliatory strikes will not do the trick. Hitting JeM or LeT camps will not hurt Pakistan. Maybe taking down 50 border posts will be nice but we will find out only when the Pakistan press reports shelling

To me it is interesting that Putin did not react to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian aircraft. He stuck to his guns and came out looking good. His political gambles have been more successful than Ombaba's second term.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 10:12

Modi has been so careful about not appearing to be anti-Muslim or anti-Pakistan that there have been:
1. No cheers, only jeers from his supporters
2. Dead silence from his opponents in India and abroad

In due course Modi will place himself completely beyond any blame and no one will be able to accuse him of not doing everything possible to befriend Pakistan. Pakistan will have to attack India directly if they want to spoil this - but if Modi supporters are stupid enough, they can be made to work for Pakistani interests - but that should go in the psy-ops thread. Pakistan can do that in various ways via its sickular proxies and beef/gauraksha type acts.

If Modi can get himself into a situation whre no one can blame him for being aggressive and anti-Muslim hindootva, but attacks continue against India, he will be in a position to hit Pakistan hard, with little internal or external oppositioon

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 10:33


Dilbu
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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Dilbu » 20 Sep 2016 11:02

Modi govt under pressure to strike Pakistan after Uri attack
Noting that PM Narendra Modi has criticized the last Congress government for being weak on Pakistan, analysts say there is no option for him but to respond


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