India-US relations: News and Discussions III

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 20 Sep 2016 22:54

It depends on what the retaliation is for: is it for Uri, or 26/11(no one has brought that one up and it is still unfinished business). If the international community(tm) declares pakistan to be a terrorist state over mumbai, then I think India will be satisfied.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 20 Sep 2016 22:57

Nobody would have said anything if we had struck Pakistan after 26/11 as a retaliation.

There is one reason we did not do it. It would have made MMS into a hero. This did not fit Sonia Gandhi's timeline... she wanted to boost RG into the PM's seat after the 2010-11 UP elections (which INC expected to win) and this would have been more difficult if MMS had the aura of fighting back and hitting Pakistan hard. So she forced him to play the quiet, ineffectual regent... and he complied.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 20 Sep 2016 23:02

Just as well he, MMS, didn't act then, but India was under tremendous pressure from the usual crowd. What we know now about Headley and the collusion with pakistan has been a long time in coming and it provides legal grounds to restart the clock. This is why Reidel is crying foul

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Sep 2016 00:41

Some context to the election:

The 'forgotten tribe' in West Virginia; why America's white working class feels left behind

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Sep 2016 01:55

Funny that biz cheifs would be scared of the Trump. Lol

Why So Many Business Leaders Are Tiptoeing Around Donald Trump

A fear inducing leader is dangerous to everyone.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 21 Sep 2016 04:45

Rudradev wrote: There is one reason we did not do it. It would have made MMS into a hero. This did not fit Sonia Gandhi's timeline... she wanted to boost RG into the PM's seat after the 2010-11 UP elections (which INC expected to win) and this would have been more difficult if MMS had the aura of fighting back and hitting Pakistan hard. So she forced him to play the quiet, ineffectual regent... and he complied.

Ever since killing of Rajiv Gandhi by Christian LTTE terrorists, sonia has made a friend out of all 3 terrorist groups, Christian terrorist organisations ltte + ne terror groups, leftist mao terrorists plus the islamic terror coming from porkistan, if you see none of three have any reason or showed any animosity towards familia. In fact sonia continuously backs nabi fai (isi) connections harsh mandar, shabnam hasmi plus naxalite aruna roy kejri etc. While mms freely does sharm-al-sheikh.

No they'll never do any '71, this family won't. That's why in jnu kaand "bharat ki barbadi tak...." slogans and Rahul openly sided with them.

Profit is that Hindus never kill, they never become terrorists while commie-christo-muslims do. So its safe.

Plus as the internet hindus educated common hindu masses, congis will have to go on the side of minorities plus maoists with kanhaiya types.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 21 Sep 2016 10:10

NRao wrote:Funny that biz cheifs would be scared of the Trump. Lol

Why So Many Business Leaders Are Tiptoeing Around Donald Trump

A fear inducing leader is dangerous to everyone.

Yeah...a left-wing nut sharing personal anecdotes in NY Times about Trump-induced "climate of fear" is obviously speaking the gospel truth !

A similar hit-job on a candidate prior to Indian elections would have been shredded to pieces on logic, by India's internet-savvy public...what is the reaction to this article? Has American public IQ seriously plumbed the depths or is it that they been struck low by an Obama-induced "climate of fear" ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Sep 2016 21:29

The FBI has failed repeatedly to identify and track Lone Wolf terrorists from Pakistan. San Bernardino, Orlando, and NYC/NJ attackers all were at one time or other on FBI watch list and still managed to conduct terrorist strikes.

FBI Director Coomey in spirit of accountability should resign. If these terrorists were not on watch list its one thing but all three cases they were known to FBI with advance information.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Sep 2016 22:31

Request to US citizens here.. write to your congressmen.. support H R 6069
https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-con ... fo#summary
H.R.6069 - To require a report on the designation of Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, and for other purposes.
(See details in the link above.

The text is in this link:

114th CONGRESS
2d Session
H. R. 6069

To require a report on the designation of Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, and for other purposes.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
September 20, 2016
Mr. Poe of Texas (for himself and Mr. Rohrabacher) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs

A BILL
To require a report on the designation of Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the “Pakistan State Sponsor of Terrorism Designation Act”.

SEC. 2. REPORT ON DESIGNATION OF PAKISTAN AS A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM.

(a) Findings.—Congress finds the following:

(1) Following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, al-Qaeda leaders and the Afghan Taliban fled Afghanistan to Pakistan and settled in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Joint Task Force Guantanamo threat assessments subsequently revealed that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) facilitated al-Qaeda’s movement of fighters to and from Afghanistan as well as the terrorist organization’s purchase of weapons.

(2) The Government of Pakistan, and the ISI in particular, provide support and a safe haven to groups designated as foreign terrorist organizations pursuant to section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1189) by the United States Government. Then Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen testified in 2011 that “the Haqqani Network … acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. With ISI support, Haqqani operatives planned and conducted” various attacks against United States personnel and interests in Afghanistan, including a 2011 attack on the United States Embassy in Kabul.

(3) The founder and leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, was found and killed in the Pakistani military town of Abbottabad in 2011. The Government of Pakistan subsequently condemned the raid that killed the terrorist leader and continues to imprison Dr. Shakil Afridi, the Pakistani doctor who played an instrumental role in identifying Osama bin Laden’s hiding place.

(4) A 2012 NATO report indicated that the Afghan Taliban is directly assisted by the Pakistani security services and noted that “Pakistan’s manipulation of the Taliban senior leadership continues [unabated]”. The report also suggested that Pakistan is aware of the locations of senior Taliban leaders, including one who maintained a residence in the immediate vicinity of the ISI headquarters in Islamabad.

(5) The leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, was located in southwestern Pakistan at the time of his death by a United States drone strike on May 21, 2016. Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province has long been a haven for the Afghan Taliban, and the group’s top leadership is headquartered in the city of Quetta in Baluchistan Province.

(6) The Department of State’s 2016 Country Reports on Terrorism noted that Pakistan “did not take substantial action against the Afghan Taliban or HQN (the Haqqani Network), or substantially limit their ability to threaten United States interests in Afghanistan”. The report also stated that “Pakistan has not taken sufficient action against other externally-focused groups such as Laskar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), which continued to cooperate, train, organize, and fundraise in Pakistan”. Moreover, since passage of Carl Levin and Howard P. ‘Buck’ McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 (Public Law 113–291), the Secretary of Defense has been unable to certify that Pakistan has taken adequate action against the Haqqani Network in accordance with section 1222(f) of such Act.

(7) Pakistan has not taken steps to demonstrate its commitment to prevent the Haqqani Network from using North Waziristan as a safe haven, nor has it shown progress in arresting and prosecuting Haqqani Network senior leaders and mid-level operatives.

(b) Reports.—

(1) IN GENERAL.—Not later than 90 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the President, acting through the Secretary of State and in consultation with the heads of other appropriate Federal departments and agencies, shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report that determines whether—

(A) (i) with respect to each of the acts described in paragraphs (1) through (7) of subsection (a), the Government of Pakistan, including any agents or instrumentalities of such Government, directly or indirectly, committed, conspired to commit, attempted, aided, or abetted any such act; or

(ii) the Government of Pakistan, including any agents or instrumentalities of such Government, directly or indirectly, committed, conspired to commit, attempted, aided, or abetted any act not referred to in clause (i) that constitutes an act of international terrorism; and

(B) any such act referred to in subparagraph (A)(i) constitutes an act of or support for international terrorism.

(2) FOLLOW-UP.—Not later than 30 days after the submission of the report required under paragraph (1), the Secretary of State shall determine if any act referred to in such paragraph constitutes support for international terrorism and shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report that contains—

(A) a determination that the Government of Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism; or

(B) a detailed justification as to why the conduct described in the report required under such paragraph does not meet the legal criteria for such a determination.

(c) Form.—The reports required by subsection (b) shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex, if appropriate.

SEC. 3. DEFINITIONS.

In this Act:

(1) APPROPRIATE CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES.—The term “appropriate congressional committees” means—

(A) the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives; and

(B) the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate.

(2) STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM.—The term “state sponsor of terrorism” means a country the government of which the Secretary of State has determined, for purposes of section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 (50 U.S.C. 4605(j)) (as continued in effect pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.)), section 620A of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2371), section 40 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2780), or any other provision of law, is a government that has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 22 Sep 2016 22:56

Huma Abedin to be Clinton's Secretary of State, Say Wiki-leaked Emails
Abedin, 40, would be the first Moslem Secretary of State, and One of the Youngest Ever

As President, Hillary Clinton will appoint Huma Abedin as Secretary of State. This according to leaked e mails between Abedin, Mrs. Clinton, and Clinton's former chief of staff Cheryl Mills.

Abedin, 40, would be the first Moslem Secretary of State, and one of the youngest ever. She would not, however, be the first foreign born Secretary of State. Henry Kissinger, 93, has that distinction, having been appointed by Richard Nixon.

Huma Mahmood Abedin, 40, served as vice chairwoman of Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign for President. Prior to that, she served as the deputy chief of staff to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from 2009 to 2013.

ABedin parlayed a 1996 Whitehouse internship into a role as Mrs. Clinton's Right Hand Man, or Woman.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is listed as the supervisor certifying Abedin's designation as a "special government employee. This classification allowed Abedin to work for an outside consulting firm and the Clinton Foundation, at the same time that she advised then Secretary of State Clinton. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/c ... z4KYuDW8UF

The Clinton campaign reiterated Sunday that Clinton did not personally sign documents for Abedin, or other employees. Hillary Clinton's name was listed in print, but the signature underneath was redacted by the State Department. The document caused a stir and led to media reports Clinton had lied about not having been involved..

Clinton had said on TV weeks ago that she "was not directly involved" in Abedin's SGE status, a position that is currently under investigation by the Senate Judiciary Committee for potential conflicts of interest.

According to documents obtained by the conservative group Judicial Watch through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, released Thursday, Clinton was the immediate supervisor named on one of the documents that transition her to this new post, permitting her then-deputy chief of staff to serve simultaneously as an outside consultant.

The campaign on Sunday said signed the form, not Clinton herself. Mills would have the authority to sign such forms for Abedin.

Prior to that she was traveling chief of staff and served as assistant for Clinton during Clinton's campaign for the Democratic nomination in the 2008 presidential election.

She is married to, but separated from, Anthony Weiner, a former U.S. Representative from New York. Weiner has been a major embarrassment to the Clintons. Weiner has a penchant for sending partially clothed photos of himself to women he's met on the internet. But unless you've been on Mars this year, you already know that story.

Despite having grown up in different countries, Abedin and Clinton have a lot more in common then husbands with a history of philandering. It makes sense that Clinton would want to appoint Abedin to her old job leading the State Department. Secretary of State is third in line to the president, under the US Constitution. It also makes sense that Clinton would want her right hand woman to back up herself and Vice President Tim Kaine in that way as well.

Abedin has served as vice chairwoman for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign for president since 2015 and continues in her role as personal assistant to Clinton. Her elevation to the No. 3 position in the campaign was a "transformative shift... to campaign power center of her own," according to Politico. She screened and interviewed applicants for key campaign roles, including campaign manager Robby Mook, and was the primary channel for communications to Clinton before the campaign officially began. After Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump proposed banning Muslims from entering the United States, she wrote an open letter to Clinton supporters calling herself "a proud Muslim" and criticized Trump's plan as "literally (writing) racism into our law books".

In a letter dated June 13, 2012, to the State Department Inspector General, five Republican members of Congress-Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Trent Franks of Arizona, Louie Gohmert of Texas, Thomas J. Rooney of Florida, and Lynn Westmoreland of Georgia-claimed that Abedin "has three family members – her late father, her mother and her brother – connected to Muslim Brotherhood operatives and/or organizations."

The five members of Congress alleged that Abedin had "immediate family connections to foreign extremist organizations" which they said were "potentially disqualifying conditions for obtaining a security clearance" and questioned why Abedin had not been "disqualified for a security clearance."

The claims in the letter were generally rejected, and were labeled by some as conspiracy theories. The Washington Post editorial board called the allegations "paranoid," a "baseless attack," and a "smear."

The letter was also criticized by, among others, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Representative Keith Ellison, Democrat of Minnesota, the first Muslim member of Congress, who called the allegation "reprehensible." Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, also rejected the allegations, saying "The letter and the report offer not one instance of an action, a decision or a public position that Huma has taken while at the State Department that would lend credence to the charge that she is promoting anti-American activities within our government....These attacks on Huma have no logic, no basis and no merit."

Bachmann's former campaign manager Ed Rollins said the allegations were "extreme and dishonest" and called for Bachmann to apologize to Abedin.

The Anti-Defamation League condemned the letter, calling upon the Representatives involved to "stop trafficking in anti-Muslim conspiracy theories."

Abedin was born on July 28, 1976. At the age of two, she moved with her family to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where she was raised and lived until returning to the United States for college. Abedin traveled frequently during her childhood and teenage years and attended a British girls' school.[8]

Both of her parents were educators. Her father, born in New Delhi, India, on April 2, 1928, was an Islamic and Middle Eastern scholar of Indian descent, who received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania, and then in 1978 founded the Institute of Muslim Minority Affairs, an organization devoted to the study of Muslim communities in non-Muslim societies around the world. In 1979 he founded the Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, which his wife took over after his death; his daughter Huma was listed as an associate editor in 1996–2008.

Her mother, born in India (now Pakistan after British Partition), also received her Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania, and is currently an associate professor of sociology and dean at Dar Al-Hekma College in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

At age 18 Abedin entered George Washington University, where she earned a Bachelor of Arts degree/. As a teenager, she aspired to be a journalist like her role model Christiane Amanpour, and wanted to work in the White House press office.

http://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/09 ... /1969.html

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 22 Sep 2016 23:26

Oh sh*t haha! Islamist South Asian Secretary of State talking to us about Human Rights violations in Kashmir...That seals the deal for me. I hope this Trump idiot wins the presidency.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Sep 2016 00:49

Bery, bery interesting. This is perhaps the leak Mr. Assange promised. And, I bet he has more. Hillary will be derailed.

To couple with this, another timely report:

New Abedin Emails Reveal Hillary Clinton State Department Gave Special Access to Top Clinton Foundation Donors

The Abedin emails reveal that the longtime Clinton aide apparently served as a conduit between Clinton Foundation donors and Hillary Clinton while Clinton served as secretary of state. In more than a dozen email exchanges, Abedin provided expedited, direct access to Clinton for donors who had contributed from $25,000 to $10 million to the Clinton Foundation. In many instances, Clinton Foundation top executive Doug Band, who worked with the Foundation throughout Hillary Clinton’s tenure at State, coordinated closely with Abedin. In Abedin’s June deposition to Judicial Watch, she conceded that part of her job at the State Department was taking care of “Clinton family matters.”

Perfect: SoS.

I think Hillary needs to be replaced by Biden and Trump by Ryan. : D

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Sep 2016 04:34

Navtej Sarna to Serve as Ambassador to the US

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 23 Sep 2016 04:37

RoyG wrote:Oh sh*t haha! Islamist South Asian Secretary of State talking to us about Human Rights violations in Kashmir...That seals the deal for me. I hope this Trump idiot wins the presidency.

Clinton will be too dangerous for India.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 23 Sep 2016 08:09

Whether pakistan is declared as terrorist nation or not is going to be of less consequence. The cookie is crumbling where na-pakis are going to be get full treatment soon. It is very good opportunity for US to correct its historic blunder of siding with na-pakis during 1971 Bangladesh war, and support Balochistan. Will this be squandered and will US again pick dubious na-pakis again to repeat history? Only time will tell and it is fast approaching.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 23 Sep 2016 08:11

The Threat To Russia and China From India’s New Pro-US Realignment

Breaking Up The BRICS

Prime Minister Modi increasing alignment with the US puts the BRICS organisation at serious risk of falling apart.

India does sincerely wish for the success of certain multipolar projects. These include wider use of national non-dollar currencies in bilateral trade and the establishment of alternative global institutions such as the BRICS New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, in which India would finally have representation proportionate to its size.

However these forms of economic and institutional multipolarity are very different from the geopolitical multipolarity Russia and China practice. Whilst India would obviously benefit from that too, the short-sighted obsession of its “deep state” elites (ie. its permanent intelligence-military-diplomatic bureaucracies) in “containing” China, confronting Pakistan, and conquering the rest of Kashmir blind them to its advantages. This leads to the strange paradox of India geopolitically embracing the same hegemon – the US – it opposes in the economic and institutional spheres.

Russia and China for their part had until recently assumed India shared their vision of economic, institutional, and – most importantly – geopolitical multipolarity. Now it seems the geopolitical aspect of this global vision is something India’s elite no longer wants to move forward with.

Ultimately an intensification of Chinese-Indian competition in a sort of bilateral Cold War can only serve the interests of the US. It not only risks undermining BRICS unity from within. Over time increasingly tense bilateral relations between India and China would inevitably spill over into other multipolar organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, undermining their unity and impairing their effectiveness.

It is easy to see how in such a situation things might get so bad that India – contrary to its own long-term interests – might decide to accept whatever deal it was offered by the US and turn its back on the BRICS entirely.

It is not inconceivable that in that case India could become a bridge between a US-sponsored TTIP in western Eurasia and a US sponsored TPP in eastern Eurasia, with India forming the link in some sort of southern “rimland alliance” against Russia and China.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Sep 2016 08:31

hyper venting!

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 23 Sep 2016 10:40

Guys in keeping with the sensitivities of many here, I am not going to post any link to an UnDy interview, but I saw an interview with former US ambassador to India, Tim Roemer. I would say at least first half, its worth a watch. When asked about TSP terror, he starts off with the usual platitudes about India US cooperation on terror without naming TSP, I was yawning, and just as I was about to switch off, he does in deed make hard hitting statements against TSP and in fact even mentioned Uri attack. My feeling is that Uncle is working behind the scenes. I know its humiliating to rely on Unkil, but I guess instead of just hitting a few tents across PoK and losing more of our valuable jawans and officers in the process while doing nothing to hurt TSPA, at least US pressure on TSPA/ISI may be marginally better. The second half of the interview is not worth watching, the Indian RAPE dorkette who interviewed the ambassador has displays so much excitement and knowledge about US election scene is so embarrassing that even the Amby pointed that out

.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 23 Sep 2016 12:58

NRao wrote:
Lynn is Icahn's General Counsel. Icahn is prepping Trump for the debate on the 26th.

It does not matter. University of Iowa has a proprietary futures trading for US presidential election. In other words, US elections are bought and sold on this exchange.

Hillary at 75 cents
Trump at 25 cents

Who gets to 1 dollar becomes president. Its as simple as that.

https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html

They have been at it for 20 years. And mostly accurate. It will be sad if Hillary becomes US president.

Trump as A US president will destroy USA.
Hillary as A US president will destroy the world.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Sep 2016 19:48

A piece worth reading and sharing specially with and US Congressmen and other policy makers one knows.
America Must Stand by India—and Pressure Pakistan

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 23 Sep 2016 19:54

panduranghari wrote: Trump as A US president will destroy USA.
Hillary as A US president will destroy the world.

As succinct a statement as any as to why Hillary has better odds!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 23 Sep 2016 23:05

Amber G. wrote:A piece worth reading and sharing specially with and US Congressmen and other policy makers one knows.
America Must Stand by India—and Pressure Pakistan

Another well written piece from the same author:
Denying Pakistan the Dividends of Terror

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 23 Sep 2016 23:57

As an Indian in America, I know it pains Indians on BRF to see Hillary win and trust me It makes me puke (to vote for either moron). But the alternate is a Hitler clone. Unless Hillary is proven to be a demonic succubus or the minority vote is vastly suppressed, Donald J. Moron will lose. And if he wins, there will be race wars and god knows what. And as an Iowan, thanks for citing the UI Tippie Business School

Ironically, Drumpf is up +7 in Iowa thanks to the illiterates in the western half of the state.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2016 00:31

Anant,

His supporters have stated that they are taking a risk. It remains to be seen what they would do in the voting booth. Outside of his ardent right wingers, it would be very hard for anyone else to pull the lever.

Having said that Hillary is making it much easier, for Trump, than it should be too. Seems the Electoral College calculus is still holding for her. By a slim margin.

Meanwhile, an interesting article:

US election: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump compared to world leaders

Funny to say the least.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Sep 2016 02:01

http://swarajyamag.com/insta/trump-is-j ... next-potus

Trump Is Just One Swing State Away From Becoming The Next POTUS

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2016 02:04

Election Forecasting Guru Allan Lichtman Predicts Donald Trump Will Win 2016 Election

Never missed a prediction since 1984!!! Impressive.

Oh, why not, interesting guy:

ALLAN LICHTMAN: Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.

We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent.

We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

WASHINGTON POST: We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November?

LICHTMAN: Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.

Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.

Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.

Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act.

Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.

And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.

One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.

So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor. So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote.

The keys:

If six or more are false, the party in power will lose.

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds
mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 24 Sep 2016 03:24

Please take a moment to sign it:
https://www.change.org/p/usinpac-appeal ... -a-reality

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 24 Sep 2016 07:10

Huma Abedin even if she is designated as Secretary of State is only fourth in the line of succession- president, vice president, president pro tempore and secretary of state. Irving Wallace wrote a magnificent novel set in the civil rights and black panther era of mid 60s (The Man).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2016 08:13

Well, she is not even qualified for Sec of State. Forget succession.

Caught the tail end of a Q&A session, on NPR, with someone (did not catch his name) who is advising Trump on "Trade". And, he sounded very, very interesting. The topic was on what kind of jobs would Trump's policies create. The part I caught was about manufacturing. He happen to mention that the goal is to retain "globalization". I suspect I missed the meat of his argument. But, it sounded good to me.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 24 Sep 2016 08:46

nandakumar wrote:Huma Abedin even if she is designated as Secretary of State is only fourth in the line of succession- president, vice president, president pro tempore and secretary of state. Irving Wallace wrote a magnificent novel set in the civil rights and black panther era of mid 60s (The Man).

Nothing of the sort has been mooted. Don't believe an article just because it has 'Wikileaks' in the title. That's not a sign of authenticity. Especially when it comes from "Santa Monica Observer" and doesn't actually quote anything from Wikileaks.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Sep 2016 08:53

NRao-ji,

It is very unlikely that Trump can win given the electoral college. In the most worst case HRC will win 275, even if she loses FL and OH, and more likely closer to 300.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 24 Sep 2016 10:39

Mall shooting. Could be white or could be Paki.

Who wants to bet Paki?

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 24 Sep 2016 10:51

It is Fridin, they say the perp is Hispanic and absconding. Could be our neighbor in the West.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/report-active- ... d=42321253
3 Dead in Seattle-Area Mall Shooting, Gunman on the Loose, Say Police
By DAVID CAPLAN Sep 24, 2016, 12:23 AM ET
A gunman armed with a rifle is on the loose after three women were fatally shot Friday night at a shopping mall about 65 miles north of Seattle, Washington State Patrol said.
The shooting occurred at Cascade Mall in Burlington, Washington, before 7 p.m. local time.
In addition to the three women fatally shot, one male sustained life-threatening injuries and one female sustained non-life threatening injuries, said Sgt. Mark Francis, a public information officer with Washington State Patrol. Police initially said four people were dead.
The male victim with life threatening injuries was airlifted to Harborview Medical Center in Seattle and "most likely will pass away," Sgt. Francis said during a press conference. Harborview spokeswoman Susan Gregg confirmed the male victim arrived at the facility in critical condition via airlift around 9:30 p.m., adding "we are not expecting any others."
Sgt. Francis said four of the victims were found in the women's Macy's store. "We believe all five were [found at Macy's] but it has not been confirmed if the fifth was yet," he said....
Gautam

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2016 11:24

Mort Walker wrote:NRao-ji,

It is very unlikely that Trump can win given the electoral college. In the most worst case HRC will win 275, even if she loses FL and OH, and more likely closer to 300.

I would not go that far. Mr. Teleprompter has a decent chance (but NOT as decent as an Indian web site's silly claim of 1 state away). And I think Hillary, her typical, defiant self, is helping him move along.

But I will wait till Tue. Trump is certainly not himself. And nothing he says are his original thoughts.

My feel is she will win with a small margin. Perhaps, 280 or less.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 24 Sep 2016 12:11

trump is doing worse than romney with almost every demography except the non-college educated white male group. and he has not built up any ground org to move potential voters to booth. obama won because of his ground game. he simply moved more non-whites to compensate for romney's lead with whites.

barring some disaster at debates, HRC will win. we all have to suck it up and brace for SD overreach. i am not too concerned about that either as NM and team is more than a match for her shenanigans.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Sep 2016 12:26

What Trump Should Do - Ron Paul Interview with David Stockman

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 24 Sep 2016 19:04

NRao wrote:Anant,

His supporters have stated that they are taking a risk. It remains to be seen what they would do in the voting booth. Outside of his ardent right wingers, it would be very hard for anyone else to pull the lever.

Having said that Hillary is making it much easier, for Trump, than it should be too. Seems the Electoral College calculus is still holding for her. By a slim margin.

Meanwhile, an interesting article:

US election: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump compared to world leaders

Funny to say the least.

Donald Trump has issued no position statements on environmental issues on his website. In speeches and debates, however, he has said he opposes what he views as economically damaging environmental regulations backed by "political activists with extreme agendas". He says he supports clean water and air, but wants to slash funding to the Environmental Protection Agency. He has also called manmade climate change "a hoax" and said he would "cancel" the Paris Agreement and other international efforts to address the issue.

Like Mr Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prioritised economic development over environmental protection. His administration has loosened regulations, allowing businesses to conduct their own environmental impact studies and pollution control monitoring, instead of relying on local governments.

Violence and lawlessness is out of control in the US, according to Donald Trump. He says law enforcement agencies are unable to fight crime because of runaway "political correctness" and says they should be allowed to get tough on offenders. He says police profiling is necessary to prevent terrorist attacks on US soil and supports their ability to "stop and frisk" those they suspect of illegal activity. He has said convicts are often treated too well by the US criminal justice system and complained that the suspect in the New York bombings was receiving government-sponsored medical care and legal aid.

On the other end of the political spectrum from Norway is Rodrigo Duterte's Philippines. The newly elected president has been accused of ordering extra-judicial killings in order to control the nation's drug crime. He campaigned on a platform of getting tough on crime - promising to kill "100,000 criminals" - and has said that he doesn't care about human rights.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 24 Sep 2016 21:21

Party Loyalty Cant Make Me Vote Clinton

I have been steeped in the Democratic Party all my life. My father, Jerry, was a New York City Democratic chairman and power broker, and I grew up in and around the Democratic Party. When I was a young man, former senators and Democratic presidential and vice-presidential nominees Hubert Humphrey and Estes Kefauver stayed at my apartment and we would proudly discuss the great traditions of the Democratic Party.

My father was a pallbearer at St. Patrick’s for Bobby Kennedy’s funeral. When I was young, Robert F. Kennedy and John F. Kennedy were (and remain) my political heroes. Four years ago, former New York Gov. and liberal lion Mario Cuomo spoke at my father’s funeral. I think his son, current Gov. Andrew Cuomo, is a very effective leader.

I was elected five times to the New York state Assembly as a Democrat. In 1977, I beat David Dinkins and Robert Wagner Jr. in the election for borough president of Manhattan, and then was elected twice as City Council president.

With this background it is very hard for me not to support the Democratic nominee for president this year.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 25 Sep 2016 05:50

Anant wrote:As an Indian in America, I know it pains Indians on BRF to see Hillary win and trust me It makes me puke (to vote for either moron). But the alternate is a Hitler clone

Last time Bharat got independence from brishit due to Hitler, by starting world war 2 hitler made the british too weak to hold colonies....

With hitler clone at least this regime of "...religious intolerance in Bharat would have shocked Gandhi..." type of assholiness which favours pork-china combo will be seriously rattled or even broken, giving us a breathing space.

We are importing much and exporting lesser, our trade imbalance with china itself is 50 - 60 billion dollars, let the world be plunged into darkness chaos, we have a good team at helm to make turn every blockage into a stepping stone !

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Sep 2016 06:22

I am NRI and I rather have Trump than Clinton. Presidents are much more involved in foreign policies than domestic policies. There are lot of checks and balances. The system was designed to prevent Trump and Clinton like people from bringing the ship down. Non white population out numbers white one. And non white population has seen worse when there was no internet and cell phones with video cameras. As far as Hitler goes, he brought the WWII and no one knows what he may or may not have done after winning the war. No crystal ball here. There are people out there who refer to Alexander as the great and he was hardly any better than Hitler. All Hitler did was loose. Else, the north and sounth americas have seen many actors worse than Hitler but again they won and did not loose.