India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

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prahaar
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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby prahaar » 25 Sep 2016 14:12

While it is easy to blame the babus, and they rightfully deserve a significant chunk of it. I have heard Army officers say things like, I do not want to get my men killed to keep a politician's whims. This is not recent and was during pre-Kargil era. He laughingly joked, we are more cautious unlike China or Pakistan who do not care about the death of their soldiers. Their governments are callous about people's lives (civilian and uniformed), we are not like that.

In contrast to the popular refrain of netas not having balls, it is the whole establishment which is uber cautious to the point of paralysis, and has been that way since 1947 (more or less). I doubt if NaMo can advance timeline of military action the same way he did for Jan Dhan or Rural electrification.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby arijitdas » 25 Sep 2016 14:13

As I said earlier, I am a newbie here and this is my 3rd post. Although I agree with almost all the posts/views by the Shifus, my take is a little different here.
Although I was a strong votary of a Strongman Modi since long, and being there with him in couple of rallies in Bengal and observing him closely, can safely say his thinking is way more sinister than what most people actually realize. Also I want to clarify, that by no means, I want to sound like a Modi apologist, nor I am posting this to defend him or his actions or inactions. Just to add, some of us jingoes had a quick little chat with the NSA, when Modi was touring Malaysia and being an associate of 'Overseas Friend of BJP' we could be candid there. One thing I can say,Doval is rightly termed as Devil in Pakistan,even his own security detail would conform that. Also I personally had a chance to talk to Ram Madhav, one of the brains behind BJP-PDP alliance and J&K prabhari. I could have a direct chat with him for a couple of mins. and trust me he may shoot off mouth sometimes, he's no paltry one either.
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak"
"The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy"
Both are Sun Tzu quotes from the famed 'The Art of War'. In my humble view I think we need to take y'days' Kojhikode speech and todays' 'Mann ki Baat' a little seriously. M-D combination is actually applying Chinese medicine to a Chinese present. Although post Parrikar period, there has been a betterment of Logistics and deposits, we're still off 30 day storage period.
In my view M-D is being sinister here, they're not willing to give any clue of the Indian preparedness or temperament.It's all wrapped in a cloak of vagueness. Barring Diplomatic offensive and a little Economic offensive nothing will be done till we're ready for overt Action.BJP will not act aggressive, just to appear weak when the forces have been asked to sharpen their bayonets. They will be high on rhetoric and sound alarm in foreign capitals, but that's it. I doubt whether we'd want to tip off by removing the 'Lowlife' Abdul Basit. We may go for an all out war even him being present here, just to rub it in.
Modi has to make sure that we need to be 'beyond the possibility of defeat' even if the jungjoo qaum uses TNWs,otherwise BJP may kiss any chance of coming back to power for the next 15-20 years. So capability building would be of prime importance in coming days.
I think we'll see an overt reaction by winter time, may be this year or the next or in 2018/19, just like 1971, just to cut off any direct military/infantry level intervention by you know whom. Also every war/overt action has to achieve a political objective, as for a country like India, war is always a political option unlike our western neighbor. Unless we're pretty sure our political objective will be met, and the question of defeat if negated, we cannot deep dive into an overt action just to calm some nerves.
That brings us to the last & moot question, what can be the immediate political objective of an overt action? Secession of Balochistan is a long process may be 2/3 or 5 year plan, Sindhu desh, Pakhtunistan even longer. So what can be the immediate Political objective in next 1/2 or 3 years? For me a newbie it's one and only POJK & GB. Remember Doval's famous speech at BSF function? Well here's the link --> http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 391553.cms
If this is the mindset of the present dispensation and if we're to believe the reports that India's Pak policy is managed by Doval himself, it all starts to make sense.
This will ensure China's OBOR plan for access to Arabian Sea is taken care off and the biggest message for world community, that India has arrived. Also it'll put an end to Pakistan's 'Last Hope' CPEC and will speed up the degeneration and eventually disintegration.
So till we have that capability or capacity, we should act normal and create hoopla on the diplomatic fora and appear weak while continue to sharpen the bayonets. That'll indeed be the revenge, which will be served chilled.

And if all these inaction is just another 'Strategic Restraint' in another form and shape, will be happy to eat crow in May 2019.. :lol:
Last edited by arijitdas on 25 Sep 2016 14:22, edited 3 times in total.

pankajs
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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 14:14

Another headline this time from the Business Standard "Army doesn't speak, its shows valour: Modi on Uri"

Again the same theme i.e The Army has been given a free hand to respond. It will quietly do what is necessary and without any fuss. Folks who expect *light, camera and action* are going to be disappointed.

That does not don't rule out action *deep* inside Bakistan but such stuff cannot be owned. That also does not rule out *open* response but that just is not on the table right now.
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Sep 2016 14:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 14:37

Adbloker prevented me from posting the exact quotes. So here is another. This is the 3rd time he is stated that those responsible will be punished.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 507391.cms
Uri terror attack: PM Modi likens anger to 1965, reposes faith in Army - PTI

<<-----
Likening the anger in the country over Uri attack to that witnessed in the 1965 war, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday maintained that those responsible for the terror strike will surely be punished as he asserted that the army does not speak but displays bravery.

<snip>

He said, "This is a loss not only for those families which lost their sons, brothers, husbands. This loss is for the entire country. That is why, today I will say only this much, which I said on that day (of the incident) also and I will repeat it today, that the guilty will surely be punished."

Reposing faith in the Indian Army, the Prime Minister said it will foil all such designs through its bravery.

"They (Indian armymen) are the people who take bravery to its pinnacle so that 125 crore people can live a peaceful life," he said.

"We are proud of our army. People and politicians get opportunities to speak and that's what they do. But the army does not speak. The army displays its bravery," Modi said.
------->>

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Aditya G » 25 Sep 2016 14:44

shiv wrote:...I think that across party lines netas feel that cost of war does not justify the results that we might get. .....


Or ... there is no immediate benefit to Politico-Babu system from war. Here I believe Modi is different. He knows he will be immortalized if he punishes Pakistan. But he needs the complete GoI machinery to support him at all levels. I think people in this ecosystem remain skeptical at large.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Gus » 25 Sep 2016 15:03

Aditya G wrote:Or ... there is no immediate benefit to Politico-Babu system from war. Here I believe Modi is different. He knows he will be immortalized if he punishes Pakistan. But he needs the complete GoI machinery to support him at all levels. I think people in this ecosystem remain skeptical at large.


he also knows he will be buried even if there is single misstep. he does not even have to slip and fall down. just a slight slip is enough for the legion of enemies within, to push him down and trample.

we are not like US where media generally toes admin line EVEN when knowing within themselves that admin is lying (WMD, nukes in iraq etc). here most of media, many political parties, ngo-activist-civil society cabal etc - all bat for pak.

folks ask - what is then the difference between modi and mms.

difference is one of them caused this situation over the decades and perpetuated this and is the force of inertia on this. the other has intent to change and i will still wait and see before doing a modi=mms on pakistan.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby IndraD » 25 Sep 2016 15:31

I came across article in TIME how India will lose investment if it goes for a war. If you notice even on home turf Modi's soft posturing to Pakistan has got support from unlikely media houses like The Hindu, IE etc.
There is an international pressure on India all the time (but not on Pakis) not to indulge in violence.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Amoghvarsha » 25 Sep 2016 15:32

what are the chances of a Chinese interference if India retaliates?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 15:34

This is getting boring with the same doubts being raised again and again.

Why will the Chinese interfere ... directly that is? The Chinese have always helped Bakis indirectly.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Amoghvarsha » 25 Sep 2016 15:40

pankajs wrote:This is getting boring with the same doubts being raised again and again.

Why will the Chinese interfere ... directly that is? The Chinese have always helped Bakis indirectly.

Bakis believe Cheenis willdeclare war on India to protect Bakis.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 15:47

Oh .... Let them believe what they want. IIRC, they also believe the Chinese will come to their aid *directly* against the Amrikhans. Bakis are delusional. Bakis are trying to comfort/console each other.

Added Later: This is the Porki army speaking through its proxies trying to reassure the mango apduls. But is also highlights that they do not believe they will be able to tackle India even with their atim bum.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby soumik » 25 Sep 2016 18:53

Wrote a small scenario on how a surgical strike on the Pakistani military could snowball into a Nuclear war , do read and let me know

http://bengalraider.blogspot.in/2016/09/sledgehammer.html

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Pratyush » 25 Sep 2016 18:58

soumik wrote:Wrote a small scenario on how a surgical strike on the Pakistani military could snowball into a Nuclear war , do read and let me know

http://bengalraider.blogspot.in/2016/09/sledgehammer.html


Not having read it. But you have fallen in the Pakistani game. If you think that Indian surgical strike will lead to nuke was.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby geeth » 25 Sep 2016 19:39

Amoghvarsha wrote:what are the chances of a Chinese interference if India retaliates?


Zilch. Because Tibetans are likely to declare independence along with Baluchis...afterall they are in the same boat.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby prashantsharma » 25 Sep 2016 19:50

My 2 bits....
i find it very difficult to comprehend how after decades of crying out after each attack that we will retaliate at a time and place of our choosing, we hardly ever have. For this i can think of no one else but the army leadership to blame. What capability have they developed to retaliate to such attacks? Almost none! Other than talking about impractical 'surgical strikes', what have they done? Blasting away with long-distance but imprecise artillery? What use is it if 1 out of 100 shells find their mark? all those pakistani posts are still existing after decades of this so called retaliation? why isn't the objective that for every attack/incursion, we will obliterate a dozen posts completely with all their men. i would pull up a few 23 mm anti-aircraft guns or take out a 30 mm gun from a BMP and place them at forward posts to use in a direct fire mode against the pakistani posts. there are 1000s of anti-tank missiles reaching their expiry date - put them to use on the border, they will definitely be more accurate and carry more punch than firing away at long distance with 7.62 MMGs... our army leadership displays a complete lack of tactical imagination... they give their men freedom to retaliate but with inappropriate/ineffective weaponry, and the heavy weaponry that they do allow at times (130, 155mm heavy artillery) is too inaccurate to make the pakis feel the pain... if u need to use heavy artillery, get some PGMs to make it count .... year after year we continue with this charade of 'retaliation'....let us reply purposefully now, not in some ritualistic manner... sure the pakis will respond in the same manner... but it is much easier for india to sustain the cost of using heavier and more expensive munitions and to bear the casualties than pakistan... these are the real first steps on the escalation ladder which no one seems to talk about... the next step on the escalation ladder is using stand-off weapons from inside indian airspace, like drone launched missiles, glide bombs, harpys, AASMs, SDB type tactical weapons... but we all know we are no where close to having developed credible options on these lines..
instead most commentators on television and on this blog can only think of brahmos, para-commando raids, Agni and other measures which are options that one can realistically use only in full scale war, not in the lead up to it ... in war (or avoiding it while still achieving your objectives) and in diplomacy, using options in the right sequence is what matters.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby jamwal » 25 Sep 2016 19:54

19/03/2017: 0330hrs
The Pakistani Prime minister was jolted awake by four SSG men who had stormed into his bedroom. These grim bearded men gave him no answers on why & where he was being taken. It was only after the Convoy entered the Nuclear Bunker built by the Army under the Margalla Hills close to Islamabad that he realized something major had happened. Moments later he was recording a prewritten condemnation of Indian Hostilities to be transmitted to the whole country repeatedly from 0400hrs. The Pakistan Army Chief was an angry & worried man, the Indian Military had just destroyed 40% of his war waging capability in a massive single strike. There was only one way he could steal victory from the jaws of defeat. The Pakistani PM was given no choice in the matter as he signed orders authorizing a strategic nuclear strike on the Indian Cities of Delhi & Mumbai.



Nope, not going to happen. Not until their territorial integrity is threatened.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Guddu » 25 Sep 2016 20:00

Re: the atim bum scenario...one can visualize any scenario, just because something is possible, it does not mean it is probable. I do think Namo and Doval are taking the right steps after the MMS years, but decades of military neglect cannot be righted quickly. Their heart is in the right place, however, I think they will run out of time. They need 10 years plus to right the situation...ie take back POK or anything significant. Abrogation of IWT can be done quicker. Modi's repeated assertions that the perpetrators of Uri will be punished, means that when we have a chance the heads of these organizations will lose their heads using overt or covert means. I am sure the military is working on it. IMHO, a couple of high accuracy missiles when saed suar is speaking or at home should do the same. If the missiles miss, repeat and rinse.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby manjgu » 25 Sep 2016 20:11

G parthsarthy gave a brief on his interaction with gen Kidwai ( a UP walla migrated to pakistan)... Gen Kidwai was heading Pakis strategic forces. Unless large swathes of Punjab are falling into Indian hands.. there is no hope of using of atom bum. they are as scared of indian atom bum ( we didnt make our atom bum to blast them at Modijis wedding )

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Lilo » 25 Sep 2016 20:21

jamwal wrote:
19/03/2017: 0330hrs
The Pakistani Prime minister was jolted awake by four SSG men who had stormed into his bedroom. These grim bearded men gave him no answers on why & where he was being taken. It was only after the Convoy entered the Nuclear Bunker built by the Army under the Margalla Hills close to Islamabad that he realized something major had happened. Moments later he was recording a prewritten condemnation of Indian Hostilities to be transmitted to the whole country repeatedly from 0400hrs. The Pakistan Army Chief was an angry & worried man, the Indian Military had just destroyed 40% of his war waging capability in a massive single strike. There was only one way he could steal victory from the jaws of defeat. The Pakistani PM was given no choice in the matter as he signed orders authorizing a strategic nuclear strike on the Indian Cities of Delhi & Mumbai.



Nope, not going to happen. Not until their territorial integrity is threatened.


Correction - unless massa gives the go ahead , pakis cannot launch their nukes at India.
Paki nuke ability is ultimately massa guaranteed .

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Chandragupta » 25 Sep 2016 20:27

With respect to Modi's statements that "Army will take revenge", "Army will punish", "Army never speaks, it shows its valor" itself shows that there will be no overt response, I doubt if even the Army will be cleared to go for high calibre fire assaults. Before elections, Modi always said "I will punish Pakistan", "I will speak their own language", "I will do this", "I will do that" and blah blah. He has passed on the baton to the Army, shrugged his hands off.

He should have thought about it when he got elected. He made Pakistan's friends in India powerless, he suould have expected being tested by Pak. Pakistan Army will try and discredit him so that C system gets back to power.

Here even US under Hillary will support Pak, expect more attacks because this is the only way to discredit Modi. Look at how his own supporters are furious at him.

I think Pak Army and Mullahs are not as dumb as we deem them to be. They have found our raw nerve, they are playing a long term game. Keep nationalists out of power by showing them as weak, show the Indian public that no party can stop Pakistan and terrorism, taking away a vital, vital point of differentiation between a Hindutva party and the Muslim pasand secular type parties. Development in India will never happen in a 5 year time frame, people will always get disillusioned and fall back to caste and largesse of C system. This coupled with an increasing Muslim population, it may not be Pakistan that will break up, but it may well be India that may lose territory and internal political space to Islamic parties.

This is happening even today. Modi has largely failed to do anything for Hindus, I understand many gurus will now come and say he is the PM of 125 crore Indians, he will never do anything overtly, at best he will even the playing field. Well, evening the playing field will not cut it for him. Pakistan card gone, no covert operations even if they happen have the kind of effects an overt jhappad will, development being a long term game and even today India is not really flying off the charts. Come 2019, all C system has to do is to remind people that Modi failed on Pakistan, development not really there, dalits being beaten etc etc. With a solid vote bank of 18-20% Muslims across the country, C system can wipe the floor if the corr voters of BJP dont come out in droves to re-elect Modi. If he doesnt understand it and continues to harp on being a secular leader in a communal country under rules set by C-system, I'd say that he is not really sharp enough to become the PM and definitely not sharp enough to deserve all kinds of platitudes showered on him by Hindus - next shivaji, hindu hriday samrat. He will be another vajpayee who blew the chance spectacularly.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby nirav » 25 Sep 2016 20:34

With the pakis reporting yet another closure of "airspace in northern areas" something is certainly cooking ..

The first closure was passed off as fizzleyas exercise, high mark .. this is is totally unexplained and comes right after PMs speech. http://www.dawn.com/news/1285956/flight ... hern-areas

Theres more to it than meets the eye.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 20:41

Chandragupta wrote:With respect to Modi's statements that "Army will take revenge", "Army will punish", "Army never speaks, it shows its valor" itself shows that there will be no overt response, I doubt if even the Army will be cleared to go for high calibre fire assaults. Before elections, Modi always said "I will punish Pakistan", "I will speak their own language", "I will do this", "I will do that" and blah blah. He has passed on the baton to the Army, shrugged his hands off.

Did Bakis announce their intention to attack at uri?
Did the Bakis claim uri attack after the fact?
Did they mass soldiers or line up arty/missiles at the border?

Their mission was executed by a bunch (Porki army or its munnas) in a covert action. So a covert response, if it is delivered, will be exactly what he had promised "I will speak their own language" and fulfill his "I will punish Pakistan". That is my take but each one of us can make his/her own judgement.

As far as his reelection is concerned he will sweep back if it were to be held today. He will be judged mainly on his domestic policy though his response to Porki provocation will pay a small role. Look no further than CON re-election after the Mumbai attack. This is not to suggest that no response be given but mango Indian is very self absorbed and has a short memory.

There are other *greater* risks to his re-election like the OBC/Dalit flareup, regional politics and consolidation against him like in Bihar.
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Sep 2016 20:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Sid » 25 Sep 2016 20:46

nirav wrote:With the pakis reporting yet another closure of "airspace in northern areas" something is certainly cooking ..

The first closure was passed off as fizzleyas exercise, high mark .. this is is totally unexplained and comes right after PMs speech. http://www.dawn.com/news/1285956/flight ... hern-areas

Theres more to it than meets the eye.


High Mark usually spans more then a 30 day period. And it's planned way ahead in time. They activate all PAF assets during this exercise.

But prokies are taking is as their muscle flexing at a time a conflict to deter India, while Indians are taking it as a porkies being on back foot and taking preventive measures for an ongoing operation.

At this point it doesn't matter what we think, what matters is what the other side thinks.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Philip » 25 Sep 2016 21:01

First the US,et al have to be informed that there can be no intl hypocrisy when it comes to dealing eith terror- and in India's case repeated terror strikes .Since the intl community hss done,esp the US fu*k all to rein Pak in but on the contrary has supported it to the hilt from now on India will deal with it in its own style.

Our pandering to Uncle Sam by the UPA for a decade is why ee srr in sh*t street today.zTrue,babus do not want conflict,thry thrive on crises like intestinal parasites with their cocktail circuit and dpl meanderings,never resolving the meat of the issue.

India will regain intl respect ONLY when it strikes militarily against Pak fearlessly!

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby JwalaMukhi » 25 Sep 2016 21:14

1) Army will respond.
2) War is not an option.
Both the above statements are for press and gullible ones.
The reality is:
1) India as a whole has to respond. Not just Indian Army.
2) War is already a reality. It is already forced on India. Question is will India continue to be passive recipient of thappads meekly.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby JwalaMukhi » 25 Sep 2016 21:24

Fighting terror is not just the job of security alone. The whole infrastructure including terror support services of fifth columnists must be taken down with extreme prejudice. Then only war on terror will be meaningful. Instead just saying security forces needs preparation, logistics, and only the burden rests with security forces is coping out of governance.
Similarly when napaks are already at war with India, it goes without saying napak support structure needs to be terminated in a hurry. That means no funny walks across wagah border, packing home pakis be they be from sports, music, candlemakers etc. A bonus would be offer resident pakis among fifth columnists to go with them. That is governance, not just merely outsourcing it to security people. That is plain recipe for failure in a war-time. A war-time leader does all the above plus more.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby panduranghari » 25 Sep 2016 21:54

Chandragupta wrote: If he doesnt understand it and continues to harp on being a secular leader in a communal country under rules set by C-system, I'd say that he is not really sharp enough to become the PM and definitely not sharp enough to deserve all kinds of platitudes showered on him by Hindus - next shivaji, hindu hriday samrat. He will be another vajpayee who blew the chance spectacularly.


While most understand your pain, its too soon to attribute success or failure.

Come 2019, there will be enough to show. Fate will help him along, as long as he helps himself.

As my father often tells me- Patience.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby ssundar » 25 Sep 2016 22:06

In our eagerness to see some action in POK, we are ignoring the hardcore action that did happen in New York.

A young, female Yindian stripped Nawaz down to his chaddi in prep for the next step.
Aunt Sushma just landed in New York with a cane and will soon remove even that chaddi to complete the next step.

Sorry to be so crude, but do any of you have any idea how much emotional damage that does to the mard Paki race?

As a BR Guru once said many years ago... the second worst insult you can inflict on a Paki is call him a Hindu. The worst... calling him a woman.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby darshhan » 25 Sep 2016 22:22

soumik wrote:Wrote a small scenario on how a surgical strike on the Pakistani military could snowball into a Nuclear war , do read and let me know

http://bengalraider.blogspot.in/2016/09/sledgehammer.html


incomplete scenario. Why would India stop its operations once the nuclear war starts? plus you have left cities like Beijing, Shanghai and mecca out of the ambit of Indian nuclear retaliation

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby darshhan » 25 Sep 2016 22:41

pankajs wrote:Did Bakis announce their intention to attack at uri?
Did the Bakis claim uri attack after the fact?
Did they mass soldiers or line up arty/missiles at the border?

Their mission was executed by a bunch (Porki army or its munnas) in a covert action. So a covert response, if it is delivered, will be exactly what he had promised "I will speak their own language" and fulfill his "I will punish Pakistan". That is my take but each one of us can make his/her own judgement.

As far as his reelection is concerned he will sweep back if it were to be held today. He will be judged mainly on his domestic policy though his response to Porki provocation will pay a small role. Look no further than CON re-election after the Mumbai attack. This is not to suggest that no response be given but mango Indian is very self absorbed and has a short memory.

There are other *greater* risks to his re-election like the OBC/Dalit flareup, regional politics and consolidation against him like in Bihar.


Pankajs, You are making the mistake of mixing a Clandestine operation with a Covert one. let me clarify. There are basically three type of operations.

1. Covert Op : This is completely black. Intent of action as well as identity of sponsor is not known. Can only be guessed.
2. Clandestine Op : Intent and actual execution of operation is not disclosed. But identity of sponsor is known. Eg : Take down of OBL in abottabad. Most war time special ops also fall in this category. So was Uri, Pathankot, Gurdaspur etc.
3. Overt Op : I don't have to explain this one.

So first of all Uri terror attack was hardly a covert op. It was a clandestine operation. We know Pakistan was the sponsor. There is absolutely no doubt on this. What Chandragupta and others are saying that we need similar attacks on Pakistan where it is known that India is the sponsor. Whether they be Clandestine or overt is immaterial.

As far as Namo's reelection is concerned, he might or might not sweep again. It all depends. But if even 2% of his core suppoters take a non active role in campaigning and canvassing besides sitting out the elections, he is in for a very tough time.
Last edited by darshhan on 25 Sep 2016 22:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby tsarkar » 25 Sep 2016 22:43

Amoghvarsha wrote:what are the chances of a Chinese interference if India retaliates?

Quite strong. We lost Jelep La in 1965 and Nathu La was saved by Lt. Gen. Sagat Singh 1965-67.

http://veekay-militaryhistory.blogspot. ... vsm_4.html
In January 1964, Sagat handed over command of 50 Para Brigade to Brigadier A.M.M. Nambiar, and proceeded to attend the fourth course, at the National Defence College, in Delhi. After spending a year on the course, he was posted as Brigadier General Staff 11 Corps, in January 1965. He served in this appointment for just six months, and in July 1965, was promoted Major General, and posted as GOC 17 Mountain Division, replacing Major General Har Prasad. The division was then in Sikkim, and soon after he took over, there was a crisis. In order to help Pakistan during the 1965 War, the Chinese served an ultimatum, and demanded that the Indians withdraw their posts at Nathu La and Jelep La. According to the Corps HQ, the main defences of 17 Mountain Division were at Changgu, while Nathu La was only an observation post. In the adjoining sector, manned by 27 Mountain Division, Jelep La was also considered an observation post, with the main defences located at Lungthu. In case of hostilities, the divisional commanders had been given the authority to vacate the posts, and fall back on the main defences. Accordingly, orders were issued by Corps HQ to both divisions to vacate Nathu La and Jelep La.

Sagat did not agree with the views of the Corps HQ. Nathu La and Jelep La were passes, on the watershed, which was the natural boundary. The MacMahon Line, which India claimed as the International Border, followed the water shed principle, and India and China had gone to war over this issue, three years earlier. Vacating the passes on the watershed would give the Chinese the tactical advantage of observation and fire, into India, while denying the same to our own troops. Nathu La and Jelep La were also important because they were on the trade routes between India and Tibet, and provided the only means of ingress through the Chumbi Valley. Younghusband had used the same route during his expedition, sixty five years earlier, and handing it over to the enemy on a plate was not Sagat's idea of sound military strategy. Sagat also reasoned that the discretion to vacate the posts lay with the divisional commander, and he was not obliged to do so, based on instructions from Corps HQ.

As a result of orders issued by Corps HQ, 27 Mountain Division vacated Jelep La, which the Chinese promptly occupied. However, Sagat refused to vacate Nathu La, and when the Chinese became belligerent, and opened fire, he also opened up with guns and mortars, though there was a restriction imposed by Corps on the use of artillery. Lieut-General (later General) G.G. Bewoor, the Corps Commander, was extremely annoyed, and tried to speak to Sagat, to ask him to explain his actions. But Sagat was not in his HQ, and was with the forward troops. So it was his GSO 1, Lieut Colonel Lakhpat Singh, who bore the brunt of the Corps Commander's wrath.

The Chinese had installed loudspeakers at Nathu La, and warned the Indians that they would suffer as they did in 1962, if they did not withdraw. However, Sagat had carried out a detailed appreciation of the situation, and reached the conclusion that the Chinese were bluffing. They made threatening postures, such as advancing in large numbers, but on reaching the border, always stopped, turned about and withdrew. They also did not use any artillery, for covering fire, which they would have certainly done if they were serious about capturing any Indian positions. Our own defences at Nathu La were strong. Sagat had put artillery observation posts on adjoining high features called Camel's Back and Sebu La, which overlooked into the Yatung valley for several kilometres, and could bring down accurate fire on the enemy, an advantage that the Chinese did not have. It would be a tactical blunder to vacate Nathu La, and gift it to the Chinese. Ultimately, Sagat's fortitude saved the day for India, and his stand was vindicated, two years later, when there was a show down at Nathu La. Today, the strategic pass of Nathu La is still held by Indian troops, while Jelep La is in Chinese hands.

During the crisis, the Chinese had occupied Jelep La, but had gained nothing in the sector under Sagat's division. This was galling, and they continued their pressure on the Indians, and making threatening gestures. In December 1965, the Chinese fired on a patrol of 17 Assam Rifles, in North Sikkim, at a height of 16,000 feet, killing two men. The patrol was in Indian territory, but the Chinese claimed that it had crossed over to their side. They made regular broadcasts from loudspeakers at Nathu La, pointing out to Indian troops the pathetic conditions in which they lived, their low salaries and lack of amenities, comparing these to that of officers. It was a form of psychological warfare in which the Chinese were adept, and had to be countered. Sagat had similar loud speakers installed on our own side, and tape recorded messages, in Chinese language, were broadcast every day. However, he was not satisfied with this, and kept looking for a chance to avenge the death of the Indian soldiers who had fallen to Chinese bullets. Throughout 1966, and early 1967, Chinese propaganda, intimidation and attempted incursions into Indian territory continued. The border was not marked, and there were several vantage points on the crest line which both sides thought belonged to them. Patrols which walked along the border often clashed, resulting in tension, and sometimes even casualties.

In 1967, Sagat discussed the problem with the Corps Commander, Lieut General J.S. Aurora. He suggested that the border at Nathu La should be clearly marked, to prevent such incidents, and offered to walk along the crest line, to test the Chinese resolve. If they did not object, the line along which he walked could be taken to be acceptable to them. This was agreed to, and Sagat, accompanied by an escort, began walking along the crest. The Chinese commander also walked alongside, accompanied by a photographer, who kept taking pictures. However, there was no confrontation, and the 'walk' ended peacefully.

Sagat then obtained the concurrence of the Corps Commander to mark the crest line, along which he had walked. He ordered a double wire fence to be erected, from Nathu La towards the North and South Shoulders. However, as soon as work began on the fence, on 20 August 1967, the Chinese became agitated, and asked the Indians to stop. One strand of wire was laid that day, and two more were added over the next two days. On 6 September, a patrol of 2 Grenadiers, the battalion which was holding defences at Nathula, was going towards the South Shoulder, when it was surrounded by about seventy Chinese, and threatened. The next day, the Chinese physically tried to interfere with the construction of the fence, and there was a scuffle. However, work continued on the next two days, and was almost completed on the 10th.

Since the Chinese appeared determined to prevent completion of the fence, it was decided to start early on 11th, and finish the job before first light. All available manpower, including a platoon of Engineers and another of Pioneers, was deployed for the task. A company of 18 Rajput was also brought in, to reinforce the position, and protect the men who were to construct the fence. As soon as work commenced, the Chinese came upto the fence, and tried to stop the work. There was a heated discussion between the Chinese commander, who was accompanied by the political commissar, and Lieut Colonel Rai Singh, CO 2 Grenadiers. Sagat had foreseen this eventuality, and told Lieut Colonel Rai Singh not to expose himself, and remain in his bunker, where the Brigade Commander, Brigadier M.M.S. Bakshi, was also present. But this was not heeded, and the CO, with an escort, came out in the open, to stand face to face with the Chinese officers. As the arguments became more heated, tempers rose, but both sides stood their ground. Suddenly, the Chinese opened fire, causing several casualties among the troops working on the wire fence. Lieut Colonel Rai Singh was hit by a Chinese bullet, and fell down.

Seeing their CO fall, the Grenadiers became mad with rage. In a fit of fury, they came out of their trenches, and attacked the Chinese post, led by Captain P.S. Dagar. The company of 18 Rajput, under Major Harbhajan Singh, and the Engineers working on the fence had been caught in the open, and suffered a few casualties from the Chinese firing. Realising that the only way to neutralise the Chinese fire was a physical assault, Harbhajan shouted to his men, and led them in a charge on the Chinese position. Several of the Indian troops were mowed down, by Chinese machine guns, but those who reached the Chinese bunkers used their bayonets, and accounted for many of the enemy. Both Harbhajan and Dagar lost their lives in the action, which developed into a full scale battle, lasting three days. Sagat had asked for some medium guns, and these were moved up to Kyangnosa La, at a height of over 10,000 ft. The artillery observation posts, which Sagat had sited earlier, proved their worth in bringing down effective fire on the Chinese. Because of lack of observation, and the steep incline West of Nathu La, most Chinese shells fell behind the forward defences, and did not harm the Indians. At one stage, soon after their CO was wounded, there was a loss of morale in 2 Grenadiers, and some troops occupying the South Shoulder started upsticking. Sagat borrowed a sten from another officer, and with the help of the Subedar Major, pushed the men back into the trenches.

The Indian casualties in the action were just over two hundred - 65 dead and 145 wounded. The Chinese are estimated to have suffered about three hundred casualties. Though the action taken by Sagat, in marking the border with a wire fence, had the approval of higher authorities, the large number of casualties suffered by both sides created a furore. Of course, the casualties to Indian troops would not have occurred if they had remained in their defences, and not exposed themselves by coming out of their trenches and rushing at the Chinese post. This happened on the spur of the moment, because seeing their CO fall, the troops lost their cool, and rushed forward under the orders of a young officer, who lost his life in the action. The Corps Commander, Lieut General J.S. Aurora, visited Nathu La, to assess the situation. Sagat was advised to prevent further escalation of hostilities, and avoid casualties to Indian troops. The Chinese had already announced that it was the Indians who started the conflict, and the large number of Indian bodies, and wounded Indian soldiers, in their possession, seemed to support their claim. However, Sagat was not perturbed. For the last two years, the Chinese had been instigating him, and had killed several Indian soldiers. The specter of Chinese attack, of 1962, still haunted the military and political leadership in India and had prevented them from taking effective action against them. This was the first time the Chinese got a bloody nose, and the myth of their invincibility was broken.


General Bewoor, who ordered cession of Nathu La and Jelep La, was made COAS after SAM Maneckshaw. He was also given an extension to prevent Lt. Gen. Prem Bhagat, VC, to become COAS. Sadly, General Bewoor lacked the moral courage to decline the extension, just like he seceded Jelep La. And was rewarded with a COAS position for it.

Lt. General Sagat Singh has the unique distinction of fighting a two front war in just 6 years (1965-1967-1971). And winning both.

It's a national tragedy that Generals like Prem Bhagat & Sagat Singh were not given their due, and politically pliable generals made COAS instead.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby SwamyG » 25 Sep 2016 22:53

arijitdas, thanks for confirming my thoughts on Ram Madhav. I have spent a few hours watching interviews; and he might not be the best speaker out there; but his convictions are very strong. Right head on the right shoulders, and in the right situation.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 23:00

darshhan wrote:Pankajs, You are making the mistake of mixing a Clandestine operation with a Covert one. let me clarify. There are basically three type of operations.

<snip>

As far as Namo's reelection is concerned, he might or might not sweep again. It all depends. But if even 2% of his core suppoters take a non active role in campaigning and canvassing besides sitting out the elections, he is in for a very tough time.

Ok ... Let go with your definition.

So Bakis executed a "Clandestine Op" and we also respond with a "Clandestine Op" results in significant casualties on their side. No massing of soldiers on the border, no art fire and no missile hits across the border.

So would you then agree that Modi has delivered on his promised of "I will speak their own language" and fulfill his "I will punish Pakistan"? That was and remains my basic point. Some folks are saying that what you call "Clandestine Op" implies that Modi is backing away from his earlier promise.

*Dont-remember-the-name-US-agency" poll as well as the latest India today survey confirms that Modi will be elected if the election were held now. Future is unknown so lets agree he may or may not get elected in GE2019.

But if CON election after 2008 is any indication give folks a 6 months gap with a booming economy and they will forget the attack. That was my simple point. You are free to disagree but the record of the Indian electorate is clear till date but it may change.
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Sep 2016 23:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby SwamyG » 25 Sep 2016 23:03

JwalaMukhi wrote:1) Army will respond.
2) War is not an option.
Both the above statements are for press and gullible ones.
The reality is:
1) India as a whole has to respond. Not just Indian Army.
2) War is already a reality. It is already forced on India. Question is will India continue to be passive recipient of thappads meekly.

Pakistan has been waging a war for a long time now. India has been in the war for a long time, whether people like it or not.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Shivaji » 25 Sep 2016 23:15

Hard hitting piece by Gen. Syed Ata Hasnain on Uri defences:

http://swarajyamag.com/defence/my-hq-wa ... -live-with

Comments by ex-defence personnel make a sad read. However, that is no excuse not to punish Pakis as this would always be work-in-progress.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Aditya G » 25 Sep 2016 23:21

Col Subin Balakrishnan (retd) - ex CO Para SF:

I have been repeatedly asked whether we have the capacity for effecting Special Forces actions across the LoC, and if these shall constitute 'credible response'.

As a professional who has foot-slogged for long and done a thing or two to earn a living in these environments, I know for a fact that the LoC offers more than adequate opportunities for response not just by the SF but also by highly motivated and skilled Infantry units, straddling both the tactical and operational levels. Make no mistake - each of these are much more than just 'ego massages'. The technical and tactical skills of our Special Forces as indeed the will and wherewithal to effect short, sharp actions across the LoC is tested and proven.

What we lack is the political spine and the institutional bandwidth to effect such responses in suitable windows of time and space to amplify their impact on the one hand and the resilience to shape consequence management within reasonable proportions on the other.

In terms of deterrence, the application of a consistent policy to firmly and rapidly effect military response is what shall define character. Each response by itself may not account for much - It should instead be viewed as a sum of its parts. The efficacy of the consistent message delivered by sharp and effective military action as a response mechanism over a period of time is very powerful in shaping and leveraging deterrence as a policy tool.

Of course, in the current context, with over 100 hrs of inaction on the ground and endless bouts of high decibel jingoistic sound bytes from all quarters, we are left with precious little options to effect a reasonably impactful intervention.
I shall be writing a more detailed piece on this shortly.
Col Subin Balakrishnan


The Army adds so much intellectual and field experience. Sadly our national security ecosystem does not make full use of them.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby darshhan » 25 Sep 2016 23:22

pankajs wrote:
darshhan wrote:Pankajs, You are making the mistake of mixing a Clandestine operation with a Covert one. let me clarify. There are basically three type of operations.

<snip>

As far as Namo's reelection is concerned, he might or might not sweep again. It all depends. But if even 2% of his core suppoters take a non active role in campaigning and canvassing besides sitting out the elections, he is in for a very tough time.

Ok ... Let go with your definition.

So Bakis executed a "Clandestine Op" and we also respond with a "Clandestine Op". No massing of soldiers on the border, no art fire and no missile hits across the border. It is executed *similar* to Uri and results in significant casualties on their side.

So would you then agree that Modi has delivered on his promised of "I will speak their own language" and fulfill his "I will punish Pakistan"? That was and remains my basic point. Some folks are saying that what you call "Clandestine Op" implies that Modi is backing away from his earlier promise.

*Dont-remember-the-name-US-agency" poll as well as the latest India today survey confirms that Modi will be elected if the election were held now. Future is unknown so lets agree he may or may not get elected in GE2019.

But if CON election after 2008 is any indication give folks a 6 months gap with a booming economy and they will forget the attack. That was my simple point. You are free to disagree but the record of the Indian electorate is clear till date but it may change.


Pankaj, First of all that is not my definition. You can check here.

Clandestine Op


Secondly it is the people in his core support base who want a response and a response which is known to one and all. That includes yours truly. Clandestine ops should be definitely a part of this response mix. Missile hits and artillery strikes are also important. They do not have to be mutually exclusive.

As far as punishment is concerned, Pakistan will be punished only when it is terminated as a nation state. Anything else is less than punishment. That can only be achieved through a massive and total war. I do understand that preparation of such a war can take 2-3 years. And that is why earlier I had posted a link on Deep operations. I hope Indian Army along with IAF would adopt this or a similar doctrine to finally rid us of Pakistani state.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby pankajs » 25 Sep 2016 23:39

darshhan wrote:Secondly it is the people in his core support base who want a response and a response which is known to one and all. That includes yours truly. Clandestine ops should be definitely a part of this response mix. Missile hits and artillery strikes are also important. They do not have to be mutually exclusive.

As far as punishment is concerned, Pakistan will be punished only when it is terminated as a nation state. Anything else is less than punishment. That can only be achieved through a massive and total war. I do understand that preparation of such a war can take 2-3 years. And that is why earlier I had posted a link on Deep operations. I hope Indian Army along with IAF would adopt this or a similar doctrine to finally rid us of Pakistani state.

No saar ... You are still missing the point. It is not about what he will do or what needs to be done. Please read the message preceding my original. Folks want to hold Modi to his words and they expect an arty barrage or a missile attack in response. All I am saying is that *even* with a *Clandestine ops* he would have *fulfilled* his promise if we are trying to hold him to it. Anything above that is malai and will be gladly accepted but not *central* to his promise.

It will take a lot or very little to take down the Porkis but that depends on their internal situation. We can go for an all-out war in 2-3 years but that will mean we will also take a big hit on many fronts. The other option is to weaken them internally, perhaps a 5-10 year project, and then go for an all out war. In the mean time deal with their provocation as and when it happens with adequate pushback. It will not be pleasant in the long interim but that is the safest and surest way to achieve the end goal with minimum losses all things considered.

I will bet that Modi's plan is long-term and is already in motion but the final Big push will come only towards the end of his 2nd term if he is reelected i.e to say about 5-7 years from now. As Shiv saar has written before war is a risky business and Modi will not launch a Big push till the right environment exists for success.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Christopher Sidor » 25 Sep 2016 23:48

Pratyush wrote:
soumik wrote:Wrote a small scenario on how a surgical strike on the Pakistani military could snowball into a Nuclear war , do read and let me know

http://bengalraider.blogspot.in/2016/09/sledgehammer.html


Not having read it. But you have fallen in the Pakistani game. If you think that Indian surgical strike will lead to nuke was.


And what even if it leads to a nuclear war? we cannot be destroyed by a nuclear war. We are way too big for that. But the same cannot be said of the land of pure. Moreover the benefits of freeing our forces from West so that they concentrate on East once this destruction of Pakistan is achieved is even more mouth watering. Stop shiviring in our boots. And let us not forget Pakistani Nukes are capable of being neutralised even before they are launched by using raids as well taking out their delivery mechanism and by other means.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Shivaji » 25 Sep 2016 23:49

Here is my CT for possible lack of / delay in Indian retaliation:

Nawaz Sharif and Modi seemed to have some kind of understanding on clipping wings of Paki army and denying extension to Paki COAS. They had met on the sidelines of Paris climate summit last year followed by NaMo visiting Pakistan.

Paki army responded by carrying out Pathankot. NaMo did not strike Pakis then as he wanted to show the world that he had tried to mend fence with Pakistan, but Pakistan is the bad-boy. He went on diplomatic offensive after that. Nawaz Sharif, who had been for cordial relations with India, has suddenly started giving aggressive statements after his heart surgery as he was perceived in Pakistan to be toeing Indian line.

If NaMo strikes now with covert raid against ARMY positions, COAS will get an extension making all the understanding between Modi/Nawaz reached earlier useless. In fact Uri operation might be an attempt by bad Shariff to create a situation where he gets an extension.

We may see dipolmatic offensive till November and military retaliation in November. My guess is that if retaliation occurs before November, Paki Navy would be targeted.

In any case retaliation is coming. Delay is not for lack of political will or Indian military is not ready, but NaMo/Doval combine probably wants to game the responses of other disturbances. November, with winter approaching, would limit China factor as well.

Take it FWIW from a newbie.


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