Perspectives on the global economic changes

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Sep 2016 10:44

Bloomberg Interview with Julian Robertson

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-2 ... ain-coming

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Oct 2016 12:06

FoxBusiness: David Stockman On “Wall Street Week”: Get Out of Harms’ Way Now—–The Casino Is Heading For A Crash ( Video )

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/w ... r-a-crash/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Oct 2016 21:20

Neoliberalism and Financial Warfare: Can Russia Learn From Brazil’s Fate?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/neoliberal ... te/5548534

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2016 12:05

Carl Icahn Interview About Economy & Battle w/ Bill Ackman

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Oct 2016 12:22

Paul Singer - Full Interview At Delivering Alpha (Sept 2016)

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Oct 2016 09:39

David Stockman: America Now Lives Under A 'Perverted Regime'

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 03 Oct 2016 18:34

Austin/Neshant et al,
Dont you think buying equities by central banks is in essence a fiscal policy? It the end of monetary policy per se?

IMO, it is. Because the zero rate bounding towards sub zero and money created as a consequence, needs a home- Equities seem the easiest way forward.

I posit- the Dow Jones and NASDAQ will rise even more. Unlike crash expected, I think it should rise even more. IMO DJIA could get to 40,000.

Just curious what is your opinion?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Oct 2016 08:37

मरता क्या न करता , A desperate man leaves nothing to chance.

The central banks know their situation as the proverb describes it , so it is possible they will do this or perhaps stealthily doing as well.

Having said that we don't have a vibrant market in first place the central bank have already taken over long back via ZIRP and QE, so how much of Equities purchase or what ever ponzi scheme they have in mind would lead to success or reach 40 or 50k is any body's guess .

You can't revive what is already in comma and ventilator for many years now. The body eventually frails and decays even if you keep it under life support

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 04 Oct 2016 20:05

Doubling Down

An absurd example of this would be to triple your bet if you've lost 3 times in a row, and if you lose that, to quadruple your bet and so on. All of these illusions are derivatives of the so-called Martingale System, which claims that it is mathematically impossible to lose, given enough money and the willingness of the casino to take the increasing bet. The latter conditions, however, are where reality meets the road. A string of 4, 5 or perhaps 30 straight losses cannot work in the long run because the size of the bets eventually reach billions of dollars.

This same mathematical logic seems to have eluded central bankers around the globe. They are quite simply, employing a Martingale System in the conduct of monetary policy with policy rates now in negative territory for both the ECB and the BOJ — which in turn have led to over $15 trillion of negative yielding developed economy sovereign bonds.

--x--x--x--x-xx

Our financial markets have become a Vegas/Macau/Monte Carlo casino, wagering that an unlimited supply of credit generated by central banks can successfully reflate global economies and reinvigorate nominal GDP growth to lower but acceptable norms in today's highly levered world.

An interesting counter to my Martingale characterization of central bankers is in fact that they do have an unlimited bankroll and that they can bet on the 31st, 32nd, or "whatever it takes" roll of the dice. After all, their cumulative balance sheets have increased by $15 trillion+ since the Great Recession. Why not $16 trillion more and then 20 or 30? They print for free, do they not, and actually they make money for themselves and their constituent banks in the process. Why not? Why is there a limit for them as opposed to an individual gambler? If future inflation is the problem, then markets must know that that is their goal and what the increasing bets are geared to do. They are some distance from their 2% or 2+% targets so stay in the casino and keep printin'!
---x---x--x--x--x--
At some point investors — leery and indeed weary of receiving negative or near zero returns on their money, may at the margin desert the standard financial complex, for higher returning or better yet, less risky alternatives. Bitcoin and privately agreed upon block chain technologies amongst a small set of global banks, are just a few examples of attempts to stabilize the value of their current assets in future purchasing power terms. Gold would be another example — historic relic that it is. In any case, the current system is beginning to be challenged.

Ultimately though, in broader more subjective terms, it is capitalism itself that is threatened by the ongoing Martingale strategies of central banks. As central bank purchases grow, and negative/zero interest rate policies persist, they will increasingly inhibit capitalism from carrying out its primary function — the effective allocation of resources based upon return relative to risk.

--x--x--x--x--x

Central bankers have fostered a casino like atmosphere where savers/investors are presented with a Hobson's Choice, or perhaps a more damaging Sophie's Choice of participating (or not) in markets previously beyond prior imagination. Investors/savers are now scrappin' like mongrel dogs for tidbits of return at the zero bound. This cannot end well.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Oct 2016 10:08

Here's Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Oct 2016 10:13

pandu , neshant pls watch this

Rick Santelli on CNBC 9/30/2016

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Oct 2016 10:34

Pandu , Rick Santelli says if Central Bank has to take permission from congress if they have to invest in Equities and Market and that will be interesting conversation

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 06 Oct 2016 03:51

Pretty sure central banks can do just about anything they want without permission.

That is the outcome of 2008 where they used the opportunity to transfer as much power from elected govts to themselves.

The move is now afoot to transfer that power further up the (unaccountable & unelected) hierarchy to the international level (IMF) where a citizen's vote in any one country has zero effect.

Central banking and banking in general is a scam, not an industry producing anything of value. Since it produces nothing of value, it has to steal value from those who do produce value in society.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Oct 2016 10:44

Peter Schiff and Rick Santelli on CNBC 10/5/2016

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 06 Oct 2016 15:53

Rick Santelli?
http://www.salon.com/2014/07/15/paul_kr ... the_poors/

It’s impossible for you to have been more wrong, Rick. Your call for inflation, the destruction of the dollar, the failure of the US economy to rebound. Rick, it’s impossible for you to have been more wrong. Every single bit of advice you gave would have lost people money, Rick. Lost people money, Rick. Every single bit of advice. There is no piece of advice that you’ve given that’s worked, Rick. There is no piece of advice that you’ve given that’s worked, Rick. Not a single one. Not a single one, Rick. The higher interest rates never came, the inability of the U.S. to sell bonds never happened, the dollar never crashed, Rick. There isn’t a single one that’s worked for you.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Oct 2016 16:34

^^ Paul Krugman belongs to the current system which is led by Fed , he would criticize any one who would criticize the Fed or the economy

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 06 Oct 2016 17:00

The quoted part is not from Krugman, it is from Steve Liesman.
Question is not Krugman's or Liesman's beliefs, it is: on what occasions did Rick Santelli make correct predictions?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Oct 2016 17:05

^^ What is wrong about what he is saying in this video ?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6655&start=3280#p2053871

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 06 Oct 2016 17:19

There will be no crash, ground is being prepared to raise fiscal deficit to raise inflation. This will make rich super rich and middle class back into serfs but who cares? I think Banking Industry is fully prepared to set the clock back on French Revolution.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Oct 2016 20:08

Gyan wrote:There will be no crash, ground is being prepared to raise fiscal deficit to raise inflation. This will make rich super rich and middle class back into serfs but who cares? I think Banking Industry is fully prepared to set the clock back on French Revolution.

No one can just keep increasing debt or inflation or interest without consequences in one way or the other.

Only time will tell where this will lead us to

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 07 Oct 2016 15:01

World wide currency devaluation like the "stealth" devaluation of the pound currently ongoing and soon to be the devaluation through the (worthless) SDR toilet paper flodding the market while simultaneously trying to suppress the price of gold is what we are going to see. They hope to make it as swift as possible so savers get robbed as quickly as possible before the herd clues in.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Oct 2016 15:14

Max Keiser has two part report in interview with David Stockman and other thing.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Oct 2016 15:21

Jim Rickards new book has come and his interview with Max Keisar starts at 12:00 , Very interesting interview , He says every thing will be elevated to IMF SDR and these are already documented in fine prints and laws passed , Watch the interview

Keiser Report Bubble economy sins

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 09 Oct 2016 21:11

Austin,
After SDR, what?

I do not trust Rickards, though what he says is always interesting.

SDR is just a unit of account. Though Chinese have issued SDR bonds denominated in Yuan, it does not make SDR a medium of exchange.

I do not understand why the USG cant print more money. Rickards says elsewhere because the US Treasury are prevented by the constitution as they have given only so much gold to the Fed in exchange of dollar bonds.

US could raise the gold price from current $42.20 per oz on their balance sheet to 10,000. It would recapitalise the USG. I agree. But it will lead to loss of confidence in USD.

Usually long dollar is balanced by short gold. SO dollar is inversely related to gold. If gold rises, dollar falls precipitously. As this is a confidence game, the dollar looses it 'as good as gold' moniker. It has not been related to gold since 1971. But wont people think, wont governments globally think- dollar is not as good as gold. Why not hold gold itself? Why hold dollars? If the eurodollar market (dollars residing overseas) dies, so does the exorbitant privilege of US to run perpetual deficits.

Look at what is happening to the pound. It will be repeated in the dollar.

In short, what after SDR? SDR is at best a sticking plaster.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Oct 2016 21:40

^^ If SDR is sticking plaster then they would continue with it for as long as it works for them , Why would they be really bothered what comes after SDR till they are forced by circumstances to think and act about post SDR world

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Oct 2016 21:41

David Stockman-Trumped! A Nation On The Brink Of Ruin & How to Bring It Back

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 09 Oct 2016 22:03

Interest rates won't go anywhere higher as long as there are buyers for US Treasury bonds at the existing near-zero rates. Why on earth would USGovt pay anything more than the absolute minimum as interest on the debt they issue? It is good practice is to keep the "yield curve" (yield vs maturity) in a non-inverted state - i.e. longer term interest rates should be higher than shorter term interest rates. If long term rates are in the 1-2% ballpark (i.e. enough bakras willing to get miniscule returns to save their wealth), the Fed is well within its rights to keep short term rates near zero.

US is still king; USD is still king, neither are going away anywhere. Yes there is visible degradation of the USD's purchasing power, but rumours of its demise are entirely premature. Enough money is being pumped in through QE and through transfers from places like China to keep the US economy floating/bubble from popping. There is some detriment to the USD, but it is both manageable and desirable (desirable because it reduces the real cost of defined benefits such as pension and social security - yes pensioners are getting screwed).

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 10 Oct 2016 17:01

People are buying negative yield bonds because they sense the entire leveraged pyramid scheme is about to implode.
Central bank prescriptions of money printing, market rigging, inflating and getting govt to run up mountainous debt has ruined the economy. Central banking is beginning to look like snake oil salesmanship.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 20:44

^^ I will watch the video today

David Stockman Unplugged: ‘Casino Capitalism Fueling Mutant Markets’

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Oct 2016 19:06

Red alert: Prepare for severe stock market crash, warns HSBC

The technical analysis team at HSBC is warning recent stock market moves look eerily similar to just before 1987’s ‘Black Monday’, which saw the largest one-day market crash in history.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average which comprises the 30 large US publicly traded companies, lost 22.6 percent of its value.

In a note to clients released Wednesday, Murray Gunn, the head of technical analysis for HSBC, said he was on red alert for an imminent sell-off in stocks in the light of the price action over the past few weeks.

"With the US stock market selling off aggressively on October 11, we now issue a RED ALERT. The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high," Gunn wrote.

Other financial firms have also issued red alert warnings. Citigroup told clients that investors aren't adequately hedging US election risk. The managing director at Citi Thomas Fitzpatrick has also pointed at the market's similarities to the 1987 crash.

The volatility has continued to rise since the end of the summer and the recent sell-off was seen across many areas of the market, and not just selected groups, according to the HSBC analyst.

Last month, Gunn warned stocks were under an "orange alert." Following the Dow Jones’ 200-point decline on Tuesday, Gunn threw up the ultimate warning signal, saying the drop is here.

The key levels that HSBC team is watching are 17,992 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 2,116 in the S&P 500.

"As long as those levels remain intact, the bulls still have a slight hope. But should those levels break and the markets close below, which now seems more likely, it would be a clear sign that the bears have taken over and are starting to feast,” Gunn said.

“The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high," he added.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Oct 2016 19:07

I would like to think if Hillary wins which she would likely , The stocks would go into another all time high as markets are anticipating it.

kit · Post by **kit** » 13 Oct 2016 19:26

http://m.thenational.ae/business/econom ... e-currency

kit · Post by **kit** » 13 Oct 2016 19:26

The dollar seems to be edged out ...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Oct 2016 23:51

Bubble building up! Global bond markets headed for a crash: Swaminathan Aiyar

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... 808646.cms

salaam · Post by **salaam** » 14 Oct 2016 23:59

Austin wrote:I would like to think if Hillary wins which she would likely , The stocks would go into another all time high as markets are anticipating it.

Her win is already built in. Will be typical sell on news. Problem is where to put the money

, stock and bond both look weak. Started going into cash 2 months back. How much more can I sit on a very small money sham.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Oct 2016 12:11

salaam wrote:
Austin wrote:I would like to think if Hillary wins which she would likely , The stocks would go into another all time high as markets are anticipating it.
Her win is already built in. Will be typical sell on news. Problem is where to put the money , stock and bond both look weak. Started going into cash 2 months back. How much more can I sit on a very small money sham.

Keep cash and buy physical metal like gold and silver , as long as you can keep them safe with you

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 16 Oct 2016 03:24

China And India Are Getting Ahead Of Japan
http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdo ... 81ee9749e8

hina and India are getting ahead of Japan in two key competitiveness indicators – the ability to attract and retain talent. That’s one of the key findings of the 2016-17 International Competitiveness report (World Economic Forum), which ranks China 22 and India 23 in the capacity to attract talent – well ahead of Japan, which ranks 77. Also, China and India rank ahead of Japan in the capacity to retain talent—see table.
Country Capacity to attract talent Capacity to retain talent
Japan 77 38
China 23 33
India 22 32
There are a couple of good explanations for that. First, talent is highly mobile. And it goes where growth and opportunity is. In the last couple of decades, China and India have been growing at near double-digit rates, while Japan has been floundering in the swamp of stagnation.In addition, China has been heavily investing in attracting foreign talent to upgrade its universities, which have been gaining in world ranks in recent reviews.At the same time, China is home of companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Lenovo, which are expanding their presence in global markets.India, on the other hand, has been attracting foreign giants, like Amazon, which have been setting up research centers to tap into the country’s pool of software engineers and programmers, as its own companies continue to internationalize their operations.Japan’s inability to attract foreign talent comes in spite of repeated calls from government officials. “We have to import many intelligent people from abroad,” said Tokyo Gov. Yoichi Masuzoe at a press conference recently. “We badly need young talented persons.”

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 16 Oct 2016 09:56

The reason nobody will want to go to Japan is because #1 they don't speak English, the country is xenophobic and the lifestyle there of all work and no fun deters any young person. Also how do you rise up a company ladder if all guys sitting up top are Japanese? Not that anyone except goras rise up the corporate ladder to management, CEOs and beyond in NA/Europe either, mind you. Also they are not likely to accept darker skinned people into their neighbourhoods, work force and some cases even stores, hotels & restaurants.

Only a few types of guys are going to Japan :

1) Goras dreaming of nailing Sailor Moon type submissive girls
2) Guys into Japanese culture (see #1)
3) Wierdos reading manga comics, playing pokemon, doing karate n sh&t (see #1 and #2)
4) Western people looking to teach English as they are not really qualified for any white collar job in their own country.
5) Desperate Filipinos and other poor people from Asia looking to do menial work for long hours and get treated like dirt.

I have a theory that China is promoting hostilities with Japan as they don't want a brain drain taking place from China to Japan..

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Oct 2016 10:37

I am not sure if Japan even has an economy with endless QE getting no result and a Public Debt of 230 % of GDP , the only reason Japan has not collapsed is because of its association with Atlantica economy propped by Fed.

Japan must be a dream economy for every Kenesian out there it will give them hope

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Oct 2016 10:44

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